Transportation Planning

Module III

Dr. Ritvik Chauhan

Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli
Email: [email protected]
Trip Distribution
• Objective
• Where the trips are going?
• What influences the destination?
• Travel time, Distance etc.
• Output
• OD matrix

TAZ-Traffic Analysis Zone

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Notation of OD matrix
Two-dimensional array of cells • The main diagonal corresponds to intra-zonal trips

• Tij is the number of trips between origin i and

destination j;

• Oi is the total number of trips originating in zone i,

and Dj is the total number of trips attracted to
zone j.
• Cell values in a P-A trip table are non directional,
whereas the cell values of an O-D trip table have
directional meaning, indicating the number of
trips going from an origin to a destination.
• Pi is the number of trips produced or generated in
a zone i and Qj those attracted to zone j.

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Trip Distribution Models
• Growth factor models Uniform factor method

Average factor method

Detroit factor method

Fratar method
Furness method
• Synthetic models
Gravity model

Tanners model

Opportunity models
LP models

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Singly constrained and doubly constrained models
• If reliable information is available to estimate both Oi and Dj then the model must satisfy both
conditions; in this case the model is said to be doubly constrained.

and

• In some cases there will be information only about one of these constraints (origin or destination), for
example to estimate all the Oi’s, and therefore the model will be said to be singly constrained.

or

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Uniform growth factor
▪ If the only information available is about a general growth rate for the whole of the study area

▪ Advantage 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝐸

• Simple to understand
• Useful for short-term planning (3 to 5 years)
▪ Limitation
• Same growth factor is assumed for all zones
▪ Disadvantages
• Unrealistic (one would expect differential growth for different parts of the study area.) The
assumption of uniform growth rate for the entire study area is not correct, because each zone will
have its own growth rate.
• The method underestimates movements where present day development is limited and over-
estimates movements where present day development is intensive.
• If the present trip movement between any two zones is zero, the future trip movement also
becomes zero. This may rarely happens in reality.

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Example
Base-year trip matrix 1 2 3 4 oi
1 5 50 100 200 355
2 50 5 100 300 455
3 50 100 5 100 255
4 100 200 250 20 570
dj 205 355 455 620 1635
If the growth in traffic in the study area is expected to be of 20% in the next three years (GF is 1.2)
Future estimated trip matrix 200*1.2
1 2 3 4 oi
1 6 60 120 240 426
2 60 6 120 360 546
3 60 120 6 120 306
4 120 240 300 24 684
dj 246 426 546 744 1962
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Singly Constrained Growth-Factor Methods
• Information is available on the expected growth in trips either originating/attracting in each zone
• It would be possible to apply this origin-specific or destination specific growth factor
• For origin-specific factors
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝐸𝑖

• For destination-specific factors

𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝐸𝑗

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Example
1 2 3 4 oi Oi
1 5 50 100 200 355 400
2 50 5 100 300 455 460
3 50 100 5 100 255 400
4 100 200 250 20 570 702
dj 205 355 455 620 1635 1962 400
= ∗ 200
• Problem can be 355
solved by multiplying
each row by the ratio 1 2 3 4 oi Oi
of target Oi over the
1 5.6 56.3 112.7 225.4 400 400
base year total
2 50.5 5.1 101.1 303.3 460 460 702
= ∗ 20
3 78.4 156.9 7.8 156.9 400 400 570
4 123.2 246.3 307.9 24.6 702 702
dj 257.7 464.6 529.5 701.2 1962 1962
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Doubly Constrained Growth Factor Model
• When information is available on the growth in the number of trips originating and
terminating in each zone
• There will be different growth rates for trips in and out of each zone
• Two sets of growth factors for each zone
• Implies that there are two constraints for that model and such a model is called doubly
constrained growth factor model

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Average Growth Factor Method
• G.F for each zone is calculated based on the average of G.F calculated for both ends of the trip
• The factor represents the average growth associated wit the origin and destination zone
𝐸𝑖 +𝐸𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 ×
2
Steps:
1. Calculate 𝐸𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸𝑗
2. Estimate 𝑇𝑖𝑗
3. Estimate new 𝐸𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸𝑗
4. Continue the iterations until 𝐸𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸𝑗 approaches unity and the value balance within plus or minus 1%
Disadvantages
• Same disadvantage of uniform factor model
• Multiplying factor has no real significance and is only a convenient tool to balance the movements
• There is no explanation about the factors causing movements
• Large no. of iterations are required

