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Decision Making in
Police Enquiries and
Critical Incidents
What Really Works?
Edited by
Mark Roycroft
Jason Roach
Decision Making in Police Enquiries
and Critical Incidents
 Mark Roycroft · Jason Roach
Editors

Decision Making in
Police Enquiries and
Critical Incidents
What Really Works?
Editors
Mark Roycroft Jason Roach
Open University Applied Criminology and Policing
Milton Keynes, UK Centre
University of Huddersfield
Huddersfield, UK

ISBN 978-1-349-95846-7 ISBN 978-1-349-95847-4 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95847-4

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018958599

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer
Nature Limited 2019
The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identified as the author(s) of this work
in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction
on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
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now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and
information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication.
Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied,
with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have
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Cover illustration: © Melisa Hasan

This Palgrave Pivot imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Limited
The registered company address is: The Campus, 4 Crinan Street, London, N1 9XW,
United Kingdom
 Contents

1 Why Understanding Police Investigative Decision

Making Is Important 1
Mark Roycroft

2 History of Decision-Making 15
Mark Roycroft

3 Good Practice Solving Factors 35

Mark Roycroft

4 Innate Reasoning and Critical Incident Decision-Making 47

Robin Bryant

5 How a Major Incident Room Operates and the

Management of Critical Incidents Ex DCI Harland
N Yorks Police 69
Adam Harland

6 ‘The Making of an Expert Detective’—A European

Perspective: Comparing Decision-Making in Norway
and UK 83
Ivar Fahsing

v
vi    Contents

7 The Task Is Greater Than the Title: Professionalising

the Role of the Senior Investigating Officer
in Homicide Investigations 107
Declan Donnelly and Adrian West

8 The Retrospective Detective: Cognitive Bias and the

Cold Case Investigation 129
Jason Roach

9 Conclusions 151
Mark Roycroft

Appendix 1: Decision Making Book 157

Appendix 2: Management Style 159

Glossary 2018 161

References 163

Index 167
 Notes on Contributors

Prof. Robin Bryant is Director of Research and Knowledge exchange

within the Department of Law and Criminal Justice at Canterbury Christ
Church University. The Department carries out various funded research
activities within the criminal justice sector. His research interests include
the investigative decision making employed by detectives and he is an
external examiner for a number of Universities in the UK on Policing
and Criminology programmes. He has published books and journals on
investigation and police training. He has published and presented widely
on investigative theory.
Read more at https://www.canterbury.ac.uk/social-and-applied-
sciences/law-criminal-justice-and-computing/staff/Profile.aspx?staff=
bb4c23af295d4844#tGqgyheqm8Ej08KM.99.
Declan Donnelly is a retired Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) detec-
tive superintendent. He served 32 years in the MPS, of which 28 were
as a detective. In 1998, he was seconded to the National Crime Faculty
at the National Police Staff College as part of a small National team to
devise and develop the first National SIO development course. He has
investigated a wide range of serious crime including homicide inves-
tigations as a senior investigating officer. Following the 2001 ‘world
trade centre’ terrorist attack as staff officer to the Deputy Assistant
Commissioner Security, he helped co-ordinate the MPS response. In
2008, he was seconded to the Royal Cayman Islands Police Service to
write and develop their policy in relation to Professional Standards. As a

vii
viii    Notes on Contributors

police officer, he has attained an LLB (Hons) and an M.Sc. in Forensic

and Legal Psychology. On retirement, he became Director of Regulation
for the Greyhound Board of Great Britain and was responsible for
reforming the response to regulation and welfare. He is now studying
full time at Anglia Ruskin University for a Ph.D. researching the factors
influencing decision making by SIOs in cases of stranger homicide.
Ivar Fahsing is a Detective Superintendent of the Norwegian Police
Service and an assistant professor at the Norwegian Police University in
Oslo. He has served with Oslo Police’s murder squad and KRIPOS, the
section dealing with national organised and serious crime. He has pub-
lished books on organised crime and police investigation. He teaches
investigative techniques and forensic psychology at the Norwegian Police
University. His Ph.D. was entitled the “Expert Detective” and he has
researched investigative decision making.
Adam Harland grew up in London, before joining the Metropolitan
Police in 1983. Educated at Haberdashers Aske’s, Elstree and Downing
College, Cambridge, he has a further postgraduate degree in Policing
Studies from Exeter University. Subsequently moving to Yorkshire, he
has specialised in investigation of fraud, homicide and conduct in public
office for more than 20 years. Since retiring as a senior detective he has
continued to assist and direct major enquiries and currently heads a joint
force ‘Cold Case’ team. Unsurprisingly, he remains in ‘God’s Country’
with his wife and reportedly grown up children.
Jason Roach is the Director of the Applied Criminology and Policing
Centre at the University of Huddersfield, the Editor of the Police
Journal, and a Chartered Psychologist. Jason has worked in an aca-
demic setting for the past 15 years and has previously worked for the
UK Home Office and for various Mental Health Services in the North of
England. He has published research on a wide-range of topics including;
investigative decision making, terrorism, cold-case homicides, and evolu-
tionary psychology and crime, and has also co-authored three books with
Prof. Ken Pease, the most recent being Self-Selection Policing, in 2016.
His main area of research expertise is with police and offender decision
making, particularly with regard to the commission and investigation of
violent crime, including preventing and investigating child homicide, and
the self-selection policing approach to identifying active, serious crimi-
nals, from the minor crimes they commit.
 Notes on Contributors    ix

Dr. Mark Roycroft is a Senior Lecturer at the Open University and he

has lectured on terrorism, organised crime, criminology and investigative
theory. He was formerly a Police officer for 30 years in the Metropolitan
Police Service with postings in homicide teams, counterterrorism and
criminal intelligence. He undertook a Fulbright scholarship to America
in 2001 to research major investigations in the United States. His Ph.D.
looked at the solving factors in 166 murder cases and the decision making
involved by Senior Investigators. He has published a book on Police Chiefs
in the UK having interviewed 89 Chief Constables, PCCs and heads of
Policing agencies. He has written articles on investigative issues, private
policing and extremism along with the history of rape investigations.
Adrian West is Adjunct Professor at the Liverpool Centre for Advanced
Policing Studies, Liverpool John Moore’s University. He is a Forensic
Clinical Psychologist who has advised the Police Service on major crime
investigations for many years. He has advocated and pressed for more
intensive training, examination and qualification for the role of Senior
Investigating Officer for a long time.
 List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Skills of the SIO 27

Fig. 3.1 Full decision model 44
Fig. 8.1 Investigator confidence in different types of homicide
investigation 138

xi
 List of Tables

Table 2.1 Table of recommendations and themes identified

from inquiries 18
Table 3.1 Frequency with which strategies and tactics used 40
Table 6.1 Tipping-points in frequency of mentioned in interviews
(N = 35) 88
Table 6.2 Mean proportion of generated gold-standard hypotheses
and investigative actions as a function of country,
experience, and presence of tipping-point 92
Table 8.1 Investigative differences in live and cold homicide
investigations 139

xiii
 List of Boxes

Box 8.1 Investigator confidence and the passing of time since a

homicide (% confident that a successful outcome
will be achieved) 141
Box 8.2 Framing effects and investigator confidence 142

xv
 CHAPTER 1

Why Understanding Police Investigative

Decision Making Is Important

Mark Roycroft

Abstract This chapter sets out the format and content of the book.
The author describes Police decision making and evaluates the char-
acteristics of decision making. Police decision making is now more
accountable than ever before and current police decision making practice
is discussed. The National Decision Model used by the Police is intro-
duced. Police officers of all ranks have to record their decision mak-
ing and the golden hour tactics are described for those arriving at an
incident.

