airlines.iata.

org

DATA’S POWER IS IN
ITS ACCESSIBILITY
Aviation has always had enormous
quantities of data but is only just
beginning to manage and exploit it

CEO Interviews LATAM, Korean Air | Sustainable fuels Achieving 5%

2024 – 01

carbon reduction by 2030 | ICAO IATA speaks to the Secretary General

Juan Carlos Salazar | Airline projections Outlook upgraded to $27.7bn
 14:04
09/02/2024 10:13
10/01/2024
LEAP turns heads in the boardroom. cfmaeroengines.com
LEAP-powered aircraft are achieving the highest days flown ratio* for their thrust class.
That means fewer spare aircraft and more flights, which helps profitability climb.
Another reason to say LEAP. By example. *Compared to 83% for competition, per third-party data.

AREN’T BORN.

ENGINEERED.
LEADERS

P0000707.107_CFM_LEAP_1BF_LEADERS_AirlinesIntl_270x210_Feb24_v1.indd 1
THEY’RE
92% asset availability

IATA.Feb24_002.indd 2
 Airlines.

Contents 2024 – 01

20
Comment Features
5 Willie Walsh, Director General 20 Technology
With a strong Q4 performance, airline Data sits at the heart of the industry’s
traffic is on course to return to normal digital transformation, improving
the overall experience for both
Digest passengers and airlines
8 IATA and industry update
oneworld joins IATA CO2 Connect, 30 Sustainable fuels
GNSS spoofing threat, Cargo standards Two major global events have provided
the context for aviation achieving 5%
12 Data: In numbers carbon reduction by 2030
Traffic figures and forecast 3
33 ICAO
CEO Interviews Juan Carlos Salazar, Secretary
14 Growth and sustainability balance General of the International Civil
Roberto Alvo, CEO at LATAM, says Aviation Organization (ICAO),
it is possible for aviation to increase talks about ICAO’s role in
air connectivity while reducing its 30 tackling aviation challenges
environmental impact
36 Airline projections
24 Always first, never a follower The industry outlook has been
Chairman and CEO at Korean Air, upgraded to $25.7bn profit in 2024,
Walter Cho, believes that taking
business risks is essential for success
14 revealing that aviation will remain
resilient going forward

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IATA.Feb24_004.indd
Cathy Cargo FP.indd 14 09/02/2024
31/01/2024 14:06
08:27
 Willie Walsh: DG Insight

On sustainable
aviation fuels
Our push to connect our world
even more strongly than before the
pandemic must not come at the
expense of our environment. We
saw a strong increase in SAF use in
2023, but SAF is still only 3% of all
global renewable fuels production.
A massive collective effort is
needed to increase SAF output as a
proportion of overall renewable fuel
production as quickly as possible.

On GNSS Spoofing
Airlines are seeing a significant rise
in incidents of GNSS interference.

Traffic set to To counter this, we need

coordinated collection and sharing
of GNSS safety data; universal
procedural GNSS incident guidance

return to normal from aircraft manufacturers; and

a commitment from states to retain
traditional navigation systems as
backup in cases where GNSS are
5

December traffic stood just 2.5% below 2019 levels, with a spoofed or jammed.
strong performance in quarter four, teeing-up airlines for a return to
On Dangerous Goods
normal growth patterns in 2024. The recovery gained momentum as The safe carriage of dangerous
we went through 2023. We were pleasantly surprised by the early goods has become common
opening of China, which was a very positive development. The recovery practice, thanks to the strict
adherence to global standards and
in travel is good news. Consequently we were able to upgrade our
guidelines. IATA will continue its
2023 profit forecast to $23.3 billion. But we’ve always got to put advocacy work with key
profitability in the airline industry into context. Although it sounds like stakeholders to maintain a globally
a big figure, when you look at it as an aggregate across the industry, in aligned, and practically focused
approach to the regulated transport
margin terms we’re still significantly below where we need to be and of dangerous goods. This will lead
significantly below where we were prior to the pandemic. In the main, to more efficient and robust supply
while it was a good year, it was still frustrating for many airlines because chains whilst upholding aviation’s
of issues outside of their control. We continue to see ATC disruption in number one priority of safety.
the US and Europe. And we had a lot of supply chain issues which have
On the Red Sea situation
impacted the capacity that airlines would have wanted to put into the
The recent disruption to maritime
market. Nevertheless, the restoration of connectivity is powering the routes in the Red Sea has seen some
global economy as people travel to do business, further their shippers pivot to air cargo. The
educations, take hard-earned vacations, and much more. increased demand saw a spike in
air cargo yields on related trade
lanes. A similar spike is expected in
January as disruptions intensified.
While not all cargo is suitable for
air transport, it is a vital option for
some of the most urgent shipments
in extraordinary circumstances.
Willie Walsh And that is critical to the continuity
IATA Director General of the global economy.

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 6
There are over 60 elections taking place worldwide in 2024. This is an ideal
opportunity for newly elected governments to provide the right policies for a safe
and sustainable air transport industry so that aviation, in turn, can continue to
deliver social and economic benefits.

Airlines 2024 – 01
The Big Picture

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19/02/2024 12:18
6-7 Big Picture_Airlines 2024-01_Airlines International.indd 7 19/02/2024 12:18
 Digest
oneworld joins IATA CO2 Connect
IATA and the oneworld alliance Sustainability and Chief Economist, customers with high-quality estimates
will work together in the field of Marie Owens Thomsen said: “Travelers of the CO2 emissions of their flights.
CO2 emission calculations with all want to make informed choices Our collaboration with IATA on CO2
13 oneworld member airlines regarding their CO2 footprint and IATA Connect will in turn help key players
committing to contributing CO2 Connect set out to provide CO2 across the aviation sector, including
operational data to IATA’s CO2 emission calculations based on airlines, aircraft manufacturers and
Connect emissions calculator. operational data. We are delighted that travel management companies, to
This will further improve the oneworld will become the first airline make better choices for travelers.”
quality and accuracy of the tool, as alliance to join this initiative, bringing IATA launched CO2 Connect in
the percentage of airline-specific fuel in its 13 member airlines as data June 2022, with the objective of using
8 burn data used by the calculator will contributors. Their decision member airline data, such as fuel burn,
substantially increase, with the data underscores the importance of the belly cargo and load factors, to provide
provided by the following oneworld industry’s objective of providing high-quality per flight passenger CO2
member airlines: Alaska Airlines, consistency and alignment in this field.” emission calculations. IATA CO2
American Airlines, British Airways, oneworld Environmental and Connect calculates CO2 emissions for
Cathay Pacific, Finnair, Iberia, Japan Sustainability Board Chair and General 74 aircraft types, representing around
Airlines, Malaysia Airlines, Qatar Manager Sustainability, Cathay Pacific, 98% of the active global passenger
Airways, Qantas, Royal Air Maroc, Grace Cheung said: “oneworld is proud fleet, and considers traffic data from
Royal Jordanian, and SriLankan Airlines. to be the first global airline alliance 881 aircraft operators representing
IATA Senior Vice President, to support IATA’s work to provide about 93% of global air travel.

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 Digest

IATA AND ICAO COLLABORATE ON DANGEROUS GOODS

IATA and ICAO have goods by air. An agreement Carlos Salazar during which
extended their long-standing to this effect was concluded at greater collaboration between the
cooperation on setting and the IATA Executive Offices in two organizations was discussed.
implementing global standards for Geneva during a visit by ICAO (See also interview with the ICAO
the safe carriage of dangerous Secretary General Juan Secretary General, pp33-35.)

