VQ-Deep-Dive-Decrypting-the-DNA-of-CRDMOs
VQ-Deep-Dive-Decrypting-the-DNA-of-CRDMOs
DNA of CRDMOs
VQ Deep Dive
January 2025
Authored by:
Sameer Shah • Darshan Engineer • Dhara Ganatra
Executive Summary
India's pharmaceutical industry has long been a global powerhouse in generic formulations,
meeting an impressive 25–40% of the generic drug requirements in regulated markets like
the US and UK. However, the story of Indian pharma is evolving, with a growing opportunity to
establish itself as a key player in Pharma R&D outsourcing through the burgeoning Contract
Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) industry.
The journey ahead is ambitious, but with the right mix of focus, investment, and strategic
intent, the Indian CRDMO industry is set to play a transformative role in shaping the future of
global pharma.
Therefore, the entire process, from the discovery stage to commercialization, is time-
consuming and takes several years due to the vast amount of data that needs to be collected
and analyzed before moving to the next stage. On average, the process typically takes more
than 10 years.
Moreover, the success rate is low when progressing from one stage to the next, as compounds
can affect the human body in ways that are difficult to predict at the laboratory stage.
Screening One
from 10,000+ ~250 compounds ~5 compounds
Marketed
compounds Drug
NDA
IND
The process is also costly, as each stage requires several hundred million dollars to
complete. On average, it costs USD 1.5–3 billion over the entire duration of 9–12 years.
Furthermore, the success rate for developing a new drug from discovery to approval is
extremely low at less than 0.01%. Only a small fraction of experimental drugs, ranging from
one in 10,000 to 15,000, successfully progress from preclinical trials to regulatory approval
and commercialization.
Mature
Advancing
Emerging Expanding to cover different
Technology advancing to cover mechanisms of action and
Proof of concept to demonstrate different treatment areas and improve convenience
value for initial clinical applications address wider clinical profiles
Small
PROTACs CAR-T molecule
Microbiome
yδT TILs Biospecific ADC
therapies Recombinant
Oncolytic virus antibodies
mRNA protein Monoclonal
Gene RNAi and
TCR-T (therapeutics therapy antibodies
CAR-M And vaccines) Stem Cell oligos
mRNA
therapy
(prophylactic vaccine)
CAR-NK Gene editing
Stem
Other emerging Oncolytic Biospecific mRNA Gene RNAi/ Recombinant Small
cell CAR-T ADC mAb
modalities virus antibodies vaccine therapy oligos protein molecule
therapy
Global pipeline
300+ 252 333 76 713 537 682 577 3,300+ 14,000+
(early-stage xx
(99%) (92%) (92%) (97%) (94%) (92%) (96%) (85%) (82%) (81%)
activities)
According to a recent Frost & Sullivan report on CRDMO industry, the biologics market (at
35% of total pharmaceutical market by revenue in 2023) is forecasted to reach USD 752.1
billion by 2028, from USD 480.0 billion in 2023, at a CAGR of 9.4%, faster than overall
pharmaceutical market. This change will be driven by increasing adoption of innovations
such as immunotherapies, antibody-drug conjugates, and gene and cell therapies.
In Terms of Therapies
4 major therapies dominate the R&D efforts of the pharma ecosystem – Oncology (cancer),
Neurology (central nervous system related ailments), Endocrinology and Metabolism
(Diabetes, Obesity, etc.), and Immunology (Immune system). Around 80% of the total
clinical trials happening in the space are related to drugs which attempt to solve for unmet
needs in these therapies. Oncology related R&D has seen strong growth in last 10 years, with
an increasing focus on innovative mechanisms of action. Neurology has seen significant
growth in trials (to 500+ over last 5 years) to treat neurodegenerative, neuromuscular, and
psychiatric disorders. The largest share of trials in neurology remains that of Alzheimer’s and
Parkinson’s diseases. Metabolic/endocrinology include diabetes, obesity and NASH have
had a near doubling of number of trial activities around weight loss drugs in last 5 years
(focused majorly on GIP/GLP glucagon receptor agonists).
In Terms of Geographies
Pharma R&D spending is mostly driven by USA and European companies. In absolute
terms, they account for >60% of total R&D spends and clinical trials. Prominent R&D
innovation hubs in USA include Boston, Cambridge, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York,
and Chicago. Other prominent R&D hubs across the world include Manchester, London,
Cambridge, etc. in UK, Paris in France, top cities in Japan and Switzerland. Interestingly, post
reforms, China is also emerging as an innovation hub in recent years.
