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Implementation of Ageing Laws and Cable Models to Estimate Service Life for MV Cable
Designs using Laboratory Endurance Tests

Essay Wen SHU, Nigel HAMPTON, Josh PERKEL; NEETRAC, (USA), [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected]

ABSTRACT these accelerating factors, which are used to make the

tests to implement in practical timescales.
Investment in the distribution system continues, with a
greater fraction than ever being directed at the use of
underground cable systems. This is primarily due to the APPROACH
reported order of magnitude improvement in SAIDI and
SAIFI with respect to overhead lines. Feedback from utility The approach used in this work was to collate the results
cable engineers consistently shows that the anticipated of many public domain ACLT tests to model the impact of
longevity of the cable system is the number one priority temperature, electrical stress and some elements of cable
when deciding on which cable design to employ at their design. Algorithms were then constructed to scale test data
utility. Recent advances can be recognised with the almost on short cores to long cables in service using Life
50% reduction in failure rate in the last 10 – 20 years. Expansion and Reduction Factors. The expansion and
However, it is not clear what the longevity is and how much reduction factors for life are summarized:
is contributed by the different elements of the cable design.
This work uses laboratory data to detail the impact of • Life Expansion Factors
design and installation / operating conditions.
o Lower voltages in service compared to test
voltages
KEYWORDS o Lower temperatures in service compared to
temperatures used in the tests
Reliability, Extruded Cable Systems, Life Estimation
o Use of jackets in service cables compared to
jacketless cables used in tests
INTRODUCTION o Lower load factors in service
Feedback from utility cable engineers consistently shows o Absence of water in the conductor interstices
that the anticipated longevity of the cable system is the • Life Reduction Factors
number one priority when deciding on which cable design
o Longer lengths installed in service compared to
to employ at their utility. Longevity is ranked significantly
the short lengths employed in lab tests
more highly than first cost or temperature rating etc. This
o Higher volume of insulation used in service cables
finding can be understood when recognising that failures
due to the larger conductor sizes compared to the
adversely impact SAIDI/SAIFI data and represent
relatively small conductors used in tests
considerable Operations and Maintenance Costs. Thus
o Lower critical risk levels (B1 or B5) for cable
anticipated life is a key factor in determining the total, rather
failures considered by utilities compared to the
than first, cost of a cable system.
mean lives (B50) considered by tests.
Initial service performance of extruded cable systems is
well documented and has led to many improvements in ACLT PROTOCOL
design, manufacturing, materials, specification and testing.
The benefits of these developments are easily recognised ACLT was initially proposed by Bob Lyle of Alcoa Cable
through the non-reoccurrence of early poor performance, Company [1]. Various compound manufacturers, cable
with useful service lives extending past 20 years. However, manufacturers, and research laboratories adopted the
it is much more difficult to determine the anticipated life of aging program to evaluate cable core performance and to
a cable design and thus the benefits of a particular design develop an understanding of how specific cable core
element (jacket or WTRXLPE or supersmooth semicon designs perform. The test protocol including critical test
etc). In principle, such lives could be determined from utility parameters (i.e. sample, preconditioning, test conditions),
records. However, the volume and fidelity of records are techniques for measurement, control of the conditions and
not sufficient, in most cases, to support such analyses. reporting were recommended in IEEE 1407 [2].
Thus, the only recourse to garner these estimates is to
Compared to Accelerated Water Treeing Test (AWTT, a
return to laboratory test data and to model the impact of
commonly used accelerated aging test qualification
design elements on the life in service.
protocol), the principle benefit of using ACLT results for
A multi-disciplinary team of experts drawn from utilities, cable life estimation is that the data generated from ACLT
manufacturers and academia examined the options and is time-to-failure, the most relevant descriptor to a utility.
recognised that the most appropriate starting point was the
The disadvantage of ACLT is that the test duration is
Accelerated Cable Life Test (ACLT). The principle benefit
uncontrolled/undefined and sometimes can be too long to
was that the outcome of these tests were described in
make economic sense or provide meaningful results in a
terms of time to a specified endurance for voltage /
timely manner. This is especially a problem when cables
temperature / environmental acceleration; most usually
are expected to last longer with the advancement of
mean life (B50). However, for practical cable designs these
modern cable technology. It thus becomes more and more
data are not directly usable as they are developed for short
difficult to fail a cable (i.e. require longer aging time) and
lengths of cable cores tested at elevated temperatures and
less economical to conduct such a test. Sometimes,
voltages. Thus, the modeling activity needs to deconvolve

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samples that do not fail within a reasonable timeframe are conductors.