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Example
𝐸𝑖
1 2 3 oi Oi 𝑂𝑖
=
𝑜𝑖 (1+3)*100/2
1 60 100 200 360 360 1
2 100 20 300 420 1260 3
3 200 300 20 520 3120 6 𝑂𝑖
1 2 3 𝑜𝑖′ Oi 𝐸𝑖 =
dj 360 420 520 1300 4740 𝑜𝑖′

Dj 360 1260 3120 1 60 200 700 960 360 0.375

𝐷𝑗
𝐸𝑗 = 1 3 6 2 200 60 1350 1610 1260 0.783
𝑑𝑗
3 700 1350 120 2170 3120 1.438

𝑑𝑗′ 960 1610 2170 4740

Dj 360 1260 3120

𝐷𝑗
𝐸𝑗 = 0.375 0.783 1.438
𝑑𝑗′

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Fratar Method
• Introduced by T.J. Fratar
• Predicting future interzonal trips by successive approximations
• Total no. of trips are distributed to the interzonal movements according to the relative
attractiveness of each movement

𝑂𝑖 𝐷𝑗 σ𝑘 𝑡𝑖𝑘
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × × ×
𝑜𝑖 𝑑𝑗 σ𝑘 𝐷𝑘 𝑡 Relative attractiveness
𝑑𝑘 𝑖𝑘

σ𝑘 𝑡𝑖𝑘
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝐸𝑖 × 𝐸𝑗 × 𝑘
σ 𝐸𝑘 𝑡𝑖𝑘

where k is the total no. of zones

Disadvantages • Process is laborious

• Does not account for the change in accessibility

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Example
𝑂𝑖 𝑂𝑖
1 2 3 4 oi Oi 𝐸𝑖 = 1 2 3 4 oi Oi 𝐸𝑖 =
𝑜𝑖 𝑜𝑖
1 - 10 12 18 40 80 2
1 - 36.4 21.8 21.8 80 80 1
2 10 - 14 14 38 114 3
2 41.5 - 43.5 29 114 114 1
3 12 14 - 6 32 48 1.5
3 16 28 - 4 48 48 1
4 18 14 6 - 38 38 1
4 15.8 18.3 3.9 - 38 38 1
dj 40 38 32 38
dj 40 38 32 38
Dj 80 114 48 38
Dj 80 114 48 38
𝐷𝑗
𝐸𝑗 = 2 3 1.5 1
𝑑𝑗 𝐷𝑗
𝐸𝑗 = 2 3 1.5 1
𝑑𝑗

σ𝑘 𝑡𝑖𝑘 𝑡12 + 𝑡13 + 𝑡14

𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 × 𝐸𝑖 × 𝐸𝑗 × 𝑘 𝑇12 = 𝑡12 × 𝐸1 × 𝐸2 ×
σ 𝐸𝑘 𝑡𝑖𝑘 𝐸2 𝑡12 + 𝐸3 𝑡13 + 𝐸4 𝑡14

10 + 12 + 18
𝑇12 = 10 × 2 × 3 ×
3 × 10 + 1.5 × 12 + 1 × 18

𝑇12 = 36.4

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Furness method
• Method devised by K.P.Furness
• Iterative in nature
• Steps
• Estimates of future traffic originating and terminating at each zone are required
• Origin GF and destination GF are calculated for each zones
• Each column of the matrix is then scaled by the destination GF, so that column total
become equals to the predicted column totals
• New set of origin GF are calculated and each rows are then scale by these factors
• Procedure is repeated until all GF are unity

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Example 8*1.5

𝑂𝑖 𝐸𝑖
1 2 3 4 oi Oi 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑂𝑖
𝑜𝑖 1 2 3 4 oi Oi =
𝑜𝑖
1 8 3 16 15 42 147 3.5
2 6 9 8 5 28 42 1.5 1 12 3 32 45 92 147 1.6
3 10 8 3 8 29 32 1.1
2 9 9 16 15 49 42 0.86
4 2 4 7 12 25 30 1.2
3 15 8 6 24 53 32 0.60
dj 26 24 34 40
Dj 39 24 68 120 4 3 4 14 36 57 30 0.5
𝐷𝑗 dj 39 24 68 120
𝐸𝑗 = 1.5 1 2 3
𝑑𝑗
Dj 39 24 68 120

