13

Ocean Acidification and Other

Ocean Changes
KEY FINDINGS
1. The world’s oceans have absorbed about 93% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas warming
since the mid-20th century, making them warmer and altering global and regional climate feedbacks.
Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s and surface waters have warmed by
about 1.3° ± 0.1°F (0.7° ± 0.08°C) per century globally since 1900 to 2016. Under a higher scenario, a
global increase in average sea surface temperature of 4.9° ± 1.3°F (2.7° ± 0.7°C) by 2100 is projected,
with even higher changes in some U.S. coastal regions. (Very high confidence)

2. The potential slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; of which the
Gulf Stream is one component)—as a result of increasing ocean heat content and freshwater driven
buoyancy changes—could have dramatic climate feedbacks as the ocean absorbs less heat and CO2
from the atmosphere. This slowing would also affect the climates of North America and Europe. Any
slowing documented to date cannot be directly tied to anthropogenic forcing primarily due to lack of
adequate observational data and to challenges in modeling ocean circulation changes. Under a higher
scenario (RCP8.5) in CMIP5 simulations, the AMOC weakens over the 21st century by 12% to 54%
(low confidence).

3. The world’s oceans are currently absorbing more than a quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmo-
sphere annually from human activities, making them more acidic (very high confidence), with potential
detrimental impacts to marine ecosystems. In particular, higher-latitude systems typically have a
lower buffering capacity against pH change, exhibiting seasonally corrosive conditions sooner than
low-latitude systems. Acidification is regionally increasing along U.S. coastal systems as a result of
upwelling (for example, in the Pacific Northwest) (high confidence), changes in freshwater inputs (for
example, in the Gulf of Maine) (medium confidence), and nutrient input (for example, in agricultural
watersheds and urbanized estuaries) (high confidence). The rate of acidification is unparalleled in at
least the past 66 million years (medium confidence). Under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), the global
average surface ocean acidity is projected to increase by 100% to 150% (high confidence).

4. Increasing sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels, and changing patterns of precipitation, winds,
nutrients, and ocean circulation are contributing to overall declining oxygen concentrations at inter-
mediate depths in various ocean locations and in many coastal areas. Over the last half century, major
oxygen losses have occurred in inland seas, estuaries, and in the coastal and open ocean (high confi-
dence). Ocean oxygen levels are projected to decrease by as much as 3.5% under the higher scenario
(RCP8.5) by 2100 relative to preindustrial values (high confidence).

Recommended Citation for Chapter

Jewett, L. and A. Romanou, 2017: Ocean acidification and other ocean changes. In: Climate Science Spe-
cial Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J.
Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC,
USA, pp. 364-392, doi: 10.7930/J0QV3JQB.

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

13.0 A Changing Ocean warming can be documented and compared

Anthropogenic perturbations to the global between particular regions, ocean basins, and
Earth system have included important alter- depths. However, for years prior to the 1970s,
ations in the chemical composition, tempera- estimates of ocean uptake are confined to the
ture, and circulation of the oceans. Some of upper ocean (up to 700 m) due to sparse spa-
these changes will be distinguishable from the tial and temporal coverage and limited ver-
background natural variability in nearly half tical capabilities of many of the instruments
of the global open ocean within a decade, with in use. OHC estimates are improved for time
important consequences for marine ecosys- periods after 1970 with increased sampling
tems and their services.1 However, the time- coverage and depth.4, 8 Estimates of OHC have
frame for detection will vary depending on been calculated going back to the 1950s us-
the parameter featured.2, 3 ing averages over longer time intervals (i.e.,
decadal or 5-year intervals) to compensate for
13.1 Ocean Warming sparse data distributions, allowing for clear
13.1.1 General Background long-term trends to emerge (e.g., Levitus et al.
Approximately 93% of excess heat energy 20127).
trapped since the 1970s has been absorbed
into the oceans, lessening atmospheric warm- From 1960 to 2015, OHC significantly in-
ing and leading to a variety of changes in creased for both 0–700 and 700–2,000 m
ocean conditions, including sea level rise and depths, for a total ocean warming of about
ocean circulation (see Ch. 2: Physical Driv- 33.5 ± 7.0 × 1022 J (a net heating of 0.37 ± 0.08
ers of Climate Change, Ch. 6: Temperature W/m2; Figure 13.1).6 During this period,
Change, and Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise in this there is evidence of an acceleration of ocean
report).1, 4 This is the result of the high heat ca- warming beginning in 1998,9 with a total
pacity of seawater relative to the atmosphere, heat increase of about 15.2 × 1022 J.6 Robust
the relative area of the ocean compared to the ocean warming occurs in the upper 700 m
land, and the ocean circulation that enables and is slow to penetrate into the deep ocean.
the transport of heat into deep waters. This However, the 700–2,000 m depths constitute
large heat absorption by the oceans moderates an increasing portion of the total ocean ener-
the effects of increased anthropogenic green- gy budget as compared to the surface ocean
house emissions on terrestrial climates while (Figure 13.1).6 The role of the deep ocean
altering the fundamental physical properties (below 2,000 m [6,600 ft]) in ocean heat uptake
of the ocean and indirectly impacting chem- remains uncertain, both in the magnitude but
ical properties such as the biological pump also the sign of the uptake.10, 11 Penetration
through increased stratification.1, 5 Although of surface waters to the deep ocean is a slow
upper ocean temperature varies over short- process, which means that while it takes only
and medium timescales (for example, seasonal about a decade for near-surface temperatures
and regional patterns), there are clear long- to respond to increased heat energy, the deep
term increases in surface temperature and ocean will continue to warm, and as a result
ocean heat content over the past 65 years.4, 6, 7 sea levels will rise for centuries to millennia
even if all further emissions cease.4
13.1.2 Ocean Heat Content
Ocean heat content (OHC) is an ideal variable
to monitor changing climate as it is calculat-
ed using the entire water column, so ocean

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

15

10

Ocean heat content (1022 Joules)

5

−5

−10

−15

−20
0−700m
−25 700−2000m
0−2000m
−30

−35
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Figure 13.1: Global Ocean heat content change time series. Ocean heat content from 0 to 700 m (blue), 700 to 2,000
m (red), and 0 to 2,000 m (dark gray) from 1955 to 2015 with an uncertainty interval of ±2 standard deviations shown
in shading. All time series of the analysis performed by Cheng et al.6 are smoothed by a 12-month running mean filter,
relative to the 1997–2005 base period. (Figure source: Cheng et al. 20176).

