CHAPTER ONE

ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

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  Review of Set theory
 Set is a collection of elements or objects of interest.
 Empty set (denoted by )
• A set containing no elements
 Universal set (denoted by S)
• A set containing all possible elements
 Complement (Not). The complement of A is  A 
• A set containing all elements of S not in A

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 Cont’d
 Complement of a Set

Venn Diagram illustrating the Complement of an event

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 Cont’d
Intersection (And) → A∩ 𝐵
A set containing all elements in both A and B.
Union (Or) → 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
 A set containing all elements in A or B or both.

Mutually exclusive o r disjoint sets

Sets having no elements in common, having no
intersection, whose intersection is empty set.

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 Sets: A Intersecting with B

A
B

A B

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 Sets: A Union B

A
B

A B

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 Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint Sets

Sets have nothing in common

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  The Concept of Probability
 Probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment.
 It is the measure of how likely an outcome is to occur.
 Definitions of some probability terms
 Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or
any process which generates well defined outcome.
 Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can be
repeated any number of times under similar conditions.
 It is possible to enumerate the total number of possible
outcomes without predicting an individual outcome.
 Outcome: The result of a single trial of a random experiment.

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 Cont’d
 Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
Example: .What is the sample space for the following
experiment
a) Roll a dice one time.
b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life
length by time.
Solution: a) 𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
𝑏) 𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻 , 𝐻𝑇 , 𝑇𝐻 , 𝑇𝑇
𝑐) 𝑆 = {𝑡/𝑡 ≥ 0}
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 Cont’d
 Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement
about one or more outcomes of a random experiment
.They are denoted by capital letters.
Example: Considering a fair dice is rolled once
experiment, let A be the event of odd numbers, B be the
event of even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.
𝐴 = 1,3,5
𝐵 = 2,4,6
𝐶 = 𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡.

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 Cont’d
 Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of
occurring.
 Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A
means non-occurrence of A and is denoted by 𝐴′ , 𝑜𝑟 𝐴𝑐 , or 𝐴 .
 Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or
sample point.
 Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen
at the same time.
 Independent Events: Two events are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other
occurring.

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 Cont’d
 Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the
first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the
second event in a way the probability is changed.

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  Counting Rules
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
 The number of elements of an event.
 The number of elements of the sample space.
 In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can
use several rules of counting.
 The addition rule.
 The multiplication rule.
 Permutation rule.
 Combination rule.
To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a
useful device called tree diagram is used.
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 The Addition rule
o Suppose that there are k-procedures, the 1st procedure
can be made in n1 ways, the 2nd procedure can be made
in n2 ways,…, the kth procedure can be made in nk ways.
Then the total number of possible ways we have will be
(n1+n2+n3+…. + nk).
 Example: Suppose we planning a trip and are deciding
by bus and train transportation. If there are 3 bus routes
and 2 train routes to go from A to B. find the available
routes for the trip.
 Solution: There are 3+2 =5 routes for someone to go
from A to B.
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 The Multiplication Rule
o If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be
made in n1 ways, the second can be made in n2 ways…,
the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole choice
can be made in (n1*n2*n3*….*nk) ways.
 Example :- An airline has 6 flights from A to B, and 7
flights from B to C per day. If the flights are to be made
on separate days, in how many different ways can the
airline offer from A to C?
 Solution: There are 6 flights from A to B, 7 flights are
available to make flight from B to C. Altogether there are
6*7=42 possible flights from A to C.

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 Permutation Rule
 An arrangement of 𝑛 objects in a specified order is called
permutation of the objects.
1. The number of permutations of 𝑛 distinct objects
taken all together is 𝑛!.
Where 𝑛! = 𝑛 ∗ 𝑛 − 1 ∗ 𝑛 − 2 ∗ … … ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1
𝑛! 𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑛 = = = 𝑛!. In definition 0! = 1! = 1
(𝑛−𝑛)! 0!
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order
using r objects at a time is called the permutation of n
objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as 𝑛𝑃𝑟

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 Cont’d
And the formula is;
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are
unlike k2 are unlike ---- etc is
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑘1 ! ∗ 𝑘2 ! ∗. . . 𝑘𝑛 !
 Example:
1) Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there two letters at a time?
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 Cont’d
2) How many different permutations can be made from the letters
in the word “CORRECTION”?
Solutions
1)
a) Here 𝑛 = 4, there are four distnict objects.
⟹ 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 4! = 24 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
b) Here 𝑛 = 4 and 𝑟 = 2
4!
⟹ there are 4𝑃2 = = 12 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠.
(4−2)!
2) Here 𝑛 = 10 of which 2 are C, 2 are O, 2 are R, 1 E, 1 T,1 I, and
1 N. i.e. 𝑘1 = 2, 𝑘2 = 2, 𝑘3 = 2, 𝑘4 = 𝑘5 = 𝑘6 = 𝑘7 = 1

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 Cont’d
Using the third rule of permutation there are;
10!
= 453600 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
2!∗2!∗2!∗1!∗1!∗1!∗1!

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 Exercise
 A company has a database of 8 different software
applications. If a system administrator wants to create a
backup schedule for 4 applications, how many different
ways can the applications be arranged in the schedule?

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 Combination Rule
Combination:- A selection of objects without regard
to order is called combination.
Combination Rule; The number of combinations of
r objects selected from n objects is denoted by
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛!
nCr or 𝑟
= and is given by 𝑟
=
𝑛−𝑟 !∗𝑟!
Example:
In a software development team, there are 5 developers. If the team
leader wants to select 3 developers to work on a special project, how
many different combinations of developers can be chosen?

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 Solution
𝑛 = 5 total developers
𝑟 = 3 ( 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒)
𝑛 𝑛! 5!
𝑟
= = = 10
𝑛−𝑟 !∗𝑟! 2!∗3!
So, there are 10 different combinations of developers can be
chosen.

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 Approaches to measuring Probability
 There are four different conceptual approaches to the
study of probability theory. These are:
 The classical approach.
 The relative frequency approach.
 The axiomatic approach.
 The subjective approach.
 The Classical approach ;
Definition: If a random experiment with N-equally
likely outcomes is conducted and out of these NA
outcomes are favorable to the event A, then the
probability that event A occur denoted 𝑃 𝐴 is defined as

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 Cont’d
𝑁𝐴 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐴 𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃 𝐴 = = =
𝑁 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛(𝑆)
Examples:
o A fair dice is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions: First identify the sample space, say S
𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
⟹𝑁=𝑛 𝑆 =6
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 Cont’d
a) Let 𝐴 be the event of number 4
𝐴 = {4}
⟹ 𝑁𝐴 = 𝑛 𝐴 = 1
𝑛(𝐴) 1
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.167
𝑛(𝑆) 6
 The relative frequency approach ;
Definition: The probability of an event A is the
proportion of outcomes favorable to A in the long
run when the experiment is repeated under same
𝑁𝐴
condition. 𝑃 𝐴 = lim
𝑁→∞ 𝑁

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 Example
1) If records show that 60 out of 100,000 Computers
produced are defective. What is the probability of a newly
produced Computers to be defective?
 Solution: Let A be the event that the newly produced
Computer is defective.
𝑁𝐴 60
𝑃 𝐴 = lim = = 0.0006
𝑁→∞ 𝑁 100,000
 The axiomatic approach; Let E be a random
experiment and S be a sample space associated with E.
With each event A a real number called the probability
of A satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability.
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 Axioms (Postulates) of probability
1) 𝑃 𝐴 ≥0
2) 𝑃 𝑆 = 1 , 𝑆 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡.
3) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability
that one or the other occur equals the sum of the two
probabilities. i. e.
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)
4) 𝑃 𝐴𝐶 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
5) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
6) 𝑃 ∅ = 0, ∅ 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡.

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