India-Bangladesh Relations:

Convergences, Divergences &

Way Ahead
Subscribe to Never Miss an Important Update! Assured
Discounts on New Products!

Political Instability in Bangladesh

Context (IE): PM Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and flight to India
amid protests mark a pivotal shift in South Asian geopolitics,
raising concerns about Bangladesh‘s stability and its
relationship with India.

Recent Bangladesh Elections

Context (IE l IE l LM): Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina

won the re-election for a fifth term.

The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),

boycotted the polls.
Western nations, including the US, UK, and EU, have urged
Bangladesh to hold free, fair, and participatory elections.
The BNP demanded elections under a caretaker government,
which the government rejected.
This election became a high-stakes arena because of several
international interests–
1. India’s buffer state priorities
2. China’s Belt & Road vision
3. Strategic interests of the United States
4. Russian infrastructure interests.
:
 Catalyst for PM’s Resignation

Nationwide Uproar: Student protests over job quotas, fueled

by governmental repression and violence from the Awami
League’s student wing, ignited widespread unrest.
Democratic Deficit: Allegations of electoral violence and
rigging diminished democratic credibility and contributed to
public dissatisfaction.
Economic Challenges: Falling forex reserves, currency
depreciation, and mounting external debt have created a
looming debt crisis.
Chinese Loans: Much of the infrastructure development
relies on high-interest loans from China.
Authoritarian Measures: Increasing use of stringent laws, such
as the Digital Security Act, to suppress dissent led to a more
authoritarian governance style.
Economic Disparities: Corruption, high-profile financial
scandals, and growing inequality.
Authoritarian Practices: The Awami League’s (AL)
authoritarian measures, including arrests and harassment of
opposition leaders, have fueled resentment among the
masses.
Corruption and Nepotism: Perceived corruption and nepotism
within the AL have widened the gap between the government
and the impoverished population.
Islamist Influence: The AL encouragement of Islamist
groups like Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh has created a toxic
environment within the ruling party.
Radicalization: Islamist organisations, through religious schools
and mosques, have radicalised a significant portion of the
population, especially the youth.
Islamist Opposition: The Islamist parties, including Jamaat-e-
:
 Islami, Hefazat, and Islami Oikyo Jote, now fill the opposition
space.
Political Analyst’s Perspective: Political analysts argue that
the AL’s crackdown on the BNP has inadvertently strengthened
Islamist parties, which seek to implement strict Sharia laws
and turn Bangladesh into an Islamic state.

Bangladesh’s Strategic Importance for India

Geostrategic Value: Bangladesh’s location provides critical
access to the Bay of Bengal and serves as an essential trade
route to Southeast Asia.
Regional Stability: Crucial for maintaining regional security and
peace in South Asia.
Economic Interdependence: Eg., Export of Indian
pharmaceuticals & import of Bangladesh textiles.

Cultural Connections: Shared heritage and cultural links,

reinforced by festivals like Durga Puja and exchanges in music,
literature, and film, strengthen interpersonal bonds and foster
mutual respect
Regional Cooperation: Collaborative efforts in regional forums
such as BIMSTEC and SAARC are vital for mutual development.

India-Bangladesh Relations
:
 Economic relation

In 2022-23, Bangladesh was the fifth largest export

destination for Indian goods after the US, the UAE, the
:
 Netherlands, and China. It accounted for over 2.7 per cent of all
Indian exports, worth $12.2 billion.
Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and
India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh in
Asia.
India is Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia, with
approximately $2 billion of Bangladeshi exports to India in FY
2022-23.
In 2022, both nations concluded a joint feasibility study on a
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

Security relations

A stable, prosperous and friendly Bangladesh is in India’s best

interests.
The previous BNP-led government was quite hostile to India —
and provided a haven to numerous anti-India terrorist and
militant groups.
It allegedly also had links to Pakistan’s ISI.
The Present Government’s crackdown on anti-India elements
and counter-terrorism cooperation with India has single-
handedly improved India’s overall security situation over the last
decade.
Bangladesh’s action resulted in the arrest of many top leaders
of the NE insurgent groups like the ULFA and the National
Democratic Front of Bodoland.
Also, Given the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, it becomes
even more important that India and Bangladesh remain close
security partners.

