MODULE 2.

1
Chapter
5 Probability and Counting Rules

Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, the students will able to:
o Determine the sample space, event, and outcome of a probability experiment.
o Find the probability of compound events using addition rules and multiplication
rules.
o Find the total outcomes in a sequence of events, using the fundamental counting
rule
o Find the number ways that r objects can be selected from n objects, using
permutation rule and combination rule.
o Find the probability of an event, using counting rules.
o Find the marginal and conditional probabilities of events.
o Create a probability distribution for a random variable.
o Calculate the mean, variance, standard deviation, and expected value for a discrete
random variable.
o Compute the binomial and Poisson probability distribution.
Chapter Outline
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Counting Rules
5.3 Sample space and Probability
5.4 The Addition Rules and Multiplication Rules for Probability
5.5 Marginal and Conditional Probabilities
5.6 Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distribution
5.7 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and Mathematical Expectation
5.8 Binomial Probability Distribution
5.9 Poisson Probability Distribution

Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculator.

-Pierre Simon Laplace (1149-1827)
 5.1 Introduction

In this chapter we will deal with some counting techniques without direct enumeration
of the number of possible outcomes of a particular experiment or the number of elements
in particular set. Such techniques are sometimes called combinatorial analysis.
Also we will deal with probability theory. These include topics such as probability
distribution, mathematical expectation, binomial distribution, and Poisson distribution.

5.1 Counting Rules

Fundamental Counting Rule

Sum Rule. Suppose that an event can be performed by either of two different procedures,
with m possible outcomes for the first procedure and n possible outcomes for the second.
If the two sets of possible outcomes is disjoint, then the number of possible outcomes for
the event is

m+n (Formula 5-1)

Product Rule. In a sequence of n events in which the first has m possibilities and the second
event has n2, and the third has n3, and so forth, the total number of probabilities of the
sequence will be

n1(n2)(n3)…(nk) (Formula 5-2)

Example for Sum Rule: A scholarship is available, and the professor to receive this
scholarship must be chosen from the Accountancy, Business Administration or Tourism
Department. How many different choices are there for these scholarship if there are 15
qualified professors from the Accountancy Department, 50 qualified professors from the
Business Administration Department and 26 qualified professors from the Tourism
Department?

Solution:
The procedure of choosing a from the Accountancy Department has 15 possible outcomes,
the procedure of choosing professor from the Business Administration Department has 50
possible outcomes, and a procedure of choosing a professor from the Tourism Department
has 26 possible outcomes.
Therefore, there are 15+50+26= 91 possible choices to award the scholarship.

Example for Product Rule: A student has a choice of 5 sandwiches and 6 juices. In how
many ways can he choose 1 sandwich and 1 juice?

Solution:
He can choose a sandwich in 5 ways, and with each of these choices there are 6 ways of
choosing a juice.
Hence, the required number of ways =5(6) =30 ways.

Factorial Notation: n! (which read “n factorial”) is the product of the first inconsecutive
natural numbers. 0! is defined to be 1.

n!= n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)…(3)(2)(1) (Formula 5-3)

Example 3: Evaluate the following:

a. 1! = 1
b. 3! = 3(2)(1) = 6
c. 5! = 5(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120
d. 6! – 4! = [6(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
e. 2!(3!) =2(1)[3(2)(1)] = 2(6) = 12
10! 10(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) 3,628,800
f. = = = 30,240
5! 5(4)(3)(2)(1) 120

Permutation. A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a number of things (or

objects) in a definite order. The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is
given by

𝑛!
P (n, r) =n P r = , 0 ≤ r ≤ n. (Formula 5-4)
(𝑛−𝑟)!

Permutations with Repeated Elements. It is often happens that object which are virtually
identical get arranged. Our inability to distinguish between this items reduces the number
of possible permutations by the number of ways these identical items themselves can be
arranged.

𝑛!
Pn = ... where n1 + n2 + n3 ...= n (Formula 5-5)
𝑛1!(𝑛2!)(𝑛3!)

Circular Permutations. When things are arranged in places along a closed curve or a
circle, in which any place may be regarded as the first or last place, they form a circular
permutations. Thus, with n distinguishable objects we have (n - 1)! arrangements. In
symbol,

Pc = (n - 1) (Formula 5-6)

Example 4: Evaluate the following:

4! 4! 4(3)(2)(1)! 24
a. P(4,0) =
(4−0)!
= = = =1
4! 4(3)(2)(1)! 24
 5! 5! 5(4)(3)(2)(1) 120
b. P(5,2) = = = = = 20
(5 − 2)! 3! 3(2)(1) 6

7! 7! 7(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) 5040
P (7, 7) =
(7−7)!
= = = = 5,040
0! 1 1

Example 5: How many different ways can a manager and a supervisor can be selected for
a company branch in Manila if there are 8 employees available?