subjected to AC Breakdown test (ACBD) to obtain dielectric • Jacket. One of the primary functions of the cable jacket
strength information. is to limit moisture ingress into the cable insulation.
ACLT evaluates the cable core, which does not include
Except for a limited study by EPRI [3] using specially
a jacket. Modern cables are typically jacketed, although
produced cables, other research on ACLT has not
there is still plenty of unjacketed legacy cable installed.
attempted to estimate cable service life. Those ACLT data
• Performance Requirement. The ACLT runs the test
are more often used to evaluate cable core endurance
until all of the samples (100%) fail. Anecdotal evidence
performance (i.e. to compare the core performance of two
provided through utility interactions indicates that
cable designs and to verify design improvements) [4]-[13].
utilities generally become concerned when 10% of the
TEST DATA VS. SERVICE LIFE field cable population first fails. In other words, the B10
life (time at which 10% fails) is more relevant to utilities.
Although the ACLT has a metric of time (the language of This is further confirmed by a recent study with utilities
cable life), there are many adjustments required to bridge to establish the critical failure rate for batteries used in
the gaps between the test conditions and actual service distribution automation devices. The poll results
operating conditions. The gaps include, indicate that utilities would be concerned and act to
correct the problem when 5% of those batteries fail or
• Voltage (Electrical Stress). ACLT tests a standard cable
become unavailable [15]. Although the reliability
configuration, i.e. 15 kV, 1/0, 175 mils, and at four times
requirement varies by the type of devices, the
the nominal operating voltage (Uo). The average
consensus is that the device life that matters to utilities
electrical stress in the cable insulation during the aging
is significantly lower than the B50 or B100 life (time at
test is 8 kV/mm, compared with a typical average
which 100% fails) and is more likely in the range of the
operating electrical stress in the cable insulation of 2
B5 life to the B10 life.
kV/mm. Depending on the insulation thickness, i.e.
100%, 133%, and other thicknesses, the average All these gaps between test data and service life need to
electrical stress can be different from 2 kV/mm but be bridged to derive the cable life at service conditions.
much less than 8 kV/mm.
• Operating Temperature. In the test protocol, cables are SOURCE OF DATA
aged at a programmed conductor temperature (30 °C
to 75 °C) and loaded 8 hours on and 16 hours off. This This work collated extensive ACLT data from 10
controlled condition does not exist in the field. A recent organizations. The majority (~80%) of the data included in
study by the authors indicated that half of the this work are from cables examined in the 1980’s to pre-
underground distribution (URD) cables operate at the 2000. Cables serving the underground systems from this
conductor temperature of 45 °C to 60 °C. The majority period are 20 to 40 years old. They are the backbone of the
(>80%) of feeder cables operate at the conductor present URD systems and are of the most interest to
temperature of 75 °C to 90 °C [14]. These temperatures utilities from an asset management perspective.
are likely not the same as the aging temperature in an Table 2. Collated ACLT Data Coverage
ACLT. Moreover, the operating temperature of a real
system is load dependent and typically not operated at Voltage Conductor Wall Insulation
a constant temperature for a fixed number of hours. Class Size Thickness Type
• Conductor Size. The insulation volume of a cable,
15 kV #2 175 mil HMWPE
which is an enlargement/reduction factor of the cable
20 kV 1/0 200 mil XLPE
life, is dependent on the conductor size. ACLT
35 kV 4/0 220 mil TRXLPE
commonly tests 1/0 AWG cable, although #2 AWG
345 mil EPR
cable was also used in earlier tests before IEEE 1407
was established. The conductor size used in the field Test Test Test
Jacket
could, however, vary from 4/0 AWG to 1,500 kcmil Length Voltage Temperature
AWG depending on its application.
Jacketed 15 ft. 2Uo 45 °C
• Cable Length. Cable length is another factor in cable
Non- 30 ft. 3Uo 60 °C
life. A typical testing length is 15 ft. Test lengths of 30
jacketed 35 ft. 4Uo 75 °C
ft. or 35 ft. were also used if the residual breakdown
90 °C
strength was to be measured after cable aging. The
typical length of a cable section is, however, 100 ft. to
300 ft. for a URD system and approximately 1,000 ft. for The data covers 124 unique datasets including 1,398 cable
a feeder system. segments tested under accelerated conditions that add up
• Environmental Conditions. Moisture is one of the critical to 32,000 feet (6.1 miles) of cable cores.
components for water trees to develop in the extruded
cable insulation and cause cable failure in service. Data collated in this work covers a wide range of cable
During an ACLT test, the cables are placed in a tank. configurations, test lengths, and test conditions. A
Both the interstitial spaces of the cable’s conductor and summary of the data coverage appears in Table 2. The
the tank are filled with deionized water or tap water. In variety of data sources, testing conditions, and cable
other words, cables are continuously exposed to water configurations makes the model developed in this work
from both the inside and the outside of the cable. During immune to overfitting issues.
field operations, cables are typically exposed to a wet
environment only on the exterior surface and primarily DATA SUMMARIES AND PARAMETERS
at discrete locations. In extreme cases where the cable
termination/joint is broken, water may get into the The method used to analyze the time-to-failure data is the

