Gal·la Farnós Solà SEA Unit 1

State of the World and causes of unsustainability

SO HOW IS THE WORLD DIVIDED? 4 LEVELS
- Level 4:1,9 children
- Level 3: 2,4 children
- Level 2: 2,5 children
- Level 1: 5 children (1 dies)
SOME ECOLOGIC DATA
o The environment is comprised of all our planetary surroundings:
▪ Biosphere or set of all the living beings
▪ Hydrosphere or set of all the water
▪ Atmosphere or gas planetary covering
▪ Lithosphere or set of the planetary rocks, with special attention to the fertile soil
o The carrying capacity of an ecosystem for a given species is the maximum number of individuals that it can
support indefinitely
o The ecological footprint is the area required to provide all the materials and services we need (home, feeding,
energy, materials and absorption of our wastes)
o By the 1970s we began to consume more resources than the Earth can produce (ecological footprint)
o The world average is 1.75 planets, for USA 5. Overshoot day is when we begin to live on credit
o The planet's temperature has increased more than 1 Celsius degree since 1970, and according to ALL models
that explain its behaviour, it will continue increasing
o The IPCC, according to the actions that we will take has proposed three scenarios for the next 1000 years:
pessimistic (increase by 6 to 8.5 degrees), intermediate (2 to 4.5) and optimistic (1 to 2.6 degrees). This Campus
is 3m over sea level, and it has already risen 1.6 m in 100 years
o The ozone layer hole seems to finally begin to close (thanks to Montreal Protocol from 1987)
o Biodiversity keeps on declining. We kill insects and therefore common birds, other birds return
o Grain cultivation seems to only oscillate slightly from year to year but is affected by droughts (and biofuels).
More countries import it
o Production of meat and eggs keeps on rising
o More fishing farms the sea is overexploited, more acid, contains less nitrogen and more plastics
o Bottled water consumption is a huge problem
o BAD TENDENCY (EUROPEAN INDICATORS)
SOME ECONOMIC DATA. COUNTRIES
o The richest 1% has more than 44% of the global wealth. 10 men are richer than 3.1 billion people
o Even though for 25 years the number of people living in extreme poverty halved, most of them live in moderate
poverty. The trend is reverting
o Inequality between rich and poor has augmented since the Great Recession (2008-2014) and even more through
the COVID-19 pandemic
o The 10 richest men have doubled their wealth during the pandemic. The 20 richest persons emit 8,000 times
more CO2 than the poorest billion
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o In 2020, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, we had the only percentage increase in poor people for 30 years
(minimal decrease in 2021). Now we estimate that 698 million people living on less than 1.9$ a day (absolute
poverty), and we have 828 million hungry people, this number also decreased for 30 years but is rising from
2015, and even more with COVID-19. According to some estimations 25,000 people die from hunger daily
o 2.2 billion people do not have guarantee of safe drinking water (4,000 children die daily because of it), and 4.2
billion people lack safe sanitation
o Half of the girls dropping out of school do it because of the absence of adequate latrines
o Public aid to development has dropped, but NGOs have become more efficient
o For 15 years the ratio of malnourished people decreased (18% to 9%) but it is slowly AUGMENTING in number
from 2014, and now it is even increasing in percentage
o We have enough food (on a basically vegetarian diet for everyone (up to 12 billion people but we waste 30 to
40% of food)
o We spent 20 years without hunger emergencies but starting from 2011 they reappeared: first the Horn of Africa
and later Sahel suffered the worst drought in 60 years (we had the driest winter in 60 years). Global warming
and war added South Sudan (last independent country) and later Somalia, Yemen and Nigeria (3 causes: failed
state, war and terrorism).