Solution:
Since order is important for the managerial and supervisor position we would need to apply
permutation. Then,
8! 8! 8(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) 40,320
P (8, 2) =
(8−2)! 6!
= = = = 56
6(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) 720
Hence, there would be 56 ways to select a manager and a supervisor.

Example 6: How many different ways can 5 televisions commercial can be played during
a 30-minute television program?

Solution:
Since order is important, the solution is
5! 5! 5(4)(3)(2)(1) 120
P (5, 5) =
(5−5)!
= = = = 120
0! 1 1
Hence, there would be 120 ways to set up to commercials.

Example 7: In how many ways can 4 students be seated at a round table?

Solution:
Let one of them be seated anywhere. Then the 3 remaining can be seated in 3! ways.
Thus there are Pc= (n-1)! = (4-1)! =3! =6 ways of arranging for 4 persons in a circle

Example 8: There are 4 copies of Statistics book, 5 copies of Probability book, and 3 copies
of Forecasting book. In how many ways can they be arranged on a shelf?

Solution:
There are 4 + 5 + 3 = 12 books of which are 4 copies of Statistics book, 5 copies of
Probability book, and 3 copies of Forecasting book.

The number of arrangements is

𝑛! 12!
Pn= = =27,720
𝑛1!𝑛2!𝑛3! 4!(5!)(3!)

Combination. A combination is a grouping or selection of all or part of a number of

things (or objects) without reference to the arrangement of the things selected. The number
of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is given by
 𝑛𝑃𝑟 𝑛!
C (n, r)=nCr =(𝑛𝑟)= = (𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟! , 0≤r≤n (Formula 5-7)
𝑟!

Combinations of different things taken any number at a time. The total number of
combinations Cn of n different things taken 1, 2, 3,.., n at a time is

Cn=2n -1 (Formula 5-8)

Example 9: Evaluate the following:

5 5! 5! (4)(3)(2)(1) 120 120

a. C(5,0)=(0)= = = = = =1
(5−0)!0! 5!(0!) 5(4)(3)(2)(1)[1] 120(1) 120

4! 4! 4(3)(2)(1) 24 24
b. C(4,4)=(44) =(4−4)!4! = =(1)[4(3)(2)(1)]= = =1
0!(4!) 1(24) 24

6! 6! 6(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) 720 720

c. C(6,2)= (62)=(6−2)!2! = = = = =15
41(2!) 4(3)(2)(1)[2(1)] 24(2) 48

Example 10: In how many ways can board members be selected out of 15 board members
of a company to represent the body of the stockholders meeting?

Solution:
Since this is combination problem, the answer is

15! 15 15(14)(13)(12)(11!)
C (15, 4) = = = =1,365
(15−4)!4! 11!(4!) 11!(4)(3)(2)(1)

Hence, there would be 1,365 ways to be select a committee to represent the body.

Example 11: How many different sums of money can be drawn from a wallet containing
o e bill of each of 20, 50, 100, 200, and 500 pesos?

Solution:
Each bill may be dealt with two ways, as it can be chosen or not. Since each of the two
ways of dealing with a bill is associated with two ways of dealing with the 5 bills=2(2) (2)
(2) (2) =25 ways. But 25 ways includes the case which no bill is chosen.

Hence, the required number of ways in Cn=2n - 1=25- 1=32 - 1=31 ways.
Or we can solve the problem in different way such as

Cn = C(5,1)+C(5,2)+C(5,3)+C(5,4)+C(5,5)=5+10+10+5+1=31

Take not that we did not consider C (5, 0) because it refers to not taking any bill among the
5 peso bills.

Figure 1 shows the appropriate counting technique in different situations.

 Figure 5.1: Counting Technique Procedures

5.3 Sample Spaces and Probability

This section of the chapter discussed some basic concepts of probability, types, and
rules. The process of flipping a coin, rolling die, or drawing a card from an ordinary deck
of cards refers to probability experiments, and also defined as a chance process that leads
to well defined results called outcome.

A.Sample Space
An outcome is a result of a single trial of a probability experiment, while a sample
space is a set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
We can also represent the sample space using a Venn diagram or tree diagram. A
Venn diagram a picture that deficits all possible outcomes for an experiment, while tree
diagram is a device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and in its
outcome point and it determines all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Table 5.1: Example of Experiments, Outcomes, and Sample Spaces

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail S={Head, Tail}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S={HH, HT, TH, TT}
Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6 S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Exam Result Pass, Fail S={Pass, Fail}
Game Result Win, Lose S={Win, Lose}

Example 1: Determine the sample space for rolling two dice.

