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19 views6 pages

Feeding-10-Billion (1)

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ayseay19701970
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We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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FEEDING 10 BILLION

background reading | food and agriculture unit

Studies For Our Global Future

One of the greatest challenges facing our growing population is how we will feed the nearly 10 billion people
expected by the middle of this century. As our global family expands by 2 to 3 billion in less than 30 years, experts
anticipate food production will need to increase by at least 50 percent.1 This would be to accommodate both
the growing number of people and their changing diets across the globe. At the same time, climate change is
beginning to affect every aspect of food production, creating a lot of uncertainty about the world’s ability to meet
future food needs.

Food insecurity – the state of being without reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, nutritious food –
is not just a potential problem for the future. In 2020, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported
that close to 800 million people were chronically hungry and over 2 billion suffered micronutrient deficiencies
(a lack of essential vitamins and minerals required for proper growth and development).2 The reasons for food
insecurity are varied and most often tied to poverty. While there is sufficient food grown globally to feed the
current world population, it is not distributed evenly. Access to sufficient, nutritious food is a problem for people
who live in areas with civil conflicts, unstable economies or where changing weather patterns have impaired
crop production. In some parts of the world, food insecurity has reached crisis levels, as in Ethiopia, Madagascar,
South Sudan and Yemen, now at risk of famine. Food insecurity is also a fact of life for the millions of the world’s
refugees, displaced from their homelands.

The FAO estimates that healthy diets are unaffordable for 3 billion people around the world, including those
living in low-income and low-access areas in some of the world’s wealthiest countries. In Northern America (U.S.
and Canada), nearly 30 million people are considered to be food insecure, many of whom reside in food deserts,
locations with limited access to grocery stores.3 The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated food insecurity in
nearly every country due to lost income and disruptions in food supply chains.

Our agricultural footprint


Feeding present and future generations
requires a balancing act of producing
more food, but doing it sustainably in a
way that doesn’t cause environmental
harm. Our agricultural footprint is already
large. We’ve cleared an area the size
of South America to grow crops and an
area the size of Africa to raise livestock.4
That amounts to about 40 percent of
all the ice-free land on the planet, and
this agricultural expansion over the
decades has often come at the expense of
entire ecosystems, like North American
prairies and tropical rainforests. In fact,
agriculture is the dominant driver of
tropical deforestation, and thus, a major
cause of wildlife extinction. Agriculture
is also a thirsty industry, accounting for 70 percent of all the water that is withdrawn from lakes, rivers and
aquifers.5 Groundwater sources are being rapidly depleted in an effort to grow more food.
© 2021 POPULATION CONNECTION
Agriculture’s ecological footprint extends beyond the
water used and the land converted. The byproducts of mass
producing food also impacts the environment. One-quarter
of all greenhouse gas emissions – more than those pumped
out of all the world’s cars, trucks, trains and planes – are
generated from agricultural production.6 That’s a combination
of methane released from cattle and rice farms, nitrous
oxide from fertilizers used on fields and carbon dioxide from
clearing rainforests for cropland and grazing areas. The runoff
from croplands – chemical fertilizers, pesticides and manure –
wash into lakes, rivers and coastal waters, further disrupting
sensitive ecosystems.

A growing demand for chemical-free produce in the United


States and the European Union has led to a rapidly expanding
Source: WRI, 2016
business in organic farming. Although the definition of
“organic” varies from country to country, use of more
sustainable farming practices has increased across the globe. Between 1999 and 2019, the amount of agricultural
land used for organic farming grew more than six-fold, as has the global market for organic produce.7 Though still
a small share of all global agriculture, organic farming has shown steady growth in most parts of the world.

