STRUCTURAL FORCES

TECHNOLOGY

Key Takeaways
During the next two decades, the pace and impact of technological developments
are likely to increase, transforming and improving human experiences and ca-
pabilities and offering the potential to tackle challenges such as aging, climate
change, and low productivity growth, while creating new tensions and disruptions
within and between societies, industries, and states.

The next decades will see increasing global competition for the core elements
of technology supremacy, such as talent, knowledge, and markets, potentially
resulting in new technological leaders or hegemonies.

The race for technological dominance is inextricably intertwined with evolving

geopolitics and the broader US-China rivalry, but at the same time, technolog-
ical advantage will be augmented by companies that have a long-term focus,
resources, and global reach.

Spin off technologies and applications will be available for rapid adoption, en-
abling developing countries to take advantage of the latest core advances, develop
global applications in niche areas, and contribute to global supply chains.

Photo / Bigstock

54
 NEW MATERIALS
HUMAN-MACHINE
INTERFACE

ADVANCED
COMPUTING

COMMUNICATION
NETWORKS

HYPERCONNECTED
WORLD

VIRTUAL
REALITY
ROBOTICS

ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
INTERNET OF
THINGS

A M O R E CO NT E STE D WO R L D 55
 T
he increasing convergence
of seemingly unrelated
fields and the rise of global Scientific Convergence Sparking Innova-
tion. The convergence of seemingly unrelated
competition to generate areas of scientific research and technological
applications is making the rapid development
and lock in advantage are of novel applications possible, practical, and
useful. For example, the smartphone was
accelerating the emergence enabled by decades of basic research and
development in electronics, antennas, materi-
of cutting-edge technologies. als, batteries, telecommunications networks,
and user interfaces. By 2040, the increasing
convergence of technologies, such as artificial
intelligence (AI), high-speed telecommunica-
tions, and biotechnology, will be augmented
Assessing technological trends and their by increased understanding of the social and
broader implications is challenging because behavioral sciences to enable rapid break-
timelines remain uncertain, the path from throughs and user customized applications
foundational science to a transformational that are far more than the sum of their parts.
application can be difficult to discern, and the Taken together, these technology platforms
connections between a technology and its can then provide a foundation for rapid
potential broader implications can be indirect innovation while lowering the barriers to
and complex. Emerging technologies also raise market entrance.
myriad ethical, societal, and security ques-
tions—ranging, for example, from who we are Growing Competition for Dominance. The
as humans, to our impact on the environment, race for technological dominance is inextrica-
to the bounds of acceptable warfare. bly intertwined with evolving geopolitics and
is increasingly shaped by broader political,
TRENDS ACROSS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES economic, and societal rivalries, particularly
Multiple trends are shaping the technology those associated with China’s rise. Amassing
landscape of the next two decades, and while the resources to sustain broad technology
new technologies will not emerge uniformly leadership, including the concentration of
or predictably, they are likely to share some human talent, foundational knowledge, and
common drivers and dynamics. The increasing supply chains, requires decades of long-term
convergence of seemingly unrelated fields investment and visionary leadership. Those
and the rise of global competition to gener- focusing their resources today are likely to be
ate and lock-in advantage are accelerating the technology leaders of 2040. In open econ-
the emergence of cutting-edge technologies. omies, a mix of private efforts and partner-
The diffusion of technological knowledge, ships between governments, private corpo-
the aggressive setting of standards to favor rations, and research programs will compete
one technology solution over another, and with state-led economies, which may have
ever shorter product development timelines an advantage in directing and concentrating
will incentivize long-term strategy and rapid
decisionmaking to avoid missteps and falling
behind competitors.

56 G LO B AL T R EN D S 2 0 4 0
 resources, including data access, but may
lack the benefits of more open, creative, and
competitive environments.

Technologies Diffusing Globally. Spin off

technologies and applications are often
available for rapid adoption in nearly every
region of the world, enabling even developing
countries to take advantage of the latest core
advances, develop global applications in niche
areas, or contribute to the supply chains of
more advanced economies. Many states will
seek to accelerate and harness this process,
sponsoring focused efforts, such as regional
alternatives to Silicon Valley or biotechnol-
ogy incubators that will increase the risk of
surprise from novel applications arising from
unexpected locations.

