Stock name Intrinsic values Market Capital Stock PE View (based on intrinsic value and Market value)

NTPC Ltd 6,80,235 3,58,292 16 Udervalued

Urja Global 162 988 482 Udervalued
Torrent Power 99708 79237 35 Minutely undervalued
PTC India 9400 5345 11 Udervalued
SJVN -42905 47397 51 Unpredictable

Note: Debt is not considered in intrinsic while comparing with current market capital
Some figures are inflated due to sharp change in previous year data like fixed asset sell or negative growth rate
For calculation of cost of equity, EPS divided by share price concept has been applied. It is believed that risk fre
Source of data All data points have been collected from Screener and Moneycontrol for ratio analysis and DCF valuation.

Methodology From historical data, rate of change has been calculated for EBIT, Depreciation, per year tax average, average
Based on average obtained next five years EBIT and other forecasting has been done. In result Free Cash Fow h
For terminal value, EV/EBITDA exit multiple has been applied by getting average of top 5 companies in the ind
after deducting net debt from sum of discounted value of cash flow and terminal value, intrinsic value has bee
Average of some data point did not match the trend so manual adjustment has been done.
Change in working capital has been ignored for calculation of Free Cash flow because data could not be receiv
For calculating Cost of Capital, EPS/PE method has been applied which is supposed to include risk free return.
 Chart analysis
Range bound
No comment
Bullish last week
Bullish past 2 week
Bullish past 3 weeks

l or negative growth rate in EBIT over past 2 years

It is believed that risk free return has been included in share price.
and DCF valuation.

ar tax average, average of Capex per year.

n result Free Cash Fow has been summed and discounted based on Cost of Capital.
5 companies in the industry. Later EV at the end of 6th year has been discounted at the same discount rate.
e, intrinsic value has been derived.

data could not be received properly from screener.

nclude risk free return.
 Five year projection of NTPC company
Year EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT (7%) Tax %
2024 67,660.00 16,204 51456 7979
2025 72,720.28 17662 55058 8860
2026 78,163.95 19252 58912 9741
2027 84,020.46 20985 63036 10622
2028 90,321.59 22873 67448 11503

historical data
Capex Capex% EBIT EBIT%
2020 29628 31589
2021 21034 -34% 34044 7%
2022 22891 8% 40362 17%
2023 26145 13% 47596 16%
2024 32141 21% 51456 8%
average 26368 14% 12%
mpany Cost of capital
Capex (14%) Free cash flow Net Debt 187000 6.58%
26368 33,313 Equity 168000 6.25%
30059 33,801 187000 12.19%
34268 34,155 Assumptions
39065 34,333 Discount rate 12.2%
44534 34,284 EBIT growth rate 7%
Discounted Cash flow 121,687 Capex 14%
Total Discounted Value 851,137 Depreciation 11%
Intrinsic value 664,137

rical data
Depreciation Depr % Tax Interest
10356 8189
12450 18% 2694 9224
13788 10% 5047 9376
14792 7% 6796 11447
16204 9% 6809 12301
11%
 Terminal value calculation
Terminal value Exit multiple
Year EBITDA Exit multiple (EV/EBITDA) Company name EV/EBITDA
2028 90,321.59 14.356 Power Grid 10.21
Terminal value 1,296,657 Tata Power 12.2
Discounted TV 729,450 JSW energy 23.44
NHPC 15.93
J P Power 10
Average 14.356
 Five year projection of Urja Global company
Year EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT (Cr rs) Tax (Cr rs)
2024 3.03 0.48 2.55 1.89
2025 3.56 0.50 3.06 3.06
2026 4.20 0.53 3.67 3.67
2027 4.96 0.56 4.41 4.41
2028 5.87 0.58 5.29 5.29

historical data
Capex Capex% EBIT EBIT%
2020 1.7 1.14
2021 1.7 -3% 0.19 -179%
2022 0 -281% 0.5 97%
2023 0.7 187% 1.69 122%
2024 6.6 232% 2.55 41%
average 46% 20%
company Cost of capital
Capex (14%) Free cash flow (Cr Rs) Net Debt 3.03 10.00%
7 8 Equity 170 0.21%
10 10 WACC 173.03 0.33%
14 15
21 21 Assumptions
30 31 Discount rate 0.3%
Discounted Cash flow 84 EBIT growth rate 20%
Total Discounted Value 167 Capex 46%
Intrinsic value 164 Depreciation 5%

rical data
Depreciation Depr % Tax Interest
0.4 36% 0.8
0.35 -13% 20% 0.6
0.34 -3% 22% 0.7
0.50 39% 23% 1.0
0.48 -4% 28% 0.7
5% 26% 0.78
 Terminal value calculation
Terminal value Exit multiple
Year EBITDA Exit multiple (EV/EBITDA) Company name EV/EBITDA
2028 5.87 14.356 Power Grid 10.21
Terminal value 84 Tata Power 12.2
Discounted TV 83 JSW energy 23.44
NHPC 15.93
J P Power 10
Average 14.356
 Five year projection of Torrent Power company
Year EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT (Cr rs) Tax (Cr rs)
2024 5,974.00 1,378.00 4596.00 3594.07
2025 6,274.94 1397.02 4877.92 3814.54
2026 6,593.43 1416.29 5177.14 4048.52
2027 6,930.55 1435.84 5494.71 4296.86
2028 7,287.41 1455.65 5831.76 4560.44