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Example 1.6*3

𝐸𝑖
𝑂𝑖 1 2 3 4 oi Oi
1 2 3 4 oi Oi =
𝑜𝑖
1 19.2 4.8 51.2 72 147.2 147
1 12 3 32 45 92 147 1.6 2 7.74 7.74 13.76 12.90 42.14 42
3 9 4.8 3.6 14.4 31.8 32
2 9 9 16 15 49 42 0.86
4 1.59 2.12 7.42 19.08 30.21 30
3 15 8 6 24 53 32 0.60
dj 37.53 19.46 75.95 118.38
4 3 4 14 36 57 30 0.5 Dj 39 24 68 120
dj 39 24 68 120 𝐸𝑗
𝐷𝑗 1.04 1.23 0.89 1.01
Dj 39 24 68 120 =
𝑑𝑗

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Detroit Model
𝐸𝑖 × 𝐸𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖𝑗 ×
• Used for trip distribution in Detroit area of USA 𝐸

E -growth factor of entire area

Criticism of GF models
• Present trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first, for which large scale OD studies with
high sample size are needed
• The error in base matrix get magnified
• None of the methods provide a measure of the resistance to travel and all imply that
resistance to travel remain constant
• Neglect the effect of changes in travel pattern by the construction of new facilities and new
network
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Gravity Model
• Based on Newton’s law of gravitation
• Force of attraction between two bodies is directly proportional to the product of the masses
of the two bodies and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them

where F is the gravitational force acting between two

objects, m1 and m2 are the masses of the objects, r is the
distance between the centers of their masses, and G is
the gravitational constant.

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Gravity Model
Trip interchange is directly proportional to the relative attraction between the zones, and is inversely
proportional to the measure of spatial separation

𝐾𝑃𝑖 𝑃𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑛
𝑐𝑖𝑗

K –constant independent of i, n- an exponential constant whose value is usually between 1 and 3

𝐾𝑂𝑖 𝐷𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑛
𝑐𝑖𝑗

𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗

𝐴𝑖 , 𝐵𝑗 are the balancing factors, 𝑓𝑖𝑗 deterrence function for cost of travel or time of travel

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Generalised cost of travel
• It is often convenient to use a measure combining all the main attributes related to the disutility of a journey
and this is normally referred to as the generalised cost of travel
• Considered in terms of distance, time or money units
• Typically a linear function of the attributes of the journey weighted by coefficients which attempt to represent
their relative importance as perceived by the traveller.

t vij is the in-vehicle travel time between i and j;

twij is the walking time to and from stops (stations) or from parking area/lot;
ttij is the waiting time at stops (or time spent searching for a parking space);
tnij is the interchange time, if any;
Fij is a monetary charge: the fare charged to travel between i and j
φj is a terminal (typically parking) cost associated with the journey from i to j;
δ is a modal penalty, a parameter representing all other attributes not included in the generalized measure so far, e.g.
safety, comfort and convenience;
a1 . . .6 are weights attached to each element of cost

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Travel time factor

• Also called friction factor or deterrence

function
• Measure of deterrence that travel time
has on trip making patterns
• Exponential function
𝑓𝑖𝑗 = 𝑒 −𝛽𝑐𝑖𝑗
• Power function
−𝑛
𝑓𝑖𝑗 = 𝑐𝑖𝑗
• Combined function
𝑛 −𝛽𝑐𝑖𝑗
𝑓𝑖𝑗 = 𝑐𝑖𝑗 𝑒

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Singly and Doubly Constrained Gravity Model
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗

σ𝑖 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝐷𝑗 σ𝑗 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑂𝑖
• Classical version of the doubly
constrained model. ෍ 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = ෍ 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗 = 𝐷𝑗
• Singly constrained versions can 𝑖 𝑖
be produced by making one set
of balancing factors 𝐴𝑖 or
𝐵𝑗 equal to one. 𝐷𝑗 = 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 ෍ 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓𝑖𝑗
𝑖
• Therefore singly constrained
model as a special case which 1
can be derived from doubly 𝐵𝑗 =
σ𝑖 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓𝑖𝑗
constrained models.
1
𝐴𝑖 =
σ𝑗 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗

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Steps
• 𝐴𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑗 are interdependent, hence iteration is required
• Set 𝐵𝑗 =1, find
1
𝐴𝑖 =
σ𝑗 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗
• Find 𝐵𝑗
1
𝐵𝑗 =
σ𝑖 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝑓𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗
• Calculate error