Countering the
GNSS spoofing threat
The European Union Aviation Safety “But we have seen a sharp rise in attacks on
Agency (EASA) and IATA announced the these systems, which poses a safety risk.
conclusions of a workshop jointly hosted at EASA is tackling the risk specific to these new
EASA’s headquarters to combat incidents technologies. We immediately need to ensure
of GNSS spoofing and jamming. that pilots and crews can identify the risks
The workshop’s high-level conclusion was and know how to react and land safely. In
that interference with satellite-based services the medium term, we will need to adapt the
that provide information on the precise certification requirements of the navigation
position of an aircraft can pose significant and landing systems. For the longer term,
challenges to aviation safety. Mitigating these we need to ensure we are involved in the 9
risks requires short-, medium- and long-term design of future satellite navigation systems.”
measures, beginning with the sharing of Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
incident information and remedies. added: “Airlines are seeing a significant rise
“GNSS systems offer tremendous advantages in incidents of GNSS interference ... the
to aviation in increasing the safety of support and resources of EASA and other
operations in a busy shared airspace,” said governmental authorities are essential.
EASA Acting Executive Director Luc Tytgat. And airlines will be critical partners.”

UPDATED STANDARDS IN CARGO As IATA

AND GROUND HANDLING MANUALS and ICAO
IATA has completed the the transport of mobility devices, extend their
annual revision of its industry
manuals for cargo and ground
particularly when powered by
lithium and other batteries;
collaboration,
handling operations, Amendments to Live Animal IATA began
incorporating the latest changes Regulations (LAR); Complete issuing guidance
IMAGES: ISTOCK/SHUTTERSTOCK/NOUN PROJECT

and revisions made to many of revision of application of

the underlying industry Perishable Cargo Regulations for the carriage
standards, as well as any State (PCR) and Temperature Control of Dangerous
and operator variations. These Regulations (TCR); IATA Cargo
reflect the sector’s ongoing Handling Manual (ICHM) now
Goods on
commitment to further includes guidance on developing aircraft in 1956
improving safety, introducing
more sustainable operations, and
an Operational Risk Assessment
(ORA) and possible mitigation
and has been
enhancing the passenger strategies; Ongoing drive for changes in the manuals, IATA updating
experience and cargo handling. standardized training and published various trend reports and devising
In total more than 300 operational procedures in in the fields of Dangerous Goods,
changes have been made, Ground Handling. Special Cargo, Cargo Operations standards
including: Updated guidance on In addition to the necessary and Ground Operations. ever since

airlines.iata.org 2024 – 01 Airlines

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 Sponsored Feature: Venari Partners

Venari Partners is a London-based executive search

firm with a specialization in aviation and aerospace

DARING TO DO
THINGS DIFFERENTLY
Max Kownatzki, CEO of SunExpress, says the airline’s unique culture
is the key to its success—and attracting pilots back to the airline.

S “SunExpress
unExpress is an airline that delights extra flights equating to 380,000 seats.
in bucking a trend. Against all the “We also have a diverse customer base,”
odds, during the depths of the says Kownatzki. “We are flying our aircraft thrives in a
pandemic in 2021, the airline—
which operates largely in the
for 16 hours a day or more and we have
expanded into such new markets as the challenging
Türkiye-western Europe market—improved
on its 2019 passenger numbers. Even as the
United Kingdom, which grew more than
80% last year. We have expanded our
environment
industry celebrates a near full recovery in partner network and are even flying and there is no
10 2023, compared with the pre-COVID period,
SunExpress was operating at 146% of
domestically in South Africa now.”
SunExpress leased two Boeing 737s to
place I would
2019’s available seat kilometers. South African Airways (SAA) during the rather be,
“We like to do things differently,” says
Max Kownatzki, CEO of SunExpress. “But
southern hemisphere’s summer season and
will support SAA’s operations with four especially in a
the expansion is in line with the growth
rate of the market we operate in,
aircraft next year. “And we have
partnered with the passenger
time of crisis”
Max Kownatzki,
which is approximately cruise line MSC to provide
CEO of SunExpress
8%-12% annually. That’s our crew work
why we need to continue opportunities during our
developing our slower winter season,” we grow,” says Kownatzki. “We are
operations.” adds Kownatzki. recruiting 169 pilots and about 400 cabin
SunExpress has 33 crew this year.”
more aircraft coming Unique culture SunExpress does its own multi-pilot
from a previous order For Kownatzki, however, license ab initio training. About 120 people
and is taking up all the real reason for the have already graduated, 60 were enrolled
options in its new, success of SunExpress is its last year and a similar number is expected
90-strong aircraft order for people and the unique spirit to be enrolled in 2024.
Boeing Max 8s and 10s, which will they create. The airline has some The airline also runs a full diversity
see its fleet exceed 166 aircraft by 2035. 4,000 employees representing 36 and inclusion program and has signed
Tourism and visiting friends and relatives nationalities and is proud of its low IATA’s 25by2025 initiative. “That’s the
(VFR) traffic, connecting Turkish people turnover of staff. Recently, several pilots minimum hurdle we have to leap and will
living abroad with Türkiye, has given the returned to the airline after previously just be the start,” says Kownatzki. “Diversity
airline a strong platform on which to taking up other offers. The company is a driver of what it means to be an
build. In addition, generating about 90% of culture and family spirit were cited as attractive employer.”
its revenues in euros helps with currency reasons for these returns. The culture at SunExpress is also
volatility. In September-December 2023, “That was especially welcome as influenced by its parent airlines— Lufthansa
the airline put on more than 2,000 obviously we need more pilots and crew as and Turkish Airlines. Both carriers are

Airlines 2024 – 01 airlines.iata.org

 11

performing well in their own right and are The staffing and aircraft supply issues are Pitied Airline CEOs’ given my CEO start date
also searching for talent with new aircraft well documented, but Kownatzki highlights at the beginning of the pandemic. And after
on order. the threat of increasing supplier cost. the pandemic, we were challenged with the
But Kownatzki says it’s a two-way SunExpress’ ATC costs, ground handling earthquake, geopolitical tensions, ground
relationship with the owners leveraging the fees, and costs for air travel taxes jumped handling staff shortages and other factors.
agility and innovation at SunExpress as 70% in 2023 compared with 2022. “The But SunExpress thrives in a challenging
much as SunExpress utilizes the cost increase hits the industry hard,” says environment and there is no place I would
connections and might of its parents. Kownatzki. “We cannot pass most of these rather be, especially in a time of crisis.”
Turkish Airlines has the Chair of the costs on to the passenger. If we did that, we “I have never had a routine day, but at
Board of Directors and the Deputy CEO would be out of business.” SunExpress we are a family, and I can
while Lufthansa provides the Vice-Chair of Meanwhile, Germany, a major market for always rely on the output this family
the Board and the CEO. SunExpress, saw a -0.3% GDP contraction delivers,” he adds. “Everybody plays their
last year. Economic volatility will likely be a part in making SunExpress successful and
Flying through headwinds feature over the coming year, heightened we embrace that.”
Even with the support of two of the largest by continuing geopolitical tensions.
airlines in the world, SunExpress will have “But the positives outweigh the For more information on
to overcome some strong headwinds in the negatives,” Kownatzki concludes. “At first, SunExpress, please visit
years ahead. the press regarded me as one of the ‘Most www.sunexpress.com/en/

airlines.iata.org 2024 – 01 Airlines

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 Data

In numbers TRAFFIC FIGURES & FORECAST

Source for data and charts: IATA

31%
Fuel price
OPERATING COSTS

The fuel price is expected to average

$113.8/barrel (jet) in 2024, leading to
a total fuel bill of $281 billion or
31% of all operating costs

12

$964,000,Total industry revenues in 2024 are

expected to grow 7.6% year-over-year

Industry
expenses
will grow
6.9% to
4.7 billion 4.7 billion
$914bn people are
expected

$914bn to travel
in 2024

Airlines 2024 – 01 airlines.iata.org

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 Data

Strong passenger growth in 2023

Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) and

$254 Cargo Tonne Kilometers (CTKs) growth in 2023

RPK YoY%
CTK YoY%

vs $315
The average real
return air fare in
2023 was $254, 20%
lower than the
average fare of
$315 in 2019

2.0%
96.3%

36.4%

32.3%

20.2%

17.0%

15.3%

36.9%
1.6%
-1.8%

-3.9%

-5.7%

-1.9%
0.9%

(measured in
constant 2018 dollars)
Asia Africa Middle Europe Latin North Industry
Pacific East America America

