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YOUR NOTES
AS Maths Edexcel 

4. Statistical Distributions

CONTENTS
4.1 Probability Distributions
4.1.1 Discrete Probability Distributions
4.2 Binomial Distribution
4.2.1 The Binomial Distribution
4.2.2 Calculating Binomial Probabilities

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4.1 Probability Distributions YOUR NOTES


4.1.1 Discrete Probability Distributions

Discrete Random Variables

What is a discrete random variable?
A random variable is a variable whose value depends on the outcome of a random event
The value of the random variable is not known until the event is carried out (this is what
is meant by 'random' in this case)
Random variables are denoted using upper case letters (X , Y , etc )
Particular outcomes of the event are denoted using lower case letters ( x, y, etc)
P (X = x ) means "the probability of the random variable X taking the value x "
A discrete random variable (often abbreviated to DRV) can only take certain values within a
set
Discrete random variables usually count something
Discrete random variables usually can only take a finite number of values but it is
possible that it can take an infinite number of values (see the examples below)
Examples of discrete random variables include:
The number of times a coin lands on heads when flipped 20 times
(this has a finite number of outcomes: 0,1,2,…,20)
The number of emails a manager receives within an hour
(this has an infinite number of outcomes: 1,2,3,…)
The number of times a dice is rolled until it lands on a 6
(this has an infinite number of outcomes: 1,2,3,…)
The number on a bingo ball when one is drawn at random
(this has a finite number of outcomes: 1,2,3…,90)

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Probability Distributions (Discrete) YOUR NOTES

What is a probability distribution? 
A discrete probability distribution fully describes all the values that a discrete random
variable can take along with their associated probabilities
This can be given in a table (similar to GCSE)
Or it can be given as a function (called a probability mass function)
They can be represented by vertical line graphs (the possible values for X along the
horizontal axis and the probability on the vertical axis)
The sum of the probabilities of all the values of a discrete random variable is 1
This is usually written ΣP(X = x ) = 1
A discrete uniform distribution is one where the random variable takes a finite number of
values each with an equal probability
1
If there are n values then the probability of each one is
n

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YOUR NOTES


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Cumulative Probabilities (Discrete) YOUR NOTES

How do I calculate probabilities using a discrete probability distribution? 
First draw a table to represent the probability distribution
If it is given as a function then find each probability
If any probabilities are unknown then use algebra to represent them
Form an equation using ∑P(X = x ) = 1
Add together all the probabilities and make the sum equal to 1
To find P (X = k )
If is a possible value of the random variable X then P (X = k ) will be given in the table
If k is not a possible value then P (X = k ) = 0
To find P (X ≤ k )
Identify all possible values, xi , that X can take which satisfy xi ≤ k
Add together all their corresponding probabilities
P(X ≤ k ) = ∑ P(X = x i )
x i ≤k

Some mathematicians use the notation F(x) to represent the cumulative distribution
F(x ) = P(X ≤ x )
Using a similar method you can find P (X < k ) , P (X ≥ k ) and P (X > k )
As all the probabilities add up to 1 you can form the following equivalent equations:
P (X < k ) + P (X = k ) + P (X > k ) = 1
P (X > k ) = 1 − P (X ≤ k )
P (X ≥ k ) = 1 − P (X < k )
To calculate more complicated probabilities such as P (X 2 < 4)
Identify which values of the random variable satisfy the inequality or event in the
brackets
Add together the corresponding probabilities
How do I know which inequality to use?
P(X ≤ k ) would be used for phrases such as:
At most k, no greater than k, etc
P(X < k ) would be used for phrases such as:
Fewer than k
P(X ≥ k ) would be used for phrases such as:
At least k , no fewer than k, etc
P(X > k ) would be used for phrases such as:
Greater than k, etc

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YOUR NOTES
 Worked Example

The probability distribution of the discrete random variable is given by the function
⎧⎪ 2
⎪⎪ kx x = − 3, − 1,2,4
P(X = x ) = ⎨⎪⎪
⎪⎩ 0 otherwise.

1
(a) Show that k = .
30

(b) Calculate P(X ≤ 3) .

(c)
Calculate P(X 2 < 5)

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YOUR NOTES


 Exam Tip
Try to draw a table if there are a finite number of values that the discrete random
variable can take
When finding a probability, it will sometimes be quicker to subtract the
probabilities of the unwanted values from 1 rather than adding together the
probabilities of the wanted values
Always make sure that the probabilities are between 0 and 1, and that they add
up to 1!