Much of the agricultural expansion we’ve seen in recent decades has been in response to changing diets around
the world, rather than in an effort to promote food security. With the increased wealth of consumers in rapidly
developing economies, like China and India, has come a greater demand for meat and dairy products. As a result,
more land is being converted for grazing livestock and for growing animal feed. In fact, over one-third of the
global grain production is fed to animals.8 Only a fraction of the calories in that animal feed actually winds up on
people’s dining tables. According to Jonathan Foley, Executive Director of Project Drawdown, “for every 100
calories of grain we feed animals, we get only about 40 new calories of milk, 22 calories of eggs, 12 calories of
chicken, 10 calories of pork, or 3 calories of beef.”9 Because of this inefficient feed-to-food conversion, more
people could be fed eating lower on the food chain (more fruits, vegetables and grains) and with smaller portions
of animal proteins. “The world’s
farmers currently produce enough
calories to feed 9 billion people a
healthy, mostly vegetarian diet,”
writes environmental journalist
Joel Bourne.10 Unfortunately, these
calories are not produced in a way to
make them accessible to our current
7.8 billion people.

In addition to feeding livestock, an


increasing amount of our cropland is
now used for growing biofuels. This
adds to the world’s acreage that is
already devoted to non-nutritional
crops, such as coffee, tobacco
and cotton, that are of important
economic value but don’t contribute
to feeding a growing population.
© 2021 POPULATION CONNECTION food and agriculture unit | FEEDING 10 BILLION 2
Gone to waste
According to the UN Environment Program, roughly 30-40 percent of food grown globally is lost to waste. In
less developed countries, this is mainly due to a lack of adequate storage to keep food fresh before it gets to
consumers. In India, for example, up to 40 percent of fresh produce goes bad because neither the wholesale
nor retail outlets have cold storage. 11 Even crops that don’t need cold storage, like rice, can be lost to pests and
spoilage.

In more developed countries, food waste mostly occurs at homes and at the retail level (grocery stores,
restaurants and other food services). Because food is relatively cheap in countries like the U.S., there are fewer
incentives to prevent waste. As a result, stores discard produce that is edible but not perfect (like bruised fruit),
and restaurants often serve overly large portions which encourage waste. If the food waste was composted for
fertilizer or fed animals, it could still be put to good use in the food chain. But more often, this food waste winds
up in the regular garbage, headed toward the landfill.

Losing farmland
At the same time that we look to increase crop yields and reduce food waste, we have the added challenge of
preserving valuable farmland that is being lost to urban growth and soil erosion. As global population grows by
over 80 million people each year, there is increased demand for all sorts of infrastructure that requires land –
homes, industry, commercial areas, roads, utilities, and more. The planet is rapidly urbanizing and some of this
urban growth is taking farmland out of production.

© 2021 POPULATION CONNECTION food and agriculture unit | FEEDING 10 BILLION 3


Soil degradation also reduces the area of land available for agriculture. The most common cause of soil
degradation is erosion, the carrying away by wind and water of the thin layer of topsoil which holds all the
nutrients necessary to grow crops. It is estimated that one-third of the world’s arable land was lost to soil
erosion and pollution from 1975 to 2015.12 Overgrazing, deforestation, agricultural mismanagement, and
overharvesting of fuelwood frequently cause erosion. These activities, in turn, are frequently the result of
poverty and the unequal distribution of land. As population growth increases the demand for land, poor farmers
are forced to work marginal land, such as hillsides and land cut from tropical forests, which erodes easily.
Researchers at the University of Sheffield report that erosion is occurring at a pace of up to 100 times greater
than the rate of soil formation.13 It takes about 500 years to create just one inch of topsoil.

Increased irrigation, which has allowed for greater crop production in past years, is also a cause of cropland
damage. Whereas rainwater is essentially distilled, irrigation water contains salts which are left in the topsoil
upon evaporation. This process, called salinization, reduces crop yields on 50 percent of the irrigated land area
worldwide.14

Will technology save us?