Timelines Shrinking. The time to develop,

deploy, mature, and then retire technologies is
moving from decades to years and sometimes
faster. Multiple actors, including corporations
and states, at the forefront of emerging tech-
nology may deploy and exploit a new technol-
ogy before others get off the starting blocks.
Those trying to catch up, especially in devel-
oping countries, may be increasingly forced to
choose technologies before the implications of
those choices are fully understood, risking in-
vestment in technological dead ends or falling
hopelessly behind. Planned economies may be
able to react faster to emerging technology de-
velopments, potentially at the cost of reduced
technological diversity and efficiency.

TECHNOLOGIES DRIVING TRANSFORMATION

Although technology advances in unpredict-
able ways, shaped by unexpected difficulties
and unanticipated breakthroughs, some
technological areas appear to offer the po-
Photo / Bigstock

A M O R E CO NT E STE D WO R L D 57
 TRAJECTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the demonstration of cognition

and creative problem solving by machines rather than
humans or animals, ranging from narrow AI, designed to
MACHINE INTELLIGENCE

solve specific problems, to Artificial General Intelligence

(AGI), a system that in the future may match a human MATCH OR
EXCEED HUMAN
being’s understanding and learning capacity. CAPABILITY AND
INTELLIGENCE

ARTIFICIAL GENERAL
ARTIFICIAL NARROW INTELLIGENCE
INTELLIGENCE

PERFORM ONE SPECIFIC TASK

Voice Facial Autonomous

Email spam recognition recognition vehicles AGI emergence and
Airplane Antilock filter
autopilot brakes capability are unclear

1970 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60

tential for transformative change and provide designed to solve specific problems, to Artifi-
examples of the potential consequences of cial General Intelligence, a system that in the
new technologies in the coming decades. The future may match or exceed a human being’s
following sections on AI, biotechnology, and understanding and learning capacity. By 2040,
materials and manufacturing—selected after AI applications, in combination with other
consultation with technology leaders—high- technologies, will benefit almost every aspect
light the potential benefits and risks of new of life, including improved healthcare, safer
technologies individually and collectively in and more efficient transportation, personal-
creating a future hyperconnected world. Ad- ized education, improved software for ev-
vances in these areas will combine with other eryday tasks, and increased agricultural crop
technologies, such as energy storage, to shape yields. Political and business leaders world-
societies, economies, and perhaps the nature wide are seeking global talent and are pouring
of power. resources into developing AI, hoping to be
among the first to use it to reshape societies,
Artificial Intelligence
economies, and even war. Enabled by concur-
Becoming Mainstream
rent increases in high-quality data, computing
AI is the demonstration of cognition and cre-
capability, and high-speed communication
ative problem solving by machines rather than
links, AI will challenge leaders to keep pace
humans or animals, ranging from narrow AI,