historical data
Capex Capex% EBIT EBIT%
2020 1129.0 3596
2021 910.0 -22% 3477 -3%
2022 2483 100% 3615 4%
2023 3216.0 26% 4789 28%
2024 3544.0 10% 4596 -4%
average 45% 6%
orrent Power company Cost of capital
Capex (14%) Free cash flow (Cr Rs) Net Debt 9916 10.00%
3544 -1,164 Equity 12000 0.21%
5150 7,611 WACC 21916 3.65%
7484 10,029
10876 13,509 Assumptions
15805 18,532 Discount rate 3.7%
Discounted Cash flow 42,160 EBIT growth rate 6%
Total Discounted Value 129,602 Capex 45%
Intrinsic value 119,686 Depreciation 1%

historical data
Depreciation Depr % Tax Interest
1304 18% 955.0
1280 -2% 16% 776.0
1334 4% 19% 628.0
1281 -4% 29% 818.0
1378 7% 27% 943.0
1% 22% 824.00
 Terminal value calculation
Terminal value Exit multiple
Year EBITDA Exit multiple (EV/EBITDA) Company name
2028 7,287.41 14.356 Power Grid
Terminal value 104,618 Tata Power
Discounted TV 87,443 JSW energy
NHPC
J P Power
Average
Exit multiple
EV/EBITDA
10.21
12.2
23.44
15.93
10
14.356
 Five year projection of Torrent Power company
Year EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT (Cr rs) Tax (Cr rs) Capex (14%)
2024 2,400.00 557.00 1843.00 1459.66 5502
2025 2,389.02 608.79 1780.23 1409.94 8381
2026 2,384.99 665.40 1719.59 1361.92 12766
2027 2,388.29 727.26 1661.02 1315.53 19446
2028 2,399.33 794.89 1604.45 1270.72 29620
Discounted Cash flow
Total Discounted Value
Intrinsic value

historical data
Capex Capex% EBIT EBIT% Depreciation
2020 95.0 2112 384
2021 1145.0 249% 1867 -12% 393
2022 6132 168% 1794 -4% 404
2023 6877.0 11% 2273 24% 396
2024 5502.0 -22% 1843 -21% 557
average 52% -3%
 Cost of capital
Free cash flow (Cr Rs) Net Debt 9916 10.00% Terminal
-4,562 Equity 14000 0.21% Year
-7,402 WACC 23916 3.41% 2028
-11,743 Terminal value
-18,373 Assumptions Discounted TV
-28,492 Discount rate 3.4%
-62,123 EBIT growth rate -3%
-32,989 Capex 52%
-42,905 Depreciation 9%

Depr % Tax Interest

21% 344.0
2% 11% 42.0
3% 27% 226.0
-2% 22% 449.0
34% 23% 482.0
9% 21% 308.60
 Terminal value calculation
Terminal value Exit multiple
EBITDA Exit multiple (EV/EBITDA) Company name EV/EBITDA
2,399.33 14.356 Power Grid 10.21
34,445 Tata Power 12.2
29,135 JSW energy 23.44
NHPC 15.93
J P Power 10
Average 14.356
 Five year projection of Torrent Power company
Year EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT (Cr rs) Tax (Cr rs)
2024 1,170.00 100.00 1070.00 772.54
2025 1,007.03 80.00 927.03 669.32
2026 873.16 70.00 803.16 579.88
2027 785.85 90.00 695.85 502.40
2028 641.06 38.19 602.87 435.27

historical data
Capex Capex% EBIT EBIT%
2020 414.0 1826
2021 505.0 20% 1697 -7%
2022 46 -240% 1580 -7%
2023 168.0 130% 1111 -35%
2024 519.0 113% 1070 -4%
average 1% -13%
rent Power company Cost of capital
Capex (14%) Free cash flow (Cr Rs) Net Debt 2212 10.00%
519 -122 Equity 5396 0.21%
727 1,064 WACC 7608 2.25%
1017 1,311
1424 1,708 Assumptions
1994 2,200 Discount rate 2.2%
Discounted Cash flow 5,656 EBIT growth rate -13%
Total Discounted Value 13,892 Capex 40%
Intrinsic value 11,680 Depreciation -58%

historical data
Depreciation Depr % Tax Interest
100 31% 1159.0
100 0% 33% 926.0
101 1% 26% 757.0
10 -231% 25% 472.0
10 0% 24% 431.0
-58% 28% 749.00
 Terminal value calculation
Terminal value Exit multiple
Year EBITDA Exit multiple (EV/EBITDA) Company name
2028 641.06 14.356 Power Grid
Terminal value 9,203 Tata Power
Discounted TV 8,236 JSW energy
NHPC
J P Power
Average
Exit multiple
EV/EBITDA
10.21
12.2
23.44
15.93
10
14.356
 Yearly stock return Covariance of stoc
SJVN Urja Global PTC Ind NTPC
18.9% 121.7% 53.7% 10.7% AAA
15.3% 33.0% 0.6% 25.3% BBB
65.3% -47.1% 40.1% 46.8% CCC
60.1% 64.1% 33.7% 40.0% DDD

Risk free rate 8%

sharpe ratio #DIV/0! higher is better
Stocks
AAA
BBB
CCC
DDD

Portfolio return
portfolio variance
portfolio sd
sharpe ratio
When solver applied for minimize po
 Covariance of stock return
AAA BBB CCC DDD
0.07 -0.11 0.02 0.04
-0.11 0.50 0.04 -0.09
0.02 0.04 0.05 0.00
0.04 -0.09 -0.004 0.03

Average Return weights

39.89% 0%
42.93% 0%
32.00% 0%
30.73% 0%
0%
Monthly
0.00%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00%
#DIV/0!
olver applied for minimize portfolio risk