So how will we feed 10 billion people? Many
look to breakthroughs in agricultural science
and technology to save the day. Historically,
they point to the Green Revolution of the
20th century as a model. In the 1960s, world
population was growing at its fastest rate in
human history and there was concern that the
food supply wouldn’t keep up in this race for
humanity’s future. An all-out effort to increase
food yields, especially in Asia where population
was growing the fastest, mobilized scientists.

Norman Borlaug, an American biologist, was


one of the heroes of the Green Revolution.
Photo Credit: mustafagull/istockphoto.com

Tomatoes grow in a greenhouse in the Netherlands. He developed hybrid varieties of common


grains to use water and nutrients more
efficiently and to resist disease. For these achievements, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970. From
the 1960s through the 1990s, yields of rice and wheat in Asia doubled, creating food security for hundreds of
millions of people. The Green Revolution also heralded an age of intensive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides
and irrigation. We have since witnessed the downside to these practices – toxic runoff in waterways, wildlife
endangerment and the unsustainable use of water.

Scientists are continuing to experiment with cross-breeding crop varieties to get desired traits like tolerance
to droughts, floods or pests, or to increase their nutrient value. Since the 1990s, agronomists have also been
using genetic modification (GM) to produce crops with desired traits. With GM, genes identified in one species
can be transferred directly to an unrelated species, giving it an entirely new trait, such as resistance to a pest or
higher nutritional value. For example, scientists have developed a nutrient-enhanced rice using genes from corn.
This “golden rice,” as it is known, was developed to produce beta-carotene (the vitamin found in many yellow
vegetables) to combat Vitamin A deficiency, which causes over one million deaths each year and half a million
cases of blindness in less developed countries.

© 2021 POPULATION CONNECTION food and agriculture unit | FEEDING 10 BILLION 4


Most of the corn, cotton and soybeans grown in
the United States today are GM crops. A study
from the U.S. Department of Agriculture makes the
environmental case for planting GM varieties, showing
that pesticide use has been reduced significantly since
the introduction of Bt corn which contains genes
from a bacterium that help it ward off pests.15 The use
of GM crops is not universally accepted around the
world, though. In Europe and much of Africa, debates
on the potential safety of GMs for human health and
the environment have deterred their use. At present,
only a handful of countries – U.S., Brazil, Argentina,
Canada, and India – grow 90 percent of the world’s
GM crops.16 Arguments against GM crops focus on
the potential threats to public health including the
production of new allergens and antibiotic resistance.

The climate wild card


Even with the potential for new technologies to grow more food, we are still facing an uncertain future for
farmers in terms of our changing climate. We are already seeing more evidence of weather patterns affecting
agriculture – prolonged droughts, damaging floods and heat waves. According to researchers at Cornell and the
University of Maryland, global farming productivity is 21 percent lower than it could have been without climate
change over the past 60 years.17 Recent droughts in some of the world’s largest grain-producing countries,
including the United States and Brazil, have diminished yields and sent food prices soaring.

Spikes in food prices disproportionately affect the poorest people, those who already live in food-insecure
regions. Regions where population is expected to rise the most this century, especially Sub-Saharan Africa,
are also the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change on food supply. “Increased hunger is likely to be
one of climate change’s most savage impacts on humanity,” cautions Oxfam International, a nongovernmental
organization that has been working to alleviate poverty and hunger around the world.18

A sustainable future
If we hope to feed present and future generations, we must commit ourselves to sustainable agricultural
practices. Sustainable agriculture means using the land in such a way as to safeguard its natural productive
capacity for generations to come. It is not enough to focus on the most efficient and profitable way to grow food
today. Ensuring that an ample amount of land will remain for tomorrow's food supply must also be our concern.
For example, destroying rainforest to create cropland provides productive land for only a few years before topsoil
erodes. Leaving the rainforests intact and harvesting renewable products, such as fruits and nuts, insures a steady
stream of produce indefinitely.