Keywords Police decison making · Evaluating police decision making ·

Accountability · Solvability factors · Heuristics

M. Roycroft (*)
Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s) 2019 1

M. Roycroft and J. Roach (eds.),
Decision Making in Police Enquiries and Critical Incidents,
https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95847-4_1
2 M. ROYCROFT

If you put a step wrong in one of these big cases, you will be guilty for
Hell freezing over. (Sarah Payne, mother of murdered schoolgirl Sara
Payne, 2006)1

Human decision making is a complex phenomenon influenced to vary-

ing degrees by a plethora of different variables present at any one given
moment. What leads to making a specific decision is often (but not
always) influenced, for example, by various contextual, situational, per-
sonality, experience and levels of knowledge factors, to name but few. If
one considers how evolution has bestowed us humans not simply with
brains capable of instant decision making, often referred to as “system
one thinking” or “intuition” (e.g. Kahneman 2011) but, should we wish,
an ability to engage in more deliberate and thoughtful “system two”
decision making (Kahneman 2011), considered “rational thought” by
some, for example, whether to follow the satnav directions to the letter,
or to ignore its help and follow your own sense of direction and is con-
sistently responsible for the second writer arriving late at most meetings.
With all this noise, understanding how decision making occurs is highly
complex and far from an exact science and is exemplified no better than
when attempting to study decision making in an occupation as com-
plex as policing. The modern police officer, for example, has to contend
with a range of concerns before making a decision. The decision mak-
ing process can be influenced by a unique blend of legal, moral and pro-
cedural demands, mixed with community expectations and the reality of
the resources available to them. Every police officer has to make a mul-
titude of decisions on a daily basis, some will be minor and routine and
relatively inconsequential, but some will be life-changing or life-saving for
officer, public or both, irrespective of rank or role. The First officer at
a crime scene, for example, must decide how to best preserve evidence
which could lead to a conviction, then later may be called to attend a crit-
ical incident such as a suspected arson, before helping to defuse a violent
situation and all in a day’s work. Google “what’s an unpredictable job”
and police officer will most likely be in the top ten answers offered.
The central question on which this book rests is simply: are police
decision makers different from other decision makers in what might be
considered to be high risk “critical” (often life or death) situations, for
example, hospital doctors, firefighters and soldiers, and if so how do they
generally make, and what do they base, investigative decisions in what

1 Our thanks to our friend, Howard Atkin, for pointing out this quotation to us.
 1 WHY UNDERSTANDING POLICE INVESTIGATIVE … 3

are termed “critical incidents”? In order to suitably explore this ques-

tion, we seek to identify what investigative and investigator decision
making might be, along with the major internal and external features
which influence police investigative decision making in critical incident
situations. We seek to shed some light on what Agatha Christie’s famous
fictional Belgian Detective, Hercule Poirot, refers to as “the little grey
cells”, but really relates to how police investigators make decisions in
critical (in Poirot’s sense murder) investigations.
The independent nature of the police officers decision making was
highlighted in a 1955 legal case where Viscount Simmons (Attorney
General -v- New South Wales Perpetual Trustees Co [1955] AC 457)
stated that a constable is an officer whose “authority is original, not dele-
gated, and is exercised at their own discretion by virtue of their office”.
Arguably, police officers still have a large degree of autonomy in the
decisions that they make, for example, whether to give a ticket to some-
one driving a car with a faulty tail-light or to simply point it out to the
driver and accept their promise that they will get it fixed as soon as pos-
sible. This is often referred to as “officer discretion”, although some
would argue that that the abundance of police guidance and procedures
in recent years have all but eroded the space for officer discretion, it is a
debate for another day and not visited here. We will content ourselves in
this book simply to explore wider decision making involved in criminal
investigations and other critical incidents.
What factors influence police decision making have long been debated
and include environmental factors, legal restraints, organisational factors,
politics and situational factors to name but few. Sir Robert Mark, the
Metropolitan Police Commissioner opined in his 1978 autobiography
that every senior officer has five masters:

1. The criminal law

2. The police authority (now the Police and Crime Commissioners)
3. The staff that they command
4. The public of their district
5. His/her conscience.

Although published in the last century (1978) it can be argued that the
five “masters” still stands as an accurate reflection on which the police
chief (and any officer) is responsible to.
In more extreme cases, police officers will have little choice but to
decide on the “least bad” option in dealing with a critical incident, for
4 M. ROYCROFT

example, with a suspected suicide bomber. In the murder case of Becky

Godden in Gloucestershire in 2011, for example, the senior detec-
tive in charge of the case took the decision to proceed with the suspect
(Haliwell) despite not cautioning him first. As a consequence of his
actions he then found another victim’s body, but at court he was crit-
icised for not giving adequate cautions under the Police and Criminal
Evidence Act 1984 to the suspect, Haliwell. Bizarrely, the second mur-
der case was dismissed at court. The Senior Investigating Officer (SIO)
in this case decided that the benefits outweighed the disadvantages
despite legal guidance. Police decision making relies on professional
judgement backed by training and legal constraints.
Retired DCI Steve Driscoll (BBC Stephen Lawrence programme,
transmitted 19 April 2018) stated that he “cleared the ground” when
he took over the investigation in 2009. This entails thoroughly retrac-
ing the steps of the previous investigations and ensuring all avenues of
investigation have been exhausted before commencing on new lines of
enquiry. The original murder investigation began in April 1993. DCI
Driscoll found statements and read through them all and found that the
original contact between the suspects and the victim was longer than first
thought. He then asked the Forensic Laboratory to reinvestigate certain
exhibits and he succeeding in acquiring enough evidence for a retrial of
the 2 of the suspects who were found guilty and sentenced in 2012. By
“double checking” every available piece of investigation, DCI Driscoll
was able to launch a fresh examination of the forensic material which
acted as a catalyst to the investigation.
West and Donnelly in Chapter 7 talk of the acquisition of knowledge
and good coppering’ versus human factors, they too talk of timeliness
along with the phases and pressures of homicide investigation today. They
talk of “getting a grip of the investigation” (pp. 117 and 118 of Chapter 7),
a complaint made by the (Flanagan) HMIC report into the running of
the investigation into the murder of Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman
in Soham in 2002. Stuart Kirby in his book “Effective Policing” (2015)
discusses the principle of “clearing the ground beneath your feet “in an
investigation (p. 108). This issue arose in both the Soham murders and
the hunt for schoolgirl Milly Dowler’s murderer, Levi Bellfield, in Surrey.
Kirby suggests three main issues raised by both investigations:

1. Management of information
2. Prioritisation of leads
3. “Lack of grip” of the investigation
 1 WHY UNDERSTANDING POLICE INVESTIGATIVE … 5