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Weibull Analysis. The Weibull distribution is widely used in shape parameter is assigned as 4 for PE based insulation
reliability and life data analysis due to its versatility and its and 2 for EPR insulation.
essentially graphical approach [16] and is recommended
by IEEE 1407 [2]. ANALYSIS
Examples of the Weibull analysis on the individual data set The approach used in this work was to collate the results
appear in Figure 2. This graph shows the analysis of 20 of many public domain ACLT tests to model the impact of
typical, out of the 124 collated, datasets that are tested at temperature, electrical stress and some elements of cable
different temperatures, voltages, length, insulation design. Algorithms were then constructed to scale test data
volumes, etc. The estimated correlation coefficients for the on short cores to long cables in service using Life
individual datasets indicate a good fit of the data to the Expansion and Reduction Factors.
Weibull distribution.
Volume and Stress Multipliers
ACLT is performed at discrete aging conditions. As an
example, ACLT testing at the average electrical stress of 2
kV/mm (Uo), 4 kV/mm (2Uo), 6 kV/mm (3 Uo) and 8 kV/mm
(4Uo) in the cable insulation for the standard cable
configuration. The average electrical stresses at field
operating conditions for many cable configurations are
different from any of the tested stresses. For example, the
average electrical stress in the cable insulation of a 15 kV
with 220 mil insulation thickness cable is 1.55 kV/mm. To
estimate cable life for any medium voltage class cable
configurations (i.e. cables operated at any given electrical
stress) operating at any conductor temperature between
ambient temperature to 90 °C or even 105 °C, a regression
model is needed to
Figure 2. Examples of Weibull analysis for the
individual dataset. • interpolate data at the region where test data is
available at discrete test conditions;
The scale parameter, α, gives an indication of the predicted • extrapolate data at the region beyond where test data
life and is the value of the measured variable at a is available at discrete test conditions (Figure 4).
probability of 63.2%. The expansion and reduction factors
will be applied to the scale parameters unless a change in
the failure mechanism is resulted from those factors.

Figure 3. Boxplot of the shape parameters by Figure 4. Illustration of using contour plot for data
insulation type – median given by central line within interpolation / extrapolation for XLPE data as.
box.
A regression model was constructed to predict cable life
The shape parameter, β, is the slope of the Weibull based on electrical stress and conductor temperature using
distribution curve. The value of the shape parameter the scale parameters calculated for XLPE insulation data.
indicates the characteristic failure mechanism. Figure 3 A statistically significant equation was developed,
shows the boxplot of the shape parameters of the collated
ACLT data by insulation type. Assuming that the failure 𝛼𝛼 𝑇𝑇 = 8445 − 988 ∙ 𝐸𝐸 − 91.4 ∙ 𝑇𝑇 + 10.85 ∙ 𝐸𝐸 ∙ 𝑇𝑇 [1]
modes for high molecular polyethylene (HMWPE), XLPE • E is the average electrical stress in the cable, kV/mm
and cross-linked polyethylene (TRXLPE) are the same, the • T is the conductor temperature, °C
shape parameters for these PE based insulation test data
are lumped together. It is noted that the shape para-meters The following equation is derived in order to start from given
for EPR insulation have a larger variation than those for PE ACLT data at a known testing condition (ET, TT).
based insulation. This is possibly due to the differences in 𝛼𝛼1 = 𝛼𝛼 𝑇𝑇 ∙ 𝑅𝑅(𝐸𝐸, 𝑇𝑇) [2]
chemical ingredient composition of EPR compound in its 𝛼𝛼(𝐸𝐸, 𝑇𝑇)
chemical ingredient compositions from manufacturer to 𝑅𝑅(𝐸𝐸, 𝑇𝑇) =
𝛼𝛼(𝐸𝐸𝑇𝑇 , 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 )
manufacturer. Based on the results from Figure 3, the

