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LogisticPopulationModel

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1 views2 pages

LogisticPopulationModel

Uploaded by

Connor Silveria
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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The Logistic Population Model

(Section 1.2)

Nicholas Moore, PhD

1 Motivation
Consider modelling the size of a population over time. It follows that the rate at which the population grows
is proportional to the population size, that is, the larger the population, the faster it grows. This is the model
we add in the last section: x ′ = ax.

This growth cannot hold forever, eventually the members of the population will compete for resources (food,
space, etc.), slowing the growth rate. When the population gets too large, there is too much competition and
the population decreases. Thus we need a new model. Watch the following video discussing the Logistic
Population Model.

Video

A N I NTRODUCTION TO THE L OGISTIC P OPULATION M ODEL

The general logistic population model contains the variable N for the carrying capacity of the population
system. However, as is common in mathematics, without loss of generality, we will set N = 1 and instead
assume that the choose the units of x such that x = 1 is the carrying capacity. In this way, instead of a number
of individuals, x will represent the population as a fraction of the carrying capacity. This gives the version of
the logistic population model that we’ll be studying from now on:

x ′ = ax (1 − x )

This is a first-order, autonomous, nonlinear ODE:

• First-order because the highest order derivative in the equation is the first derivative

• Autonomous because the right-hand side depends only on the dependent variable, x, not on the
independent variable t

• Nonlinear because the right-hand side is nonlinear in x (more specifically, it is quadratic in x)

This ODE can be solved using the separation of variables technique:

dx
= ax (1 − x )
dt
dx
Z Z
= a dt
x (1 − x )
From here, use partial fraction decomposition on the left-hand side to obtain:
1 1
Z
+ dx = at + C
x 1−x

1
Finally, integrate and solve for x:
Ke at
x (t) =
1 + Ke at
If we also set up an IVP, with x (0) = β, then we can solve for K:

β
K=
1−β
so:
βe at
x (t) =
1 − β + βe at

2 Equilibrium Points
Examining (1) above, we can observe there are two equilibrium points: x = 0 and x = 1. This “makes sense”
because if the population is 0, then it will obviously stay 0 for all time. Similarly, if the population is at the
carrying capacity, then it will remain stable. It would be helpful however to have a way to visualize the
solution behaviors, especially for different population sizes and how they evolve over time. One option
would be to find and plot solutions to the ODE, but since we already have the derivative of the population,
we can visualize this information to help us determine approximate solution behavior. In particular, we can
use Slope Fields to do this visualization. Watch the video below about Slope Fields.

Video

I NTRO TO S LOPE F IELDS

Notice that doing this process by hand can be very time-consuming and tedious. Luckily, tedious, time-
consuming processes are often the types of things that computers are very good at. In this case, there are
several different pieces of software which you could use for building slope fields. One such option is a
MATLAB app. I have recorded a video over this including how to install the app and use it, but at the
current time, the IT Multimedia Team is running a little behind so I don’t have a recording to post. Once
they have caught up, I’ll make sure to post that video.

If you are the type that doesn’t mind figuring out software on your own, here are the links you’ll need to
get started. If you have access to MATLAB, either with a student license or using the free online version
(which limits you to 20 hours per week), I would use the Slope Field and Phase Plane apps posted at
https://github.com/MathWorks-Teaching-Resources/Phase-Plane-and-Slope-Field. If you don’t have MAT-
LAB, you can use the (somewhat outdated but still functional) java versions at https://www.cs.unm.edu/ joel/d-
field/. If you’re more the programming type, I’m sure there are similar capabilities in some of the python
plotting packages. Both links include installation and usage instructions.

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