All arguably illustrate the flawed decision making inherent in the two
cases highlighted.
The main purpose of this book is to identify and explore some of
the common characteristics of police decision making in major enquires
and critical incidents. Lawrence Sherman (1998) notes the importance
of “evidence-based policing” by emphasising the fact that there is little
empirical evidence to guide most policing practices—at least this was
the case back in 1998. Research on the decision making of criminal
investigators is however at best “emergent” and at worst neglected,
has tended to focus on particular aspects of the investigative process
such as “interviewing suspects and witnesses”, detective’s “intuition”
(e.g. Wright 2013) or how different forms of “cognitive bias” includ-
ing; confirmation bias (e.g. Rossmo 2009; Stelfox and Pease 2005),
“framing effects” (e.g. Roach and Pease 2009) and “tunnel vision”
(e.g. Rossmo 2009), can have a negative effect on the decision making
of investigating officers in homicide investigations. The book’s depar-
ture is that it seeks to examine the different stages and types of decision
making within enquires and police critical incidents and to gently probe
the decision making styles of police officers in an overall attempt to
shed-light on how decision-processes work in different critical incident
contexts, and not just homicide investigations. (including counterter-
rorism operations).
Like their predecessors, the modern police officer has to comply
with legal statute, Human Rights legislation and the media and ponder
whether their actions are necessary and proportionate. Criminal investi-
gation continues to evolve through legislation and case law along with
procedural developments and scientific and technical developments have
increased the range of material that is now available to SIO. Procedural
developments have come about through the lessons learned from public
enquires, coroners’ inquests, trials and internal reviews. All adding to the
complexity of police decision making and we haven’t even mentioned the
advent of the internet and social media yet!
There is of course no known system of decision making which guar-
antees infallibility—well not in human beings (homo sapiens) anyway.
Optimal decision making often necessitates taking risks even when
reasoning to the most likely outcome, which Robin Bryant discusses
more fully in Chapter 4. To avoid risk does not ensure success. The
police investigator is relied upon to exercise judgment and discretion
6 M. ROYCROFT

in their decision making, for example, simply shaking the usual sus-
pect tree or raiding a housing estate to round up the “usual suspects”,
without due thought about the possible/probable consequences, could
have unwanted repercussions, including re-enforcing local mistrust
and dislike of police, estrangement from the local community, and lead
to justifiable claims of human rights abuses. This can be assisted by
rigorous training and high professional standards supported by
accountability mechanisms such as the IPCC and HMIC. The police
differ from other professions in that they have little time for deliber-
ation in critical incidents. The police face unique decision making
environments which encompass rapidly changing conditions. Chaotic
conditions can often create difficulty for police officers in prioritis-
ing the direction, type, intensity, and pace of the actions they take to
effectively control a critical incident or live investigation. Mullins et al.
(2008) proposed a preliminary model with the key factors most likely
to influence police decision making within murder investigations. This
took into consideration the decision environment, the decision maker
and the decision bases. In drafting this model the authors were includ-
ing the “individual characteristics of the SIO, the type of investiga-
tion, the media and the basis of particular decisions (from intuition to
evidence)”.
We have seen a vast increase in the transparency of police decision
making and the need for police officers of all ranks to justify, record
and explain their decision making, particularly Senior Investigating
Officer’s recording of all decisions they make in specific investiga-
tion logs. This move has been heavily influenced by legislation, high-
profile reviews such as the Macpherson report and the increased remit
and reach of organisations such as the IOPC (Independent Office for
Police Conduct, formally known as the Independent Police Complaints
Commission).2 The list of accountability bodies also includes the
courts, the media and public inquires such as the Hillsborough
inquiry. Roycroft’s recent book on Chief Constable’s (Roycroft 2016)
suggests that although it is right and proper that police officers face
scrutiny, the level of scrutiny has increased too dramatically over the
last decade.

2 https://www.policeconduct.gov.uk/.
 1 WHY UNDERSTANDING POLICE INVESTIGATIVE … 7

About This Book

In defence of our credentials for producing a book such as this, one of
us has had a career full of first-hand experience of making investigative
decisions in many different types of critical incidents, whereas the other
has only spent approximately half a career’s worth of time observing
and researching such decision making in serious cases but of course with
the added luxury of having no responsibility for getting these decisions
correct. The contributors to this book represent a similar mix of police
practitioners and seasoned academic researchers, all with shedding light
on decision making in criminal investigations and critical incidents in
common, but all with different stories and perspectives to share.
This book sets out to develop the understanding of these decision
making processes. Separate chapters will look at decision making in cold
cases (Chapter 8),

1. Is the thinking and decision making required in all types of

homicide investigation exactly the same? Then if not,
2. Do significant differences exist in the investigation of live, historic
and ‘cold’ case homicide investigations, and are these subject to
different types and degrees of cognitive bias?

The decision making in managing major enquires (Chapter 3) Cold

case enquires (Chapter 8) and homicide investigations (Chapter 5) are
explored. Ivar Fahsing’s Chapter 6 on investigative tipping-points of
Norwegian detectives provides an international perspective on investiga-
tive decision making in homicide investigations.
The common assumption that all investigations require the same
thinking, propagated by investigation guides such as the Murder
Investigation Manual, is challenged by Harland in Chapter 5 who talks
of “timeliness” being a key-factor while Roach in Chapter 8, suggests
how confirmation bias and framing, can influence the decision making of
the cold case investigator. What Stelfox (2009: 64) describes as adopting
the correct “investigative mindset” (also adopted by the ACPO Murder
Manual 2002) is also questioned here and the development of hypothe-
ses in different policing incidents explored in this book.
In Chapter 9, Roycroft and Roach talk of the solvability factors which
often lead to the successful resolution of a case. They argue that these are
largely dependent on successful decision making by the senior detective
8 M. ROYCROFT

especially those who monitor the “phasing “aspect of enquires. The con-
tinual review process is one described in later chapters. The essential skill
of continuous review, perhaps on an hourly basis in the original sequence
of events of a critical incident can determine and shape the investigative
process. As seen in the Stephen Lawrence murder cases and in Rotherham
(see Jay Report 2017) if and when investigations go awry they can affect
that forces reputation for a generation. Indeed, the management of
risk was exposed as a key theme in these investigations and subsequent
reviews. Part of the police decision maker’s role is to recognise the risk
and take appropriate action to deal with it (see Foucault and Anscoff, p. 7,
re-risk assessment). Roycroft et al. (2007: 148–162) commented after
looking at the socio-historic development of major investigations that

looking across the historical pattern overall, it does seem that at particu-
lar historical moments certain high profile major crime investigations come
to be seen as problematic in some fashion (i.e. achieve some measure of
amplification). Then the conduct of the investigation itself is enquired
into, either through a de facto public enquiry, with the result that some
reform in policing practices is recommended.

The reputational damage to police forces and the impact on victims and
their families following faulty decision making is considerable with the
repercussions lasting decades-the tragedy at Hillsborough in the 1980s
serves as testament.
This book will explore some of the psychology behind decision mak-
ing and the attributes of a good decision maker, along with an examina-
tion of the decision making process. In Chapter 4, Bryant states that

Judgment involves reasoning in practical, non-abstract circumstances and

gives rise to action and hence in police critical decision-making is of par-
ticular importance. However, sound (valid and reliable) reasoning does not
necessarily in, and of itself, lead to the ‘correct’ judgement being made.