0,000,000 Regional Roundup E = estimated F = forecasted

13

2023 NET PROFIT 2024 NET PROFIT 2024 DEMAND (RPK)

(E) (MARGIN) (F) (MARGIN)
vs. 2023 vs. 2019
North America
$14.3 bn (4.2%) $14.4 bn (4.0%) +6.3% +8.1%

97%
$7.7 bn (3.5%) $7.9 bn (3.3%) +10.5% +7.0%
Asia Pacific
-$0.1 bn (-0.1%) $1.1 bn (0.5%) +13.5% -1.4%
Latin America
-$0.6 bn (-1.5%) -$0.4 bn (-0.8%) +7.4% +7.4% of travelers expressed
Middle East satisfaction with air
$2.6 bn (4.3%) $3.1 bn (4.8%) +6.3% +9.9% travel in a recent
Africa poll of 6,500 people
-$0.5 bn (-3.4%) -$0.4 bn (-2.7%) +7.3% +3.0%
in 14 countries

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 CEO Interview

14

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 CEO Interview

Finding the balance

between growth
and sustainability
Roberto Alvo, CEO LATAM, says it is possible for aviation to
increase air connectivity while reducing its environmental impact.
WORDS: GRAHAM NEWTON

15

A
s the largest airline in Latin 2022. Despite the difficult times we all
America, Roberto Alvo, the endured, I am very proud of how LATAM has
CEO of LATAM, is proud of emerged as a group. We are stronger than in
how it has battled through 2019. It is a leaner organization with a solid
the tough times of COVID to balance sheet and we are very agile as a group.
emerge more resilient and agile as a group. As our public financial results show, LATAM
is performing solidly post Chapter 11. The
Is it difficult to create a single brand when strength and diversity of the business model has
you have different entities? been a critical factor. In addition, the group’s
I think having a single brand operating more competitive cost structure and network
different entities is an operational and cultural strength have enabled our affiliates to maintain
advantage. We provide our customers with a significant market shares and at the same time
unique and consistent value proposition, a take advantage of growth opportunities that
better delivery of seamless traveling, and a have arisen—LATAM Airlines Colombia’s
deeper, more compelling sense of belonging. recent expansion being an example.
What is more challenging is associating the This financial strength ensures that we
brand to the different countries where we can navigate the uncertainties that may still
operate domestically. Latin America has a lie ahead, while allowing us to embrace
long-standing tradition of having carriers future opportunities.
identified with their respective countries and
as the only truly South American airline group How important is the relationship with
we need to realize the opportunity to become Delta to your future success?
the flag carrier to a region. The Joint Venture with Delta has allowed
LATAM to strengthen its presence in the
Tell us about your restructuring and whether fiercely competitive North American Market,
you are happy with your financial performance? delivering substantial benefits for both
We completed our restructuring in November airlines and our passengers.

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 CEO Interview

15,000
In the first year of the partnership, we have
launched six new routes, operated 15,000 flights,
and transported more than 3 million customers.
Since October 2022, LATAM and Delta have
increased their seat offering by 75% and are
leading the capacity share for service between
the United States and South America.
The result is the best connectivity between
North and South America in the industry, In the first year of the partnership, we have
uniting more than 120 destinations served by launched six new routes, operated 15,000 flights,
LATAM with more than 200 North American and transported more than 3 million customers
destinations operated by Delta.

Has cargo become more important to you and legacy systems, despite the difficult
how do we improve digitalization in this sector? circumstances. Digitalization became one of
Cargo has always been at the core of our strategy our top priorities, enabling us to streamline
as we recognize the synergy it generates for our collaboration with customers through
passenger network and the important role air eBooking, IATA’s EDI standards, e-freight
16 cargo plays in our region’s economy. programs, and real-time e-tracking.
During the pandemic, we continued to
invest in freighter expansion, enhancing our What are the main challenges and
product capabilities, and modernizing our IT opportunities in the Americas?
The macroeconomic context and the socio-
political reality of the region continues to be
challenging. The world is still recovering from
the effects of the pandemic, economic
stagnation, and economic shocks from
armed conflicts that can affect passenger
demand and profitability.
There is also a need to invest in modernizing
airport infrastructure and, of course, the
existential question of how to decarbonize
the industry in a sustainable way.
I want to take advantage of this last point to
talk about the opportunities. With six of the
10 most biodiverse countries on the planet,
South America is uniquely positioned to
Since October provide nature-based solutions that could not
2022, both only serve as a source of carbon credits but
LATAM and also offer the industry an opportunity to make
Delta have a real difference in terms of supporting
increased their conservation projects.
seat offering Furthermore, it has the potential to be a
global leader in the production of sustainable
by 75% aviation fuels (SAF) due to its available natural
resources and wealth in renewable energies.

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 CEO Interview

For this to happen, it is necessary for both question. As an industry, in the short-term,
public and private stakeholders to collaborate, we need to support respective governments
play their roles, and dare to lead the energy to define strategies and roadmaps to meet our
transition that the industry requires. net-zero commitments in a sustainable way,
considering all pathways.
Can the region become a major producer Operational efficiencies, improvements to
of SAF and what can governments do to airspace design, air traffic management, and
accelerate the process? the use of clean energy in ground operations
South America has tremendous potential are all potential quick wins.
for the development of SAF, but government I’m confident that if each of us plays our
leadership is key. role in this, if we are considered and consistent
In South America, there are only nascent “Despite the in our decision-making as an industry, and
and often disparate policy discussions. For
example, there is no commercial SAF
difficult times collaborate proactively with governments and
other stakeholders, then we will be able to
production and though there are a number we all endured, achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
of early-stage projects, they are unlikely to I am very
reach a critical mass in the near future. Looking further ahead, are you optimistic
A strategic approach is needed by
proud of how about the future of the industry?
governments to ensure a balance between LATAM has I’m optimistic. I believe that in South America, 17
decarbonization and aviation’s continuing emerged as a there is still room for further growth considering
contribution to connectivity and socio- the level of development of aviation and the
economic development.
group. We are economies in the region. So, the question is not
This is no easy feat. That’s why, together stronger whether we will continue to grow or not, but
with Airbus, we have financed an MIT study
to evaluate options in the region and potential
than in 2019” rather how we grow in a sustainable way.

public policy alternatives. How do we get governments to understand

the value of aviation, especially in Latin
Will the industry get to net zero by 2050? America where there is no viable alternative?
And what more can industry partners—such Actually, I believe governments understand
as the OEMs, airports, and air navigation the value of aviation, at least in terms of
service providers—do? connectivity.
I believe that reaching net-zero will be the Aviation plays a fundamental role in the
biggest challenge for aviation in the first half of social and economic development of countries.
this century, as we are one of the most difficult It is an essential part of people’s lives because
industries to abate even though air travel is at it not only represents leisure or business trips
the same time totally necessary for all societies. but also is necessary to access medical care,
In this sense it is a balancing act. On the one education, and other services that are not
hand, we must reduce our carbon footprint but always available where they live.
on the other hand, we need to continue offering For example, in Chile we play an important
connectivity, which plays a fundamental role in role connecting Rapa Nui, the most remote
social and economic development. populated island on the planet. During the
pandemic we were forced to stop our flights,
How can we continue to widen access to air but our commitment to the island did not
travel while reducing our carbon footprint? stop. We collaborated with the community
How can we decarbonize in a sustainable way? and helped keep the residents of Rapa Nui
I believe there is no single answer to this supplied and connected.

airlines.iata.org 2024 – 01 Airlines

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 Sponsored Feature: Huawei

DETECTING
DISTURBANCES TO
PROTECT AIRPORTS
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critical perimeter security at airports.

