Fertility: Concept,

Measurements and Trends

Dr. Rambooshan Tiwari

Assistant Professor
Department of Geography
Indira Gandhi National Tribal University Amarkantak
Email: [email protected]
Contact: 9424322063
• Introduction

• Fertility is, with mortality, one of the two big, overarching topics in demography. On a
global scale population size and structure is entirely dependent on these two processes –
fertility bringing people into the population and mortality taking them out.

• At a sub-global level migration becomes an important third process which grows in

importance as one considers smaller and smaller geographies.

• So understanding fertility and the accurate estimation of it is extremely important and

because of this it is approached in a variety of different ways, each with advantages and
disadvantages for estimation procedures.

• It is also an area where sociological explanations flood into the more precise measures that
demography offers. There is a huge literature on reasons why women and couples decide to
have more or less children and how governments have sometimes attempted to influence
those decisions.

• This is a fascinating area of demography but this session is concerned with the measurement
of fertility rather than sociological theory.
 Concept of Fertility
• The term fertility denotes the actual reproductive performance of a
women.
• Or the number of children a women has
• Or the average number of children for a group of women.
• Sometimes the term Natality is used to refer to the more general analysis
of childbearing through this usage is becoming less common and the term
fertility is commonly used to cover all aspects of reproduction.
• The term Fecundity is used to cannot the physiological capacity to bear
children and the opposite of the term sterility.
• No direct measurement of fecundity is possible whereas fertility can be
studied from the statics of birth.
1. Fertility = Production of a live birth (Natality) Š

2. Infertility = Inability to produce a live birth Š

3. Parity = Number of children born alive to a woman Š

4. Gravidity = Number of pregnancies a woman has had whether or not they

produce a live birth Š

5. Fecundity = Physiological capacity to conceive (reproductive potential)

6. Fecundability = The frequently used concept for the statistical estimation of

fertility within a menstrual cycle is ‘Fecundability’. It is denote the probability
of women conceiving within a menstrual cycle. The term was first introduced
by an Italian statistician Corrado Gini in1924.

7. Reproductive Span of Women: 15-45 which is extended till age of 49.

8. Age in completed Year

9. Exact Age
 Measures of Fertility
• There are broadly two way of approaching the study of fertility, period
and cohort.
• The essential quality of period fertility analysis is that it looks at
birth occurring during a specific period of time normally one year.
• Cohort analysis on the other hand looks at fertility longitudinally that
is at all birth occurring to a specific group of women normally all
those born or married during a particular year. One is looking over time
at their reproductive history.
• The essential feature of cohort analysis is that it considers that
experience of one group of people over time usually all those born or
marrying during particular interval.
 Period fertility Cohort fertility
Relates to short intervals of time Relates to lifetime experience
Follows real women over their reproductive life-
Looks at births to women in all age groups
times
Can produce very current estimates Estimates typically relate to an earlier period
Requires either longitudinal data or retrospective
Data can be collected in a single time period
questioning by means of a birth history from
or in a cross-sectional survey. For recent
women aged 50+. In populations not conversant
childbearing (last 10 years) recall of dates of
with recording of dates the latter may suffer from
birth is usually quite good
inaccuracies of age/date recall for distant births
Summary measure is Total Fertility Rate Summary measure is Completed Family Size
(TFR) (CFS)
Refers to an artificial construct called a Reflects the lifetime behavior and intentions of
synthetic cohort cohorts of real women
Smooths out temporal variations in fertility, since
Hhighlights the yearly variations in fertility
real women may live through periods of high and
due to transient influences
low fertility
Easy to describe family formation in terms of
Parity progression analysis complicated
parity progression*
Best way to study impact of crises and short Best way to study childhood influences on
term interventions childbearing outcomes
 Period Measures of Fertility
1. Child/Woman Ratio
Child Women Ratio = children aged 0-4 (under age 5) X1000
women aged under 15-49

➢ This simple measure is not an accurate measure of fertility, it is more a measure of

population structure.
➢ But it has its uses, one being that it is very easy to calculate in simple small area surveys. It
is constructed for a stated period or from a cross-sectional survey:
➢ Its problem as a true measure of fertility is with the numerator – it misses children who have
died. In a high mortality situation numbers of these could be substantial and fertility will
therefore be underestimated.
➢ So as a fertility measure it is rather rough-and-ready but it can still tell you about the burden
of children in a community.
➢ It is also used demographically as a measure of "youngness" in a population and is useful
for that purpose.
➢ Another advantage of its simplicity is that it can be constructed from census data alone; it
does not require information about births – but that means that it is not a true fertility
measure.
➢ It is normally a figure below one – considerably below one for low fertility countries, just
under one for high fertility countries. This may seem a low figure for high fertility countries
but even in these countries more than two children below 5 at any one time is relatively
uncommon and this will be offset by numbers of very young women with no children and a
considerable number of older women with no children under age 5. High fertility countries
are also likely to have higher rates of child mortality, which would further reduce the ratio.
2. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

Crude Birth Rate = Number of Live Births in a stated period (Year) x 1000
Mid Year Population over that period (Year)

➢ This measure is a simple ratio of the number of births in a particular

period (usually a year) divided by the total population size.