Solution:
Given that each die can land in 6 different ways, two dice (or pair of dice) are rolled, the
same space can be presented by an array. Table 5.2 shows the list of pairs of sample.

Table 5.2: Sample Space Rolling Two Dice

Die 2
Die 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
Example 2: Determine the sample space for drawing one card from ordinary deck of cards.

Solution:
Given that there are 4 suits (diamonds, clubs, heart, and spades) and 13 for each suits (ace
through king), there are 52 outcomes in the sample space for an ordinary deck of cards.
Figure 5.2 shows the sample space for ordinary deck of cards.

Figure 5.2: Sample Space for Ordinary Deck of Cards

Example 3: Determine the sample space for the three True or False quiz. Use tree diagram
to represent the sample space.

Solution:
There are two possible outcomes, True or False, and each question could either be True or
False.
Hence there are eight possibilities, as shown in Figure 5.3.

Figure 5.3: Tree Diagram for Three True or False Quiz

Start

True False 1st Quarter

2nd Quarter
 True False True False

True False True False True False True False 3rd

Quarter
TTT TTF TFT TFF FTT FTF FFT FFF
Outcomes
B. Simple and Compound Events
An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment, it maybe a simple
event or a compound event. A simple event is an event that includes one and only one of
the outcomes for an experiment and is denoted by E, it is also called the elementary event.
On the other hand, a compound event is a collection of more than one outcome for an
experiment; it is called a composite event.
Example: In a group of Catholic Christian, some are in favor of death penalty as major
punishment for heinous crimes and others are against it. Three persons are selected in
random and asked whether they are in favor of or against death penalty. How many distinct
outcomes are possible? List all the outcomes included in each of following events and
mention whether they are simple or compound events?
a. All three persons are in favor of death penalty.
b. At least one person is in favor of death penalty.
c. Exactly one person is against death penalty.

Solution:

Let F=a person is in favor of death penalty as major punishment for heinous crimes.
A=a person is against death penalty as major punishment for heinous crimes.
This experiment has the following 8 outcomes: FFF, FFA, FAF, AFF, FAA, AFA, AAF,
AAA.
a. The event "all three persons are in favor of death penalty" will occur if FFF is obtained.
Thus,
All three persons are in favor of death penalty = {FFF}
Because this event includes only one of the eight outcomes, it is simple event.
b. The event "At least one person is in favor of death penalty" will occur if one of the
person is in
favor, or two of the persons are in favor, or three of the persons are in favor. Thus,
At least one person is in favor of death penalty ={FAA, AFA, AAF, FFA, FAF,
AFF, FFF}
Because this event includes more than one outcome, it is a compound event.
c. The event "Exactly one person is against death penalty" will occur if one of the three
persons selected are against death penalty. Thus, it includes the three possible outcomes:
Exactly one person is against death penalty = {FFA, FAF, AFF}
Because this event includes more than one outcome, it is compound event.
C. Probability
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur.
An event that cannot occur has zero probability which is called an impossible event and if
an event that is certain to occur has a probability equal to 1 which is called sure event.
There are four basic probability rules that will be helpful in solving probability problems.
a. The probability of an event is within the range 0 to 1.
0≤P(E)≤1.
b. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for an experiment is always 1.
For an experiment: ∑ P(Ei) = P(E1)+P(E2)+P(E3)+…=1
c. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
d. If an event is certain, then the probability is 1.
Complimentary Events. The complement of an event E is a set of outcomes in the sample
space that are not included in the outcome of event E. The complement of E is denoted by
E'(read as E prime). The rule for complementary events are denoted by
P(E') = 1 - P(E) or P(E) = 1 - P(E') or P(E)+P(E') = 1 (Formula
5-9)
D. Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability
a. Classical Probability. Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the
sample space are equally likely to occur.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑛(𝐸)

P(E) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 = 𝑛(𝑆) (Formula 5-10)

b. Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability. Empirical probability is tje type

of probability that uses frequency distribution based on observations to
determine numerical probabilities of events.
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓
P(E) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛
c. Subjective Probability. Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an
event based on subjective judgment, experience, information, and belief. For
example, a sportswriter may say that there is 90% probability that San Sebastian
Stags will win the NCAA championships. A physician may say that, on the
basis of his diagnosis, there is a 60% chance that the patient will recover. A
financial analysis may say that there is 80% probability that peso dollar
exchange rate will decrease by 3 pesos.

Example for Classical Probability: A card is drawn from a ordinary deck of card. Find
these probabilities (a) of getting king of hearts, (b) of getting spade, (c) of getting a 5 or a
club (d) of getting a 5 or a 7, (e) of getting a card which is not a spade, (f) of getting 11 of
clubs.

