Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore

Predictors of financial sustainability for cryptocurrencies: An empirical

study using a hybrid SEM-ANN approach
Ibrahim Arpaci *
Department of Software Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University, Balikesir, Turkiye

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Cryptocurrencies stand as a significant financial innovation, poised to transform traditional financial systems by
Financial sustainability facilitating faster, cost-efficient, and inclusive value transfers. Understanding their sustainability is essential in
Cryptocurrencies comprehending their potential to reshape established financial frameworks. Hence, this study aimed to identify
Regulation
the factors predicting the financial sustainability of cryptocurrencies. The study proposed a model based on the
Price volatility
“Expectation Confirmation Theory” (ECT) and tested the model using a multi-analytical approach by combining
“Structural Equation Modeling” (SEM) and “Artificial Neural Network” (ANN). The sample of the study included
1649 participants, ranging in age from 17 to 70. Results indicated that perceived risk, regulation, price volatility,
innovativeness, and confirmation of expectations significantly predicted perceived usefulness, which in turn
significantly predicted satisfaction with cryptocurrencies. The findings highlighted that users' degree of confir­
mation of expectations significantly influenced their satisfaction with and perceived usefulness of crypto­
currencies. The specified paths within the model accounted for 61 % and 74 % of the variance in perceived
usefulness and financial sustainability, respectively. In comparison to the results obtained through SEM analysis,
the deep ANN multi-layer perceptron displayed superior performance in predicting perceived usefulness. This
was evident from its enhanced predictive accuracy, achieving averages of 87.34 % for training and 87.76 % for
testing.

1. Introduction cannot be changed on the blockchain after it has been recorded without
network consensus (Niranjanamurthy et al., 2019). Moreover, trans­
Cryptocurrencies offer “an electronic payment system based on actions on a blockchain are transparent, meaning that they can be
cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to viewed by anyone with access to the network and this can increase
transact directly without needing a trusted third party” (Nakamoto, accountability by reducing the risk of fraud or corruption (Chen et al.,
2008). Virtual or digital currencies that operate without a central bank 2018).
and employ cryptography for security are known as cryptocurrencies Even though cryptocurrencies have grown in popularity recently,
(Underwood, 2016). They are not under the control of one particular adoption is still limited compared to traditional currencies. The share of
organization, like a financial institution or government (Berg et al., cryptocurrencies in online payment transactions and the number of
2019). users is well below their alternatives such as digital wallets, and credit or
Cryptocurrencies can run on an infrastructure that is provided by debit cards. According to (Statista, 2023) global user penetration is
blockchain, a distributed ledger technology, that enables the safe and projected to be 3.8 % in 2023 and 4.4 % in 2027.
transparent recording of transactions (Allen et al., 2020). Blockchain Cryptocurrencies are relatively new and complex technologies, and
technology is decentralized, which implies that it runs on a computer there are challenges to be addressed in terms of interoperability, regu­
network rather than a centralized single authority (Fry and Serbera, lation, and scalability for them to reach their full potential (Arpaci and
2020). This allows for greater transparency and security since no single Bahari, 2023a). Many businesses and financial institutions are still
point of failure or control exists (Kshetri, 2021). Further, transactions on hesitant to accept cryptocurrencies, and government regulation can vary
a blockchain are secured through cryptography, which makes them greatly from country to country (Bhimani et al., 2022). For example,
difficult to tamper with or manipulate (Sun et al., 2016). A transaction Turkey, Brazil, and India are among the countries in which

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected].

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122858
Received 23 March 2023; Received in revised form 25 August 2023; Accepted 10 September 2023
Available online 16 September 2023
0040-1625/© 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

cryptocurrencies are not specifically regulated. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and 2. Theoretical background
China are the countries with absolute bans on cryptocurrencies.
Whereas, the European Union, the US, Japan, the UK, and Canada are 2.1. Research model
countries that recognize cryptocurrencies as a means of payment
(Bezovski et al., 2021). The “Expectation-Confirmation Theory” (ECT) is a social psychology
Blockchain technology is often associated with cryptocurrencies but theory that explains how individuals form and maintain their attitudes
has many other potential applications beyond cryptocurrencies. These and behaviors toward a particular product, service, or experience
applications include crowdfunding, decentralized notary, identity veri­ (Bhattacherjee, 2001). The theory suggests that individuals evaluate
fication, digital assets, voting, supply chain management, insurance, etc. their satisfaction with a service or product based on a comparison be­
(Zı̄le and Strazdiņa, 2018). Smart contracts are automated contracts that tween their initial expectations and experiences (Al-Emran et al., 2020).
are executed by the terms of the agreement written in code that can be According to ECT, individuals have pre-consumption expectations about
created on some blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum, without the a service or product depending on the information obtained from
need for an intermediary agent (Swan, 2015). various sources, such as advertising, personal recommendations, or
While cryptocurrencies have the potential to disrupt traditional previous experiences (Bhattacherjee, 2001). If the post-consumption
financial systems, their long-term financial sustainability is still uncer­ experience meets or exceeds their expectations, individuals are likely
tain and subject to ongoing debate and analysis (Beck, 2018). Market to experience confirmation, which leads to positive attitudes toward the
demand, which may be affected by factors like regulation, is what pri­ product or service and a likelihood of repeated use or purchase. If the
marily determines the value of cryptocurrencies (Bezovski et al., 2021). post-consumption experience falls short of their expectations, in­
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not a part of the established dividuals may experience disappointment or dissatisfaction, which leads
monetary system and this negatively affects cryptocurrency market to a negative attitude toward the service or product and a decreased
growth (Shahzad et al., 2018). Further, some cryptocurrencies, such as likelihood of repeated use or purchase (Bhattacherjee, 2001).
Bitcoin, require significant amounts of energy to process transactions ECT is employed in many different contexts, such as hospitality
and maintain their blockchain networks (Zhao et al., 2016). The energy services, e-learning, and mobile services (Hu et al., 2022; Loh et al.,
consumption associated with these cryptocurrencies has raised concerns 2022; Oh et al., 2022). The theory suggests that cryptocurrency ex­
about their environmental impacts and long-term financial sustainabil­ changes can improve customer satisfaction and loyalty by managing
ity (Chang et al., 2020). Thereby, China declared all cryptocurrency customer expectations effectively, delivering consistent and high-
transactions illegal and issued bans on cryptocurrency mining in 2021 quality experiences, and addressing any gaps between expectations
(Cherian, 2022). and actual experiences (Ghaisani et al., 2022). Overall, the ECT provides
Overall, cryptocurrencies have the potential to offer many benefits, insights into how individuals form and maintain their attitudes and
such as increased privacy, security, and transparency (Sun et al., 2016). behaviors toward cryptocurrencies and highlights the importance of
Cryptocurrencies are secured through cryptography, which makes them managing customer expectations to improve customer satisfaction and
difficult to counterfeit or manipulate. Transactions are recorded on a loyalty.
public ledger, called a blockchain, which makes them transparent and The recent discourse surrounding cryptocurrencies underscores their
difficult to alter (Qiao et al., 2018). However, they also come with distinctive attributes compared to traditional financial assets (Naeem
challenges and risks, such as volatility, energy consumption, and regu­ et al., 2022). These unique characteristics encompass factors such as
lation (Quamara and Singh, 2022). Notably, none of the prior studies volatility levels exceeding those of conventional assets by a factor of ten
have delved into the sustainability of cryptocurrencies by specifically (Bariviera and Merediz-Solà, 2021), a notable susceptibility to manip­
examining the interplay between their advantages and challenges. This ulation (Gandal et al., 2018), ongoing trading activities coupled with
study seeks to fill that gap by investigating the pivotal factors that trading anonymity (Yue et al., 2021), investments characterized by
predict the financial sustainability of cryptocurrencies. speculative tendencies (Urquhart, 2018), and the simultaneous chal­
Cryptocurrencies encompass virtual or digital currencies that employ lenge of grappling with a trilemma involving cybercriminal activity,
cryptographic techniques for security and function within decentralized regulatory ambiguity, and the potential emergence of inherent price
networks facilitated by blockchain technology (Yuan and Wang, 2018). bubbles (Corbet et al., 2019). Accordingly, this study has extended the
They represent a noteworthy advancement within the financial domain, ECT by incorporating supplementary factors specifically relevant to
possessing the capability to revolutionize conventional financial struc­ cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies operate on digital platforms,
tures through expedited, cost-effective, and inclusive mechanisms for thereby carrying inherent risks such as cybersecurity vulnerabilities and
value transfer and transaction facilitation (Swan, 2015). Understanding information security risks (Al-Amri et al., 2019). Consequently, the
their sustainability is essential in comprehending their potential to perceived risk factor becomes a pivotal consideration in the adoption of
reshape established financial frameworks. Therefore, this study de­ cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, regulatory endorsements have the po­
velops a novel theoretical framework by enhancing a well-established tential to bolster customers' confidence in cryptocurrencies (Albayati
theory to better explain the factors affecting financial sustainability. et al., 2020). Given the renowned price volatility of cryptocurrencies,
This study can contribute by providing a deeper insight into the factors characterized by swift and occasionally unpredictable fluctuations in
that influence the financial sustainability of cryptocurrencies. Identi­ their values (Naeem et al., 2022), this aspect emerges as a notable
fying predictors of financial sustainability could help in understanding determinant in explaining the perceived usefulness of these digital as­
and mitigating risks associated with cryptocurrencies, which could be of sets. In the realm of cutting-edge technology, cryptocurrencies represent
immense value to investors, regulators, and individuals interested in the a novel and remarkably innovative domain. Consequently, individual
cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, the use of a hybrid CB-SEM and predisposition toward embracing innovation, termed personal innova­
ANN approach can offer a significant contribution by merging the tiveness, likely plays a pivotal role in shaping an individual's adoption of
strengths of both techniques. The hybrid approach can enable cross- cryptocurrencies (Bennani and Arpaci, 2021). Taking into consideration
validation of results obtained from both approaches, enhancing the the aforementioned reasoning, the depicted research model for this
robustness of findings. study is illustrated in Fig. 1.