Several sources have documented warming in ity in ocean heat uptake is mostly attributed
all ocean basins from 0–2,000 m depths over the to ENSO phases (with El Niños warming and
past 50 years (Figure 13.2).6, 7, 12 Annual fluctu- La Niñas cooling). For instance, La Niña con-
ations in surface temperatures and OHC are ditions over the past decade have led to colder
attributed to the combination of a long-term ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical
secular trend and decadal and smaller time Pacific.6, 8, 9, 16 For the Pacific and Indian Oceans,
scale variations, such as the Pacific Decadal Os- the decadal shifts are primarily observed in
cillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal the upper 350 m depth, likely due to shallow
Oscillation (AMO) (Ch. 5: Circulation & Vari- subtropical circulation, leading to an abrupt
ability; Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise).13, 14 The trans- increase of OHC in the Indian Ocean carried
port of heat to the deep ocean is likely linked to by the Indonesian throughflow from the Pacific
the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Over- Ocean over the last decade.9 Although there is
turning Circulation (see Section 13.2.1), where natural variability in ocean temperature, there
the Atlantic and Southern Ocean accounts for remain clear increasing trends due to anthropo-
the dominant portion of total OHC change at genic influences.
the 700–2,000 m depth.6, 8, 9, 15 Decadal variabil-

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

20
Indian Ocean
15 North Atlantic
Tropical/subtropical Atlantic
10 North Pacific

OHC (0–2000 m) 1022 J

Tropical/subtropical Pacific
Southern oceans
5

−5

−10

−15

1960 1900 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure 13.2: Ocean heat content changes from 1960 to 2015 for different ocean basins for 0 to 2,000 m depths. Time
series is relative to the 1997–1999 base period and smoothed by a 12-month running filter by Cheng et al.6 The curves
are additive, and the ocean heat content changes in different ocean basins are shaded in different colors (Figure
source: Cheng et al. 20176).

13.1.3 Sea Surface Temperature and U.S. Regional increased high ocean temperature anomalies.
Warming SST in the Northeast has warmed faster than
In addition to OHC, sea surface temperature 99% of the global ocean since 2004, and a peak
(SST) measurements are widely available. temperature for the region in 2012 was part of
SST measurements are useful because 1) the a large “ocean heat wave” in the Northwest
measurements have been taken over 150 years Atlantic that persisted for nearly 18 months.20,
(albeit using different platforms, instruments, 21
Projections indicate that the Northeast will
and depths through time); 2) SST reflects the continue to warm more quickly than other
lower boundary condition of the atmosphere; ocean regions through the end of the cen-
and 3) SST can be used to predict specific tury.22 In the Northwest, a resilient ridge of
regional impacts of global warming on ter- high pressure over the North American West
restrial and coastal systems.15, 17, 18 Globally, Coast suppressed storm activity and mixing,
surface ocean temperatures have increased by which intensified heat in the upper ocean in a
1.3° ± 0.1°F (0.70° ± 0.08°C) per century from phenomenon known as “The Blob”.23 Anom-
1900 to 2016 for the Extended Reconstructed alously warm waters persisted in the coastal
Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST v4) waters of the Alaskan and Pacific Northwest
record.19 All U.S. coastal waters have warmed from 2013 until 2015. Under a higher scenario
by more than 0.7°F (0.4°C) over this period (RCP8.5), SSTs are projected to increase by an
as shown in both Table 13.1 and Chapter 6: additional 4.9°F (2.7°C) by 2100 (Figure 13.3),
Temperature Change, Figure 6.6. During the whereas for a lower scenario (RCP4.5) the SST
past 60 years, the rates of increase of SSTs for increase would be 2.3°F (1.3°C).24 In all U.S.
the coastal waters of three U.S. regions were coastal regions, the warming since 1901 is
above the global average rate. These includ- detectable compared to natural variability and
ed the waters around Alaska, the Northeast, attributable to anthropogenic forcing, accord-
and the Southwest (Table 13.1). Over the ing to an analysis of the CMIP5 models (Ch. 6:
last decade, some regions have experienced Temperature Change, Figure 6.5).

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

Table 13.1. Historical sea surface temperature trends (°C per century) and projected
trends by 2080 (°C) for eight U.S. coastal regions and globally. Historical temperature
trends are presented for the 1900–2016 and 1950–2016 periods with 95% confidence
level, observed using the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4
(ERSSTv4).19 Global and regional predictions are calculated for lower and higher scenarios
(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) with 80% spread of all the CMIP5 members compared
to the 1976–2005 period.151 The historical trends were analyzed for the latitude and longi-
tude in the table, while the projected trends were analyzed for the California Current in-
stead of the Northwest and Southwest separately and for the Bering Sea in Alaska (NOAA).
Projected Trend
Latitude and Historical Trend
Region 2080 (relative to
Longitude (°C/100 years)
1976–2005 climate) (°C)
1900–2016 1950–2016 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Global 0.70 ± 0.08 1.00 ± 0.11 1.3 ± 0.6 2.7 ± 0.7

50°–66°N,
Alaska 0.82 ± 0.26 1.22 ± 0.59 2.5 ± 0.6 3.7 ± 1.0
150°–170°W
Northwest 40°–50°N,
0.64 ± 0.30 0.68 ± 0.70
(NW) 120°–132°W
1.7 ± 0.4 2.8 ± 0.6
Southwest 30°–40°N,
0.73 ± 0.33 1.02 ± 0.79
(SW) 116°–126°W
18°–24°N,
Hawaii (HI) 0.58 ± 0.19 0.46 ± 0.39 1.6 ± 0.4 2.8 ± 0.6
152°–162°W
36°–46°N,
Northeast (NE) 0.63 ± 0.31 1.10 ± 0.71 2.0 ± 0.3 3.2 ± 0.6
64°–76°W
24°–34°N,
Southeast (SE) 0.40 ± 0.18 0.13 ± 0.34 1.6 ± 0.3 2.7 ± 0.4
64°–80°W
Gulf of Mexico 20°–30°N,
0.52 ± 0.14 0.37 ± 0.27 1.6 ± 0.3 2.8 ± 0.3
(GOM) 80°–96°W
10°–20°N,
Caribbean 0.76 ± 0.15 0.77 ± 0.32 1.5 ± 0.4 2.6 ± 0.3
66°–86°W

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes
CMIP5 ENSMN
CMIP5 ENSMN RCP8.5 Anomaly
RCP8.5 Anomaly
(2050–2099)–(1956–2005)
(2050–2099)−(1956–2005)

°C

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3
Figure 13.3: Projected changes in sea surface temperature (°C) for the coastal United States under the higher scenar-
io (RCP8.5). Projected anomalies for the 2050–2099 period are calculated using a comparison from the average sea
surface temperatures over 1956–2005. Projected changes are examined using the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of model simulations. (Figure source: NOAA).