Bryant discusses the role of heuristics in decision making and states that
they “can (particularly when applied in ecologically sound circumstances
which require rapid decision-making) perform as well, and often better
than more formal methods”. Heuristics can be used to simplify decisions
but as Tversky and Kahneman (1974) state they can lead to systematic
errors. They talk of a “taxonomy of themes”.
 1 WHY UNDERSTANDING POLICE INVESTIGATIVE … 9

The representativeness heuristic and the availability heuristic have been

found to be “most commonly observed heuristics within an investigation”
(Kirby 2013). Kirby states that the SIO is open to bias including “belief
persistence where once a belief or opinion is formed it can be difficult to
override”. In Chapter 6, Fahsing explores the educational background of
police officers and whether it can influence decision making and if

expertise seems to make us better, it cannot alone be trusted to serve as

a complete safeguard against fundamental cognitive Basis limitations. Enduring
high performance in complex operations cannot only rest on individual
competence alone.

In Chapter 5, Harland takes us through the Major Incident Room

(MIR) procedure the operation of the MIR and the roles and technol-
ogies that are employed in analysing the product of investigative activity,
and identifying fruitful activity from that analysis. Harland discusses the
conflicting demands of control and activity. Harland builds on the theme
of timeliness and phasing of enquires. The aim of the book is to reach
beyond the police manuals to encompass both theory around decision
making and best practice from case studies and research.

Recording of Decisions
The modern police decision maker now complete “Decision logs” or
“Policy logs”. The recording of vital decisions and why certain actions
were NOT taken as well as why they were. Cook et al. (2013: 45) discuss
the option of “doing nothing” or deferring a decision. They state that it
must be done for the right reason and must be communicated to all par-
ties internally and externally, the constant evaluation of facts was shown
in Roycroft’s (2007) research to be one of the main “solving factors” and
this process can help overcome biases and adjust early “bad” decisions.

Current Police Guidance on Decision Making

In the UK, the main police manuals for decision making is the Core
Investigative Doctrine and the NPCC Murder Manual. These set out
advice on dealing with critical incidents. The Core Investigative Doctrine
states that it provides national guidance on the key principles of criminal
investigation along with promoting good practice amongst practitioners.
10 M. ROYCROFT

The NPCC Murder Manual breaks the investigative process into 5 stages
as follows:

• Stage 1: Fast Track Actions

• Stage 2: Theoretical Processes or Investigative Process
• Stage 3: Planned method of investigation
• Stage 4: Suspect Enquires
• Stage 5: Disposal

The NPCC Core Investigative Doctrine describes some of the issues that
investigators face including overcoming personal bias (p. 58) and avoid-
ing verification bias, oversimplifying facts, becoming overwhelmed with
information and following non-optimal lines of enquiry. The investiga-
tive mindset according to the Doctrine involves the following into the
five following principles:

• Understanding the source of material

• Planning and preparation
• Examination
• Recording and collation
• Evaluation.

Stelfox (2009: 148) discuses the reactive and proactive responses to

crime investigation with the latter being particularly appropriate to
organised crime.
The police in the UK uses the Police National Decision model (NDM
app College of Policing accessed 9 August 2016). There are Six key ele-
ments with the mnemonic CIAPOAR explaining the key elements of the
NDM:

Code of Ethics—Principles and standards of professional behaviour

Information—Gather information and intelligence
Assessment—Assess threat and risk and develop a working strategy
Powers and policy—Consider powers and policy
Options—Identify options and contingencies
Action and review—Take action and review what happened

The College of Policing, Police Code of Ethics (see Appendix 1) sets out
the policing principles that members of the police service are expected to
 1 WHY UNDERSTANDING POLICE INVESTIGATIVE … 11

uphold and the standards of behaviour they are expected to meet. Many
forces have their own values statements which are complementary to the
Code of Ethics.
Throughout a situation, decision makers should ask themselves:

• Is what I am considering consistent with the Code of Ethics?

• What would the victim or community affected expect of me in this
situation?
• What does the police service expect of me in this situation?
• Is this action or decision likely to reflect positively on my profes-
sionalism and policing generally?
• Could I explain my action or decision in public?

During the early stages of an incident, the decision maker defines the sit-
uation and clarifies matters relating to any initial information and intel-
ligence. They then assess risk and the NDM asks that Decision makers
should consider:

• the options that are open

• the immediacy of any threat
• the limits of information to hand
• the amount of time available
• the available resources and support
• their own knowledge, experience and skills
• the impact of potential action on the situation and the public
• What action to take if things do not happen as anticipated?

The Golden Hour

Experienced SIOs often use the term the Golden Hour to describe the
principle that effective early action can result in securing significant
material that would otherwise be lost to the investigation. This refers
to the period following a crime where investigators seek to ensure that
all relevant evidence is identified and made secure. Everyone arriving at
the scene of a murder has their own golden hour. Where the police are
informed of an incident shortly after it has occurred, offenders may still
be in the area. Locating them can provide forensic opportunities that
could otherwise be lost, the testimony of witnesses can also be obtained
while the offence is still fresh in their mind, CCTV images and other
12 M. ROYCROFT

data can be collected before it is deleted and action can be taken to

secure Scenes before they become contaminated. Cook et al. (2013: 40)
summarise the Doctrine as follows:

• Assume nothing
• Believe nothing
• Challenge and check everything. They state that nothing should
be accepted at face value or taken for granted. Investigators must
“seek corroboration, recheck and review and confirm facts”.
The Practice advice on Core Investigative Doctrine (College of
Policing app) states that investigators should constantly search for
corroboration”.

These manuals set down the ground rules for decision makers and
the book is concerned with the processes that police officers use to
reach decisions. The authors (Chapters 2, 3, and 9) research found
that experienced senior detectives were concerned with “clearing the
ground” beneath their feet once they are engaged in policing an inci-
dent, i.e. ascertaining all relevant facts before moving on with an inves-
tigation. This includes risk assessment. The philosopher Michael Foucalt
stated that his job was to “make windows where there once was walls”
(Discipline and Punish the Birth of Prison London 1991). Ansoff
and Weston (1962) saw strategy as decision making with imperfect
information and he divided management decision making into three.
These distinguished decisions as either: Strategic, administrative or
operational. The modern police decision maker has to take cognisance of
all these issues. Stelfox talks of 3 key decision areas

• Is the behaviour a criminal offence?

• Who might be a suspect?
• What further material needs to be gathered?