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4.2 Binomial Distribution YOUR NOTES


4.2.1 The Binomial Distribution

Properties of Binomial Distribution

What is a binomial distribution?
A binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution
The discrete random variable follows a binomial distribution if it counts the number of
successes when an experiment satisfies the conditions:
There are a fixed finite number of trials (n )
The outcome of each trial is independent of the outcomes of the other trials
There are exactly two outcomes of each trial (success or failure)
The probability of success (p) is constant
If X follows a binomial distribution then it is denoted X ∼ B (n , p )
n is the number of trials
p is the probability of success
The probability of failure is 1-p which is sometimes denoted as q
The formula for the probability of r successful trials is given by:
⎛n⎞
P = (X = r ) = ⎜⎜⎜ ⎟⎟⎟ p r (1 − p ) n − r for r = 0, 1, 2,....,n
⎝r ⎠
This is equal to the term which includes p r in the expansion of (p + q ) n where q = 1 − p
(this shows the link with the Binomial Expansion)
You will be expected to use the distribution function on your calculator to calculate
probabilities with the binomial distribution
What are the important properties of a binomial distribution?
The expected number (mean) of successful trials is np
The variance of the number of successful trials is np (1 − p )
Square root to get the standard deviation
If X is the number of successes and Y is the number of failures then we have:
X ∼ B (n ,p ) and B (n ,1 − p )
X +Y = n
The distribution can be represented visually using a vertical line graph
If p is close to 0 then the graph has a tail to the right
If p is close to 1 then the graph has a tail to the left
If p is close to 0.5 then the graph is roughly symmetrical
If p =0.5 then the graph is symmetrical

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YOUR NOTES


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Modelling with Binomial Distribution YOUR NOTES

How do I set up a binomial model? 
Identify what a trial is in the scenario
For example: rolling a dice, flipping a coin, checking hair colour
Identify what the successful outcome is in the scenario
For example: rolling a 6, landing on tails, having black hair
Make sure you clearly state what your random variable is
For example, let X be the number of students in a class of 30 with black hair
What can be modelled using a binomial distribution?
Anything that satisfies the four conditions
For example, let T be the number of times a fair coin lands on tails when flipped 20 times:
⎛ 1⎞
T ∼ B ⎜⎜ 20, ⎟⎟
⎝ 2⎠
A trial is flipping a coin: There are 20 trials so n =20
We can assume each coin flip does not affect subsequent coin flips: They are
independent
A success is when the coin lands on tails: Two outcomes - tails or not tails (heads)
1
The coin is fair: The probability of tails is constant with p =
2
Sometimes it might seem like there are more than two outcomes
For example, let Y be the number of yellow cars that are in a car park full of 100 cars
Although there are more than two possible colours of cars, here the trial is whether a
car is yellow so there are two outcomes (yellow or not yellow)
Y would still need to fulfil the other conditions in order to follow a binomial distribution
Sometimes a sample may be taken from a population
For example, 30% of people in a city have blue eyes, a sample of 30 people from the
city is taken and X is the number of them with blue eyes
As long as the population is large and the sample is random then it can be assumed
that each person has a 30% chance of having blue eyes
What can not be modelled using a binomial distribution?
Anything where the number of trials is not fixed or is infinite
The number of emails received in an hour
The number of times a coin is flipped until it lands on heads
Anything where the outcome of one trial affects the outcome of the other trials
The number of caramels that a person eats when they eat 5 sweets from a bag
containing 6 caramels and 4 marshmallows
If you eat a caramel for your first sweet then there are less caramels left in the bag
when you choose your second sweet
Anything where there are more than two outcomes of a trial
A person's shoe size
The number a dice lands on when rolled
Anything where the probability of success changes
The number of times that a person can swim a length of a swimming pool in under a
minute when swimming 50 lengths

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The probability of swimming a lap in under a minute will decrease as the person YOUR NOTES
gets tired 

 Worked Example
It is known that 8% of a large population are immune to a particular virus. Mark takes
a sample of 50 people from this population. Mark uses a binomial model for the
number of people in his sample that are immune to the virus
(a)
State the distribution that Mark uses.

(b)
State the two assumptions that Mark must make in order to use a binomial model.

(a)
State the distribution that Mark uses.

(b)
State the two assumptions that Mark must make in order to use a binomial model.

 Exam Tip
If you are asked to criticise a binomial model always consider whether the trials
are independent, this is usually the one that stops a variable from following a
binomial distribution!

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4.2.2 Calculating Binomial Probabilities YOUR NOTES


Calculating Binomial Probabilities
Throughout this section we will use the random variable X ∼ B (n ,p ) . For binomial, the probability
of a X taking a non-integer or negative value is always zero. Therefore any values mentioned in
this section will be assumed to be non-negative integers.
How do I calculate, P(X = x) the probability of a single value for a binomial
distribution?
You should have a calculator that can calculate binomial probabilities
You want to use the "Binomial Probability Distribution" function
This is sometimes shortened to BPD, Binomial PD or Binomial Pdf
You will need to enter:
The ' x ' value - the value of for which you want to find P( X = x )
The ' n ' value - the number of trials
The ' p ' value - the probability of success
Some calculators will give you the option of listing the probabilities for multiple values x of
at once
There is a formula that you can use but you are expected to be able to use the distribution
function on your calculator
⎛n⎞
P (X = x ) = ⎜⎜⎜ ⎟⎟⎟ p x (1 − p ) n − x
⎝x⎠
If there are x successes then there are (n − x ) failures
The number of times this can happen is calculated by the binomial coefficient
⎛⎜ n ⎞⎟ n n!
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = C =
x x !(n − x )!
⎝x⎠
This can be seen by considering a probability tree diagram with n trials, where p is
the probability of success and the tree diagram is being used to find x successes
⎛⎜ n ⎞⎟
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ is the number of pathways through the tree there would be exactly x
⎝x⎠
successes within the n trials
You might find it quicker to use the formula than finding using the binomial probability
distribution function on your calculator
How do I calculate, P(X ≤ x), the cumulative probabilities for a binomial
distribution?
You should have a calculator that can calculate cumulative binomial probabilities
Most calculators will only find P (X ≤ x )
Some calculators can find P (a ≤ X ≤ b )
You want to use the "Binomial Cumulative Distribution" function
This is sometimes shortened to BCD, Binomial CD or Binomial Cdf
You will need to enter:
The 'x' value - the value of x for which you want to find P ( X ≤ x )
Some will instead ask for lower and upper bounds
For this lower would be 0 and upper would be x
The ' n ' value - the number of trials