2.2. Hypotheses development

2.2.1. Satisfaction
The ECT suggests that consumer post-purchase behaviors are shaped

2
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Fig. 1. Research model.

by the satisfaction gained from previous engagements with the brand, 2.2.3. Perceived usefulness
product, or service (Bhattacherjee, 2001). In the realm of online shop­ Perceived usefulness is defined as “the degree to which a person
ping, a study conducted by (Tata et al., 2021) highlights the substantial believes that the use of cryptocurrencies in e-commerce will improve his
impact of factors such as service quality, price transparency, and the or her performance” (Mendoza-Tello et al., 2019, p. 203). A crypto­
sincerity of firms on shoppers' satisfaction. This satisfaction, in turn, currency's perceived usefulness can vary significantly depending on its
maintains a positive correlation to repurchase. In a separate study, benefits. For example, cryptocurrencies function on decentralized net­
Ghaisani et al. (2022) explored predictors of the continued intention to works, indicating that they are devoid of control from a central entity
use cryptocurrency mobile wallets. Their results revealed that the level such as a financial institution or government (Ragnedda and Destefanis,
of satisfaction was a significant predictor of the users' continuance 2019). The central authority that was once trusted is replaced by cryp­
intention (Ghaisani et al., 2022). Likewise, prior findings indicated that tographic proof or “Proof of Work” in cryptocurrencies (Sukumaran
satisfaction was positively correlated with the intention to repurchase et al., 2022). Furthermore, thanks to using blockchain technology,
Bitcoin (Nadeem et al., 2020). The level of satisfaction with crypto­ cryptocurrencies offer greater anonymity, reduced transaction costs,
currency use initially among users can vary depending on their experi­ and transparent and swift transactions (Corbet et al., 2019; Hameed,
ences and expectations. Some users may find that cryptocurrencies meet 2019). Users' satisfaction with cryptocurrencies would be strongly
their needs and provide a positive experience, while others may be correlated with their perception of usefulness. Accordingly;
dissatisfied for various reasons. The degree to which users are satisfied
H4. Perceived usefulness is positively and significantly related to
with their initial cryptocurrency use may have an impact on the finan­
satisfaction with cryptocurrencies.
cial sustainability of cryptocurrencies. Therefore;
H1. The degree of initial user satisfaction is positively and significantly 2.2.4. Perceived risk
associated with the financial sustainability of cryptocurrencies. Perceived risk can be defined as “consumers' perception of the degree
of uncertainty and possibly undesirable consequences of using or buying
2.2.2. Confirmation of expectations a product from a behavioral research perspective” (Faqih, 2016, p. 18).
The ECT posits a positive correlation between expectation confir­ The perceived risk of cryptocurrencies was associated with trust,
mation and satisfaction (Bhattacherjee, 2001). Consequently, when a awareness, and perceived privacy (Anser et al., 2020; Gil-Cordero et al.,
user's expectations are affirmed through product usage, a feeling of 2020). In a recent study, the variables influencing people's acceptance of
satisfaction arises, ultimately enhancing their perception of the tech­ cryptocurrencies for financial transaction in high-risk situations were
nology's usefulness. Previous research supports this proposition, illus­ examined (Dabbous et al., 2022). The results showed that social influ­
trating a noteworthy link among expectation confirmation, satisfaction, ence and awareness significantly lower perceived risk while increasing
and the perceived usefulness of diverse products and services, including people's willingness to use cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies operate
chatbots (Dhiman and Jamwal, 2023), health applications (Chiu et al., on digital platforms, and therefore, there are inherent risks involved
2021), and mobile Internet users (Jumaan et al., 2020). Depending on such as cybersecurity risks, information security risks, operational risks,
users' experiences, beliefs, and needs, the degree of confirmation of platform risks, and liquidity risks (Al-Amri et al., 2019). Instances of
expectations can vary significantly (Bhattacherjee, 2001). Prior research fraudulent activities and the notable inherent volatility of crypto­
suggested that the degree to which users' expectations are confirmed currencies highlight that investing in these digital assets carries signif­
significantly affects their satisfaction with and perceived usefulness of icantly elevated risk when contrasted with traditional stock market
mobile applications (Sarkar and Khare, 2019). Additionally, it was investments (Kerr et al., 2023). The potential risks can result in the loss
discovered that perceived usefulness of and satisfaction with Internet of funds, theft of digital assets, or sensitive information. Consequently,
banking were significantly influenced by the degree of expectation the perception of cryptocurrencies' risks may be detrimental to their
confirmation (Rahi et al., 2021). Therefore; perceived usefulness. Accordingly;
H2. The level of expectation confirmation is positively and signifi­ H5. Perceived risk is negatively and significantly associated with the
cantly linked to satisfaction with cryptocurrencies. perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies.
H3. The level of expectation confirmation is positively and signifi­
2.2.5. Regulation
cantly linked to satisfaction with the perceived usefulness of
Regulations around cryptocurrencies vary by country and jurisdic­
cryptocurrencies.
tion, as they are a relatively new and rapidly evolving asset class (Yeoh,
2017). For example, the US, Japan, the EU, the UK, and Canada have