Regional Connectivity & Cooperation

Protocol on Inland Water Trade and Transit (PIWTT),

:
 operational since 1972, permits the movement of goods over
vessels from India through Bangladesh’s river systems on 8
specific routes.
Under the present regime, Bangladesh facilitates efficient
connectivity to India’s Northeast through overland transit and
inland waterways.
Securing sea lines of communication: Bangladesh
strategically places nearby essential sea lanes. It can play a
significant role in containing piracy in the Indian Ocean.
Bangladesh is also crucial for economic integration within the
subcontinent, especially since Pakistan refuses to support
regional economic cooperation.
Bridge to Southeast Asia: Bangladesh is a natural pillar of the
Act East policy.
It can act as a ‘bridge’ to economic and political linkages
with South East Asia and beyond.
Bangladesh is an essential component of BIMSTEC and
BBIN initiatives.
Dhaka hosts the secretariat of The Bay of Bengal Initiative
for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
(BIMSTEC), which connects Myanmar and Thailand.
Beyond the subcontinent, India wants Bangladesh to become a
fulcrum for regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal littoral
linking South and South East Asia.
India’s friends, such as Japan, have invested heavily in
Bangladesh.

Indo-Bangladesh Protocol (IBP) Route

India and Bangladesh initiated the first trial movement of vessels

between Maia Port in India and Sultanganj Port in Bangladesh in
February 2024.
:
 It is set to take place on Indo Bangladesh Protocol (IBP) Route no.
5 & 6.
The waterway route from Maia (IBP route) to Dhubri (NW-2) via
Aricha will reduce the distance by around 930 kilometers compared
to the existing waterway route.
This development is in line with the Act East Policy.

About IBP Route

IBP protocol was signed for the first time between India and
Bangladesh in 1972. Under this, inland vessel of one country can
transit through the specified routes of the other country.
50:50 cargo sharing by Indian and Bangladeshi vessels is
permitted both for transit and inter-country trade.
This protocol route includes the river routes of Ganga,
Brahmaputra, and their tributaries across the two countries.
:
 It connects the National Waterway (1, 2, 16 & 97).
This route enables easier access to the markets in the Northeast.
The Inland Waterways connectivity through the IBP route also holds
significance for Bhutan.
As per the transit agreement between India and Bhutan, Dhubri on
NW-2 is declared as an agreed exit/ entry point in India for Bhutan’s
EXIM cargo movement.
Number of Port of call increased to 11 with 2 extended Ports of calls
in both countries.

Strategic relations

Participation in multilateral forums such as:

1. SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation),
2. BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Technical and
Economic Cooperation),
3. Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).
Defence and Security:
Joint Exercises: Army (Exercise Sampriti) and Navy
(Exercise Bongo Sagar).
Counterterrorism and Counter-Radicalisation initiatives
:
 Other Services:
E-Medical Visa Facility: India introduced e-medical visas for
Bangladesh citizens.
350 training slots for Bangladeshi police officers and the
Muktijoddha Scheme for medical patients.

India-Bangladesh Relations Under Sheikh Hasina

Trade Growth: Bilateral trade reached $13 billion in FY 2023–24,

with Bangladesh becoming India’s largest trade partner in South
Asia.
Land Boundary Agreement (2015): Resolving long-standing
border disputes marked a significant achievement in bilateral
relations.
Key connectivity projects: Successful implementation of cross-
border rail links and port agreements. For example, India uses the
Agartala-Akhaura rail link and the Chattogram and Mongla
ports.
Defence and Medical Collaboration: Joint military exercises, such
as the annual “Exercise Sampriti,” and the growth of medical
tourism, where Bangladeshi citizens seek medical treatment in India.
Enhanced Security Collaboration: Hasina’s government helped
dismantle anti-India militant groups, improving regional security.
Energy Partnerships: Bangladesh imported substantial electricity
from India, and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline
facilitated fuel transport.