• Repeat until convergence

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Problem
The productions from zone 1, 2 and 3 are 98, 106, 122 and attractions to zone 1,2 and 3 are 102, 118, 106. The function
is defined as The cost matrix is as shown below

i j
1 1.0 102 1.0 102.00
1 2 1.0 118 0.69 81.42 216.28 0.00462
3 1.0 106 0.31 32.86
1 1 1.0 102 0.69 70.38
𝐴𝑖 =
σ𝑗 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗
2 2 1.0 118 1.0 118 235.02 0.00425
3 1.0 106 0.44 46.64
1 1.0 102 0.31 31.62
3 2 1.0 118 0.44 51.92 189.54 0.00527
3 1.0 106 1.00 106

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Problem

1 0.00462 98 1.0 0.4523

1 2 0.00425 106 0.694 0.3117 0.9618 1.0397

3 0.00527 122 0.308 0.1978

1 0.00462 98 0.69 0.3124

2 2 0.00425 106 1.0 0.4505 1.0458 0.9562

3 0.00527 122 0.44 0.2829

1 0.00462 98 0.31 0.1404

3 2 0.00425 106 0.44 0.1982 0.9815 1.0188

3 0.00527 122 1.00 0.6429

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Problem
• Compute 𝑇𝑖𝑗
1 2 3
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝐴𝑖 𝑂𝑖 𝐵𝑗 𝐷𝑗 𝑓𝑖𝑗
1 48.01 35.24 15.157 0.00462 98 98.407

2 32.96 50.83 21.40 0.00425 106 105.19

3 21.14 31.919 69.43 0.00527 122 122.489

1.0397 0.9562 1.0188

102 118 106

102.11 117.989 105.987

• Compute error
= 2.03

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Intervening Opportunity Model - Schneider (1963)
• Basic idea is that trip making is not explicitly related to distance but to the relative accessibility of opportunities
for satisfying the objective of the trip
• Assume that the trip interchange between an origin and a destination zone is equal to the total trips emanating
from the origin zone multiplied by the probability that each trip will find an acceptable terminal at the
destination
• Probability that a destination will be acceptable is determined by 2 zonal characteristics
• Size of the destination
• Order in which the particular destination is encountered as trips proceed from origin
Probability of a trip terminating
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑂𝑖 𝑃 𝐷𝑗 in zone j

𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑂𝑖 𝑒 −𝐿𝐵 − 𝑒 −𝐿𝐴

𝐿- Probability density, A- no.of destination opportunities between i and j (including j) when arranged in order of closeness, B –
no.of destination opportunities between i and j (excluding j) when arranged in order of closeness

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Problem
Zone Productions Attractions 1 2 3 4
L = 0.00055
1 825 710 1 5 16 13 18
2 775 800 2 16 7 20 12
3 910 970 3 13 20 2 9
4 865 895 4 18 12 9 3

Order 1 3 2 4
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑂𝑖 𝑒 −𝐿𝐵 − 𝑒 −𝐿𝐴 A 710 710+970 710+970+800 710+970+800+895

𝑇11 = 825 𝑒 −0.00055 ∗0 − 𝑒 −0.00055 ∗710 Order 2 4 1 3

A 800 800+895 800+895+710 800+895+710+970
−0.00055 ∗(710+970) −0.00055 ∗(710+970+800)
𝑇12 = 825 𝑒 −𝑒
Order 3 4 1 2
𝑇21 = 775 𝑒 −0.00055 ∗(800+895) − 𝑒 −0.00055 ∗(800+895+710) A 970 970+895 970+895+710 970+895+710+800

Order 4 3 2 1

A 895 895+970 895+970+800 895+970+800+710

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Tanners Model
• Suggested by Tanner
• The inverse of nth power 𝑑1𝑛 in the gravity model formula cannot give valid estimates at both
𝑖𝑗
small and large distances.
𝑒 −𝜆𝑑
• Proposed the function , 𝜆 and n are constants
𝑑𝑛
𝑚𝑃𝑖 𝑃𝑗 𝑒 −𝜆𝑑 1 1
𝑡𝑖𝑗 = +
𝑑𝑖𝑗 𝐶𝑖 𝐶𝑗

• 𝑃𝑖 population, 𝑚 constant, 𝐶𝑖 constant associated with zone i

• 𝐶𝑖 = σ 𝑃𝑗 𝑒 −𝑑𝑖𝑗

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Competing Opportunity Model
• Probability of a trip ending in zone is the product of two independent probabilities
• Probability of a trip being attracted to a zone and the probability of a trip finding a
destination in that zone
𝐴𝑖
σ𝑗 𝐴𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑂𝑖
𝐴
σ 𝑖
σ𝑗 𝐴𝑗

𝐴𝑗 - number of destination opportunities in zone-j

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