3
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

regulations that apply to cryptocurrencies (Bezovski et al., 2021). The 3. Research methodology
Chinese cryptocurrency market underwent a significant transformation
after a recent regulatory alteration imposed by Chinese authorities, 3.1. Sample and procedure
which imposed strict limitations on Bitcoin trading (Griffith and
Clancey-Shang, 2023). However, cryptocurrencies are not regulated in As of 2023, the global count of crypto users is estimated to be around
the same countries such as Turkey, Brazil, and India, which can leave 420 million (TripleA, 2023). Utilizing Yamane's formula, a necessary
investors and users vulnerable to scams and fraud. Alterations in do­ sample size of 400 was computed to achieve population representation
mestic regulations not only exert a substantial influence on the domestic at a confidence level of 95 % (Yamane, 1973). A total of 1649 people
cryptocurrency market but also generate considerable cross-border ef­ (mean age = 24.08, SD = 8.49, range = 17–70) participated in this
fects (Borri and Shakhnov, 2020). A recent study revealed that regula­ study. The majority of the participants were undergraduates (66.7 %),
tory support may increase consumers' trust in blockchain-based services 20.1 % were graduates, 5 % were college graduates, 5.7 % were high-
(Albayati et al., 2020). Clear and reasonable regulation can increase school graduates or less, and 2.5 % were MSc or Ph.D. graduates.
users' trust in cryptocurrencies, which in turn can positively influence Males made up 51.2 % of the participants (844 male and 805 female)
the perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies. Therefore; and 18 % of them were married. 40.3 % of the participants declared that
they have traded or invested in cryptocurrencies.
H6. Regulation is positively and significantly associated with the
The study data were gathered using Google Forms between
perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies.
December 2022 and January 2023. The purposes of the research were
first explained to the participants who agreed to voluntarily participate
2.2.6. Price volatility
in the study before they voluntarily gave their consent by signing the
Cryptocurrencies are recognized for their price volatility, with their
informed consent form. Before gathering data, the research was given
values fluctuating rapidly and sometimes unpredictably (Naeem et al.,
IRB approval to make sure it complied with ethical standards. All par­
2022). Speculation, high demand, limited supply, and positive or
ticipants were made aware that their information would solely be uti­
negative news can lead to sudden price fluctuations and severe volatility
lized for research purposes.
since cryptocurrencies are not a liability of central banks (Cherian,
2022). Lack of trust in their scalability and security makes them less
3.2. Instruments
desirable as a store of value or means of payment (Kumar and Anan­
darao, 2019). But corporate and individual users want to use crypto­
A five-point Likert-type scale with the values “1 = strongly disagree”
currencies as a payment method (Mazambani and Mutambara, 2019).
to “5 = strongly agree” is used to rate the scale having eight factors and
Further, the cryptocurrency market is largely unregulated, which can
28 items. The items measuring financial sustainability were adapted
contribute to volatility (S Kumar and Ajaz, 2019). The absence of
from (Arpaci et al., 2022). The items on the scale used to measure
adequate checks and balances to thwart market manipulation or fraud
confirmation of expectations and satisfaction were adapted from
can result in abrupt price fluctuations. Such volatility can significantly
(Bhattacherjee, 2001). The items on the scale used to measure perceived
impact strategic investment choices and, ultimately, influence the
usefulness were adapted from (Arpaci, 2017). The items on the scale
perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies. Accordingly;
used to measure innovativeness were adapted from (Arpaci, 2018). The
H7. Price volatility is significantly associated with the perceived use­ scale items measuring perceived risk were adapted from a recent study
fulness of cryptocurrencies. (Arpaci and Sevinc, 2022).
The scale items measuring regulation and price volatility were
2.2.7. Innovativeness developed and validated in the study. Three experts evaluated the
Innovativeness was characterized as “the degree to which an indi­ generated items' content validity (see Appendix for the scale items). Six
vidual is relatively early in adopting new ideas than the other members of the 12 initial questions for the two constructs were eliminated after
of a system” (Rogers, 2010, p. 22). Cryptocurrencies are a brand-new, determining the “content validity ratio” and “content validity index”
incredibly innovative technology with the potential to completely with values >0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis
change the financial sector (Beck et al., 2018). The previous findings with a varimax rotation indicated that the factor loadings for regulation
indicated that the intention to use cryptocurrencies is significantly range from 0.858 to 0.882 and three items account for 75.41 % of the
influenced by innovativeness and technological readiness (Sohaib et al., total variance. Further, the factor loadings for price volatility ranged
2019). In the same vein, it was argued that personal innovativeness may from 0.809 to 0.847 and three items accounted for 68.71 % of the total
have a positive effect on individual adoption of cryptocurrencies (Ben­ variance.
nani and Arpaci, 2021). A recent study examined how learning moti­
vation and individual propensity for innovation impact students' 4. Results
intention to engage in entrepreneurship (Aboobaker et al., 2023). The
outcomes of their investigation indicated that both learning motivation 4.1. Common method bias
and personal innovativeness exerted a significant indirect influence on
students' entrepreneurship intention, which was mediated by the As self-reported data were employed during data collection, poten­
concept of human capital. Concurrently, a separate investigation by tial biases like social desirability or common-method biases could be
(Upadhyay et al., 2023) explored the predisposition of family businesses present. Thus, to address this concern, Harman's one-factor test was
to adopt artificial intelligence (AI). Their findings unveiled that inno­ executed on the constructs incorporated in the theoretical model (Pod­
vativeness partially mediates the connections between factors such as sakoff and Organ, 1986). Employing “principal component analysis”
culture and adaptable design, as well as entrepreneurial and technology with varimax rotation, it was determined that the initial factor
orientations, to adopt AI technology. Accordingly, accounted for 27.47 % of the overall variance, out of 59.99 %. This
analysis demonstrated that the study was not significantly affected by
H8. Innovativeness is positively and significantly associated with the
common-method bias.
perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies.

4.2. Reliability, factorability, and normality

Bartlett's “test of sphericity” was statistically significant (x2 (378) =

25,366.521) and Kaiser's “measure of sampling adequacy” was 0.962.

4
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