Solution:
a. Since there is only one king pf hearts in an event E and 52 possible outcomes in the
sample
space.The probability of getting king of heart is
𝑛(𝐸) 1
P(king of hearts) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52
 b. There are 13 spades so there are 13 outcomes in an event E, the probability of a
getting a spade is

𝑛(𝐸) 13
P(spade)= = = 1/4
𝑛(𝑆) 52

c. There are four 5s and 13 spades in an event E, but the 5 of spades are counted twice
in this listing. Thus, there 16 possibilities of drawing a 5 or a spade, so
𝑛(𝐸) 4+13−1 16 4
P(5 or spade) = = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 52 13
This is an example of the inclusive or.
d. Given that there are four 5s and four 7s,
𝑛(𝐸) 4+4 8 2
P(5 or 7) = = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52 52 13
This is an example of the exclusive or.

e. Recall that P(spade) = ¼, we simply deduct this to 1 to obtained the probability of

getting a non-spade card. We will use P(E') = 1 - P(E), where P(E') is the probability
of getting a non-spade card.
𝑛(𝐸) 1 4 1 3
P(E') = 1 - P(E)= 1 - =1- = - =
𝑛(𝑆) 4 4 4 4

f. It is impossible to get an 11 of clubs in the sample space of an ordinary deck of

card. Hence, the probability is
𝑛(𝐸) 0
P(11) )= =0
𝑛(𝑆) 52
This is an example of impossible event.

Example for Empirical Probability: In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are freshmen,

23 are sophomore, 2 are junior, and 7 are senior. Set up a frequency distribution and find
the following probabilities:
a. a student is a freshman.
b. a student is a freshman or sophomore.
c. a student is neither a freshman nor a junior.
d. a student is not a senior.

Solution:
Year Levels Frequency
Freshmen 18
Sophomore 23
Junior 2
Senior 7
Total 50
 a. To obtain the probability of selecting a freshmen we simply divide the number of
freshmen by the sample space.
𝑛(𝐸) 18 9
P(freshmen) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 50 25
b. We need to add the frequency of the two level (or classes).
𝑛(𝐸) 18+23 41
P(freshman or sophomore) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 50 50
c. Note that neither a freshman nor a junior means that the student is either a
sophomore or a senior.
P(neither a freshman nor a junior)= P(sophomore or senior)
𝑛(𝐸) 23+7 30 3
P(sophomore or senior) = = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 50 50 5
d. In order to find the probability of not a senior, we need to subtract the probability
of senior from 1.
𝑛(𝐸) 7 50 7 43
P(not a senior) = 1 - P(senior) = 1- = 1- = - =
𝑛(𝑆) 50 50 50 50

5.4 The Addition Rules and Multiplication Rules for Probability

A lot of problems involve determining ng probability of two or more events. This is

when independent, dependent, and mutually exclusive comes into the picture in dealing
with probability.
There are important notes to think about mutually exclusive, independent, and
dependent events. The first is of which is mutually exclusive are always dependent,
secondly is independent events are never mutually exclusive, and lastly is dependent events
may or may not be mutually exclusive. The exception of first and second is that when at
least one of the two events has a zero probability.

A. Independent, Dependent, Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect
the probability of B occurring. In other words, A and B are independent events if

P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)

Two events A and B are dependent events for which the outcome or occurrence of
event A affects the outcome or occurrence of event B in such a way that the probability is
changed. In other words, A and B are dependent events if

P(A|B) ≠ P(A) or P(B|A) ≠ P(B)

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same
time.
B. Addition Rules for Probability
Rule 1: When two events A and B are mutually exclusive,
the probability that A or B will occur is P(A)
P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B) (Formula 5-12)
P(S) = 1

Rule 2: If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) (Formula 5-13)
P(S) = 1 P(A) P(B)

Note: Addition Rule 1 can also be used when the events are mutually exclusive, since
P(A and B) will always equal to 0

Example 1: A box contains 4 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 7 green marbles. If a person
selects a marble at random, find the probability that is either a red or a green marbles.
Solution:
Since the box contains 4 red marbles, 7 green marbles, and a total of 19 marbles, P(red or
4 7 11
green) = P(red)+ P(green) = + =
9 19 19
The events are mutually exclusive.
Example 2: A single card in drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find the probability
that it is a queen and once as a diamond; thus, one of the outcomes must be deducted, as
shown.
P(queen or diamond) = P(queen)+P(diamond)-P(queen and diamond)
4 13 1 16
= + - =
52 52 52 52

Example 3: In a certain insurance company there are 20 senior and 20 junior salesperson;
8 senior and 14 junior salespersons are males. If a salesperson is selected, find the
probability that the salesperson is a senior or a male.

