C36 c108 ICMIT2000Arumugam
C36 c108 ICMIT2000Arumugam
Date 2000
URL http://hdl.handle.net/10220/4607
Q1. What is the function of the software to be If the maximum rating for all questions is 3 and the
developed? minimum rating is 1, then the maximum value of R,
Choices: Rmax, is given by Rmax = w1 3+ w2 3+ …+ wi 3+ …+
a. Data processing software w9 3 = 3 (w1+ w2+ …+ wi+ …+ w9). Similarly, the
b. Service software (Communication software) minimum R, Rmin,, is given by Rmin = 1*(w1+ w2+
c. System software …+ wi+ …+ w9). The overall risk level R may then
be normalized as follows:
The risk assessor will pick one of the three choices
based on the nature of the project and the actual Normalized R = Rn= (R - Rmin) / (Rmax - Rmin)
situation. Choice a. is given a risk rating of one,
Choice b. a rating of two and Choice c. a rating of The normalized Rn provides the risk level of the
three. In the above example, system software is assessed project as a fraction between 0 and 1. Rn for
considered the most complex among the three types project with the lowest risk (no risk) is 0 and Rn for
of software as it has to interact with the hardware project with the highest risk is 1. We shall refer to
and facilitates the operation of other types of this normalized value for a project as project risk.
software. Hence a rating of 3 is given if the type of
software to be developed is system software. Data 3.3 Assessment of the Quality, Schedule and Cost
processing software, on the other extreme, only deals risks of a project
with local data and hence is deemed to be the least The level of risk of the project in relation to quality,
complex of the three and hence a rating of 1 is given schedule and cost can also be assessed separately
for this choice. based on the risk element probabilities obtained.
This is done by assigning different weights to the
Due to the scope of this paper, the questionnaire probabilities according to the impact of the
relating to the SRAM is given in Appendix 1 associated risk elements on quality, schedule and
without detailed explanation and justification of the cost respectively.
questions and choices.
For example, if the following table of impact is used,
The risk elements Complexity, Staff, Reliability and
Requirements have highest impact on quality of the are named P1 to P10. The projects are all related to
project hence the largest value of weight (say 3) is to mobile software and degree of impact of the risk
be assigned to the risk element probabilities of these elements on Quality, Schedule and Cost of the
risk elements. Monitoring and Tools have the least projects are similar. A common set of values of
impact on quality and hence the smallest value of weight is used. The values are those given in Table 1
weight (say 1) is to be used. Estimation, with HIGH=3, MEDIUM=2 and LOW=1.
Development Process and Usability have medium
impact on quality and hence the value of weight The overall project risk is obtained by taking the
assigned to the associated risk element probabilities average of the risk values calculated for Quality,
should be values between the two extremes (say 2). Schedule and Cost. These values and the Customer
The normalized value Rn computed using these Feedback Index of all 10 projects are tabulated in
values of weight and the risk element probabilities Table 2.
then gives an indication of the level of risk of the
project in relation to quality. Table 2 Values of Project Risk and Customer
Feedback Index
Table 1: Level of Impact of Risk Element on Project Quality Schedule Cost Overall Customer
Quality, Schedule and Cost Feedback
Risk Elements Quality Schedule Cost Index
Complexity HIGH HIGH HIGH P1 0.633 0.628 0.629 0.63 3
Staff HIGH HIGH HIGH P2 0.130 0.735 0.727 0.53 5
Reliability HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM P3 0.228 0.209 0.217 0.22 10
Requirements HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM P4 0.217 0.197 0.205 0.21 11
Estimation MEDIUM HIGH HIGH P5 0.570 0.571 0.569 0.57 4
Monitoring LOW MEDIUM LOW P6 0.452 0.466 0.470 0.46 6
Development MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM P7 0.505 0.519 0.514 0.51 7
Process P8 0.376 0.399 0.396 0.39 8
Usability MEDIUM LOW LOW P9 0.388 0.384 0.399 0.39 7
Tools LOW LOW LOW P10 0.248 0.244 0.248 0.25 10
Ten projects of a multinational company are used to The Customer Feedback Index is plotted against the
corresponding value of project risk for all 10 projects
calibrate the SRAM. For simplicity, these projects
and is shown in Figure 1. A regression line is drawn 5. TESTING OF THE MODEL
through all the ten points. This line then serves as a The accuracy of prediction of the SRAM is evaluated
calibration chart between overall project risk and by applying the SRAM to ten other projects of
Customer Feedback Index. similar nature. The results are tabulated in Table 3.