These findings suggested that factor analysis can be performed on the SEM tends to demand a larger sample size than PLS-SEM, particularly for
data. Table 1 includes parameter estimates as well as the normality test models encompassing numerous parameters. Given that the study is
results (Skewness SE = 0.060 and Kurtosis SE = 0.120). The findings of built upon a well-established theoretical framework (i.e., ECT), which
the normality test revealed that the study data were normally distrib­ encompasses a multitude of interrelated constructs, and with the
uted. Further, reliability tests proved that each dimension has adequate availability of a sizable sample size, CB-SEM emerges as the preferable
internal consistency (Hair et al., 2022). option. The proposed hypotheses were tested using SPSS AMOS (ver.
26). The results presented in Table 4 indicated that the degree of initial
4.3. Convergent and discriminant validity user satisfaction was positively correlated with the financial sustain­
ability of cryptocurrencies (β = 0.863, t = 24.034, p < .001). Users' level
The items were reliable for measuring each construct, as evidenced of confirmation of expectations was positively correlated with their
by the composite reliability (CR) range of 0.710 to 0.875. Additionally, satisfaction (β = 0.706, t = 23.411, p < .001) and perceived usefulness
the “average variance extracted” (AVE) was below the threshold except (β = 0.550, t = 18.977, p < .001). Users' perceived usefulness was
for perceived risk. It was asserted that convergent validity can be positively correlated with their satisfaction with cryptocurrencies (β =
granted for any factor with an AVE below the threshold value of 0.50 if 0.352, t = 13.664, p < .001). Further, regulation (β = 0.345, t = 13.163,
its composite reliability is >0.70 (Fornell and Larcker, 1981). p < .001), price volatility (β = 0.153, t = 6.08, p < .001), and innova­
Heterotrait-Monotrait Ratio (HTMT) proposed by (Henseler et al., tiveness (β = 0.211, t = 8.707, p < .001) were positively correlated with
2015) was used to assess discriminant validity. Discriminant validity is the perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies. Whereas, perceived risk
confirmed between two reflective constructs if the HTMT value falls was negatively correlated with the perceived usefulness of crypto­
below 0.90 (Henseler et al., 2015). The results presented in Table 2 currencies (β = − 0.353, t = − 11.891, p < .001). Thus, all proposed
demonstrate that adequate discriminant validity has been established hypotheses were supported.
among these variables. The CB-SEM results shown in Fig. 2 revealed that the proposed
variables explained substantial variance in financial sustainability (R2 =
0.74). Furthermore, 90 % of the variance in satisfaction was accounted
4.4. Measurement model
for by confirmation of expectations and perceived usefulness. Finally,
perceived risk, regulation, price volatility, innovativeness, and confir­
Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics were employed to evaluate the
mation of expectations together explained 61 % of the variance in
alignment of the measurement model with the data, as depicted in
perceived usefulness.
Table 3. With 271 “degrees of freedom” (DF), the “chi-square statistic” of
815.187 was significant (p < .001). The measurement model appears to
4.6. Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
fit the data reasonably well according to several goodness-of-fit indices:
[x2/DF = 3.008, CFI = 0.977, NFI = 0.965, TLI = 0.972, IFI = 0.977,
ANNs are utilized in addition to SEM for capturing nonlinear re­
RMSEA = 0.035 (LO90 = 0.032, HI90 = 0.038), SRMR = 0.0303].
lationships in data (Arpaci and Bahari, 2023b). SEM is more appropriate
for modeling causal relationships between observed and latent variables
4.5. Hypothesis testing in a structured context (Ashaari et al., 2021). Whereas if the relation­
ships between variables are complex and nonlinear, ANNs can provide a
When a research model involves multiple latent variables and intri­ more accurate representation of these relationships compared to SEM
cate relationships, opting for “Covariance-Based - Structural Equation (Abbasi et al., 2023). To avoid the overfitting problem, a 10-fold cross-
Modeling” (CB-SEM) can lead to more robust outcomes. Moreover, CB- validation technique was employed in the ANN models (Kalinić et al.,
2021). This involved utilizing 90 % of the data for the training phase and
Table 1 reserving the remaining 10 % for the testing phase. The research model
Results on reliability and normality. was partitioned into three distinct ANN models and put under the
Factors Items Mean S.D. Skewness Kurtosis scrutiny of an ANN multi-layer perceptron network. The sigmoid func­
tion was opted for as the activation function in both the hidden and
Financial sustainability FS1 2.68 1.164 0.208 − 0.598
(Cronbach's α = 0.787) FS2 2.69 1.148 0.156 − 0.667 output layers, enabling the ANN model to exhibit nonlinearity.
FS3 2.55 1.145 0.281 − 0.611 Model 1 featured a total of five exogenous constructs, as illustrated in
Satisfaction (Cronbach's α = S1 2.80 1.215 0.080 − 0.860 Fig. 3: Perceived Risk (PR), Regulation (R), Price Volatility (PV), Inno­
0.813) S2 2.87 1.247 − 0.017 − 0.939 vativeness (I), and Confirmation of Expectations (C). The input layers
S3 2.71 1.258 0.127 0.958
consisted of five continuous variables, while the output layer was
−
Confirmation of expectations C1 2.72 1.245 0.121 − 0.928
(Cronbach's α = 0.840) C2 2.76 1.212 0.125 − 0.834 defined by the categorical endogenous variable (PU).
C3 2.72 1.236 0.133 − 0.916 The “root mean square error” (RMSE) for ten networks was calcu­
Perceived usefulness PU1 3.06 1.278 − 0.152 − 0.957 lated to assess the accuracy of the prediction produced by the ANN
(Cronbach's α = 0.862) PU2 3.07 1.280 − 0.118 0.983
−
model. RMSE values shown in Table 5 for model 1 vary between 0.307
PU3 2.98 1.248 − 0.039 − 0.909
PU4 2.98 1.247 − 0.044 − 0.903 and 0.322 for training and between 0.272 and 0.347 for testing. The
Perceived risk (Cronbach's α = PR1 3,37 1,270 − ,223 − ,964 deep ANN multi-layer perceptron, functioning as a supervised non-
0.711) PR2 2,88 1,260 ,091 − ,908 linear classification algorithm, achieved an average accuracy of 87.34
PR3 3,36 1,199 − ,228 − ,744 % for training and 87.76 % for testing in predicting perceived
PR4 3,00 1,215 − ,003 ,792
usefulness.
−
Regulation (Cronbach's α = PT1 3.17 1.281 − 0.154 − 0.948
0.837) PT2 3.23 1.272 − 0.202 − 0.927 In ANN model 2, perceived usefulness and confirmation were
PT3 3.17 1.265 − 0.144 − 0.904 employed as input layers, while satisfaction was designated as the
Price volatility (Cronbach's α PV1 3.22 1.243 − 0.236 − 0.824 output layer. Table 6 presents the RMSE outcomes, spanning from 0.399
= 0.772) PV2 3.12 1.240 − 0.146 0.844
−
to 0.416 for training and 0.382 to 0.444 for testing. Remarkably, the
PV3 3.00 1.189 − 0.035 − 0.739
Innovativeness (Cronbach's α I1 3.48 1.258 − 0.474 − 0.738 deep multi-layer perceptron of the ANN achieved a noteworthy average
= 0.875) I2 3.53 1.262 − 0.520 − 0.703 accuracy of 79.04 % during training and an accuracy of 77.13 % during
I3 3.39 1.209 − 0.382 − 0.704 testing when forecasting satisfaction.
I4 3.57 1.252 − 0.527 − 0.673 In ANN model 3, satisfaction was employed as the input layer, while
I5 3.75 1.268 − 0.715 0.528
financial sustainability was assigned as the output layer. In Table 7, the
−

