Lesson-1.2_Math-3
Lesson-1.2_Math-3
Let’s Read:
stream is an important variable. Factors that may affect the distillate are the reboil
temperature, the condensate temperature, and the reflux rate. Production personnel obtain
and archive the following records:
• The concentration of acetone in an hourly test sample of output product
• The reboil temperature log, which is a plot of the reboil temperature over time
• The condenser temperature controller log
• The nominal reflux rate each hour
The reflux rate should be held constant for this process. Consequently, production
personnel change this very infrequently. A retrospective study would use either all or
a sample of the historical process data archived over some period of time. The study
objective might be to discover the relationships among the two temperatures and the
reflux rate on the acetone concentration in the output product stream. However, this
type of study presents some problems:
1. We may not be able to see the relationship between the reflux rate and acetone
concentration, because the reflux rate didn’t change much over the historical period.
2. The archived data on the two temperatures (which are recorded almost continuously)
do not correspond perfectly to the acetone concentration measurements (which are
made hourly). It may not be obvious how to construct an approximate
correspondence.
3. Production maintains the two temperatures as closely as possible to desired targets
or set points. Because the temperatures change so little, it may be difficult to assess
their real impact on acetone concentration.
4. Within the narrow ranges that they do vary, the condensate temperature tends to
increase with the reboil temperature. Consequently, the effects of these two process
variables on acetone concentration may be difficult to separate.
As you can see, a retrospective study may involve a lot of data, but that data may contain
relatively little useful information about the problem. Furthermore, some of the relevant data
may be missing, there may be transcription or recording errors resulting in outliers (or unusual
values), or data on other important factors may not have been collected and archived. In the
distillation column, for example, the specific concentrations of butyl alcohol and acetone in the
input feed stream are a very important factor, but they are not archived because the
concentrations are too hard to obtain on a routine basis. As a result of these types of issues,
statistical analysis of historical data sometimes identifies interesting phenomena, but solid and
reliable explanations of these phenomena are often difficult to obtain.
1.2.3. Observational Study
In an observational study, the engineer observes the process or population, disturbing it as
little as possible, and records the quantities of interest. Because these studies are usually
conducted for a relatively short time period, sometimes variables that are not routinely
measured can be included. In the distillation column, the engineer would design a form to record
the two temperatures and the reflux rate when acetone concentration measurements are made.
It may even be possible to measure the input feed stream concentrations so that the impact of
this factor could be studied. Generally, an observational study tends to solve problems 1 and 2
above and goes a long way toward obtaining accurate and reliable data. However, observational
studies may not help resolve problems 3 and 4.
1.2.4. Designed Experiments
In a designed experiment the engineer makes deliberate or purposeful changes in the
controllable variables of the system or process, observes the resulting system output data, and
then makes an inference or decision about which variables are responsible for the observed
changes in output performance. Designed experiments play a very important role in engineering
design and development and in the improvement of manufacturing processes. Generally, when
products and processes are designed and developed with designed experiments, they enjoy
better performance, higher reliability, and lower overall costs. Designed experiments also play
a crucial role in reducing the lead time for engineering design and development activities.
For example, consider the problem involving the choice of wall thickness for the nylon
connector. This is a simple illustration of a designed experiment. The engineer chose two wall
thicknesses for the connector and performed a series of tests to obtain pull-off force
measurements at each wall thickness. In this simple comparative experiment, the engineer is
interested in determining if there is any difference between the 3/32- and 1/8-inch designs. An
approach that could be used in analyzing the data from this experiment is to compare the mean
pull-off force for the 3/32-inch design to the mean pull-off force for the 1/8-inch design using
statistical hypothesis testing Generally, a hypothesis is a statement about some aspect of the
system in which we are interested. For example, the engineer might want to know if the mean
pull-off force of a 3/32-inch design exceeds the typical maximum load expected to be
encountered in this application, say 12.75 pounds. Thus, we would be interested in testing the
hypothesis that the mean strength exceeds 12.75 pounds. This is called a single sample
hypothesis testing problem. Alternatively, the engineer might be interested in testing the
hypothesis that increasing the wall thickness from 3/32- to 1/8-inch results in an increase in
mean pull-off force. Clearly, this is an analytic study; it is also an example of a two-sample
hypothesis testing problem.
Designed experiments are a very powerful approach to studying complex systems, such
as the distillation column. This process has three factors, the two temperatures and the reflux
rate, and we want to investigate the effect of these three factors on output acetone concentration.
A good experimental design for this problem must ensure that we can separate the effects of all
three factors on the acetone concentration. The specified values of the three factors used in the
experiment are called factor levels. Typically, we use a small number of levels for each factor,
such as two or three. For the distillation column problem, suppose we use a “high,’’ and “low,’’
level (denoted +1 and -1, respectively) for each of the factors. We thus would use two levels
for each of the three factors. A very reasonable experiment design strategy uses every possible
combination of the factor levels to form a basic experiment with eight different settings for the
process. This type of experiment is called a factorial experiment. Table 1-1 presents this
experimental design.
Figure 1-6, illustrates that this design forms a cube in terms of these high and low levels.
With each setting of the process conditions, we allow the column to reach equilibrium, take a
sample of the product stream, and determine the acetone concentration. We then can draw
specific inferences about the effect of these factors. Such an approach allows us to proactively
study a population or process. Designed experiments play a very important role in engineering
and science.
Let’s Remember:
Basic Principles
In the previous section, we illustrated some simple methods for summarizing data. In
the engineering environment, the data is almost always a sample that has been selected
from some population. Three basic methods of collecting data are:
• A retrospective study using historical data
• An observational study
• A designed experiment
An effective data collection procedure can greatly simplify the analysis and lead to
improved understanding of the population or process that is being studied. We now
consider some examples of these data collection methods.
Let’s Do This:
Write your answers clearly in your answer sheets for the following questions:
1. Discuss the different methods that engineers use to collect data
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2. Identify the advantages that designed experiments have in comparison to other methods of
collecting engineering data.
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