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• αT from ACLT data at a known testing condition (ET, TT) cable is plotted in Figure 6.
• α1 is the characteristic life after (E,T) transformation Jacket / Moisture Adjustment
Length Adjustment Upon research of public domain ACLT data, there is not
any external ACLT program that investigated the effects of
A typical ACLT test length is 15 ft. A significant portion of the cable jacket. A prior NEETRAC baseline project 97-409
the test length is submerged under the water and the rest focused on developing a new cable design aging protocol
above the water for termination purpose. This cable length and tested 20 cable design/test conditions with moisture-
is, however, not typical in field applications. A URD cable blocked conductor and an overall jacket [18]. These data
segment, which connects distribution transformers, is were analyzed using Weibull distribution and compared to
typically in the range of 100 ft. to 300 ft. A feeder cable, unjacketed data, as shown in Figure 7. A three-parameter
which emanates from substations to the distribution Weibull was used to fit the ACLT data of jacketed cables.
network, is typically in the range of 1000 ft. These lengths The adjustments for jacket/moisture effect were applied to
are significantly different from the tested cable length in the both the scale parameter and the shape parameter using
ACLT environment. The well-known enlargement law [17]
exercised in Equation 2 is thus applied to include cable 𝛼𝛼𝑆𝑆 = 𝛼𝛼3 ∙ 5.89 + 367 [4]
length effect on cable service.
𝛽𝛽𝑆𝑆 = 𝛽𝛽𝑇𝑇 + 2 [5]
𝜶𝜶𝟐𝟐 = 𝜶𝜶𝟏𝟏 ∙ 𝑅𝑅(𝐿𝐿) [3]
𝟏𝟏� • α3, βT are the Weibull parameters of unjacketed cable
𝒍𝒍 𝜷𝜷𝑻𝑻
with water-filled conductor strands
𝑅𝑅(𝐿𝐿) = � �
𝑳𝑳 • αS, βS are the Weibull parameter of jacketed cable with
• α2 is the characteristic life at the cable service length L blocked conductor strands
99
• α1 is the characteristic life at the tested cable length l
90
• R(L) is the cable length enlargement coefficient 80
70
• βT is the shape parameter of the tested cable core 60
50
40
(unjacketed cable with water-filled conductor strands) 30
20
for specific insulation type.
Percent

10
Since the standard ACLT test length is 15ft., the length 5
enlargement coefficient with reference to 15 ft. is commonly 3
2
used. As an example, the cable length enlargement
1
coefficient for a 250 ft. cable to a 15 ft. test length is 0.5 for
TRXLPE insulated cable and 0.25 for EPR insulated cable. Jacketed
N
Y
Insulation Volume Adjustment 0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10 1 00 1 000
Time to Failure (days) - Threshold

Figure 7. Weibull analysis of un-jacketed and jacketed

ACLT data.

Life Statement Calculation

When discussing cable life, it is common to refer to the
average life. The average life is also known in the reliability
industry as the B50 life, the age at which 50% of the units
will experience their first failure. In general, B life is the age
at which a certain percentage of the units will experience
their first failure. The number following the letter B indicates
that percentage. Depending on the consequence of the
failure, the tolerance to failure could be significantly
Figure 6. Enlargement coefficient for insulation different for different industries. As an example, B0.01 life
volume adjustment. is used for critical parts that can lead to catastrophic failures
The enlargement law (Equation 4) is also applicable to in the civilian aerospace industry. Considering the utility
adjust for insulation volume effect. This allows users to industry, it is our impression from anecdotes that utilities
estimate service life of cables that have a conductor size generally become concerned when 10% of the field cable
and/or insulation thickness and hence volume V different population experiences its first failure. In other words, the
from that of a standard test cable (v). failure becomes noticeable and utilities would start to
develop plans of action. The consensus is that the device
𝜶𝜶𝟑𝟑 = 𝜶𝜶𝟐𝟐 ∙ 𝑅𝑅(𝑉𝑉) [4] life that matters to utilities is significantly lower than the B50
𝟏𝟏
𝒗𝒗 �𝜷𝜷𝑻𝑻 life (time at which 50% fails) and is more likely in the range
𝑅𝑅(𝑉𝑉) = � � of the B5 life to B10 life.
𝑽𝑽
• α3 is characteristic life with insulation volume of V As discuss earlier, the scale parameter gives the B63 life.
• α2 is ttested cable characteristic life with volume of v The following equation, derived from Weibull distribution,
• R(V) is the insulation volume adjustment coefficient can be used to obtain the B life at the reliability level of the
user’s interest.
The insulation volume adjustment coefficient with reference 𝟏𝟏�
to a 1/0 AWG, 175 mils insulation thickness standard test 𝑩𝑩(𝒑𝒑) 𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳𝑳 = 𝛼𝛼𝑆𝑆 ∙ [−𝒍𝒍𝒍𝒍(𝟏𝟏 − 𝒑𝒑)] 𝛽𝛽𝑆𝑆 [6]