Solution:

The sample space is shown here.

Salesperson Male Female Total
Senior 8 12 20
Junior 14 16 30
Total 22 28 50

The probability is P(senior or female) = P(senior)+P(female) - P(female and senior)

 20 28 12 36 18
= + - = =
50 50 50 50 25

C. Multiplication Rules for Probability

The multiplication rules can be applied to determine the probability of two or more
events that occur in sequence. The probability of the intersection of two events is called
their joint probability. It is written as P(A and B). These rules are for independent or
dependent events.

Rule 1: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
P(A and B)= P(A)•P(B) (Formula 5-14)

Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
P(A and B)= P(A)•P(A|B) (Formula 5-15)

Rule 3: When two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is always zero. If
A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then
P(A and B)=0 (Formula 5-16)

Note: Multiplication Rule 1 can be extended to three or more independent events by applying the formula
P(N1 and N2 and N3 ...and Nk) = P(N1)•P(N2)•P(N3)•••P(NK)
Example 4: A die is rolled and a coin is flipped. Find the probability of getting a 5 on the
die and tail on the coin.
Solution:
1 1 1
P(5 and tail)= P(5)•P(tail) = ( )=
6 2 12
Recall that the sample space for the die is 1,2,3,4,5,6; and for the coin it is Head, Tail.

Example 5: A box contains 3 red balls, 8 blue balls, and 9 green balls. A first ball is
selected, and then it is replaced. A second ball is selected. Find the probability of selecting:
(a) 2 red balls, (b) 1 blue ball and then 1 green ball.

Solution:
3 3 9
a. P(red and red)= P(red)•P(red)= ( )=
20 20 20
8 9 72 9
b. P(blue and green)= P(blue)•P(green)= 20 (20) = 400 = 50

Example 6: A SJS survey found that one out of 5 Filipinos say they are in favor of the
death penalty for heinous crimes. If the people are selected at random, find the probability
that all three will say that they are in favor of death penalty.

Solution:
Let D denote that a person is in favor of death penalty. Then
1 1 1 1
P(D and D and D)= P(D)•P(D)•P(D)= 5 (5)(5) = 20
Example 7: Reina owns a collection of 25 bags, of which 6 are made by Guess. If the two
bags are selected at random, find the probability that both are made by Guess.

Solution:
Since the events are dependent
6 30 1
P(G1 and G2)= P(G1)•P(G2|G2)= 25 = = 20
600

Example 8: The RSS Financing Inc. found that 50% of the members had salary loan(S)
with the financing company. Of these members 8% also had a calamity loan(C). If a
member is selected at random find the probability that the member has both loans with the
company.

Solution:
Note that the events are dependent,
P(S and C)= P(S)•P(C|S)= 0.50(0.08)=0.04 or 4%

5.5 Marginal and Conditional Probabilities

A. Marginal Probability.Marginal probability is a probability of a single event without

consideration of any other event; it is also called single probability. It can be computed
using the formula
P(A)= P(A and B1)+P(A and B2)+...+P(A and Bk) (Formula
5-17)
where B1,B2, ... Bk, are k mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events.
Recall that two events are mutually exclusive if both the events cannot occur
simultaneous, while collectively exhaustive if one of the events must occur.
B. Conditional Probability. Conditional probability is probability that an event will occur
given that another event has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the
conditional probability is given as P(A|B) and reads as "the probability of A given that B
has already occurred." In symbol,
P(A|B)= P(B and A)/P(B) and P(B|A)= P(A and B)/P(A) (Formula
5-18)
given that P(B)≠ 0 and P(A) ≠ 0.
Example 1: A box contains blue and red balls. A person selects two balls without
replacement. If the probability of selecting a blue ball and a red ball is 12/30, and a
probability of selecting a blue ball on the first draw is 3/5, find the probability of selecting
a red ball on the second draw, given that the first ball selected was a blue ball.
Solution:
Let B = selecting a blue ball.
 R = selecting a red ball.
Then
12
𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅) 30 12 5 60 2
P(R|B)= = 3 = 30 . 3 = =3
𝑃(𝐵) 90
5

Thus, the probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw given that the first ball
selected was blue is ⅔.
Example 2: In a fast-food chain, 75% of the costumers orders chicken meal. If 40% of the
costumers order the chicken meal and sundae, find the probability that the customer orders
chicken meal will also order a sundae.
Solution:
Let C = the customer orders chicken meal.
S = the customer orders sundae.
Then
𝑃(𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆) 40% 0.40 8
P(S|C) = = 75% = 0.75= 15
𝑃(𝐶)