58 G LO B AL T R EN D S 2 0 4 0
and reap the benefits while mitigating harmful nizations will also have powerful tools such as
effects, such as threats to privacy and liberty. video manipulation, or deep fakes, to improve
tailored marketing or advance a particular
Although many new AI developments will be
narrative. Emerging AI applications may also
available globally, there are disproportion-
become potential targets for data manipula-
ate advantages for nations that can afford to
tion to skew their output.
support, develop, and adopt AI now. Wide-
spread adoption of AI, particularly in warfare, Ethics of Autonomy. AI’s development and
also increases the risk of intentional misuse or the level of human involvement in decision-
unintended engagement or escalation. making, if any, will continue to raise ethical
concerns, and perspectives on ethical obliga-
Industry and Labor Transformed. AI will
tions are likely to be differ globally. In addi-
transform almost all industries and disrupt
tion, the opaque nature of AI decisionmaking
the global labor force, creating new job fields,
increases the possibility of unintentional
eliminating others, and driving significant eco-
bias, discrimination, unexpected outcomes,
nomic and social redistributions. Human-ma-
or intentional misdirection. Cooperation to
chine teaming will be common for many
advance trustworthy AI, with transparent and
future jobs. To harness the advantages of AI
clear decisionmaking processes, may improve
while mitigating unemployment, countries and
trust and confidence for all parties. Although
corporations will need to focus on education
many countries will develop strict rules on the
and retraining their workforce.
use of personal data, there will be debate on
Data Will Be King. AI dependent industries whether these rules can coexist with the full
and organizations of the future will require realization of AI capabilities.
massive quantities of data to operate efficient-
AI Enhanced Warfare. AI will confer strong
ly and competitively. Institutions, companies,
advantages to countries that incorporate AI
and countries already investing in ways to
into their military systems. AI will enhance the
acquire, classify, store, and monetize data
performance of existing weapons, defenses,
will have advantages. The unprecedented
and security systems, both physical and cyber,
amounts of data available in 2040 will provide
while counter-AI techniques, designed to
valuable insights and capabilities but also
negate or confuse AI decision making, also are
open up access, privacy, ownership, and con-
likely to emerge.
trol of data as areas of increasing competition
and conflict. Smart Materials and Manufacturing
Are Building a New World
Security and Privacy Reimagined. Current
By 2040, advances in novel materials, cou-
notions of privacy will continue to evolve, with
pled with smart manufacturing, will reshape
individuals needing to share more personal
the production of everything from consumer
information for access to applications, and
goods to high-end military systems, reducing
tracking becoming ubiquitous. Authoritarian
costs, extending capabilities, shifting supply
governments are likely to exploit increased
chains, and enabling entirely new design
data to monitor and even control their popula-
options. The period of rapid change we are
tions. Moreover, many companies and orga-
entering is often referred to as a Fourth

A M O R E CO NT E STE D WO R L D 59
 Industrial Revolution because of its potential Design What You Need. Materials today are
to improve standards of living while possibly undergoing a revolutionary transformation,
disrupting traditional industries, jobs, supply shifting from off-the-shelf materials to opti-
chains, and business models. mized materials and processes designed for
custom products. Combined with additive
Materials and manufacturing are inextrica-
manufacturing, materials-by-design will en-
bly linked in a long-standing virtuous cycle,
able great strides in making everything from
where advances in one drive advances in the
airplanes to cell phones stronger, lighter, and
other. Although this cycle alone could contin-
more durable.
ue to drive progress for decades to come, it
most likely will be accelerated by convergent Assemble What You Need. The coming
advances in high performance computing, decades will see advances in the development
materials modeling, AI, and bio-materials. of new materials with previously unobtainable
Increased connectivity will complement this properties, enabling previously unreachable
growth by allowing advances to be distributed levels of performance for many applications.
and accessible across the globe. Two-dimensional materials, metamaterials,
and programmable matter will have unusu-
Increased Design Options. Additive man-
al strength, flexibility, conductivity, or other
ufacturing (AM), more commonly known as
properties that enable new applications.
3D printing, is being used to fabricate an
increasing variety of materials, from titanium Biotechnology Enabling Rapid Innovation
to explosives, in smaller facilities and with less Improved capability to predictably manipulate
expertise, bringing advanced manufacturing biological systems, augmented by advances
capabilities to small companies and individu- in automation, information, and materials
als worldwide. Despite some technical hurdles sciences, is spurring unprecedented innova-
and questions of reliability, AM is driving a rev- tion in health, agriculture, manufacturing, and
olution in modern manufacturing by enabling cognitive sciences. By 2040, biotechnology
rapid prototyping, highly customized parts, on- innovations most likely will enable societies
site production, and the fabrication of shapes to reduce disease, hunger, and petrochem-
that would otherwise be impossible. ical dependence and will transform how we
interact with the environment and each other.
Adapting On The Fly. Advances in informa-
Societies will be challenged to harness these
tion systems, including computational mod-
beneficial advancements while addressing the
eling and machine learning, combined with
market, regulatory, safety, and ethical con-
advanced physical systems, such as a robust
cerns surrounding these technologies—for ex-
industrial Internet of Things and advanced
ample, genetically modified crops and foods.
robotics, are likely to enable fully integrated,
collaborative manufacturing systems that Biotechnology is likely to make significant con-
respond in real time to meet changing condi- tributions to economic growth during the next
tions in the factory, in the supply network, and two decades, potentially affecting 20 percent
in demand. of global economic activity by 2040, notably
in agriculture and manufacturing, based on