Chart 3: Number of Phase I to III trial starts based on company headquarters location, 2008-2023
Chart 4: Number of New Active Substances by company type 2014-23 & Past and Future CAGR of R&D, Pharma
14%
2017-22 CAGR 2022-27E CAGR
12.1%
11.8%
12%
10%
7.9%
8% 6.8% 7.1% 6.9%
6.4%
6% 4.9%
4%
2%
0%
Global R&D Large Pharma Mid-sized Small pharma/
Spend Pharma biotechs/
Non-EBP Originated EBP Originated virtual pharma
Source: IQVIA Global Trends in R&D 2024 Source: Frost & Sullivan
Several new technologies have emerged in recent years to improve the quality, consistency,
and efficiency of products while reducing the need for labour. Some of the prominent new
technologies used in manufacturing of pharma products include – continuous flow
manufacturing, single use manufacturing, automation, particle engineering, newer
alternative materials, innovations in capsule design and packaging, electroporation /
nucleofector technology, etc.
Source: IQVIA
Source: IQVIA
Most of these innovators are start-ups founded by small scientific teams who have novel
concepts in mind but not the financial resources to carry out the expensive drug
development activities. Thus, they are dependent on external funding to take them from
concept to commercialisation. A lack of budget and funding has been one key reason for
the slowdown in R&D activities in the past. Regulatory hurdles or lack of scientific activities
are not the detractors here. In the past, 3,000+ compounds have been shelved because of
lack of funding.
Angel investors and Venture Capital are most critical to early-stage start-ups whereas PE
and listed M&A investments are mostly directed towards late-stage companies who have
a few molecules in phase 3 trials. This is where the macro interest rate environment plays a
key role. Lower and stable interest rate environment is most conducive to biotech
funding.
Recent quarterly trend reflects the challenges as well as volatility in the funding
environment, driven in part by higher interest rates across the world leading to higher cost of
funding. However, when looked on longer time frames, funding has started to pick-up
again which should augur well for improvement in R&D spend.
Chart 6: Funding has started to pick-up again which should augur well for R&D spend improvement
5000 1
50000 -50.0%
0 0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 0 -100.0%
2014
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
However, more importantly, capital providers are being increasingly choosy about which
projects they fund.
The ones who have a clear inexpensive path to the next milestone (those in late-stage Phase
2 and 3 trials, with good clinical data and outcomes from previous rounds, having high-
conviction molecules) are able to raise oversized capital rounds.
This is leading to fewer but larger deals in the space. Even then, deployment is slower than
before. Innovators are quick to forego further stages if data or outcomes do not show the
requisite positive signals. This has lead to higher drop-out rates and moderation in clinical
trial starts. This is most evident in the M&A environment where large pharma companies are
acquiring promising innovator companies having a few molecules with good P2/P3 clinical
trial outcomes for billions of dollars (with most of them in areas of Oncology and Neurology).
Chart 7: R&D composite success rate and average phase success rates Phase I to filing, 2010–2023
87% 88% 88% 94% 92% 87% 92% 90% 90% 87%
85%
81%
74% 81% 76% 2019-2023 regulatory
70% 70% 71%
65% 64% 66% 66% submission
62%
57% 63% 58% 55% Phase III - avg 56%
58% 61% 54%
57% 56% 57% 49% 48%
54% 52% 52% 53% 48% 46% Phase II - avg - 36%
38% 38% 41% 45% 40%
37% 37% 37% 39% 35%
29% 24.5% 33% 34% 39%
39% Phase I - avg 45%
10.5% 12.2% 12.0%
15.0% 13.5% 16.1% 11.5% 10.8%
7.5% 8.8% 6.4% 6.0% 5.9%
Composite success -
avg 7.6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: IQVIA
The cost of developing a new drug has doubled every 9 years since 1950. The average cost
to develop and commercialize a new drug today (R&D to marketplace) is nearly USD 3-4
billion, a 10x increase since 1970s. Money spent developing just one successful drug
today is equivalent to the cost of developing 90 drugs in 1950s, even after adjusting for
inflation. Timelines from drug discovery to commercialization have more than doubled from
an average of 6 years in the 1970s to 13-14 years in the 2010s.