Thus, the costumer has a 8/15 probability of ordering sundae, given that he ordered chicken
meal.
132
Example 3: A survey conducted by WSS asked 250 whether or not they have shopped on
the new Shopping Mall. The following table gives the two-way classification of the
responses.
Gender Have shopped Have never shopped Total
Male 20 70 90
Female 130 30 160
Total 150 100 250

Suppose one person is selected at random from these 250 persons. Find the following
probabilities.
a. The respondent answered has shopped, given that the respondent is a male.
b. The respondent is a female, given that the respondent answered has never shopped.
Solution:
Let M = respondent is a male.
F = respondent is a female.
S = have shopped.
 N = have never shopped.
a. The problem to find P(S|M). The rule states
𝑃(𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆)
P(S|M) = 𝑃(𝑀)

The probability P(S and M) is the number of males who shopped, divided by the
number of respondents.
20
P(M and S) =250

The probability P(M) is the probability of selecting a male:

90
P(M) = 250

Then
𝑃(𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆) 20/250 20 250 2
P(S|M) = = 90/250 = 250 ∙ =9
𝑃(𝑀) 90

b. The problem is to find P(F|N)

30
𝑃(𝑁 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆) 250 30 250 3
P(F|N) = = 100 = 250 ∙ 100 = 10
𝑃(𝑁)
250

5.6 Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distribution

Suppose Table 5.3 shows the frequency and relative frequency distribution of the
number of TV owned by 500 families residing in the City of Manila.
133

Table 5.3: Frequency and Relative Frequency Distributions of the number of TVs
owned by City of Manila Families
Numbers of TVs owned Frequency Relative frequency
0 34 34/500 = 0.068
1 316 316/500 = 0.632
2 132 132/500 = 0.264
3 18 18/500 = 0.036
N=500 Sum = 1.000
Suppose one family is randomly selected from this population. The process of randomly
selecting a family is called a random or chance experiment. Let X denotes the number of
TVs owned by the selected family. Then X can assume any of the 4 possible values (0, 1,
2, and 3) recorded in the leftmost column of the table. The value assumed by X depends
on the family is selected. Hence, this value depends on the outcome of an random
experiment. Therefore, X is referred to random variable. A random variable is a function
or rule that assigns a number to each outcome of an experiment, it is called chance variable.
In general, a random variable is denoted by X. A random variable can be discrete or
continuous. A discrete random variable assumes values that can be counted, while discrete
random variable that can assume all values between any two specific values; a variable
obtained by measuring or are contained one or more intervals.
A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can
assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are determined
theoritically or by observation. There are several requirements for a distribution of a
discrete random variable. For a discrete random variable X that can assume values Xi,
1. 0≤P(X)≤1, for all Xi(The probability outcome is between 0 and 1).
2. (The sum of all possible outcomes is 1.0)
3. The listing is exhaustive (all possible outcomes are included).
4. The outcomes are mutually exclusive (The outcomes cannot occur at the same
time).
Example 1: Construct a probability distribution for rolling a die.
Solution:
Since the sample spaces of a die is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and each outcome has a probability of
1/6, the number of tails.
Outcome X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability P(X) 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄
6 6 6 6 6 6

Example 2: Construct a probability distribution for tossing three coins. Let X represents
the number of tails.
Solution:
When three coins are tossed, the sample space represented as HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,
HTT, THT, TTH, TTT; and if X is the random variable for the number of tails, thenX
assumes the value 0,1,2, or 3.Probabilities for the values X can be determined as follows:
No tails One tail Two Three
tails tails
HHH HHT HTH THH HTT THT TTH TTT
1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
1⁄ 3⁄ 3⁄ 1⁄
8 8 8 8
Hence, the probability of getting no tails is ⅛, one tail is ⅜, two tails ⅜, and three tails is
⅛. From these results, a probability distribution can be constructed by listing the outcomes
and assigning the probability of each outcome, as presented here.
Number of tails 0 1 2 3
Probability(X) 1⁄ 3⁄ 3⁄ 1⁄
8 8 8 8

Example 3: A wallet containing four ₱100 bills, two ₱200 bills, three ₱500 bills, and one
₱1,000 bill. Construct a probability distribution for the data.
Solution:
The probability P(X) can be calculated for each X by dividing the number of particular
bills by the total number of bills.
4
For ₱100 bills: = 0.40
10
2
For ₱200 bills: = 0.20
10
3
For ₱500 bills: = 0.30
10
1
For ₱1,000 bills: = 0.10
10

The probability is shown here:

