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 CHENNAI, NEW DELHI, MUMBAI, BENGALURU, KOLKATA, AHMEDABAD, HYDERABAD, CHANDIGARH*, PUNE*, LUCKNOW* VOL. 19 NO. 6

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Think Ahead. Think Growth.

mint primer QUICK EDIT

The factors that Road fees

could push real are useful
Authorities in New York City
estate in 2025 have green-signalled a $9-con-
gestion fee on vehicles entering
the busiest parts of Manhattan
BY MADHURIMA NANDY during peak hours. As many as
Housing, commercial office and retail will see varying measures of 700,000 of them enter the cen-
growth this year. For housing, affordability will be key. Amid declining tral business district daily. The
real estate activity, particularly in housing, in the latter half of 2024, levy, it is hoped, will nudge a
how will the sector perform this year? Mint explains: shift to public transport. The $15
MINT billion expected from it will be
used to upgrade the city’s old
and creaky mass transit system.
This first-of-its-kind fee in the
US had faced resistance, includ-
ing legal challenges, with even
President-elect Donald Trump
having disapproved of it. But
with traffic so dense and its
fumes a problem, New Yorkers
should welcome the idea. Other
cities are ahead. Singapore uses
road pricing as a device to keep
traffic flowing, with charges
varying on a dynamic basis to
ease congestion by making
alternative routes cheaper.
How will the office Can the housing London too charges a road-fee
1 sector fare?
All eyes are on global capability
2 market recover?
Following the marginal dip in
during high-traffic hours that
gets higher as motorists go
centres (GCCs), which emerged as home sales and project launches closer to its central zone. That
the highest contributor in office last year, 2025 could mark a roads should be free or require
space leasing in 2024. GCCs, along transition after the post-pandemic a toll only to cover construction
with tech companies and flexible high. With launches slowing down costs is an old idea. As Indian
workspace operators, will drive the and pent-up demand used up in traffic worsens, its big cities
sector this year as well. New firms recent years, there could be a
must explore the idea of road
entering India and Indian corporates gradual declining trend in sales
would also contribute to the market. going forward, as per Liases Foras pricing. The charges could vary
Gross leasing of commercial office Research. Price appreciation has by vehicle cost, along a steeply
space touched a historic high of 79 led to some cities becoming a bit progressive scale, as well as by
million sq ft last year, as per property overheated, which could dissuade road-space demand and supply.
advisory CBRE India. However, investors and homebuyers. The
supply of Grade A office space is low euphoria over luxury housing
in key micro-markets in Mumbai projects may also wane, and the
and in Bengaluru. For leasing markets could correct and become
momentum to continue, a fresh realistic, thereby moving back to
QUOTE OF THE DAY
supply of good quality office space affordable and mid-income The country data for respiratory
needs to come in. housing projects.
MINT viruses available with ICMR and
integrated disease surveillance
3 How will the top developers
perform?
On the residential front, the four listed
programme has been reviewed and
no surge in any of the common
developers, DLF, Prestige Group, respiratory virus pathogens
Macrotech Developers, and Godrej
Properties, will continue to grow both in is observed in India.
sales and launches. Their collective target
to clock ₹88,000 crore of sales in 2024-25,
will be prompted by their financial
capabilities and aggressive expansion
plans, according to analysts. J P NADDA
UNION HEALTH
MINISTER

4 Will the retail sector

pick up?
Shopping malls saw healthy
5 Can the funding
momentum continue?
Institutional funding in real estate
leasing last year due to good hit a record in 2024, surpassing
demand from retailers, despite the 2007 peak by 6%, and INSIDE
minimal new supply. The retail underscoring the return of
mall landscape has also seen a investors. Investments worth $8.9 IT: Forget Q3 results, focus on
churn, with a shift towards billion were made last year, commentary >P4
premium offerings. Leasing is marking a 51% year-on-year Hidden costs of buying property:
expected to be higher in 2025 on increase, led by the residential Taxes and fees you just can’t avoid >P11
account of a large supply pipeline sector, as per JLL India. While it
Tweaked for flexibility, NPS awaits
and demand from foreign and may be tough to overtake the 2024
tax clarity >P12
domestic retailers. Around 9.7 peak, it is expected that the
million sq ft of new retail supply, funding momentum will continue Welfare programmes impact the retail
across 26 Grade A shopping malls, this year, with participation from prices relevant to people >P13
could get operational this year, both foreign and domestic For a balanced life, take the heroine’s
according to JLL India, led by investors. Funds pledged in 2024 journey >P14
Delhi-NCR (35%). could come in the next 3-5 years.

mint Budget Bites

THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO NARROW THE FISCAL DEFICIT

TO 4.5% OF GDP BY 2025-26, STAYING ON COURSE WITH ITS
FISCAL CONSOLIDATION GOALS.
Centre's gross fiscal deficit
(as a % of GDP)

₹ 4.9
2024-25**

6.1
2008-09
5.9
2023-24*

*Revised estimate;
**Budgeted estimate.
Data: Shuja Asrar
Design: Sarvesh Kumar Sharma Souce: Budget documents, CMIE
 PLAIN FACTS

Can the Centre meet its

capex target for FY25?
BY PRAGYA SRIVASTAVA

A
month ahead of the budget presentation, the central government is considering plans to ease conditions to give
50-year interest-free loans for capital expenditure to states to move closer to its aim for 2024-25. Last February, the
government had budgeted a moderate growth of 17.1% in capex, which includes transfers to states, down from an aver-
age increase of nearly 30% between FY21 and FY24. Despite the low growth aim, capex has been underwhelming so far.
As per the July budget documents, the capex through central expenditure was estimated to grow 14% from revised esti-
mates, while transfers (which include the capex loans to states) were estimated to grow
37%. Moreover, compared with the interim budget, the full budget lowered the Centre’s
capex by 2% and increased transfers by 14%, suggesting the limitations of the Centre in Liked this
effecting massive capex. story? Share it
This played out in the capex trend this year. Between April and July, capex was down by scanning
the QR code.
17.6% year-on-year due to general elections. While the capex improved slightly after the
new government took charge, it was still 6.5% lower between August and November.

The Centre targeted a lower capex ...yet spending by major ministries lags
growth for FY25... this year, transfers to states remain low
Year-on-year growth (in %) in capital expenditure Capital expenditure as % of Budget estimates in Apr-Nov,
top ministries
50
FY24 FY25

40 Road ministry

30 Railway ministry

20 Finance ministry

10 Defence ministry

0 Transfers to states

-10 Total
FY16 FY25
0 15 30 45 60 75
Data for FY24 are provisional estimates and FY25 are Budget estimates.
Source: Controller General of Accounts, CMIE

Over to the States

STATES’ CAPEX track record this year has also been poor due to general elections and assembly elections in several
states. According to a report by Icra, the combined capex of 20 major states was down 2.7% year-on-year in April-
November. Of the budgeted outlay for transfers to states, only 49.3% has been done until November, slightly better
than last year’s 48.6%, but still behind other ministries that carry out major capex. Overall, nearly all major ministries
have seen slower progress on capex.
The plan to ease norms for states is aimed at providing a last-minute boost to dwindling capex amid a slowdown in
GDP growth to 5.4% in July-September from 6.7% the previous quarter. The states have long demanded relaxations in
norms to carry out the capex.
According to a Mint report, states may see relaxation in some of the required reforms such as scrapping old
government vehicles and ambulances, improving urban planning and finance, building housing for police personnel
and establishing libraries with digital infrastructure at panchayat and ward levels for children and young adults.

The Centre is on track to miss budgeted

capex aim significantly
Inevitable Shortfall
Cumulative capital expenditure at the end of THE OUTLAY for capital expenditure through transfers is
each month (₹ trillion) nearly 15% of the total budgeted figure of ₹11.11 trillion, which
Actual Projected at current rate could make a slight difference if fully utilized. However, going by
Required rate for the aim the current trend of an average monthly capex of ₹64,188 crore,
10 Budget aim the Centre would only be able to carry out expenditures worth
₹11.11 trillion ₹7.7 trillion. Since capital expenditure is expected to pick up the
8 pace in the last quarter, the final figure may end up higher.
However, it is still unlikely to achieve the aim of ₹11.11 trillion.
6
“Despite the anticipated pick-up, we project capex to reach only
₹9.6 trillion, missing the full-year target,” CareEdge said in a
4
report last month.
While the Central government has relied heavily on capex to
2 ₹5.14 trillion support growth after the pandemic, questions have been raised
until Nov
0
about the economy’s absorption capacity for massive public
Apr Nov Jan Mar capex. The Centre had ended FY23 and FY24 with the actual
Source: Controller General of Accounts, Mint calculations
capex lower by 1.4% and 5.5%, respectively, compared with their
budget estimates. [email protected]

DATA REWIND
Data Rewind is an occasional Plain Facts feature that brings you interesting statistics and charts from yesteryear.
In 1952, the government of India India's New Year and other holidays: How we standardized
set up a calendar reform our calendar in the 1950s
committee to standardize the
Number of holidays proposed by the Calendar Reform Committee
Indian calendar. The committee's for a unified Indian calendar
task was to propose an accurate Holidays for
and uniform calendar for the Govt of Govt of India Selected states
India and and some/ but not for
whole country. The committee all states most states Govt of India
studied 30 different calendar
systems, including the Gregorian,
Fixed holidays and solar festivals 5 1 14
Islamic and traditional Hindu Lunar festivals 8 11 49
calendars, and listed down more Muslim festivals 4 1 7
than 360 festivals, classifying them Christian festivals 3 1 16
by region, religion and community.
After three years, the committee
submitted its final report in 1955, List of proposed pan-India holidays
leading to the adoption of a
 Republic Day  Janmashtami  Id-uz-Zuha
unified national calendar on 21
March 1956. The committee  Mahavisuva Day (year-ending day)  Dusshera  Muharram
proposed the new year on 21 or 22  India's New Year Day  Diwali  Id-e-Milad
March, a practice that is still used  Independence Day  Guru Nanak's Birthday  Christian (English)
in official communication. The 1 New Year's Day
January new year was described as  Mahatma Gandhi's birthday  Mahashivaratri
"Christian New Year".  Ramanavami  Holi  Christmas
 Buddha Purnima  Id-ul Fitr  Good Friday

Compiled by Shuja Asrar Source: Report of the Calendar Reform Committee, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research

PARAS JAIN/MINT

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025

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SENSEX 77,965.00 1,258.11 NIFTY 23,616.05 388.70 DOLLAR ₹85.83 ₹0.04 EURO ₹88.88 ₹0.62 OIL $77.56 $0.18 POUND ₹107.07 ₹0.66

Viral fear, growth Kotak backs lower

personal I-T, not
Five-yr plans
back at Niti
DON’T MISS
AFP

Aayog to cut
blues stalk Street higher corp taxes emissions
Puja Das
Stocks fall 1.6%, fear index up 16%; key indicator signals weakness Gopika Gopakumar & [email protected]
Satish John NEW DELHI
Caution at companies as
Ram Sahgal

F
ive-year plans that made HMPV cases surface in India
[email protected] fall risk MUMBAI
an unceremonious exit India Inc. is closely tracking the surge in cases

I
MUMBAI ndia should look to reduce nearly a decade ago are of Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV)—
Both Nifty and Sensex fell below a key 200-day indicator in an income tax for individuals making a quiet comeback, this which causes respiratory illness—in some

M
emories from a viral indication of weakness, while the fear index jumped nearly 16% than raise it for companies to time to handhold India’s decar- Southeast Asian nations following an
outbreak five years 24,004.75 shrink the gap between the bonization journey. outbreak in China, and have asked workers to
24,100 India Vix
ago returned on (Previous close) two, veteran banker Uday The government’s road map travel to these nations only if necessary. >P5
15.65
Monday to combine 24,045.8 16 Kotak suggested. to a green future till 2070 will
24,000 (Open)
with worries of Raising corporate income cover a dozen sectors including Services sector growth at
15.5
weak earnings, falling currency 23,900
tax rate when the economy energy, power, highways, and 4-month high in December
and slowing economic growth, Nifty 50 needs to revive animal spirits industries such as steel,
15 Business activity gained momentum in
whipping stocks and erasing ₹11 23,800
would send out a wrong signal, Wrong signal in corp tax hike, cement, iron and aluminium, December, driven by demand buoyancy in
trillion of investor wealth. 23,616.05 14.5 the Kotak Mahindra Bank says Uday Kotak SAMEER JOSHI/MINT two people familiar with the the services sector, rising to a four-month
The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 23,700
(Close) founder said. Kotak, who matter said. And charting five- high during the month, even as
crashed more than 1.5% each and 14 stepped down as the bank’s more individuals within the year plans for the transition is manufacturing growth slowed.The HSBC
the fear gauge Vix rose the most in CEO last year, now helms his zero-tax bracket, while Niti Aayog, the very entity that Services PMI rose to 59.3 in December. >P2
23,600
four months, on a day India 13.5 13.54 family office USK (Uday Suresh expressing concerns that the replaced the erstwhile Plan-
detected multiple cases of the Chi- Kotak) Capital. government may instead look ning Commission. SC transfers CCI’s e-commerce
23,500 13
nese-origin human metapneumo- 9.15am 3.30pm 9.15am 3.30pm “My personal view is that the at narrowing the gap by raising Once the roadmap is ready,
virus (HMPV). maximum marginal tax rate on corporate tax. sector-specific ministries will
cases to Karnataka High Court
Source: Bloomberg & NSE
Lacklustre quarterly updates by income to individuals should USK Capital invests in busi- decide on policies after secur- The Supreme Court has transferred to the
banks over the weekend signalling WIDE ANGLE be more like 33 or 35%, (down) nesses with long-term poten- ing necessary cabinet approval, Karnataka High Court all petitions
slower credit growth worsened from the current 39%. And if tial, while Kotak himself men- the people cited above said on challenging the Competition Commission
Japan’s Nikkei 225 indian markets China’s Shanghai of India’s (CCI’s) probe into alleged anti-
sentiment. Banking behemoth was the only other were the worst hit Composite ended you recollect, it used to be 42%, tors the next generation of the condition of anonymity. competitive practices by e-commerce
HDFC Bank reported credit major index to fall among EMs down just 0.14% which became 39%. Corporate business leaders. “Niti Aayog is helping to giants Amazon and Flipkart. >P5
growth of 3% on-year in its quar- tax rate is 25%. A fourth for cor- Kotak believes that the define how the country needs to
terly update for the third quarter of porates, a third marginal maxi- country is in a good shape transition, how the power sector
FY25, which disappointed mar- Sensex fell 1.59% to close at 15.58% to 15.65, signalling increas- mum for individuals in total- domestically, but said risks should look like, how much Morgan Stanley lowers hopes
kets. The bank’s shares closed 77,964.99. ing uncertainty, and the rupee ity,” Kotak said in an interview. cannot be ruled out on the solar and wind capacity is for India bond inflows
2.23% on the BSE. Monday’s fall dragged the two shed five paise to close at a fresh In 2019, the Centre cut external front. He also cau- required, how the industry Indian bonds included last year in a key global
Consequently, selling by foreign benchmarks below their 200-day low of 85.83 to the dollar. income tax rates for companies. tioned about the inflated valua- needs to transition and which benchmark will fail to draw as much money as
investors and fresh shorting of exponential moving averages The dollar index was down 0.3% With consumption and growth tion in stock markets. technologies are required, previously estimated, according to Morgan
derivatives dragged the Nifty and (EMAs) of 23,700 and 78,056. A fall at 108.5 on Monday, retreating cooling, there have been among others,” said one of the Stanley. Their prediction comes as markets
Sensex down. The Nifty slid below below EMA is an indictor of weak- from an over two-year high, but demands to reduce the tax bur- two people, who is part of cli- everywhere prepare for a volatile 2025,
Read the full interview marked by tariff disputes. >P4
the psychological 24,000 mark, ness in the market. den on individuals too. with Uday Kotak >P10
tanking 1.62% to 23,616.05, and the Meanwhile, the India Vix surged TURN TO PAGE 6 Kotak called for bringing TURN TO PAGE 6
02 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI ECONOMY & POLICY LIVEMINT.COM

India eyes
m MINT SHORTS
Trade unions seek pay parity,
Green MSME policy for tech, $107-bn pvt
higher pensions, social security
New Delhi: Trade union leaders urged the government to take
steps to boost employment and productivity, raise pensions for
those covered under the Employees’ Pension Scheme (EPS), the
financial aid likely in budget capital to
widen grid
immediate constitution of the 8th Pay Commission in pre-budget
consultations besides making provisions for minimum wages and Bloomberg
social security at their pre-budget consultation meeting with the [email protected]
finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday. RHIK KUNDU A body would be created under the MSME ministry to oversee implementation of the policy
I
ndia is asking states to attract
more private capital to accel-
Government launches PLI 1.1 Rituraj Baruah & Manas Pimpalkhare kets increasingly emphasize ESG (envi- erate the expansion of its
ronment, social and governance) com- power transmission network,
scheme for speciality steel NEW DELHI
pliance and quality standards, MSEs part of a plan to revamp the

T
BLOOMBERG
he government is likely to must modernize to remain competitive. country’s grid and accommo-
announce a policy in the Failure to upgrade their operations date more clean power.
upcoming budget for green- could lead to the dominance of interna- States should monetize their
ing the operations of micro, tional companies in the Indian market, transmission assets by transfer-
small and medium enter- potentially displacing domestic busi- ring ownership to businesses
prises (MSME) and lowering their car- nesses." for a period of time, and rein-
bon emissions. The industry body in its recommen- vest the proceeds into new pro-
Two people aware of the develop- dation to the government has high- jects, according to a report by
ment said that the ministry of MSME has lighted the need for establishing dedi- the federal government’s Cen-
recommended the Union finance minis- cated funds aimed at supporting the tral Electricity Authority.
try to roll out the policy under which the technological upgradation of these Power regulators should
Centre would provide financial, techno- smaller businesses. design a pricing system that
logical and regulatory support to these "Sustainability has evolved from guarantees predictable reve-
New Delhi: The government on Monday opened applica- small businesses in the backdrop of being a mere option to an imperative for nues for investors, it said.
tions for a new version of the production-linked incentive India's aim to achieve net zero carbon Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises The nation plans to invest
scheme (PLI) to initiate local manufacture of speciality emissions by 2070. (MSMEs) seeking to remain competitive ₹9.2 trillion through 2032 to
steel. Steel producers have till 31 January to seek incentives A body would be created under the Sustainable initiatives or operations would include use of renewable energy and and relevant in an increasingly eco-con- build more transmission lines,
under PLI 1.1 based on production commitment of steel MSME ministry to oversee its imple- lowering of emissions and more focus towards achieving circular economy. BLOOMBERG scious global marketplace," India SME as it seeks to nearly triple its
grades that are not made in the country.SUBHASH NARAYAN mentation. Forum said in its recommendation. clean power capacity by then.
Sustainable initiatives or operations "Sustainable measures and greening enterprise would require higher finan- The consideration to come up with a New networks are also needed
would include use of renewable energy of operations come with an added cost. cial support along with stringent regula- policy gains significance in the wake of to haul power from coal plants
Veg thali cost jumps 6% y-o-y in and lowering of emissions and more The intention is to provide a cushion to tory oversight, the person said. the European Union's Carbon Border planned to meet demand.
focus towards achieving circular econ- these businesses through a multi- Queries sent to the union ministries Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which A third of the investments
Dec on pricey potatoes, tomatoes omy including use of recycled products pronged approach, fiscal, technology of MSME and finance remained unan- mandates higher taxes on imports of needs be spent into regional
New Delhi: The cost of a home-cooked vegetarian thali rose 6% and also adopting proper waste man- and also regulatory support swered till press time. products to EU, which have resulted in networks, where the grid is
year-on-year (y-o-y) to ₹31.60 in December from ₹29.70 a year agement, among others. to ensure compliance with Businesses with a reve- higher carbon emissions. controlled mostly by state-run
ago, driven by a sharp rise in vegetable prices, Crisil Ltd said on "Under this policy an institutional both domestic and global nue of up to Rs 5 crore are Exports form a major chunk of the firms. “Given other social and
Monday. The spike in the price of staples such as potatoes and framework would be created for effec- norms." classed as micro enter- businesses of Indian MSMEs. So far in economic needs, it may not be
tomatoes—which account for 24% of a vegetarian thali’s cost – tive implementation of green and envi- The second person said prises while those with a FY25, value of India's MSME exports feasible for governments to
fuelled the rise. Meanwhile, the cost of a non-vegetarian thali rose ronment-friendly measures. So, a new that the approach may dif- revenue of Rs 5-50 crore stands above Rs 12 trillion, according to continue this high level of pub-
12% y-o-y to ₹63.30 from ₹56.40 a year ago. DHIRENDRA KUMAR body would be set up oversee the imple- fer as per the size of the are categorized as small data from the MSME ministry. In the last lic financing of infrastructure,”
mentation of the policy, compliance of entity. A medium-sized enterprise, with enterprises. financial year (FY24), supplies from the report said. “There is a need
the norms and handholding the smaller over Rs 50 crore revenue, would not Vinod Kumar, president of India SME MSMEs accounted for 45.73% of India's to increase private investment.
Jaishankar, Sullivan review businesses which are yet to move require much financial support, but Forum said: "There is also a need to total exports. Monetization of brown-field
towards these sustainable initiatives," would need more of technological sup- focus on three aspects -- financial needs, [email protected] assets offers a less risky, more
India-US ties in past four years said one of the two people mentioned port and an oversight to ensure emission technological support and adherence to For an extended version of this story, go attractive way for private
PTI
above. compliance, while a micro or small high quality standards. As global mar- to livemint.com. investment.”

Finally, US nuclear Services sector growth at 4-month high

ties with Indian cos Rhik Kundu
[email protected]
Buoyed sector
Services PMI has been above
omy to grow at 6.5% in 2024-25,
while the Reserve Bank of India
NEW DELHI
the 50-point threshold for 41 estimates a 6.6% growth aided
Reuters “United States is now finaliz- by rural consumption, govern-
straight months.