13.1.4 Ocean Heat Feedback deep ocean through the Atlantic Meridional
The residual heat not taken up by the oceans Overturning Circulation.29 Ocean heat uptake
increases land surface temperatures (approx- therefore represents an important feedback
imately 3%) and atmospheric temperatures that will have a significant influence on future
(approximately 1%), and melts both land and shifts in climate (see Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of
sea ice (approximately 3%), leading to sea Climate Change).
level rise (see Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise).4, 6, 25 The
meltwater from land and sea ice amplifies
13.2 Ocean Circulation
further subsurface ocean warming and ice 13.2.1 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
shelf melting, primarily due to increased ther- The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circula-
mal stratification, which reduces the ocean’s tion (AMOC) refers to the three-dimensional,
efficiency in transporting heat to deep waters.4 time-dependent circulation of the Atlantic
Surface ocean stratification has increased Ocean, which has been a high priority top-
by about 4% during the period 1971–201026 ic of study in recent decades. The AMOC
due to thermal heating and freshening from plays an important role in climate through
increased freshwater inputs (precipitation its transport of heat, freshwater, and carbon
and evaporation changes and land and sea ice (e.g., Johns et al. 2011;30 McDonagh et al.
melting). The increase of ocean stratification 2015;31 Talley et al. 201632). AMOC-associated
will contribute to further feedback of ocean poleward heat transport substantially con-
warming and, indirectly, mean sea level. In tributes to North American and continental
addition, increases in stratification are associ- European climate (see Ch. 5: Circulation and
ated with suppression of tropical cyclone in- Variability). The Gulf Stream, in contrast to
tensification,27 retreat of the polar ice sheets,28 other western boundary currents, is expected
and reductions of the convective mixing at to slow down because of the weakening of
higher latitudes that transports heat to the the AMOC, which would impact the Euro-

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

pean climate.33 Variability in the AMOC has els predict a 20% weakening of the AMOC
been attributed to wind forcing on intra-an- during the first half of the 21st century and a
nual time scales and to geostrophic forces on stabilization and slight recovery after that.44
interannual to decadal timescales.34 Increased The projected slowdown of the AMOC will
freshwater fluxes from melting Arctic Sea and be counteracted by the warming of the deep
land ice can weaken open ocean convection ocean (below 700 m [2,300 ft]), which will
and deep-water formation in the Labrador tend to strengthen the AMOC.45 The situa-
and Irminger Seas, which could weaken the tion is further complicated due to the known
AMOC (Ch. 11: Arctic Changes; also see Ch. bias in coupled climate models related to the
5, Section 5.2.3: North Atlantic Oscillation and direction of the salinity transport in models
Northern Annular Mode).29, 33 versus observations, which is an indicator of
AMOC stability (e.g., Drijhout et al. 2011;46
While one recent study has suggested that the Bryden et al. 2011;47 Garzoli et al. 201342). Some
AMOC has slowed since preindustrial times29 argue that coupled climate models should
and another suggested slowing on faster time be corrected for this known bias and that
scales,35 there is at present insufficient obser- AMOC variations could be even larger than
vational evidence to support a finding of long the gradual decrease most models predict if
term slowdown of AMOC strength over the the AMOC were to shut down completely and
20th century4 or within the last 50 years34 as “flip states”.48 Any AMOC slowdown could
decadal ocean variability can obscure long- result in less heat and CO2 absorbed by the
term trends. Some studies show long-term ocean from the atmosphere, which is a posi-
trends,36, 37 but the combination of sparse data tive feedback to climate change (also see Ch. 2:
and large seasonal variability may also lead Physical Drivers of Climate Change).49, 50, 51
to incorrect interpretations (e.g., Kanzow
et al. 201038). Several recent high resolution 13.2.2 Changes in Salinity Structure
modeling studies constrained with the limit- As a response to warming, increased atmo-
ed existing observational data39 and/or with spheric moisture leads to stronger evapora-
reconstructed freshwater fluxes40 suggest that tion or precipitation in terrestrial and oceanic
the recently observed AMOC slowdown at environments and melting of land and sea ice.
26°N (off the Florida coast) since 2004 (e.g., as Approximately 80% of precipitation/evapo-
described in Smeed et al. 201435) is mainly due ration events occur over the ocean, leading to
to natural variability, and that anthropogenic patterns of higher salt content or freshwater
forcing has not yet caused a significant AMOC anomalies and changes in ocean circulation
slowdown. In addition, direct observations of (see Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change
the AMOC in the South Atlantic fail to unam- and Ch. 6: Temperature Change).52 Over 1950–
biguously demonstrate anthropogenic trends 2010, average global amplification of the sur-
(e.g., Dong et al. 2015;41 Garzoli et al. 201342). face salinity pattern amounted to 5.3%; where
fresh regions in the ocean became fresher and
Under a higher scenario (RCP8.5) in CMIP5 salty regions became saltier.53 However, the
simulations, it is very likely that the AMOC long-term trends of these physical and chemi-
will weaken over the 21st century. The project- cal changes to the ocean are difficult to isolate
ed decline ranges from 12% to 54%,43 with the from natural large-scale variability. In partic-
range width reflecting substantial uncertainty ular, ENSO displays particular salinity and
in quantitative projections of AMOC behavior. precipitation/evaporation patterns that skew
In lower scenarios (like RCP4.5), CMIP5 mod- the trends. More research and data are neces-

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

sary to better model changes to ocean salinity. IPCC 2013 concluded that there is low con-
Several models have shown a similar spatial fidence in the current understanding of how
structure of surface salinity changes, including eastern upwelling systems will be altered
general salinity increases in the subtropical under future climate change because of the ob-
gyres, a strong basin-wide salinity increase scuring role of multidecadal climate variabil-
in the Atlantic Ocean, and reduced salinity in ity.26 However, subsequent studies show that
the western Pacific warm pools and the North by 2100, upwelling is predicted to start earlier
Pacific subpolar regions.52, 53 There is also a in the year, end later, and intensify in three of
stronger distinction between the upper salty the four major eastern boundary upwelling
thermocline and fresh intermediate depth systems (not in the California Current).61 In
through the century. The regional changes in the California Current, upwelling is projected
salinity to ocean basins will have an overall to intensify in spring but weaken in summer,
impact on ocean circulation and net primary with changes emerging from the envelope of
production, leading to corresponding carbon natural variability primarily in the second half
export (see Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate of the 21st century.62 Southern Ocean upwell-
Change). In particular, the freshening of the ing will intensify while the Atlantic equato-
Arctic Ocean due to melting of land and sea rial upwelling systems will weaken.57, 61 The
ice can lead to buoyancy changes which could intensification is attributed to the strength-
slow down the AMOC (see Section 13.2.1). ening of regional coastal winds as observa-
tions already show,58 and model projections
13.2.3 Changes in Upwelling under the higher scenario (RCP8.5) estimate
Significant changes to ocean stratification and wind intensifying near poleward boundaries
circulation can also be observed regionally, (including northern California Current) and
along the eastern ocean boundaries and at the weakening near equatorward boundaries (in-
equator. In these areas, wind-driven upwell- cluding southern California Current) for the
ing brings colder, nutrient- and carbon-rich 21st century.61, 63
water to the surface; this upwelled water is
more efficient in heat and anthropogenic CO2
13.3 Ocean Acidification
uptake. There is some evidence that coastal 13.3.1 General Background
upwelling in mid- to high-latitude eastern In addition to causing changes in climate,
boundary regions has increased in intensity increasing atmospheric levels of carbon di-
and/or frequency,54 but in more tropical areas oxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels
of the western Atlantic, such as in the Carib- and other human activities, including chang-
bean Sea, it has decreased between 1990 and es in land use, have a direct effect on ocean
2010.55, 56 This has led to a decrease in primary carbonate chemistry that is termed ocean
productivity in the southern Caribbean Sea.55 acidification.64, 65 Surface ocean waters absorb
Within the continental United States, the Cali- part of the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere,
fornia Current is experiencing fewer (by about which causes a variety of chemical changes in
23%–40%) but stronger upwelling events.57, 58, seawater: an increase in the partial pressure
59
Stronger offshore upwelling combined with of CO2 (pCO2,sw), dissolved inorganic carbon
cross-shelf advection brings nutrients from (DIC), and the concentration of hydrogen and
the deeper ocean but also increased offshore bicarbonate ions and a decrease in the concen-
transport.60 The net nutrient load in the coastal tration of carbonate ions (Figure 13.4). In brief,
regions is responsible for increased productiv- CO2 is an acid gas that combines with water
ity and ecosystem function. to form carbonic acid, which then dissociates