o 1 billion people live in slums
o At least 400 million have no health care, (and 1.6 billion very fragile) half a million mothers die each year from
complications of childbirth (95% in poor countries) leaving 1 million orphans
SOME SOCIAL DATA
o 57% of the population already lives in cities
o Birth rate goes down but population still goes up (we are 8 billion people, expected to reach 9.7 in 2050 and a
maximum of 10.4 billion in 2080)
o Environment and global warming are already causing around tens of millions of environmental refugees, more
than wars do
o The number armed conflicts keep relatively high because of the Arab Winter and some ethnic wars plus the
Russian invasion of Ukraine
o Basic education enhances notably
o Child labor and black market remain. Some 300 million working children, and some 250 million unemployed
adults
o Social differences between men and women decrease but very slowly. We will expand it later
o Vaccination campaigns increase, but a group of diseases of the poor remain (tuberculosis, malaria, cholera and
AIDS). Rich countries buy many more COVID-19 vaccines than they need, 130 countries have” none”
o Semen quality declines worldwide
o Obesity is pandemic
FOR THE FIRST TIME in human history:
o More people are in risk for eating too much instead of too little
o Suicide is more probable than murder
o Cancer, heart malfunction and other age-related diseases are more dangerous than transmitted diseases
o The percentage of poor, malnourished and uneducated people without health reduced to 10%. Inequality
increased and we fear a rebound.
o 750 million girls were forcefully married before they were 18, and 250 million suffered female genital mutilation
(in 30 countries). These numbers go steadily down
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o In 18 countries husbands have more authority than wives, in 39 inheritance is discriminated and in 49 there are
no laws against domestic violence
o Globally, one in four women suffered physical or sexual violence from past or present partner
o Women have smaller salaries, less property and less political power worldwide. Progress towards equality is
slow
HISTORICAL CAUSES OF UNSUSTAINABILITY
o Since the beginning of our history as a species (at least 200,000 years ago) we have always had:
▪ Oral communication
▪ Technology (inherited), including
- Use of fire (controlled at least 0.5 M years before)
- Stone tools (at least 2.4 M years before)
o Those devices were enough to provoke mass extinctions (probably in America) and ecological transformations
in whole continents (Australia)
o About 10,000 years ago we started accumulating resources. As either cause or consequence, we surpassed and
increased the carrying capacity of the planet (by reducing biodiversity)
o We have always tended to unsustainability (initially limited by our small number), with brief spells of
sustainability
o 1000 years ago: In Western Europe the (current) concepts of market and the prestige of technology for practical
purposes appear
o From 1600: Emergence of modern science
o From 1700: Absolute faith in reason and human progress
o From 1800: Industrial Revolution
o From 1900: Mass and chain production
o 1930's: Western crisis (Great Depression) caused by speculation, inequalities, overproduction and
protectionism. Does it ring any bell?
o 1950's: Design and implementation of the current consumerist model
o 1960s: Brutal increase in the world population
o 1970s: Global consumption of resources exceeds the carrying capacity of the planet. First global energetic crisis
(oil)
o 1980s: Second global energy crisis. Neoliberal economic policy: the free market will solve everything.
o 1990s: Fall of (nearly all) communist governments
o Year 2000: Burst of the speculative bubble of “.com” enterprises. Very low interest rates and global economy
working on credit. Acceleration of the housing bubble
o 2005: free movement of capital and global uncontrolled speculation
o 2007: Outbreak of the housing bubble, speculation moves to stocks, food and oil
o 2008: Burst of all the other bubbles, dragging with them banks, credit, confidence, industries… (Great
Recession)
o 2009: The G-20 promises to rebuild the capitalist system and eliminate tax havens
o 2011: Speculation increases again in food, sovereign debt and oil. UE and IMF impose cuts on education and
health
o 2012: Many European countries intervened
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o 2014: Some European countries (austerity policy) join the previous and weak recovery of USA (public
investment policy). Practically everywhere inequality has increased, the public money has ended in private
hands
o Also 2014: Russia annexes the Crimean Peninsula (Ukraine), only gets economic sanctions and the expulsion
from G-8 (G-7)
o 2020: Inequality and protectionism (Trump) threatened new crisis. Coronavirus
o 2020: Lockdowns in many countries, the Great Confinement (in Spain from March to June). Economy comes
to a partial halt. Manual jobs are lost or continue at risky conditions, intermediate jobs turn remote. Rich people
get richer.