From data of the past software projects in the The Predicted Customer Feedback Index is then
company, the Customer Feedback Indices for obtained from the calibration curve of Figure 1 for
unaccepted projects are found to be below 4. The each of the project using the calculated overall
Customer Feedback Indices for projects completed project risk. These are tabulated together with the
with extended schedule, low quality or cost overrun, actual Customer Feedback Indices in Table 4.
are between 4 and 8. The Customer Feedback Indices
for projects completed in time, within budget and Table 4: Comparison of Computed and Actual
according to specifications are between 8 and 12. Customer Feedback Indices
*
Project Predicted Actual Variation
From Figure 1, it can be seen that there is a close Customer Customer
correlation between the project risk value and the Feedback Feedback
Customer Feedback Index. Index Index
P11 6.8 7 +0.2/6.8 = +2.94%
If the risk level of a project assessed by SRAM is
P12 10.8 10 -0.8/Q.108 = -7.41%
above 0.6, the corresponding Customer Feedback
P13 5.8 6 +0.2/5.8 = +3.45%
Index is below 4. This indicates that it a high-risk
project. In this case, it is strongly advised to P14 8.5 9 +0.5/8.5 = +5.88%
discontinue or not to undertake the project. P15 9.4 9 -0.4/9.4 = -4.26%
P16 10.8 10 -0.8/Q.108 = -7.41%
If the risk level of a project assessed by SRAM is P17 11.4 11 -0.4/Q.114 = -3.51%
between 0.36 and 0.6, the corresponding Customer P18 9.7 10 +0.3/9.7 = +3.09%
Feedback Index is between 8 and 4. It is necessary to P19 7.9 8 +0.1/7.9 = +1.27%
reduce the likelihood and impact of the risk elements P20 7.6 7 -0.6/7.6 = -7.9%
through immediate risk containment procedures. The
project manager shall identify the weak areas that Variation listed in the table is defined as the
require urgent attention and resources. percentage of deviation of the actual Customer
Feedback Index varies from the Predicted Customer
If the risk level of a project assessed by SRAM is Feedback Index.
below 0.36, the corresponding Customer Feedback
Index is above 8, the project is a low risk project and The mean value of Variation is 0.9% and the
the chances of success are high. standard deviation is 5.0%. Results show that the
project risk value is able to predict reasonably well
Table 3: Values of Project Risk the Customer Feedback Index.
Project Quality Schedule Cost Overall
P11 0.444 0.433 0.435 0.437 6. CONCLUSION
P12 0.201 0.216 0.219 0.212 A new model for the assessment of risk of software
P13 0.485 0.488 0.484 0.486 projects, the Software Risk Assessment Model
P14 0.34 0.328 0.322 0.33 (SRAM), is described. The model focuses on nine
P15 0.285 0.282 0.283 0.283 risk elements and makes use of a set of questionnaire
P16 0.210 0.208 0.204 0.207 relating to these risk elements.
P17 0.168 0.161 0.159 0.163
P18 0.255 0.266 0.264 0.262 The risk levels of individual risk element may be
P19 0.364 0.373 0.366 0.368 computed. The model also allows levels of risk
P20 0.377 0.393 0.380 0.383 associated with Quality, Schedule and Cost of a
project to be calculated separately.