The last 2-3 years saw a modest reduction in R&D cycle times and a decline in average cost
of developing a drug as industry adopted some novel trial designs and made improvements
in efficiency through digitization of drug discovery and development. Overall, returns on R&D
investment have been on a decline for innovators.
1.0
US$ 400-450mn 58%
US$ 150-200mn 43%
0.5 33%
39% 42%
61% 67%
0.0
70s - early 80s 80s - early 90s 90s - mid 00s 00s - early 20s
Apart from the extended timelines and complexity, the cost of manufacturing and complying
with regulations has also risen in innovation hubs and nearby regions. The cost of scientists
and production workers in these geographies has become increasingly prohibitive.
Manufacture Provide
Assist with early- Produce Support new
preclinical trial Manufacture Provide packaging Scale-up for
stage synthesis clinical trial formulations or
material (small APIs at various formulation (primary & Iarge volume
and biologics materials delivery
quantities: APIs/ scales development secondary) and production
screening. (APIs/formulations) methods
biologics) serialization
CRDMO
Roles
Provide Support Manufacture Handle global Offer lifecycle Continue
Offer
specialized process finished drug logistics and management manufacturing
specialized tech
platforms for development (e.g., continuous
products (oral, cold chain support (e.g., of mature
manufacturing) solids, injectables, biosimilars, new
discovery and scale-up biologics)
management formulations)
products
As is evident from the above pictures, CRDMO help innovators at various stages of the value
chain in a variety of ways.
1. Converts a portion of their R&D budgets from an upfront fixed cost to a variable cost
Outsourcing reduces R&D intensity for innovators and allows them to operate more
efficiently, thereby reducing the financial burden for innovators. With outsourcing, innovators
can invest their limited capital into core R&D while outsourcing capital intensive non-core
ancillary and supplementary work to CRDMOs. Thus, a share of their R&D budget (upfront
fixed asset investments and non-core operations) is reduced considerably and converted to
a variable cost. This gives them the flexibility to shift strategic and development priorities in
response to market conditions.
160
139 140
140 129
120
97 98
100 89
81
80 66
60
40
20
0
Phase I Phase II Phase III NDA
In-House CROs
Source: Jefferies
Chart 10: Annual salary of an average mid level scientist in country (in US$)
70,000
66,000 65,000
45,000
40,000
25,000
In recent years, large CRDMO companies have become even more advanced than the
innovators themselves in areas of advanced manufacturing technologies. Today, they own
specialized and technically complex equipment and expertise in certain areas of drug
development and manufacturing to produce stable drug formulations that are appropriately
filled and packaged.
Hence, there has been a shift in the perception of CRDMOs from just a service provider to
that of a development partner. Revenue models are also evolving from ‘time and material’
based to ‘milestone and revenue/profit share’ based.
Chart 11: Outsourcing trends across key areas in Pharma R&D (% of projects outsourced)
50%
45%
43%
42% 42%
36% 36%
35%
30%
28% 28% 28%
25%
20%
17%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Global Pharma Sales US$ bn 1136 1451 1956 5.0% 6.2% 5.6%
R&D Spend US$ bn 214 277 325 5.3% 3.2% 4.3%
As % of Global Sales % 19% 19% 17%
Global CRDMO US$ bn 127 197 302 9.2% 8.9% 9.0%
As % of Global Sales % 11% 14% 15%
Small Molecules US$ bn 85 113 159 5.9% 7.1% 6.5%
As % of Global CRDMO % 67% 57% 53%
Biologics and Large Molecules US$ bn 41 83 143 15.1% 11.5% 13.3%
As % of Global CRDMO % 32% 42% 47%
Drug discovery will grow faster within CRO while emerging modalities in Biologics will drive
the growth in CDMO.