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

to hydrogen and bicarbonate ions. Increasing surface waters have become 30% more acidic
concentrations of seawater hydrogen ions over the last 150 years as they have absorbed
result in a decrease of carbonate ions through large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere,66
their conversion to bicarbonate ions. The con- and anthropogenically sourced CO2 is gradu-
centration of carbonate ions in seawater affects ally invading into oceanic deep waters. Since
saturation states for calcium carbonate com- the preindustrial period, the oceans have ab-
pounds, which many marine species use to sorbed approximately 29% of all CO2 emitted
build their shells and skeletons. Ocean acidity to the atmosphere.67 Oceans currently absorb
refers to the concentration of hydrogen ions in about 26% of the human-caused CO2 anthro-
ocean seawater regardless of ocean pH, which pogenically emitted into the atmosphere.67
is fundamentally basic (e.g., pH > 7). Ocean

Carbon Dioxide
400
375
Air
ppm

350
325 Sea
300
8.15 270
8.10 260

CO32−(µmol/kg)
8.05 250
8.00 240
pH

7.95 230
7.90 220
7.85
210
7.80 *calculated from discrete water samples
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Figure 13.4: Trends in surface (< 50 m) ocean carbonate chemistry calculated from observations obtained at the
Hawai‘i Ocean Time-series (HOT) Program in the North Pacific over 1988–2015. The upper panel shows the linked
increase in atmospheric (red points) and seawater (blue points) CO2 concentrations. The bottom panel shows a de-
cline in seawater pH (black points, primary y-axis) and carbonate ion concentration (green points, secondary y-axis).
Ocean chemistry data were obtained from the Hawai‘i Ocean Time-series Data Organization & Graphical System
(HOT-DOGS, http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot-dogs/index.html). (Figure source: NOAA).

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

13.3.2 Open Ocean Acidification Coast waters.76 Coastal waters can episodically
Surface waters in the open ocean experience experience riverine and glacial melt plumes
changes in carbonate chemistry reflective of that create conditions in which seawater can
large-scale physical oceanic processes (see Ch. dissolve calcium carbonate structures.77, 78
2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). These While these processes have persisted histor-
processes include both the global uptake of ically, climate-induced increases in glacial
atmospheric CO2 and the shoaling of natural- melt and high-intensity precipitation events
ly acidified subsurface waters due to vertical can yield larger freshwater plumes than
mixing and upwelling. In general, the rate have occurred in the past. Nutrient runoff
of ocean acidification in open ocean surface can increase coastal acidification by creating
waters at a decadal time-scale closely approx- conditions that enhance biological respiration.
imates the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase.68 In brief, nutrient loading typically promotes
Large, multidecadal phenomena such as the phytoplankton blooms, which, when they die,
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific are consumed by bacteria. Bacteria respire
Decadal Oscillation can add variability to the CO2 and thus bacterial blooms can result in
observed rate of change.68 acidification events whose intensity depends
on local hydrographic conditions, including
13.3.3 Coastal Acidification water column stratification and residence
Coastal shelf and nearshore waters are influ- time.72 Long-term changes in nutrient loading,
enced by the same processes as open ocean precipitation, and/or ice melt may also impart
surface waters such as absorption of atmo- long-term, secular changes in the magnitude
spheric CO2 and upwelling, as well as a num- of coastal acidification.
ber of additional, local-level processes, includ-
ing freshwater, nutrient, sulfur, and nitrogen 13.3.4 Latitudinal Variation
inputs.69, 70 Coastal acidification generally ex- Ocean carbon chemistry is highly influ-
hibits higher-frequency variability and short- enced by water temperature, largely because
term episodic events relative to open-ocean the solubility of CO2 in seawater increases
acidification.71, 72, 73, 74 Upwelling is of particular as water temperature declines. Thus, cold,
importance in coastal waters, especially along high-latitude surface waters can retain more
the U.S. West Coast. Deep waters that shoal CO2 than warm, lower-latitude surface wa-
with upwelling are enriched in CO2 due to up- ters.76, 79 Because carbonate minerals also more
take of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 when readily dissolve in colder waters, these waters
last in contact with the atmosphere, coupled can more regularly become undersaturated
with deep water respiration processes and with respect to calcium carbonate whereby
lack of gas exchange with the atmosphere.65, mineral dissolution is energetically favored.
75
Freshwater inputs to coastal waters change This chemical state, often referred to as sea-
seawater chemistry in ways that make it more water being “corrosive” to calcium carbonate,
susceptible to acidification, largely by fresh- is important when considering the ecological
ening ocean waters and contributing varying implications of ocean acidification as many
amounts of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), species make structures such as shells and
total alkalinity (TA), dissolved and particulate skeletons from calcium carbonate. Seawater
organic carbon, and nutrients from riverine conditions undersaturated with respect to
and estuarine sources. Coastal waters of the calcium carbonate are common at depth, but
East Coast and mid-Atlantic are far more in- currently and historically rare at the surface
fluenced by freshwater inputs than are Pacific and near-surface.80 Some high-latitude surface