R
unway excursions and incursions alarms are generated. The need for Sensing Solution integrates a wealth of
are two of the five global frequent alarm overrides deteriorates technologies, such as fiber sensing and
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occurrences (G-HRCs) currently also incur high construction and operation technologies, and intelligent image
identified in the International Civil and maintenance (O&M) costs. processing, providing fresh ideas to manage
Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) Global Perimeter detection solutions that and protect airport safety.
Aviation Safety Plan. Accurately detecting converge multiple technologies are The distributed fiber optic sensing
disturbances at the perimeter of airports is beginning to emerge in the airport industry technology used in the solution relies on
18 important for the safety of passengers and to respond to these issues. Among them, vibration-sensing optical cables, which
airport staff alike. However, as the grounds integrated solutions like optical- and greatly enhance airport perimeter detection.
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detection systems are becoming a core part Distributed Fiber Optic stabilization despite strong winds. The
of airside safety. Sensing + AI Algorithms solution relies on vibration-sensing optical
During day-to-day operations, complex Huawei’s Perimeter Security with Fiber cables that can differentiate interference
environments challenge the reliability and Sensing Solution for smart airports is a like poor weather conditions from actual
adaptability of protection measures along scenario-based solution tailored for the risks based on waveform learning. Efficient
airport perimeters. This includes the likes of airport industry. Using distributed fiber optic operations before and during an incident
overgrown foliage, wayward pedestrians, sensing along with AI foundation models, the filter out factors such as ordinary passersby
wind, and rain. Conventional technology- solution can deliver 24/7 comprehensive and inspection workers. This ensures
assisted measures—such as vibration cables long-distance coverage in any weather. The vibration-sensing optical cables can
and microwave intrusion detection solution accurately identifies various types of effectively filter out interference from small
sensors—frequently generate false alarms, intrusions and generates very few false animals, and alarms are reliable and valid.
and other genuine issues are easily missed. alarms. This means more intelligent airport In addition, the solution can be managed
Adding to the complexity, systems are often perimeter systems, safer operations, and a on a centralized software platform, which
isolated from each other, making it difficult better work environment for airport staff. supports diversified functions, such as report,
to implement the correct response once Huawei’s Perimeter Security with Fiber alarm, and warning. The platform displays the
overall perimeter situation on one map.
“Huawei’s Perimeter Security with Near-Zero Missed Alarms,
Fiber Sensing Solution for smart Improving Airport Safety
airports is a scenario-based solution Huawei’s Perimeter Security with Fiber
Sensing Solution protects aircraft and
tailored for the airport industry” ground handlers in protection zones,

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 Huawei: Sponsored Feature

eliminates or controls potential risks, and through vibration feature reconstruction ladders being put up against the razor wire
identifies and manages the impact of and uses the domain-wide situation of the metal fence. The solution
human factors on airport security to the judgment mechanism to improve the outperforms vibration cables in terms of
maximum extent. This way, it improves alarm accuracy to 90%. The system can anti-interference performance across many
airside safety and airport operational resist level-7 winds and heavy rain, scenarios, such as level-7 winds, heavy rain,
efficiency. Solution benefits include: significantly lowering the false alarm rate. and wake turbulence. It ensures less than
• Near-zero missed alarms: The solution • Easy deployment and O&M: five false alarms are generated on average
employs all-optical coherent noise Conventional airport perimeter detection every day along a 7.3km perimeter, reduces
suppression and enhanced oDSP systems frequently generate false alarms invalid reviews, and enhances system
algorithms to prevent missed alarms. For and suffer costly O&M as a large number usability. Additionally, the solution improves
this, it collects vibration signals with high of sensing devices need to be deployed. the average precision of intrusion
sensitivity in the wide dynamic range Huawei’s solution deploys only one positioning to less than 1.32 meters,
(WDR) mode, and increases the optical optical cable to detect and locate making it an ideal choice for building
signal collection rate to 99.9%. intrusions accurate to meters along a intelligent perimeters for airfields.
• Very few false alarms: The solution 20-km perimeter. The front-end optical Aimed at developing smart airports,
integrates environment features with cable is passive and O&M-free. Huawei will continue leveraging its advanced
detail features to precisely distinguish • High-precision positioning accelerates information and communication
intrusions from environmental incident response and handling. technologies to comprehensively improve
interferences. It ensures that the daily So far, the solution has been successfully civil aviation services in terms of safety,
false alarm per kilometer is as low as just deployed for commercial use at airports efficiency, experience, and carbon footprint.
one even in adverse weather conditions managed by Guangdong Airport Authority.
like strong winds and heavy rain. In In practice, the solution is more secure than • For more information on
addition, after collecting vibration signals, conventional ones; in particular, it misses Huawei’s solution, visit
the solution extracts key intrusion features almost no alarms in such scenarios as https://rb.gy/ck7jgq 19

Leading Infrastructure
to Accelerate
Industrial Intelligence
MWC 2024 Feb 26-Feb 29 |
Barcelona, Spain
Huawei Smart
Transportation BU

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 Technology

rom back-office systems to schedules

F to IATA’s latest proof of concept of a

fully integrated digital identity travel
experience, the ability to capture
and securely transfer data is the
pillar on which all advanced technologies rely.
Aviation’s good fortune is the amount of Giving airline
data it has, which translates into enormous
potential to transform operations and
customer service. Its challenge is properly
utilizing this data, capturing, structuring, and
analyzing it to make it useful.
data back to
“Aviation gets vast quantities of data from
across its operational and value streams,” says
Kim Macaulay, IATA’s Chief Information and
Data Officer. “But data’s power is in its
the airlines
accessibility, and this is where the industry Data sits at the heart of the industry’s
needs to improve. We cannot continue to digital transformation, helping to improve the
20 work on data in silos.” experience for both passengers and airlines.
WORDS: GRAHAM NEWTON
Unified IT infrastructure
IATA has revamped its services to help airlines
manage and exploit their data for their own
benefit and for the good of the industry. A data
team has been established consisting of data IATA is investing in its capabilities to create
management experts, data scientists, and more opportunities for the industry.”
engineers that ensures IATA masters Macaulay—who is tasked with leading IATA’s
fundamental data functions. Supporting data team and establishing best practices in
technologies, such as machine learning will also data collection and retention for industry
be put in place in a unified IT infrastructure use—stresses that the IATA team will always be
that promotes cross-sector data availability. sized to ensure efficient and secure operations
Airline IT personnel will therefore more while relying on outsourcing for additional
easily find a counterpart in IATA and be able to tasks, such as data input and processing.
discuss nuanced, technical issues, making it “The point is that IATA understands the
easier to arrive at solutions. The set-up also Aviation has value of data, is a trusted airline partner in
provides huge scope for collaboration on
building use cases and furthering the
always had handling that data, and we can feed our
learning throughout our industry services and
industry’s digital transformation. enormous products,” she says. “We will have more data
“Data was not a separate function before,” quantities of than ever before, we will learn quickly, and just
explains Macaulay. “It was tied up in the about every aspect of the industry stands to
various programs and only discussed in the
data but is only benefit from our work.”
context of that program. But now we can more just beginning An IATA Data and Analytics Task Force
generally talk about data quality and analytics to manage it (IDATF) consisting of airline representatives
and have far more constructive conversations in data management, business analytics, data
about the best way forward. There are new
and exploit science, innovation, and enterprise
tools, new people, and an improved structure. its potential optimization will inform an important portion