B
[email protected] ing the necessary steps to usiness activity gained India's PMI services, monthly ment investment, and strong
NEW DELHI remove long-standing regula- momentum in Decem- 63 services exports.
New Delhi: External affairs minister S. Jaishankar on Mon- tions that have prevented civil ber, driven by demand India’s manufacturing growth

T
day held talks with US National Security Adviser Jake Sulli- he US government is in the nuclear cooperation between buoyancy in the services sector, slowed to a 12-month low in
61
van, broadly reviewing the trajectory of India-US global process of removing India’s leading nuclear entities rising to a four-month high December amid a softer increase
strategic partnership in the past four years under the Biden restrictions on Indian and US companies,” Sullivan during the month, even as 59.3 in factory orders and production.
administration. Sullivan is on a visit to India, two weeks nuclear entities, National Secu- said at an event in New Delhi on manufacturing growth slowed. 59 The HSBC India Manufac-
ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th presi- rity Adviser Jake Sullivan said on the second day of a two-day Output growth rose during 59 turing PMI dropped to 56.4 in
dent of the US. PTI Monday, in a bid to forge deeper visit. It was not immediately the month as firms recruited December from 56.5 in
57
energy ties with New Delhi and clear what changes would be additional workers, indicated Dec 2023 Dec 2024 November, and was below
bolster a 20-year old landmark made to the regulation, and US an HSBC survey of 400 service A reading above 50 denotes expansion, October's 57.5 and September's
IEX achieves highest-ever monthly nuclear deal. and Indian officials did not providers. Services output growth rose in while one below 50 indicates
contraction.
56.5 readings.
Washington and New Delhi share any further details. The HSBC India Services December as firms recruited But India’s services sector
electricity traded volume in Dec have been dis- “The formal Purchasing Managers’ Index additional workers. MINT
Source: S&P Global, HSBC
provides optimism.
SARVESH KUMAR SHARMA/MINT
New Delhi: Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) on Monday said it has cussing supply of India and the US paperwork will be (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, “India’s services companies
achieved its highest-ever monthly electricity traded volume of US nuclear reac- have been done soon, but rose to 59.3 in December, up forty-first month in a row, but growth rate for that fiscal year. expressed strong optimism in
11,132 million units (MU) in December, marking a 29% increase on tors to energy- discussing the this will be an from 58.4 in November, 58.5 in also to the greatest extent since However, GDP growth sof- December as business activity
a year-on-year basis. During the month, IEX traded 1.662 million hungry India supply of US opportunity to October, and 57.7 in Septem- August 2024,” it added. tened to 6.7% in the first quar- growth surged to a four-month
renewable energy certificates, recording a 58% year-on-year (y-o-y) since the mid-
nuclear reactors turn the page on ber. It has been above the The services sector—a cor- ter of 2024-25, its slowest pace high. Forward-looking indica-
increase, an IEX statement said. For the nine months of the fiscal 2000s and a deal some of the fric- 50-point threshold that distin- nerstone of India’s in five quarters. tors such as new business and
year 2025, IEX achieved electricity traded volume of 88,981MU, signed by then to India since the tions of the past guishes expansion from con- economy—con- Manufacturing India’s economic future activity suggested that the
marking a 19% y-o-y increase, according to the statement. PTI President George mid-2000s and create oppor- traction for 41 straight months. tributes more growth slowed to growth further strong performance will likely
W. Bush in 2007 tunities for enti- During December, there was than half of the a 12-month low in slowed to 5.4% in continue in the near future,” said
allowed the US to ties that have been a softer increase in cost bur- country’s gross December amid a the second quar- Ines Lam, an economist at HSBC.
BIS needs to consider hallmarking sell civilian nuclear technology on restricted lists in the United dens, though greater outlays on domestic product,
softer increase in ter of FY25, the “The easing of input price
to India. States to come off those lists,” food, labour, and materials or GDP. slowest in nearly inflation in the month also sup-
silver jewellery: Pralhad Joshi But a longstanding obstacle he added. were reported as selling price India's econ- factory orders two years, owing ported business sentiment.
New Delhi: Food and consumer affairs minister Pralhad Joshi has been the need to bring The US had curbed more inflation also eased during the omy surged 8.2% and production to a slowdown in Strength in the services PMI
on Monday asked the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) to con- Indian liability rules in line with than 200 Indian entities after month, the survey said. in fiscal year manufacturing stands in contrast with the
sider implementing mandatory hallmarking for silver and silver global norms which require the India tested nuclear weapons in “Buoyant underlying 2023-24, bol- and urban con- growing signs of a slowdown in
artifacts following consumer demands. “There is a demand costs of any accident to be 1998, but many have been demand was identified by com- stered by a 7.8% expansion in sumption and disappointing the manufacturing industry,”
from consumers for mandatory hallmarking of silver. You (BIS) channelled to the operator taken off the list as bilateral ties panies as the primary factor the January-March 2024 quar- corporate earnings. Lam added.
can deliberate and take a call,” Joshi said at the 78th BIS Foun- rather than the maker of a evolved, an Indian official said, behind output growth. Not only ter and surpassing the Reserve The ministry of finance For an extended version of
dation Day event. PTI nuclear power plant. requesting anonymity. did new orders increase for the Bank of India’s projected 7% recently said it expects the econ- this story, go to livemint.com.

House panel to review CDSCO’s performance in curbing spurious drugs CORRECTIONS AND
CLARIFICATIONS
Mint welcomes comments,
Priyanka Sharma along with Central Drugs joint investigation by the West dient (bulk drug) manufac- were declared “not of standard suggestions or complaints
[email protected] Standard Control Organiza- Bengal government seized a tured or imported in India to quality” while 282 drug sam- about errors.
NEW DELHI tion (CDSCO) on the subject to large quantity of anti-cancer, bear a quick response code on ples were found to be spurious
Readers can alert the
review the performance of anti-diabetic and other drugs its label at each level of pack- or adulterated.
newsroom to any errors in the

A
parliamentary panel regulatory authorities for suspected to be spurious. aging to facilitate tracking and Meanwhile, to ensure the paper by emailing us, with your
will review the per- stringent control of spurious “In all cases of spurious tracing. quality of drugs full name and address to
formance of the Cen- and fake medicines,” an offi- drugs based on investigation, “The stored The government manufactured by [email protected].
tral Drugs Standard Control cial aware of the matter said. necessary actions are being data or informa- has also made it MSME drug
Organization (CDSCO) in Based on representations, taken by licensing authorities tion shall include firms, the govern- It is our policy to promptly
mandatory for respond to all complaints.
checking the sale of spurious the parliamentary committee concerned by prosecuting the the minimum 300 lifesaving ment has Readers dissatisfied with the
and fake medicines. on affordable medicines and offenders under the provisions particulars extended the
drugs to have response or concerned about
This comes against the health products will give its of Drugs and Cosmetics Act, including unique timeline for Mint’s journalistic integrity may
backdrop of growing com- suggestions to the ministry of 1940,” the official said, and product identifi- quick response revised Schedule write directly to the editor by
plaints about the circulation of health and department of The House panel will give its suggestions to the ministry of health added that the government cation code, codes M Good Manu- sending an email to
counterfeit and substandard pharmaceuticals, added the and department of pharmaceuticals. has also made it mandatory for batch number, facturing Prac- [email protected]
drugs in the market. official. 300 lifesaving drugs to have manufacturing tices (GMP) com- Mint’s journalistic Code of
“There’s a briefing by the “The government has a market. The CDSCO and state spurious drugs and to safe- QR codes. date, expiry date, etc.” pliance by one year till Conduct that governs our
representatives of department zero-tolerance policy towards authorities will continue to guard the interests of consum- In 2023, the government According to government 31 December. Next, it will newsroom is available at
of pharmaceuticals and minis- the circulation of counterfeit work in close coordination to ers,” the official added. made it mandatory for every data, during the year 2023-24, come into force from 1 January www.livemint.com
try of health and family welfare and substandard drugs in the combat the threat posed by Last week, the CDSCO in a Active Pharmaceutical Ingre- around 2,988 drug samples 2026.

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LIVEMINT.COM DEALS, TECH & STARTUPS TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI 03

m MINT SHORTS
Consint.AI bags ₹5 crore from
D2C brands seek alternative Airtel, VI
sell holdings
Equanimity Ventures, others
New Delhi: Generative AI-driven healthcare insurance fraud
and risk management company Consint.AI has raised ₹5 crore in
a seed round led by Equanimity Ventures and Seafund. In a state-
financiers as Q-comm surges in Wi-Fi JV
Firefly
ment, the firm announced that the fresh funds will be used to
scale operations through expanded sales outreach and to acceler- PTI
ate the development of its Generative AI Feature Suite for its [email protected]
Health AI Platform. The enhancements will include improved Alternative financing models offer quick access to capital without diluting equity NEW DELHI
fraud detection, optimized claims processing, and personalised

T
clinical care solutions. It also plans to upgrade its infrastructure elecom operators
and invest in R&D efforts. Founded in 2020 by Ashish Chatur- Sowmya Ramasubramanian & As quick commerce emerges as one Bharti Airtel and Voda-
vedi and later joined by Swadeep Singh as co-founder, Consint.AI Mansi Verma of the fastest-growing channels for con- fone Idea have sold
specializes in using Generative AI to address healthcare fraud and sumer brands, the need for agile work- their entire stake in Wi-Fi
optimize claims transactions. NITESH KUMAR BENGALURU/MUMBAI ing capital and growth capital has never infrastructure company Fire-
been greater, Vasa said. “Brands are fly Networks to iBus Network

A
s quick commerce plat- scaling rapidly, requiring significant and Infrastructure for ₹9
Adani teams up with Thailand’s forms like Blinkit, Swiggy inventory and marketing capital to crore, the telcos said in sepa-
Instamart, and Zepto rev- seize this immense opportunity,” he rate regulatory filings on
Indorama for petchem foray olutionize consumer said. Many startups struggle to raise Monday.
AFP
shopping habits, direct-to- capital from traditional lenders such as FireFly Networks Limited
consumer (D2C) brands are increas- banks and non-banking financing com- is a 50-50 joint venture
ingly turning to alternative financiers panies (NBFC) given their conservative between Vodafone Idea and
to secure larger working capital needed approach. Moreover, lengthy approval Bharti Airtel Ltd. “Bharti Air-
to stay competitive. processes further dent the experience. tel Ltd has entered into a
Platforms like Recur Club, GetVan- Alternative debt instruments like Share Purchase Agreement
tage, Velocity, and Klub are stepping in cash flow and revenue-based financing with iBus Network and Infra-
to meet this demand, offering innova- models have emerged popular among structure Private Ltd for
tive debt solutions tailored to the fast- young startups in recent years, offering transfer of Company’s entire
paced, quick commerce ecosystem. a quick way to secure financing without stake (50%) in Firefly Net-
Delhi-based debt marketplace Recur diluting equity. works Ltd,” Airtel said in a fil-
Club has disbursed as much as ₹150 Recur Club takes a portion of the ing.
New Delhi: Billionaire Gautam Adani’s group has teamed crore to consumer startups to fuel their brand’s monthly or quarterly sales The deal is expected to
up with Thailand’s Indorama Resources Ltd for a foray into quick commerce ambitions in the last depending on the arrangement, typi- close within 30 business
the petrochemical business as the ports-to-energy con- four months alone, a 3x jump from the cally in the range of 15-30%. Brands can days from the date of execu-
glomerate looks to expand in adjacencies. Adani Petro- previous four months, founder Eklavya Firms younger than one to two years with revenue less than ₹70-75 lakh per month secure up to two-four times their tion of the agreement
chemicals Ltd, a subsidiary of the group’s flagship Gupta told Mint. are keen to tap alternative financing as they scale. MINT monthly quick commerce sales as capi- between the firms. “The
Adani Enterprises Ltd, “has completed the incorporation “The last few months have seen tal, founder Gupta added. The financier Company will receive ₹45
process of a joint venture company namely Valor Petro- almost 3x growth in debt financing Pilgrim has seen its working capital companies growing from ₹50-70 lakh has also partnered with a quick com- million for the sale of its
chemicals Ltd (VPL)... with Indorama Resources Ltd, Thai- requirements, proportionate to growth requirements double in the last 12 a month to nearly ₹1.5 crore, all because merce platform to provide brands eas- entire stake (50%) held in
land,” Adani Enterprises said in a stock exchange filing. thanks to quick commerce. Even months compared to the previous year, of quick commerce,” Gupta added. ier access to quick credit, Gupta said, Firefly,” Vodafone Idea said
Adani Petrochemicals and Indorama will hold 50% stake e-commerce was much lower before,” its founder Anurag Kedia told Mint. Meanwhile, GetVantage, which declining to name the platform. in a separate filing.
each in the joint venture. “VPL is incorporated with the Gupta said. Recur Club has financed The firm’s quick commerce business serves brands including WickedGud While alternative financing models Firefly manages and mone-
objective to set up a refinery, petrochemical and chemical over 200 consumer brands and more has doubled in the last five-six months and Arata, saw financing to consumer offer quick access to capital without tises Wi-Fi hotspots by pro-
business,” it said. PTI than half of them sell on at least one alone and is expected to grow further in brands rise nearly 180% last quarter diluting equity, they come with their viding the best Wi-Fi infra-
quick commerce platform. own set of challenges. Interest on structure to partners like edu-
Brands primarily use these loans help in expansion these loans can sometimes exceed cational institutes, hospitals,
Spintly secures ₹3.5 crore from to expand inventory for faster stock 20%, making it an expensive option malls, cafes, public hangouts
replenishment at dark stores. Brands primarily some brands also These short-term Beauty, personal for young startups that have lim- and markets, transit points
Spyre VC, Accel India, others These short-term loans help use these loans to use the money to loans help brands care, and apparel ited cash flow. and corporate parks across
expand inventory for finance their meet rising demand brands have
New Delhi: Spintly, a provider of access control and smart build- brands meet rising demand as busi- faster replenishment marketing as biz grows on the emerged as the top “New-age fintech players are tai- the major Indian cities.
ing solutions, has raised ₹3.5 crore in a funding round led by ness grows on the back of quick at dark stores expenditure back of quick comm borrowers lor-made for this dynamic ecosys- Backed by marquee inves-
Spyre VC, a PropTech venture capital fund. The round also saw commerce. tem. They offer fast, flexible, and tors like the National Invest-
participation from Accel India, Chakra Growth Fund, Alumni Some brands also use the money innovative financial solutions that ment and Infrastructure
Ventures, and Doctor Technology, among others. Previously, to finance their marketing spends, the next six months. Nascent consumer compared to the previous year. align with the evolving needs of mod- Fund and International
Spintly had secured funding from investors such as LetsVenture, according to Recur Club’s Gupta. brands are following suit, too. Firms “Consumer brands will require as ern startups, empowering them to Finance Corporation, iBUS
Riso Capital, Sucseed Indovation, and Accel Nest. With the latest Demand from beauty-personal care younger than one to two years with rev- much as ₹1.66 trillion in credit to seize thrive in an ultra-competitive land- Network and Infrastructure
infusion, Spintly aims to accelerate its market expansion, and apparel brands is the highest, he enue less than ₹70-75 lakh per month the ₹8.3 trillion quick commerce mar- scape,” said Ninad Karpe, founder and specialises in providing
enhance its presence in multiple countries, strengthen its senior added. are keen to tap alternative financing as ket opportunity in India by 2029,” said partner, 100X.VC. in-building telecom network
management team, and broaden the scope of its smart building Fireside and Vertex Ventures- they scale, Recur Club’s Gupta added. Bhavik Vasa, founder of embedded For an extended version of this story, solutions and Wi-Fi man-
solutions by leveraging AI and machine learning. NITESH KUMAR backed beauty and personal care brand “We’ve seen some of our portfolio finance firm GetVantage. go to livemint.com aged services.

Funding Warburg Pincus Crafting Bharat: Deep-tech edition—Speciale Invest

in space names two MDs to shaping the deep-tech venture capital landscape
industry of
India falls expand India team I
n a world increasingly driv-
en by innovation and tech-
nological breakthroughs,
deep-tech is more than a busi-
ness choice; it’s about cham-
pioning innovation that holds
Roshan Abraham India is carving its place at the the potential to create a lasting
55% in 2024 [email protected]
BENGALURU
forefront of transformative
solutions. Traditionally,
impact.

India’s venture capital land- What do you wish to leave

Reuters

P
rivate equity firm War- scape has been dominated by behind as your legacy?
[email protected] burg Pincus, which was sectors such as e-commerce, My ultimate goal is for
BENGALURU one of the most active PE FinTech, and SaaS. These Speciale to evolve into an
investors in India in 2024, has industries, with their rapid enduring organisation that

F
unding in India’s space expanded its leadership team
go-to-market strategies and outlasts its founders and con-
sector, a key part of the in the country by appointing
clear revenue models, have tinues to bring the best of
country’s ambitions to two new managing directors.
become a global superpower, The appointments take the produced a plethora of uni- Indian technology to the
plummeted by 55% in 2024 to number of executives at the corns, cementing India’s repu- global stage. If Speciale can
$59.1 million from $130.2 mil- MD level in New York-based tation as a global startup hub. Vishesh Rajaram, Managing Partner at Speciale Invest, in conversation with Nithish Kumar, consistently identify and sup-
lion the previous year, accord- Warburg’s India team to eight. However, a notable shift is investment analyst at Speciale Invest port transformative ideas
ing to data from market intelli- The PE firm has named The PE firm has named Hemant underway as venture capital- while staying true to its mis-
gence platform Tracxn. Hemant Mundra and Swapnil Mundra as one of the MDs. ists turn their focus toward the thrill of backing bold ideas to of Speciale as a startup disbelief. With Agnikul, we sion, I would consider that a
The drop, which came amid Sinha as MDs, according to less explored yet immensely navigating the uncertainties itself ? were involved from the very meaningful legacy.
a global 20% decline in space social media posts. Both were 2017 as a vice president. Before promising domain of deep- of early-stage investments, Absolutely. Speciale is no inception of their journey. The
sector investment, marks the previously principals at Warb- Warburg, he worked at Indian tech. This transition reflects Rajaram shares his insights on different from any other start- process was riddled with
first fall in at least five years. urg. They join Narendra Osta- PE firm Kedaara Capital with a a growing emphasis on sus- the entrepreneurial spirit that up, except that we are in the doubts and hurdles—attend- Advice for
Globally, space companies rai- wal, Anish Saraf, Viraj focus on the financial services,
sed about $28 billion over the Sawhney, Vikram Chogle, consumer, and industrials sec-
tainable business models with fuels Speciale’s success. business of funding startups. ing multiple meetings that aspirants
last five years, while their Ind- Sandeel Kagzi and Himanshu tors for three years and served tangible impacts, Speciale is a startup that funds didn’t yield results, grappling Be curious and stay
particularly in What drew you to other startups. The philoso- with uncertainties, and ques- grounded. Patience and
ian counterparts secured Nema as MDs in the firm’s as a senior associate in his last curiosity are the
about $354 million in the same Mumbai office. Ostawal, who posting at the company. areas like artificial become a venture phy we operate with is rooted tioning whether success was cornerstones of a successful
period, Tracxn data showed. joined Warburg in 2007, is the As per his LinkedIn profile, intelligence, where capitalist? in innovation and the pursuit even possible. Watching the venture capital career.
India’s space industry has firm’s India head of PE. Mundra has a management initial exuberance Becoming a ven- of uncharted territories in sci- rocket launch eventually Develop a strong sense of
gained global attention with Before Mundra and Sinha, degree from IIM Ahmedabad. is giving way to t u r e c a p i t a l i s t ence and technology. Like any materialise was profoundly empathy to connect with
founders and their journeys.
the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lan- Nema was the last Sinha joined War- measured, strategic wasn’t something I startup, we face the challenges gratifying. On the other hand, At the same time, cultivate
ding and the Aditya-L1 solar executive promoted burg in 2016. He investments. set out to pursue of raising capital, building an Ultraviolette’s journey was analytical rigour to make
probe launch. Its private space to MD, in January focuses on invest- To c e l e b r a t e initially. My early organisation, and simultane- about redefining excellence informed decisions. Last, be
sector growth is increasingly 2024. Nema overs- ments in the technol- these innovators, Speciale l i f e wa s s p e n t ously making impactful in an already established mar- prepared for the long
seen as crucial for achieving ees the firm’s investments in ogy, media, telecom and Ne wsReach h a s Invest o b s e r v i n g m y investments. Thinking of our- ket. The challenge was to
game—it takes years to see
the results of your
the long-term goal a $44 bil- pharmaceutical and healthc- industrials sectors.
launched a special father build a busi- selves as a startup keeps us stand out, deliver a flawless investments.
lion private space economy. are services. Mundra’s forte Before Warburg, he wor-
The government has sought lies in financial services and ked at Barclays in London as edition called Crafting Bharat: ness, which instilled in me a agile and driven. Agility allows product, and ensure that even
to stimulate the sector with a consumer investments at an investment banker. He is a D ee p -tech, p o we r e d by fascination for entrepreneur- us to respond quickly, make the first vehicle delivered to
₹1,000 crore ($119 million) Warburg. He is on the board of director at Imperial Auto Ind- Innovation Venture Studio in ship. When I stumbled into faster decisions, and embrace a customer was perfect. Stay tuned to Crafting
fund in October to support companies like Avanse Finan- ustries and previously served association with Speciale venture capital, I realised it the fluidity required in this Bharat: Deep-tech, as we
startups and expand India’s cial Services, Vistaar Finance, on the boards of Good Host Invest, BYT Avenue, and Faad was the perfect alignment of space. I firmly believe that Why did you choose to continue to bring you
share of the global commercial Shriram Housing Finance and Spaces, R Retail Ventures, Capital, this initiative brings my passion for working along- even an organisation as large build a deep-tech venture stories of India’s most
innovative founders. These
space market by 2033. Parksons Packaging. Embassy Industrial Parks, and you inspiring stories of the side builders and my desire to as an elephant can run like a capital firm out of India? are the people turning bold
Industry participants said Mundra joined Warburg in CleanMax Enviro Solutions. visionaries shaping India’s help them succeed by provid- horse if it embraces the start- This decision was about ideas into reality and
they expect to see a pickup in tech landscape. ing a unique vantage point. up mindset. staying true to who we are. redefining what’s possible.
funding in 2025. In this episode, Nithish Over time, I’ve come to appre- Arjun and I thrive in ambigu-
In 2023, India’s space sector Kumar investment analyst at ciate the privilege of being Can you share how you felt ous situations and naturally
hit a peak of $130.2 million, a To watch the
Speciale Invest, speaks with able to support and challenge when milestones like the gravitate towards pre-seed
near 33% rise from 2022, episodes of
driven by steps supporting sat- Vishesh Rajaram, managing founders, helping them navi- Ultraviolette bike or the and seed-stage investments.
Crafting
ellite technology, launch vehi- partner, Speciale Invest, to gate their blind spots and scale A g n i k u l ’ s l a u n c h Deep-tech appealed to us Bharat, scan
cles, and space exploration. explore the philosophy and their vision. materialised? because it represents an the QR code
“The decline aligns with the passion behind becoming a The overwhelming emo- unparalleled opportunity for
natural investment cycles of venture capitalist. From the Do you, in many ways, think tion in moments like these is value creation. For us, Created by Mint Brand Studio
the industry,” said Pawan
Chandana, founder of Skyroot
Aerospace. “As leading com-
panies approach critical mile-
stones in 2025, investment
activity is likely to pick up.”
04 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI MARK TO MARKET LIVEMINT.COM

S&P BSE Sensex Nifty 50 Nifty 500 Nifty Next 50 Nifty 100 S&P BSE Mid-cap S&P BSE Small Cap
CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE

77,964.99 -1.59 23,616.05 -1.62 22,225.40 -2.13 66,996.80 -3.17 24,404.60 -1.91 45,793.07 -2.44 54,337.37 -3.17
PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN

79,223.11 79,281.65 24,004.75 24,045.80 22,708.15 22,753.65 69,192.45 69,280.60 24,879.85 24,920.40 46,936.08 47,055.60 56,116.21 56,286.50
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

79,532.67 77,781.62 24,089.95 23,551.90 22,757.40 22,163.55 69,280.60 66,759.60 24,929.15 24,335.25 47,121.95 45,669.59 56,303.76 54,223.81

IT: Focus on commentary, not Q3

Harsha Jethmalani pricing pressure due to competition LTIMindtree Ltd and Cyient Ltd
[email protected]
Low hopes amid constrained client budgets. could report a sequential margin fall
Expectations from Q3FY25 earnings of IT companies are muted due to There’s a worry the US Fed’s hawkish due to wage hikes.