60 G LO B AL T R EN D S 2 0 4 0
BENEFITS AND RISKS OF ADVANCED BIOTECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS

BENEFITS A P P L I C AT I O N RISKS
Misdiagnoses plummet and healthcare DIGITAL HEALTH / Access disparities due to costs or
PERSONALIZED MEDICINE location. Personal health data misuse
outcomes improve.
Tailored medical treatments using AI to or manipulation.
combine data from genetic sequencing,
diagnostics, and biomonitoring.

Rapid, more effective Disputes over R&D prioritization in

ON DEMAND MEDICINE PRODUCTION
medical treatments. developed vs. developing countries.
Cell-and gene-based therapies, combined
with improvements in drug design and
production, for faster disease response.

Reduce delays and rejections of organ BIOPRINTING AND Access disparities due to the
transplants and repairs. XENOTRANSPLANTATION high up-front costs.
Additive manufacturing to “print”
biological parts for medical testing or
tissue replacement, grow human-
compatible organs in animals for
transplantation.

Major reduction in inherited Ethical and social divides over

REPRODUCTIVE ENGINEERING applications. Unequal access.
genetic diseases.
Using genomic technologies to select
and modify human embryos for broad
range of traits and abilities.
Novel treatments for neurological Tensions between augmented and
disorders. Enhanced cognition and COMPUTER-HUMAN INTERFACES non-augmented individuals. New
expanded perception. cyber/bio vulnerabilities.
Machine augmentation of human
cognitive processes.
Improved speed and reliability in
Increased potential for misuse and
designing and making novel BIO-MANUFACTURING workforce restructuring.
materials, medicines.
Bio-design and production of enhanced
or highly specified materials, medicines
and foods.
Potential for weapons applications or
Ready production of new and novel
SYNTHETIC ORGANISMS accidental misuse. Unknown
molecules, materials and treatments.
environmental impacts.
Genetically modified organisms and
biological processes create new
materials and medicines.
Make barren or depleted lands Unintended, potentially global
productive. Mitigate human-induced ENVIRONMENTAL RESTORATION environmental or public
and natural threats to the environment. health consequences.
Large-scale ecological intervention,
through biotechnology, reforestation, or
ocean engineering creates, manipulates,
or rescues damaged environments.
Practically unlimited capacity for Increased potential for long-term
DNA-BASED DATA STORAGE social monitoring.
long-term data storage.
DNA used to encode and store data.

Increased variety of cheaper, more Reduced biodiversity, social tensions

TRANSFORMED AGRICULTURE AND
nutritious foods created with lower over genetic modification, workforce
FOOD PRODUCTION
environmental impact. and supply chain disruptions.
Automated precision production processes
and integrated crop-livestock systems use
genetically altered organisms.

A M O R E CO NT E STE D WO R L D 61
 NEW TECHNOLOGIES FUELING SPACE
COMMERCE AND SPARKING COMPETITION

The space landscape in 2040 will combine emerging technology with a maturation of today’s capabili-
ties to help drive commercialization and introduce new applications. Services, such as communications,
navigation, and satellite imagery, will become ubiquitous offering improved capabilities, lower costs, and
increasing efficiencies. The efforts of both government and commercial actors will establish new domains of
space competition, particularly between the United States and China.

Space Exploration Expands

By 2040, an increasing number of countries will be participating in space exploration as part of internation-
al cooperative efforts. By doing so, these countries will acquire national prestige, opportunities for scientific
and technical advancement, and potential economic benefits. Although governments will remain the
primary source of funding to support large-scale space exploration activities, the role of commercial entities
will expand dramatically in most aspects of space activities. Commercial efforts will coexist, and probably
cooperate, with government-funded space programs, advancing space technologies.