Chart 13: Global CRO TAM stood at ~US$78bn in 2022, with Chart 14: Global CDMO TAM stood at ~US$124bn, with
Clinical CRO the largest segment small molecules dominating the majority state
250
140
124 212
113
120 190
103 200 22
169
94 21
100 85 146 47
78 20
150 132 41
71 82
USD $bn
80
USD $bn
115 17
76 35
59 61 17
70 100
54 91 30
60 50 65 82 16 26
60 100 77
55 71 15 21
50 14
13 18 143
40 41 42 12
12 16 128
38 12 13
35 19 10 114
17 50 89 99
16 78
20 14 67
12 13 56 61
9 10 11 49 53
8 8 20 23
12 15 17
7 8 9 9 10 11
0 0
2023
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2026
2027
2026
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2027
Source: Frost and Sullivan, Compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Source: Statista, PWC Compiled by Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research Investment Research
20%
10.8%
9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.7%
8% 15%
8.7% 8.4% 16.4% 16.9%
14.2%
12.8%
10%
11.1%
4% 10.0%
5% 6.6%
6.2%
0% 0%
Drug Discovery Pre-Clinical Clinical CRO Total Small Molecules Peptides, Oligo… Large Molecules Packaging CDMO Total
Source: Company data, Compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Source: Company data, Compiled by Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research Investment Research
China’s playbook for most industries has been to imitate advanced economies in terms of
industrialisation and become better than them in terms of costs and quality over time
through economies of scale and resultant efficiencies. However, in the case of Pharma, the
Chinese government realised that it needed to incentivize innovation to truly move up the
value chain. It named biotech as a strategic emerging industry in early 2010s.
China’s National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC), its largest public science funding
organization and a major funding source for basic research and frontier exploration
increased its research funding to encourage exploration and innovation, awarding 51,600
grants for a total of USD 4.5 billion in 2023. China’s share of global biotechnology VC raised
grew from a mere 3.5% in 2010 to 19% in 2023. Biotechnology VC raised by China – as
determined by the VC financing raised by Chinese-headquartered firms – has surged.
Because of these initiatives, China’s share in global pharma R&D has risen to significantly
higher levels. Chinese New Active Substance (NAS) launches have increased significantly
with 30+ launches for a 6th consecutive year, making the 5-year total 2nd after United States
in global launches and surpassing European countries. Chinese institutions are also
producing an increasing number of top-cited publications.
Chinese innovators entered into a number of out-licensing deals with EU and USA innovators
and large pharma companies in the past 5 years.
Because of these initiatives, revenues and profits of Chinese CRDMO companies have also
grown multi-fold over the past 10 years.
Chart 19: China listed CRDMO Revenue (US$ mn) Chart 20: China listed CRDMO Earnings (US$ mn)
Source: ValueQuest Internal Research, Bloomberg Source: ValueQuest Internal Research, Bloomberg
AppTec Laboratory Biologics manufacturing and Expanding U.S. footprint and Philadelphia, USA; U.S. – based
2008
Services services biologics expertise operations
XenoBiotic
2014 Preclinical research services
Laboratories
Drug delivery and protein Supporting structure-based drug Munich, Germany; Europe –
Apr - 16 CRELUX Gmbh
crystallography services discovery efforts focussed operations
Small molecule
Strengthening drug manufacturing Couvet, Switzerland; U.S., Europe
Jul-17 STA Pharmaceutical development and
capabilities with Couvet facility and China
manufacturing
Preclinical drug discovery Boosting preclinical discovery Shanghai, China; Focus on Asia
Jan-17 HD Biosciences
and biology services capabilities and global clients
ResearchPoint Contract research Enhancing global clinical trial Austin, Texas, USA; Worldwide
Oct-17
Global organization (CRO) capabilities CRO services
Biostatistics and clinical trial Expanding clinical trial services for San Diego, USA; U.S. and global
May - 19 Pharmapace, Inc.
consulting pharma and biotech clients clinical trials
WuXi AppTec initially founded WuXi Biologics as a biologics-focused division. In 2017, WuXi
Biologics was spun off and went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) as an
independent entity. Since the spin-off, it operates independently. However, both companies
maintain complementary businesses and share the brand.
2020 Bayer’s Wuppertal Plant (Germany) Entry into European biologics manufacturing.
2021 Facilities in Singapore and Ireland Global diversification of biologics manufacturing sites.
Together, the WuXi group has a robust pipeline, with approximately 16% share in global
clinical-stage drugs, a strong presence across all emerging modalities in small molecules
and biologics, and end-to-end testing platforms. It caters to most leading global
pharmaceutical companies in the USA and Europe. These initiatives have helped WuXi grow
its asset base, revenue, profits, and cash flows multi-fold over CY2018–23, while maintaining
a prudent net-cash balance sheet.
