Instructor: Tamer Elsayed

Sec 13.1-13.5

[Many slides were created by Dan Klein and Pieter Abbeel at UC Berkeley (ai.berkeley.edu)]
 We’re done with
 Part I: Search
 Part II: Logical Agents

 Part III: Probabilistic Reasoning

 Diagnosis
 Speech recognition
 Tracking objects
 … lots more!

2
 Probability
 Random Variables
 Joint and Marginal Distributions
 Conditional Distribution
 Product Rule, Chain Rule, Bayes’ Rule
 Inference
 Independence

 You’ll need all this stuff A LOT for the next

few weeks, so make sure you go over it now!

3
 A ghost is in the grid somewhere
 Sensor readings tell how close a
square is to the ghost
 On the ghost: red
 1 or 2 away: orange
 3 or 4 away: yellow
 5+ away: green

 Sensors are noisy, but we know P(Color | Distance)

P(red | 3) P(orange | 3) P(yellow | 3) P(green | 3)
0.05 0.15 0.5 0.3

4
5
 General situation:
 Observed variables (evidence): Agent knows certain things
about the state of the world (e.g., sensor readings or
symptoms).
 Unobserved variables: Agent needs to reason about other
aspects (e.g. where an object is or what disease is present).
 Model: Agent knows something about how the known
variables relate to the unknown variables.

 Probabilistic reasoning gives us a framework for

managing our beliefs and knowledge.

6
 A random variable is some aspect of the world about
which we (may) have uncertainty.
 R = Is it raining?
 T = Is it hot or cold?
 D = How long will it take to drive to work?
 L = Where is the ghost?

 We denote random variables with capital letters.

 Like variables in a CSP, random variables have domains

 R in {true, false} (often write as {+r, -r})
 T in {hot, cold}
 D in [0, )
 L in possible locations, maybe {(0,0), (0,1), …}

7
 Associate a probability with each value.

Temperature Weather

W P
T P
sun 0.6
hot 0.5
rain 0.1
cold 0.5
fog 0.3
meteor 0.0

8
 Random variables have distributions Shorthand notation:

T P W P
hot 0.5 sun 0.6
cold 0.5 rain 0.1
fog 0.3
meteor 0.0
OK if all domain entries are unique
 A distribution is a TABLE of probabilities of values

 A probability (lower case value) is a single number

 Must have: and

9
 A joint distribution over a set of random variables:
specifies a real number for each assignment (or outcome):

T W P

 Must obey: hot sun 0.4

hot rain 0.1
cold sun 0.2
cold rain 0.3

 Size of distribution if n variables with domain sizes d?

 For all but the smallest distributions, impractical to write out!
10
 A probabilistic model is a joint distribution over a set of random variables
Distribution over T,W
T W P
hot sun 0.4
hot rain 0.1
cold sun 0.2
cold rain 0.3

 Probabilistic models:
 (Random) variables with domains
 Assignments are called outcomes
 Joint distributions: say whether assignments (outcomes) are likely
 Normalized: sum to 1.0
 Ideally: only certain variables directly interact
11
 An event is a set E of outcomes

 From a joint distribution, we can calculate the

probability of any event T W P
 Probability that it’s hot AND sunny? hot sun 0.4
hot rain 0.1
 Probability that it’s hot?
cold sun 0.2
 Probability that it’s hot OR sunny? cold rain 0.3

 Typically, the events we care about are partial

assignments, like P(T=hot)
12
 P(+x, +y) ?

X Y P
+x +y 0.2
 P(+x) ?
+x -y 0.3
-x +y 0.4
-x -y 0.1
 P(-y OR +x) ?

13
 Marginal distributions are sub-tables which eliminate variables.
 Marginalization (summing out): Combine collapsed rows by adding.

T P
hot 0.5
T W P
cold 0.5
hot sun 0.4
hot rain 0.1
cold sun 0.2 W P
cold rain 0.3 sun 0.6
rain 0.4

14
 X P
+x
X Y P
-x
+x +y 0.2
+x -y 0.3
-x +y 0.4 Y P
-x -y 0.1 +y
-y

15
 A simple relation between joint and conditional probabilities, taken as the
definition of a conditional probability:
P(a,b) Conditional probability
of A given B is how
many times A occurred
together with B divided
by how many times B
occurred, i.e. only the
P(a) P(b) A's "within" B's

T W P
hot sun 0.4
hot rain 0.1
cold sun 0.2
cold rain 0.3
16
  P(+x | +y) ?

X Y P
+x +y 0.2
 P(-x | +y) ?
+x -y 0.3
-x +y 0.4
-x -y 0.1

 P(-y | +x) ?

17
 Conditional distributions are probability distributions over some variables
given fixed values of others.
Conditional Distributions
Joint Distribution

W P
T W P sun 0.8
hot sun 0.4 rain 0.2
hot rain 0.1
cold sun 0.2
cold rain 0.3 W P
sun 0.4
rain 0.6

18
 T W P
hot sun 0.4 W P
hot rain 0.1 sun 0.4
cold sun 0.2 rain 0.6
cold rain 0.3

19
 SELECT the joint NORMALIZE the
probabilities selection
T W P
matching the (make it sum to one)
hot sun 0.4 evidence W P
T W P
hot rain 0.1 sun 0.4
cold sun 0.2
cold sun 0.2 rain 0.6
cold rain 0.3
cold rain 0.3

20
 SELECT the joint NORMALIZE the
probabilities selection
T W P
matching the (make it sum to one)
hot sun 0.4 evidence W P
T W P
hot rain 0.1 sun 0.4
cold sun 0.2
cold sun 0.2 rain 0.6
cold rain 0.3
cold rain 0.3

 Why does this work? Sum of selection is P(evidence)! (P(T=c), here)

21
 P(X | Y=-y) ?

SELECT the joint NORMALIZE the

probabilities selection
X Y P matching the (make it sum to one)
+x +y 0.2 evidence
+x -y 0.3
-x +y 0.4
-x -y 0.1

22
 (Dictionary) To bring or restore to a normal condition

All entries sum to ONE

 Procedure:
 Step 1: Compute Z = sum over all entries
 Step 2: Divide every entry by Z

 Example 1  Example 2
T W P T W P
W P Normalize W P
hot sun 20 Normalize hot sun 0.4
sun 0.2 sun 0.4
hot rain 5 hot rain 0.1
rain 0.3 Z = 0.5 rain 0.6 Z = 50
cold sun 10 cold sun 0.2
cold rain 15 cold rain 0.3
23