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 Technology

of work. Each year, the group will set an but in future data storage will rarely be so
agenda to tackle identified actionable localized. A more holistic view of cybersecurity
priorities where data and advanced will bring greater trust and create a virtuous
analytics can be used to support the circle that then facilitates more data sharing.
airline community.
Data mountain
Regulations and cybersecurity Aviation has always had enormous quantities
In the data world, privacy and of data but is only just beginning to manage it
cybersecurity are paramount. In terms and exploit its potential. That data will soon be
of privacy, there are well-established, integral to providing and improving customer
stringent regulations in various and operational services.
jurisdictions, and these will be always Consider forthcoming industry developments
followed where appropriate. That is no on the customer side. ICAO is working on
easy task, however, as every day brings various digital travel credentials, including a
new regulations either from a specific visible digital seal—a 2D barcode that is
country or on a specific data element. digitally signed—and a data structure barcode,
Because airlines operate in multiple with the aim of establishing standards that
jurisdictions and can serve a passenger from enable all travel documents to be held on a
anywhere in the world, there is a real need to smartphone. There is also the European Travel 21
establish a data privacy framework to guide all Information and Authorization System
endeavors in this area. Macaulay, who has a (ETIAS), which comes into force in 2025.
banking background, notes the progress that ETIAS is planned to cost €7 and will be valid for
has been made in the financial sector in this three years or until the associated passport
respect and calls for something similar. expires. Airlines will be responsible for verifying
Cybersecurity, meanwhile, is an increasingly that their passengers have a valid ETIAS 48
important topic and the ability to share best hours prior to departure. The US Transport
practices and technologies will be critical to Security Administration is also upgrading its
the success of the industry’s digital credential authentication technology.
transformation. The key will be managing the On the operational side, there is IATA’s new
supply chain, suggests Macaulay, and ensuring Schedule Data Exchange Program, which has
the processes are in place that allow all its first airline signatories. The aim is to have
stakeholders to take responsibility for keeping 75 airlines providing schedule data in 2024
the data secure. and, as with some safety programs, those that
Data loss prevention and incident event provide information will be granted access to
monitoring tools are being expanded, and the the anonymized industry data, helping to
move to data warehousing also brings inform their network planning.
additional security features. Before, the “Data is a key asset and aviation data belongs
security focus was on servers and laptops, to the industry,” Macaulay concludes. “IATA is
developing its data function and programs so
that airlines have greater control over their
“Aviation gets vast quantities of data from data and access to it at all times. Rather than
across its operational and value streams. But data existing in verticals, we will create a
data’s power is in its accessibility, and this horizontal structure. With that ability will
come some key insights that help to develop
is where the industry needs to improve” products and services across the board and
Kim Macaulay, IATA’s Chief Information and Data Officer generate significant value for our members.”

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 Sponsored Feature: Infosys

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 Infosys: Sponsored Feature

23

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 CEO Interview

Always
first, never
a follower
Walter Cho, Chairman and CEO,
Korean Air, says that taking business
risks is essential to being successful.
WORDS: GRAHAM NEWTON
24

N
ow that the pandemic is over,
new markets and consolidation
may be back on the agenda for
airlines around the world.
Chairman and CEO Walter Cho
explains where Korean Air is heading next.

What is the latest on the merger with Asiana?

Approval from the European Union (EU),
the United States, and Japan is still pending.
We met with the EU in July 2023, and can
now meet all their requirements, so we expect
that approval shortly. With the United States
and Japan, it is the same story although a
slightly different process in each case. I am
very confident that by the end of the year at
the latest, the merger will be finalized.
At that point everything will become Korean
Air. Our low-cost carrier (LCC) subsidiaries
will also merge to be one LCC. We will have a
lot of work to do because the merger will mean
we operate just about every aircraft and engine
type available so we will certainly need to
simplify the fleet structure. And there will be
new branding, new uniforms, and much more
too. It will be a busy, but exciting time for us.

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 CEO Interview

25

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IATA.Feb24_026.indd 26 09/02/2024 14:06
 CEO Interview

Are we seeing a return to consolidation That will be the biggest factor in demand. It isn’t
following the pandemic? great at the moment but I’m sure it will recover.
The way we view aviation changes according
to circumstances, which is why you must How important is cargo to your strategy?
always be flexible. In 2018, I talked with my executives about
Consolidation during the pandemic simply possibly reducing our cargo operations and
wasn’t possible. Remember, at one point in focusing on the passenger side of the business.
2020, air travel essentially shut down. But, like
every carrier, we realized how vulnerable we
were and that once operations started up again
we would have to restructure the business
model and take a fresh look at the
opportunities available.
40%
Korean Air
is at about
My Head of Cargo of course advised against
that and that is possibly the best piece of
advice I ever had!
Korea is a big exporter and though cargo
was important, COVID definitely moved it up
the agenda. We did so well throughout the
Asiana was on the market before, but to be pandemic because of cargo and we were one
honest, pre-COVID I wasn’t interested. The 40% of its of the few carriers to post positive financial
pandemic gave me a different perspective pre-COVID results and keep all our staff. Cargo will
though. It is the right decision to merge now
because it gives Korean Air a clear pathway
figures for remain an important part of our strategy
going forward and I’m sure will continue to
forward and a stronger future. We can now China have a strong impact on our revenues. 27
look beyond mere survival and start to plan We are investing in new freighters and
again for sustainable growth. heavily investing in our facility at Incheon to
make our cargo handling processes as seamless
How about alliances? Is SkyTeam and your as possible. We want Incheon to be the cargo
relationship with Delta still relevant? hub of the world.
There would be no joint venture (JV) with
Delta if not for SkyTeam and Delta is the most Are you confident you will have enough
valuable partnership we have ever had. So, for skilled personnel in future?
us, they are very relevant. Korean Air is still a very attractive employer
SkyTeam is a broader, more flexible set in the national market. As mentioned, we
of partnerships than our JV with Delta. But sustained our staff levels throughout the
the alliance brings seamless travel for all pandemic, and we managed to keep everyone
our customers and the network will become busy doing something. That enhanced our
even stronger once we have completed the reputation, so I don’t think we need to worry
merger with Asiana. about a shortage in the foreseeable future. In
fact, we are hiring a lot of people this year,
What are the prospects for Asia-Pacific in including pilots, and we are seeing a very
2024 and what are the main challenges? decent response.
The China market is critical for us and for the
IMAGES: SHUTTERSTOCK, NOUN PROJECT

region and that hasn’t yet fully recovered. Can aviation achieve net-zero carbon
Korean Air is at about 40% of its pre-COVID emissions by 2050?
figures for China. I was one of the IATA Board Members that
There will be a slightly negative perception signed off on that and there is no doubt that
of China regarding travel that we will have to the goal is a good, first step.
overcome and there is also concern over the But we must be sure about what we mean by
political situation with Taiwan. But the most carbon neutral and be clear in explaining that.
important thing is China’s economic situation. To be frank, we will also need a big

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 CEO Interview

breakthrough at some point. In Korea,

sustainability progress is slow and though it
will accelerate here and elsewhere, we need
2019
In 2019, at the Paris
Air Show, we put in
that breakthrough to make net zero possible. a big order for new
If you look at the automotive sector, electric
car sales are slowing down because in many aircraft. I now wish
places the infrastructure hasn’t caught up. We I had ordered more
need to learn from that in aviation and make
sure any progress we make isn’t held back by Of course, nothing can replace the human
external factors. We can fly using sustainable touch in a service industry. If a robot serves
aviation fuels (SAF), for example, but don’t you food at a restaurant, does that make it a
have enough supply. That could also happen more luxurious service? I don’t think so. You
with electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft. need to be sensible and realistic. Face-to-face
service will dominate at least for the
How will you ensure a sufficient supply of SAF? foreseeable future.
We are looking into SAF production, because
we all know that supply is not what it should be. Has the pandemic made you a better leader?
More than half our fuel is bought overseas so I don’t know but I certainly gave my executives
28 we will look to get SAF from those markets first, more headaches and sleepless nights when
but we do have an agreement with a Korean I agreed to the Asiana merger in 2020!
producer that they will supply us in future. I think we all learned about risk
management. In 2019, at the Paris Air Show,
What are the industry developments that we put in a big order for new aircraft. I now
excite you? wish I had ordered more. Decisions that are
I am an early adopter by nature and always buy good at the time are good decisions. You can’t
myself the latest smartphone. So I’m willing to judge in retrospect, and you can’t worry about
take a risk when it comes to new technologies what might be. My belief is that it hurts to be
and implementing them in our business. cautious in business because you will never
I am excited by artificial intelligence (AI). It win if you are a follower. In my view, the
will bring the world closer together and that is pandemic confirmed that.
also what aviation is about, so it’s a natural fit. We started adopting cloud technology in
We will certainly be using AI where possible 2018, for example, and we were the only
because it will bring a big jump in customer company in Korea that did that at the time.
service by helping passengers overcome And I actually started trying to persuade my
language barriers, process difficulties, and so team to do it years before that. Now, we have
forth. It will be a game-changer at the airport fully migrated all our data.
and onboard. But it meant that we were really adaptable
when the pandemic hit. Companies suddenly
“We will certainly be using AI where possible realized the need for virtual meetings and
remote working, but we already had that all set
because it will bring a big jump in customer up. That is what risk can bring you.
service by helping passengers overcome
IMAGE: GETTY IMAGES

The only area where I remain risk-averse

language barriers, process difficulties, and is safety. That is always an airline’s first
responsibility and that can never change.
so forth. It will be a game-changer at the Anything that improves safety is always a
airport and onboard” Walter Cho, Chairman and CEO, Korean Air good thing.