Thus, China has become critical to the global pharmaceutical ecosystem. A strong
chemical supply chain, based on large integrated facilities, advanced research and
development capabilities, cheaper and skilled labor, a large pool of scientific talent, lower
operating costs (power, logistics) compared to developed markets, and strong government
support and funding, have combined to make China the largest supplier of pharmaceutical
chemicals and biologics to the world. The USA's imports of Chinese pharmaceutical and
related products grew from USD 2.1 billion in 2020 to USD 10.3 billion in 2023 (a 485%
increase). Chinese CRDMO companies are now involved in approximately 50% of drugs in
clinical-stage development and around 33% in early-stage discovery and preclinical trials.
Chinese CRDMO companies also support 66% of the drugs being developed by public
companies in the USA, of which 60% have either been already marketed or are in late clinical
stages.
WuXi group is the dominant player with its Biologics division being one of the largest
manufacturing companies in the world, with numerous manufacturing partnerships.
WuXi AppTec is among the largest research service providers globally and is widely used by
cell and gene therapy (CGT) companies worldwide. Together, they manufacture 19 biosimilar
and innovator drugs approved in the US, including several blockbuster drugs like Revlimid,
Vertex’s Trikafta/Kaftrio, BeiGene’s Brukinsa, and Tirzepatide (the API in Eli Lilly’s blockbuster
weight-loss drug Zepbound). US companies accounted for 46% and 66% of WuXi Biologics’
and WuXi AppTec’s revenue, respectively, in 2023.
Source: GlobalData’s Pharma Intelligence Center Drugs by Manufacturer Database
In general, under successive USA presidents starting from Mr. Donald Trump in 2016, China
is increasingly being seen as a strategic threat to USA in various industries, leading to a rise
in geopolitical tensions. As a result, the US government, through its agencies and
government arms, has initiated a series of steps, such as the Unverified List (UVL) and the
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), to reduce dependence on China for various products and
services. Companies falling on such lists face higher tariffs or a partial/complete ban on their
products and services. Covid-19 led to a significant supply chain disruption in various areas
and further drove the need to diversify away from China.
The bill aims to ban key Chinese companies involved in pharma R&D and hinder their
emergence as strong global biotech players amid China’s dubious national security laws.
Indirectly, it seeks to incentivize pharma innovators to reduce dependence on China by
diversifying their supply chains to other friendly geographies, avoiding the transfer of
technology, and boosting local manufacturing. It prohibits U.S. federal agencies or
companies that receive federal funds from contracting with or procuring services and
equipment from “companies of concern” (defined as those headquartered in or subject to
the jurisdiction of a foreign adversary’s government and posing a threat to national security).
Anyone collaborating with these companies is disqualified from receiving grants, loans, or
contracts from executive agencies.
Once enacted, companies stated in the bill could face restrictions within 6 to 18 months
after the bill’s conversion into an Act.
In the last 11 months, the bill progressively passed through several committees with
overwhelming majorities. However, it also underwent several amendments that diluted and
delayed its passage, largely due to strong lobbying by the pharma industry and the
impending presidential elections in November 2024. The bill was reviewed in the Senate
(Upper Chamber) and had a chance to pass easily if it had been included in the National
Defense Authorization Act (NDAA 2025), an annual defense bill. However, the bill was not
included as part of the 93 newly filed amendments, leaving its passage in the previous
Congress highly unlikely.
That said, considering that the U.S. government is now controlled by Republicans in both
branches of the legislature (the House and the Senate), along with the executive branch
under President Trump (a Republican with strong anti-China leanings), the chances of the bill
being passed in 2025 have risen significantly in some form or another.
As it stands today, the bill softens the blow on pharma innovators reliant on China by
allowing sufficient time—until 2032—to bring their exposure to the five Chinese companies
down to zero. It also includes waivers and exceptions in cases of medical exigencies (e.g., a
repeat of Covid). Since the likelihood of the bill passing remains slim, it will likely need to go
through the normal legislative process again.
In any case, due to geopolitical tensions, the need to reduce reliance on China, and potential
supply chain disruptions, innovators remain hesitant to rely solely on the Chinese CRDMO
industry, even if the bill is shelved.
Rival CRDMO companies located in Japan, Europe, Korea, America, India, etc. expect no
immediate benefits from this bill but do see increased inquiries and RFQs.