➢ The denominator is technically the person-years lived in the year, but

this is usually estimated as the mid-year population, which is itself

estimated as the mean of the population at start and end of the period.

➢ It is a crude measure because in denominator all population in used.

3. General Fertility Rate
General Fertility Rate = No. of births in a Year x 1000
Population of women aged 15 – 49 in a same year

➢ This measure addresses the crude nature of the CBR by focusing on that section of the
population at risk of having births – women aged 15-49.
➢ It can easily be constructed from vital registration, census or survey data and does not rely
on exact ages (except at beginning and end of age range).
➢ This measure is a step above the previous two measures and a potentially useful and
reasonably accurate measure of fertility because the numerator and denominator are
focused and well specified and the denominator is truly those at risk of producing the
numerator.
➢ The General Fertility Rate (GFR) has specific uses in certain circumstances when one
wants to know a total number of births for all women in the fertile ages. But in general it
is not widely used because it still suffers a disadvantage concerning the structure of the
population – similar to the problem with the CBR although on a smaller scale.
4. Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
AFSR (at age X)= Birth to women aged X in a year x 1000
Mid-year female population aged X

AFSR(at age X to X+n)= Birth to women aged X to X+n in a year x 1000

Mid year female population aged X to X+n

births to women aged 15 - 19 in a stated period x 1000

Age - specific fertility rate
15 - 19 =
number of women aged 15 - 19 in the same period
➢ To examine fertility in detail it is necessary to construct age-specific fertility

rates (ASFRs).

➢ These are simply fertility rates limited to certain age-groups of women.

➢ The groups could be of any width, or single years of age, but the convention is to

form seven 5-year age groups, which cover the range 15-49 years.

➢ One can add an eighth group of 10-14 year old women but usually there are very

few births in this range and it adds little advantage – but be aware that it can be

done.

➢ Quite often they are expressed per thousand women i.e. multiplied by 1,000 but

this is not essential.

 Age-specific fertility rates (births per thousand women)
Country 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Brazil 75.6 111.9 92.8 56.8 30.5 10.4 2.0
China 8.4 142.5 120.3 41.8 10.6 3.4 0.9
India 86.3 215.3 142.4 65.5 26.4 7.5 1.7
Indonesia 45.1 114.1 115.8 90.2 51.9 16.2 4.7
Japan 5.0 36.1 85.5 90.2 40.9 6.2 0.2
Morocco 15.1 83.1 122.9 131.1 84.8 30.2 8.0
Netherlands 5.1 38.1 107.0 131.7 58.2 8.6 0.3
Niger 207.1 304.2 304.2 269.5 202.9 105.4 45.6
Republic of
2.3 19.2 102.8 102.5 27.5 3.0 0.2
Korea
Russian
30.0 90.5 86.7 54.2 22.4 3.8 0.2
Federation
Rwanda 38.7 209.7 275.4 243.0 200.7 99.7 18.8
Saudi
11.6 70.9 217.5 122.4 106.0 53.0 23.7
Arabia
5. Total Fertility Rate
• The sum of the ASFR over different ages 15 to 49 is known as TFR thus

TFR = sum of ASFR or ∑ ASFR

• If the rate refers to intervals greater than one than the ASFR represent only the average for

the interval to multiply them by the width of the interval which is generally 5 so

• TFR = ∑ ASFR*5 OR ∑ ASFR x 5

Normally ASFR calculated for 1000 women so to calculate TFR should be divided by 1000
TFR = ∑ASFR *
1000
• Note- TFR is actually an ASFR for the age group 15-49

• It is the most widely used measure of fertility by demographer ,

• The importance of TFR is that it is single figure and it is independent of age structure .
• Nowadays the TFR is conventionally expressed as a figure relating to a single
woman. For nations it mostly ranges between about 1.5 to 6. Historically it could
range up to about 8 but that is unusual today. However for selected communities it
is quite possible to have TFRs both higher and lower than the normal range.

• The highest recorded and verified TFR is that of the North American Hutterite
religious community during the 1920s. This was 9.2 for all women and 12.4 if only
married women were used for the denominator. The latter figure is an example of
a Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and has been used as a standard for very
high (but verified) fertility. Marital (including cohabiting) fertility is naturally a
considerably higher figure than the general TFR because it utilises only women
who are in family-forming partnerships. The measure has its uses but it is not so
common a figure as the general TFR.
6. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
➢ GRR is another summary measure of period fertility rate.

➢ This rate is essentially a TFR with the modification that it is computed only for female birth.

➢ GRR is the average number of the daughter that would be born to a women during her
lifetime, if she passed through the childbearing age experiencing the average age specific
fertility pattern of given period .