China As A Space Power

By 2040, China will be the most significant rival to the United States in space, competing on commercial,
civil, and military fronts. China will continue to pursue a path of space technology development indepen-
dent of that involving the United States and Europe and will have its own set of foreign partners participat-
ing in Chinese-led space activities. Chinese space services, such as the Beidou satellite navigation system,
will be in use around the world as an alternative to Western options.

Space Supporting Government and Military Needs

Enhanced space services and new technology will be available for military applications as well as civil
government and commercial use. National space assets will be particularly coveted as governments remain
concerned about the possibility that commercial or foreign government space services could be denied in
conflict.

On-Orbit Activities Become Routine

By 2040, governments probably will conduct routine on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing activ-
ities, enabled by advanced autonomy and additive manufacturing, to support national space systems and
international efforts. Commercial companies probably will offer on-orbit services, such as repair, remote
survey, relocation, refueling, and debris removal. On-orbit services will be used to upgrade satellites, ex-
tend their functional lives, and allow for new types of space structures, such as extremely large or complex
instruments, but they may need government support to establish the industry.

AI Goes to Space
AI will allow innovative use of space services by assisting with operation of large satellite constellations and
space situational awareness capabilities. AI will also support the fusion and analysis of enormous volumes
of high-quality, continuously collected data, driven partly by hyperconnected space and ground systems.

62 G LO B AL T R EN D S 2 0 4 0
 bioeconomy growth rates relative to gross based services, it is projected that hundreds of
domestic product (GDP). In 2019, the United billions and eventually trillions of devices may
States estimated its bioeconomy at nearly $1 be connected globally.
trillion dollars annually, or approximately 5.1
Accelerated Societal Change. Privacy and
percent of its total economy, while European
anonymity may effectively disappear by choice
Union and UN estimates from 2017-19, which
or government mandate, as all aspects of
apply a broader definition of bioeconomic
personal and professional lives are tracked
activities, show biotech contributing as much
by global networks. Real-time, manufactured
as 10 percent to Europe’s economy.
or synthetic media could further distort truth
Hyperconnectivity Uniting and and reality, destabilizing societies at a scale
Separating Societies and speed that dwarfs current disinformation
By 2040, the world will have orders-of-mag- challenges. Many types of crimes, particularly
nitude more devices, data, and interactions, those that can be monitored and attributed
linking together all aspects of modern life and with digital surveillance, will become less com-
crossing political and societal boundaries. In- mon while new crimes, and potentially new
creasing speed and global access will provide forms of discrimination, could arise.
nations, corporations, and even individuals
New Cybersecurity Paradigms. Greater
with services and resources once limited to
connectivity almost certainly will increase the
prosperous countries. This hyperconnected
vulnerability of connected individuals, insti-
world is a future already beginning to emerge;
tutions and governments as the presence of
next generation networks, persistent sensors,
hundreds of billions of connected devices vast-
and myriad technologies will fuse together
ly increases the cyber-physical attack surface.
in a global system with billions of connected
In addition, cyber security enforcement based
devices. Today’s ubiquitous public cameras,
on geographic borders is likely to become less
for example, will lead to tomorrow’s smart
relevant in an increasingly global web.
cities, where optical and other sensors com-
bine with AI to monitor people, vehicles, and
BROADER IMPLICATIONS OF
infrastructure globally.
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
By some estimates, the current Internet of Emerging technologies are rapidly improving
Things, a precursor to a hyperconnected a broad range of human experiences and ca-
future, will reach 64 billion objects by 2025, pabilities, but at least in the short term, these
up from 10 billion in 2018—all monitored in same technologies may disrupt longstanding
real time. Looking forward, a hyperconnected systems and societal dynamics, forcing individ-
world could support up to 1 million devices uals, communities, and governments to adjust
per square kilometer with next generation and find new ways of living, working, and man-
cell phone systems (5G), compared with the aging. As with any disruption, some will thrive
60,000 devices currently possible with current whereas others will struggle, potentially facing
cell networks, with even faster networks on increasing inequalities and imbalances. Emerg-
the horizon. Networked sensors will become ing technologies are not solely responsible for
ubiquitous; more than 20 billion devices were the following developments, but they are likely
operative in 2020, and with new terrestrial to aggravate and amplify them.
networks combined with an increase in space-
NASA / Unsplash

A M O R E CO NT E STE D WO R L D 63
 Solving Problems Fast. As the global
COVID-19 vaccine development effort has
showcased, technologies—often integrated
in new and imaginative ways—can be quickly
reapplied from their original use to solve crisis
needs. The research that enabled the unprec-
edented and rapid development of effective
COVID-19 vaccines built on decades of foun-
dational investments in the health sciences.
Similarly, challenges decades in the making,
such as climate change, may be moderated
by bringing together suites of technological
solutions that each address one element of a
much larger issue.