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

and near-surface waters now experience such 13.3.6 Projected Changes

corrosive conditions, which are rarely docu- Projections indicate that by the end of the
mented in low-latitude surface or near-surface century under higher scenarios, such as SRES
systems. For example, corrosive conditions A1FI or RCP8.5, open-ocean surface pH will
at a range of ocean depths have been docu- decline from the current average level of 8.1
mented in the Arctic and northeastern Pacific to a possible average of 7.8 (Figure 13.5).1
Oceans.74, 79, 81, 82 Storm-induced upwelling When the entire ocean volume is considered
could cause undersaturation in tropical ar- under the same scenario, the volume of waters
eas in the future.83 It is important to note that undersaturated with respect to calcium car-
low-latitude waters are experiencing a greater bonate could expand from 76% in the 1990s to
absolute rate of change in calcium carbonate 91% in 2100, resulting in a shallowing of the
saturation state than higher latitudes, though saturation horizons—depths below which un-
these low-latitude waters are not approaching dersaturation occurs.1, 88 Saturation horizons,
the undersaturated state except within near- which naturally vary among ocean basins,
shore or some benthic habitats.84 influence ocean carbon cycles and organisms
with calcium carbonate structures, especially
13.3.5 Paleo Evidence as they shoal into the zones where most biota
Evidence suggests that the current rate of lives.81, 89 As discussed above, for a variety
ocean acidification is the fastest in the last 66 of reasons, not all ocean and coastal regions
million years (the K-Pg boundary) and pos- will experience acidification in the same way
sibly even the last 300 million years (when depending on other compounding factors.
the first pelagic calcifiers evolved providing For instance, recent observational data from
proxy information and also a strong carbonate the Arctic Basin show that the Beaufort Sea
buffer, characteristic of the modern ocean).85, 86 became undersaturated, for part of the year,
The Paleo-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; with respect to aragonite in 2001, while other
around 56 million years ago) is often refer- continental shelf seas in the Arctic Basin are
enced as the closest analogue to the present, projected to do so closer to the middle of the
although the overall rate of change in CO2 century (e.g., the Chukchi Sea in about 2033
conditions during that event (estimated be- and Bering Sea in about 2062).90 Deviation
tween 0.6 and 1.1 GtC/year) was much lower from the global average rate of acidification
than the current increase in atmospheric CO2 will be especially true in coastal and estuarine
of 10 GtC/year.86, 87 The relatively slower rate areas where the rate of acidification is influ-
of atmospheric CO2 increase at the PETM like- enced by other drivers than atmospheric CO2,
ly led to relatively small changes in carbonate some of which are under the control of local
ion concentration in seawater compared with management decisions (for example, nutrient
the contemporary acidification rate, due to the pollution loads).
ability of rock weathering to buffer the change
over the longer time period.86 Some of the pre-
sumed acidification events in Earth’s history
have been linked to selective extinction events
suggestive of how guilds of species may re-
spond to the current acidification event.85

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

Surface
SurfacepH
pHin
in 2090s (RCP8.5,
2090s (RCP8.5, changes
changes from 1990s)
from 1990s)
−0.2

−0.3

−0.4

−0.5

Figure 13.5: Predicted change in sea surface pH in 2090–2099 relative to 1990–1999 under the higher scenario
(RCP8.5), based on the Community Earth System Models–Large Ensemble Experiments CMIP5 (Figure source:
adapted from Bopp et al. 201324).

13.4 Ocean Deoxygenation

onset and longer periods of seasonal hypoxia
13.4.1 General Background in many eutrophic sites, most of which occur
Oxygen is essential to most life in the ocean, in areas that are also warming.91
governing a host of biogeochemical and bi-
ological processes. Oxygen influences meta- 13.4.2 Climate Drivers of Ocean Deoxygenation
bolic, physiological, reproductive, behavioral, Global ocean deoxygenation is a direct effect
and ecological processes, ultimately shaping of warming. Ocean warming reduces the
the composition, diversity, abundance, and solubility of oxygen (that is, warmer water can
distribution of organisms from microbes to hold less oxygen) and changes physical mix-
whales. Increasingly, climate-induced oxygen ing (for example, upwelling and circulation)
loss (deoxygenation) associated with ocean of oxygen in the oceans. The increased tem-
warming and reduced ventilation to deep wa- perature of global oceans accounts for about
ters has become evident locally, regionally, and 15% of current global oxygen loss,94 although
globally. Deoxygenation can also be attributed changes in temperature and oxygen are not
to anthropogenic nutrient input, especially in uniform throughout the ocean.15 Warming also
the coastal regions, where the nutrients can exerts direct influence on thermal stratification
lead to the proliferation of primary production and enhances salinity stratification through
and, consequently, enhanced drawdown of ice melt and climate change-associated precip-
dissolved oxygen by microbes.91 In addition, itation effects. Intensified stratification leads
acidification (Section 13.2) can co-occur with to reduced ventilation (mixing of oxygen into
deoxygenation as a result of warming-en- the ocean interior) and accounts for up to 85%
hanced biological respiration.92 As aerobic of global ocean oxygen loss.94 Effects of ocean
organisms respire, O2 is consumed and CO2 is temperature change and stratification on oxy-
produced. Understanding the combined effect gen loss are strongest in intermediate or mode
of both low O2 and low pH on marine ecosys- waters at bathyal depths (in general, 200–3,000
tems is an area of active research.93 Warming m) and also nearshore and in the open ocean;
also raises biological metabolic rates which, these changes are especially evident in tropical
in combination with intensified coastal and and subtropical waters globally, in the Eastern
estuarine stratification, exacerbates eutrophi- Pacific,95 and in the Southern Ocean.94
cation-induced hypoxia. We now see earlier

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There are also other, less direct effects of global mixing and ventilation, and intensify nutrient
temperature increase. Warming on land reduc- input to coastal waters through excess runoff,
es terrestrial plant water efficiency (through which leads to increased algal biomass and
effects on stomata; see Ch. 8: Drought, Floods, concurrent dissolved oxygen consumption via
and Wildfires, Key Message 3), leading to community respiration.99 Coastal wetlands
greater runoff, on average, into coastal zones that might remove these nutrients before they
(see Ch. 8: Drought, Floods, and Wildfires for reach the ocean may be lost through rising sea
other hydrological effects of warming) and level, further exacerbating hypoxia.97 Some
further enhancing hypoxia potential because observations of oxygen decline are linked
greater runoff can mean more nutrient trans- to regional changes in circulation involving
port (See Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate low-oxygen water masses. Enhanced fluxes of
Change).96, 97 Estuaries, especially ones with airborne iron and nitrogen are interacting with
minimal tidal mixing, are particularly vulner- natural climate variability and contributing to
able to oxygen-depleted dead zones from the fertilization, enhanced respiration, and oxygen
enhanced runoff and stratification. Warming loss in the tropical Pacific.100
can induce dissociation of frozen methane
in gas hydrates buried on continental mar- 13.4.3 Biogeochemical Feedbacks of Deoxygen-
gins, leading to further drawdown of oxygen ation to Climate and Elemental Cycles
through aerobic methane oxidation in the Climate patterns and ocean circulation have a
water column.98 On eastern ocean boundaries, large effect on global nitrogen and oxygen cy-
warming can enhance the land–sea tempera- cles, which in turn affect phosphorus and trace
ture differential, causing increased upwelling metal availability and generate feedbacks
due to higher winds with (a) greater nutrient to the atmosphere and oceanic production.
input leading to production, sinking, decay, Global ocean productivity may be affected
and biochemical drawdown of oxygen and (b) by climate-driven changes below the tropical
upwelling of naturally low-oxygen, high-CO2 and subtropical thermocline which control
waters onto the upper slope and shelf environ- the volume of suboxic waters (< 5 micromolar
ments.58, 65 However, in the California Current, O2), and consequently the loss of fixed nitro-
upwelling intensification has occurred only in gen through denitrification.101, 102 The extent
the poleward regions (north of San Francisco), of suboxia in the open ocean also regulates
and the drivers may not be associated with the production of the greenhouse gas nitrous
land–sea temperature differences.63 Taken to- oxide (N2O); as oxygen declines, greater N2O
gether, the effects of warming are manifested production may intensify global warming,
as low-oxygen water in open oceans are being as N2O is about 310 times more effective at
transported to and upwelled along coastal trapping heat than CO2 (see Ch. 2: Physical
regions. These low-oxygen upwelled waters Drivers of Climate Change, Section 2.3.2).103, 104
are then coupled with eutrophication-induced Production of hydrogen sulfide (H2S, which is
hypoxia, further reducing oxygen content in highly toxic) and intensified phosphorus recy-
coastal areas. cling can occur at low oxygen levels.105 Other
feedbacks may emerge as oxygen minimum
Changes in precipitation, winds, circulation, zone (OMZ) shoaling diminishes the depths of
airborne nutrients, and sea level can also diurnal vertical migrations by fish and inver-
contribute to ocean deoxygenation. Project- tebrates, and as their huge biomass and associ-
ed increases in precipitation in some regions ated oxygen consumption deplete oxygen.106
will intensify stratification, reducing vertical