5
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Table 2
HTMT results.
Construct CR AVE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1. Financial sustainability 0.792 0.560

2. Satisfaction 0.789 0.651 0.868
3. Confirmation 0.840 0.637 0.838 0.894
4. Perceived usefulness 0.863 0.611 0.761 0.838 0.789
5. Perceived risk 0.710 0.450 0.764 0.788 0.799 0.776
6. Regulation 0.837 0.632 0.523 0.575 0.546 0.714 0.591
7. Price volatility 0.771 0.531 0.486 0.509 0.498 0.661 0.546 0.845
8. Innovativeness 0.875 0.584 0.328 0.411 0.341 0.524 0.371 0.574 0.603

This study employs sensitivity analysis to compute normalized impor­

Table 3
tance as a percentage, which allows an examination of the contribution
Model fit measures.
of each predictor. Table 8 displays the results derived from the studies
Measure Estimate Thresholds Interpretation conducted utilizing the ANN models via sensitivity analysis. The out­
CMIN 815.187 – – comes of the initial ANN model emphasize that among the input vari­
DF 271 – – ables, confirmation of expectations (C) exhibits the strongest predictive
CMIN/DF 3.008 Between 1 and 3 Acceptable capability for perceived usefulness (PU), followed sequentially by
CFI 0.977 >0.95 Excellent
RMSEA 0.035 <0.06 Excellent
regulation (R), perceived risk (PR), price volatility (PV), and innovation
PClose 1.000 >0.05 Excellent (I). Likewise, in the second ANN model, confirmation of expectations (C)
emerges as the input with the highest predictive power for satisfaction.

RMSE results are shown, covering a range from 0.473 to 0.482 for 5. Discussion and conclusions
training and 0.463 to 0.490 for testing. The deep ANN multi-layer per­
ceptron achieved a remarkable average accuracy of 65.81 % during 5.1. Theoretical contributions
training, and an accuracy of 64.92 % during testing when predicting
financial sustainability. This study investigated factors predicting the financial sustainability
of cryptocurrencies. In the study, a model based on expectation-
4.7. Sensitivity analysis confirmation theory was presented and evaluated using a multi-
analytical approach by combining CB-SEM and ANN approaches.
Based on variations in the linked exogenous constructs, the model's Using such a multi-analytical approach enables us to identify both linear
sensitivity analysis discloses disparities in the endogenous constructs. and nonlinear relationships among the constructs. One of the

Table 4
The CB-SEM results.
# Path β S.E. t Results

[H1] Satisfaction → Financial sustainability 0.863 0.034 24.034*** Supported

[H2] Confirmation → Satisfaction 0.706 0.025 23.411*** Supported
[H3] Confirmation → Perceived usefulness 0.550 0.022 18.977*** Supported
[H4] Perceived Usefulness → Satisfaction 0.352 0.028 13.664*** Supported
[H5] Perceived Risk → Perceived usefulness − 0.353 0.025 − 11.891*** Supported
[H6] Regulation → Perceived usefulness 0.345 0.020 13.163*** Supported
[H7] Price Volatility → Perceived usefulness 0.153 0.021 6.080*** Supported
[H8] Innovativeness → Perceived usefulness 0.211 0.020 8.707*** Supported
***
p < .001.

Fig. 2. The CB-SEM results.

6
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Fig. 3. ANN model 1.

Table 5
RMSE values of the ANN model 1.
Network N (Training) N (Testing) RMSE (Training) RMSE (Testing) Prediction accuracy (Training) Prediction accuracy (Testing)

1 1475 174 0.314 0.281 87.70 90.20

2 1480 169 0.312 0.287 87.60 88.2
3 1487 162 0.318 0.314 87.20 87.7
4 1475 174 0.310 0.327 87.50 85.6
5 1482 167 0.307 0.321 87.90 88.60
6 1471 178 0.310 0.347 88.10 84.80
7 1501 148 0.314 0.326 87.30 87.20
8 1486 163 0.313 0.308 86.70 89.00
9 1479 170 0.318 0.272 87.00 90.60
10 1474 175 0.322 0.343 86.40 85.70
Mean 0.314 0.313 87.34 87.76
SD 0.005 0.026 0.532 1.956

contributions of the study was to develop and validate the scale items perceptions of usefulness and the confirmation of expectations have a
used to measure regulation and price volatility. direct impact on satisfaction. Consistent with this, the results indicated a
The study hypothesized the degree of user satisfaction with crypto­ positive correlation between users' satisfaction with cryptocurrencies
currencies significantly affects the financial sustainability of crypto­ and their perceived usefulness. Further, users' extent of confirmation of
currencies. The findings showed that initial user satisfaction levels were expectations was significantly and positively associated with their
positively associated with the financial sustainability of cryptocurren­ satisfaction and perceived usefulness. In a similar vein, recent research
cies. According to the “Expectation Confirmation Theory” (ECT), delved into the domain of continuous usage intentions about chatbots