Number of bills X ₱100 bills ₱200 bills ₱500 bills ₱1,000bills
Probability (X) 0.40 0.20 0.30 0.10

5.7 Means Variance Standard Deviation Mathematical Expectation

The mean, variance, and standard deviation for a probability distribution are
calculated differently from the mean, variance, and standard deviation for samples. This
section enlightens how this measures-and a new measure called the expectations-are
computed for probability distributions.
A. The Mean of a Probability Distribution
The mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is
M= X1•P(X1)+X2•P(X2)+X3•P(X3)+ ...+Xn•P(Xn)= E[X•P(X)]
(Formula 5-19)
where X1, X2, X3,...Xn = the outcomes.
P(X1), P(X2), P(X3),...P(Xn) = the corresponding probabilities.
E[X•P(X)] = means to sum the products.
B. Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution
The variance of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑥 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇 2 (Formula
5-20)
The standard deviation of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is

𝜎 = √𝜎 2 or𝜎 = √∑[𝑥 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇 2 (Formula 5-21)

C. Expected Value
The expected value of a discrete random variable of a probability distribution is the
theoretical
theoretical average of the variable. The formula is
M= ∑(X)= ∑[X•P(X)] (Formula
5-22)
The symbol E(X) is used for the expected value.
Example 1: Five balls numbered 1,2,3,4 and 5/are placed in a box. One is selected, its
number is noted, and then it is replaced. If this experiment is repeated many times, find the
mean, variance, and standard deviation of the numbers on the balls.
Solution:
Let X = the number of each ball.
The probability distribution is
Number on ball X 1 2 3 4 5
Probability P(X) 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄
5 5 5 5 5

The mean is
µ = ∑[X•P(X)]
=1(1⁄5)+2(1⁄5)+3(1⁄5)+4(1⁄5)+5(1⁄5)
=0.20+0.40+0.60+0.80+1.00
=3
The variance is
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑥 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇 2
=[12(0.20)+22(0.20)+32(0.20)+42(0.20)+52(0.20)] - 32
= (0.20+0.80+1.80+3.20+5.00) - 9
=11 - 9
 =2
The standard deviation is

𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √2 = 1.41

Example 2: Five hundred raffle tickets are sold at ₱25 each for three prizes of ₱4,000,
₱2,500 and ₱1,000. After each prize drawing, the winner ticket is then returned to the
collection of tickets. What is the expected value if a person purchases four tickets?
136
Gain X ₱3,900 ₱2,400 ₱900 -₱100
Probability P(X) 4 4 4 496
500 500 500 500
Solution:
E(X)= ∑[X∙P(X)]
4 4 4 496
E(X)= (3,900)(500)+(2,400)(500)+(900)(500)+(-100)(500)

=31.20+19.20+7.20 - 99.2
=-₱41.60
Thus, the expected value is -₱41.60.
Example 3: A financial analyst suggest that his client select one of two types of
investments in which to invest ₱100,000. Investment A pays a return of 8% and has a
failure to pay rate of 5%. Investment B has a 6% return and a failure to pay rate of 3%.
Find the expected rate of return and decide which investment would be better. (When the
investment fails to pay, the investor loses all the investment.)
Solution:
The return on investment A is ₱100,000(8%) = ₱8,000. The expected return then is
E(X) = ₱8,000(0.95) - ₱100,000(.05) = 7,600 - 5,000 = ₱2,600
The return on investment B is ₱100,000(6%)= ₱6,000. The expected return then is
E(X) = ₱6,000(0.97) - ₱100,000(.03) = 5,820 - 3,000= ₱2,820
Thus, investment B would be a better investment since the expected return is higher
compared to investment A

5.8 Binomial Probability Distribution

 If the probability has only two outcomes or can be reduced to two outcomes (the
outcomes are considered as either success or failure these are called binomial experiment.
A binomial experiment is a probability experiment with the following requirements:
1. There must be a fix number of trials.
2. Each trial can have only two outcomes and are mutually exclusive outcomes.
3. The outcomes of each trial are independent.
4. The probability of each success is the same for each trial.

Binomial Formula: The probability of X success in a binomial experiment with n trials

and probability of success P is given by the formula
𝑛!
P(X) = (𝑛−𝑋)!𝑋! pXqn-X
(Formula 5-23)
where P(X)= Binomial probability distribution.
n = the number of trials

X = the number of observed successes

p = the probability of success on each tail
q = the probability of failure, found by 1 – p

Note that 0 ≤ X ≤ n and X = 0, 1, 2, 3, …, n

Example 1: In a survey, 25% of the people interviewed said they bought their Refrigerator
during the last six months. If eleven people are selected at random, find the probability that
exactly six these people bought their refrigerator during last six months.