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

13.4.4 Past Trends Ocean,94 Western Pacific,124 and North Atlan-

Over hundreds of millions of years, oxygen tic.125 Overall oxygen declines have been great-
has varied dramatically in the atmosphere er in coastal oceans than in the open ocean126
and ocean and has been linked to biodiversity and often greater inshore than offshore.127
gains and losses.107, 108 Variation in oxygen- The emergence of a deoxygenation signal in
ation in the paleo record is very sensitive to regions with naturally high oxygen variability
climate—with clear links to temperature and will unfold over longer time periods (20–50
often CO2 variation.109 OMZs expand and con- years from now).128
tract in synchrony with warming and cooling
events, respectively.110 Episodic climate events 13.4.6 Projected Changes
that involve rapid temperature increases over Global Models
decades, followed by a cool period lasting a Global models generally agree that ocean
few hundred years, lead to major fluctuations deoxygenation is occurring; this finding is
in the intensity of Pacific and Indian Ocean also reflected in in situ observations from
OMZs (i.e., DO of < 20 µM). These events are past 50 years. Compilations of 10 Earth Sys-
associated with rapid variations in North At- tem models predict a global average loss of
lantic deep water formation.111 Ocean oxygen oxygen of −3.5% (higher scenario, RCP8.5)
fluctuates on glacial-interglacial timescales of to −2.4% (lower scenario, RCP4.5) by 2100,
thousands of years in the Eastern Pacific.112, 113 but much stronger losses regionally, and in
intermediate and mode waters (Figure 13.6).24
13.4.5 Modern Observations (last 50+ years) The North Pacific, North Atlantic, Southern
Long-term oxygen records made over the Ocean, subtropical South Pacific, and South
last 50 years reflect oxygen declines in inland Indian Oceans all are expected to experience
seas,114, 115, 116 in estuaries,117, 118 and in coast- deoxygenation, with O2 decreases of as much
al waters.119, 120, 121, 122 The number of coastal, as 17% in the North Pacific by 2100 for the
eutrophication-induced hypoxic sites in the RCP8.5 pathway. However, the tropical Atlan-
United States has grown dramatically over the tic and tropical Indian Oceans show increasing
past 40 years.123 Over larger scales, global syn- O2 concentrations. In the many areas where
theses show hypoxic waters have expanded oxygen is declining, high natural variability
by 4.5 million km2 at a depth of 200 m,95 with makes it difficult to identify anthropogenically
widespread loss of oxygen in the Southern forced trends.128

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

Projected
Projected Change
Change in
in Dissolved
Dissolved Oxygen
Oxygen

mmol/m3

−200 −185 −170 −155 −140 −125 −110 −95 −80 −65 −50 −35 −20 −5 5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200

Figure 13.6: Predicted change in dissolved oxygen on the σθ = 26.5 (average depth of approximately 290 m) potential
density surface, between the 1981–2000 and 2081–2100, based on the Community Earth System Models–Large En-
semble Experiments (Figure source: redrawn from Long et al. 2016128).

Regional Models ia in the Gulf of Mexico.131 A host of climate

Regional models are critical because many influences linked to warming and increased
oxygen drivers are local, influenced by ba- precipitation are predicted to lower dissolved
thymetry, winds, circulation, and fresh water oxygen in Chesapeake Bay.132
and nutrient inputs. Most eastern boundary
upwelling areas are predicted to experience
13.5 Other Coastal Changes
intensified upwelling to 2100,61 although on 13.5.1 Sea Level Rise
the West Coast projections for increasing Sea level is an important variable that affects
upwelling for the northern California Current coastal ecosystems. Global sea level rose rap-
occur only north of San Francisco (see Section idly at the end of the last glaciation, as glaciers
13.2.3). and the polar ice sheets thinned and melted at
their fringes. On average around the globe, sea
Particularly notable for the western United level is estimated to have risen at rates exceed-
States, variation in trade winds in the eastern ing 2.5 mm/year between about 8,000 and
Pacific Ocean can affect nutrient inputs, lead- 6,000 years before present. These rates steadily
ing to centennial periods of oxygen decline or decreased to less than 2.0 mm/year through
oxygen increase distinct from global oxygen about 4,000 years ago and stabilized at less
decline.129 Oxygen dynamics in the Eastern than 0.4 mm/year through the late 1800s.
Tropical Pacific are highly sensitive to equato- Global sea level rise has accelerated again
rial circulation changes.130 within the last 100 years, and now averages
about 1 to 2 mm/year.133 See Chapter 12: Sea
Regional modeling also shows that year-to- Level Rise for more thorough analysis of how
year variability in precipitation in the central sea level rise has already and will affect the
United States affects the nitrate–N flux by the U.S. coasts.
Mississippi River and the extent of hypox-