In today’s environment a fourth element could be added, “the political”

element or the perception of how that case is being handled is as impor-
tant as the “mechanical” conduct of the enquiry. The media, the public
and local community will (rightly) demand updates on all elements of
the investigation and all concerns will have to be allayed.
 1 WHY UNDERSTANDING POLICE INVESTIGATIVE … 13

References
ACPO Murder Manual. (2002). College of Policing.
Ansoff, H. I., & Weston, J. F. (1962). Merger Objectives and Organization
Structure. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 2(3), 49–58.
Cook, et al. (2013). Blackstone’s Crime Investigator’s Handbook. UK: Oxford
University Press.
HMIC Effective Poling. (2015). Home Office.
Jay Report. (2017). Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse. London:
HMSO.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking Fast and Slow. London: Allen Lane.
Kirby, S. (2013). Effective Policing Implementation in Theory and Practice.
Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave.
Mark, R. (1978). In the Office of Constable. London, UK: Collins.
Mullins, S. J., Allison, L., & Crego, J. (2008). Towards a Taxonomy of Police
Decision-Making in Murder Inquiries. University of Wollangong.
Roach, & Pease. (2009). The Retrospective Detective: Cognitive Bias and the
Cold Case Homicide Investigator. Journal of Homicide and Major Incident
Investigation. UK: Wiley.
Roycroft, M. (2007). What Solves Hard to Solve Murders. Journal of Homicide
and Major Incident Investigation, 3(1), 93–107.
Roycroft, M. (2016). Police Chiefs in the UK: Politicians, HR Managers or Cops.
Palgrave.
Roycroft, M., Brown, J., & Innes, M. (2007). Reform by Crisis: The Murder
of Stephen Lawrence and a Socio-Historical Analysis of Developments in the
Conduct of Major Crime Investigations. In M. Rowe (Ed.), Policing Beyond
MacPherson. Routledge.
Sherman, L. (1998). Evidence-Based Policing, Ideas in American Policing Series.
Washington, DC: Police Foundation. www.policefoundation.org.
Stelfox, P. (2009). Criminal Investigation. Cullompton: Willan.
Stelfox, P., & Pease, K. (2005). Cognition and Detection: Reluctant Bedfellows?
In M. J. Smith & N. Tilley (Eds.), Crime Science: New Approaches to
Preventing and Detecting Crime (pp. 191–207). Cullompton, Devon: Willan
Publishing.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgement Under Uncertainty, Heuristics
and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
Wright, M. (2013). Homicide Detectives’. Journal of Investigative Psychology and
Offender Profiling, 182–199. Special Issue: Investigative Decision Making.
 CHAPTER 2

History of Decision-Making

Mark Roycroft

Abstract The author looks back over 40 years of inquires and reviews
of major police investigations such as The Yorkshire Ripper Case. The
author identified 7 themes that run through 40 years of historical
enquires, which are: Clarity and leadership among senior officers; Skills
of SIOs; Systematic failures; Phasing of enquires; The role of the Major
Incident Room; Information management; Individual investigative
strategy failures. Past inquiries can help inform present or future inves-
tigative strategies by providing best practice and highlighting potential
pitfalls. The role of the MIR and Holmes since the Yorkshire Ripper case
illustrates the progress that has been made although in the case of the
Harper, Maxwell and Hogg murders the suspect was not within the sys-
tem. The issue of leadership among senior management teams and SIOs
was discussed in the inquiries researched.

Keywords Clarity and leadership among senior officers · Skills of SIO’s ·

Systematic failures · Phasing of enquires · The role of the major
incident room · Information management · Individual investigative
strategy failures

M. Roycroft (*)
Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s) 2019 15

M. Roycroft and J. Roach (eds.),
Decision Making in Police Enquiries and Critical Incidents,
https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95847-4_2
16 M. ROYCROFT

This chapter explores the themes from over 40 years of reviews and
public inquires into major murder enquires. Seven key themes emerge
consistently from this overview. The purpose of the Chapter is to high-
light the main issues from the investigations researched and the themes
that emerged. Jones et al. (2008: 471) argue for the importance of a his-
torical context when examining murder investigations.
Looking across the historical pattern of inquiries, it does seem that
at particular historical moments certain high profile major crime investi-
gations come to be seen as problematic in some fashion. At such times,
the conduct of the investigation itself is reviewed, either through a public
enquiry, some other framework or internally, with the result that some
reform in policing practices is recommended. The introduction of signif-
icant reform is not a continuous progression and development; rather it
tends to occur in “fits and starts”.
The failure to act quickly as in the Soham (the 2002 murder of Holly
Wells and Jessica Chapman) case and the continuation of wrong deci-
sions in the Lawrence case were real-life illustrations of the need for
skilled decision-making by SIO’s. Lord MacPherson in his review of the
Lawerence case stated that each bad decision in the initial investigation
was compounded.
The Damiola Taylor Review (Recommendation 3.2.8) remarked on
the need to appoint people with the skills “to do the job”. This was
echoed in Recommendation 20 of the Flanagan report into the Soham
murder where Sir Flanagan commented that the Chief Officer should
(Pimlico lecture 12.1.05) “take a view of the skills needed in a major
enquiry and what skills the team actually have and that (in the Soham
case) senior officers failed to act on valuable evidential leads gathered
by officers on the ground”. In the Shipman inquiry Dame Smith criti-
cised DI Smith (the SIO), while recognising that many of his mistakes
were the result of his lack of experience of criminal investigations of a
non-routine nature (see page 5 of the report).
In the Climbie inquiry, Lord Laming stated that an investigation
should have begun straight away.
The Macpherson inquiry (into the death of Stephen Lawrence) in rec-
ommendation 46.9 stated that when the investigation was handed over
to Detective Superintendent Weedon “he perpetuated the wrong deci-
sions made in the vital early days. He did not exercise his own critical
faculties in order to test whether the right decisions had been made. His
fundamental misjudgement delayed arrests until 7th May”.
 2 HISTORY OF DECISION-MAKING 17

The common theme running through the Byford report, the Lawrence
case, the Shipman case and the Soham case is one of leadership. Lord
Macpherson commented on the “failure of direction by senior officers
(in the Lawrence case p. 317)…who seem simply to have accepted that
everything was being done satisfactorily by somebody else”. There was
a “lack of imagination and properly co-ordinated action and planning”.
“The Yorkshire Ripper case highlights how the direction given by the
SIO can influence the rest of the enquiry. Peter Sutcliffe was interviewed
by the Police nine times between 1975 and his arrest in January 1981.
Interviewing officers were influenced by the credence given to the letters
and the tape sent by a hoaxer.
The review into the investigation of the Omagh bomb attack in
N. Ireland (the bomb exploded on 15 August 1998) commented (Orde
and Rea 2017, p. 67) there was inadequate management support for
and control of the role of SIO” and the HMIC found “little evidence
of the idealised Investigative Making Process” and (Orde and Rea 2017,
p. 69) there was a two week mindset. This was a complicated investiga-
tion involving covert policing, intelligence handling and a joint investiga-
tion with the Garda Siochana.
The frequency with which official enquires into homicide are com-
missioned has increased. This phase started with the Macpherson report
in 1999 into the murder of Stephen Lawrence and the review of the
Damilola Taylor murder in 2002. The following year saw inquiries into
the death of Victoria Climbie and Dame Janet Smith’s inquiry into the
murders committed by Dr. Shipman. In 2004 Sir Ronnie Flanagan of the
HMIC published a report into the murders at Soham. There are now
historical inquires into child sexual abuse cases in all parts of the UK
including the IICSA, The Independent Inquiry into sexual abuse. The
IPCC/IOPC now provides independent scrutiny of police investigations
and their work on the Hillsborough case was comprehensive. Table 2.1
highlights the critical issues identified from reviews and inquires from
1966 to the present day.
The present researcher documented themes from each report and
then compared them across all reports determining the most frequent.
Seven repeated themes emerged:

• Clarity and leadership among senior officers;

• Skills of SIO’s;
• Systematic failures;
Table 2.1 Table of recommendations and themes identified from inquiries
18

Case Name and date of inquiry Critical issues Main recommendations Themes identified
date of murder or review