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 Huawei: Sponsored Feature

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A
fter weathering the COVID-19 converged. Customer experience, reliability, featured by its light weight, and small
storm, the aviation industry is and security at airports are first principles in size, extending to the end with less
gradually recovering. designing airport communications systems. cabling, it also allows for smooth
According to an April 2023 upgrades and lays possibilities for a more
IATA report, passenger One network sustainability industry going forward.
numbers are now just 15% below 2019 levels Airport terminals and airside areas have
and the gap is narrowing each month. While diverse requirements and often run on • For more information, visit
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economic uncertainty, the focus has shifted amounts of data. The technology being industries/aviation

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 Sustainable fuels

Achieving
5% carbon
reduction
by 2030
Two major global events have
30 provided the context for aviation’s
decarbonization efforts.
WORDS: GRAHAM NEWTON

n late December 2023 in Dubai, the United

I Nations Climate Change Conference

(COP28) agreed to “transition away from
fossil fuels in energy systems.” UN Climate
Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell
said that while “we didn’t turn the page on the
fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the
beginning of the end.”
Meanwhile, the Third Conference on
Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by
the International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO) was an important step forward for the
industry as it agreed a global framework to
promote sustainable aviation fuels (SAF)
production in all geographies.
The agreement calls for fuels used in
international aviation to be 5% less carbon
intensive by 2030. At this point, at current rates,
CO2 emissions for international aviation are
expected to reach 682 million tonnes, meaning
SAF and low carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) need

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 Sustainable fuels

to abate some 34 million tonnes of CO2. fuels that will be produced in 2030.
To achieve this requires about 17.5 billion “In 2023, though, it accounts for only 3%,”
liters or 14 million tonnes of SAF to be says Hemant Mistry, IATA’s Director, Energy
produced. Airlines’ desire to buy SAF at this Transition. “We had hoped SAF would be about
quantity is already there. Forty-three airlines 0.5% of total aviation fuel by now but it is only
have nearly $50 billion of voluntary 0.2%. SAF production is increasing though, and
agreements in place that equate to we hope additionally that SAF will be 6% of
approximately 13 million tonnes and that renewable fuels in 2024, which should get us to
will doubtless increase. The demand for SAF is SAF representing 0.5% of total jet fuel.”
so strong that they added $756 million to a There are new refineries pledged to SAF
record high fuel bill in 2023. support coming online. A new $7.7 billion
Supply is a different story, however. In 2023, biorefinery is under construction in Panama,
airlines were able to put just 0.5 million tonnes for example. Due to come online in 2027, the
of SAF into their aircraft. To get to the 14 biorefinery is reported to have earmarked SAF
million tonnes of SAF required by the CAAF/3 as a core product and Panama’s logistical
agreement, as well as other commitments, excellence will add to the proposition. And
means that SAF need to account for about Neste’s Singapore plant was expanded early
25-30% of the 63 million tonnes of renewable last year.
Furthermore, IATA reports that though only 31
10 facilities are producing SAF, over 150
projects in 35 countries are being explored
To get to the that could be used for SAF production by 2029.
14 million
Policy support
tonnes of SAF Even so, significant policy support will be
required by essential. “Governments want aviation to be
the CAAF/3 net zero by 2050,” says Mistry. “Having set an
agreement interim target in the CAAF process they now
means that SAF need to deliver policy measures that can
need to account achieve the needed exponential increase in
for about 25-30% SAF production.”
of the 63 million Incentivizing the scaling up of SAF
production is a primary focus though
tonnes of mandates are coming into force in the
renewable European Union and elsewhere. In total, about
fuels that will 40 countries have either implemented or are
be produced known to be discussing SAF-related policies.
in 2030 Promoting the diversification of feedstocks
will be an essential element of any good policy.
IMAGES: ISTOCK, NOUN PROJECT

Approximately 85% of SAF facilities coming

online over the next five years will use the
hydrotreatment (HEFA) pathway, which relies
on inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking
oil, and industrial grease as feedstock. But
these substances are limited in quantity and
high in price.

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 Sustainable fuels

Other certified pathways include Alcohol-to- “A SAF accounting framework will work
Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which
use bio/agricultural wastes and residue. In fact,
there are eight pathways certified for SAF
production with an additional seven being
assessed in the coming years.
“We need to leverage all SAF technologies to
86%
of travelers
agreed that
against error, supplication, and fraud,” says
Mistry. “It isn’t easy to track SAF once mixed
with jet fuel. Modern digital technology and
recognized tracking and verification systems
that facilitate the auditing of SAF
environmental attributes will help promote
provide diversification and regional options, governments SAF deployment and uptake worldwide.”
including those with side-benefits, such as Elements that should form part of the
environmental restoration,” says Mistry.
should provide framework include the avoidance of double
“Aggregating wastes or recultivating land adds production counting and immutable tracking. For the
socio-economic benefits, for example, and incentives for former, the emissions reduction from the same
every region has an opportunity to create new airlines to batch of SAF must not be claimed more than
value chains.” access SAF once under the same scope. For the latter,
inputted data must not be altered or edited
Accounting framework throughout the supply chain.
Mistry also insists that real momentum is Other crucial factors involve interoperability
needed in a SAF accounting framework so that (so that a batch of SAF can be recognized in
32 everybody works from the same set of rules. different registries), agnosticism (so that
A SAF accounting framework would: accounting works within different regulatory
• Enable SAF production where it is frameworks), and divisibility (the
most efficient. environmental benefits of a batch of SAF
• Stimulate SAF uptake where demand delivered to the same airport can be split
would not justify local SAF production. between two or more different buyers).
• Minimize the costs of logistics, such
as transport. Passenger support
• Avoid emissions from the transportation Mistry points to passenger support for
of SAF. aviation’s efforts to encourage SAF production.
• Expand the customer base compared to In a recent survey, 86% of travelers agreed that
physically matching supply and demand, governments should provide production
providing a clear market signal favoring incentives for airlines to access SAF. In
the ramp up of SAF production. addition, 86% agreed it should be a priority for
• Facilitate compliance with mandatory as oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
well as voluntary emissions reduction “As an industry, we are committed to
schemes. reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,”
• Allow corporates customers to address concludes Mistry. “That means we need a
their Scope 3 emissions. cost-effective and environmentally efficient
IMAGES: SHUTTERSTOCK, NOUN PROJECT

way to incentivize the scaling up of SAF

“There is a long road ahead and oil companies production but avoid the physical matching of
SAF supply and demand in any specific
and governments must support our ambition. geographic location. There is a long road ahead
But we can get there and meet the CAAF/3 and oil companies and governments must
support our ambition. But we can get there
goal and other commitments on our way to and meet the CAAF/3 goal and other
the 2050 aspirational target” commitments on our way to the 2050
Hemant Mistry, IATA’s Director, Energy Transition aspirational target.”