➢ If the data are available it is calculated same as TFR but only female birth are taken,
if data on sex structure are not available than S is assumed as 1.05 (105 men per 100
women)

• GRR= TFR *(1/1+5)

• A measure which uses both the age specific schedule of fertility and mortality is called net
reproduction rate ,in general NRR measure the extent to which a cohort of newly born girls
will replace their mother under predetermined schedule of fertility and mortality.
 Cohort Measures of Fertility
• A change in timing of birth is known as Tempo change. it has an important
effect on period fertility rates but less effect on cohort fertility rates.
• The cohort fertility rates are affected by Quantum effects (not by tempo
effects )The quantum is usually the completed fertility of a cohort average
birth per women.
• The hypothetical group who are support to do so is called a synthetic
cohort
• A commonly calculated measure of cohort fertility is cumulative fertility
which is the summation of the cohorts childbearing experience from the
beginning of exposure to risk until same later date .
• The terms completed fertility or lifetime fertility refers to cumulative
fertility at the end of the reproductive span.
1. Parity Progression Ratio
• The most widely used measures of fertility are period measures - age-specific fertility rates
and the total fertility rate (TFR). These are very useful measures but they do suffer from one
failing - they are not very good at detecting real changes in fertility in the short term. That is
because they are affected by the timing of births (tempo effects).

• In developed countries one cannot be completely sure, for several years, that an apparent
decline in fertility is not at least partially due to delaying of births until older ages, to fit in
with careers and a fashion for establishing households and financial security before
childbearing.

• Of course there is often a concurrent real fertility decline as well, not least because delaying
childbearing until later ages reduces the time in which to conceive and bear many children.
But even if women end up having the same number of children as women of an earlier
cohort (i.e fertility remains constant), delaying having those births will produce
an apparent drop in fertility as measured by period rates, at least for a while.
• In developing countries too a phenomenon known as the Potter effect can suggest
fertility declines that are in fact unreliable. In cultures where dates of birth are not
considered important - and therefore children’s ages are not accurately known -
women asked in surveys to report dates of birth of recent borne children frequently
push the date of birth back in time; that is, they report children as older than they
really are.

• Researchers calculating period fertility rates from these reports invariably see a
declining trend in period fertility in the years leading up to the survey. This decline
is of course false, only occurring because of misreporting of dates, and raises false
hopes of a real decline in fertility.

• Period fertility is therefore affected by two different components of fertility -

the timing of births, which demographers call tempo effects, and the real level
of (cohort) fertility, as measured by how many births a woman eventually
produces, which demographers call the quantum of fertility.
• It would therefore be useful to have measures of fertility that are largely insensitive
to tempo effects. Parity progression ratios go a long way to meeting this need,
and are also robust to misreported dates of birth. They can be very useful when
trying to establish evidence for real fertility decline as distinct from apparent
fertility decline produced by tempo effects on period measures.

• Parity progression ratios (PPRs) are a rather different way of measuring fertility.
They are not well appreciated outside of demography and so you will not see them
frequently quoted in reports for general consumption. Their advantage is that they
are free of tempo effects. However they also have disadvantages – the commonest
being that in their simple form PPRs are cohort measures and therefore require
data from women who have completed (or nearly completed) their fertility - thus
they do not represent fertility of younger women. There are ways of getting around
this limitation but the methodology gets very complicated and is beyond the scope
of this session.
• Therefore only simple cohort PPRs are considered here.

• Parity progression ratios (PPRs) measure the proportion of women with n children
who go on to have n+1 children. So PPRs are order-specific and come in sets, rather
than being single summary measures such as the TFR.

• The conventional symbol for a PPR of a certain birth order is an so a set of PPRs
would be:

• CFR or PPR = a0+a0a1+a0a1a2 +…

• a0 = proportion of women with 0 children who go on to have 1 child (i.e. become

mothers)

• a1 = proportion of women with 1 child who go on to have 2 children

• a2 = proportion of women with 2 children who go on to have 3 children

• a3 = etc.

• up to a suitable birth order, depending on the level of fertility.

• (Visit http://papp.iussp.org/sessions/papp101_s04/PAPP101_s04_090_040.html )
Global Fertility Trends
TFR in India (1950-2020)
• Summary
• Fertility is one of the big overarching topics of demography and it deserves
serious study. Fertility is number of live births, not the medical concept of
potential to conceive – that is fecundity.
• We started this module with some simple measures of fertility. They all
have their uses. The Crude Birth Rate is important because of its place in
the demographic balancing equation, from which population growth can
be calculated.
• Age-specific fertility rates are important because they allow us to
see patterns of fertility, which give us a good idea of both traditional and
modern/early and late patterns of fertility. Patterns are important in
demography!
• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is very important because it is so widely used and quoted. It
is derived directly from ASFRs and is a standardised measure which allows international
comparisons. It is, by default, a period measure, although cohort TFRs are possible.

• But the period TFR has tempo problems which non-demographers often do not appreciate
and a further understanding of cohort fertility is also important. This itself has limitations
but is a different way of viewing fertility and is important for that reason. Lexis diagrams
help with visualising cohort fertility.

• Parity progression ratios, in their simple form, are cohort measures and also provide a
different appreciation of fertility – without tempo effects. They are particularly sensitive at
identifying choice in childbearing.

• Fertility is an area of demography where many theories exist to explain fertility change,
especially focusing on how and why fertility decline commences. This is an interesting area
but this module focuses on the technical assessment of fertility and the key measures that
demographers must understand and know how to calculate and interpret.