Cannock Chase No public inquiry Failed to identify the suspect Systematic failures
Murder 1966
M. ROYCROFT

Murder of Maxwell Confait enquiry by Sir Uncorroborated confession Tape recording of interviews Accountability of the
Confait Henry Fisher1977 evidence from main suspect Introduction of appropriate adults Police
1972 having mental age of 8 safeguards for vulnerable persons Treatment of vulnera-
ble suspects
Skills of SIOs
Murder of Sarah No public inquiry Failure to identify suspect Catchem database introduced Systematic failures
Harper, Susan Management of flow
Maxwell & of info
Caroline Hogg
murdered between
1983–1986
Murder of Stephen Report by Sir William Failure to arrest suspects FLO’s introduced Systematic failure
Lawrence murdered MacPherson February 1999 Failure to keep victims family Decision Logs introduced Skills of SIO
22 April 1993 informed Racial Awareness Training intro-
duced Murder Review Groups
introduced.
Murder of Victoria Lord Laming’s public Crimes involving chil- Managers from each service should Skills base
Climbie Inquiry dren should be dealt with be involved in the investigation Phasing
25 January 2000 2001–2003 promptly and efficiently Police must take the lead in any Lack of coordination
reported 2003 joint investigation within the command
Supervisory officers structure
Must take an active
Role in Investigations

(continued)
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
 Quale esse cernis ipsi.

But if my interpretation of Dares’ meaning be the true one, what

should we read instead of “notam?” Perhaps “moram.” For certainly
“mora” may mean not only the interval of time before something
happens, but also the impediment, the space between one thing and
another.
Ego inquieta montium jaceam mora,

is the wish of the raving Hercules in Seneca, which Gronovius very

well explains thus: “Optat se medium jacere inter duas Symplegades,
illarum velut moram, impedimentum, obicem; qui eas moretur, vetet
aut satis arcte conjungi, aut rursus distrahi.” The same poet uses
“laceratorum moræ” in the sense of “juncturæ.” (Schrœderus ad. v.
762. Thyest.)
 Note 44, p. 131.
Dialogo della Pittura, intitolata l’Aretino: Firenze 1735, p. 178. “Se
vogliono i Pittori senza fatica trovare un perfetto esempio di bella
Donna, legiano quelle Stanze dell’ Ariosto, nelle quali egli discrive
mirabilmente le belezze della Fata Alcina; e vedranno parimente,
quanto i buoni Poeti siano ancora essi Pittori.”
 Note 45, p. 131.
Ibid. “Ecco, che, quanto alla proporzione, l’ingeniosissimo Ariosto
assegna la migliore, che sappiano formar le mani de’ più eccellenti
Pittori, usando questa voce industri, per dinotar la diligenza, che
conviene al buono artefice.”
 Note 46, p. 132.
Ibid. “Qui l’Ariosto colorisce, e in questo suo colorire dimostra
essere un Titiano.”
 Note 47, p. 132.
Ibid. “Poteva l’Ariosto nella guisa, che ha detto chioma bionda, dir
chioma d’oro: ma gli parve forse, che havrebbe havuto troppo del
Poetico. Da che si può ritrar, che ’l Pittore dee imitar l’oro, e non
metterlo (come fanno i Miniatori) nelle sue Pitture, in modo, che si
possa dire, que’ capelli non sono d’oro, ma par che risplendano,
come l’oro.” What Dolce goes on to quote from Athenæus is
remarkable, but happens to be a misquotation. I shall speak of it in
another place.
 Note 48, p. 132.
Ibid. “Il naso, che discende giù, havendo peraventura la
considerazione a quelle forme de’ nasi, che si veggono ne’ ritratti
delle belle Romane antiche.”
 Note 49, p. 143.
Pliny says of Apelles (lib. xxxv. sect. 36): “Fecit et Dianam
sacrificantium Virginum choro mixtam; quibus vicisse Homeri
versus videtur id ipsum describentis.” “He also made a Diana
surrounded by a band of virgins performing a sacrifice; a work in
which he would seem to have surpassed the verses of Homer
describing the same thing.” This praise may be perfectly just; for
beautiful nymphs surrounding a beautiful goddess, who towers
above them by the whole height of her majestic brow, form a theme
more fitting the painter than the poet. But I am somewhat suspicious
of the word “sacrificantium.” What have the nymphs of Diana to do
with offering sacrifices? Is that the occupation assigned them by
Homer? By no means. They roam with the goddess over hills and
through forest; they hunt, play, dance. (Odyss. vi. 102–106).
οἵη δ’ Ἄρτεμις εἰσὶ κατ’ οὔρεος ἰοχέαιρα
ἢ κατὰ Τηΰγετον περιμήκετον, ἢ Ἐρύμανθον
τερπομένη κάπροισι καὶ ὠκείῃς ἐλάφοισι·
τῇ δὲ θ’ ἅμα Νύμφαι, κοῦραι Διὸς αἰγιόχοιο
ἀγρονόμοι παίζουσι·...

As when o’er Erymanth Diana roves

Or wide Taygetus’s resounding groves;
A sylvan train the huntress queen surrounds,
Her rattling quiver from her shoulder sounds;
Fierce in the sport along the mountain brow,
They bay the boar or chase the bounding roe.
High o’er the lawn with more majestic pace,
Above the nymphs she treads with stately grace.—Pope.

Pliny, therefore, can hardly have written “sacrificantium,” rather

“venantium” (hunting), or something like it; perhaps “sylvis
vagantium” (roaming the woods), which corresponds more nearly in
number of letters to the altered word. “Saltantium” (bounding),
approaches most nearly to the παίζουσι of Homer. Virgil, also, in his
imitation of this passage, represents the nymphs as dancing. (Æneid,
i. 497, 498.)
 Qualis in Eurotæ ripis, aut per juga Cynthi
Exercet Diana choros....

Such on Eurotas’ banks or Cynthus’ height

Diana seems; and so she charms the sight,
When in the dance the graceful goddess leads
The choir of nymphs and overtops their heads.—Dryden.

Spence gives a remarkable criticism on this passage. (Polymetis, dial.

viii.) “This Diana,” he says, “both in the picture and in the
descriptions, was the Diana Venatrix, though she was not
represented, either by Virgil or Apelles or Homer, as hunting with
her nymphs; but as employed with them in that sort of dances which
of old were regarded as very solemn acts of devotion.” In a note he
adds, “The expression of παίζειν, used by Homer on this occasion, is
scarce proper for hunting; as that of “choros exercere,” in Virgil,
should be understood of the religious dances of old, because dancing,
in the old Roman idea of it, was indecent, even for men, in public,
unless it were the sort of dances used in honor of Mars or Bacchus or
some other of their gods.” Spence supposes that those solemn dances
are here referred to, which, among the ancients, were counted among
the acts of religion. “It is in consequence of this,” he says, “that Pliny,
in speaking of Diana’s nymphs on this very occasion, uses the word
“sacrificare” of them, which quite determines these dances of theirs
to have been of the religious kind.” He forgets that, in Virgil, Diana
joins in the dance, “exercet Diana choros.” If this were a religious
dance, in whose honor did Diana dance it? in her own, or in honor of
some other deity? Both suppositions are absurd. If the old Romans
did hold dancing in general to be unbecoming in a grave person, was
that a reason why their poets should transfer the national gravity to
the manners of the gods, which were very differently represented by
the old Greek poets? When Horace says of Venus (Od. iv. lib. i.),—
Jam Cytherea choros ducit Venus, imminente luna;
Junctæque Nymphis Gratiæ decentes
Alterno terram quatiunt pede....