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 ICAO

Fostering the good

created by safe and
sustainable aviation 33

Juan Carlos Salazar, Secretary General of the Thinking more broadly than these specific
accidents, is the investigation process working?
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Voluntary reporting and a ‘Just Culture’ are
talks to IATA’s Tony Concil about the critical elements in improving aviation safety.
organization’s role in tackling aviation challenges. The sharing of information is vital, and we
must make sure that everybody is comfortable
with that if we are to evolve as an industry.
he International Civil Aviation Accident reports are important to improving

T Organization (ICAO) is pleased

to work with organizations such as
IATA to deal with challenges the
aviation industry faces.
safety, but looking ahead, we need systems
that can predict future accidents and not rely
on learning once an accident has happened.
IMAGES: GETTY IMAGES, VIVIAN DOAN

How important was the CAAF/3 meeting and

Following the two aviation incidents in early does the industry have the structure in place
2024, are you still confident in aviation safety? to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050?
Flying is safe, but the two incidents are a I’ll take the opportunity to first state very clearly
reminder that aviation safety can never be taken that aviation needs to address the externalities—
for granted. Safety is something that we need to including those to the environment—that it
be aware of every day and is built by every creates in a very concrete manner. This is an
professional in the industry. Everybody has a objective that is a must for civil aviation to
role to play—airlines, airports, and air traffic continue to deliver the social and economic
controllers—in focusing on aviation safety. good that we all recognize and that attracted us
The system is robust, and the investigations to work in this incredible sector.
will make sure we learn whatever lessons we With that in mind, the agreement reached
need to learn to make aviation safer. That is at ICAO’s Conference on Aviation and
the spirit in which we work. Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) to achieve a 5%

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 ICAO

reduction in aviation’s carbon intensity by CORSIA to deliver meaningful carbon offsets

2030 with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and emissions reductions.
lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) and other
aviation cleaner energies was critical. It gives What role can ICAO play in resolving aviation
confidence in the resolve of both the industry issues, especially in conflict zones?
and governments to make the 2050 net zero ICAO is a specialized agency of the United
CO2 emissions target a reality. Nations. Our concern when it comes to
The objective is bold, placing significant conflict zones is to make sure that aviation
responsibility on the shoulders of the industry, is safe, and that passengers and crew are
with ICAO and governments bearing a crucial not endangered. Unfortunately, some of the
part of the burden. We must work together to greatest losses of life in aviation have been
come up with the right incentives and policies, related to conflict zones and we never want
particularly when it comes to increasing the that to happen again.
production of SAF. We produce a number of guidance
documents to help airlines and we also have
What are the next steps to scale up SAF specialized teams and work in conjunction
production? with our partners, such as IATA, the Civil Air
ICAO has a toolkit for governments. We Navigation Services Organization, Airports
34 prefer not to promote any particular incentives Council International, and our member states.
or policies but rather respect the different All countries recognize the role ICAO must
approaches that governments are taking and play and respect our work in keeping the skies
enable practical learning. Time will safe. We try to make sure that there are as few
demonstrate which ones are more effective. disruptions as possible and that airlines can
We also want to work more with developing continue to operate safely.
member states to produce feasibility studies
that identify potential opportunities and create Is aviation still an attractive employer for
a framework that will de-risk investment in the younger generations?
SAF production. We need to build SAF It is difficult to judge but clearly the industry
production capacity and provide a concrete must work to attract young professionals.
way forward. After COVID and the resulting job losses
across the sector, there is a real need for
What role will CORSIA play or is it being “Our concern people. There is no hard data, but we are told
undermined by taxes and charges? that younger talent now prefers the option of
ICAO will continue to work towards the global when it comes working remotely and with more flexibility.
implementation of the Carbon Offsetting and to conflict Sometimes, that is not easy in aviation.
Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
(CORSIA). CORSIA is a meeting point for the
zones is to But air travel, connecting people and
businesses, is still attractive. So, I hope that
vast majority of our member states and there make sure we will continue to see younger professionals
is a growing understanding of the scheme as that aviation joining the industry and providing fresh
we enter the implementation phase. input into the challenges that face us.
And as we start seeing a positive impact
is safe, and that This is also an opportunity to address the
in offsetting the industry’s carbon emissions, passengers gender gap. At ICAO we have programs such
we also expect to see more interest from and crew as the ICAO Gender Equality Programme
countries or regions that have been skeptical and the Next Generation of Aviation
so far. We are confident about the process are not Professionals (NGAP) that involve advocacy,
and that all the elements are in place for endangered” training, and internships. These provide

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 ICAO

“I cannot transformation and people strategy projects

that we have within ICAO.
praise This will help us to meet the expectations
enough the of our member states for ICAO to align its
results even more closely to their needs and
contributions those of the civil aviation system. A key
that IATA element in achieving this will be strong
experts make partnerships. I want ICAO to be the partner
of choice for organizations like IATA when
to ICAO’s tackling challenges to civil aviation in all
work” parts of the world. We have a good track
record of delivering successful results as
opportunities to ensure we have female as partners. And I see plenty of potential to
well as male professionals—future leaders— achieve even more by working together
entering the industry. more intensely.

Do people understand aviation’s role in What’s the best part of being ICAO
the UN Sustainable Development Goals? Secretary General? And what has been
Civil aviation’s role in development is not your best day so far? 35
well reflected in the SDG framework. And the The best part of this job is working with aviation
reality is that aviation’s role as an essential professionals who, throughout my professional
catalyst for development is not as visible as it life, have inspired me! As Secretary General,
needs to be at the global, international or I get exposed to all manner of experts, which is
national levels. Air connectivity will continue both exciting and humbling.
to be an enabler of the broader development The job also comes with challenges, not least
agenda. And we will need to do an even of which is managing a complex multinational
better job of helping people to see practical organization of which states and industry have
examples of what this means. very high expectations. ICAO must meet these
expectations with thin resources. That means
How important is the relationship doing more with less. That is not particular to
between ICAO and IATA? ICAO, it is the way of the world. And that is
It is of the utmost importance. The expertise, why the technological modernization of ICAO
knowledge and know-how that industry is a priority. And it is also why partnerships
contributes to ICAO is incredibly important. are so important.
I cannot praise enough the contributions that I cannot tell you what my best day is
IATA experts make to ICAO’s work. I can only because I believe that it is yet to come.
insist that we need this even more today because Every day, I see progress. Every day, I become
the challenges that are emerging need even aware of more areas where ICAO can help
IMAGES: NOUN PROJECT, VIVIAN DOAN

closer cooperation to respond rapidly. ICAO’s aviation to develop. By modernizing ICAO

doors are wide-open to the industry’s expertise. and developing even closer partnerships
ICAO will become even stronger. And, in
What challenges would you like to see some years, I will be able to hand my
resolved by the end of 2024? successor an organization that has
Internally, we have a transformation agenda continuously become more efficient and
for ICAO. I expect that by the end of this year more effective in fostering the good created
we will have some traction on the key digital by safe and sustainable civil aviation.

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 Airline projections

Industry outlook
upgraded to $25.7bn
profit in 2024
In brief… IATA has revealed that, as a whole, the industry
Outlook will remain resilient going forward into 2024.
highlights
WORDS: GRAHAM NEWTON
include:
36 Airline industry net profits
are expected to reach ATA has announced strengthened from the fact that, on average airlines will
$25.7 billion in 2024 (2.7%
net profit margin). That will
be a slight improvement over
2023, which is expected to
show a $23.3 billion net profit
(2.6% net profit margin).
In both 2023 and 2024
return on invested capital will
I profitability projections for airlines in
2023, which will then largely stabilize in
2024. However, net profitability at the
global level is expected to be well below
the cost of capital in both years. Very
significant regional variations in financial
retain just $5.45 for every passenger carried.
That’s about enough to buy a basic ‘grande
latte’ at a London Starbucks. But it is far too
little to build a future that is resilient to shocks
for a critical global industry on which 3.5% of
GDP depends and from which 3.05 million
lag the cost of capital by 4 performance remain. people directly earn their livelihoods. Airlines
percentage points, as interest “Considering the major losses of recent will always compete ferociously for their
rates around the world have
risen in response to the
years, the $25.7 billion net profit expected in customers, but they remain far too burdened
sharp inflationary impulse. 2024 is a tribute to aviation’s resilience. People by onerous regulation, fragmentation, high
Airline industry operating love to travel and that has helped airlines to infrastructure costs and a supply chain
profits are expected to reach come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of populated with oligopolies,” said Walsh.
$49.3 billion in 2024 from
$40.7 billion in 2023.
connectivity. The speed of the recovery has
Total revenues in 2024 are been extraordinary; yet it also appears that the Outlook drivers
expected to grow 7.6% pandemic has cost aviation about four years of Overall revenues in 2024 are expected to rise
year-over-year to a record growth. From 2024 the outlook indicates that faster than expenses (7.6% vs. 6.9%),
$964 billion.
Expense growth is expected to we can expect more normal growth patterns strengthening profitability. Although operating
be slightly lower at 6.9% for a for both passenger and cargo,” said Willie profits are expected to increase 21.1%
total of $914 billion. Walsh, IATA’s Director General. ($40.7 billion in 2023 to $49.3 billion in
Some 4.7 billion people are “Industry profits must be put into proper 2024), net profit margins increased at less
expected to travel in 2024,
an historic high that exceeds perspective. While the recovery is impressive, than half the pace (10%) largely due to
the pre-pandemic level of 4.5 a net profit margin of 2.7% is far below what increased interest rates expected in 2024.
billion recorded in 2019. investors in almost any other industry would
Cargo volumes are expected
accept. Of course, many airlines are doing Industry revenues are expected to reach an
to be 58 and 61 million
tonnes in 2023 and 2024, better than that average, and many are historic high of $964 billion in 2024. An
respectively. struggling. But there is something to be learned inventory of 40.1 million flights is expected to