7
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Table 6
RMSE values of the ANN model 2.
Network N (Training) N (Testing) RMSE (Training) RMSE (Testing) Prediction accuracy (Training) Prediction accuracy (Testing)

1 1461 188 0.404 0.382 78.400 80.30

2 1462 187 0.399 0.400 79.100 78.1
3 1490 159 0.416 0.426 79.30 76.1
4 1475 174 0.402 0.387 78.80 80.5
5 1487 162 0.400 0.391 79.10 79.00
6 1477 172 0.401 0.432 79.60 75.00
7 1474 175 0.403 0.444 79.20 73.10
8 1482 167 0.400 0.408 78.70 76.60
9 1494 155 0.400 0.437 79.30 74.80
10 1469 180 0.399 0.422 78.90 77.80
Mean 0.402 0.413 79.04 77.13
SD 0.005 0.022 0.347 2.446

Table 7
RMSE values of the ANN model 3.
Network N (Training) N (Testing) RMSE (Training) RMSE (Testing) Prediction accuracy (Training) Prediction accuracy (Testing)

1 1487 162 0.473 0.483 65.70 63.60

2 1475 174 0.475 0.463 66.00 66.1
3 1482 167 0.477 0.490 66.50 62.3
4 1471 178 0.480 0.470 65.30 67.4
5 1501 148 0.475 0.468 66.00 66.90
6 1486 163 0.478 0.487 65.40 66.90
7 1479 170 0.475 0.474 65.40 66.50
8 1474 175 0.474 0.486 66.10 65.70
9 1476 173 0.477 0.487 66.30 63.60
10 1478 171 0.482 0.488 65.40 60.20
Mean 0.477 0.479 65.81 64.92
SD 0.003 0.009 0.428 2.383

risks and to take steps to mitigate them, such as using reputable plat­
Table 8
forms, maintaining strong security practices, and staying up-to-date on
Sensitivity analysis for the ANN models.
regulatory developments. Supporting this, Li et al. (2020) directed their
Mean Normalized Ranking attention toward the security vulnerabilities of blockchain technology,
importance importance (%)
examining well-known blockchain systems such as Bitcoin, Ethereum,
Model Confirmation 0.475 100.0 % 1 and Monero. They contend that among various risks, the prominence of
1 Regulation 0.161 33.9 % 2
privacy leakage stands out as a notable concern.
Perceived Risk 0.140 29.6 % 3
Price Volatility 0.141 29.7 % 4 The study hypothesized that price volatility and regulation are
Innovation 0.083 17.4 % 5 significantly associated with users' perceived usefulness of crypto­
Model Confirmation 0.601 100 % 1 currencies. The results showed that regulation was positively associated
2 Perceived 0.399 66.5 % 2 with the perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies that
Usefulness
are compliant with existing financial regulations are more likely to be
Model Satisfaction 1 %100 1
3 accepted by mainstream financial institutions and investors, which can
enhance their perceived usefulness (Janssen et al., 2020). Further, the
results showed that price volatility was significantly correlated with the
(Dhiman and Jamwal, 2023). Through the lens of ECT, their study perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies. This suggests that price vola­
revealed that customer satisfaction with AI-powered chatbots emerged tility affects users' strategic investment decisions and makes it impos­
as a noteworthy antecedent to their continuance use. A separate study sible to use them as a payment method (Malika, 2021).
examined consumers' intention to continue using health and fitness It is argued that price volatility is frequently observed during periods
applications, employing the ECT framework (Chiu et al., 2021). Their encompassing two specific undesirable characteristics closely linked
findings revealed that the confirmation of consumers' expectations with cryptocurrencies: cybercrime activities and regulatory disorienta­
positively and significantly influences both perceived usefulness and tion (Corbet et al., 2019). This threefold challenge arises from the trio of
satisfaction. This, in turn, positive and significant impacts their contin­ interconnected problems that cryptocurrencies need to overcome.
uance intention to use these applications. Likewise, (Gandal et al., 2018) argued that unregulated cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrencies are based on blockchain technology, a decentral­ markets still possess susceptibility to manipulation. Furthermore, the
ized ledger that securely and openly records transactions, which can expansion of notable instances of cybercrime persistently erodes trust
increase the transparency and accountability of financial transactions and steadiness within the cryptocurrency market, yielding substantial
(de Andrés et al., 2022). However, despite their innovative potential, ramifications (Gandal et al., 2018).
cryptocurrencies still face significant security challenges. The results Finally, the results indicated that innovativeness was positively
revealed that perceived risk is negatively correlated with the perceived correlated with the perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies. This sug­
usefulness of cryptocurrencies. This suggests that perceived risks, gested that the level of personal innovativeness is significantly associ­
including platform and security risks associated with cryptocurrencies, ated with the perceived usefulness of cryptocurrencies that offer
have a significant negative impact on their perceived usefulness. These innovative and useful technology. Confirming this, recent research
risks can result in the theft of digital assets or sensitive personal infor­ investigated the relationships among innovativeness, industrial Internet
mation. Therefore, it holds significance for users to be aware of these of Things (IIoT), and blockchain technology, to predict the performance

8
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

of manufacturing supply chains (MSCP) (Rehman et al., 2023). Their 2019).

findings unveiled that innovativeness plays a mediating role in the
relationship between IIoT, blockchain technology, and MSCP. 5.3. Limitations and future work
The findings demonstrated that the suggested model has a potent
explanatory power for predicting the financial sustainability of crypto­ The result indicated that the financial sustainability of crypto­
currencies. The SEM results indicated that 74 % of the variation in currencies is affected by a range of factors, including satisfaction,
financial sustainability was explained by the paths defined by the confirmation of expectations, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, reg­
structural model. Furthermore, satisfaction and perceived usefulness ulatory compliance, price volatility, and innovativeness. The technology
explained 90 % of the variance in satisfaction. Finally, the combined underlying cryptocurrencies is constantly evolving, and new de­
impact of perceived risk, regulation, price volatility, innovativeness, and velopments can impact their financial sustainability. For example, im­
confirmation of expectations accounted for 61 % of the variability in provements to blockchain technology could increase transaction speeds
perceived usefulness. In comparison to the results obtained through SEM and decrease energy consumption, making cryptocurrencies more
analysis, the deep ANN multi-layer perceptron, functioning as a super­ financially sustainable.
vised non-linear classification algorithm, exhibited superior perfor­ A substantial limitation of blockchain technology lies in its ineffi­
mance in predicting perceived usefulness. This was evident as it cient utilization of computing resources (Li et al., 2020). As crypto­
achieved an improved predictive accuracy, with averages of 87.34 % for currencies rely on energy-intensive mining and transaction processing,
training and 87.76 % for testing. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the environmental challenges of cryptocurrencies can threaten their
confirmation of expectations was the input that predicted perceived financial sustainability (Uddin et al., 2021). Therefore, future work can
usefulness and satisfaction the most. explore approaches to reducing energy consumption and carbon emis­
sions associated with cryptocurrency mining and transaction processing.
5.2. Practical implications Cryptocurrencies have the potential to disrupt conventional financial
systems, and future research can explore the economic and financial
Beyond finance, blockchain technology has the power to revolu­ implications of this disruption, including the impact on financial sta­
tionize a wide range of industries, such as education, supply chain bility, monetary policy, and financial intermediation (Cong et al., 2022).
management, healthcare, and real estate (Arpaci and Bahari, 2023a). Overall, although cryptocurrencies represent innovation, they confront
Certain cryptocurrencies, like Ethereum, facilitate the creation of smart substantial challenges in terms of widespread adoption. Nevertheless,
contracts, which are automated agreements wherein the contractual with the ongoing evolution and maturation of technology, there is po­
terms between the seller and buyer are directly encoded as lines of code tential for increased adoption in the days ahead. As new technologies
(Shuaib et al., 2022). This can streamline and automate business pro­ and approaches emerge, future work will be essential to understanding
cesses. Further, cryptocurrencies enable the creation of digital assets the full range of possibilities and challenges associated with
that can be used to represent ownership of physical or digital assets. This cryptocurrencies.
can enable new forms of ownership and investment.
However, despite their innovative potential, cryptocurrencies still CRediT authorship contribution statement
face significant challenges when it comes to adoption. The results
indicated that perceived risks, regulation, and price volatility are sig­ This is to certify that the author has seen and approved the final
nificant factors in predicting the perceived usefulness of cryptocurren­ version of the manuscript being submitted. I warrant that the article is
cies. All three of these issues are interconnected challenges that my original work, hasn't received prior publication, and isn't under
cryptocurrencies need to overcome (Corbet et al., 2019). Currently, consideration for publication elsewhere.
cryptocurrencies are not as heavily regulated as conventional financial
instruments, which can create risks for investors and potentially impact Data availability
their financial sustainability (Gherghina and Simionescu, 2023). Prior
findings indicate that there is restricted engagement with crypto­ Data will be made available on request.
currencies as a result of their rapid price fluctuations and excessive
volatility (Khaki et al., 2023). Appendix A. Scale items
Additionally, security concerns related to hacking and other cyber-
attacks can impact the financial sustainability of cryptocurrencies. Financial sustainability (Arpaci et al., 2022)
Further, the demand for a cryptocurrency and its volatility can also
impact its perceived usefulness and consequently its financial sustain­ FS1. “Cryptocurrencies have addressed the most important financial
ability. High volatility can lead to uncertainty and instability, while low problems.”
demand can lead to low liquidity and decreased adoption. Users need to FS2. “The solution that cryptocurrencies offer financial problems is
trust the technology and the people behind it to confirm and use cryp­ satisfactory.”
tocurrencies (Koroma et al., 2022). Any incidents of hacking, fraud, or FS3. “Cryptocurrencies-related policies developed to deal with the
scams can damage users' trust and lead to decreased use (Roppelt, 2019). financial contradictions are sufficient.”
Users should be aware of these risks and take steps to mitigate them,
such as using reputable platforms, maintaining strong security practices, Satisfaction (Bhattacherjee, 2001)
and staying up-to-date on regulatory developments.
To achieve long-term financial sustainability, cryptocurrencies must S1. “I am satisfied with the service provided by cryptocurrency
undergo widespread adoption and integration into mainstream financial exchanges.”
systems through regulatory measures. Thereby, cryptocurrencies can be S2. “I am satisfied with the benefits obtained from cryptocurrencies.”
utilized for peer-to-peer transactions, which can be faster and more S3. “Overall, I am satisfied with my experience of cryptocurrencies.”
efficient than traditional payment methods (Sharma and Chandra,
2022). Cryptocurrencies can also be used for cross-border transactions, Confirmation of expectations (Bhattacherjee, 2001)
without the need for a centralized intermediary. Cryptocurrencies can
be bought and sold as an investment, similar to stocks or other financial C1. “My experience using cryptocurrencies was better than what I
assets. However, their volatile nature means that they carry higher risks expected.”
and uncertainties than traditional investments (Kumar and Anandarao, C2. “The service level provided by cryptocurrency exchanges was