T
he December quarter seasonal weakness. tone on future rate cuts might influ- “For tier-I companies, we expect
(Q3FY25) is seasonally Ebit margin (in %) Quarter-on-quarter estimated change in Q3FY25 (in %) ence client budgets. Typically, clarity margins to see a fluctuation of –140
weak for the Indian IT sec- 25 Constant currency revenue US Dollar revenue emerges by January/February. basis points (bps) to +100bps, while
tor due to furloughs and “Don’t expect much clarity to we expect margins to vary by -160bps
4.5
fewer working days. Thus, 20
Coforge
3.8 emerge as clients might wait for to 60bps q-o-q for mid-caps,” said a 1
no fireworks are anticipated. So, Q3 4.2
(Donald) Trump to take January Emkay Global The prediction comes as markets brace for a volatile 2025 amid
HCL Technologies
results would offer little help in gaug-
15
3.4 office (20 January) before CLOUDS Financial Services tariff disputes expected under Trump’s second term. BLOOMBERG
ing demand momentum. 1.4 firming up their plans,” LOOM report. The rupee’s

Morgan Stanley
LTIMindtree
Even so, wide-held expectations 1.1 said a JM Financial Insti- depreciation against the
are that year-on-year (y-o-y) revenue 10 0.3 tutional Securities report SEGMENT-wise, dollar could buoy Q3
growth will start gradually improv- -0.4 Infosys on 31 December. “Any while some recovery margins sequentially.
in BFSI would help,
ing from Q3 onwards, aided by lower
project cancellations, the beginning
of the US Federal Reserve's interest
5

0 -1.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.3
Tech Mahindra

Tata Consultancy Services

spillover of furloughs weakness in mfg and
(like FY24) into Q4 could retail could hurt
be concerning. Durabil-
Nifty IT has rallied 25%
so far in FY25, beating
Nifty 50’s single-digit
lowers hopes for
rate cut cycle, and the end of uncer- Q3FY23 Q3FY25 E ity of smaller deals could REGION-wise returns. Hopes of reve-
tainties surrounding the US election.
However, sequential performance
will be muted. “We expect aggregate
Note: Ebit is earnings before interest
and tax; Aggregate data for Jefferies
coverage universe; E: estimated
-0.9
-1.0
Wipro

Source: Company data, Jefferies India estimates

tionary spend revival.”
Europe may lag,
be a precursor to discre- while recovery in
North America
nue recovery in FY26
and a weaker rupee have
Accenture raised FY25 warrants close watch led to a re-rating in IT
India bond inflows
revenue growth for our coverage to SATISH KUMAR/MINT
constant currency reve- stocks. Earnings Bloomberg US president, as well by a US
moderate slightly in Q3 to 0.7% quar- outlook, budget indicators for 2025, Region-wise, Europe could nue growth guidance to upgrades would depend [email protected] dollar seen staying strong as the
ter-on-quarter (q-o-q) constant cur- and prospects of short-duration remain a drag; the sustenance of 4-7% from 3-6%. An upward revision on whether growth meets the American economy remains

I
rency (3.9% y-o-y constant currency), deals, which have been muted lately. green shoots in the North American by Infosys Ltd, HCL Technologies Street’s elevated expectations. ndian bonds included last resilient. That would exert
given the usual furloughs,” said a 31 Segment-wise, while some recov- market would be closely watched. Ltd and Wipro Ltd would be a senti- According to Jefferies, Nifty IT’s year in a key global bench- pressure on emerging market
December Jefferies India report. ery is likely in banking, financial ser- Global IT major Accenture has not ment positive, while narrowing the price-to-earnings multiple of 28x mark will fail to draw as assets including currencies.
Tier-II companies would continue to vices and insurance (BFSI), weakness seen a material change in demand. guidance would be a dampener. implies a 25% premium to the five- much money as previously esti- Morgan Stanley’s forecast
outpace tier-I firms. in manufacturing and retail could Accenture’s result is seen as an indi- Margin movement depends on year average and 45% premium to mated, according to Morgan would be a comedown from
The Street is more concerned hurt. Cost optimization deals are cator of the future performance of salary hikes, large deal ramp-ups and that of Nifty 50. That leaves little Stanley. initial predictions about the
about the discretionary IT demand expected to remain a client priority. tier-1 Indian IT firms. It also signalled changes in business mix. Wipro Ltd, room for disappointment. Fully accessible route bonds rush of money expected to flow
will fall short of an initial $25 into Indian markets on account
billion to $30 billion passive of the index inclusion. India
flow that was estimated to currently has a weight of 7% in

For RBL Bank, credit cost is more important than growth come in after their inclusion to the JPMorgan gauge, and that’s
the JPMorgan Government expected to rise to the maxi-
Bond Index-Emerging Mar- mum of 10% by March.
kets, analysts Nimish M. Prab- Foreign ownership of FAR
Manish Joshi card loans and microfinance that appeared to have bot- the quarter results are likely hune and Gek bonds increased
Risky lending
[email protected] loans. tomed out in Q1 at 1.8% again to be adversely affected as the Teng Khoo wrote Foreign from 3.5% to 6% of
RBL Bank’s slippage and credit cost remain elevated and
As such, the bank’s advan- unpredictable.
rose to 3% in Q2, as per Moti- management expects slippa- in a note. ownership of the outstanding

R
BL Bank stock lost 40% ces and deposits year-on-year lal Oswal’s calculations. The ges and credit cost to be They cited FAR bonds amount in 2024,
Slippage Credit cost (in %)
of its value in 2024, and growth was healthy in bank has guided for it to be higher QoQ. pressure on the increased from the Morgan Stan-
6
that had very little to do Q2FY25 at 15% and 20%, with 2.6-3% in FY25, with recov- It remains to be seen how Indian rupee, ris-
5.8 5.4 3.5% to 6% of the ley strategists
with the growth in advances a decent interest spread, i.e. ery expected from Q4 the credit card business ing US Treasury said.
and deposits. Instead, it was the gap between the yield on 4 onward. However, it would shapes up after Bajaj Finance yields, a hawkish outstanding The rupee fell
all about the asset quality advances and cost of deposits. 3.0
largely depend on the bank’s exited from a co-branded Federal Reserve amount in 2024 nearly 3% against
issues. Despite an interest spread of ability to contain incremental credit card partnership with stance and uncer- the dollar last
2
Its business update for the more than 6% in the last nine slippages that had increased the bank around a month ago. tainties around year, a seventh
December quarter (Q3FY25), quarters to Q2FY25, the 1.6 to 5.4% in Q2 from 3.9% in Q1. Valuations suggest many of US trade policy as reasons for straight year of declines, as out-
which shows year-on-year bank's return on equity (RoE) 0 The bank aims to achieve the negatives have been the shortfall. In addition, most flows from stocks and gains in
Q2FY23 Q2FY25
growth of 13% and 15% in has been below 10% in each Source: Company presentations, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
RoE of 14-15% by FY26. How- priced in as the stock trades at emerging-market govern- the dollar weighed on the cur-
advances and deposits, quarter. ever, much will depend on just 0.6x adjusted book-value ment-bond-index funds are rency. That’s despite the
SATISH KUMAR/MINT
respectively, has been met Its yield on advances was in how it manages to alleviate FY26 estimates of Motilal active managers “who are not Reserve Bank of India inter-
with muted reaction by the excess of 12%, which is high total loans in all quarters and personal loans and microfi- the stress in its retail loan Oswal. bound to add positions on the vening to blunt volatility in the
Street. owing to its focus on high- stood at 62% as of September nance, all fetching high inter- book. While the Q3 business Further trimming of earn- index rebalancing date,” they currency. While the rupee is
Investors are more worried risk retail loans. Retail loans 2024. Within retail, 50% of est rates with high risk. update in terms of advances ings estimates is the biggest added. one of the most steady across
about the slippages in credit have been more than 50% of the loans are credit cards, The problem is credit cost and deposits appears good, risk for RBL stock now. Their prediction comes as emerging markets on a one-
markets everywhere prepare year basis, hedging costs for
for a volatile 2025, marked by foreigners have shot up, eating
Mark to Market writers do not hold positions in the companies discussed here unless otherwise informed tariff disputes expected during into returns from local cur-
Donald Trump’s second stint as rency bonds.

Will FIIs return to Indian mkt in 2025? MINT MACRO TRACKER

Dipti Sharma Endurance Clean sweep India, which may lead to them Launched in October 2018, Mint’s macro tracker provides a monthly comprehensive report
[email protected] adding weight at some point, on the state of the economy, based on trends in 16 high-frequency indicators. For each
DII inflow in 2024 is higher India has seen more inflows indicator, the value in each month is assigned a colour-coding (red, amber and green) to
MUMBAI than FII figure for the fourth than other EMs in 2024. especially after the recent pull- denote where it lies relative to the five-year average (worse, in line, or better). In November
consecutive year. FII Equity Inflows (in $ billion)
back (time correction) in equity 2024, six of the 16 indicators were in green, four in amber and six in red, largely the same as

W
Now 1 month ago 2 months ago 4 months ago 6 months ago
hile overseas inves- (in $ billion) India EMs Ex-India
market valuations, he added. the previous month.
tors gave India the FII Equity DII Equity 40
FIIs have been participating
cold shoulder in 80 21 even when there has been a
2024, domestic institutions 63 20 broader FII sell-off, as seen in CONSUMER ECONOMY PRODUCER ECONOMY
demonstrated remarkable 60
0 16 October-November, said
resilience, maintaining strong 40
0 Mahesh Natarajan, head-eq- Passenger vehicle sales Tractor sales PMI composite Core* output
29 -20 (y-o-y change, %) (y-o-y change, %) (y-o-y change, %)
inflows. In October, when uity capital markets, Nomura. 20 30 62
-22 8
Indian markets saw the largest 20 -40 “Long-only FIIs have demon- 10 -4.4 20
-1.3 60 4.3
10 58.6 6
foreign institutional investor strated resilience in supporting 0 0
58
4
-60 56
(FII) sell-off of the year at 0 Indian initial public offerings -10 -10
54 2
0 -20
₹91,933.64 crore, domestic -5 -80 (IPOs) with around 46% share -20
-30 52 0
-20 2014 2024 -30 50 -2
institutional investors (DIIs) Note: EM is emerging market; : Other EMs
of the anchor book (2024)." -40
Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024
stepped in with the highest -40 consist of South Africa, Vietnam, While there would be bouts *8 core infrastructure industries
2010 2024
monthly net purchases of Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia, of profit booking and geo-
Source: Bloomberg, IIFL Research Philippines, South Korea and Brazil. Broadband subscriber base Domestic air passengers Banks’ non-food credit Rail freight traffic
₹1,05,253.33 crore. graphical reallocation, the (y-o-y change, %) (y-o-y change, %) (y-o-y change, %) (y-o-y change, %)
In fact, 2024 was the fourth SATISH KUMAR/MINT
broader FII trend of investing 16 50 11.9 18 12
consecutive year when DIIs Hence, FIIs will look to re-enter moters and private equity firms in India will continue, espe- 6.0 13.3 9
-5
40 16
12 6
poured more money into mar- Indian equities...” exploited the bull market log- cially with the long-only FIIs, 30 14
3
20 12
kets than FIIs, showed a 2 Janu- Robust SIP inflows and ging record-selling.” he added. He said FPIs were 8 0
10 10 -3
ary IIFL Securities report. strong retail participation in The market buzz suggests also ramping up India-dedi- 4 0 8 -6
Though FIIs returned as net broader markets are bolstering that while DII inflows are set to cated pools and devoting Dec 2023 Oct 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Aug 2024
buyers in December, it may be DII resilience, reflected in the remain steady, FII selling might increasing bandwidth to evalu-
too soon to assume the trend steady rise in demat accounts. be a short phase. ating India opportunities.
will continue throughout 2025. “Mutual funds contributed “We believe that the sub- In the long term, experts
“The significant FII selling in to approximately 80% of net dued FPI flows in 2024 is not a believe emerging markets like EXTERNAL SECTOR EASE OF LIVING
the last quarter of 2024 sug- flows by DIIs in trend but a more India are well-positioned to
Import cover Rupee vs dollar CPI inflation Core CPI inflation
gests caution, likely driven by a 2024. While the Robust SIP tactical shift away attract inflows and capitalize on (forex reserves in months) (m-o-m change, %) (y-o-y, %) (y-o-y, %)
mix of global macroeconomic ownership of inflows and from India proba- the competition between the 14 11 0.5
-0.4 7
5.5 6
3.7
factors and domestic con- Indian house- strong retail bly led by relative US and China. 13 6
0 5
cerns,” according to the holds in equities participation in (attractive) valua- “There’s a limit to how much 12 5
research team of Bajaj Broking has increased, it
broader markets tions in other mar- FIIs can sell; it's not as if they 11 -0.5 4
4
(Bajaj Financial Securities). is still lower com- kets like China will offload everything and exit 10 -1
The continuation of this pared to global are bolstering (above average val- India entirely,” said Santosh Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024
3
Dec 2023 Nov 2024
3
Dec 2023 Nov 2024
trend in 2025 will depend on peers," said Mirae DII resilience uations in India),” Kumar Singh, fund manager at
how the global economy per- Asset Mutual said Jay Kothari, Motilal Oswal Asset Manage- Labour-intensive sector exports Trade balance Real rural wages Labour force participation rate
forms, the actions of the Indian Fund's annual global head-inter- ment Co. He added while high (y-o-y change, %) (as a % of total trade) (y-o-y change, %) (in %)
16 2 42
government and the Reserve outlook report. national business, DSP Asset valuations were a concern in 12 -11.5
0
-37.1 1.5 0.3 40.8
-10 41.5
Bank of India (RBI), and corpo- Strong DII flows and buoy- Managers Pvt Ltd. 2024, it is essential to remem- 8 1
4 -20 0.5 41
rate earnings. If global interest ant market conditions fuelled He expects global flows to ber that India remains the fast- 0 0
-30 40.5
rates remain high or inflation- robust activity in the primary rise again as “India remains one est-growing economy. That -4 -0.5
-8 -40 40
ary pressures persist, FIIs markets, with equity raising as of the fastest growing large said, 2025 is unlikely to play out -12
-1
Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024 Dec 2023 Nov 2024
might continue to favour a share of gross domestic prod- economies with stable macro/ like 2024. “If the Fed goes for Dec 2023 Sep 2024
developed markets, it added. uct (GDP) reaching its highest politics/currency and availabil- significant interest rate cuts, we For each indicator, an average band (shown in grey) is constructed around the five-year average value. The size of the grey band rises with volatility. Values falling above this band
“However, we believe India’s level since the global financial ity of good businesses/compa- could see a strong influx of FII are in green, those falling below are red, and those within this band are coded amber (the red/green coding is reversed for inflation). While calculating the five-year average, data for
some indicators for April-May 2020 and 2021 have been removed to eliminate lockdown-induced skews in the trend. All data as of 6 January 2025.
growth story will regain crisis, according to a 2 January nies with strong balance sheets money into India." Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Bloomberg, Mint calculations
momentum, and the coming report by Nuvama Institutional and return on equity profile”. For an extended version, visit Data: Payal Bhattacharya; Graphics: Paras Jain
budget will focus on growth. Equities. “Furthermore, pro- FPIs remain underweight on livemint.com
LIVEMINT.COM CORPORATE TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI 05

India Inc on the alert as SC shifts e-comm cases to Karnataka HC

Krishna Yadav Court wrapped up the pending

HMPV cases rise in Asia [email protected]

NEW DELHI
case, the remaining petitions
from other high courts could be
transferred to the Delhi High

T
he Supreme Court has Court. However, the Supreme
transferred to the Karna- Court rejected this suggestion,
taka High Court (HC) all saying it could set a dangerous
petitions challenging the Com- precedent. It asked the attor-
petition Commission of India’s ney general to seek clear
Health ministry will increase testing for HMPV as precautionary measure (CCI’s) probe into alleged anti- instructions on whether the
competitive practices by CCI would agree to transfer the
e-commerce giants Amazon cases to the Karnataka High
Jessica Jani, Daanish Anand and Flipkart. On Monday, a Court, which the CCI subse-
& Devina Sengupta bench of justices Abhay S. Oka quently accepted.
and Ujjal Bhuyan directed the A single-judge bench of the Karnataka High Court will now hear The CCI accused Amazon
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI Karnataka High Court to hear the matter on 15 January. HT and Flipkart of using the sellers
the cases expeditiously. to challenge the investigation

I
ndia Inc is closely tracking the surge in The order came after both the CCI’s antitrust probe into matter on 15 January. by filing petitions across the
cases of Human Metapneumovirus the CCI and e-commerce sell- the two e-commerce giants, During the course of the country. The e-commerce sell-
(HMPV)—which causes respiratory ill- ers on the two platforms agreed which later expanded to hearings, disagreements arose ers, in turn, accused the CCI of
ness- in some Southeast Asian nations to transfer the cases as the Kar- include the sellers. between the CCI and e-com- “forum shopping”. Forum
following an outbreak in China, and has nataka High Court had already During a Supreme Court merce sellers regarding which shopping is when a party
asked its employees to travel to these coun- been hearing the matter. The hearing in December, the apex high court should handle the chooses a court or jurisdiction
tries only if necessary, and take precautions CCI had filed a plea seeking the court orally observed that the matter. Attorney general R. to hear their case where it
such as masking up to dodge the infection. consolidation of all petitions Karnataka HC should be the Venkataramani, representing expects to get the most favour-
Malaysia has reportedly seen a jump in challenging its investigation sole venue for hearing the CII, argued that the Delhi High able outcome. It’s also known
HMPV infections, whose symptoms into Amazon and Flipkart, and cases. However, it did not pass a Court should hear all the peti- as “bench hunting”. In its plea,
include fever, runny nose, and shortness of the transfer of these cases to a final order and stayed the pro- tions, while the sellers, repre- the CCI sought to transfer 27
breath. single high court. ceedings in the Karnataka HC sented by senior counsels writ petitions filed by Amazon,
“We are closely watching this space. CCI’s petitions were filed until it issued a final direction. Abhishek Manu Singhvi and Flipkart, and their vendors
Group companies where we see most travel against Amazon-owned Cloud- On Monday, it passed its final Mukul Rohatgi, suggested the from various high courts to the
to these destinations are asking employees tail India Pvt. Ltd and other order transferring the pleas to Karnataka High Court con- Delhi High Court to avoid mul-
to exercise all precautions, including the India has so far seen five HMPV cases, as per media reports. AFP entities. These companies the Karnataka HC. A single- tinue hearing the case. tiple proceedings.
use of masks, sanitisers, and even avoiding had filed writ petitions in vari- judge bench of the Karnataka Venkataramani proposed For an extended version of
travel, if possible. Employees are to check need to start monitoring international pas- ended 22 December. ous high courts, challenging High Court will now hear the that once the Karnataka High this story, go to livemint.com
latest company advisories before any sengers coming into the country. The Indian health ministry convened a
travel,” said Supratik Bhattacharyya, chief There are some firms that have stuck to joint monitoring group meeting with
talent officer for RPG Group. the safety protocols adopted during the experts from the World Health Organiza-
The information technology-to-tyre covid-19 pandemic. “Masks in case of com- tion (WHO), and medical agencies last Sat-
conglomerate is not the only business mon cold, regular washing of hands, and urday. It had then noted that while there
house keeping an eye out for the latest sanitizing of devices are encouraged. As was no unusual surge in respiratory ill-
NCLAT to hear Meta’s plea against CCI fine
reports on HMPV cases, some of which our employees regularly travel across the nesses, the government will increase test-
have been reported in India as well. globe, we encourage them to follow local ing for HMPV as a precautionary measure. Krishna Yadav dominant position in relation to five years. The CCI considers ucts for purposes other than
An energy company held an Media reports put the num- [email protected] the 2021 privacy policy update Meta a dominant player in inter- providing WhatsApp services
internal meeting of HR offi- CAUTION ADVISED ber of HMPV cases in India at NEW DELHI of its messaging app WhatsApp. net-based messaging through should not be a condition for
cials on Monday to discuss the five. Meta urged the NCLAT to WhatsApp and also in online users to access the messaging

A
strategies that they will need HMPV is a respi- THE govt may need GOVT and medical India’s government and the bench of the National hear the case urgently, not- display advertising. service in India. The order
to put in place should there be ratory illness, with
symptoms including
to start monitoring
international
community have
said that there is no
medical community have Company Law Appel- ing its implica- For purposes upholds user consent as a key
a surge in cases in India. “The fever, runny nose, passengers coming reason for alarm, but pointed out that there is no late Tribunal (NCLAT) tions and the CCI asked Meta to other than adver- principle in the functioning of
stock markets have taken a dip shortness of breath into the country advised caution reason for alarm, but have is set to hear on 16 January an stakes involved. pay ₹213 crore tising, What- social media giants, similar to
and the virus is one of the rea- advised caution. appeal by Meta Platforms The bench led by fine for abusing its sApp’s policy steps taken by other countries.
sons. We discussed what steps “Health experts have clari- against an order by the Com- chairperson Jus- dominant position should include a In December 2021, Germany
to be taken and when should a formal advi- and international health advisories," said fied that HMPV is not a new virus. It was petition Commission of India tice (Retd) Ashok
sory go out,” said a senior official of the Adarsh Mishra, chief human resources offi- first identified in 2021 and has been circu-
in relation to the detailed explana- temporarily banned Facebook
(CCI) that levied a penalty on Bhushan agreed tion of the user from processing the WhatsApp
company, declining to be identified. cer, Panasonic Life Solutions India. lating in the entire world since then," the US tech giant for allegedly and posted the 2021 policy update data shared with data of users. Ireland imposed a
The benchmark Sensex lost nearly 1,260 During covid years, Indian companies health minister J.P. Nadda said. There is no abusing its dominant position. matter for 16 of WhatsApp Meta group com- fine on WhatsApp in 2021 for a
points, or 1.6%, on Monday to settle at had mandated work from home, and it was reason to worry and the government is Meta Platforms, formerly January. panies or prod- previous privacy policy update
77,964.99 amid fears of a virus surge and only in 2024 that businesses began asking closely monitoring the situation, he said. Facebook, approached the On 18 Novem- ucts, specifying requiring users to accept these
weakness in bank stocks following a muted their employees to return to office. [email protected] NCLAT on Monday against the ber 2024, the CCI ordered the purpose, the CCI said. terms, before the EU rolled out
credit growth. HMPV caught global attention when With inputs from Priynka Sharma order of CCI, which asked the WhatsApp not to share user data The regulator also said that its General Data Protection
To be sure, aviation consultants have China reported a surge in the respiratory For an extended version of this story, go to company to pay a penalty of with other Meta firms or prod- sharing WhatsApp user data Regulation in 2018, as reported
emphasized that the government may illness with flu-like symptoms in the week livemint.com ₹213.14 crore for abusing its ucts for advertising purposes for with other Meta firms or prod- by Mint on 14 October.

FACTS WITHOUT
FILTER,
NEWS WITHOUT
BIAS
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06 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI CORPORATE LIVEMINT.COM

Wipro veteran Kidfluencers on a timeout as

quits for CEO role
at smaller firm rules force industry rethink
Jas Bardia
[email protected]
BENGALURU
Draft personal data rules turn brands hesitant to partner with underage influencers
A
senior Wipro Ltd exec-
utive overseeing a third Biden’s order blocked $14.9 bn
of the company’s busi- Pratishtha Bagai buyout of US Steel. AFP
ness has resigned to become [email protected] Minor matter
chief executive of a US-based
fintech firm, marking another
MUMBAI India has an estimated 75,509 influencers under the age of 18 with more than 10,000 followers each on Instagram.
Estimated reach Nippon, US

M
Name Followers (in million) (in '000s)
high-profile exit from India’s inors moonlighting as
fourth-largest IT services com-
pany.
influencers may have to
pause their business
Zara Zyanna - The Zara Zyanna Family 1.20 430 Steel sue
82.1
Srini Rajamani, who joined
Wipro in 2005 and rose to lead
its life sciences and consumer Srini Rajamani joined Wipro in
ambitions for a while as
their parents and com-
panies decipher the government’s pro-
Anantya Anand - @mymissanand

Tiana Elizabeth George - @tianaelizabethg

0.62

0.61 124.4
Biden order
businesses, is set to take the 2005.
helm at Opus Technologies, a
WIPRO/LINKEDIN posed rules for monitoring social media
use by children. Aayu and Pihu Show - @aayuandpihushow 0.51 119.1 blocking
Georgia-based fintech special- business and 13.2%—or $1.4 bil- The first draft of the rules to enforce
izing in card management sys- lion—from healthcare clients.
tems and payment gateways. While overall revenue declined
the Digital Personal Data Protection
(DPDP) Act, 2023 prescribes that chil-
Amreen Malhotra - @princessamreenmalhotra

Sayesha Singh - (@i_sayesha) 0.34

0.48 47.1
61.1
acquisition
Opus, which has a global work- 2.2% year-on-year, healthcare dren under 18 cannot use social media
force of about 800, operates posted 8.5% growth, offset by a without the explicit consent of their par- 23.8 Reuters
ILAN IYAL - @ilan_iyal 0.14
offices in Pune and Hyderabad, 4.2% dip in the consumer busi- ents or legal guardians. [email protected]
alongside locations in the UK, ness. “A data fiduciary shall adopt appro- Jayas Kumar - @jayaskumar_ 0.13 12.5

U
US and Canada. Rajamani’s is the latest priate technical and organization meas- S Steel and Nippon Steel
In a phone interview with departure since Wipro ures to ensure that verifiable consent of Vihaan - @vihaan_2311 0.13 12.1 have filed a lawsuit
Mint late Sunday, Rajamani appointed veteran Srinivas Pal- the parent is obtained before the pro- against US President
confirmed his decision to step lia as chief executive in April cessing of any personal data of a child Sia Aarna (twins) - @thetwintheory 0.04 5.7 Joe Biden’s order that blocked
down after nearly two decades last year. His exit follows that of and shall observe due diligence,” the Reach is the total number of unique users who have viewed the content. Source: Qoruz
the $14.9 billion buyout of the
with Wipro. His last day at the Laura Langdon, who stepped draft rules published on Friday state. American steelmaker by the
SARVESH KUMAR SHARMA/MINT
Bengaluru-based software down as Wipro’s chief market- The rules have turned companies Japanese company, they said
giant was Monday. ing officer in December and hesitant to partner with child influen- of kids to buy our products.” also require careful revision to include experts, however, view the proposed on Monday.
Rajamani was replaced by cers, or ‘kidfluencers’, until they have Other children-focused brands that provisions for obtaining and maintaining data protection rules for children as an The lawsuit asked the court
attributed his Rajamani’s Ranjita Ghosh. better clarity on the proposed changes, engage kidfluencers for marketing cam- parental consent,” said Aditi Verma Tha- additional formality to ensure the secu- to set aside the review process
decision to the departure marks Leadership despite these firms already having paigns, such as chocolate brand Kinder kur, Senior Partner, Ediplis Counsels, rity of minors and don’t see a need for of the Committee on Foreign
appeal of smaller, yet another exit churn at India’s obtained parental consent for existing Joy, toy retailer Hamleys and Firstcry, who specialises in intellectual property, drastic restrictions or changes. Investment in the US and
specialized firms. since Wipro fourth-largest IT contracts. India has an estimated 75,509 an online seller of baby products, did not commercial and data protection laws. “On the face of it, requiring parental Biden’s order, citing “violation
“Today, clients
appointed Pallia services company influencers under 18 with more than respond to Mint’s queries sent on Sun- “These provisions might cover paren- consent for children’s accounts on social of the Constitutional guarantee
of IT services is far from new. 10,000 followers each on Insta- media seems more of a formality of due process and statutory
companies want as the firm’s CEO Despite Pallia’s gram, as per data furnished by influ- CHILD CHECKS because one assumes these influen- procedural requirements, as
to be in the top in April last year preference for encer marketing software platform cers are doing what they do with their well as unlawful political influ-
five accounts and promoting inter- Qoruz. Overall, India has more than THE rules state that INDIA has over COS obtain parental SOME experts see parents’ knowledge, consent and ence”.
not the 25 largest nal candidates to 3 million influencer profiles on children under 18
cannot use social
3 million influencer consent to tie up the proposed rules
profiles on Instagram with kidfluencers but as an additional
even involvement,” said Sumanto The case was filed in US
accounts of a software service top roles, the company has seen Instagram with over 10,000 follow- media without their with over 10,000 contracts will need formality to ensure Chattopadhyay, an independent cre- Court of Appeals for the District
provider,” he said. “Customers significant turnover. Over the ers each. parents consent followers each to be detailed now security of minors ative consultant. Once the paper- of Columbia Circuit.
prefer to work with companies past two years, at least 30 senior “We do not have much clarity on work is revised to accommodate the The companies also filed a
that are razor-focused, and executives at the level of senior the legal compliances of marketing new requirements, the proposed second lawsuit against Cleve-
Opus excels in the fintech vice-president and above have through minor social media influencers,” day evening. Although companies tal responsibilities such as granting con- rules will not be a hurdle in brands engag- land-Cliffs, its chief executive
domain with deep expertise in exited, driven either by better said Anuj Chawla, director at Dreamland already obtain parental consent to col- sent, ratifying the child’s social media ing kidfluencers for their marketing, he Lourenco Goncalves, and USW
payments solutions.” opportunities or limited growth Publications, which publishes children’s laborate with child influencers, lawyers activities and partnerships, and adher- said, adding, however, that the dust needs union president David McCall
Wipro, which generated prospects under former chief books. “To avoid any complications, we say the contracts will now need to be ing to the necessary processes for pro- to settle on the DPDP rules before their “for their illegal and coordi-
$10.8 billion in revenue last executive Thierry Delaporte. are planning to work more with only more detailed. viding consent on the respective plat- implications become clearer. nated actions” aimed at pre-
year, derived about 18.8%—or For an extended version of mom influencers who create content “Brand partnership agreements with forms,” said Thakur, who specialises in For an extended version of the story, go venting the deal.
$2 billion—from its consumer this story, go to livemint.com around parenthood to target the mothers kid influencers, or their parents, would intellectual property law. Some brand to livemint.com Last week, Biden blocked
the proposed purchase on
national security concerns,
dealing a potentially fatal blow

Viral fear, growth blues stalk Street Disney’s Hulu + Live TV biz to to the contentious plan after a
year of review.
Nippon Steel paid a hefty

FROM PAGE 1 ative sign.

