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Hany Shehata
Braja Das
A. P. S. Selvadurai
Ayman Fayed Editors
Advanced Numerical
Methods in Foundation
Engineering
Proceedings of the 3rd GeoMEast International
Congress and Exhibition, Egypt 2019 on
Sustainable Civil Infrastructures – The Official
International Congress of the Soil-Structure
Interaction Group in Egypt (SSIGE)
Sustainable Civil Infrastructures
Editor-in-Chief
Hany Farouk Shehata, SSIGE, Soil-Interaction Group in Egypt SSIGE, Cairo,
Egypt
Advisory Editors
Khalid M. ElZahaby, Housing and Building National Research Center, Giza, Egypt
Dar Hao Chen, Austin, TX, USA
Sustainable Infrastructure impacts our well-being and day-to-day lives. The
infrastructures we are building today will shape our lives tomorrow. The complex
and diverse nature of the impacts due to weather extremes on transportation and
civil infrastructures can be seen in our roadways, bridges, and buildings. Extreme
summer temperatures, droughts, flash floods, and rising numbers of freeze-thaw
cycles pose challenges for civil infrastructure and can endanger public safety. We
constantly hear how civil infrastructures need constant attention, preservation, and
upgrading. Such improvements and developments would obviously benefit from
our desired book series that provide sustainable engineering materials and designs.
The economic impact is huge and much research has been conducted worldwide.
The future holds many opportunities, not only for researchers in a given country,
but also for the worldwide field engineers who apply and implement these
technologies. We believe that no approach can succeed if it does not unite the
efforts of various engineering disciplines from all over the world under one
umbrella to offer a beacon of modern solutions to the global infrastructure. Experts
from the various engineering disciplines around the globe will participate in this
series, including: Geotechnical, Geological, Geoscience, Petroleum, Structural,
Transportation, Bridge, Infrastructure, Energy, Architectural, Chemical and
Materials, and other related Engineering disciplines.
Editors
Advanced Numerical
Methods in Foundation
Engineering
Proceedings of the 3rd GeoMEast
International Congress and Exhibition, Egypt
2019 on Sustainable Civil Infrastructures –
The Official International Congress
of the Soil-Structure Interaction Group
in Egypt (SSIGE)
123
Editors
Hany Shehata Braja Das
Soil-Structure Interaction California State University
Group in Egypt (SSIGE) California, CA, USA
Cairo, Egypt
Ayman Fayed
A. P. S. Selvadurai Ain Shams University
McGill University Cairo, Egypt
Montreal, QC, Canada
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
v
vi Contents
vii
viii About the Editors
Education:
1 Introduction
Jordan is an arid country with very limited water resources. Groundwater contributes a
significant portion of the water supply in Jordan. Increased dependence on groundwater
needs improved aquifer management with respect to understanding recharge and dis-
charge issues (Tompson et al. 1999). Amman-Zarqa aquifer is located in the northern
part of Jordan and is a major source of drinking water for Amman, Zarqa and Jerash
cities. Furthermore, due to the increasing demand, the withdrawal from most of the
Jordan’s aquifers is almost double that of the safe yield. This will eventually lead to the
depletion of water resources and deterioration in the water quality according to the
National Water Master Plan of Jordan (NWMP 2001). Groundwater modeling is an
effective tool to understand the nature of groundwater flow and for aquifer manage-
ment. Groundwater modeling begins with the development of conceptual model after
enough knowledge of the hydrogeology of the system, followed by the mathematical
model, which consists of differential equations for hydraulic head with specification of
system geometry, and boundary conditions. Many numerical methods are used to solve
these differential equations; however the most common methods are finite difference
and finite element method.
The present study is oriented toward finding simple methodology tool for pre-
dicting, with reasonable accuracy, the hydrological behaviour of Amman-Zarqa Basin
(AZB) using appropriate and adjusted models such as MODFLOW. The study may, in
future, help decision makers and planners in selecting optimum groundwater man-
agement scenarios suitable for arid and semiarid regions. This report presents the
results of the groundwater modelling for AZB-Jordan the numerical groundwater
modelling of the AZB aims at
1. Simulating the hydrological behaviour of AZB using the MODFLOW
2. Carrying out different management scenarios for AZB (local climate effects such as
successive droughts hydrological years, groundwater pumping…)
Dry layer
Upper aquifer
(Studied layer)
B3 Impervious layer
(no leakage)
Baslat and B2/A7 Aquifer
Lower aquifer (not
A1/6 Aquitard included in study)
Kurnub Aquifer
Groundwater resources in most of these areas are highly developed and over exploited.