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The ' p ' value - the probability of success YOUR NOTES

How do I find P(X ≥ x)? 
You might be lucky enough to have a calculator that has lower and upper bounds:
Use x for the lower bound and n for the upper bound
Otherwise, you will need some extra identities
X ≥ x : This means all values of X which are at least x
This is all values of X except the ones that are less than x
P (X ≥ x ) = 1 − P (X < x )
As x is an integer then P (X < x ) = P (X ≤ x − 1) as the probability of X is zero for non-integer
values for a binomial distribution
Therefore to calculate P (X ≥ x ) :
P ( X ≥ x ) = 1 − P ( X ≤ x − 1)
For example: P (X ≥ 10) = 1 − P (X ≤ 9)
How do I find P(a ≤ X ≤ b)?
You might be lucky enough to have a calculator that has lower and upper bounds:
Use a for the lower bound and b for the upper bound
Otherwise, you will need some extra identities
a ≤ X ≤ b : This means all values of X which are at least a and at most b
This is all the values of X which are no greater than b except the ones which are less
than a
P (a ≤ X ≤ b ) = P (X ≤ b ) − P (X < a )
As x is an integer then P (X < a ) = P (X ≤ a − 1) as the probability of X is zero for non-integer
values for a binomial distribution
Therefore to calculate P (a ≤ X ≤ b ) :
P ( a ≤ X ≤ b ) = P ( X ≤ b ) − P ( X ≤ a − 1)
For example: P (4 ≤ X ≤ 9) = P (X ≤ 9) − P (X ≤ 3)
What if an inequality does not have the equals sign (strict inequality)?
For a binomial distribution (as it is discrete) you could rewrite all strict inequalities (< and >)
as weak inequalities (≤ and ≥) by using the identities for a binomial distribution
P ( X < x ) = P ( X ≤ x − 1) and P (X > x) = P (X ≥ x + 1)
For example: P (X < 5) = P (X ≤ 4) and P (X > 5) = P (X ≥ 6)
Though it helps to understand how they work
It helps to think about the range of integers you want
Always find the biggest integer that you want to include and the biggest integer that you
then want to exclude
For example, : P (4 < X ≤ 10)
You want the integers 5 to 10
You want the integers up to 10 excluding the integers up to 4
P (X ≤ 10) − P (X ≤ 4)
For example, P(X > 6) :
You want the all the integers from 7 onwards
You want to include all integers excluding the integers up to 6
1- P(X ≤ 6)
For example, P(X < 8) :

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You want the integers 0 to 7 YOUR NOTES

P(X ≤ 7) 
How do I use the binomial cumulative distribution function tables?
In your formula booklet you get tables which list the values of P(X ≤ x)for different values of
x, p and n
n can be 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 10, 12, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50
p can be 05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35, 0.4, 0.45, 0.5
x can be different values depending on n
The probabilities are rounded to 4 decimal places
If you want more accurate values then you will need to use your calculator
The tables are useful when you want to find a value of x given the probability
For example, the largest value of such that P(X ≤ x) is less than 0.95
You can estimate P(X = k )using the tables by using:
P ( X = k ) = P ( X ≤ k ) − P ( X ≤ k − 1)
To get a more accurate estimate use the formula or the binomial probability
distribution function on your calculator
The values of p only go up to 0.5
You can instead count the number of failures Y ∼ B (n ,1 − p ) if the probability of
success is bigger than 0.5
Remember X+Y =n, which leads to identities:
P (X = k ) = P (Y = n − k )
P (X ≤ k ) = P (Y ≥ n − k )
P (X ≥ k ) = P (Y ≤ n − k )

 Worked Example
The random variable X ∼ B (40,0 . 35) . Find:
(a)
P(X = 10)
(b)
P(X ≤ 10)
(c)
P(X ≥ 10)
(d)
P(8 < X < 15)

(a)
P(X = 10)

(b)

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P(X ≤ 10) YOUR NOTES



(c)
P(X ≥ 10)

(d)
P(8 < X < 15)

 Exam Tip
Always make sure you are using the correct function on your calculator. Most
questions will be in context so try and pick out the key words and numbers. If
the question is worth more than one mark then be sure to show a method to get
at least one mark if you write the answer down incorrectly.

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