W3 Conditional Probability NO CAS - unless question specifies CAS allowed

The probability of 𝐴, given we already know 𝐵 is true (or 𝐵 has already happened)
is written 𝑃𝑟(𝐴|𝐵).
Ex 1. This Venn diagram shows the number of students in 9 P
B
a class that study Physics (𝑃) and/or Biology (𝐵). Find
the probability that a randomly selected student studies 5 4 7
a) Physics, given that they study Biology?
We know the student is studying Biology, so we are only considering the
9 students who are studying Biology. 4 of these students also study
Physics
( ∩ )
∴ 𝑃𝑟(𝑃|𝐵 ) = ← This calculation is
( )

b) Biology, given that they study Physics?

We are only considering the 11 students who are studying Physics. 4 of
these students also study Biology
( ∩ )
∴ 𝑃𝑟(𝐵|𝑃) = ← This calculation is
( )

Conditional Probability Formula

𝑃𝑟(𝐴|𝐵) may be calculated using either the number of things in each category or
the probabilities:
( ∩ ) ( ∩ )
𝑃𝑟(𝐴|𝐵) = or 𝑃𝑟(𝐴|𝐵) =
( ) ( )

( ∩ ) ( ∩ )
In Ex 1b above, 𝑃𝑟(𝐵|𝑃) = or 𝑃𝑟(𝑀|𝑃) =
( ) ( )
= = ÷
= × =
1. In a class of 20 students, 12 study Art, 7 study PE and 4 study both.
a) How many students study neither subject? A P

20 – 15 = 5 8 4 3
5
b) Complete the Venn diagram.
c) Given a student studies Art, what is the probability they
i) also study PE? ii) do not study PE?
𝑃𝑟(𝑃|𝐴) = = 𝑃𝑟(𝑃’|𝐴) = =

F. Mahoney
Conditional Probability Formula
( ∩ )
Probability of 𝐵 given 𝐴 has occurred = 𝑃𝑟(𝐵|𝐴) =
( )
However, it is not always necessary to use the above formula, sometimes you can
think about the problem logically and work the answer out simply.
2. Diya has 2 boxes of pens. Box 1 contains 4 green pens and 2 purple pens. Box
2 contains 4 green and 5 purple pens. Diya chooses a box at random and then
selects a pen.
a) Draw a tree diagram =
G
for this situation. 𝐵
= P

G
𝐵
P
’’
b) Find the probability that the pen Diya selected
i) is green ii) is green given that it came from Box 1
(can you do this without the formula?
Pr(𝐺) = × + ×
It’s not necessary to use the formula, if we know the pen
= + came from Box 1, then we are only considering the 6 pens
in Box 1. 4 of these are green
= ∴ Pr(𝐺|𝐵 ) = =

You get the same result if you use the formula:

( ∩ )
Pr(𝐺|𝐵 )=
( )
×
=

= ÷ = × =

× + × =

iii) came from Box 1, given that it is green.

( ∩ )
Pr(𝐵 |𝐺)=
( )
×
= = ×

F. Mahoney
3. In the month of June the probability of rain on any particular day is . Assume
that rain on any day is independent of pleasant weather on any other day.

If it rains, the probability that Miara will be late for work is , and if the
weather is fine the probability that she will be late is .

a) Draw a tree diagram that can be used to find the probability that Miara will be
late for work for any particular day in June.

L
R
L’

L
R’

L’

b) Find the probability that on a particular morning in June Miara was late for work.

× + × = +
= +
= =

c) Find the probability that on a particular morning in June, it rained, given that
Miara was late for work.
( ∩ )
Pr(𝑃|𝑊) =
( )

×
= = ×

F. Mahoney
4. CAS ALLOWED
A shop buys phones from supplier A and supplier B. of all the shop’s phones
come from supplier A and the rest come from supplier B. of phones from
supplier A have faults. The proportion of faulty phones from supplier B is 𝑝.
a) Draw a tree diagram for this situation.

F
A
F’

𝑝 F
B
1−𝑝 F’

b) Given that an phone came from supplier A, what is the probability that it was
not faulty?

The proportion of all phones bought by the shop that are faulty is .
c) Find the value of 𝑝.
Pr(𝐺) = × + 𝑝=

+ 𝑝= Solve for 𝑝 with CAS

𝑝=

d) Given that an phone is faulty, what is the probability that it came from
supplier B?
( ∩ )
Pr(𝐵|𝐹) =
( )
= × ÷

F. Mahoney