Groundwater potential in the basin is mostly utilized for irrigation in the areas of upper
Zarqa, Baqa’a, Dhuleil and Jerash.
4 F. Abdulla et al.
Average annual surface runoff in the Zarqa River as measured at New Jarash Bridge
is around 68 MCM (43 and 25 MCM for base flow and flood flow respectively) for the
period (1969–1999) records. In addition to the natural flows, the total flow of the Zarqa
River into the KTR includes large volume of wastewater effluent from As-Samra
treatment plant as well as some flows from Jerash, Abu Nseir and Baqa’a treatment
plants.
Groundwater flows from the north from Arab Mountain to the northwest towards
the Yarmouk basin, to the southwest towards Zarqa River, and to the East towards the
Azraq aquifer. Recharge occurs directly (rainfall) and indirectly (lateral flow).
Groundwater flows from the north at Jabal-el Arab area in Syria towards Yarmouk
basin on the northwest, to Zarqa River basin on the southwest and to Azraq basin on
the east. Total estimated annual groundwater recharge is about 70 MCM/y (direct from
rainfall is about 32 MCM and about 38 MCM as subsurface flow from the north across
the Syrian borders.
is up to 10:1 which may be used without introducing significant error (Spitz and
Moreno, 1996). Also a gradual variation in cell sizes between adjacent cells was taken
into consideration to be not greater than a factor of 1.5, which will facilitate model
convergence, increase stability, and reduce inaccuracy (Spitz and Moreno, 1996).
Fig. 3. Amman Zarqa Basin model boundary showing the active vs. inactive cell
Fig. 4. Flow model boundaries and grid for Amman Zarqa Basin (B2/A7 and Basalt Aquifer)
1. The western side is defined as a specified head boundary where groundwater flows
out to Zarqa River.
2. Another discharge side from the Amman Zarqa Basin is in the northern side, where
groundwater feeding Yarmouk Basin, it is also defined as a specified head
boundary.
Groundwater Numerical Modelling of Amman-Zarqa Basin-Jordan 7
3. The Arab Mountain in the east north is an important recharge source for Amman
Zarqa Basin, it is considered as a specified head boundary.
4. Southern side of the Amman Zarqa Basin is also major outflow boundaries toward
Azraq basin, where they are defined as a specified head boundary.
Fig. 5. Ground water flow pattern and water level map for Amman Zarqa Basin used as initial
condition in the model application.
8 F. Abdulla et al.
Model calibration and validation are necessary and critical steps in any model appli-
cation. For most groundwater models, calibration is an iterative procedure of parameter
evaluation and refinement, as a result of comparing simulated and observed values of
interest. Model validation is in reality an extension of the calibration process. Its
purpose is to assure that the calibrated model properly assesses all the variables and
conditions which can affect model results, and demonstrate the ability to predict field
observations for periods separate from the calibration effort (Donigian 2003). The
calibration and validation phases are especially critical since the outcome establishes
how well the model represents the basin.
Fig. 6. Map of the measured and simulated water levels for the B2/A7-Basalt aquifer (Steady
state calibration)
Recharge = 32.5
Fig. 7. Water Balance of the model domain at the steady state conditions (units in MCM/year)
Figure 7 shows the water balance for the Basalt-B2/A7 aquifer system in AZB at
steady state condition where the calibrated outflow is exceeded the inflow by 32.5
MCM. The inflow comes from Arab Mountain in the east north of AZB which indi-
cated by number (3) in Fig. 7 with about 43.9 MCM. The major outflows from the
B2/A7 aquifer system are toward Azraq Basin (indicated by number 4) with about 37.2
MCM, and toward Zarqa River (indicated by number 1) with about 29.9 MCM, in
addition to 9.3 MCM discharge toward Yarmouk Basin (indicated by number 2).
10 F. Abdulla et al.
Accordingly, the water balance for steady state condition of B2/A7 aquifer in the AZB
can be summarized as follows: the total annual direct recharge is 32.5 MCM, the total
annual inflow (from Arab Mountain in the east north of AZB) is 43.9 MCM, and total
annual outflow is 76.4 MCM. Major outflows from the B2/A7 aquifer system are
toward Azraq Basin (37.2 MCM), and toward Zarqa River (29.9 MCM), in addition to
(9.3 MCM) discharge toward Yarmouk Basin.
2428
2063
1081
584
496
405
301 276
197 203 170
80 111 87 62
2 5 10 1
As shown graphically, the calibrated heads of steady state prove good fit with the
observed heads, in addition Table 1 summarized some measures of the goodness of fit
between observed and predicted heads and compared model values with the ideal ones.
These also provide quantitative measures of the calibrated heads in addition to the
visual and qualitative measures that are presented previously.
Groundwater Numerical Modelling of Amman-Zarqa Basin-Jordan 11
Table 1. Measures of fit between observed and predicted heads for steady state calibration
Measure/item Max. residual Min. residual Mean error Mean absolute error R2
Model value 19.18 −16.31 0.56 3.30 0.994
Ideal value 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
3.3 Abstraction
Annual abstraction for the Amman Zarqa Basin was obtained from the Water Authority
of Jordan (WAJ). These data represent the abstraction records for AZB wells for the
time period that extends from 1989 to 2004 for all the basin aquifers. Abstraction data
provide by WAJ for the period before 1989 is not complete. Accordingly, the total well
abstractions for the years 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 were obtained
from a study conducted by MWI (2001) on AZB entitled of “hydrological impacts of
over-pumping and assessment of groundwater management options in the Amman
Zarqa highlands”. Then, linear interpolation using these data was used to find the
abstraction records for the missing years of abstractions. Figure 9 shows the modified
abstraction data.
140
120
Abstraction (MCM)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Fig. 9. Modified abstraction data for Amman Zarqa basin for the years from 1989 to 2004.
3.4 Recharge
Estimation of the natural recharge is probably the most difficult parameter to estimate
due to the many factors that affect on this process. Although there are many methods to
estimate the recharge quantity but most of them required detailed and accurate data to
get an acceptable estimation. Different methods to predict the recharge quantities were
used. The method that gave a recharge values close to the surface water model and the
previous studies for AZB was the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method.
12 F. Abdulla et al.
The evaporation through the rainfall storm assumed equal to zero. Amman Zarqa
basin was divided into zones according to the Thiessen polygon method. Rainfall
gauging stations that have a good time series records where chosen. Also, the basin
coverage was taken into consideration in choosing the useful rainfall stations. The
curve number values were taken for each sub-catchment according to the soil type, land
use and many other factors. By application of the SCS method and rainfall data, a
monthly recharge was calculated and used as input to the model.
520
Actual
Simulated
515
510
Water Level, m
505
500
495
490
485
CALIBRATION VALIDATION
480
Jan-79 Sep-81 Jun-84 Mar-87 Dec-89 Sep-92 Jun-95 Mar-98 Nov-00
Date
Fig. 10a. Comparison between observed and simulated hydraulic head (AL1040)
520
Actual
Simulated
515
510
Water Level, m
505
500
495
490
485
CALIBRATION VALIDATION
480
Jan-70 Jun-75 Dec-80 Jun-86 Nov-91 May-97 Nov-02
Date
Fig. 10b. Comparison between observed and simulated hydraulic head (AL1043)
525
Actual
Simulated
520
515
Water Level, m
510
505
500
CALIBRATION VALIDATION
495
Jan-88 Sep-90 Jun-93 Mar-96 Dec-98 Sep-01
Date
Fig. 10c. Comparison between observed and simulated hydraulic head (AL2698)
14 F. Abdulla et al.
506
Actual
Simulated
504
502
Water Level, m
500
498
496
494
492
CALIBRATION VALIDATION
490
Jan-88 Sep-90 Jun-93 Mar-96 Dec-98 Sep-01
Date
Fig. 10d. Comparison between observed and simulated hydraulic head (AL2699)
Table 2. Measures of fit between observed and predicted heads for transient state (Calibration
stage)
ID Residual Max. Residual Min. ME MAE R2
AL1040 3.05 −0.94 0.76 1.28 0.98
AL1043 2.29 −2.36 0.33 1.06 0.92
AL2698 3.71 0.47 1.97 1.97 0.94
AL2699 1.90 −3.79 −0.05 1.02 0.57
Ideal value 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Table 3. Measures of fit between observed and predicted heads for transient state (Validation
stage)
ID Residual Max. Residual Min. ME MAE R2
AL1040 2.44 −1.13 0.99 1.48 0.47
AL1043 1.00 −4.64 −1.98 2.26 0.29
AL2698 −0.11 −3.01 −1.85 1.85 0.57
AL2699 0.42 −1.85 −0.44 0.68 −0.71
Ideal value 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
In this scenario it can be noticed that there are some kind of recovery in water
drawdown in the early period and then some kind of stability in drawdown, so that
abstraction rate of 65 MCM could be considered as the safe yield with this current
pumping distribution. This can also be ensured when referring to the abstraction rates
before 1986 which was around 65 MCM as drawdown in the observation wells were
almost very small.
Groundwater Numerical Modelling of Amman-Zarqa Basin-Jordan 17
4 Conclusions
The MODFLOW model was calibrated for steady state condition for Amman-Zarqa
Basin by matching observed and simulated initial head counter lines, using drawdown
data for the period 1985–1995. The transient model was then validated using the
drawdown data for the period 1996–2002. Results of the calibrated flow model (steady
and transient states) indicate that the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the B2/A7
aquifer system in AZB ranges between 0.007 to 45 m/d. The calibrated specific yield
values range between 0.0001 and 0.15. The water balance for steady state condition of
B2/A7 aquifer in the AZB can be summarized as follows:
• Total annual direct recharge is 32.5 MCM, Total annual inflow (from Arab
Mountain in the east north of AZB) is 43.9 MCM,
• Total annual outflow is 76.4 MCM. Major outflows from the B2/A7 aquifer system
• toward Azraq Basin (37.2 MCM),
• toward Zarqa River (29.9 MCM),
• 9.3 MCM discharge toward Yarmouk Basin.
Three scenarios were conducted to predict the B2/A7 aquifer system response
under different conditions during the period 2005–2030:
• The first scenario assumed that the pumping rates of year 2005 are constant for 15,
and 25 years. The maximum drawdowns were concentrated in the well field areas,
where they reached about 99.9 and 104.9 m in the years, 2020, and 2030
respectively.
• The second scenario assumed that the present abstraction rates (110.4 MCM/year)
will be reduced to 80 MCM/year. The maximum drawdowns were decreased to
reach about 90, and 94.8 m in the years 2020 and 2030 respectively.
• The third scenario assumed that the present abstraction rates of about 110.4
MCM/year will be reduced to 65 MCM/year. The maximum drawdowns were
decreased to reach about 76.8, and 72.5 m in the years 2020 and 2030 respectively.
The third scenario provides recovery and stability in the drawdown, therefore, the
abstraction rate of 65 MCM could be considered as the safe yield of AZB
References
Anderson, M.P., Woessner, W.W.: Applied Groundwater Modeling - Simulation of Flow and
Advective Transport (1992)
BGR/MWI: Groundwater Resources for Northern Jordan, vol. 4: Contribution to the
Hydrogeology of Northern Jordan, Amman-Jordan (2001)
BGR/WAJ: Groundwater Resources for Northern Jordan, vol. 5: Groundwater Modeling, Part 2:
A Numerical Model of the Siwaqa-Qatrana-Hasa Well Field”, Amman-Jordan (1998)
BGR/WAJ: Groundwater Resources for Northern Jordan, vol. 1: Rainfall, Spring Discharge and
Baseflow, Amman-Jordan (1996)
BGR/WAJ: Groundwater Resources for Northern Jordan, vol. 3: Structural Features of the main
Hydrogeological Units in the Northern Jordan, Amman-Jordan (1994a)
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