With such finite cropland, we must use this precious resource judiciously. Crop diversification, moderate
irrigation and responsible land management are just a few ways to produce food more sustainably. Eating a wide
variety of foods and not depending heavily on animal products will allow us to use land more efficiently to feed
more people. Better distribution of available food is also essential in preventing mass starvation in low-income
countries.
© 2021 POPULATION CONNECTION food and agriculture unit | FEEDING 10 BILLION 5
Among the top priorities for the UN’s Sustainable
Development Goals is “Zero Hunger by 2030”
(SDG #2). In addition to supporting sustainable
agricultural practices, the UN hopes to meet that
goal by supporting small-scale farmers and allowing
equal access to agricultural lands, new technologies
and markets. This will also require an investment in
the infrastructure that enables reliable agricultural
production, such as sustainable soil and water
management.19

And, of course, steps to meet the world’s food Photo Credit: Stefano Lubiana/flickr.com

needs are made more difficult the larger the human Example of multiple cropping: fava beans and grapes planted in alternating
population grows. Demographers now expect global rows in a vineyard in Tasmania.
population to grow to 10 to 11 billion before leveling
off sometime in the next century.20 Stabilizing population size sooner – through education and access to modern
family planning – could buy humanity more time to produce enough food for all.

1
Searchinger, T., et. al. (2019, July). Creating A Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050. World Resources Institute.
Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future
2,3
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2020. In Brief to The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. Transforming food systems for food security,
improved nutrition and affordable healthy diets for all. Rome, FAO; https://doi.org/10.4060/cb5409en
4,9
Foley, J. (2014, May). A five-step plan to feed the world. National Geographic. Washington, DC: National Geographic Society.
5
Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Lipinski, B, Waite, R., Winterbottom, R., . . . Heimlich, R. (2013, December). Creating a sustainable food future.
World Resources Report 2013-2016. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
6
Poore, J. and Nemecek, T. (2018, June 1). Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers. Science. Vol. 360, Issue 6392, pp. 987-
992. Retrieved from https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6392/987
7
Willer, H., Trávníček, J., Meier, C., and Schlatter, B. (eds.). (2021). The World of Organic Agriculture Statistics and Emerging Trends 2021. Research Institute of
Organic Agriculture FiBL and IFOAM – Organics International.
8
Cassidy, E.S., et. al. (2013, August 1). Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare. Environmental Research Letters. 8.
Retrieved from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034015
10
Bourne, J. K. (2016). The End of Plenty: The Race to Feed a Crowded World. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
11
Nellemann, C. (2009, February 17). The Environmental Food Crisis: The Environment’s Role in Averting Future Food Crises. Arendal, Norway: UNEP.
Milman, O. (2015, December 2). Earth has lost a third of arable land in past 40 years, scientists say. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.
12,13

theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/arable-land-soil-food-security-shortage
14
Agricultural Research Service. (2019, May 21). Frequently Asked Questions About Salinity. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Retrieved August 4, 2021 from
https://www.ars.usda.gov/pacific-west-area/riverside-ca/agricultural-water-efficiency-and-salinity-research-unit/docs/about/frequently-asked-questions-
about-salinity/
15
Folger, T. and Cutler, P. B. (2014). The Next Green Revolution. National Geographic. Retrieved from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/
green-revolution/
16
ISAAA. 2019. Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2019. ISAAA Brief No. 55. ISAAA: Ithaca, NY.
17
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Toby R. Ault, Carlos M. Carrillo, Robert G. Chambers, David B. Lobell. Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural
productivity growth. Nature Climate Change, 11, 306–312 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1
18
Carty, T. (2012, September). Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices: The costs of feeding a warming world. Oxfam Issue Briefing. [PDF]. Cambridge, UK: Oxfam
International.
19
United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). The 17 Goals. United Nations Development Programme. Retrieved August 3, 2021 from https://sdgs.
un.org/goals
United Nations DESA/Population Division. (2019). World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision. Retrieved August 4, 2021 from https://population.un.org/
20

wpp/

© 2021 POPULATION CONNECTION food and agriculture unit | FEEDING 10 BILLION 6

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