Solution;
In this case, n = 11, X = 6, p = 25%, and q = 1- p = 1 – 0.25 = 0.75. Hence,
11!
P(6) = (11−6)!6!(0.25)6 (0.75)11−6 = 0.0268

The probability that exactly six of people bought a refrigerator during the last six months
is 0.0268.

Example 2: Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) found that 83% of Filipinos
think that having a college Education is important to succeed in life if a random sample of
seven Filipinos is selected, find these probabilities.
a. Exactly four people will agree with that statement
b. At most two people will agree with that statement
c. At least Five two people will agree with that statement.

Solution:
a. In this case, n = 7, X = 4, p = 83% = 0.83, and q = 0.17. Hence,
 7!
P(4) = (7−4)!4! (0.83)4 (0.17)7−4 = 0.0816

b. Recall that n = 7, p = 0.83, and q = 0.17. “At most two people” means 0, 1, or 2.
Hence, the solution i
71
P(0) = (7−0)!0! (0.83)0 (0.17)7−0 = 0.0000
7!
P(1) = (7−1)!1! (0.83)1 (0.17)7−1 = 0.0001
7!
P(2) = (7−2)!2! (0.83)2 (0.17)7−2 = 0.0020

P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 0.0000 + 0.0001 + 0.0020 = 0.0023

c. Note that n = 7, p = 0.83, and q = 0.17. To find the probability that at least five people
think that having a college education is important to succeed in life, it is necessary to
find the individual probabilities for 5, 6, 7 and then add them to get the probability.
7!
P(5) = (7−5)!5! (0.83)5 (0.17)7−5 = 0.2390
7!
P(6) = (7−6)!6! (0.83)6 (0.17)7−6 = 0.3890
71
P(7) = (7−7)!7! (0.83)7 (0.17)7−7 = 0.2713

Thus,
P(at least five people think that having a college education is important)
= P(5) + P(6) + P(7) = 0.2390 + 0.3890 + 0.2713 = 0.8993

5.9 Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution is another important probability distribution on a

discrete random variable that has a large number of applications. It is applied to experiment
with random and independent occurrences. The occurrences (successes) are random which
does not follow any pattern and it is unpredictable. Independence of occurrences
(successes) means that the event does not influence the successive occurrences or non-
occurrences of an event. The occurrences are always measured with respect to interval and
interval maybe in terms of time, a space or a volume. The actual number of occurrences
within an interval is random and independent. If the average number of occurrences for a
given interval is known, then by using the Poison Probability distribution, the probability
of a certain number of occurrences in an interval is represented by X. The Poisson
Probability distribution was named after the French Mathematician Samuel D. Poisson,
who describes it in 1837. The Poisson probability distributions can be described using
Formula 5-24.

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
P(X = x) = For x = 0, 1, 2, … (Formula 5-24)
𝑥!
where: 𝜇 = the mean number of occurrences in a particular interval of time (𝜇 = np).
e = is approximately 2.17828 (base on the Napierian logarithmic system).
X = the number of occurrence (success).
P(X) = the probability to be computed for a specified value of X.

Example: A vintage car breaks down an average for times per month. Using the Poisson
probability distribution formula, find the probability that during the next month this vintage
car will have (a) exactly three breakdowns, (b) at most two breakdowns, and (c) more than
one breakdown.

Solution:

Let 𝜇= the number of breakdowns per month.

X = the actual number of breakdowns observed during the next month for this vintage
car.

a. The probability that exactly three breakdowns observed during the next month is

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇 43 𝑒 −4 64(0.183156)
P(X = 3) = = = = 0.1954
𝑥! 3! 6

b. The probability that at most two breakdown will be observed during the next month is
given by the sum of the probabilities of zero, one and two breakdowns. Hence,

P(at most 2 breakdowns) = P(0 or 1 or 2 breakdowns)

= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
40 𝑒 −4 41 𝑒 −4 42 𝑒 −4
= + +
0! 1! 2!
1(0.0183156) 4(0.0183156) 16(0.0183156)
= + +
1 1 1

= 0.0183 + 0.0733 + 0.1465

= 0.2381
c. The probability that at least two breakdown will be observed during the next month is
given by P(X > 1) = P(X ≥ 2). We could try

P(𝑋 ≥ 2) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + …

= P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + …

There are infinite number of terms. A much better way is to use the fact that these
probabilities sum to 1. Consequently,

P(X = 2) = 1 – P(X < 2)

= 1 – P(X ≤ 1)
= 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]
 40 𝑒 −4 41 𝑒 −4
=1–[ + ]
0! 1!

= 1- [0.0183 + 0.0733]
= 1- 0.0916
= 0.9084