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 Airline projections

be available in 2024, exceeding the 2019 level the passenger side of the business) while

$964bn
of 38.9 million and up from the 36.8 million international trade stagnates. Yields are
flights expected in 2023. expected to further correct towards pre-
pandemic levels with a -32.2% decline in 2023
Passenger revenues are expected to reach followed by a -20.9% decline expected in 2024.
$717 billion in 2024, up 12% from $642 billion They will remain high by historical standards,
in 2023. Revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) however. Note that yield progression has been
growth is expected to be 9.8% year-on-year. extraordinary in these last years (-8.2% in
Although that is more than double the 2019, +54.7% in 2020, +25.9% in 2021, +7% in
pre-pandemic growth trend, 2024 is expected 2022, -32.2% in 2023).
to mark the end of the dramatic year-on-year
increases that have been characteristic of the Expenses are expected to grow to $914 billion
recovery in 2021-2023. in 2024 (+6.9% on 2023 and +15.1% on 2019).
The high demand for travel coupled with
limited capacity due to persistent supply chain The fuel price is expected to average $113.8/
issues continues to create supply and demand barrel (jet) in 2024 translating into total fuel
conditions supporting yield growth. Passenger bill of $281 billion, accounting for 31% of all
yields in 2024 are expected to improve 1.8% operating costs. Airlines are expected to
compared with 2023. consume 99 billion gallons of fuel in 2024. 37
Reflecting the tight supply and demand High crude oil prices are expected to
conditions, efficiency levels are high with continue to be further exaggerated for airlines
the load factor expected to be 82.6% in 2024, as the crack spread (premium paid to refine
slightly better than 2023 (82%) and the crude oil into jet fuel) is expected to average
same as in 2019. 30% in 2024.
Industry CO2 emissions in 2024 are
IATA’s November 2023 passenger polling data expected to be 939 million tonnes from the
supports the optimistic outlook. consumption of 99 billion gallons of fuel.
A third of travelers polled say they are The aviation industry will increase its use
traveling more than they did pre-pandemic. of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and carbon
Some 49% indicate that their travel habits credits to reduce its carbon footprint. We
are now similar to pre-pandemic. Only 18% estimate that SAF production could rise to
said that they were traveling less. 0.53% of airlines’ total fuel consumption in
Looking ahead, 44% say that they will travel 2024, adding $2.4 billion to next year’s fuel bill.
more in the next 12 months than in the In addition, the Carbon Offsetting and
previous 12 months. Only 7% say they will Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
travel less and 48% expect to maintain (CORSIA) is a global market-based carbon
similar levels of travel in the coming 12 offsetting mechanism designed to stabilize
months as in the previous 12 months. international aviation emissions. The CORSIA-
Total revenues related costs are estimated at $1 billion in 2024.
Cargo revenues are expected to fall to in 2024 are Non-fuel expenses have been controlled
$111 billion in 2024. That is down sharply relatively well by airlines despite inflationary
from an extraordinary peak of $210 billion in
expected to pressures. With fixed costs being distributed
2021, but it is above 2019 revenues, which grow 7.6% over a larger scale of activity as the industry
were $101 billion. Yields will continue to be year-over-year recovered from the pandemic, non-fuel unit
negatively impacted by the continued growth to a record costs are falling in line with pre-pandemic level.
of belly capacity (related to strong growth on $964 billion In 2024 airlines expect non-fuel unit costs of

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 Airline projections

39.2 cents per available tonne kilometer (ATK) 2023

in 2024, which is 1.6% above 2023 levels and In brief… Airline profitability for 2023 performed better
matches 2019 levels. Total non-fuel costs are The Traveler’s than expected in IATA’s June outlook.
expected to reach $633 billion in 2024. Viewpoint Revenues for 2023 are now expected to reach
Passengers are counting on a $896 billion ($93 billion higher than expected).
Risks safe, sustainable, efficient and Expenses also grew to $855 billion ($74 billion
profitable airline industry.
Industry profitability is fragile and could IATA public opinion polling higher than the previous forecast). That
be affected (positively or negatively) by demonstrated the important translated into a $23.3 billion industry wide net
many factors: role that travelers see the profit. Although that is significantly above the
Global economic developments Easing airline industry playing: $9.8 billion forecast in June, the additional
89% agreed that air travel is
inflation, low unemployment rates, and a necessity for modern life $13.5 billion profit is equal to just 1.4% of
strong demand for travel are all positive 89% agreed that air revenue. The net profit margin is just 2.6%
developments. Nonetheless, economic connectivity is critical to the meaning that airlines will have earned on
economy
strains could arise. In China, for example, average $5.44 per passenger carried in 2023.
88% said that air travel has a
slow growth, high youth unemployment and positive impact on societies The improvement was entirely driven by the
disarray in property markets if not managed 83% said that the global air passenger business that saw revenues increase
properly, could impact global business transport network is a key compared with the previous forecast by $96
contributor to the UN
cycles. Similarly, should tolerance of high Sustainable Development
billion, to $642 billion. Cargo revenues in 2023
38 interest rates weaken, and unemployment Goals (SDGs) were $134.7 billion, which underperformed
rise significantly, the strong consumer the $142.3 billion expected in June.
demand that has supported the recovery
could weaken. The Traveler’s Viewpoint
War The operational impacts of the Ukraine Air travel continues to deliver value to
war and the Israel-Hamas war have been consumers. A recent public opinion poll (14
largely limited to re-routings due to airspace countries, 6,500 respondents who have taken
closures. On the cost side, the conflicts have at least one trip in the last year) revealed that
pushed up oil prices, which is impacting 97% of travellers expressed satisfaction with
airlines globally. An unexpected peace in their travel. Moreover, 88% agreed that air
either or both cases would bring benefits to travel makes their lives better and 80% agreed
the industry, but any escalation could that air travel is good value for money.
produce a radically different global Consumers can expect airfares to continue
economic scenario to which aviation would to track rising costs, particularly oil. IATA
not be immune. data, however, show that competition
Supply chains Supply chain issues continue continues to drive price benefits for
to impact global trade and business. Airlines consumers. The average real return air fare in
have been directly impacted by unforeseen 2023 is expected to be $254 which is 20%
maintenance issues on some aircraft/engine lower than the average fare of $315 in 2019
types as well as delays in the delivery of (measured in constant 2018 dollars).
aircraft parts and of aircraft, limiting Aviation remains committed to its goal of
capacity expansion and fleet renewal. achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Regulatory risk On the regulatory front, Travelers are expressing high levels of
airlines could face rising costs of confidence in this commitment, with 84%
compliance, and additional costs pertaining believing it is the right goal, 79% saying that
to passenger rights regimes, regional we will be able to fly sustainably, and 78%
environment initiatives, and accessibility agreeing that aviation leaders are taking the
requirements. climate challenge seriously.

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