“Now Cytherean Venus leads the bands, under the shining moon,
and the fair graces, joined with the nymphs, beat the ground with
alternate feet,”—were these, likewise, sacred, religious dances? But it
is wasting words to argue against such a conceit.
 Note 50, p. 145.
Plinius, lib. xxxiv. sect. 19. “Ipse tamen corporum tenus curiosus,
animi sensus non expressisse videtur, capillum quoque et pubem
non emendatius fecisse, quam rudis antiquitas instituisset.
“Hic primus nervos et venas expressit, capillumque diligentius.”
 Note 51, p. 162.
The Connoisseur, vol. i. no. 21. The beauty of Knonmquaiha is thus
described. “He was struck with the glossy hue of her complexion,
which shone like the jetty down on the black hogs of Hessaqua; he
was ravished with the prest gristle of her nose; and his eyes dwelt
with admiration on the flaccid beauties of her breasts, which
descended to her navel.” And how were these charms set off by art?
“She made a varnish of the fat of goats mixed with soot, with which
she anointed her whole body as she stood beneath the rays of the
sun; her locks were clotted with melted grease, and powdered with
the yellow dust of Buchu; her face, which shone like the polished
ebony, was beautifully varied with spots of red earth, and appeared
like the sable curtain of the night bespangled with stars; she
sprinkled her limbs with wood-ashes, and perfumed them with the
dung of Stinkbingsem. Her arms and legs were entwined with the
shining entrails of an heifer; from her neck there hung a pouch
composed of the stomach of a kid; the wings of an ostrich
overshadowed the fleshy promontories behind; and before she wore
an apron formed of the shaggy ears of a lion.”
Here is further the marriage ceremony of the loving pair. “The
Surri, or Chief Priest, approached them, and, in a deep voice,
chanted the nuptial rites to the melodious grumbling of the Gom-
Gom; and, at the same time (according to the manner of Caffraria),
bedewed them plentifully with the urinary benediction. The bride
and bridegroom rubbed in the precious stream with ecstasy, while
the briny drops trickled from their bodies, like the oozy surge from
the rocks of Chirigriqua.”
 Note 52, p. 166.
The Sea-Voyage, act iii. scene 1. A French pirate ship is thrown
upon a desert island. Avarice and envy cause quarrels among the
men, and a couple of wretches, who had long suffered extreme want
on the island, seize a favorable opportunity to put to sea in the ship.
Robbed thus of their whole stock of provisions, the miserable men
see death, in its worst forms, staring them in the face, and express to
each other their hunger and despair as follows:—
Lamure. Oh, what a tempest have I in my stomach!
How my empty guts cry out! My wounds ache,
Would they would bleed again, that I might get
Something to quench my thirst!

Franville. O Lamure, the happiness my dogs had

When I kept house at home! They had a storehouse,
A storehouse of most blessed bones and crusts.
Happy crusts! Oh, how sharp hunger pinches me!

Lamure. How now, what news?

Morillar. Hast any meat yet?

Franville. Not a bit that I can see.

Here be goodly quarries, but they be cruel hard
To gnaw. I ha’ got some mud, we’ll eat it with spoons;
Very good thick mud; but it stinks damnably.
There’s old rotten trunks of trees, too,
But not a leaf nor blossom in all the island.

Lamure. How it looks!

Morillar. It stinks too.

Lamure. It may be poison.

Franville. Let it be any thing,

So I can get it down. Why, man,
Poison’s a princely dish!
 Morillar. Hast thou no biscuit?
No crumbs left in thy pocket? Here is my doublet,
Give me but three small crumbs.

Franville. Not for three kingdoms,

If I were master of ’em. Oh, Lamure,
But one poor joint of mutton we ha’ scorned, man!

Lamure. Thou speak’st of paradise;

Or but the snuffs of those healths,
We have lewdly at midnight flung away.

Morillar. Ah, but to lick the glasses!

But this is nothing, compared with the next scene, when the ship’s
surgeon enters.
Franville. Here comes the surgeon. What
Hast thou discovered? Smile, smile, and comfort us.

Surgeon. I am expiring,
Smile they that can. I can find nothing, gentlemen,
Here’s nothing can be meat without a miracle.
Oh, that I had my boxes and my lints now,
My stupes, my tents, and those sweet helps of nature!
What dainty dishes could I make of them!

Morillar. Hast ne’er an old suppository?

Surgeon. Oh, would I had, sir!

Lamure. Or but the paper where such a cordial

Potion, or pills hath been entombed!

Franville. Or the best bladder, where a cooling glister?

Morillar. Hast thou no searcloths left?

Nor any old poultices?

Franville. We care not to what it hath been ministered.

Surgeon. Sure I have none of these dainties, gentlemen.

Franville. Where’s the great wen

Thou cut’st from Hugh the sailor’s shoulder?
That would serve now for a most princely banquet.
Surgeon. Ay, if we had it, gentlemen.
I flung it overboard, slave that I was.

Lamure. A most improvident villain!