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

13.5.2 Wet and Dry Deposition that stimulate phytoplankton growth are
Dust transported from continental desert re- impacted by various climate conditions, such
gions to the marine environment deposits nu- as increased stratification which limits the
trients such as iron, nitrogen, phosphorus, and transport of nutrient-rich deep water to the
trace metals that stimulate growth of phyto- surface, changes in circulation leading to vari-
plankton and increase marine productivity.134 ability in dry and wet deposition of nutrients
U.S. continental and coastal regions experi- to coasts, and altered precipitation/evapora-
ence large dust deposition fluxes originating tion which changes runoff of nutrients from
from the Saharan desert to the East and from coastal communities. The effect of the multiple
Central Asia and China to the Northwest.135 physical factors on NPP is complex and leads
Changes in drought frequency or intensity re- to model uncertainties.140 There is consider-
sulting from anthropogenically forced climate able variation in model projections for NPP,
change, as well as other anthropogenic activ- from estimated decreases or no changes, to the
ities such as agricultural practices and land- potential increases by 2100.141, 142, 143 Simula-
use changes may play an important role in tions from nine Earth system models projected
the future viability and strength of these dust total NPP in 2090 to decrease by 2%–16% and
sources (e.g., Mulitza et al. 2010136). export production (that is, particulate flux to
the deep ocean) to drop by 7%–18% as com-
Additionally, oxidized nitrogen, released pared to 1990 (RCP8.5).142 More information
during high-temperature combustion over on phytoplankton species response and asso-
land, and reduced nitrogen, released from ciated ecosystem dynamics is needed as any
intensive agriculture, are emitted in high pop- reduction of NPP and the associated export
ulation areas in North America and are carried production would have an impact on carbon
away and deposited through wet or dry depo- cycling and marine ecosystems.
sition over coastal and open ocean ecosystems
via local wind circulation. Wet deposition of 13.5.4 Estuaries
pollutants produced in urban areas is known Estuaries are critical ecosystems of biological,
to play an important role in changes of eco- economic, and social importance in the United
system structure in coastal and open ocean States. They are highly dynamic, influenced
systems through intermediate changes in the by the interactions of atmospheric, freshwater,
biogeochemistry, for instance in dissolved terrestrial, oceanic, and benthic components.
oxygen or various forms of carbon.137 Of the 28 national estuarine research reserves
in the United States and Puerto Rico, all are
13.5.3 Primary Productivity being impacted by climate change to varying
Marine phytoplankton represent about half levels.144 In particular, sea level rise, saltwa-
of the global net primary production (NPP) ter intrusion, and the degree of freshwater
(approximately 50 ± 28 GtC /year), fixing discharge influence the forces and processes
atmospheric CO2 into a bioavailable form for within these estuaries.145 Sea level rise and
utilization by higher trophic levels (see also subsidence are leading to drowning of existing
Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change).138, salt marshes and/or subsequent changes in
139
As such, NPP represents a critical compo- the relative area of the marsh plain, if adaptive
nent in the role of the oceans in climate feed- upslope movement is impeded due to urban-
back. The effect of climate change on primary ization along shorelines. Several model sce-
productivity varies across the coasts depend- narios indicate a decline in salt marsh habitat
ing on local conditions. For instance, nutrients quality and an accelerated degradation as the

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

rate of sea level rise increases in the latter half

of the century.146, 147 The increase in sea level as
well as alterations to oceanic and atmospheric
circulation can result in extreme wave con-
ditions and storm surges, impacting coastal
communities.144 Additional climate change
impacts to the physical and chemical estuarine
processes include more extreme sea surface
temperatures (higher highs and lower lows
compared to the open ocean due to shallower
depths and influence from land temperatures),
changes in flow rates due to changes in pre-
cipitation, and potentially greater extents of
salinity intrusion.

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TRACEABLE ACCOUNTS
Key Finding 1 on evidence from the latest generation of Earth System
The world’s oceans have absorbed about 93% of the Models (CMIP5).
excess heat caused by greenhouse gas warming since
the mid-20th century, making them warmer and alter- Major uncertainties
ing global and regional climate feedbacks. Ocean heat Uncertainties in the magnitude of ocean warming stem
content has increased at all depths since the 1960s from the disparate measurements of ocean tempera-
and surface waters have warmed by about 1.3° ± 0.1°F ture over the last century. There is low uncertainty in
(0.7° ± 0.08°C) per century globally since 1900 to 2016. warming trends of the upper ocean temperature from
Under a higher scenario, a global increase in average 0–700 m depth, whereas there is more uncertainty
sea surface temperature of 4.9° ± 1.3°F (2.7° ± 0.7°C) by for deeper ocean depths of 700–2,000 m due to the
2100 is projected, with even higher changes in some short record of measurements from those areas. Data
U.S. coastal regions. (Very high confidence) on warming trends at depths greater than 2,000 m are
even more sparse. There are also uncertainties in the
Description of evidence base timing and reasons for particular decadal and interan-
The key finding and supporting text summarizes the nual variations in ocean heat content and the contri-
evidence documented in climate science literature, in- butions that different ocean basins play in the overall
cluding Rhein et al. 2013.4 Oceanic warming has been ocean heat uptake.
documented in a variety of data sources, most nota-
bly the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates
(http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/woce/wdiu/) and Argo the above information
databases (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/argo/) and There is very high confidence in measurements that
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature show increases in the ocean heat content and warm-
(ERSST) v4 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/ ing of the ocean, based on the agreement of different
marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-sur- methods. However, long-term data in total ocean heat
face-temperature-ersst-v4). There is particular confi- uptake in the deep ocean are sparse leading to limited
dence in calculated warming for the time period since knowledge of the transport of heat between and with-
1971 due to increased spatial and depth coverage and in ocean basins.
the level of agreement among independent SST ob-
servations from satellites, surface drifters and ships, Key Finding 2
and independent studies using differing analyses, The potential slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Over-
bias corrections, and data sources.6, 7, 11 Other observa- turning Circulation (AMOC; of which the Gulf Stream is
tions such as the increase in mean sea level rise (see one component)—as a result of increasing ocean heat
Ch. 12: Sea Level Rise) and reduced Arctic/Antarctic content and freshwater driven buoyancy changes—
ice sheets (see Ch. 11: Arctic Changes) further confirm could have dramatic climate feedbacks as the ocean
the increase in thermal expansion. For the purpose of absorbs less heat and CO2 from the atmosphere.51 This
extending the selected time periods back from 1900 slowing would also affect the climates of North Amer-
to 2016 and analyzing U.S. regional SSTs, the ERSST ica and Europe. Any slowing documented to date can-
version 4 (ERSSTv4)19 is used. For the centennial time not be directly tied to anthropogenic forcing primarily
scale changes over 1900–2016, warming trends in all due to lack of adequate observational data and to chal-
regions are statistically significant with the 95% con- lenges in modeling ocean circulation changes. Under
fidence level. U.S. regional SST warming is similar be- a higher scenario (RCP8.5) in CMIP5 simulations, the
tween calculations using ERSSTv4 in this report and AMOC weakens over the 21st century by 12% to 54%
those published by Belkin,148 suggesting confidence in (low confidence).
these findings. The projected increase in SST is based

