Week 8 lecture
Week 8 lecture
Mortgage-backed securities
Presented by
Dr James Cummings
Discipline of Finance
– Payment-to-Income Ratio
– The payment-to-income ratio (PTI) is the ratio of monthly payments to
monthly income, which measures the ability of the applicant to make
monthly payments (both mortgage and real estate tax payments).
– The lower the PTI, the greater the likelihood that the applicant will be
able to meet the required monthly mortgage payments.
– Loan-to-Value Ratio
– The loan-to-value ratio (LTV) is the ratio of the amount of the loan to the
market (or appraised) value of the property.
– The lower this ratio is, the greater the protection for the lender if the
applicant defaults on the payments and the lender must repossess and
sell the property.
– The LTV has been found in numerous studies to be the single most
important determinant of the likelihood of default.
– The rationale is straightforward: Homeowners with large amounts of
equity in their properties are unlikely to default.
– Data on the behaviour of borrowers indicate that they have an
increased propensity to voluntarily stop making their mortgage
payments once the current LTV exceeds 125%, even if they can afford
making monthly payments. This behaviour is referred to as a ‘strategic
default’ behaviour.
– Amortisation Type
– The amount of the monthly loan payment that represents the repayment
of the principal borrowed is called the amortisation.
– Traditionally, both FRMs and ARMs are fully amortising loans.
• What this means is that the monthly mortgage payments made by
the borrower are such that they not only provide the lender with the
contractual interest but also are sufficient to completely repay the
amount borrowed when the last monthly mortgage payment is
made.
– Amortisation Type
– Fully amortising fixed-rate loans have a payment that is constant over
the life of the loan.
– For example, suppose a loan has an original balance of $200,000, a
note rate of 7.5%, and a term of 30 years.
• Then the monthly mortgage payment would be $1,398.43.
• The formula for calculating the monthly mortgage payment is
i (1 + i ) n
MP = MB0 n
(1 + i ) − 1
where MP = monthly mortgage payment ($), MB0 = original
mortgage balance ($), i = note rate divided by 12 (in decimal),
and n = number of months of the mortgage loan.
– Amortisation Type
– To calculate the remaining mortgage balance at the end of any month,
the following formula is used:
(1 + i ) n − (1 + i )t
MBt = MB0 n
(1 + i ) − 1
where MBt = mortgage balance after t months, MB0 = original
mortgage balance ($), i = note rate divided by 12 (in decimal), and n
= number of months of the mortgage loan.
– Amortisation Type
– To calculate the portion of the monthly mortgage payment that is the
scheduled principal payment for a month, the following formula is used:
i (1 + i )t −1
SPt = MB0 n
(1 + i ) − 1
where SPt = scheduled principal repayment for month t, MB0 = original
mortgage balance ($), i = note rate divided by 12 (in decimal), and n
= number of months of the mortgage loan.
– Amortisation Type
– For example, suppose that for month 12 (t = 12), we have
=MB0 $200,000;
= i 0.00625;
= n 360
– Then the scheduled principal repayment for month 12 is
i (1 + i )t −1
SPt = MB0 n
(1 + i ) − 1
0.00625(1.00625)12−1
= $200,000 360
(1.00625) − 1
= $158.95
– Amortisation Type
– For an ARM, the monthly mortgage payment adjusts periodically.
• Thus, the monthly mortgage payments must be recalculated at each
reset date.
• This process of resetting the mortgage loan payment is referred to
as recasting the loan.
– During 2001–2007 , several types of non-traditional amortisation
schemes became popular in the mortgage market.
• The most popular was the interest-only product.
• With this type of loan, only interest was paid for a predetermined
period of time called the lockout period.
– Credit Guarantees
– Mortgage loans can be classified based on whether a credit guarantee
associated with the loan is provided by the federal government, a
government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), or a private entity.
• Loans that are backed by agencies of the federal government are
referred to under the generic term of government loans and are
guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
– The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) oversees
two agencies that guarantee government loans:
1) Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and
2) Veterans Administration (VA).
– Credit Guarantees
– In contrast to government loans, there are loans that have no explicit
guarantee from the federal government.
• Such loans are said to be obtained from ‘conventional financing’
and therefore are referred to in the market as conventional loans.
• Although a conventional loan might not be insured when it is
originated, a loan may qualify to be insured when it is included in a
pool of mortgage loans that backs a mortgage-backed security
(MBS).
– MBSs are those loans issued by two GSEs, Freddie Mac and
Fannie Mae.
– A conventional loan can be insured by a private mortgage insurer.
– Credit Risk
– Credit risk is the risk that the homeowner/borrower will default.
– For FHA- and VA-insured mortgages, this risk is minimal.
– The LTV ratio provides a useful measure of the risk of loss of principal in
case of default.
• At one time, investors considered the LTV only at the time of
origination (called the original LTV) in their analysis of credit risk.
• Because of periods in which there has been a decline in housing
prices, the current LTV has become the focus of attention.
– Liquidity Risk
– Although there is a secondary market for mortgage loans, the fact is
that bid-ask spreads are large compared to other debt instruments.
– That is, mortgage loans tend to be rather illiquid because they are large
and indivisible.
– Price Risk
– The price of a fixed-income instrument will move in an opposite direction
from market interest rates.
– Thus, a rise in interest rates will decrease the price of a mortgage loan.
– Prepayment Risk
– The three components of the cash flow are
1) interest
2) principal repayment (scheduled principal repayment or
amortisation)
3) prepayment
– Prepayment risk is the risk associated with a mortgage’s cash flow due to
prepayments.
• More specifically, investors are concerned that borrowers will pay
off a mortgage when prevailing mortgage rates fall below the
loan’s note rate.
– Beware of Convention
– The PSA prepayment benchmark is simply a market convention.
– It is the product of a study by the PSA based on FHA prepayment
experience.
– Data that the PSA committee examined seemed to suggest that
mortgages became seasoned (i.e., prepayment rates tended to level
off) after 30 months and the CPR tended to be 6%.
– Astute money managers recognise that the CPR is a convenient
shorthand enabling market participants to quote yield and/or price but
that, as a convention for determining value, it has many limitations.
– Bond-Equivalent Yield
– For a pass-through, the yield that makes the present value of the cash
flow equal to the price is a monthly interest rate.
• The yield on a pass-through must be calculated so as to make it
comparable to the yield to maturity for a bond.
– This is accomplished by computing the bond-equivalent yield.
• For a pass-through security, the semi-annual yield is
semi-annual cash flow yield = (1 + yM)6 – 1
where yM is the monthly interest rate that will equate the present
value of the projected monthly cash flow to the price of the pass-
through.
• The bond-equivalent yield is found by doubling the semi-annual cash
flow yield; that is,
bond-equivalent yield = 2[(1 + yM)6 – 1]
– Average Life
– The average life of a mortgage-backed security is the average time to
receipt of principal payments (scheduled principal payments and
projected prepayments), weighted by the amount of principal expected.
– Mathematically, the average life is expressed as follows:
T
t × principal received at month t
average life = ∑
t =1 12(total principal)
where T is the number of months.
– The average life of a pass-through depends on the PSA prepayment
assumption.
– To see this, the average life is shown in the table over page for different
prepayment speeds for a hypothetical pass-through. The underlying
mortgages are fixed-rate level-payment mortgages with a WAC of
8.125%. The pass-through rate is 7.5%, with a WAM of 357 months.
– An investor who owns pass-through securities does not know what the cash
flow will be because that depends on prepayments.
– The risk associated with prepayments is called prepayment risk.
– Suppose that an investor buys a 10% coupon pass-through security at a
time when mortgage rates are 10%.
– If mortgage rates decline to 6%, there will be two adverse consequences:
1) We know from the basic property of fixed-income securities that the
price of an option-free bond will rise.
• But in the case of a pass-through security, the rise in price will not be
as large as that of an option-free bond because a fall in interest
rates increases the borrower’s incentive to prepay the loan and
refinance the debt at a lower rate.
2) The cash flow must be reinvested at a lower rate.
– These two adverse consequences when mortgage rates decline are referred
to as contraction risk.
– If mortgage rates rise to 15%, the price of the pass-through, like the price
of any bond, will decline.
– But it will decline more because the higher rates will tend to slow down the
rate of prepayment.
– This is just the time when investors want prepayments to speed up so that
they can reinvest the prepayments at the higher market interest rate.
– This adverse consequence of rising mortgage rates is called extension risk.
– Sequential-Pay Tranches
– The first CMO was created in 1983 and was structured so that each
class of bond would be retired sequentially.
• Such structures are referred to as sequential-pay CMOs.
– A CMO is created by redistributing the cash flow—interest and
principal—to the different tranches based on payment rules.
• The payment rules at the bottom of the table over page describe
how the cash flow from the pass-through (i.e., collateral) is to be
distributed to the four tranches.
• There are separate rules for the payment of the coupon interest and
the payment of principal, the principal being the total of the
regularly scheduled principal payment and any prepayments.
– Sequential-Pay Tranches
– Each tranche receives periodic coupon interest payments based on the
amount of the outstanding balance at the beginning of the month.
• The disbursement of the principal, however, is made in a special
way.
• A tranche is not entitled to receive principal until the entire principal
of the preceding tranche has been paid off.
– The principal pay-down window for a tranche is the time period between
the beginning and the ending of the principal payments to that tranche.
• Tranches can have average lives that are both shorter and longer
than the collateral, thereby attracting investors who have a
preference for an average life different from that of the collateral.
– Sequential-Pay Tranches
– There is considerable variability of the average life for the tranches.
– However, there is some protection provided for each tranche against
prepayment risk.
• This is because prioritising the distribution of principal (i.e.,
establishing the payment rules for principal) effectively protects the
shorter-term tranche A in this structure against extension risk.
• This protection must come from somewhere, so it comes from the
three other tranches.
• Similarly, tranches C and D provide protection against extension risk
for tranches A and B.
• At the same time, tranches C and D are provided protection against
contraction risk.
– Accrual Bonds
– In many sequential-pay CMO structures, at least one tranche does not
receive current interest.
– Instead, the interest for that tranche would accrue and be added to the
principal balance.
– Such a bond class is commonly referred to as an accrual tranche, or a Z
bond (because the bond is similar to a zero-coupon bond).
– The interest that would have been paid to the accrual bond class is then
used to speed up the paydown of the principal balance of earlier bond
classes.
• To see this, consider FJF-02, a hypothetical CMO structure with the
same collateral as FJF-01 and with four tranches, each with a
coupon rate of 7.5%.
• The difference is in the last tranche, Z, which is an accrual.
• The structure for FJF-02 is shown in the table over page.
The average lives for tranches A, B, and C are shorter in FJF-02 than in FJF-01
because of the inclusion of the accrual bond. For example, at 165 PSA, the
average lives are as follows:
The reason for the shortening of the non-accrual tranches is that the interest that
would be paid to the accrual bond is being allocated to the other tranches.
Tranche Z in FJF-02 will have a longer average life than that of tranche D in
FJF-01.
– Fabozzi, F.J. and Fabozzi, F.A. (2021), Bond Markets, Analysis, and
Strategies, 10th edition, MIT Press
– Chapters 11 to 14
– Schwartz, C. (2023), ‘Australian Securitisation Markets: Responding to
Change’, Speech to the Australian Securitisation Conference, Reserve Bank
of Australia, 21 November.