Challenges Ahead for India

Political Uncertainty: A less friendly administration could
reinvigorate anti-India militant groups, exacerbating border
security tensions.
Geopolitical Dynamics: Instability in Bangladesh could enable
China to expand its influence, necessitating India’s vigilance as
Beijing might offer lucrative deals to any new regime, similar to
its actions in Sri Lanka.
:
 Economic Implications:
Disruptions in trade and payment delays impact the
profitability and stability of these investments.
Indian-owned textile manufacturing units in Bangladesh,
which constitute around 25% of the sector, may shift
operations back to India due to instability.
It raises doubts about the future of the potential free trade
agreement (FTA).
Infrastructure and Connectivity Risks:
India has provided USD 8 billion in credit since 2016 for
road, rail, and port projects, including the Akhaura-
Agartala rail link and the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line.
Current unrest threatens to disrupt trade and access to
India’s Northeast region.

Teesta Water Sharing Agreement

About Teesta River

The Teesta River originates from the Pahunri (or Teesta Kangse)
glacier in the Eastern Himalayas in the state of Sikkim, India.
It flows southward through the Indian states of Sikkim and West
Bengal, eventually entering Bangladesh.
In Bangladesh, it merges with the Brahmaputra River (known
locally as the Jamuna River).
Major tributaries: Rangpo River, the Rangit River, and the Great
Rangit River.

Key Events and Agreements

1983 Agreement:
An ad-hoc agreement on the sharing of Teesta waters was
reached in 1983, with Bangladesh allocated 36% and India
39% of the water flow, leaving 25% to be decided later.
However, this agreement was never fully implemented.

1996 Ganges Water Treaty:

:
 Although this treaty primarily addressed the Ganges River, it
set a precedent for bilateral cooperation on water-sharing
between India and Bangladesh.
Attempts at a Comprehensive Agreement:
In 2011, an attempt was made to resolve the dispute when
Indian PM visited Bangladesh.
Proposed agreement aimed at allocating 37.5% of Teesta’s
waters to Bangladesh and 42.5% to India.
However, West Bengal govt opposed it arguing that it would
harm its agricultural interests.

Way Forward
Fostering New Alliances:
Maintain a cautious “wait-and-watch” strategy to assess
developments and their potential impacts on regional
stability.
Engage with various political factions in Bangladesh to
foster a more inclusive relationship.
Engage with a broader spectrum of Bangladeshi society to
counteract negative perceptions of India and move beyond
the 1971 liberation narrative.
Strengthening Security Measures: Bolster security measures
along the border to address potential spillover effects and
maintain stability.
Advancing Digital Connectivity: Develop a digital connectivity
corridor to enhance trade, technological exchange, and e-
commerce.

Strategic Geopolitical Maneuvering:

Collaborate with international partners, including the US,

UK, and European nations, to mitigate the risks of possible
Chinese and Pakistan influence.
:
 Work with Gulf partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to
support Bangladesh’s economic stabilization and counter
extremist influences, maintaining regional stability.
Support for Democratic Processes: India should advocate for
democratic principles and reforms in Bangladesh while avoiding
direct political interference.
Address Critical Issues: Focus on resolving ongoing disputes,
such as water sharing and the Rohingya refugee crisis, and
manage cross-border challenges effectively.

Bangladesh-China Relations
Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in
2022.
Bangladesh aligns strategically with China, helping transform its
landscape through mega projects.
Chinese investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects have
surpassed $10 billion.
Bangladesh has significant military relations with China, and it is
the second-largest importer of Chinese arms.
India, too, gave Bangladesh $500 million credit for defence
imports.
Bangladesh has granted port access to India and China, fostering
modernisation in Mongla port under the banners of the BRI and
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM).
Pyra Port– A similar cooperative enhancement was
undertaken, but India backed out due to the PPP being granted
to a Chinese company.
There are around $450 million of Chinese investments into 1,845
MW of domestic power generation as of 2021.

Bangladesh-USA Relations
Bangladesh has had tense relationships with the US and the UK,
given their proximity to Pakistan and their damaging role in 1971.
The present regime unsurprisingly views the US with tremendous
distrust.
The US has been relatively inconsistent regarding calling out
:
 authoritarianism. While the Americans seldom talk about democracy
in Pakistan, they tend to bully Bangladesh.
The US has begun to appreciate India’s interests in Bangladesh
(After the G20 Summit) and is toning down its hostility toward
Dhaka.
: