Sample Final

COR1-GB.1305 – Statistics and Data Analysis

The final is open book and open note. Your are also permitted use of a calculator. Multiple
choice problems are worth 5 points each. It is possible to get partial credit for an incorrect multiple
choice problem answer, but only if you show your work or provide an explanation for your answer.

Problem 1 (25 points)

The following table presents data collected in the 1960s for 21 countries on X = Annual Per Capita
Cigarette Consumption (“Cigarette”), and Y = Deaths from Coronary Heart Disease per 100,000
persons of age 35–64 (“Coronary”).

Country Cigarette Coronary

United States 3900 259.9
Canada 3350 211.6
Australia 3220 238.1
New Zealand 3220 211.8
United Kingdom 2790 194.1
Switzerland 2780 124.5
Ireland 2770 187.3
Iceland 2290 110.5
Finland 2160 233.1
West Germany 1890 150.3
Netherlands 1810 124.7
Greece 1800 41.2
Austria 1770 182.1
Belgium 1700 118.1
Mexico 1680 31.9
Italy 1510 114.3
Denmark 1500 144.9
France 1410 144.9
Sweden 1270 126.9
Spain 1200 43.9
Norway 1090 136.3
 France 1410 144.9
Sweden 1270 126.9
Spain 1200 43.9
Norway 1090 136.3

Scatterplot of Coronary vs. Cigarette Consumption Residuals Versus the Fitted Values
(response is Coronary)

250 100

200
Coronary

150

Residual
0
100

50

0
-100
1000 2000 3000 4000
100 150 200 250
Cigarette
Fitted Value

Analysis of Variance

Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value

Regression 1 40484.2 40484.2 18.68 0.000
Cigarette 1 40484.2 40484.2 18.68 0.000
Error 19 41181.5 2167.4
Lack-of-Fit 18 40835.6 2268.6 6.56 0.299
Pure Error 1 345.8 345.8
Total 20 81665.6

Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)

46.5558 49.57% 46.92% 41.31%

Coefficients

Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF

Constant 29.5 29.5 1.00 0.330
Cigarette 0.0557 0.0129 4.32 0.000 1.00

Regression Equation

Coronary = 29.5 + 0.0557 Cigarette

(a) Based on the scatterplot of Y versus X, does there appear to be a linear relationship between
cigarette consumption and heart disease? If so, does the relationship appear to be negative or
positive?
(b) What patterns or problems, if any, do you see in the residuals versus fitted values plot? Would
you feel reasonably comfortable in fitting a simple linear regression model to this data set?
(c) Write the equation for the fitted model.
(d) Give an interpretation of the fitted slope, β̂1 .

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(e) How much natural variability is associated with β̂0 ? (In other words, approximately what is
the standard deviation of the random variable β̂0 ?)

.........

Problem 2 (25 points)

For the situation described in Problem 1, answer these questions.

(a) Based on the Minitab output, is it plausible that the true intercept β0 is zero? Explain. What
would be the practical interpretation of the result that β0 = 0? Is there any contradiction here?

(b) Do you think that natural variability alone could account for such a large value of β̂1 as actually
found here? Explain.

(c) Using the Minitab output, determine whether sufficient statistical evidence exists to conclude
that there is a linear relationship between X and Y at the 1% level of significance.

(d) Based on R2 , assess the strength of the linear relationship between X and Y .

(e) Do the p-value for β̂1 and the value of R2 provide contradictory evidence on the strength of
the linear relationship between smoking and heart disease? Explain.

.........

Problem 3 (10 points)

The weights of ten $100 casino chips (selected at random from a large batch of new $100 chips at
the Trump Castle Casino) averaged 0.8 ounces, with a sample standard deviation of 0.03 ounces.

(a) Assuming that the weights of the chips in the batch are normally distributed, construct a 95%
confidence interval for the mean weight of the entire batch.

(b) Does the interval you got in part (a) have a 95% chance of containing the mean weight of the
entire batch? Explain.

.........

Problem 4 (5 points)

For the situation described in Problem 3, if µ is the mean weight for the entire batch, test H0 : µ =
.83 versus Ha : µ 6= .83 at level .05.

.........

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Problem 5 (25 points)

One hundred randomly selected milk cows were observed for one week and then given a genetically
engineered drug designed to increase milk production. The increase in milk production (second
week minus first week) averaged to 11 gallons with a sample standard deviation of 50 gallons.

(a) State the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for this problem, in terms of µ.

(b) What is the meaning of µ (in terms of cows)?

(c) What do the null and alternative hypotheses imply about the effectiveness of the drug?

(d) Give all values of α at which the null hypothesis can be rejected.

(e) Suppose the drug had no effect. Then out of 1000 random samples of 100 cows, how many
samples would be expected to yield an increase in milk production at least as large as what
was found in our sample?

.........

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 Questions 6–9 concern the following situation. A random sample of 50 adults were asked how
much they spend on lottery tickets, and were interviewed about various socioeconomic variables.
The variables are

PercLott = Percentage of total household income spent on the lottery. (This is Y ).

YrsEdu = Number of years of education,
Age = The persons Age,
Kids = Number of Children,
Income = Personal income (Thousands of Dollars).

Here is the Minitab regression output:

Analysis of Variance

Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value

Regression 4 404.42 101.10 17.72 0.000
YrsEdu 1 60.68 60.68 10.63 0.002
Age 1 0.21 0.21 0.04 0.850
Kids 1 0.55 0.55 0.10 0.761
Income 1 23.30 23.30 4.08 0.050
Error 45 256.80 5.71
Total 49 661.22

Model Summary

S R-Sq R-Sq(adj) R-sq(pred)

2.389 61.16% 57.71% 52.16%

Coefficients

Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF

Constant 15.070 2.444 6.17 0.000
YrsEdu -0.5911 0.1813 -3.26 0.002 1.47
Age 0.00647 0.03395 0.19 0.850 2.81
Kids 0.0816 0.2665 0.31 0.761 1.93
Income -0.06663 0.03305 -2.02 0.050 1.58

Regression Equation

PercLott = 15.1 - 0.591 YrsEdu + 0.0065 Age + 0.082 Kids - 0.0666 Income

Problem 6

Based on the output, is there statistical evidence to suggest that relatively educated people spend
a different amount on lotteries than relatively uneducated people?
(a) Yes
(b) No
.........

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Problem 7

The results of the F test imply that, beyond a reasonable doubt:

(a) All of the true slope coefficients in the model are nonzero

(b) At least one of the true slope coefficients in the model is nonzero

(c) None of the true slope coefficients in the model is nonzero

(d) All of the estimated slope coefficients are nonzero

(e) At least one of the estimated slope coefficients is nonzero

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Problem 8

The 95% confidence interval for the true coefficient of YrsEdu is

(a) (-2.12, 3.14)

(b) (-0.5911, 0.5911)

(c) (-1,1)

(d) (-0.956, -0.226)

(e) (-1.06, -0.124).

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Problem 9

Performing a two-tailed hypotesis test for the null hypothesis that the true coefficient of YrsEdu
is -1, at the 5% level of significance, we:

(a) Reject the null hypothesis

(b) Do not reject the null hypothesis

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Problem 10

Let’s return to the simple regression described in Problem 1. The residual for Greece is:

(a) 1800

(b) 29.45

(c) 31.74

(d) 1768.26

(e) -88.474

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Problem 11

A sample of size 100 is going to be taken from a population with mean 3 and variance 25. The
probability that the sample mean will exceed 4 is approximately:

(a) .0456

(b) .4207

(c) .0793

(d) .3446

(e) .0228

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Problem 12

Suppose that X and Y are independent random variables with P (X > 4) = 0.8 and P (Y > 5) = 0.6.
The probability that X exceeds 4 and Y exceeds 5 is

(a) 1.4

(b) 0.92

(c) 0

(d) 0.48

(e) Not enough information to determine

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