9
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

better than what I expected.” role of the theory of planned behavior and perceived risk. Int. J. Commun. Syst.,
e4590 https://doi.org/10.1002/dac.4590.
C3. “Overall, most of my expectations when using cryptocurrencies
Arpaci, I., 2017. Antecedents and consequences of cloud computing adoption in
were confirmed.” education to achieve knowledge management. Computers in Human Behavior 70.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2017.01.024.
Arpaci, I., 2018. An investigation of the relationship between university students’
Perceived usefulness (Arpaci, 2017)
innovativeness profile and their academic success in the project development course.
Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management 7 (2), 79–95.
PU1. “Using cryptocurrencies can help make money.” Arpaci, I., Bahari, M., 2023a. A complementary SEM and deep ANN approach to predict
PU2. “Investing in cryptocurrencies provides a new opportunity to the adoption of cryptocurrencies from the perspective of cybersecurity. Comput.
Hum. Behav. 143, 107678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2023.107678.
make money.” Arpaci, I., Bahari, M., 2023b. Investigating the role of psychological needs in predicting
PU3. “Cryptocurrencies provide its users with fast transactions and the educational sustainability of Metaverse using a deep learning-based hybrid SEM-
lower transaction costs.” ANN technique. Interactive Learning Environments 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/
10494820.2022.2164313.
PU4. “Overall, cryptocurrencies are useful in managing personal Arpaci, I., Sevinc, K., 2022. Development of the cybersecurity scale (CS-S): evidence of
finances.” validity and reliability. Inf. Dev. 38 (2), 218–226. https://doi.org/10.1177/
0266666921997512.
Arpaci, I., Karatas, K., Kusci, I., Al-Emran, M., 2022. Understanding the social
Perceived risk (Arpaci and Sevinc, 2022) sustainability of the Metaverse by integrating UTAUT2 and big five personality
traits: A hybrid SEM-ANN approach. Technology in Society 71, 102120. https://doi.
PR1. “Cryptocurrencies stored in my brokerage account cannot be org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.102120.
Ashaari, M.A., Singh, K.S.D., Abbasi, G.A., Amran, A., Liebana-Cabanillas, F.J., 2021. Big
hacked or stolen (R).”
data analytics capability for improved performance of higher education institutions
PR2. “Storing cryptocurrency assets in an offline cold wallet is safe in the Era of IR 4.0: a multi-analytical SEM & ANN perspective. Technological
from hackers and scammers.” Forecasting and Social Change 173, 121119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
techfore.2021.121119.
PR3. “Storing cryptocurrency assets in a hot wallet does not involve
Bariviera, A.F., Merediz-Solà, I., 2021. Where do we stand in cryptocurrencies economic
any risk (R).” research? A survey based on hybrid analysis. J. Econ. Surv. 35 (2), 377–407. https://
PR4. “Cryptocurrency exchanges are vulnerable to cyber-attacks.” doi.org/10.1111/joes.12412.
Beck, R., 2018. Beyond bitcoin: the rise of blockchain world. Computer 51 (2), 54–58.
https://doi.org/10.1109/MC.2018.1451660.
Regulation Beck, R., Müller-Bloch, C., King, J.L., 2018. Governance in the blockchain economy: a
framework and research agenda. Journal of the Association for Information Systems
R1. “Regulation for cryptocurrencies is required to prevent illegal 19 (10), 1020–1034. https://doi.org/10.17705/1jais.00518.
Bennani, K.S., Arpaci, I., 2021. Factors influencing individual and organizational
transactions.” adoption of cryptocurrencies. In: Goutte, S., Guesmi, K., Saadi, S. (Eds.),
R2. “Regulation for cryptocurrencies is needed to protect investors.” Cryptofinance: A New Currency for A New Economy. World Scientific Publishing
R3. “Regulation for cryptocurrencies is needed to prevent market Co., pp. 147–169. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811239670_0008
Berg, C., Davidson, S., Potts, J., 2019. Understanding the blockchain economy. In:
manipulation.” Understanding the Blockchain Economy. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/
10.4337/9781788975001.
Price volatility Bezovski, Z., Davcev, L., Mitreva, M., 2021. Current adoption state of cryptocurrencies as
an electronic payment method. Management Research and Practice 13 (1), 44–50.
Bhattacherjee, A., 2001. Understanding information systems continuance: an
V1. “Price volatility affects my strategic investment decisions.” expectation-confirmation model. MIS Q. 25 (3), 351. https://doi.org/10.2307/
V2. “Volatility causes cryptocurrency prices to be unpredictable.” 3250921.
Bhimani, A., Hausken, K., Arif, S., 2022. Do national development factors affect
V3. “The price volatility of cryptocurrencies makes it impossible to
cryptocurrency adoption? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 181, 121739. https://doi.
use them as a means of payment.” org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121739.
Borri, N., Shakhnov, K., 2020. Regulation spillovers across cryptocurrency markets.
Financ. Res. Lett. 36, 101333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.101333.
Innovativeness (Arpaci, 2018)
Chang, V., Baudier, P., Zhang, H., Xu, Q., Zhang, J., Arami, M., 2020. How Blockchain
can impact financial services – the overview, challenges and recommendations from
I1. “I enjoy trying new ideas.” expert interviewees. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 158, 120166.
I2. “I seek out new ways to do things.” https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120166.
Chen, G., Xu, B., Lu, M., Chen, N.-S., 2018. Exploring blockchain technology and its
I3. “I frequently improvise methods for solving a problem when an potential applications for education. Smart Learning Environments 5 (1). https://
answer is not apparent.” doi.org/10.1186/S40561-017-0050-X.
I4. “I find it stimulating to be original in my thinking and behavior.” Cherian, J.M., 2022. Currency dominance and national power in the era of distributed
ledger technology and cryptocurrency. Chinese Journal of International Review 04
I5. “I am receptive to new ideas.” (01). https://doi.org/10.1142/S2630531322500044.
Chiu, W., Cho, H., Chi, C.G., 2021. Consumers’ continuance intention to use fitness and
References health apps: an integration of the expectation–confirmation model and investment
model. Inf. Technol. People 34 (3), 978–998. https://doi.org/10.1108/ITP-09-2019-
0463.
Abbasi, G.A., Goh, Y.N., Iranmanesh, M., Liebana-Cabanillas, F., 2023. Determinants of
Cong, L.W., Li, Y., Wang, N., 2022. Token-based platform finance. J. Financ. Econ. 144
continuous intention to use retail apps: a hybrid PLS-ANN approach. J. Mark. Theory
(3), 972–991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.002.
Pract. 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/10696679.2023.2218098.
Corbet, S., Lucey, B., Urquhart, A., Yarovaya, L., 2019. Cryptocurrencies as a financial
Aboobaker, N., D, R., KA, Z., 2023. Fostering entrepreneurial mindsets: the impact of
asset: a systematic analysis. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 62, 182–199. https://doi.org/
learning motivation, personal innovativeness, technological self-efficacy, and human
10.1016/j.irfa.2018.09.003.
capital on entrepreneurial intention. J. Int. Educ. Bus. https://doi.org/10.1108/
Dabbous, A., Merhej Sayegh, M., Aoun Barakat, K., 2022. Understanding the adoption of
JIEB-10-2022-0071.
cryptocurrencies for financial transactions within a high-risk context. J. Risk Financ.
Al-Amri, R., Zakaria, N.H., Habbal, A., Hassan, S., 2019. Cryptocurrency adoption:
23 (4), 349–367. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-10-2021-0169.
current stage, opportunities, and open challenges. International Journal of Advanced
de Andrés, P., Arroyo, D., Correia, R., Rezola, A., 2022. Challenges of the market for
Computer Research 9 (44), 293–307. https://doi.org/10.19101/IJACR.PID43.
initial coin offerings. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 79, 101966. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
Albayati, H., Kim, S.K., Rho, J.J., 2020. Accepting financial transactions using
irfa.2021.101966.
blockchain technology and cryptocurrency: a customer perspective approach.
Dhiman, N., Jamwal, M., 2023. Tourists’ post-adoption continuance intentions of
Technology in Society 62, 101320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101320.
chatbots: integrating task–technology fit model and expectation–confirmation
Al-Emran, M., Arpaci, I., Salloum, S.A., 2020. An empirical examination of continuous
theory. Foresight 25 (2), 209–224. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0207.
intention to use m-learning: an integrated model. Educ. Inf. Technol. 25 (4),
Faqih, K.M.S., 2016. An empirical analysis of factors predicting the behavioral intention
2899–2918. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10639-019-10094-2.
to adopt Internet shopping technology among non-shoppers in a developing country
Allen, D.W.E., Berg, C., Markey-Towler, B., Novak, M., Potts, J., 2020. Blockchain and
context: does gender matter? J. Retail. Consum. Serv. 30, 140–164. https://doi.org/
the evolution of institutional technologies: implications for innovation policy. Res.
10.1016/j.jretconser.2016.01.016.
Policy 49 (1), 103865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2019.103865.
Anser, M.K., Zaigham, G.H.K., Imran Rasheed, M., Pitafi, A.H., Iqbal, J., Luqman, A.,
2020. Social media usage and individuals’ intentions toward adopting Bitcoin: The