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• αs, βs are the Weibull parameters derived from the 100 of these 300 ft. cables with this specific cable
acceleration/reduction adjustments configuration and operating conditions were installed in the
• p is tolerance of failure or unreliability level system at year 0,
• B(p) life is the age at which p% of the cables will
• 1 out of 100 would experience its first failure by year 10;
experience their first failure.
• 10 out of 100 would fail for their first time by year 16;
• 90 out of 100 would see first failure by year 25; and
CASE STUDY • The average life (B50, 50 out of 100 would fail by this
A few case studies show how the modeling may be used. age) of this cable is 21 years.
A summary of the tested case studies appears in Table 3.
These case studies also illustrate how the model may be Such a segment may well be repaired and remain in service
used. after the first failure. However, the reliability of this segment
will decline due to the continued ageing of the remaining
Table 3. A Summary of Tested Case Studies original cable, the introduction of one or more joints and
Case ACLT Service potentially deleterious effects of fault location. The jointing
process introduces potential week links and the joints
1 αT,βT 15kV, 1,000 kcmil themselves will age in service. Thus, the time in service is
@ ACLT (4,4) 100% XLPE wall, likely longer than estimated by this current modeling.
conditions from Jacketed Although it should be recognised that the segment is not
collated library 300 ft. (100 m) the same, after the repair, as the one that was installed.
Operated at 30 °C
Estimated service life – first failure:
B50 21 years B10 16 years
2 αT =260, βT =4 15kV, 1,000 kcmil
@ ACLT (4,4) 100% WTRXLPE wall,
conditions from Jacketed
user test data 300 ft. (100 m)
Operated at 30 °C
Estimated service life – first failure:
B50 35 years B10 26 years
3 αT,βT 35 kV, 1,000 kcmil
@ ACLT (4,3) 100% WTRXLPE wall
conditions from insulation, Jacketed
collated library 2,000 ft. (610 m)
operated at 60 °C
Estimated service life – first failure:
B50 7 years B10 5 years
Figure 8. Case 1 Weibull curves (adjusted scale and
4 αT,βT 15 kV, 350 kcmil
shape parameter) for life expansion factors. Curves
@ ACLT (4,3) Reduced wall (83%)
move right (longer life) as expansion factors applied.
conditions from EPR, Jacketed
collated library 300 ft. (100 m)
Operated at 75 °C
Estimated service life – first failure:
B50 4 years B10 3 years
5 αT=1019, βT=2 15 kV, 350 kcmil
@ ACLT (4,4) 100% EPR wall,
conditions from Jacketed
user test data 300 ft. (100 m)
Operated at 75 °C
Estimated service life – first failure:
B50 18 years B10 11 years

The first case study starts with ACLT test results for a
standard ACLT cable configuration at (4,4) test condition.
The interest is in using the composite ACLT core
experience to estimate the service life, for first failure, of a Figure 9. Case 1 Weibull curves (adjusted scale and
15 kV, 1,000 kcmil, 100% XLPE insulated jacketed cable shape parameter) for life reduction factors. Curves
operated at (1,1) condition with a service length of 300 ft. move left (shorter life) as reduction factors applied.
(experience shows that this is a typical length of cable
Thus the Life Statement from this case would be; ”10% of
between transformers in a residential sub division).
300 ft cable segments (15kV 1000kcmil jacketed XLPE
Weibull curves were generated based on the adjusted 100% wall) would be anticipated to experience their first
scale parameter and shape parameter and were displayed failure in service (operating at 30 °C) on or before age 16
separately by the expansion factors (Figure 8) and the years”.
reduction factors (Figure 9). The survival curve for the
service cable was also plotted in Figure 10. It shows that if

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B6-2 10th International Conference on Insulated Power Cables B6-2

OTHER MODEL APPLICATIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The challenge of running an ACLT test is the unpredictable The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the
end of test time. As cable technology improves, cable NEETRAC Members in developing and publishing these
samples require a longer time to fail which increases the findings.
economic burden of conducting such tests. This model
performs a backward calculation to estimate how long the REFERENCES
test needs to run if no failures were observed for a specific
life requirement. As an example, if a service life of 40 years [1] IEEE Guide for Accelerated Aging Tests for Mdeium-
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reverse calculation would help to answer how long the Using Water-Filled Tanks, IEEE Standard 1407,
ACLT test should run if no failures are observed. If, by way 2007.J. Smith, “Tree-Retardant Crosslinked
of an example, a 15kV 100% wall WTRXLPE 1000kcmil (TRXLPE) Reduced Insulation Wall Accelerated Cable
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