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

Description of evidence base tainty in both future freshwater input at high latitudes
Investigations both through direct observations and as well as the strength of the subpolar gyre circulation.
models since 20134 have raised significant concerns
about whether there is enough evidence to determine Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates
the existence of an overall slowdown in the AMOC. As the above information
a result, more robust international observational cam- The increased focus on direct measurements of the
paigns are underway currently to measure AMOC circu- AMOC should lead to a better understanding of 1)
lation. Direct observations have determined a statistical- how it is changing and its variability by region, and 2)
ly significant slowdown at the 95% confidence level at whether those changes are attributable to climate driv-
26°N (off Florida; see Baringer et al. 2016149) but model- ers through both model improvements and incorpora-
ing studies constrained with observations cannot attri- tion of those expanded observations into the models.
bute this to anthropogenic forcing.39 The study29 which
seemed to indicate broad-scale slowing has since been Key Finding 3
discounted due to its heavy reliance on sea surface tem- The world’s oceans are currently absorbing more than a
perature cooling as proxy for slowdown rather than ac- quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere annually
tual direct observations. Since Rhein et al. 2013,4 more from human activities, making them more acidic (very
observations have led to increased statistical confidence high confidence), with potential detrimental impacts to
in the measurement of the AMOC. Current observation marine ecosystems. In particular, higher-latitude sys-
trends indicate the AMOC slowing down at the 95% con- tems typically have a lower buffering capacity against
fidence level at 26°N and 41°N but a more limited in situ pH change, exhibiting seasonally corrosive conditions
estimate at 35°S, shows an increase in the AMOC.35, 149 sooner than low-latitude systems. Acidification is re-
There is no one collection spot for AMOC-related data, gionally increasing along U.S. coastal systems as a re-
but the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Pro- sult of upwelling (for example, in the Pacific Northwest)
gram (US CLIVAR) has a U.S. AMOC priority focus area (high confidence), changes in freshwater inputs (for
and a webpage with relevant data sites (https://usclivar. example, in the Gulf of Maine) (medium confidence),
org/amoc/amoc-time-series). and nutrient input (for example, in agricultural water-
sheds and urbanized estuaries) (high confidence). The
The IPCC 2013 WG1 projections indicate a high likeli- rate of acidification is unparalleled in at least the past
hood of AMOC slowdown in the next 100 years, how- 66 million years (medium confidence). Under the high-
ever overall understanding is limited by both a lack of er scenario (RCP8.5), the global average surface ocean
direct observations (which is being remedied) and a acidity is projected to increase by 100% to 150% (high
lack of model skill to resolve deep ocean dynamics. As a confidence).
result, this key finding was given an overall assessment
of low confidence. Description of evidence base
Evidence on the magnitude of the ocean sink is ob-
Major uncertainties tained from multiple biogeochemical and transport
As noted, uncertainty about the overall trend of the ocean models and two observation-based estimates
AMOC is high given opposing trends in northern and from the 1990s for the uptake of the anthropogen-
southern ocean time series observations. Although ic CO2. Estimates of the carbonate system (DIC and
earth system models do indicate a high likelihood alkalinity) were based on multiple survey cruises in
of AMOC slowdown as a result of a warming, climate the global ocean in the 1990s (WOCE – now GO-SHIP,
projections are subject to high uncertainty. This un- JGOFS). Coastal carbon and acidification surveys have
certainty stems from intermodel differences, internal been executed along the U.S. coastal large marine eco-
variability that is different in each model, uncertainty system since at least 2007, documenting significantly
in stratification changes, and most importantly uncer- elevated pCO2 and low pH conditions relative to oce-

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

anic waters. The data are available from the National Key Finding 4
Centers for Environmental Information (https://www. Increasing sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels,
ncei.noaa.gov/). Other sources of biogeochemical bot- and changing patterns of precipitation, winds, nutri-
tle data can be found from HOT-DOGS ALOHA (http:// ents, and ocean circulation are contributing to over-
hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot-dogs) or CCHDO all declining oxygen concentrations at intermediate
(https://cchdo.ucsd.edu/). Rates of change associated depths in various ocean locations and in many coastal
with the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, areas. Over the last half century, major oxygen loss-
56 million years ago) were derived using stable carbon es have occurred in inland seas, estuaries, and in the
and oxygen isotope records preserved in the sedimen- coastal and open ocean (high confidence). Ocean ox-
tary record from the New Jersey shelf using time se- ygen levels are projected to decrease by as much as
ries analysis and carbon cycle–climate modelling. This 3.5% under the higher scenario (RCP8.5) by 2100 rela-
evidence supports a carbon release during the onset tive to preindustrial values (high confidence).
of the PETM over no less than 4,000 years, yielding a
maximum sustained carbon release rate of less than 1.1 Description of evidence base
GtC per year.86 The projected increase in global surface The key finding and supporting text summarizes the
ocean acidity is based on evidence from ten of the lat- evidence documented in climate science literature
est generation earth system models which include six including Rhein et al. 2013,4 Bopp et al. 2013,24 and
distinct biogeochemical models that were included in Schmidtko et al. 2017.150 Evidence arises from extensive
the latest IPCC AR5 2013. global measurements of the WOCE after 1989 and in-
dividual profiles before that.94 The first basin-wide dis-
Major uncertainties solved oxygen surveys were performed in the 1920s.150
In 2014 the ocean sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC (9.5 GtCO2), The confidence level is based on globally integrated O2
equivalent to 26% of the total emissions attributed to distributions in a variety of ocean models. Although
fossil fuel use and land use changes.67 Estimates of the the global mean exhibits low interannual variability, re-
PETM ocean acidification event evidenced in the geo- gional contrasts are large.
logical record remains a matter of some debate within
the community. Evidence for the 1.1 GtC per year cit- Major uncertainties
ed by Zeebe et al.,86 could be biased as a result of brief Uncertainties (as estimated from the intermodel
pulses of carbon input above average rates of emis- spread) in the global mean are moderate mainly be-
sions were they to transpire over timescales ≲ 40 years. cause ocean oxygen content exhibits low interannual
variability when globally averaged. Uncertainties in
Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates long-term decreases of the global averaged oxygen
the above information concentration amount to 25% in the upper 1,000 m
There is very high confidence in evidence that the oceans for the 1970–1992 period and 28% for the 1993–2003
absorb about a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted period. Remaining uncertainties relate to regional vari-
in the atmosphere and hence become more acidic. The ability driven by mesoscale eddies and intrinsic climate
magnitude of the ocean carbon sink is known at a high variability such as ENSO.
confidence level because it is estimated using a series of
disparate data sources and analysis methods, while the Summary sentence or paragraph that integrates
magnitude of the interannual variability is based only the above information
on model studies. There is medium confidence that the Major ocean deoxygenation is taking place in bodies
current rate of climate acidification is unprecedented in of water inland, at estuaries, and in the coastal and the
the past 66 million years. There is also high confidence open ocean (high confidence). Regionally, the phenom-
that oceanic pH will continue to decrease. enon is exacerbated by local changes in weather, ocean
circulation, and continental inputs to the oceans.

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 13 | Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes

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