10
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Fornell, C., Larcker, D.F., 1981. Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable Niranjanamurthy, M., Nithya, B.N., Jagannatha, S., 2019. Analysis of Blockchain
variables and measurement error. J. Market. Res. 18 (1), 39–50. https://doi.org/ technology: pros, cons and SWOT. Clust. Comput. 22, 14743–14757. https://doi.
10.1177/002224378101800104. org/10.1007/S10586-018-2387-5.
Fry, J., Serbera, J.-P., 2020. Quantifying the sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain. Oh, S., Ji, H., Kim, J., Park, E., del Pobil, A.P., 2022. Deep learning model based on
Journal of Enterprise Information Management 33 (6), 1379–1394. https://doi.org/ expectation-confirmation theory to predict customer satisfaction in hospitality
10.1108/JEIM-06-2018-0134. service. Information Technology & Tourism 24 (1), 109–126. https://doi.org/
Gandal, N., Hamrick, J., Moore, T., Oberman, T., 2018. Price manipulation in the Bitcoin 10.1007/s40558-022-00222-z.
ecosystem. J. Monet. Econ. 95, 86–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. Podsakoff, P.M., Organ, D.W., 1986. Self-reports in organizational research: problems
jmoneco.2017.12.004. and prospects. J. Manag. 12 (4), 531–544. https://doi.org/10.1177/
Ghaisani, N.P., Kannan, R., Basbeth, F., 2022. Consumers’ intention to continue using 014920638601200408.
cryptocurrency mobile wallets in Malaysia. International Journal of Management, Qiao, R., Zhu, S., Wang, Q., Qin, J., 2018. Optimization of dynamic data traceability
Finance and Accounting 3 (2), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.33093/ijomfa.2022.3.2.1. mechanism in Internet of Things based on consortium blockchain. International
Gherghina, Ş.C., Simionescu, L.N., 2023. Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks 14 (12), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1177/
pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear 1550147718819072.
autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality. Financial Quamara, S., Singh, A.K., 2022. A systematic survey on security concerns in
Innovation 9 (1), 21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00430-w. cryptocurrencies: state-of-the-art and perspectives. Comput. Secur. 113, 102548.
Gil-Cordero, E., Cabrera-Sánchez, J.P., Arrás-Cortés, M.J., 2020. Cryptocurrencies as a https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cose.2021.102548.
financial tool: acceptance factors. Mathematics 8 (11), 1974. https://doi.org/ Ragnedda, M., Destefanis, G., 2019. In: Ragnedda, M., Destefanis, G. (Eds.), Blockchain
10.3390/math8111974. and Web 3.0: Social, Economic, and Technological Challenges. Routledge.
Griffith, T., Clancey-Shang, D., 2023. Cryptocurrency regulation and market quality. Rahi, S., Othman Mansour, M.M., Alharafsheh, M., Alghizzawi, M., 2021. The post-
J. Int. Financ. Mark. Inst. Money 84, 101744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. adoption behavior of internet banking users through the eyes of self-determination
intfin.2023.101744. theory and expectation confirmation model. J. Enterp. Inf. Manag. 34 (6),
Hair, J.F., Babin, B.J., Anderson, R.E., Black, W.C., 2022. Multivariate data analysis. In: 1874–1892. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEIM-04-2020-0156.
Book, 8th ed. Cengage Learning. Rehman, S.U., Usman, M., Fernando, Y., Kamarudin, D., Waheed, A., 2023. Improving
Hameed, B.I., 2019. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies technology: a survey. JOIV: manufacturing supply chain performance: nexus of industrial Internet of Things,
International Journal on Informatics Visualization 3 (4). https://doi.org/10.30630/ blockchain technology and innovativeness. Journal of Science and Technology
joiv.3.4.293. Policy Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSTPM-12-2021-0191.
Henseler, J., Ringle, C.M., Sarstedt, M., 2015. A new criterion for assessing discriminant Rogers, E., 2010. Diffusion of Innovations, 4th ed. Simon and Schuster.
validity in variance-based structural equation modeling. J. Acad. Mark. Sci. 43 (1), Roppelt, J.C., 2019. Security Risks Surrounding Cryptocurrency Usage: A Study on the
115–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-014-0403-8. Security Risks of Cryptocurrencies and How Security Perception Affects Usage.
Hu, X., Zhang, J., Shen, S., 2022. Exploring the pathway from seeking to sharing social University of Twente.
support in e-learning: an investigation based on the norm of reciprocity and S Kumar, A., Ajaz, T., 2019. Co-movement in crypto-currency markets: evidences from
expectation confirmation theory. Curr. Psychol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144- wavelet analysis. Financial Innovation 5 (1), 33. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-
022-03982-3. 019-0143-3.
Janssen, M., Weerakkody, V., Ismagilova, E., Sivarajah, U., Irani, Z., 2020. A framework Sarkar, S., Khare, A., 2019. Influence of expectation confirmation, network externalities,
for analysing blockchain technology adoption: integrating institutional, market and and flow on use of mobile shopping apps. International Journal of Human–Computer
technical factors. Int. J. Inf. Manag. 50, 302–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. Interaction 35 (16), 1449–1460. https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2018.1540383.
ijinfomgt.2019.08.012. Shahzad, F., Xiu, G., Wang, J., Shahbaz, M., 2018. An empirical investigation on the
Jumaan, I.A., Hashim, N.H., Al-Ghazali, B.M., 2020. The role of cognitive absorption in adoption of cryptocurrencies among the people of mainland China. Technol. Soc. 55,
predicting mobile internet users’ continuance intention: an extension of the 33–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2018.05.006.
expectation-confirmation model. Technology in Society 63, 101355. https://doi.org/ Sharma, P., Chandra, R., 2022. Significance of Blockchain in Banking and Insurance,
10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101355. pp. 99–127. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-4133-6.ch006.
Kalinić, Z., Marinković, V., Kalinić, L., Liébana-Cabanillas, F., 2021. Neural network Shuaib, M., Alam, S., Ahmed, R., Qamar, S., Nasir, M.S., Alam, M.S., 2022. Current
modeling of consumer satisfaction in mobile commerce: an empirical analysis. status, requirements, and challenges of blockchain application in land registry.
Expert Systems with Applications 175, 114803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. International Journal of Information Retrieval Research 12 (2), 1–20. https://doi.
eswa.2021.114803. org/10.4018/IJIRR.299934.
Kerr, D.S., Loveland, K.A., Smith, K.T., Smith, L.M., 2023. Cryptocurrency risks, fraud Sohaib, O., Hussain, W., Asif, M., Access, M.A.-I., 2019. A PLS-SEM Neural Network
cases, and financial performance. Risks 11 (3), 51. https://doi.org/10.3390/ Approach for Understanding Cryptocurrency Adoption. Ieeexplore.Ieee.Org
risks11030051. undefined. (n.d.). Retrieved August 31, 2021, from. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abst
Khaki, A., Prasad, M., Al-Mohamad, S., Bakry, W., Vo, X.V., 2023. Re-evaluating portfolio ract/document/8933370/.
diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: are decentralized cryptocurrencies Statista, 2023. Cryptocurrencies - worldwide. https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/fi
enough? Res. Int. Bus. Financ. 64, 101823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ntech/digital-assets/cryptocurrencies/worldwide.
ribaf.2022.101823. Sukumaran, S., Siew Bee, T., Wasiuzzaman, S., 2022. Investment in cryptocurrencies: a
Koroma, J., Rongting, Z., Muhideen, S., Akintunde, T.Y., Amosun, T.S., Dauda, S.J., study of its adoption among Malaysian investors. J. Decis. Syst. 1–29. https://doi.
Sawaneh, I.A., 2022. Assessing citizens’ behavior towards blockchain org/10.1080/12460125.2022.2123086.
cryptocurrency adoption in the Mano River Union States: mediation, moderation Sun, J., Yan, J., Zhang, K.Z.K., 2016. Blockchain-based sharing services: what blockchain
role of trust and ethical issues. Technology in Society 68, 101885. https://doi.org/ technology can contribute to smart cities. Financial Innovation 2 (1). https://doi.
10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.101885. org/10.1186/S40854-016-0040-Y.
Kshetri, N., 2021. Blockchain Technology for Improving Transparency and Citizen’s Swan, M., 2015. Blockchain: Blueprint for a New Economy. O’Reilly Media, Inc.
Trust, pp. 716–735. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73100-7_52. Tata, S.V., Prashar, S., Parsad, C., 2021. Examining the influence of satisfaction and
Kumar, A.S., Anandarao, S., 2019. Volatility spillover in crypto-currency markets: some regret on online shoppers’ post-purchase behaviour. BIJ 28 (6), 1987–2007. https://
evidences from GARCH and wavelet analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-06-2020-0332.
Its Applications 524, 448–458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.154. TripleA, 2023. Cryptocurrency ownership data. https://triple-a.io/crypto-ownership-dat
Li, X., Jiang, P., Chen, T., Luo, X., Wen, Q., 2020. A survey on the security of blockchain a/.
systems. Futur. Gener. Comput. Syst. 107, 841–853. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. Uddin, M.A., Stranieri, A., Gondal, I., Balasubramanian, V., 2021. A survey on the
future.2017.08.020. adoption of blockchain in IoT: challenges and solutions. Blockchain: Research and
Loh, X.M., Lee, V.H., Leong, L.Y., 2022. Mobile-lizing continuance intention with the Applications 2 (2), 100006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bcra.2021.100006.
mobile expectation-confirmation model: an SEM-ANN-NCA approach. Expert Syst. Underwood, S., 2016. Blockchain beyond bitcoin. Commun. ACM 59 (11), 15–17.
Appl. 205, 117659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117659. https://doi.org/10.1145/2994581.
Malika, R., 2021. The Challenges to the Adoption of Cryptocurrencies: A Study of the Upadhyay, N., Upadhyay, S., Al-Debei, M.M., Baabdullah, A.M., Dwivedi, Y.K., 2023. The
Factors Slowing Down Their Adoption. University of Namur. https://pure.unamur. influence of digital entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial orientation on intention of
be/ws/portalfiles/portal/61889908/2021_RachidiM_memoire.pdf. family businesses to adopt artificial intelligence: examining the mediating role of
Mazambani, L., Mutambara, E., 2019. Predicting FinTech innovation adoption in South business innovativeness. Int. J. Entrep. Behav. Res. 29 (1), 80–115. https://doi.org/
Africa: the case of cryptocurrency. Afr. J. Econ. Manag. Stud. 11 (1), 30–50. https:// 10.1108/IJEBR-02-2022-0154.
doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-04-2019-0152. Urquhart, A., 2018. What causes the attention of Bitcoin? Econ. Lett. 166, 40–44.
Mendoza-Tello, J.C., Mora, H., Pujol-López, F.A., Lytras, M.D., 2019. Disruptive https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.017.
innovation of cryptocurrencies in consumer acceptance and trust. IseB 17 (2–4), Yamane, T., 1973. Statistics: An Introductory Analysis, 3rd ed. HarperCollins Publishers.
195–222. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10257-019-00415-w. Yeoh, P., 2017. Regulatory issues in blockchain technology. Journal of Financial
Nadeem, M.A., Liu, Z., Pitafi, A.H., Younis, A., Xu, Y., 2020. Investigating the repurchase Regulation and Compliance 25 (2), 196–208. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRC-08-
intention of Bitcoin: empirical evidence from China. Data Technologies and 2016-0068.
Applications 54 (5), 625–642. https://doi.org/10.1108/DTA-10-2019-0182. Yuan, Y., Wang, F.-Y., 2018. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies: model, techniques, and
Naeem, M.A., Lucey, B.M., Karim, S., Ghafoor, A., 2022. Do financial volatilities mitigate applications. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems 48 (9),
the risk of cryptocurrency indexes? Financ. Res. Lett. 50, 103206. https://doi.org/ 1421–1428. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.2018.2854904.
10.1016/j.frl.2022.103206.
Nakamoto, S., 2008. Bitcoin: a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Retrieved August 31,
2021, from. www.bitcoin.org.

11
I. Arpaci Technological Forecasting & Social Change 196 (2023) 122858

Yue, W., Zhang, S., Zhang, Q., 2021. Asymmetric news effects on cryptocurrency Prof. Ibrahim Arpaci is an academic currently serving as the head of the Department of
liquidity: an event study perspective. Financ. Res. Lett. 41, 101799. https://doi.org/ Software Engineering at Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University. He earned his Ph.D. and M.Sc.
10.1016/j.frl.2020.101799. in Information Systems from the Middle East Technical University. He conducted research
Zhao, J.L., Fan, S., Yan, J., 2016. Overview of business innovations and research as a visiting researcher at the Ted Rogers School of Information Technology Management
opportunities in blockchain and introduction to the special issue. Financial at Ryerson University in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Prof. ARPACI's research interests
Innovation 2 (1), 28. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-016-0049-2. encompass information systems, human-computer interaction, cybersecurity, and
Zı̄le, K., Strazdiņa, R., 2018. Blockchain use cases and their feasibility. Applied Computer cyberpsychology. In the years 2020, 2021, and 2022, Stanford University ranked Prof.
Systems 23 (1), 12–20. https://doi.org/10.2478/acss-2018-0002. Ibrahim ARPACI among the top 2 % of scientists globally.

12