o 2021: Recovery from halted economy is very difficult, raw materials, chips and energy are much more
expensive. Tourism is local and limited
o In two years, 160 million people are thrown to absolute poverty. Inequality, hunger, exhausted agriculture, lack
of investment in infrastructure, waste generation, unemployment, terrorism and wars worsen. Governments
protect only their citizen’s health
o 2022: at the end of February Russia invaded Ukraine, but we can assume that hostilities began in 2014. 9.1
million refugees so far (well received in Europe). Sanctions against Russia impoverish Europe
o 2022: Tourism recovers very fast in some countries, but inflation is huge, euro is below dollar parity, energy
skyrockets, cereals are blocked, there is a terrible drought (these two factors affecting Africa especially), record-
breaking heat waves (London at 40 Celsius degrees for first time in history) and finally the Russian threat not
to supply gas this winter. Everyone foresees a new recession this autumn
TECHNOLOGY AS A PROBLEM
Technology (including agriculture from millennia ago, and the use of fire and stone tools since “always”) produces:
o Chemical pollution of our atmosphere:
▪ Direct toxicity, by gases SO2 , NO2 , O3 , H2S, CO, CH4 , Cl2 , HCl, and the presence of different
suspended particles, including lead (Pb)
▪ Destruction of the ozone layer, by the effect of CFC, HCFC (refrigeration and propellants), NOx
(aviation), CH4 (agriculture and livestock) and different bromine gases (flame retardants and
agriculture)
▪ Warming by greenhouse effect, by gases CO2, CFC, SO2 , NOx , CH4 , water vapor and dust
▪ Corrosive effect on materials. Gases SoX and NOx also cause acid rain
o Degradation of the hydrosphere. Only a 0,007% of existing water is directly accessible, and we exploit it
unsustainably, 70% for agriculture, 20% for industry and 10% for human consumption. And water also suffers
from chemical and organic pollution
o Degradation of the lithosphere. The natural soil is destroyed as slowly as it is formed, but we add up: Pollution
by Pb, Zn, Cd, U, Sd, As and F, Erosion, which leaves the bare dust and rock exposed, Salinization, Flood and
Desertification
o Noise and vibrations. The effects on health are similar to those caused by fear or stress. Also, vibrations can
adversely affect the stability of structures and buildings
o Radioactive pollution. Radioactivity includes ionizing electromagnetic waves emissions (X-rays and gamma
rays, capable of tearing electrons out) and particles resulting from the breaking of atoms. Radiation can be lethal,
cause cancer, abortions, malformations, sterility, disturbances of various organs and malfunction with or without
permanent harm of our nervous system
o Non-ionizing electromagnetic pollution
▪ Thermal pollution, inevitable, according to the second law of Thermodynamics, all the energy we use
will eventually be degraded into useless heat
▪ Light, in principle minor effects
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▪ Pollution by non-ionizing electromagnetic waves. Electrophysiological processes can disrupt the
nervous, muscular and endocrine systems, interfere with pacemakers and locally produce heat
accumulation
o Pollution by space debris
o Natural resources depletion
o Biodiversity loss
o Worsening of the gap between rich and poor
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND POLITICA AS A SOLUTION
o Technology has fed and kept healthy a huge population. All the problems caused by its use except thermal
pollution are due to technical imperfections or misuse
o Science must predict and guide technology and political decisions
o Politicians, with global and long-term vision must use science and technology to pursue sustainable
development. In the 1990's (Rio 1992 crystallized in Kyoto 1997) some managed to lay the first stones, but
USA (the only country that did not ratified Kyoto) and China (without obligations according to Kyoto) resisted
new treaties. Paris Agreement is only voluntary and both countries presented delayed (in every sense) plans