Foreign institutional inves-
merge with smaller rival Fubo premium to clinch the deal in
December 2023 in an auction,
topping rivals including Cleve-
that did little to help the local tors (FIIs) sold shares worth a land-Cliffs, ArcelorMittal and
currency in the face of strong provisional ₹2,575.06 crore. Reuters Nucor , in a bet on Biden’s
dollar bids in the local spot While domestic institutions [email protected] infrastructure spending bill.
and in the non-deliverable absorbed this selling with net Political and union resist-

W
forwards (NDF) market, Reu- purchases of a provisional alt Disney Co said on ance to the deal had amplified
ters reported. ₹5,749.65 crore, shorting of Monday it would in recent months. Biden and
Significantly, Indian mar- derivatives and retail selling, merge its Hulu + President-elect Donald Trump,
kets were the worst hit on data for both of which were Live TV business with smaller who is set to take office later
Monday among emerging not available until press time, rival FuboTV in a deal that also this month, had opposed the
markets. offset this. potentially clears the way for deal.
“The decline was much For instance, Nifty options’ the launch of its sports stream- The White House had urged
more in India than in other aggregate put-call ratio ing venture with Fox Corp. and for a scrutiny of the agreement,
markets, which makes the declined to 0.72 from 0.86 on Warner Bros Discovery. given US Steel’s core role in
outbreak of the virus a nega- India’s Nifty trades at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 22.4 Friday, according to analytics The combination creates the producing a material that is
tive on top of other negatives, times on a 12-month trailing basis. AP company IndiaCharts. This second-biggest internet pay- critical to national security. The
like tepid quarterly updates implies traders are selling just TV company in North America, Disney will hold a 70% majority stake in the venture. REUTERS Biden administration told Nip-
by banks signalling lower loan and co-head at Kotak Institu- Comparatively, Taiex trades 72 puts for every 100 calls behind YouTube TV, with pon Steel in a letter the deal
growth, falling rupee, and tional Equities, said about the at 21.5 times, Shanghai Com- being sold, a bearish indica- around $6 billion in revenue FuboTV had sued the big than 60% in 2024, as the com- would pose a national security
economic growth concerns,” impact of the new virus. posite trades at 15.6 times, and tor. A trader sells relatively and 6.2 million subscribers. media firms last February, say- pany’s revenue growth slowed risk by harming the American
said Andrew Holland, chief Agreed Jyoti Jaipuria, Kospi at 11.61 times. more calls when he thinks the Disney will hold a 70% ing Venu would violate US anti- and competition intensified steel industry, Reuters
executive officer of Avendus founder of port- B r o a d e r market would not rise and, majority stake in the venture, trust law by reducing competi- from bigger rivals. reported in September, citing
Capital Public Markets Alter- folio manager The India Vix benchmarks thus, allow him to pocket the which will be led by Fubo chief tion and driving up prices. A As part of Monday’s sources.
nate Strategies. Valentis Advisors. surged 15.58% to Nifty Midcap 150 price paid by call buyers. executive and co-founder district court judge had found announcement, Disney will The CFIUS, which was
Indeed, Japan’s Nikkei 225 “India is the most 15.65, while the and Nifty Small- With markets having David Gandler. The deal Fubo was likely to succeed in its also enter into a new carriage reviewing the deal, failed to
was the only other major expensive among rupee shed 5 cap 250 fell 2.5% slipped below key moving excludes Hulu’s mainstay vid- antitrust claims and issued the agreement with Fubo that will reach a consensus, setting the
index to fall, closing lower by EMs (emerging
paise to close at a a n d 2.88%, averages, analysts expect eo-streaming business. injunction temporarily barring allow Fubo to create a new stage for Biden to block the
1.47%. Taiwan’s Taiex ended markets), so any respectively, Indian indices to continue to As part of the agreement, Venu’s launch. sports service featuring Dis- merger.
up 2.79%, South Korea’s Kospi new fear adds to fresh low of 85.83 implying nerv- underperform other emerg- Fubo will also drop its lawsuit “All litigation between Fubo ney’s sports and broadcast net- US Steel had warned that a
settled 1.9% higher, and the risk especially to the dollar ousness among ing markets. against Venu, the sports and Disney has been settled,” works including ABC, ESPN, as failure to conclude a deal would
China’s Shanghai Composite if earnings don’t retail investors, Valentis Advisors’ Jaipuria streaming service planned by the firms said on Monday. well as ESPN+. put thousands of US union jobs
ended down just 0.14%. justify the valua- who flock to expects the markets to remain Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros Shares of Fubo, which had a Fubo and Hulu + Live TV will at risk and had also signalled it
“Valuations are expensive, tions,” Jaipuria said. small and midcaps. volatile amid the earnings Discovery. The firms will pay market value of about $480 continue to be available to con- would close some steel mills.
so any negative news tends to To be sure, India’s Nifty These indices fell below season kicking off this week, Fubo $220 million in cash, with million as of last close, surged sumers as separate offerings Despite the opposition, US
increase the downside risks to trades at a high price-to-earn- their recent lows of 31 Decem- and US president-elect Disney also committing to a nearly 141% to $3.46 in early after the deal is closed. Steel shareholders overwhelm-
Indian markets,” Sanjeev ings multiple of 22.4 times on ber, signalling a market mak- Donald Trump taking office $145 million term loan for Fubo trading. Disney was up margin- The deal includes a termina- ingly voted in April last year to
Prasad, managing director a 12-month trailing basis. ing lower lows, which is a neg- on 20 January. in 2026. ally. Fubo’s shares tanked more tion fee of $130 million. approve the acquisition.

Niti Aayog works on five-year plans to bring down carbon emissions

FROM PAGE 1 renewable energy; heavy two people quoted earlier said. that apart from identifying the an ongoing journey, and at any measures would also come
industries; steel and financial “Hopefully, it will be out this big emitting sectors, it is impor- given point in any sector, there with economic costs. The
mate finance group of the services; and vice-chairman of month,” the person said, with- tant to spot the mitigation alter- will be new challenges that will European Union’s Carbon Bor-
finance ministry. “But econom- Niti Aayog remained unan- out offering timelines. natives and their costs. continue to emerge which have der Adjustment Mechanism
ics does not work beyond the swered at press time. “Once the study is out and “In power, for to be addressed.” (CBAM), which levies on
headlines,” the person said, Prime Minister Narendra the sector-specific ministries example, renewa- GREEN According to imports based on carbon emit-
explaining why the think tank Modi had announced during start implementing it, there ble energy is going SHIFT him, the new chal- ted during production, will kick
has been tasked with the study. COP26 in 2021 that India might be some policy tweaks or great right now lenges “will always in from 2026.
The person described the would become net zero by new policies that may require because our share PM Narendra Modi be more costly “The other dimension that is
Niti Aayog effort as a “scoping 2070. For India, power genera- cabinet approval,” the person in electricity gener- announced during
COP26 in 2021 that
unless some break- also important is that EU’s
study” to set out various capaci- tion is the biggest emitter, con- said. ation of solar and India would become through happens”. CBAM. If we are quick to move
ties that need to be built up and tributing about 50% of the car- Experts say the sooner India wind is still less net zero by 2070 “In the case of car- to low carbon or zero carbon,
necessary investments for the bon dioxide emissions from the translates this plan into action, than 15%. The bon capture and our manufactured goods can
green transition, financing and energy sector. the higher the chances of moment it starts EXPERTS say timely storage or smaller enter the market with zero
plan implementation
government support. “This will “The study was scheduled to achieving its net zero target. For India, power generation is the biggest emitter, contributing crossing 20-25%, it increases chances of module reactors or taxes, and that is a great oppor-
be in blocks of five years each come out last month. It’s an “The sooner we do it, the about 50% of the carbon dioxide emissions. BLOOMBERG will become a chal- achieving India’s net storage solutions, it tunity for us in India to become
until 2070.” iterative process and Niti Aayog better it is for us in the long run lenge. One has to zero target will be more expen- a major manufacturer of goods
Queries sent to secretaries is still in the process of taking because what happens is that factored in at the earliest,” said it’s complex as many factors are introduce storage sive. It depends on services and we are still waiting
and spokespeople of the minis- feedback from various stake- many investments are very Ajay Shankar, a distinguished involved.” in a very big way. If where we are and at to succeed in a big way,” TERI’s
tries of highways; environ- holders like policy advocacy capital-intensive lumpy, and fellow at the Energy and Vaibhav Chaturvedi, senior not storage, nuclear power or what level we are talking Shankar said.
ment, forest and climate forums, industry players, and the cost of coming to net and Resources Institute (TERI). fellow at the Council on Energy, carbon capture must come in a about,” Chaturvedi said. For an extended version of
change; power; new and ministries,” the second of the the trajectory to net should be “Taking decisions is not easy, Environment and Water, said big way,” Chaturvedi said. “It’s Delaying carbon mitigation this story, go to livemint.com
LIVEMINT.COM CORPORATE TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI 07

Studios tap OTT

creators amid box Urban slump hits FMCG firms
office slowdown FMCG growth slows in Q3 as price hikes, weak winter, urban demand weigh on results, despite rural resilience.
Lata Jha
[email protected]
NEW DELHI Suneera Tandon and stable sentiment in urban vis-à- nario is challenging due to inflation-
[email protected] vis the preceding quarter. Amid this ary pressures, low wage growth, and

W
ith few films making NEW DELHI backdrop, domestic business posted higher housing rental costs,” the bro-
an impact at the box a sequential uptick in underlying vol- kerage said in a report late last week.

D
office, film produc- espite some pockets of ume growth with sustained market Nuvama expects FMCG sector’s
ers are hesitant about taking resilience in rural mar- share gains across key franchises,” third-quarter earnings before inter-
new projects to floor, prompt- kets and price hikes to Marico said in an earnings update. est, taxes, depreciation, and amorti-
ing a surge in unexpected part- combat inflation, India’s It, however, anticipates a year-on- zation (ebitda)—a measure of opera-
nerships between mainstream consumer goods compa- year contraction in its gross margin tional performance—to decline 1.6%
studios and independent digi- nies faced a challenging third quarter. due to rising input costs, nota- year-on-year. Several FMCG
tal content houses to diversify A delayed winter added to urban bly for vegetable oils and companies warned about a
their offerings. demand woes and inflationary pres- copra. “We expect mod- slowdown in urban con-
Yash Raj Films (YRF)
announced a deal with YRF‘s niche film Titli failed to
sures, and many consumer goods
companies are expected to report low
est operating profit
growth on a year-on- 1.6%
Ebitda fall likely for
sumption in September
quarter. Demand from
Posham Pa Pictures, known find traction with audiences. single-digit revenue growth and mar- year basis,” it said. Mar- rural markets contin-
for OTT titles, including Kaala gin contraction for the October-De- ico is set to announce its FMCG sector in Q3: ued to grow ahead of
Paani and Maamla Legal Hai, pany can only do a finite job,” cember period. “The demand slump third-quarter earnings Nuvama analysts urban regions in volume
and Sajid Nadiadwala’s film said a senior film producer, persisted in Q3FY25 despite festive later this month. terms, per industry data.
production house Nadiadwala declining to be named. concentration. Inflationary stress Experts say urban FMCG demand decline to persist for 2-3 more quarters... MINT Expectations for overall Consumer goods compa-
Grandson Entertainment and Even an established studio asks for price hikes that further affect packaged consumer goods sec- nies were compelled to hike pri-
Banijay Asia, which is a part of like YRF has tried its hand at demand. Expected respite from win- likely to be weak due to inflationary ico raised the price of flagship Para- tor aren’t as optimistic, with analysts ces during the December quarter to
Banijay Entertainment, have niche films like Titli and ter care offerings was also missing, stress, weak sales mix, lower operat- chute coconut oil brand at the end of predicting the slowdown in urban mitigate high input cost. Last month,
partnered to create web origi- Detective Byomkesh Bakshy, given the delayed and weak winter,” ing leverage and need for sustained the quarter, while volume growth for demand will continue for another Godrej Consumer Products said it has
nals and films, with an invest- but failed to find traction, said Nitin Gupta, research analyst at advertising,” he added. its edible oil brand Saffola held firm two to three quarters. raised prices of its soaps and reduced
ment of ₹100 crore. added the producer. It can, Emkay Global Financial Services, in a On Monday, Mumbai-based con- despite steep price hikes to counter In the December quarter, Nuvama grammage of packs during the quar-
Experts said such partner- however, bring distribution sector preview report on 3 January. sumer goods firm Marico said it may rising vegetable oil prices, it added. Institutional Equities analysts expect ter as palm oil prices surged. Soaps
ships are a win-win for both, as and monetization expertise to “ITC, Marico and Bikaji are only report a sequential rise in volumes for “During the quarter, the sector wit- fast-moving consumer goods compa- account for a third of its revenue.
the new players will help bring a company like Posham Pa, players to report double-digit year- December quarter helped by rural nessed steady demand trends on the nies to report low-to-mid single-digit For an extended version of the story
variety to estab- which wants to on-year revenue growth. Margins are demand despite price increases. Mar- back of improving rural consumption volume growth. “Urban demand sce- go to livemint.com
lished film pro- Such deals are make a mark in
duction houses’ good for business theatrical space.
libraries, while as production In a statement
the latter have a
better relation-
ship with main-
houses are cash
starved and new-
to announce the
collaboration,
YRF said, “This
Reliance takes on Tata, PepsiCo with ₹10 Raskik hydration drink
stream talent, age firms seek partnership is in
including actors. recognition line with YRF’s Suneera Tandon beverage brand Raskik, which like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Tata consumption packs of 750 ml. across categories,” said Ketan priced ₹10 for 160 ml pet bottle
In many cases, vision to build out [email protected] was founded in 2019 by Vikas Consumer Products and RasKik offers mango, apple, Mody, chief operating officer, in select markets, marking its
these digital con- a creative busi- NEW DELHI Chawla, the former managing Dabur India to recognize its mixed fruit, coconut water and Reliance Consumer Products. foray into the ready-to-drink
tent houses could also attract fin- ness model under CEO, director, south east Europe, at impact on the broader bevera- nimbu pani variants, and plans Analysts said RCPL’s entry glucose category.

R
anciers to back the projects, after Akshaye Widhani, who is stra- eliance Consumer Prod- Coca-Cola. The brand initially ges category. At to launch more into the hydration category India’s non-alcoholic bever-
Bollywood studios saw their tegically building out the stu- ucts Ltd (RCPL), the offered fruit-based drinks and present, the com- RCPL forays into "still" beverages. could be “potentially negative” ages market is set to expand at
films bomb at the box office, dio model within YRF.” wholly-owned con- coconut water. petitors sell simi- the hydration “The idea is to for Dabur India and Tata Con- a compound annual growth
repelling fresh investments. Experts say such deals make sumer products arm of Reli- RCPL has been acquiring lar packs for ₹20. segment with the create it as a mas- sumer Products. “We expect rate of 8.7% to reach ₹1.47 tril-
“Mainstream studios have business sense at a time when ance Retail Ventures, on Mon- both homegrown and overseas RCPL is position- launch of ₹10 ter drink brand in weak sales numbers for Nour- lion by 2030, according to a
realised that they need to have major production houses are day launched Raskik Gluco companies to build a sizeable ing Raskik as a hydration and jui- ishco from Tatas; Dabur fruit report by economic policy
Raskik Gluco
variety as far as their library short on cash, but must mount Energy, marking its entry into packaged consumer products master brand for ces, and every- juice business will anyway be think tank Icrier.
goes, and some have really not films with big stars demanding the hydration category. Priced business. In 2022, it acquired juices and func- Energy drink, eyes thing under still weak (in December quarter), " Reliance Consumer Prod-
seen their small scale films do high fees. It’s also beneficial at ₹10, it is set to intensify com- Campa Cola, a once-popular tional beverages, mass market beverages will be said Abneesh Roy of Nuvama ucts Ltd also sells staples, bis-
well. So, they need to step out for new-age companies having petition in mass-market bev- cola brand, from the New Del- the firm said. part of it. When Institutional Equities. cuits, beverages, confection-
and find partners for small- the funds but not standing to erage segment, dominated by hi-based Pure Drinks, reintro- RasKik Gluco we acquired the Tata Consumer sells hydrat- ery and chocolates. In home
world stories at a time when make noise in theatrical space. Tata Consumer Products, Pep- ducing it at ₹10 for a 200 ml Energy is likely to be rolled brand, it was still niche; from ing drinks under Tata Gluco+ and personal care, it sells soap,
everyone is looking at expan- For an extended version of siCo, Dabur and Coca-Cola. pack. The move disrupted the out pan-India and priced at ₹10 there we started a brand with a brand priced at ₹10. Last year, dish wash, toilet cleaner and
sion in some form. One com- the story go to livemint.com In 2023, RCPL had acquired market, forcing competitors per single serving, and home vision that it would be spread Dabur launched GlucoPlus-C floor cleaners.

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Source: Comscore MMX Multi-Platform, Total Unique Visitors, Business/Finance News Publishers, Livemint, October 2024, India
Amarjit Singh Batra
GM, SAMEA &
MD, Spotify India
Mint App www.livemint.com Mint Newspaper
08 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI GLOBAL LIVEMINT.COM

Intel’s chips are down. Its problems

are even worse than you’ve heard
AMD and others are making huge inroads into Intel’s bread-and-butter business of making the world’s most cutting-edge central processing units
Christopher Mims pany’s share of revenue from sell- Microsoft to make Windows on One of the big bets of Intel’s
[email protected] ing a wider array of chips for data ARM work. The company con- recently departed CEO Gelsinger,
centers only serves to illustrate the vinced other companies to port was Intel’s attempt to leapfrog

Y
ou may think you know core problem driving its reversal of their own software, and created TSMC in terms of chip technology.
how much Intel is strug- fortunes. tools that allow most existing pro- What it calls its “18A” tech could in
gling, but the reality is This situation looks likely to get grams to run on the new laptops, in theory allow its own chips, and
worse. worse, and quickly. Many of the emulation. Chips in these devices those it makes for outsiders, to
The once-mighty companies spending the most on are made by Qualcomm, and once again be the most cutting-
American innovation powerhouse building out new data centers are benchmarks show that they can edge, and the fastest, on the planet.
is losing market share in multiple switching to chips that have noth- finally compete with Apple ’s The company has said it could
areas that are critical to its profita- ing to do with Intel’s proprietary M-class mobile processors, which regain that title by 2026. Intel
bility. Its many competitors include architecture, known as x86, and are are also based on a combination of recently announced it had signed a
not just the AI juggernaut Nvidia instead using a combination of a ARM technology and a great deal of deal with Amazon to make custom
but smaller rivals and even previ- competing architecture from ARM custom chip design by Apple’s for- chips for the company, using its
ously stalwart allies like Microsoft. and their own custom chip designs. midable in-house team. 18A technology.
One flashing warning sign: In the A spokeswoman for Intel says the Another bastion of market share Even if Intel can once again lead
latest quarter reported by both company is focused on simplifying and profits for Intel, the PC gaming the industry with its technology,
companies, Intel’s perennial also- and strengthening its product port- market, is also showing early signs the best case scenario for Intel’s
ran, AMD, actually eclipsed Intel’s folio, and advancing its manufac- of erosion. Portable gaming sys- own products is that it regains dom-
revenue for chips that go into data turing and foundry capabilities tems like Valve’s Steam Deck and inance in a market that continues to
centers. This is a stunning reversal: while optimizing costs. Intel the Lenovo Legion Go, which can shrink—the x86 CPU one, says
In 2022, Intel’s data-center reve- interim Co-Chief Executive Miche- run even very O’Laughlin. The
nue was three times that of AMD. lle Johnston Holthaus recently said demanding games, use Intel reported a removal of Gelsinger,
AMD and others are making that 2025 will be a “year of stabiliza- processors from AMD. $16 billion loss in who was betting on an
huge inroads into Intel’s bread- tion” for the company. Intel is cur- Future devices that its most recent all-in strategy for Intel
and-butter busi- rently seeking a will be part of the com- quarter as it spent to regain dominance
ness of making permanent pany’s plan to license both in the market for
big to transform its own chips and in
the world’s most leader after its Intel, a once-mighty innovation powerhouse, is losing market share in areas critical to its profitability. REUTERS its custom OS to other
cutting-edge CEO Pat Gel- manufacturers may into a contract serving outside com-
and powerful general-purpose singer was pushed out last month. For a concrete example of Intel’s area where Intel has missed the mately take over the market which also use ARM-based manufacturer panies, suggests that
chips, known as CPUs, short for The decades that developers challenges, look at Amazon, the boat almost entirely. Then there’s the incumbent dominates—like ones. Intel’s board agrees
central processing units. spent writing software for Intel’s world’s biggest provider of cloud the 800-pound gorilla in AI, the mobile chips which ARM Inherent in Intel’s that the company can’t
Even worse, more and more of chips mean that Intel remains a computing. More than half of the Nvidia. Many of Nvidia’s current- started off with. woes is the way its vertically inte- continue to count on being the best
the chips that go into data centers giant, even as its market share has CPUs Amazon has installed in its generation AI systems have Intel In 1988, former Intel CEO Andy grated structure, long an asset, now in the world at everything.
are GPUs, short for graphics pro- shrunk, and that legacy will limit data centers over the past two years CPUs in them, but ARM-based Grove published a book called Only weighs on the company’s bottom All of these challenges and con-
cessing units, and Intel has minus- how quickly Intel’s revenues can were its own custom chips based on chips are increasingly taking cen- the Paranoid Survive, which high- line and ability to innovate. Unlike flicting priorities may push Intel to
cule market share of these high-end decline in the future. Analysts esti- ARM’s architecture, Dave Brown, ter stage in the company’s bleed- lighted the ways that companies other companies that either design someday split in two, severing its
chips. GPUs are used for training mate Intel’s 2024 revenue was Amazon vice president of compute ing-edge hardware. have to be vigilant about what’s chips or manufacture them, Intel product side from manufacturing.
and delivering AI. about $55 billion, just behind and networking services, said Intel’s repeated flubs in entering coming next, and be willing to dis- has stuck to a seemingly antiquated Intel Co-CEO David Zinsner
By focusing on the all-important Nvidia’s approximately $60 billion. recently. markets for new kinds of comput- rupt themselves and pursue new model of doing both. recently said that spinning off the
metric of performance per unit of Intel still has the lion’s share of the This displacement of Intel is ing and new applications for chips technologies. What he intended as Intel reported a $16 billion loss in company’s manufacturing side is an
energy pumped into their chips, market for desktop and notebook being repeated all across the big are a textbook example of a big, a warning to all companies has its most recent quarter as it spent “open question.”
AMD went from almost no market CPUs—around 76%, overall, providers and users of cloud com- profitable incumbent becoming a since become a prophecy foretell- big to transform into a contract It’s also possible, in the worst
share in servers to its current according to Mercury Research. puting services. Microsoft and Goo- victim of the innovator’s dilemma, ing Intel’s current difficulties. manufacturer—that is, a company case, that a fate even worse than
ascendant position, says AMD Chief AMD recently formed an alliance gle have also built their own cus- says Doug O’Laughlin, an industry “The book is literally about the that also manufactures chips for being dismembered could be in
Technology Officer Mark Paper- with Intel to collaborate on support tom, ARM-based CPUs for their analyst at SemiAnalysis, which importance of not missing strategic other companies, even competi- store for Intel.
master. As data centers become and development of the x86 ecosys- respective clouds. In every case, recently published a blistering inflections, and then Intel proceeds tors—and catch up to rival TSMC, Rene Haas, CEO of ARM,
ever more rapacious for energy, tem that both companies make companies are moving in this direc- report on Intel. The innovator’s to miss every single strategic inflec- which now produces the world’s recently observed that Intel has
this emphasis on efficiency has chips for. Papermaster says that his tion because of the kind of customi- dilemma holds that powerful com- tion since,” says O’Laughlin. most cutting-edge chips. long been an innovation power-
become a key advantage for AMD. own company continues to invest zation, speed and efficiency that panies that are unwilling to canni- Then there are laptops. After Analysts expect Intel to return to house, but that in chipmaking and
Notably, Intel still has about 75% in this ecosystem even as AMD also custom silicon allows. balize their biggest sources of reve- decades of trying to make it hap- profitability in 2025, but it won’t be design, there are countless compa-
of the market for CPUs that go into develops ARM-based chips for All those companies are also nue can be overtaken by upstarts pen, 2024 was finally the year of clear for years whether the com- nies that don’t innovate fast
data centers. The disconnect some applications, such as net- making their own custom, ARM- that build competing products that credible, ARM-based laptops run- pany’s big manufacturing bets will enough—and no longer exist.
between that figure and the com- working and embedded devices. based chips for AI workloads, an start out small, but which can ulti- ning Windows, thanks to efforts by ultimately pay off. ©2025 DOW JONES & CO. INC.

Israel’s Red Sea conundrum: Hit the Houthis or Iran U.S. to ease aid restrictions
Dov Lieber, Carrie Keller-Lynn
& Saleh Al-Batati
for Syria in limited show of
primary security challenge for
Israel in its 15-month-long
groups independently and
avoid a larger confrontation
confrontation with Iranian with Iran. Yuli Edelstein,
TEL AVIV, ISRAEL
support for new government
proxy groups that began after
Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks. In the
chairman of the Israeli parlia-
ment’s foreign and defense

O
ver the past year, past weeks, the Houthis have affairs committee, said in an
Israel’s military has kept a steady stream of near- interview that the country is Alexander Ward Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and
proved adept at taking daily missile attacks on Israel. moving toward a similar [email protected] German Foreign Minister
down threats to the country’s Israel’s government is under approach to the Houthis. WASHINGTON, US Annalena Baerbock were in
security. After the initial shock increasing pressure to respond. “Everyone understands that Damascus Friday. After meet-

T
of the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, The Houthi attacks frequently if we go after Iran it will weaken he Biden administration ing with Jawlani, Baerbock
Hamas’s top leadership has send millions of people run- the Houthis, but they won’t go plans to announce Mon- said women and Kurds must
been largely neutralized. ning to bomb shelters in the away because of it,” he said. day it is easing restric- be involved in the country’s
Iran’s other big ally in the early hours and disrupted the An Israeli official argued tions on humanitarian aid for transition, further warning
region, Hezbollah, was set return of international airlines that Israel needed to distin- Syria, a move to speed delivery that European funds shouldn’t
back severely in Lebanon. that ceased flying to Israel for guish between the immediate of basic supplies without lift- be used for “new Islamist
Now Israel is setting its much of the current war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says preventing Iran threat posed by the Houthi ing sanctions that block other structures.”
sights on the Houthi rebel But with no clear way to from weaponizing its nuclear program is his top priority. REUTERS attacks and the longer-term assistance to the new govern- The German diplomat also
group in Yemen, who repre- deter Houthi attacks in the strategic threat of Iran. ment in Damascus. signaled that it was too early
sent a lingering problem, reg- short term, some security spe- largely been subdued, while former senior Israeli diplomat. “There’s no connection The decision underscores for European nations to lift
ularly firing missiles at Israel— cialists argue that Israel should Iran’s air defenses were hob- “Israel is Israelizing the between the two,” the official the White House’s wariness sanctions on Syria, but said
and it is a problem with few ignore the Houthis for now bled by Israeli airstrikes in problem,” he said. said. “It’s a totally different about removing the broad With only weeks left for Biden, that “the past few weeks have
clear ways to handle. and instead focus on their October. Israel should take The reality is that plenty of decision.” sanctions on Syria until the decisions about sanctions are shown how much hope there
So far, Israel has targeted patron, Israel’s long-term stra- advantage of this window other governments are seek- Still, there are other consid- direction taken by its new likely to be left to Trump. AP is here in Syria that the future
what it says is energy and tegic threat: Iran. before Iran and its allies can ing to remove the Houthi lead- erations. Israeli Prime Minister leaders, led by a group the U.S. will be one of freedom.”
transportation infrastructure “Against terror from regain their strength, Guzan- ership from its strongholds Benjamin Netanyahu has said labels a terror organization, protect the rights of women The U.S. and its allies in
the Houthis use for military Yemen, our solution lies in sky said. overlooking the Red Sea ship- preventing Iran from weaponiz- becomes clearer. and the country’s many reli- Europe and the Middle East
purposes. The next step is to Tehran,” said Benny Gantz, a And if Iran retaliates, it ping lanes. Saudi Arabia would ing its nuclear program is his top The limited step approved gious and ethnic minorities. agree that Syria desperately
hit the group’s top leaders, former senior official in the would provide cover for Israel like to see them gone, and offi- priority, as the U.S. intelligence by the administration over the “Make no mistake, some of needs more aid, including
much as its security forces did current Israeli government, a to again strike Iran, and poten- cials from Yemen’s interna- community warned last month weekend authorizes the Trea- the rebel groups that took reconstruction funds to
with Hamas and Hezbollah. former defense minister and tially its nuclear sites, security tionally recognized govern- that the danger of Iran building sury Department to issue down Assad have their own rebuild the country’s shat-
“We will hunt down all of the now a leading opposition fig- analysts say. ment, which controls most of a nuclear weapon is rising. Offi- waivers to aid groups and grim record of terrorism and tered infrastructure.
Houthis’ leaders, and we will ure, in a press conference at Israel’s military, after its the country’s territory, have cials from his government said companies providing essential human right abuses,” Presi- The European Union is also
strike them just as we have done the end of December. most recent strikes in Yemen also recently called on a they are optimistic that Presi- services, such as water, elec- dent Biden said in December looking at steps it could take to
in other places,” said Israeli Gantz argued that while in late December, called the U.S.-led coalition that has also dent-elect Donald Trump tricity and other humanitarian after Syrian leader Bashar ease the flow of assistance,
Defense Minister Israel Katz in Israel would be fighting Iran’s Houthis an “autonomous ter- been targeting the rebel group would be a willing partner in supplies, officials said. al-Assad fled the country. currently hampered by sanc-
late December, following allies for years to come, the rorist group” that relies on Ira- to kill its leadership. Egypt too this effort, although analysts say Available initially for six “They are saying the right tions, into the country. But
Israel’s fourth round of airstrikes country now has an opportu- nian cooperation and funding has taken a significant eco- the incoming administration is months, the waiver would free things now, but as they take on HTS’s designation as a terror
against the Houthis since July. nity for a “strategic flip” against to carry out attacks. nomic blow thanks to sagging likely to exhaust other options aid suppliers from having to greater responsibility, we will group bars it from receiving
The Houthis, however, Iran by Israel’s trade through the Red Sea. before resorting to force. seek case- assess not reconstruction funds and
present a unique security chal- fighting it best option The Houthis only control a Meanwhile, Israel is trying by-case just their imposes tight controls on the
lenge for Israel because of how directly. for a long- small, but populous, part of to deepen its intelligence to be authoriza- words, but types of assistance that are
distant they are from Israel, a Corners term solu- Yemen in the country’s north- able to hit Houthi leaders, the tion but it t h e i r allowed into Syria.
lack of intelligence on the group of the country who argue that tion to the problem posed by west. The group’s leadership is Israeli official said. And while comes with conditions to actions.” During Syria’s brutal civil
and the fact that retaliatory air- Israel should hit Iran say that the Houthis might be to focus already concerned about Isra- continued Israeli attacks on ensure Syria doesn’t misuse The Jawlani-led govern- war, Assad’s government was
strikes seem to only inflate while it might not fully stop on building a U.S.-led regional eli threats and has taken pre- the Houthis might not prevent the supplies, the officials said. ment is seeking recognition able to seize large amounts of
domestic support for the group Houthi attacks, it will weaken coalition with Gulf countries cautions such as building Houthi missile strikes, they do The U.S. has already from world powers to legiti- humanitarian assistance,
while doing little to stem attacks. the group and advance Israel’s also threatened by the underground command com- signal to the rest of the region dropped a $10 million bounty mize his rule. The group pub- according to David Adesnik, a
A U.S.-led coalition also has long-term strategic goal of Houthis’ growing aggression, plexes, avoiding cellphones that attempts to hit Israel come on Abu Mohammed al-Jawl- licly cut ties with al Qaeda Syria expert at the Foundation
failed to clamp down on Houthi preventing Iran from weapon- including Saudi Arabia and the and changing its hide-outs and at a heavy price, said Avner ani, the Islamist leader of years ago and has sought to for Defense of Democracies, a
provocations against global izing its nuclear program. United Arab Emirates, some movements, according to a Golov, a former senior director Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, cast itself as more moderate. Washington foreign policy
maritime shipping. Yemen is In addition, Iran is uniquely analysts say. This could person familiar with the at Israel’s National Security the Sunni Islamist group that But with only weeks left of organization.
already one of the world’s poor- vulnerable at present, said require Israel to make difficult Houthis’ thinking. Council who is now a vice began as an offshoot of al the Biden administration, “This is the moment when
est countries, and nearly a dec- Yoel Guzansky, a former Gulf compromises with the Pales- In some ways the debate president at MIND Israel, an Qaeda and led the assault that decisions about sanctions and we need to consider major
ade of warfare with a Saudi Ara- expert for Israel’s National tinians. But acting alone with over what to do about the advisory group. toppled the Assad regime. whether to recognize the fixes to a very broken aid pro-
bian-led coalition has done little Security Council and now at the Houthis, who have snarled Houthis reprises earlier “It’s important Israel will The U.S. is withholding a rebel-led government likely gram that is been broken for a
to deter the group. the Tel Aviv-based Institute international trade by attack- debates on whether to hit Iran keep striking often to make decision on lifting crippling will be left to President-elect decade,” he said. “Hopefully
Indeed, since Israel secured for National Security Studies. ing ships in the Red Sea, Israel directly or tackle its proxies, sure people understand we sanctions imposed during Donald Trump. this government isn’t inter-
a cease-fire with Lebanon’s The proxy groups Iran risks turning an international groups such as Hamas and won’t live with it,” he said. Syria’s brutal 13-year civil war, Midlevel U.S. officials have ested in milking aid the way
Hezbollah in late November, seeded around the region to problem into its sole responsi- Hezbollah. Israel ultimately ©2025 DOW JONES & CO. INC. seeking assurances Damascus met in Damascus with HTS Assad did.”
the Houthis have become the deter attacks from Israel have bility, said Alon Pinkas, a elected to subdue those [email protected] won’t renege on promises to leaders, and French Foreign ©2025 DOW JONES & CO. INC.
LIVEMINT.COM NEWS WRAP TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI 09

NEWS
59.3
THE HSBC India Services Purchasing
₹1,578 cr
THE AMOUNT Capital Infra Trust plans to
63 mn
THE NUMBER of people in the US that
₹2,500
THE MONTHLY amount Congress party
₹31.60
THE COST of a home-cooked vegetarian
IN Managers’ Index in Dec 2024, up from 58.4 raise through an initial public offer starting have been impacted by a powerful winter has promised to women in Delhi if it wins thali in December, up 6% from ₹29.70 a
NUMBERS in Nov, marking a four-month high in a sign
of robust services sector growth.
7 January, the first IPO of an investment
trust in 2025.
storm that hit parts of central US on
Sunday.
the February elections, following a similar
promise by the Aam Aadmi Party.
year ago, driven by a rise in vegetable
prices, according to Crisil.

HOWINDIALIVES.COM

SGL32 issues NCDs SNOWFALL IN SRINAGAR PM Modi meets

to raise ₹2,450 cr Microsoft CEO

P P
ower transmission solution provider rime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday
Sterlite Grid 32 Ltd (SGL32) on Monday expressed happiness at Microsoft’s
announced securing ₹2,450 crore ambitious expansion and investment
through listed non-convertible debentures plans in India following his meeting with the
(NCDs) to refinance its Mumbai Urja Marg Ltd company’s chairman and chief executive
project. officer Satya Nadella.
The National Bank for Financing In a post on X, Prime Minister Modi said, “It
Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) and was indeed a delight to meet you, Satya
India Infrastructure Finance Co. Ltd (IIFCL) Nadella! Glad to know about Microsoft’s
have emerged as the successful bidders to the ambitious expansion and investment plans in
NCDs that have been listed on the BSE, India. It was also wonderful discussing various
according to a statement. aspects of tech, innovation and AI in our
This is the first listed NCD issuance of meeting”.
Sterlite Grid 32 after its joint venture with GIC Nadella is on a three-day visit to India. After
of Singapore. The NCDs are rated the meeting, Nadella thanked Modi for his
AA+ stable by Crisil Ratings. leadership and said, “Excited to build on our
The infrastructure business of Sterlite Power commitment to making India AI-first and work
Transmission Ltd was demerged into Sterlite together on our continued expansion in the
Grid 5 Ltd (SGL5) effective 8 October 2024. country to ensure every Indian benefits from
SGL5 has recently entered into a joint venture this AI platform shift”. PTI
with GIC of Singapore. PTI

A man clears snow from a car after fresh snowfall in Srinagar, amid a cold wave in North India. The minimum temperature in Srinagar settled at minus
0.5 degree Celsius on Monday. Cold weather conditions persisted in Delhi with parts of the capital receiving light rainfall. PTI

The sale is to be made to a separate indirect

Centre raises alarm on adverse Titan Co. had reported a 22% rise in third-quarter
revenue last year. MINT
wholly-owned arm, Akzo Nobel NV.

Akzo Nobel aims to reaction of beta blocker drugs Titan expects 24%
rise in Q3 revenue
sell R&D operations
T
itan Co. said on Monday it estimated a

P
aints and coatings maker Akzo Nobel 24% rise in third-quarter revenue,
India Ltd on Monday said its board has This is important as doctors widely prescribe the beta blocker medication buoyed by domestic festival demand for
approved exploring the sale of its powder jewellery.
coatings business and R&D operations to a Strong consumer traction during the festival
separate indirect wholly-owned arm, Akzo Priyanka Sharma ing condition due to potassium deficiency in the alert reviewed by Mint. season translated into high single-digit
Nobel NV, following a request by parent firm. [email protected] body. India’s beta-blocker market is valued at $11.06 percentage buyer growth in the jewellery
Akzo Nobel NV (ANNV), the parent entity of Queries sent to the health ministry remained billion and is seen at $15.08 billion by 2030. segment, said Titan, which gets about 87% of its

C
Akzo Nobel India Ltd, has requested the board oncerned over the widely used life- unanswered till press time. India is one of the largest producers of quality total revenue from the business.
of directors of the company to consider, saving beta blocker drugs causing Medically, the drugs metoprolol, propranolol medicines and has a robust pharmacovigilance The company had reported a 22% rise in
evaluate and start taking exploratory steps adverse drug reactions, the govern- and atenolol are used to treat hypertension in system to monitor the safety profile of marketed third-quarter revenue last year.
towards a potential sale of the company’s ment’s Indian Pharmacopoeia Com- adults, functional pharmaceutical Gold demand in India usually strengthens
powder coatings business and its international mission (IPC) has issued an alert heart disorders, products. towards the end of the year, which coincides
research centre (R&D operations) to a separate about the same. migraine prophy- ADRs may occur following a single “Healthcare pro- with the traditional wedding season and major
indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of ANNV, An adverse drug reaction (ADR) is a harmful, laxis, cardiac dose or prolonged administration of fessionals, patients festivals including Diwali and Dussehra, when
the company said in a regulatory filing. unintended result caused by taking medication. arrhythmias, man- or consumers are bullion buying is considered auspicious.
Besides, Akzo Nobel India has asked to ADRs may occur following a single dose or pro- agement of angina; a drug or may result from the advised to closely India had also slashed import duties on the
explore the potential acquisition of decorative longed administration of a drug or may result essential and renal combination of two or more drugs monitor the possi- bullion in July, making prices more appealing.
paints intellectual properties owned by ANNV. from the combination of two or more drugs. hypertension and bility of the above The quarterly report sent Titan’s shares 1.8%
“The board of directors of the company, at its This is important as doctors widely prescribe other heart disor- ADR associated higher in early trading. REUTERS
meeting held on 6 January 2025, took note of the beta blocker medication for abnormal heart ders. with the use of above suspected drug. If such a
the above said and authorised the company’s rhythms, prevent heart attack and migraine. “The analysis of adverse drug reactions from reaction is encountered, please report to the IPC,”
management to commence exploratory steps During an analysis of Adverse Drug Reactions Pharmacovigilance Programme of India (PvPI) it said. IPC monitors adverse drug reactions in
as may be required to evaluate and examine the
aforesaid potential transactions,” according to
(ADRs), the commission found that the use of
drugs such as metoprolol, propranolol, and aten-
database revealed that beta blocker drugs (Meto- India and helps the Central Drugs Standard Con-
prolol, Propranolol, and Atenolol) to cause trol Organization (CDSCO) take regulatory deci-
ArcelorMittal SA to
the filing. PTI olol can cause “Hypokalaemia”—a life-threaten- adverse drug reaction,” stated IPC’s drug safety sions for the safe use of medicines.
close long-steel biz

A
rcelorMittal South Africa Ltd will close
Institutional funds its business that makes long-steel
Canadian PM Justin Trudeau resigns products, potentially affecting about
in housing up 46% 3,500 jobs.
Persistent high logistics and energy costs,
Trudeau said it had become clear to together with insufficient policy interventions

I
ndia’s housing market attracted an him that he cannot “be the leader during by the government, left the business
institutional investment of $1.15 billion last the next elections due to internal battles.” unsustainable, the company said in a statement
year, it was 46% higher annually, as investors He planned to stay on as prime minister Monday. The wind-down will hit both its
looked to encash strong demand of residential until a new leader of the Liberal Party is Newcastle and Vereeniging Works, as well as
properties, according to real estate consultant chosen. rail and structures unit Amras. A scaled-back
Colliers India. “I don’t easily back down faced with a coke-making operation at Newcastle will
Institutional investment in the housing fight, especially a very important one for continue, reflecting reduced demand, it said.
segment stood at $788.9 million in 2023, said our party and the country. But I do this job The company said steel production will
the report. because the interests of Canadians and likely cease by the end of the month and it has
Real estate expert Colliers India reported the well being of democracy is something yet to determine the final number of job losses.
that the institutional investments in the Indian that I hold dear,” he said. The docking experiment is crucial for satellite A decision to shutter the business was
real estate market increased 22% to $6.5 billion He said Parliament, which had been servicing and interplanetary missions. REUTERS previously announced last February, but the
in 2024, from $5.4 billion. Trudeau had been facing rising discontent due to resume on 27 January, would be company delayed the move after consulting
Foreign investors invested $4.3 billion in
Indian real estate, accounting for 66% of the
over his leadership. REUTERS suspended until 24 March. The timing
will allow for a Liberal Party leadership
SpaDeX docking with the government. BLOOMBERG

C delayed by 2 days
total inflow. anadian Prime Minister Justin race.
In 2024, the industrial & warehousing Trudeau announced his All three main opposition parties have
segment got maximum investment of resignation on Monday in the face said they plan to topple the Liberal Party
Mercedes names
I
$2.5 billion last year, up from $877.6 million of rising discontent over his leadership, in a no-confidence vote when Parliament ndia postponed by a couple of days on Monday
during 2023.
The office segment saw a 23% decline to
and after the abrupt departure of his
finance minister signalled growing
resumes, so a spring election after the
Liberals pick a new leader was almost
a highly-anticipated space docking experiment
that would see it become the fourth country in new India CFO
$3,022.5 million in 2024, from turmoil within his government. assured. AP the world to achieve a feat essential for expanding

G
$2,338.9 million in the preceding year. PTI future deep space exploratory missions. erman luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz
“The docking process requires further on Monday said Emrah Ozer has been
validation through ground simulations based appointed as its chief financial officer
on an abort scenario identified today,” the (CFO) for its Indian operations as part of an
Brahmaputra dam will not impact water flows to India: China Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) said
in a statement, without giving further details.
organisational change in its finance and
controlling function effective since 1 January
The technology was originally set to be 2025.

C
hina on Monday reiterated its plan to build the world’s biggest dam tested during Tuesday morning in the local Ozer, currently associated as a member of
over the river Brahmaputra in Tibet near the Indian border, saying the time. the board of management and head of finance
planned project has gone through rigorous scientific verification and The experiment, crucial for satellite & controlling, Mercedes-Benz Otomotiv
will not have any negative impact on downstream countries—India and servicing, space station operations and Turkey, will be inducted into the board of
Bangladesh. interplanetary missions, positions India to play Mercedes-Benz India as executive director in
The project, estimated to cost around $137 billion, is located in the a significant role in the commercial and due course of time.
ecologically fragile Himalayan region along a tectonic plate boundary where exploratory frontiers of space. He succeeds Evren Cakabey who has taken
earthquakes occur frequently. The SpaDeX mission, launched on 30 over as the executive director & CFO,
“On the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo December from India’s main spaceport, used Mercedes-Benz G GmbH, Austria, effective 1
River, China has made its position clear. Let me reiterate that the decision to an Indian-made rocket to deploy satellites in January 2025, Mercedes-Benz India said.
build the project was made after rigorous scientific evaluation and the project orbit. Commenting on Ozer’s appointment,
will not have a negative impact on the ecological environment, geological Among various payloads and experiments were Santosh Iyer, Mercedes-Benz India chief, said
conditions and the rights and interests related to water resources of eight cowpea seeds sent into space to study plant the company will benefit from his rich
downstream countries,” foreign ministry’s new spokesman Guo Jiakun told a growth in microgravity conditions, which expertise in managing international finance,
media briefing. PTI A view of river Brahmaputra in Guwahati in the northeast of India AP germinated and sprouted leaves. REUTERS business modelling and investor relations. PTI
10 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI LONG STORY LIVEMINT.COM

‘COMPETITIVENESS IS
THE KEY TO OUR FUTURE’
Uday Kotak on protectionism, Donald Trump, private capex, Indian fintechs, scams and scandals
SAMEER JOSHI/MINT
Gopika Gopakumar & Satish John
MUMBAI

M
ost successful businessmen
don’t retire. They continue
to build and help other
companies. But few reflect
upon what it takes to build
a great nation. Uday Kotak belongs to that
minority.
Kotak, who is now 65, stepped down as
the managing director of Kotak Mahindra
Bank a year ago. In a career spanning
nearly four decades, Kotak managed to
build a financial conglomerate with total
assets worth ₹6.2 trillion, spanning across
banking, mutual funds, insurance, stock
broking, car finance, investment banking,
private equity (PE), and alternative assets.
Since retiring as a full-time banker,
Kotak is now enjoying his new found free-
We must
dom at the helm of his family office USK
(Uday Suresh Kotak) Capital. Seated on become truly
the 10th floor at Godrej BKC, Mumbai,
Kotak is busy managing his family money
by investing in businesses with long-term
productive and
potential and also mentoring the next
generation of business leaders.
“I am not busy at all. I am quite relaxed,”
efficient as
he quips as he sits down for a 90-minute-
long conversation with us, on a day which
players, and
is otherwise packed with meetings.
While he avoids all questions on bank-
ing, since he is currently serving as the
depending only
non-executive director on the bank’s
board, Kotak is all eager to share his views on currency
on privatisation, getting animal spirits
back into the economy, risk of over-regu-
lation and Starlink’s entry into the Indian
depreciation for
telecom sector.
In this exclusive interview with Mint,
Kotak reveals his dream of seeing India as
growth is not
the second most powerful nation in the
world during his lifetime.
sustainable.
You were one of those who could see UDAY KOTAK
the global financial crisis coming FORMER MD, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK
before it came. Do you have such
apprehensions now?
No, I do not have major apprehensions
at this stage, at least from a domestic point
of view. I think India’s financial stability
is positive. We have many parameters
which are in good shape. If at all, my con-
cern is more on the external account and
more global. And inevitably, geopolitics
is becoming an important part of that. As
also the significant domination which the
US is likely to have across the world as we
go forward. Specifically, if you look at the
global market cap, the US is two-thirds of
the global market cap. And the predomi-
nance of the US dollar… it’s leading to
most other currencies coming under
pressure. So, while domestically, India is
in a good shape, we have to be alert to
external factors.
The budget is not even a month away.
You’ve been talking about animal
spirits and how to bring them back. You also spoke about eliminating the increased investment in defence. Just As you have seen in the US, you have investors? mindset for creating the brands, is what
Any thoughts on what could spark a current account deficit. What do you last year, the head of an Indian EPC reduced the short-term interest rates but I think we have to go back to the funda- we need. And we are the fifth largest econ-
boom? think should be done? (engineering, procurement and con- the long-term interest rates, in fact, have mentals on valuation. I do believe that omy. In the next few years, we will be the
My sense is that the private investment We need to make sure that each sector struction) company was lamenting gone up. If you go back to August or Sep- small and mid-caps may have some froth. third largest. Time has come for us now to
cycle has been slow. And while we main- has the ability to compete in the world. that he built a shipyard, but the tember 2024, the long-term interest rates The large caps are still relatively better shed the concept of a developing nation.
tain macroeconomic stability, bulk of the Global consumer brands are used by con- orders are not coming. Your take? in the US were about 3.6% to 3.65%. It’s priced. But I would like to say that PE And aspire fast to be considered as a devel-
heavy lifting on the investment cycle has sumers beyond their countries of origin or One, India needs to beef up its defence. now nearly 4.6%. Even as short-term rates ratios need some moderation, and a lot of oped nation.
been done by the government and gov- people from that country in the rest of the And needs to be much bolder in its spend. have gone down, long-term yields have new money is coming in from areas and What plans do you have for USK?
ernment entities. We have to introspect world. I would love to see one or more of Because I genuinely believe long-term gone up. So, when people take investment people who are first-time investors. Post Currently, we are a small team and we
and ask what it takes for the private sector Indian consumer brands having such a protection of a country is the safety of decisions, they look at the bond yields covid, they have not seen a downturn. are building it steadily. We are not in the
to put money to work. I mean, the Indian global presence. I think there are many power. I am a big believer in that. The sec- rather than the overnight yields. And, We are seeing some consolidation in business of trading day-to-day. We are
situation looks as good as it is from a mac- Indian companies which have the ability ond is from a business point of view. The therefore, what we have to be careful the cement industry. Do you see other looking at good businesses operationally
roeconomic point of view. What is it that to become global consumer brands. shipyard should be competitive enough about is that at a time when the US dollar industries also consolidating? where we can invest money. Not with a
private enterprises would like to see Something like Titan in jewellery has an to get orders outside India as well. So, if is strengthening so much, and the US dol- I think consolidation up to a point is private equity mindset, but a long-term
before putting money to work and taking opportunity. There could be many other the shipyard was competitive, it could lar 10-year bond is giving 4.6%, we cannot needed. And there is a very famous ‘rule of entrepreneurial and ownership mindset.
the risks required as we go forward. examples. There are Indian two-wheelers. export. It brings me back to my earlier afford very low interest rates in India. Oth- three’ concept which has been around for- We are looking at how we can be part-
What do you think is holding the pri- Do you think Indian fintechs can point. Competitiveness and not protec- erwise, you run the risk of more dollar ever. What we have to be careful about is ners or significant owners of businesses,
vate sector back? do it? tionism is the core to our future. Why flights out of India. I think India is very that the rule of three does not become the which have long term potential. It’s open
The first has to be capacity utilization. In the UPI space, they could. I think we can’t a shipyard be used by any other comfortable on its reserves. But if you look rule of 1.5. or two. There should genuinely ended and our capital is permanent capi-
So, if capacity utilizations go up beyond a have made a mark there. But so far, the use country in the world? at the current foreign exchange reserves be at least three serious competitors. tal. It doesn’t need to be repaid back to its
level, we will start seeing of UPI outside India is You made a lot of suggestions last net of the forward positions of the sover- In the telecom sector, investors at the end of five or
more entrepreneurs still limited. In fact, the year on tax. What kind of measures eign, we are probably below $600 billion. there are technology seven years, as it happens with
being ready to put in Increasing question you’ve got to can simplify taxation? Reserves are a very important signal to the breakthroughs happening. private equity.
capital for creating new ask is the reverse. In First of all, on direct taxation, I compli- world that we have the ability to be in a How do you see it as an You have many ideas; you
capacity. The second tax rates for India, 95% of the (UPI) ment the government for the actions it good place when a crisis happens. industrialist? have many suggestions. How
has to be consumption corporates at volume is with global took in July. They have increased long- On privatization, are you happy with I think a lot depends on are you putting this to use in
demand. We have seen brands. Walmart and term capital gains tax and simplified it. The the way it is? It doesn’t seem to be Trump and what he demands of terms of mentoring the next
some challenges on the this stage would Google. rules have been made clear. Having said progressing… Elon Musk. I am sure India will Liked this story? generation?
consumption side, espe- On the scams and that, on the taxation of interest rates, Earlier privatizations were really dis- have its own counter point of Share it by Lots of friends of mine send
cially in recent times. be a very wrong scandals t h a t including individual incomes, we should investments with the exception of Mar- view. In my view, India has the scanning the their kids to me and I love chat-
And there could be a signal. occurred, such as lower the layer and tax rates. My personal uti Suzuki. And Maruti Suzuki is a great strength to take its own decision QR code. ting with them. There is one
variety of reasons for IL&FS and DHFL, do view is that the maximum marginal tax rate example of how the government of India and not be muscled in. thing I tell a lot of them. Some of
that. There is a view that you think the after- on income to individuals should be more handled disinvestment and made it a You had also once said we need to those friends had businesses which they
a stronger rupee, and low depreciation of math is still affecting the government like 33% or 35% from the current 39%. If phenomenal success. Now, privatization urgently focus on acquisition have sold. So, they are sitting on money.
the rupee, over the last 12 to 18 months on and regulators, making them overly you recollect, it used to be 42% which is, in my mind, first a philosophy, which finance… The worst thing you can do is say I am run-
a relative basis compared to other coun- cautious and risk-averse? became 39%. Corporate tax rate is 25%. In has to be deeply bought in by the social Most acquisitions in India are funded by ning a family office, but spending time pri-
tries, may have been one of the reasons for I am a believer that a zero accident pol- totality, a fourth for corporates and a third and political system of India. And in the offshore funding. It either comes through marily allocating money to mutual funds
some slowdown in the growth momen- icy is a high risk to growth. And it’s across marginal rate for individuals. It will be a history of privatization, the biggest suc- global banks, as you saw in the case of or some specific shares and trading. That’s
tum. If that is so, some depreciation of the sectors. If you and I cross a road, we have good outcome as I see it. But the govern- cess was Margaret Thatcher. And I hap- cement. Or it comes through AIFs (alter- not what creates value. Get into investing
rupee is helpful. a risk of an accident. Are we going to say ment will look at other ways of narrowing pen to know the man who ran it for Mar- native investment funds). But it also into operating businesses.
However, my view is that in the long we don’t cross a road? I’m not talking the gap by raising corporate tax. The garet Thatcher. It was a gentleman reflects on our banks —why is it that our Do you have time to read books or
term, a country does not win by only depre- about any particular sector. And India is threshold for zero taxation should be called Jerry Grimstone. He and I banks are not perceived to be strong watch movies? Any book that stayed
ciating its currency. Its competitiveness big enough to absorb some of these increased. We should read the big message co-chaired the Indo-UK financial part- enough to be able to do it? It’s a two way with you in 2024?
has to come from its true strength. And true shocks. If you want to minimize accidents, from Donald Trump. He will really turbo- nership. And he was given complete question. That would be Ruchir Sharma’s book
strength is something which I have said in the way to do it is to have good traffic charge the US economy and at a time when freedom to go ahead and do whatever it What will it take for India to get to 9% on capitalism. Ruchir is a good friend. He
my tweet at the end of the year—improve- lights, and have a good monitoring sys- we want private investment to pick up. I takes to make privatization succeed and annual growth, $30 trillion GDP by had come home and shared his thoughts
ment of productivity like ROTI (return on tem. And most importantly, if an accident would say that increasing tax rates for cor- fully insulated from the political side. 2047? with a few of us. I think we are at a stage
time invested). So, we must become truly happens, the response time to correct is porates at this stage would be a very wrong Privatization is very much linked to the We must create that ecosystem, where where capitalism and socialism are at seri-
productive and efficient as players, and the key. We cannot have an accident lin- signal to bring animal spirits back. socio-political reality of India. both mindset and capital should be availa- ous crossroads. And even within that, we
depending only on currency depreciation ger for long. Do you also see interest rate reduc- Do you see a froth building up in the ble. The cross section of creativity with are seeing different forms of the same.
for growth is not sustainable. You have also spoken earlier about tion sort of helping private capex? markets? What are you telling your world class technology, and a global [email protected]
LIVEMINT.COM MINT MONEY TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI 11

Hidden costs of buying property: POWER

POINT
Taxes and fees you just can’t avoid SA N D EEP J HUN J HUN WA L A
& SA N JAY KUMA R
We welcome your views and comments at
[email protected]

The true cost of homeownership goes beyond the price tag, with taxes, cess and legal fees adding to the expense
SIMPLIFYING TAXES:
Shipra Singh amount in property cost and quote
KEY CHALLENGES
[email protected] The price of ownership the price to a buyer,” said Purna
FOR BUDGET 2025
NEW DELHI Chandra Reddy Gundala, managing
Property purchases in India carry overheads like stamp duty, registration and admin fees,
director, Canny Life Spaces, a devel-
adding 12% to the total cost.

T
hink you’ve nailed your oper in Hyderabad. “For the same

A
property budget? Think Stamp duty Registration charges reason, GST is not levied on resale s the budget season approaches, anticipation grows over
you’ve accounted for every Men: 7%; Women: 5%; Joint ownership: 6% up to ₹15,000* properties as occupancy certificate how the government will balance growth ambitions and
Gurgaon
expense for buying your Men: 6%; Women: 4%; (stamp duty and transfer duty) 1% of sale deed
need not be obtained,” he said. fiscal responsibility. A key focus could be reconfiguration
dream home? Think again Delhi GST on under-construction prop- of the tax regime introduced in 2020 to simplify tax compliance
—overhead costs like taxes and gov- 6% (stampy duty and metro cess) 1% for property below ₹30 lakh; erties can easily push the total over- and reduce reliance on exemptions and deductions.
Mumbai
ernment fees could add a hefty 7-12% ₹30,000 above ₹30 lakh head costs by 9-10%, of the property A press note issued last August showed that 72% of taxpayers
to your final bill. Property value Stamp duty rate 1% of market value value, or even more. Mumbai resi- who filed returns by 31 July chose the new tax regime, up from
Bengaluru
The biggest cost is that of stamp Below ₹20 lakh 2% 10% cess and 2% surcharge (in urban areas) dent Rachit Chhokera paid 11% in 67% in FY23. While it’s heartening to see a majority of taxpayers
duty, a tax levied by the state govern- ₹21 lakh to ₹45 lakh 3% are applied to the stamp duty government fees and taxes during a moving to the new regime, there’s been only a marginal increase
ments on the sale of property. Cur- Above ₹45 lakh 5% purchase. “Duties and taxes are sig- of 5 percentage points in FY24 from a year ago.
rently, the highest stamp duty is lev- Hyderabad
7% (stamp duty and transfer duty) 0.50% nificant enough to be thought upon While the simplified filing process and lower tax rates are
ied by the Meghalaya government at Men: 7%; Women: 6% (stamp duty and metro cess) 1% registration fee while making a purchase as it impacts appealing, 28% taxpayers still preferred the old regime due to
9.9% of the property value, followed Pune the overall decision making,” he said. deductions and exemptions (Public Provident Fund, National
4.9% (stamp duty) 1% registration fee (waived for women)
by Kerala and Madhya Pradesh at 8% Ahmedabad What the loan covers Pension System, house rent allowance, leave travel allowance,
and 7.5%, respectively. *₹15,000 applies to properties over ₹25 lakh; ₹500-12,500 for those below Source: Knight Frank India These costs should be considered and housing loan interest allowance.
Among major cities, Hyderabad Other expenses by the buyers while budgeting for a This contrast highlights the differing benefits of the two
has the highest stamp duty of 7%. In Mandatory property purchase as these have to be regimes. The new tax regime appeals to those with straightfor-
Gurgaon too, male buyers have to pay paid out of the pocket. A home loan ward finances, while the old tax regime suits individuals leverag-
5% GST on under-construction property
7% in stamp duty, whereas the rate is doesn’t fund any costs associated with ing deductions and exemptions for optimised tax payouts.
5% for female owners and 6% in joint Voluntary but necessary home ownership.“Banks typically The new regime faces challenges hindering widespread adop-
ownership. Mumbai and male buyers Legal fee for property verification 2,000-plus finance 75-90% of the property’s tion, primarily the lack of incentive for savings, which encour-
in Delhi pay 6%. Female buyers in Notary fee for paperwork 10,000-plus value. But, it doesn’t cover the man- ages long-term financial planning through deductions for invest-
Delhi enjoy a lower stamp duty of 4%. Typically 1% of property value datory stamp duty and registration ments in PPF, NPS, and equity-linked savings schemes. In con-
Brokerage
The registration fee, another man- charges as well as the costs associated trast, the new regime does not provide similar encouragement,
datory government charge, varies Example with property title verification, legal making it less appealing.
across states and ranges from ₹15,000 Mr A buys an under-construction apartment in Delhi valued at ₹2 crore advice and documentation,” said Enhancements to consider
to 3% of the property value. In addi- Stamp duty 12 lakh 12% additional government fees Abhishikta Munjal, chief risk officer, With the upcoming Union Budget, the focus shifts to how the
tion to fixed charges of stamp duty Total and taxes apply IIFL Home Finance. Proper planning government might overhaul the new tax regime to attract more
and registration fees, buyers often GST 10 lakh Brokerage, legal, and notary
for these expenses ensures that buy- taxpayers, and could consider several enhancements.
24 lakh charges do not apply when
incur various miscellaneous costs. Registration fee 2 lakh buying directly from the builder. ers are not caught off-guard during Firstly, increasing the standard deduction would provide tax-
While not mandatory, these expenses the purchase process, he added. payers with a higher flat deduction,
arise from administrative processes RACHIT CHHOKERA, Mumbai KARAN SEHGAL, Gurugram However, the saving grace is that The focus is on offsetting the benefits of exemptions
and paperwork typically required Under-construction apartment Condo in Gurugram when an owner sells a property, they how the Centre available in the old tax regime. For
during the property purchase. in Mumbai (2024) Stamp duty: 6% can add all such expenses borne at the instance, resetting the current stan-
Mint breaks down the overhead Stamp duty and metro cess: time of purchase to the acquisition overhauls the dard deduction to ₹2 lakh, considering
Registration fee: 15,000
costs involved in property purchase 5% + 1% cost to calculate capital gains. new tax regime inflation, could significantly boost dis-
Brokerage: 1%
and lists out taxes for five metros— GST: 5% Lawyer's fee (property verification
“Both, government fees for stamp to attract more posable income. A slab-based standard
Delhi, Gurgaon, Bangalore, Mumbai, Registration: 30,000 and drafting of sale deed): ₹65,000
duty and registration and other char- taxpayers deduction could also be formulated,
Pune, Ahmedabad and Hyderabad. ges of brokerage, legal fee, society offering higher standard deductions
Notary charges: 10,000
Overhead costs transfer fees etc, can be added to cost for high-income earners.
A buyer can expect to pay under "Duties and taxes are significant factors "I paid ₹80,000 in legal and notary fees. of acquisition,” said Gautam Nayak, Secondly, another potential measure is revising the tax slabs
five heads–stamp duty, registration to consider, as they impact overall Though these are optional, all buyers have partner, CNK & Associates LLP. such as raising the threshold for 5% tax rate to ₹5 lakh or extend-
fee, brokerage, lawyer’s fee to vet the decision-making during a purchase." to bear the cost" Doing so can help in reducing the ing the 10% slab to ₹15 lakh, thereby easing the burden on middle-
property papers, and notary fee. As GRAPHIC: PARAS JAIN/MINT capital gains liability during property income earners. Additionally, adjusting slab rates such as reduc-
part of government fees, in some cit- sale. For example, you buy an apart- ing the 20% rate to 15% or lowering the 30% rate for higher-in-
ies, apart from stamp duty, additional ment for ₹1 crore and pay ₹10 lakh in come groups could incentivise taxpayers to switch regimes.
charges like transfer duty or metro in urban and rural areas, respectively, tion, apart from ₹15,000 registration yers for property verification to avoid overhead costs. After five years, you These changes would address the concerns of those favouring
cess is also levied. For instance, Mum- in addition to this. fee, an additional ₹10,000 had to be paying heavily twice. sell the apartment for ₹1.5 crore. To the old tax regime, striking a balance between simplicity and
bai charges 1% of the property value as Next up are the voluntary but nec- paid to a person for registration at the These costs, however, are saved for calculate capital gains, take the cost of financial benefits, ultimately making the new tax regime more
metro cess. Bangalore has a 10% cess. essary costs in the form of brokerage, office of the registrar. It is not a gov- under-construction property as it is acquisition as ₹1.1 crore after adding competitive and taxpayer friendly. Taxpayers who earn from
“This cess is levied on stamp duty which is 1% of property value, a lawyer ernment fee, but a personal service directly bought from a developer. the extra costs, which will save you businesses or profession should be allowed greater flexibility in
rate. Say, for a ₹50 lakh property, the for property verification, and a docu- that all homebuyers have to bear.” But, under-construction properties ₹1.25 lakh in capital gains tax. choosing their tax regime. Currently, once a taxpayer with busi-
buyer pays 5% or ₹2.5 lakh in stamp ment writer preparing the sale deed. Legal fees can vary depending on entail 5% GST (goods and services ness income opts into the new tax regime, they are locked into it
duty and ₹25,000 cess on the stamp For instance, Gurgaon-based Karan the complexity of the transaction and tax). “GST is paid at the time of getting and can only switch back to the old regime once in their lifetime.
duty,” Vivek Rathi, national director, Sehgal, while purchasing a condo homebuyers should expect to spend the occupancy certificate. In a newly Liked this More flexibility
research, Knight Frank India, said. paid ₹80,000 for administrative pro- at least ₹5,000 just on property verifi- built apartment or independent story? Please After switching back, they lose the option to re-enter the new
“The cess is applicable on under-con- cess. “I paid ₹50,000 in legal fees to cation. Buyers who take a loan have to house, the developer should have share it by regime again in the future. This restriction should be lifted,
struction ready-to-move properties.” vet documents and another ₹15,000 pay legal fee, which also includes val- paid GST on all unsold units at the scanning the allowing taxpayers with business income to opt into and out of
Bangalore levies a 2% and 3% sur- to prepare the sale deed and arrange uation charges, to the bank as well, so time of obtaining occupancy certifi- QR code. the new tax regime with more flexibility.
charge on properties above ₹35 lakh stamp duty. At the time of registra- they should not hire expensive law- cate, hence they will include the This adaptability could ensure that business owners can
choose a tax regime based on changes in their income patterns,
deductions, and overall tax planning strategies from year to year.
Additionally, to draw taxpayers to the new tax regime, the

Wartime risk takers shield $830 mn daily trade amid threats compliance burden could be reduced for individual and Hindu
Undivided Family taxpayers with income above Rs 50 lakh by
relaxing asset disclosure requirements by raising reporting
thresholds, allowing category-wise aggregation, and exempting
Bloomberg pocked by the highest number ness of selling war cover is upon vital marine trade routes coverage for dangerous voy- Kpler estimated was $150 bil- low-value personal assets. This could ease compliance while
[email protected] of risky areas in two decades. reaching new heights as the would be far greater than we ages at premiums that can earn lion worth of cargo moving ensuring transparency and efficiency.
The Red Sea and Black Sea are post-pandemic have seen,” said them millions of dollars if the through the Red Sea and Black The new tax regime represents a pivotal step toward simplify-

I
nside faceless office build- vital passageways for oil, coal rebound in trade Shipping Chris Goddard, massive, 900-ft vessels make it Sea in the first half of last year. ing tax compliance and fostering a transparent fiscal framework.
ings scattered around Lon- and grains, and some of those sails into a gaunt- insurance is founder and chief to destinations safely. “Our That’s equivalent to more than However, there’s still a need for strategic recalibration to address
don, a niche corner of the essentials would be stuck in let of flaring geo- offered in London executive officer own growth and attainment of $830 million a day. taxpayer concerns.
insurance market is keeping port without insurance against political tensions since 1680s, yet of Vessel Protect. market share since launch has Navium Marine, Ai Marine In the upcoming Union budget, the central government has a
hundreds of billions of dollars acts of war. A bigger-than-ever and persistent His firm is one of exceeded our expectations,” Risk, Clearwater UW and K2 unique opportunity to refine the regime and offer better incen-
the business of
in commodity trade moving chunk of protection is being piracy. Officials at least five busi- Goddard said of the firm he Rubicon Specialty started up tives to align with the financial aspirations of taxpayers while pro-
through some of the world’s written by specialist providers, estimate premi- selling war cover nesses managing started four years ago. At one in recent years. As well as pro- moting equitable and efficient taxation. With bold reforms, this
most dangerous waters. who pay out if ships or cargoes ums may gener- is now peaking general agents, or point, Vessel Protect insured viding protection against acts budget could mark a turning point, fostering greater acceptance
As conflicts rage in the Mid- are damaged by drones, mis- ate as much as $1 MGAs, that have almost a third of grain ships of war, those entities also offer and shaping a fairer and more efficient income-tax landscape for
dle East and Ukraine, shipping sile or drifting mines. Shipping billion a year. opened city offi- sailing from Ukraine, he said. insurance for other parts of the individuals in India.
goods is becoming increas- insurance is offered in London “Without the specialist war ces to rival stalwarts in Lloyd’s Such cover helped maintain voyage, whether it’s the value Sandeep Jhunjhunwala is partner and Sanjay Kumar is director,
ingly perilous, with the oceans since the 1680s, yet the busi- risk insurance market, impact of London market. They offer the flow of what analytics firm of a ship, the cargo an more. Nangia Andersen LLP

Returns on investments NRI tax mismatch: What’s your next step?

Building a portfolio is a complex exercise, and it has to be maintained too. A person’s portfolio holds different types of assets based ISTOCKPHOTO

on her financial goals, and each asset class gives different types of returns, which is why a portfolio must have an ideal mix of Harshal Bhuta or (b) if they stay for more than
financial products. One must also keep in mind the volatility risk of the asset class, liquidity, lock-in rules and taxation. Here's a look 60 days in the current fiscal
at how four commonly used asset types—equity, cash, gold and fixed income—have done in different periods. In FY24, I, an NRI, earned year coupled with a stay of 365
capital gains on mutual days or more in the preceding
Returns (in %) funds (switch in and switch four fiscal years. The fiscal year

10re.7turn9th%at
out), which I didn’t report in India is 1 April to 31 March.
Equity (Sensex) Cash (liquid fund) in my return. I received an Since your stay during
Gold Fixed income (fixed deposit) email from the income tax 2024-25 in India is not likely to
The department about the mis- be 182 days or more, neither
s given
21.21 Sensex ha match between my return has your stay during the past
ear
over a 3-y and the AIS/TIS. What are four fiscal years amounted to
d my options now? 365 days or more, you will
perio —Name withheld on request continue to remain a non-resi-
15.84
13.74 dent for 2024-25. Accord-
12.92 It is a common misconcep- ingly, there will be no change
10.20 10.79 11.01 tion that switching MFs does ASK MINT I have lived in the US for 18 in your residential status
9.91
8.50 not result in capital gains as m N R I TA X AT I O N years and run my own busi- because of your unplanned
7.10 6.80 6.26 the money is not directly cred- ness. I visited India for four extended stay in India during
5.10 6.00 6.19
5.16 ited to the bank account. Since months in 2024, and will 2024-25.
you have earned capital gains resident individuals and not return for a month in 2025. Harshal Bhuta is partner at
but have not offered them to NRIs. If you file your updated I usually visit once a year. P.R. Bhuta & Co., Chartered
tax, your only option now is to return before 31 March 2026, Does this affect my tax sta- Accountants.
file an updated tax return. you will be liable to pay an tus in India?
The Central Board of Direct additional tax of 25% (+ sur- —Name withheld on request Do you have a personal
1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS 10 YEARS Taxes (CBDT) vide circular no. charge and cess) along with finance query? Send in your
2/2024, on 31 December 2024, applicable interest. You may An individual is considered queries at
Data as on 02 January 2025. Equity is the benchmark Sensex return (price); cash refers to the average return for liquid funds category as defined
by Valueresearchonline; gold refers to domestic gold prices available on Valueresearchonline; and fixed income is historic SBI fixed deposit extended the due date from 31 also explore benefits under the a resident of India (a) if they [email protected]
rates. All returns are annualized. and get them answered by
December to 15 January 2025. respective double tax avoid- stay in India for 182 days or
SATISH KUMAR/MINT Source: BSE, SBI, Value Research industry experts.
However, this applies only to ance agreement (DTAA). more in the current fiscal year
12 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI VIEWS LIVEMINT.COM

OUR VIEW MY VIEW | EYE ON AI

ISTOCKPHOTO

Ten big GenAI developments we

saw within the span of a month
Its evolution didn’t even pause for a year-end break as the AI wave began turning into a tsunami

camera, turning your phone into an debug intricate code-bases and even
AI-powered ‘eye.’ The simultaneous optimize algorithms for better perform-
announcements of similar features ance. O3 can also re-factor existing code
might be accidental, but it underscores for clarity and scalability. This has pro-
the intensity of AI competition and the found implications for software devel-
speed of this technology’s evolution. opment, empowering junior developers
Google Whisk—The ‘point-and-shoot’ and freeing up senior programmers to
revolution reached image editing: Goo- focus on higher-level design.
gle’s Whisk, a preliminary lab product, O3 is redefining the limits of artificial
NILESH JASANI showcases the future of image editing. It general intelligence (AGI): It made waves
is a Singapore-based innovation investor allows users to edit images using other by exceeding human performance on
for LC GenInnov Fund. images as prompts, essentially remixing the abstraction and reasoning corpus
visuals innovatively. While AI tools (ARC) benchmark for AGI. While not
won’t replace expert tools, they’re akin true AGI, it demonstrates AI’s remarka-

Tweaked for flexibility,

to the arrival of point-and-shoot cam- ble progress in tackling complex tasks
eras in the early 2000s, democratizing once considered exclusive to humans.

T
he latter half of December wit- features previously exclusive to experts. As models like O3 push boundaries, we
nessed a flurry of groundbreaking AI rapidly changes how we interact with can expect them to tackle increasingly
announcements despite the holi- digital content, posing risks for all complex challenges that may appear

NPS awaits tax clarity day season, highlighting a Generative

AI industry that cannot afford a pause,
given the rapid developments and high
costs for those who fall behind.
established players and processes.
Quantum leaps—Progress is exciting
but patience is key: December saw a
flurry of quantum-related announce-
unsurmountable now. While AGI may
remain a distant goal, AI models keep
knocking down the challenges we pose.
Robotics LLMs—The dawn of truly
Google raised the bar with Gemini 2.0: ments, from Google’s demonstration of intelligent robots: A team of researchers
Google’s launch of Gemini 2.0 is a full- ‘time crystals’ to IBM’s roadmap for the unveiled language models for robots.
This funded pension scheme now offers access to low-cost fund management with its option fledged base model upgrade from the release of its largest quantum computer These allow robots to respond to com-
1.5 series. Such upgrades, even in half- in 2025. We also witnessed quantum plex instructions in natural language.
of staggered withdrawals of what was once a lump-sum. Good. Let’s keep its taxation benign step increments, represent substantial energy teleportation. While these Imagine telling a robot to “tidy up the
architectural advancements. It’s crucial advancements are significant, their living room” and it knows exactly what
to acknowledge Google’s dominant practical applications are far away. needs to be done. Companies like
position in the AI landscape. Its models Patience will be key, as their true impact Nvidia and OpenAI, with their ongoing

T
he latest tweaks to India’s National ment—about 0.06% of the assets managed, a consistently rank at the top of most may unfold over decades, not months. research, are likely to incorporate LLMs
Pension System (NPS) improve an sharp contrast with the 2% that mutual funds Western performance benchmarks. Collaborative AI—OpenAI’s Projects into robotics development.
Gemini 2.0 Flash—Your phone’s 2025 and Google’s Canvas have reimagined Usage costs—A seismic shift in the AI
already excellent retirement saving typically charge. The scheme allowed savers to AI brain: It was more than a base model teamwork: OpenAI and Google both landscape: In 2024, we saw AI usage
scheme. The government could exit with the exit-funds falling in two baskets. change with Gemini 2.0 Flash, a special- launched platforms for collaborative AI costs tank by over 90%. An expert
consider two additional improve- One comprised 40% of the corpus, which must ized model built for speed and effi- projects. OpenAI’s Projects allows users showed that today’s cost of processing
ments. One, remove the age limits be used to buy an annuity designed to deliver a ciency. Imagine this: your phone inte- to create shared workspaces. Google’s tens of thousands of photos is already
respectively for entering the scheme and for steady stream of income for the remainder of grates AI into everything you do. Flash Canvas enables AI-powered collabora- below $2. A Chinese developer unveiled
makes this possible. Need to identify a tive brainstorming. They signal a shift a further game-changer: DeepSeek-V3
staying invested. Two, remove ambiguity on one’s life. The remaining 60% had to be with- landmark in a photo quickly? Done. towards AI-augmented teamwork. rivals the performance of leading LLMs,
the taxability of the funds that remain in the drawn as a lump-sum, anytime before reaching Want real-time translation during a Imagine brainstorming sessions with AI but its training cost just $6 million. As a
NPS after the mandatory lump-sum to buy an the age of 75. Recently, an NPS norm was conversation with someone speaking a generating ideas or writing projects and result, it can offer token or usage pricing
annuity is taken out. The government intro- tweaked to permit staggered withdrawals of the different language? No problem. Flash’s providing real-time feedback. This can at less than 10% of an already cheap rate.
duced the NPS as a proactive measure to spare 60% portion, while the funds that remain in the speed and multimodal capabilities revolutionize software development, This dramatic cost reduction is a power-
mean AI can understand any text, image design and research. ful catalyst for mass adoption of GenAI.
itself a pension burden that it would find hard to account continue to earn a return. or audio clip, turning our phones into O3: The code whisperer—AI trans- The AI tsunami: The AI wave has
bear once the population has aged, reducing This grants the retiree a welcome degree of knowledgeable assistants. formed programming again: Built on gained an intensity rarely seen. It’s a
the proportion of those who work and pay taxes. flexibility in how her savings are invested, with Instant copiability—The AI arms race ‘chain of thought’ reasoning, O3 can multifront revolution, with progress in
Paying the pensions of past employees from the a chance to avail of the lowest fund manage- heated up: A day after Gemini Flash, break down complex coding into logical every direction. On what it can achieve,
taxes paid by current earners was clearly not ment charges on the table. This fits in with the OpenAI showcased almost identical steps, enabling it to generate entire the message is clear: buckle up, because
capabilities. Its model can process a live code blocks from simple prompts, the AI wave is turning into a tsunami.
sustainable. Under the NPS, pension is sought demographic and sociological changes under-
to be paid out of a saving corpus accumulated way in society. Parents do not need to provide
over the employee’s work life, with both the for their children in today’s world, nor are chil-
employer and employee contributing to it. The dren often available to render care during old
British government has such a system of funded age, making an income stream with which to
pensions even for its armed forces personnel, pay for such services more than desirable. How
with an added guarantee of a top-up from the should systematic withdrawals be taxed? Popu- www.livemint.com New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune* Wednesday, January 7, 2015 Vol.9 No.6 `4.00 in Delhi-NCR/`5.00 outside Delhi-NCR 32 PAGES

exchequer, should the pay-out fail to keep pace list pressure made the government extend to Q&A:Vinton Cerf on the
Internet of Things >10
COMPANIES: December quarter report cards
likely to be lacklustre >8

with inflation. NPS the same tax treatment that had been twitter.com/
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POLICY: Trai recommends non-telecom activity
be excluded from AGR >10
AUTO: Car makers raise prices by up to 6% >32

India’s scheme is open to employees in the bestowed on the Employees’ Provident Fund: SENSEX 26,987.46 æ 854.86

GLOBAL SELL-OFF
NIFTY 8,127.35 æ 251.05 DOLLAR `63.58 Æ `0.16

THE WORLD CUP SQUAD

EURO `75.6 Æ `0.02 GOLD `27,180 Æ `440

Air India seeks QUICK EDIT

OIL $52.41 æ $0.70

Virtue is more to
Sensex govt help after Crude

private sector and to self-employed individuals Exempt at the time of contribution (subject to a
India’s cricket selection committee chose the following 15-member squad
to defend the World Cup title. The tournament will be played in Australia
and New Zealand from 14 February to 29 March. IOC warns on questions
See Page 32
fuel supplies
tumbles on be feared than vice,
M.S. DHONI (CAPTAIN), 33
wicketkeeper, right-hand batsman B Y TA RU N S H U K L A
T he bloodbath in the
equities market came
in the wake of fears that the
[email protected] steep fall in crude oil prices
···························· is a sign of an incipient glo-

as well. All accounts are kept by a central cap), exempt during accumulation and exempt
NEW DELHI
RAVICHANDRAN bal recession. This narra-
ASHWIN, 28
A ir India Ltd has sought the tive is different from the

oil, Greece
VIRAT KOHLI, 26 all-rounder, right-hand
right-hand batsman help of the aviation ministry one that fuelled the global
batsman, right-arm
off-spin bowler to ensure continuity in fuel sup- equities rally at the end of
plies after Indian Oil Corp. 2014. The dominant view
RAVINDRA JADEJA, 26 (IOC), the country’s biggest oil then was that cheap oil

because its excesses are

ROHIT SHARMA, 27 all-rounder, left-hand marketing firm, threatened to would act as a stimulus to
right-hand batsman batsman, left-arm stop them unless the airline pays economic activity in at
Index falls more than have declined due to global rea- slow bowler its dues, according to two of the least the major oil import-

record-keeping agency on a uniform platform. at the time of withdrawal (EEE). Since the lump-
850 points as falling oil sons, it is ideally a buying oppor-
tunity,” added Naren.
airline’s executives.
The predicament of the state-
ers.
Which view should the
MOHAMMED
prices and political On Tuesday, the fall in oil con- SHIKHAR
DHAWAN, 29
SHAMI, 24 owned airline comes in the wake investor go with in the
uncertainty in Greece tinued, taking prices to a five left-hand batsman
right-arm fast-medium
bowler
of an intervention by the avia- coming months?
and half year low. Brent crude tion ministry to bail out SpiceJet The answer depends on
lead to risk aversion fell to below $52 a barrel as fears Ltd by asking fuel companies to another question: how
of a supply glut worsened after AJINKYA UMESH YADAV, 27 continue supplies to it (they had much of the decline in
BY A MI S HAH & both Iraq and Russia reported RAHANE, 26 right-arm fast-medium threatened to stop them unless crude oil prices comes

not subject to the regulation

R AV I N D R A S O N AVA N E record oil supplies in the past the private airline, now control- from weak global demand

This brings down costs. An employee’s retire- sum was tax-exempt, its withdrawal in stages
right-hand batsman bowler
···························· week. South Arabia also cut led by Kalanithi Maran of Sun and how much from
MUMBAI prices for European buyers, group, paid its dues) and increased supplies from

I ndia’s benchmark equity

index, the Sensex, tumbled
more than 850 points on
Tuesday, posting its biggest fall
in percentage terms in sixteen
causing a further dip, Reuters
reported.
Talk of a possible exit of
Greece from the European
Union, if the country fails to stick
SURESH RAINA, 28
left-hand batsman
ISHANT SHARMA, 26
right-arm fast-medium
bowler
banks to loan money against
guarantees by the promoters.
Air India’s request to the min-
istry also reflects the state of the
Indian aviation industry where
countries such as Iraq?
Both matter. Economists at
the International Monetary
Fund wrote in a blog post
last month that “unex-
months, as tumbling oil prices to the terms as part of a bailout AMBATI RAYUDU, 29 STUART BINNY, 30 all but two airlines—Indigo and pected lower demand” can
all-rounder, right-hand
right-hand batsman

ment saving account remains the same, with should make no difference to its tax treatment.
and political uncertainty in package in 2012, also unnerved batsman, right-arm GoAir—are reporting losses. account for only 20-35% of
Greece led to risk aversion, investors. (part-time wicketkeeper) medium-pace bowler The cut in fuel prices, down by the price decline between

of conscience.
pushing world markets lower. General elections in Greece around 25% since June, should June and December. The
The correction in prices may are scheduled for 25 January and improve their operating rest of the decline can be
give investors an opportunity to reports suggest that the left-wing BHUVANESHWAR AKSHAR PATEL, 20 finances, but most are loaded explained by higher crude
KUMAR, 24 all-rounder, left-hand
buy into stocks at more reasona- Syriza party, which had opposed right-arm batsman, slow left-arm with debt and other dues. Jet oil production.
ble valuations, said experts, the terms of the bailout package, medium-fast bowler bowler fuel prices have dropped by 31% Investors should watch
many of whom believe that the may be gaining support. this debate as it unfolds.
Indian equity markets are set for “People are getting worried TURN TO PAGE 2®
MOHSIN SHAIKH/MINT

a permanent retirement account number In fact, the government could go further. It

a multi-year bull run if eco- about Greece, the sharp decline
nomic growth revives in 2015-16 in crude oil prices and the even-
as it is widely expected to. tual impact on the large crude
In terms of points, Tuesday’s
fall in the Sensex is the steepest
producing countries, which is
leading to a lot of risk aversion,” Affordable
housing may
since 6 July 2009, and the sev- Sam Mahtani, director of emerg-
enth-biggest fall for the index ing markets at F&C Investments,
ever. In percentage terms it is the which manages $3.5 billion of
biggest drop since 3 September emerging market assets, said in a
gather steam

(PRAN), even if jobs are switched. Savers can could give tax breaks to the portion that’s kept
2013. phone interview from London.

this year
The 30-share S&P BSE Sensex Investors should not panic
shed 3.07%, or 854.86 points, to and should remain focused on
close at 26,987.46 points, while good quality assets, added
the 50-share CNX Nifty of the Mahtani.

A DA M SMI TH
National Stock Exchange (NSE) “I think it is a very good B Y M ADHURIMA N ANDY
declined 3%, or 251.05 points, opportunity for those who want [email protected]
closing at 8,127.35 points. In to accumulate Indian stocks ····························
intra-day trades, the Sensex fell from a medium-term perspec- BENGALURU

invest in four different asset classes: equity, gov- invested in the NPS for allocation to alternate
as much as 3.25%, or 905.26
points, to 26,937.06, while Nifty
fell as much as 3.19%, or 267.05
tive, as India is a direct benefici-
ary from a drop in crude prices,
and the outlook for India stocks
A ffordable housing in India
may get a leg-up this year
with Shapoorji Pallonji Real
points, to 8,111.35. remain optimistic. We are over- Estate lining up two projects at
NSE’s India VIX, a measure of weight India at this point of the start of a big push for low-
market volatility, spiked 23.1%, time,” said Mahtani. cost developments across the
the most since 16 August 2013, According to provisional fig- country.
hinting at choppy trading ahead. ures available on the stock The real estate firm, part of
The fall in the Indian markets exchange, FIIs were net sellers of the Shapoorji Pallonji Group,

ernment bonds, corporate bonds and alternate investments, since an important chunk of these
came in response to a global Indian equities on Tuesday. FIIs plans to build homes priced at
sell-off. sold a net of `1,570.76 crore, `20 lakh and above, a top com-
On Monday, in US trades, oil while domestic institutional pany executive said. The com-
plunged another 5%, triggering investors were net buyers at pany expects to build such
selling across equity markets. `1,189.65 crore. FIIs pumped in homes across 18-20 million sq. ft
The US Dow Jones Industrial a net of $16.03 billion in Indian in six-seven years through a sep-
Average fell 1.9%, while the equities in 2014, driving the arate platform.
broader S&P 500 lost 1.8%. benchmark Sensex 29.42% “This is a separate business
“Risk appetite has come down higher in the course of the year. line for the group and we will

investments. Savers can also choose their fund go into funding startups in sectors of strategic
as FIIs (foreign institutional In a note on 26 December, create a separate team to focus
investors) with exposure to oil economists at HDFC Bank Ltd on this. We are buying clean
and oil-dependent economies pointed out that the recent sharp land for our projects as it gives
are selling heavily across asset and possibly permanent reversal us more control and will selec-
classes,” said S. Naren, chief in oil prices could impinge on an tively do some projects on the
investment officer at ICICI Pru- important source of dollar joint development agreement
dential Asset Management Co. m o d e l ,” s a i d Ve n k at e s h
Ltd, pointing to the continuing TURN TO PAGE 2® Gopalkrishnan, president (busi-
slide in crude oil prices. ness development) and chief

manager for each asset class. The NPS has one technological capability essential to the cause of
“We have historically seen ALSO SEE investment officer of Shapoorji
that whenever Indian markets Pallonji Real Estate.
>Mark To Market: Investors wake up to the
ill-effects of falling crude oil prices >P18 The first two projects will be in
Mint is also available for R8 with >Oil extends drop below $50 as US
Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only stockpiles seen swelling glut >P24 TURN TO PAGE 2®

of the world’s lowest charges for fund manage- India’s strategic autonomy.

MY VIEW | MUSING MACRO

Rupee depreciation is inevitable but its volatility is not

and the exchange rate is a major headache needs to be corrected. How much exports been earned on non-dollar assets. Con- currency but your headache.” That is no
AJIT RANADE for policymakers. It is governed by the have suffered due to a high rate is debatable. versely, when RBI sells aggressively at a longer true. President Trump would want
‘impossible trinity’ theorem, which says that Did it remain high because of intervention lower rate than when it bought the dollars, the dollar to weaken, a wishful thought
you cannot have independent control of by RBI? Former chief economic advisor Arv- it makes a net profit, which can be passed on against the mighty global tide.
both the exchange rate and interest rate and ind Subramanian and Josh Felman find that as annual dividend to the government. Esti- For India, there are other options, like
still maintain an open economy. In other for past three years, the real effective mates of the cost of excess holdings and reducing dollar invoicing, convincing some

T
he dollar rupee exchange rate is one of words, a fixed exchange rate and free capital exchange rate (REER) has been kept much profit from excessive selling are not readily trading partners to accept rupee payments
the most important economic varia- flows are incompatible with an independent higher than the average for available. An average hold- (like done already for Iran and Russia), or
bles that affects all aspects of the econ- monetary policy, thus compromising the the previous two decades. ing of $700 billion with a diversifying into non-dollar reserves. This is
omy. Whether it is food prices that have an nation’s autonomy. Despite this so-called The REER is calculated by RBI should 3% interest differential easier said than done. Hence, the only pru-
embedded transport fuel or fertilizer cost trilemma, it is still possible to have partial adjusting the nominal rate implies a cost of $21 billion dent thing to do is avoid too much active
element, or domestic steel facing import control of exchange and interest rates and for differences in inflation restrain its (or about ₹25,000 crore). intervention and only focus on volatility
competition, everything is influenced by keep the economy partially open. This is the with India’s trade partners. On the other hand, RBI’s control, as was done during 2008, 2011 and
that rate. Even a business which has wholly art of policymaking—what economists call They point out that unlike
active forex dividend payouts have 2013 in three different episodes of disruptive

is a Pune-based economist
domestic inputs costs and sales, with all its
transactions in rupees, faces the heat of the
‘interior solutions’ (i.e., not corner solu-
tions). The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is
in the previous two dec-
ades till 2019, the rupee
management been huge in recent years,
which was a result of extra
capital flows. Holding the rupee too strong
hurts not only export prospects, but also the
dollar rate. This is the shadow impact of the
exchange rate. An open economy with a
technically only a custodian of our foreign
exchange reserves, but it also manages the
was actively prevented
from depreciating by
while the Centre dollar sales as well as a
reduction in the risk buffer.
competitiveness of purely domestic busi-
nesses, given the shadow threat of imports.
tradeable sector is subject to competition exchange rate. RBI has a written explicit aggressive sales of India’s aims to attract Invoicing is another Let RBI be restrained in active forex man-
from goods and services traded internation- inflation mandate but no numerical target stock of foreign exchange. dimension of forex policy. agement and aim for gradual depreciation,
ally. The exchange rate thus affects its com- for the dollar rate, which in any case would From February till October more dollars While only about 15% of which is inevitable. Meanwhile, some other
petitiveness, a lack of which cannot be com- be futile. RBI maintains that it lets market of 2022, RBI sold or lost a India’s trade is with the US, non-RBI policy responses designed to
pensated fully by raising import-duty pro- forces determine this rate and intervenes whopping $105 billion of nearly 85% of foreign trade strength the rupee would include enticing
tection; it is eventually counterproductive only to curb excessive volatility. its stock. This was presumably to prevent the is invoiced in US dollars. This too has an higher foreign direct investment inflows,
because tariffs lead to inflation as locally The challenge of managing the exchange rupee from sliding. Was this not an excessive impact on the dollar’s global strength. keeping the domestic growth rate high and
produced protected goods get expensive. rate has other dimensions too. For instance, cost to pay to prevent what should have been In the era of a second Trump presidency reducing our dependence on imported crude
Inflation is the other most important eco- India’s economic growth needs exports as a a natural decline? There are two aspects to and sky-high US debt and budget deficits, oil. All this would be in the domain of New
nomic variable. To keep it in check, interest driver. An exchange rate that is too high can RBI’s stock and sale of dollars. On one hand, the strength of the dollar cannot be stopped Delhi rather than Mint Street. It would also
rates must rise. This delicate dance between hamper exports. For the past few years, our a large stock represents a cost to the nation easily. In the early 1970s, the US Treasury help to tone down the rhetoric of equating
the three variables of inflation, interest rates exports have grown slower than GDP, which in foregone higher returns that could have secretary had quipped that “the dollar is our the rupee’s strength with national strength.
LIVEMINT.COM VIEWS TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI 13

MY VIEW | STATISTICALLY SPEAKING M I N T C U R AT O R

Welfare programmes impact the Expect Trump’s crackdown on

immigration to be disruptive
retail prices relevant to people He is far better placed to act swiftly and harshly this time around

India must update its inflation metrics to reflect actual consumption expenditure patterns for superior policy formulation

MINT

PATRICIA LOPEZ
is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering
politics and policy.