Technology as Geopolitical Power. Technol-

ogy is a tool of national power that the United
States has long led through investments in re-
search, innovation, and development. The next
decades will see increasing global competition
for the core elements of technology suprem-
acy, such as talent, knowledge, and markets,
potentially resulting in new technological
leaders or hegemonies in the 2030s. Complex
international supply chains, the global diffu-
sion of innovation, and investments by geopo-
litical rivals could further impede the unilateral
use of technology by nations to achieve their
goals. Conditions are ripe for both greater
international cooperation as well as new types
of multifaceted competition and conflict that
could define the coming era.

Aggravating Social Tensions. The pace of

technological change could increase societal
tensions between those with the access, abili-
ty, and will to adapt and those who are unable
or unwilling to change. With the rapid spread
and adoption of technologies, some individu-
als, communities, and countries could make
rapid advancements while others may be left
behind with little hope of catching up, exacer-
bating inequalities within and between states.
Images / Bigstock

64 G LO B AL T R EN D S 2 0 4 0
Technological adoption also may outpace monitor their health are providing increasing
ethical maturity and regulation, creating per- amounts of data to governments and the
sistent and potentially corrosive social anxiety private sector. Governments, especially au-
and political divisions. These tensions could be thoritarian governments, will exercise unprec-
further inflamed by the use of manufactured edented surveillance capabilities to enforce
or AI targeted messaging such as deep fakes. laws and provide security while tracking and
de-anonymizing citizens and potentially target-
Complicating Government-Corporate Re-
ing individuals.
lationships. Public-private partnerships for
investment, research, and development have Stimulating Debates Over Openness. The
been critical for attaining many technological prospects of a hyperconnected world will
breakthroughs and advantages, but core cor- stimulate debates and divisions within and
porate and national interests do not naturally between states about the benefits and risks of
align. Large technology companies increasing- open, connected networks. As global networks
ly have resources, reach, and influence that ri- become increasingly interconnected, it may
vals and even surpasses some states. National be more difficult to maintain a segregated or
interests in maintaining technological control closed system, and efforts to block the broad-
and advantage as well as protecting national er Internet potentially could irreparably cut off
security can be at odds with corporate inter- closed systems from the global economy.
ests in expanding global market share and
Existential Risks. Technological advanc-
increasing profits.
es may increase the number of existential
Disrupting Industries and Jobs. The pace of threats; threats that could damage life on a
technological change, notably developments global scale challenge our ability to imagine
in advanced manufacturing, AI, and biotech- and comprehend their potential scope and
nology, may hasten disruptions to manufac- scale, and they require the development of re-
turing and global supply chains, eliminating silient strategies to survive. Technology plays a
some modes of production and jobs and role in both generating these existential risks
bringing supply chains closer to markets. and in mitigating them. Anthropomorphic
Shifting supply chains could disproportionate- risks include runaway AI, engineered pandem-
ly affect less advanced economies, while many ics, nanotechnology weapons, or nuclear war.
new jobs will require workers with improved Such low-probability, high-impact events are
or retooled skills. difficult to forecast and expensive to prepare
for but identifying potential risks and devel-
Enabling Governance, Threatening Free-
oping mitigation strategies in advance can
dom and Privacy. The technology-saturated
provide some resilience to exogenous shocks.
and hyperconnected future will offer leaders
and governments new tools to monitor their
populations, enabling better service provision
and security but also offering greater means
of control. The same technologies that em-
power citizens to communicate, organize, and

A M O R E CO NT E STE D WO R L D 65