 Note 53, p. 177.
Æneid, lib. ii. 7, and especially lib. xi. 183. We might safely,
therefore, add such a work to the list of lost writings by this author.
 Note 54, p. 179.
Consult the list of inscriptions on ancient works of art in Mar.
Gudius. (ad Phædri fab. v. lib. i.), and, in connection with that, the
correction made by Gronovius. (Præf. ad Tom. ix. Thesauri Antiq.
Græc.)
 Note 55, p. 182.
He at least expressly promises to do so: “quæ suis locis reddam”
(which I shall speak of in their proper place). But if this was not
wholly forgotten, it was at least done very cursorily, and not at all in
the way this promise had led us to expect. When he writes (lib. xxxv.
sect. 39), “Lysippus quoque Æginæ picturæ suæ inscripsit,
ἐνέκαυσεν; quod profecto non fecisset, nisi encaustica inventa,” he
evidently uses ἐνέκαυσεν to prove something quite different. If he
meant, as Hardouin supposes, to indicate in this passage one of the
works whose inscription was written in definite past time, it would
have been worth his while to put in a word to that effect. Hardouin
finds reference to the other two works in the following passage:
“Idem (Divus Augustus) in Curia quoque, quam in Comitio
consecrabat, duas tabulas impressit parieti: Nemeam sedentem
supra leonem, palmigeram ipsam, adstante cum baculo sene, cujus
supra caput tabula bigæ dependet. Nicias scripsit se inussisse; tali
enim usus est verbo. Alterius tabulæ admiratio est, puberem filium
seni patri similem esse, salva ætatis differentia, supervolante aquila
draconem complexa. Philochares hoc suum opus esse testatus est.”
(Lib. xxxv. sect. 10.) Two different pictures are here described which
Augustus had set up in the newly built senate-house. The second was
by Philochares, the first by Nicias. All that is said of the picture by
Philochares is plain and clear, but there are certain difficulties in
regard to the other. It represented Nemea seated on a lion, a palm-
branch in her hand, and near her an old man with a staff: “cujus
supra caput tabula bigæ dependet.” What is the meaning of that?
“over his head hung a tablet on which was painted a two-horse
chariot.” That is the only meaning the words will bear. Was there,
then, a smaller picture hung over the large one? and were both by
Nicias? Hardouin must so have understood it, else where were the
two pictures by Nicias, since the other is expressly ascribed to
Philochares? “Inscripsit Nicias igitur geminæ huic tabulæ suum
nomen in hunc modum: Ὁ ΝΙΚΙΑΣ ΕΝΕΚΑΥΣΕΝ: atque adeo e
tribus operibus, quæ absolute fuisse inscripta, ILLE FECIT, indicavit
Præfatio ad Titum, duo hæc sunt Niciae.” I should like to ask
Hardouin one question. If Nicias had really used the indefinite, and
not the definite past tense, and Pliny had merely wished to say that
the master, instead of γράφειν, had used ἐγκαίειν, would he not still
have been obliged to say in Latin, “Nicias scripsit se inussisse?” But I
will not insist upon this point. Pliny may really have meant to
indicate here one of the three works before referred to. But who will
be induced to believe that there were two pictures, placed one above
the other? Not I for one. The words “cujus supra caput tabula bigæ
dependet” must be a corruption. “Tabula bigæ,” a picture of a two-
horse chariot, does not sound much like Pliny, although Pliny does
elsewhere use “biga” in the singular. What sort of a two-horse
chariot? Such as were used in the races at the Nemæan games, so
that this little picture should, from its subject, be related to the chief
one? That cannot be; for not two but four horse chariots were usual
in the Nemæan games. (Schmidius in Prol. ad Nemeonicas, p. 2.) At
one time, I thought that Pliny might, instead of “bigæ,” have written
a Greek word, πτυχίον, which the copyists did not understand. For
we know, from a passage in Antigonus Carystius, quoted by Zenobius
(conf. Gronovius, T. ix. Antiquit. Græc. Præf. p. 7), that the old artists
did not always put their name on the work itself, but sometimes on a
separate tablet, attached to the picture or statue, and this tablet was
called πτυχίον. The word “tabula, tabella,” might have been written
in the margin in explanation of the Greek word, and at last have
crept into the text. πτυχίον was turned into “bigæ,” and so we get
“tabula bigæ.” This πτυχίον agrees perfectly with what follows; for
the next sentence contains what was written on it. The whole passage
would then read thus: “cujus supra caput πτυχίον dependet, quo
Nicias scripsit se inussisse.” My correction is rather a bold one, I
acknowledge. Need a critic feel obliged to suggest the proper reading
for every passage that he can prove to be corrupted? I will rest
content with having done the latter, and leave the former to some
more skilful hand. But to return to the subject under discussion. If
Pliny be here speaking of but a single picture by Nicias, on which he
had inscribed his name in definite past time, and if the second
picture thus inscribed be the above-mentioned one of Lysippus,
where is the third? That I cannot tell. If I might look for it elsewhere
among the old writers, the question were easily answered. But it
ought to be found in Pliny; and there, I repeat, I am entirely unable
to discover it.
 Note 56, p. 186.
Thus Statius says “obnixa pectora” (Thebaid. lib. vi. v. 863):
... rumpunt obnixa furentes
Pectora.

which the old commentator of Barths explains by “summa vi contra

nitentia.” Thus Ovid says (Halievt. v. ii.), “obnixa fronte,” when
describing the “scarus” trying to force its way through the fish-trap,
not with his head, but with his tail.
Non audet radiis obnixa occurrere fronte.
 Note 57, p. 192.
Geschichte der Kunst, part ii. p. 328. “He produced the Antigone,
his first tragedy, in the third year of the seventy-seventh Olympiad.”
The time is tolerably exact, but it is quite a mistake to suppose that
this first tragedy was the Antigone. Neither is it so called by Samuel
Petit, whom Winkelmann quotes in a note. He expressly puts the
Antigone in the third year of the eighty-fourth Olympiad. The
following year, Sophocles went with Pericles to Samos, and the year
of this expedition can be determined with exactness. In my life of
Sophocles, I show, from a comparison with a passage of the elder
Pliny, that the first tragedy of this author was probably Triptolemus.
(Lib. xviii. sect. 12.) Pliny is speaking of the various excellence of the
fruits of different countries, and concludes thus: “Hæ fuere
sententiæ, Alexandro magno regnante, cum clarissima fuit Græcia,
atque in toto terrarum orbe potentissima; ita tamen ut ante mortem
ejus annis fere CXLV. Sophocles poeta in fabula Triptolemo
frumentum Italicum ante cuncta laudaverit, ad verbum translata
sententia:
Et fortunatam Italiam frumento canere candido.”

He is here not necessarily speaking of the first tragedy of Sophocles,

to be sure. But the date of that, fixed by Plutarch, the scholiast, and
the Arundelian marbles, as the seventy-seventh Olympiad,
corresponds so exactly with the date assigned by Pliny to the
Triptolemus, that we can hardly help regarding that as the first of
Sophocles’ tragedies. The calculation is easily made. Alexander died
in the hundred and fourteenth Olympiad. One hundred and forty-
five years cover thirty-six Olympiads and one year, which subtracted
from the total, gives seventy-seven. The Triptolemus of Sophocles
appeared in the seventy-seventh Olympiad; the last year of this same
Olympiad is the date of his first tragedy: we may naturally conclude,
therefore, that these tragedies are one. I show at the same time that
Petit might have spared himself the writing of the whole half of the
chapter in his “Miscellanea” which Winkelmann quotes (xviii. lib.
iii.). In the passage of Pliny, which he thinks to amend, it is quite
unnecessary to change the name of the Archon Aphepsion into
Demotion, or ἀνεψιός. He need only have looked from the third to
the fourth year of the seventy-seventh Olympiad to find that the
Archon of that year was called Aphepsion by the ancient authors
quite as often as Phædon, if not oftener. He is called Phædon by
Diodorus Siculus, Dionysius Halicarnassus, and the anonymous
author of the table of the Olympiads; while the Arundelian marbles,
Apollodorus, and, quoting him, Diogenes Laertius, call him
Aphepsion. Plutarch calls him by both names; Phædon in the life of
Theseus and Aphepsion in the life of Cimon. It is therefore probable,
as Palmerius supposes, “Aphepsionem et Phædonem Archontas
fuisse eponymos; scilicet, uno in magistratu mortuo, suffectus fuit
alter.” (Exercit. p. 452.) This reminds me that Winkelmann, in his
first work on the imitation of Greek art, allowed an error to creep in
with regard to Sophocles. “The most beautiful of the youths danced
naked in the theatre, and Sophocles, the great Sophocles, was in his
youth the first to show himself thus to his fellow-citizens.” Sophocles
never danced naked on the stage. He danced around the trophies
after the victory of Salamis, according to some authorities naked, but
according to others clothed. (Athen. lib. i. p. m. 20.) Sophocles was
one of the boys who was brought for safety to Salamis, and on this
island it pleased the tragic muse to assemble her three favorites in a
gradation typical of their future career. The bold Æschylus helped
gain the victory; the blooming Sophocles danced around the
trophies; and on the same happy island, on the very day of the
victory, Euripides was born.
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