T.C.A. ANANT
is a former chief statistician of India

I
t’s clear that US President-elect Donald
Trump believes he has a mandate to
enact the largest deportation in US his-

T
he Union ministry of statistics and pro- tory. What happens next could forever A conservative US Supreme Court means
gramme implementation (MoSPI) has alter what it means to be an American. legal challenges may fail ISTOCKPHOTO
recently put out a discussion paper on Immigration under President Joe Biden
‘The treatment of PDS items and other surged to levels unmatched in more than a Birthright citizenship: Trump has said
free social transfers in consumer price century—an estimated net increase of 8 that he intends to upend one of the most
index (CPI) compilation.’ First, the million migrants during his four years in fundamental ideas about the US: that no
background: In January 2023, the government office, with a majority crossing illegally, matter where in the world your parents
announced a programme to supply free foodgrains according to a Goldman Sachs report. come from, if you are born here, you are an
(wheat and rice) to around 800 million households Biden was determined to reverse the American. It is a principle specifically
covered under the National Food Security Act. harsh Trump 1.0 policies that limited both enshrined in the 14th Amendment. No
This announcement followed a series of ad hoc kinds of immigration. But Biden never president can override the Constitution
extensions to the free distribution of essential conveyed it. There was no ‘Biden doctrine’ with an executive order. But Trump could
goods initiated during the covid crisis. The rele- to help people understand why he believed create havoc in the meantime by, as he has
vance of this scheme to the index arises from the more immigrants, refugees and asylum said he would, ordering the government to
fact that wheat and rice account for a weight of seekers could prove a net benefit. Finally, stop issuing Social Security numbers and
almost 7.5% of the all-India combined CPI. after Trump killed a bipartisan immigra- passports to offspring of parents who can-
The discussion paper therefore highlights two tion reform bill, Biden re-imposed tighter not prove their legal status.
challenges. One, how to account for the reduction limits on the southern border, but it was Refugee programmes: Biden reduced ille-
in price of Public Distribution System (PDS) items too late to save the election for Democrats. gal border crossings partly by expanding
from a positive value to zero in the ongoing series; Now the US finds itself with the highest programmes that allow legal ones. Think of
and two, how to treat free PDS items in the pro- foreign-born population in its history— his humanitarian parole policy. But the out-
posed new series after the ongoing base-revision over 15 —and a border that’s more porous going president has said he will not renew
exercise is done. The paper follows a ‘user consulta- than secure. And the electorate has proven that authorization for the more than half-
tion’ by MoSPI earlier on the same topic. This exer- susceptible to Trump’s rhetoric. As Trump million immigrants who came from Venez-
cise raised speculation about its impact on inflation prepares to deliver on his top priority, uela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua during his
measurement, as it coincided with observations expect the actions that follow to be swift term. Trump has called Biden’s version an
made by the chief economic advisor and others and ugly. Watch out for five things: “outrageous abuse of parole” and wants to
(including this author) on omitting food inflation The Alien Enemies Act of 1798: Trump and end it. He may also seek to end or restrict
from the ambit of monetary policy discussions. Further, regardless of the method adopted, The issue of free distribution of foodgrains raises his acolytes have described migrants as Temporary Protected Status, which shields
Insofar as the treatment of free foodgrains for when the change was introduced, indices with a larger concern when it comes to CPI compilation “invaders” and border crossings as an more than 800,000 immigrants from spe-
the future series is concerned, the paper cites the and without the change should have been pro- and household consumption patterns. The gov- “invasion.” He has said he will use this law cific countries against deportation.
International Monetary Fund manual on CPI com- duced, alerting users to the change and its impact. ernment may, for example, seek to include the dis- to “remove all known or suspected gang Dreamers: The lone carrot Trump has
pilation, which recommends excluding from the This parallel production of indices should have tribution of pulses and edible oils under welfare members, drug dealers or cartel members held out to Democrats is possible action to
index items that are provided free by the govern- been continued for a period of at least one year to schemes (demands for which are already being from the United States.” The law so far has protect Dreamers—those brought to this
ment or non-profit institutions. This is correct allow users to see the directional impact of the made). This would have an even larger impact on been used only in wartime, and Trump’s country illegally as children, many of whom
because food is only one of the things provided free change. Not adhering to this basic principle of consumption patterns. invocation would surely draw a legal chal- have grown old waiting for more than tem-
by the government. We do not, for example, seek transparency increases doubts about the validity It is therefore important that India’s Household lenge. But the Brennan Center for Justice porary protection in the only homeland
to include the cost of internal or external security, of government statistics on the whole and results Consumption Expenditure Survey be made a has warned that the Act’s language is so they’ve ever known. How genuine is that
which is a standard provision by governments. in unnecessary speculation on likely reasons. In regular ongoing exercise, as is being done with the broad that “a president might be able to offer? It’s up to Trump, whose record is
As for the treatment of free distribution of PDS this case, concerns have been raised about the Periodic Labour Force Survey and Annual Survey wield the authority in peacetime as an end mixed. He also held out a similar promise in
in the ongoing series, the paper suggests that we likely effect of these issues on inflation measure- of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises. This would run around the requirements of criminal his first term, only to go back on it.
either redistribute the weight of these items to ment and consequent policy. allow construction of the CPI as a dynamic chain and immigration law.” Trump also has Hardliners in Congress have already
other items within the same class or redistribute The impact of free distribution of foodgrains on index with frequent revisions to its weighting dia- pledged to use the military and local law expressed reservations about further pro-
the weight broadly over all items in the basket. The inflation is likely to be small. This is because most gram and item basket. The benefits of this would enforcement if necessary. There are prohi- tections for ‘dreamers,’ whose status rests
paper states that the first method was adopted (at of the inflation in food products arises in the cate- not only cover existing policies like dearness bitions against that as well, but it’s anyone’s on an Obama 2012 executive order called
some point) in the ongoing series. This, however, is gories of fruits and vegetables, protein-rich items adjustment (which may even allow for savings guess if they’ll be upheld. Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or
highly problematic. and edible oils. As a result of a government-run thanks to more precise estimations) and inflation Workplace raids: Tom Homan, Trump’s DACA. The order provided a temporary
First, free distribution increases the disposable procurement programme that offers minimum targeting, but also the country’s response to black- nominee for ‘border czar,’ has pledged to shield from deportation and work permits.
income of consumers (because of savings on those support prices (MSPs), cereals (particularly wheat swan events like the covid outbreak. bring back workplace raids. Once a staple If Trump persists, expect him to extract
items). How this extra income is spent depends and rice) tend to witness relatively less retail price To sum up, transparent methodologies, coupled under earlier administrations, they were maximum leverage from any deal.
on the preference pattern of the consumer. It is instability. The most volatility in these categories is with regularly conducted household consumption stopped by Biden. Raids were disruptive to It should be clear even to big doubters
certainly not the case that the extra income will be visible in specialized items that are not covered by surveys, can mitigate doubts and improve the employers and sparked terror in immi- that Trump intends to follow through on
spent only in the category where free distribution the MSP system, such as Basmati rice. Given that utility of the CPI in policymaking. As welfare grant communities, but Homan has said what is now a decade-old pledge to crack
occurs. For example, it is highly unlikely that a such items have a low share in the consumption programmes expand, regularly updating inflation the message is one that needs to be sent. He down on immigration. But this time, he has
household getting free rice will be spending the basket of the median consumer (which is what the metrics by actual consumption patterns will not has said he will start in Chicago. “If your a team in place with the experience and
resultant increase in disposable income only on CPI tracks), the impact on overall inflation would only enhance statistical accuracy, but also enable Chicago mayor doesn’t want to help, he can knowledge to follow through, however
rice and/or other cereals. The correct approach in any case have been small. However, opaqueness better informed economic decisions. It would step aside. But if he impedes us, if he know- brutal it turns out, and also a conservative
would have been to re-allocate the weight of these in the adjustments adopted leads some people to build trust in public data systems and support ingly harbours an illegal alien, I will prose- Supreme Court. That could make all the
items across the entire consumption basket. doubt even correct statistics. effective governance. cute him,” he said. difference. ©BLOOMBERG

GUEST VIEW

AIF industry: At risk of death by a thousand circulars

ban on banks and non-bank finance compa- assets of an AIF. The Securities and Section 58 of the RBI Act states that RBI received stepmotherly treatment from regu-
T.V. MOHANDAS PAI nies (NBFCs) investing in AIFs with expo- Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had permit- may make regulations “with the previous lators. The industry joke is that “Mutual fund
sure to REs’ debtor companies. If an AIF ted AIFs to issue units as partly or fully paid, sanction of the Central Government.” But sahi hai kyunki AIF nahin hai” (Mutual funds
portfolio company had even a mere fixed with RBI’s Form INVI allowing the same. But today, the regulator appears to play judge, are the right choice as AIFs aren’t there).
deposit-backed credit card from a bank, the in early 2023, with no prior consultation or jury, executioner and legislator. Making Sebi’s new ‘specified investment fund’
latter would need to write off its AIF invest- intimation, Form INVI was changed to bar matters worse, it lacks an appellate authority regime lets mutual funds invest in nearly the

E
verybody loves a good fight; a clash of ment. Over ₹12,000 crore has been written PPUs. After a year of multiple representa- to overrule arbitrary moves. same areas as Category III AIFs, with a mini-
equals can be an engaging test of skills off by banks and NBFCs. The government- tions, rules under India’s Sebi often claims that mum ticket size one-tenth that of AIFs.
if fair play is assured. But nobody likes sponsored SWAMIH Fund, meant for Foreign Exchange Man- AIFs have a “light touch” Combined with the tax advantage of mutual
an unequal show of naked power against an affordable housing, is stuck because of this. agement Act saw an ‘expla- Alternative regulatory regime. But a funds and the dismal lack of clarity on Cate-
enfeebled opponent. The year-long ‘regula- The AIF industry protested, but RBI did nation’ inserted to state light touch by an iron hand gory III AIF taxation, it’ll be a miracle if AIFs
tory rumble’ against India’s alternate invest- not relent. A small group that got a meeting that AIF units can be either investment can still deliver a heavy see any investor interest in a few years.
ment fund (AIF) industry is a textbook exam- with it was told that the chapter was closed. partly or fully paid. This blow. At the 2023 Gate- It is for the government to step in and save
ple of regulatory excess. The industry is at In March 2024, the regulator released a cir- was meant to elucidate an
funds generate keepers of Governance the industry from regulatory overreach. A

is chairman, Aarin Capital

risk of suffering a slow death by a thousand
circulars, starting with those issued by the
cular providing cosmetic relief: REs could
invest in AIFs that invest in equity shares,
existing position. Yet, RBI
sent emails to AIFs
value but have event in Mumbai, a Sebi
official mentioned that it
study by the Indian Venture and Alternate
Capital Association concluded that every $10
Partners. Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
As a creation of Parliament, RBI ought to
not equity securities. This marked a break
from treating both the same way, and it must
demanding that they
admit a fault and regularize
been dealt a had issued 167 circulars in
12 months: that’s almost a
million of alternative capital invested in
companies creates $58 million in revenue
be answerable to lawmakers. But it seems to surely have been aware that private equity their PPUs. Distributions harsh blow by circular every two days. and 470 direct jobs, while yielding $12 mil-
have weaponized its autonomy and seems and venture capital funds invest mostly in to foreign investors are Investors need regulatory lion in taxes. Capital formation by AIFs
accountable only to itself. It has gone against equity securities. Concerns that these could stuck on account of this over-regulation stability, not incessant rule drives foreign direct investment, increases
the spirit of liberalization to become exces- be redeemed were far-fetched, as their issue, which RBI has been changes. A slew of circulars tax revenue and spurs economic activity by
sively prescriptive, with fintech firms and redemption norms are the same as for equity reluctant to resolve. With and changes this year have bringing innovation to markets.
AIFs at the receiving end. shares, as accounting standards classify the penalty as high as the capital raised, this left AIFs gasping for air, with many spending Yet, AIFs are consumed and confused by
In December 2023, RBI released ‘Invest- redeemable shares as debt. is patently unfair to AIFs. more time on compliance than on invest- compliance. AIFs need three compliance
ment in AIFs,’ an innocuously titled circular. Another example of RBI’s lack of consul- Despite AIFs bringing in convertible cur- ment. For them, regulatory risk has come to executives for each investment team mem-
It was akin to curing dandruff by decapita- tation is the issue of partly paid units (PPUs). rency funds, their $1.5 billion overseas invest- exceed market risk, although sophisticated ber. Capital raised by AIFs slowed drasti-
tion. To resolve the issue of some AIFs being AIFs units are a ‘beneficial interest,’ an ment allowance hasn’t been renewed in over investors don’t need the same protections as cally in 2024 over 2023. Overregulation
used by RBI regulated entities (REs) to ever- undefined term taken to mean the right to 30 months, while mutual funds have had at their retail counterparts. has mutated India’s red carpet for investors
green loans, the regulator placed an effective receive a defined portion of the income and least two renewals. Why the dichotomy? Category III AIFs in India have always into red tape.
14 TUESDAY, 7 JANUARY 2025
CHENNAI BUSINESS OF LIFE WELLNESS LIVEMINT.COM

For a balanced life, take

the heroine’s journey
Tired of the busy life,
ISTOCKPHOTO

people today are

embracing workshops
that explore an alternate
idea of living anchored
in feminine wisdom Now, tech tools
Hariprasad Varma
[email protected]
to test cortisol,
soothe anxiety
M
odern workplaces and social
systems we have in place
today reflect a deep-rooted
misalignment with natural
feminine cycles and energies.
Perhaps, the most significant indicator of this is
A range of tech tools for mental health
the global shift in the way time is perceived. will be showcased at CES ‘25 in Vegas
Indigenous cultures around the world followed
the lunar calendar which honored natural
rhythms. Lunar time is cyclical in nature and AFP
emphasizes the patterns of death and rebirth [email protected]
captured metaphorically in the phenomena of

W
the waxing and waning moon. hether detecting rising anxiety or managing a full-
Modern-day Gregorian calendar, first intro- blown panic attack, the tech industry is offering an
duced by Pope Gregory XIII in October 1582, is array of new tools designed to support mental health.
a solar calendar. Solar calendar emphasizes lin- Scores of start-ups will pitch their solutions at this year’s Con-
ear time over cyclical patterns and standardizes sumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (from 7 to 11 January)
months into artificial lengths that do not corre- including Swiss firm Nutrix, which is introducing cortiSense to
spond to natural cycles. The design and intent measure levels of the so-called stress hormone cortisol.
behind this view of time was primarily to cater A small cylindrical object with a thin strip at one end, corti-
to the industrial and commercial needs of the Sense allows users to test and analyze their saliva directly — with-
time rather than serve one’s biological rhythms. out having to spit into a tube and send it to a laboratory, according
This fundamental shift has led to a loss of con- to Nutrix. Results can be consulted in minutes via a mobile app.
nection of daily routine with the rhythms of Up to now, Nutrix founder Maria Hahn said, to test your corti-
nature. Companies and governments follow sol “you need to go to the hospital, or you need to send your sam-
systems of artificial division of time into busi- ples.” If users’ levels prove to be too high, Nutrix says it can put
ness quarters and fiscal years rather than natu- them in touch with health professionals to help craft an appropri-
ral seasons. What has got lost in this reasoning ate response. Hahn said cortiSense could be a useful complement
is the knowledge that our bodies respond differ- to other Nutrix monitors, like gSense, which compiles data on
ently to each season. Our energy levels and sleep, weight, physical activity and glucose levels. “It’s about
sleep and dietary requirements among others empowering the user,” she said.
tend to vary with the seasons. This suppression New York psychologist Julie Kolzet cautioned that “these are
of natural cycles has a grave impact on mental not treatment devices, but adjunctive products that can help aid
health. Stress induced from the efforts to fit into in initial assessment (and) screening.”
artificial rhythms , for instance,affects digestive French firm Baracoda, meanwhile, is presenting BMind, which
and reproductive health. it calls “the world’s first AI-powered smart mirror for mental well-
ness.” Baracoda says the device has an integrated camera that can
GETTING INTO A RHYTHM help identify signs of stress or fatigue— and then suggest the user
The impact of misaligned structures on health take a moment to relax, view soothing
is felt more acutely by women. Often, their peak Tech companies images and listen to comforting music.
career-building years coincide with peak fertil- like CalmiGo Then there is CalmiGo, a small
ity years, and the biological rhythm of mother- the divine feminine and its contemporary appli- apps, there are women facilitators today who A FRAMEWORK FOR HEALING handheld device to be used in
hood is seen as a “career setback”. Even the nat- cations in daily life for healthy living. An are extending these conversations offline by Sylwia Savitā, a practitioner of Sensual Somatic and Nutrix are moments of panic which activates the
ural need for rest during menstruation is con- extremely current illustration of this interest is designing workshops that seek to explore an Healing in Bali, organises workshops based on creating devices parasympathetic nervous system,
sidered a weakness, and career women are the trend of cycle syncing that got popular last alternate idea of power and way of living the Heroine’s Journey. Designed by Maureen to empower slowing down the user’s heart rate and
expected to maintain high energy and engage- year among millennials and Gen Z. The practice anchored in common feminine archetypes Murdock, a family therapist and writer based in the user helping regulate emotions. Company
ment regardless of their physical and emotional encourages women to align their diet and lifes- such as the Maiden, the Mother and the Crone. California, the Heroine’s Journey framework CEO Adi Wallach said the goal was to
state in corporate and social spaces. The recent tyle with the menstrual cycle. The menstrual “Working with archetypes is universal and draws inspiration from Joseph Campbell’s “create products that people can take
debate and controversy in India around the phase, for instance, is a time to do low-impact women can easily connect to them,” says Kolka- model of the heroic quest. Here, the heroine’s with them everywhere they go, and use it in order to calm down
necessity for a menstrual day leave in organiza- exercises like yoga or ta-based Sukhvinder journey begins with “separation from the femi- without being dependent on other people or on medication.”
tions bear testimony to this reality. walking while the fol- Sircar . A senior facili- nine” and ends with “integration of masculine The user places her mouth on the device, which looks like an
“The menstrual woman lives in a male-ori- licular phase when Living a life not attuned to tator with Indian and feminine”. This framework, overall, offers asthmatic’s inhaler, and then breathes at a pace indicated by a
ented society which influences her perception estrogen levels are nature’s cycles can affect the Society for Applied a map of the feminine healing process. “Recon- flashing light— a pace the company says is calculated, using arti-
of the world and herself. In the industrialized rising is a time to go Behavioural Sciences necting, reclaiming, and rewriting your sexual ficial intelligence, to work best for each individual. The machine
western culture, which likes to think of itself as for high intensity body and cause digestive issues (ISABS), Sircar hosts narrative is a big part of the Heroine’s Journey,” stimulates four of the five senses with its luminous signals, a
‘enlightened’, the menstrual cycle is still rarely exercises. In Red as well as mental stress the Joyous Women explains Savitā. As for why such communal physical vibration that also produces a sound, and soothing aro-
talked about except in medical terms. Menstru- Moon, Gray treats the community, which retreats are beneficial, she says, “When you sit mas that “detach you from an anxious state,” the company says.
ation is still viewed today as a biological disad- whole of the cycle as offers programmes in a women’s circle and engage fully, you will CalmiGo says that a clinical study on former soldiers suffering
vantage to women, making them emotional, the menstrual experience rather than the time that teach men and women to get in touch with find stories that resonate with you. Also, sharing from post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD)—undertaken in
unreasoning, and unreliable workers,” Miranda of bleeding alone. And she sounds prescient their feminine energies for a balanced life. an experience together instills a sense of collaboration with faculty at Israel’s Reichman University—
Gray, author and mentor of a women’s cycle- when she says, “If women become aware that “Working with feminine archetypes and the belonging in each person in the circle.” found that anxiety levels could be reduced within a few weeks.
based life-coaching course, wrote in her 1994 they are cyclic beings during their menstrual menstrual mandala (a visual period tracker) Visitors to the CES may also meet Romi, a tabletop robot that
book Red Moon. lives, then they begin to recognize that they are have brought me in tune with my body’s natural Hariprasad Varma is an executive coach & the MIXI company says “many in Japan use to ease their anxiety
While it may seem interminable, there’s a part of the greater rhythms of the universe and rhythm and cycles, creating much ease in my yoga therapist based out of Hyderabad. and loneliness.” Psychologist Kolzet is skeptical of the ability of
quiet yet profound shift unfolding that ques- come closer to accepting their true nature and being,” says Akanksha Thakore, a well-being robots, or more generally AI, to respond meaningfully to under-
tions the current paradigms. Globally, there is finding harmony in their lives.” facilitator based in Mumbai and a member of For more stories on health and wellness, visit lying causes of anxiety or depression. “Patients want to feel safe
a growing interest about the ancient wisdom of In addition to trends fuelled by social media the Joyous Women community. livemint.com/mint-lounge. and validated, and I don’t think a robot can do that.”

This could be the best core exercise you’ve never done

A modification of the the same exercise started popping up on
my feed with some practitioners calling it
Zercher squat, the the “best ever”.
‘ab squat’ is a dynamic
WHAT’S THE INSPIRATION?
workout that completely The interesting part about any exercise is
engages your core its origin story. With every variation, there
is usually a parent exercise. Comments
about the ab squat on Reddit and other
Pulasta Dhar social media platforms took me to the Zer-
[email protected] cher squat. It was invented by Ed Zercher
in the 1930s because he did not have a

T
raining the abs begins with basic squat rack. “Eddie Zercher would wedge
floor exercises like crunches and his elbows into the crook of the bar and
mountain climbers, sure, but even- deadlift the bar up. From the completed
tually, it has evolve into something more. deadlift position, he would then squat
This entails adding cardio and other fat down holding the barbell in the crook of
burning routines and core exercises his arms, with a wicked flex in his biceps,
which also include weights. Add some as he squatted down with the front-loaded prevents that from happening. Killing up. The ab squat, on the other hand, lets
hanging leg raises and ab rollouts to this barbell,” says an article on Garage two birds with one stone on this workout gravity take the force down on the lower
mix, and you have a proper method that Strength, which convinces gym-goers variation for sure,” writes popular Ameri- body, and makes it work against it with
can help you build a strong, good-looking that they don’t necessarily need to go can fitness instructor Alexander Siquig feet firmly on the ground. Which is why
midriff. through the discomfort of the Zercher (from left) Practising the Zercher squat; a demo of the ab squat. PHOTOGRAPHS BY ISTOCKPHOTO on his Instagram page (@alexsiquig) the front loading becomes necessary. I
I was recently scrolling through Insta- squat. That said, the Zercher squat does along with an accompanying video. What tried this exercise over the past week and
gram and came across a video that had its work the abs. ance.com article, titled Zercher Squat: The First, pick up the bar and do a barbell this movement does is quite unique but I could feel its impact on my core instantly.
title boldly asking ‘Is this the greatest ab “When you load the bar on your elbows, Best Damn Lower Body Exercise You’ve curl with a slightly high flex. Next, do the crux of it can be summed up in one While practising it, one, make sure to
exercise we didn’t know about?’ Now it is one of the first things you’ll notice is that Never Done. squats, while letting the bar fall slightly statement: This is an isometric hold of find the right angle of the bicep flexion;
very rare for fitness creators and experts to your entire body wants to topple forward. forward. The first video I watched sug- the upper body combined with a two, stack it properly so that you’re not
point to something as “the greatest ever” Your abs are forced to contract and stabi- STEPS FOR DOING AN AB SQUAT gested that this routine only works the dynamic movement of the lower, and all working the biceps as the primary muscles
but the large text, along with the visual of lize your spine. Unlike front and back To do an ab squat, you’d need an Olympic abs. That’s not entirely true. The legs are of it held together by the core. of the movement; three, lean forward
an athlete doing an exercise which resem- squats, the load is very close to your core bar. A smaller one is fine if you are just equally engaged and the biceps get a good The laws of physics come well into play slightly to make sure the core is engaged
bled a front squat, drew me in. Further in a Zercher squat. This proximity starting out, but ideally you’d need one workout too when you hold the bar up. in the ab squat. Many ab exercises, like the to keep your body in the right position.
research suggested that this exercise is increases the force required from the core weighing 10 kg to be able to feel the down- “The barbell makes you want to fall hanging leg raise, make the body work Soon you’ll know why the ab squat is a var-
called an ‘ab squat’. Soon, more videos of to maintain stability,” says a bachperform- ward force of the barbell. forward but keeping your core/abs tight against gravity by pulling the lower body iation you want to add to your routine.