Surveys conducted by BIO and other prominent independent pharma research organizations,
such as CPHI, as well as leading global sell-side financial research houses like Jefferies and
Goldman Sachs, have all indicated that global innovators are willing to reduce their
dependency on Chinese CRDMOs by switching to alternative large global CRDMO
companies with capabilities in different areas. The majority believe that the time frame
provided in the bill is sufficient for a smooth transition. Additionally, it would be easier and
faster to move CRO work compared to CDMO work.
35%
Share of Respondents (%) Rank 1
30%
25%
20%
15%
12% 12%
10% 8% 8% 8%
4% 4% 4% 4%
5%
0%
Lonza Patheon Samsung Fujifilm Boehringer Recipham Merck KG aA Miltenyi Catalent Other
Biologics Diosynth Ingelheim Biotech
Source: Jefferies
Companies like Lonza AG, Samsung Biologics, and Fujifilm Diosynth have capacities and
capabilities similar to those of WuXi. Hence, the initial benefit is most likely to accrue to
them. However, over time, the benefits should percolate and spread to the wider CRDMO
ecosystem based in lower-cost countries like India.
The switching cost for an innovator is high, as it must go through the entire regulatory
process of validating a new partner. Consequently, savings of 10–15% usually do not justify a
switch to a competitor.
As a result, it is not easy for a new player to establish operations in this industry. The sector
remains highly fragmented, consisting of thousands of small, limited-service providers,
hundreds of medium-sized, moderately integrated providers, and a small number of fully
integrated large CROs with global operations and deep capabilities.
Thereafter, multiple avenues for growth become visible for a CRDMO company. Clients
become more confident in its ability to provide services and often ask it to expand along
multiple dimensions – more services in the same phase, entering other phases of R&D value
chain, different drug types, different dosage forms, geographies, etc.
Large Molecule
Large global beneficiaries such as Lonza, Samsung Biologics, and others are expected to
benefit initially, as they possess advanced technological capabilities. Large molecule and
biologics innovators prefer U.S., European, and Korean CDMOs (China+1) for their capacity
and expertise. Meanwhile, small molecule innovators aim to diversify away from China while
also reducing production costs (China+1, Europe/USA+1).
Source: Avendus
India supplies 25-60% of generic drugs and vaccines to the world. It has 3000+ drug
companies and 10,500+ manufacturing units spread across key pharma hubs. India's
unparalleled expertise in process chemistry has enabled the production of high-quality,
reverse-engineered generic products at some of the lowest costs globally.
CRO
Global CRDMO
$197 bn $2.8 bn
India
CRDMO Discovery
$7 bn $0.5 bn
3.6%
The Indian CRDMO industry’s capabilities and capacities have primarily been developed
through bottom-up efforts and opportunistic plays by promoters and management teams of
certain companies. Select Indian CRO and CDMO players have expanded their product
offerings through both organic and inorganic routes.
India remains dependent on China for sourcing Key Starting Materials (KSMs) and
intermediates. Chinese CDMO companies operate at a much larger scale, giving them the
advantage of negotiating higher discounts in exchange for larger offtake requirements. In
many cases, KSMs are supplied by Chinese producers, further reducing lead times, logistics
costs, and working capital needs across the supply chain. Additionally, government funding
and incentives, such as tax breaks and large integrated common infrastructure facilities,
lower operational costs for Chinese players in areas like environmental compliance and
power.
As a result, the Indian CDMO and CMO industries are structurally disadvantaged compared
to the Chinese CDMO industry, which operates at a significantly larger scale, valued at
approximately USD 30 billion. Consequently, India’s CDMO market share remains low, at just
2-3% of the global CDMO market. However, India is more competitive in the manpower-
intensive, early-stage CRO industry, where dependence on China is minimal.
Biologics and large molecules USD bn 0.2 0.6 1.3 24.6% 16.7% 21.2%
Global pharma companies had already begun diversification efforts due to supply chain
disruptions originating from China. Environmental crackdowns in China between 2013 and
2017 prompted many smaller API/pharma companies to wind down operations. This led to a
rise in API prices in China, forcing manufacturers to explore China+1 options for API
sourcing. The COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated this trend. During the January-March
2020 period, China’s API supplies were severely impacted by pandemic-related disruptions,
creating opportunities for Indian API companies to step in and meet the demand.
Additionally, widespread shortages of drugs and medicines led to stockpiling of both APIs
and formulations, further benefiting Indian players.
The BioSecure Bill is expected to expedite the shift of API manufacturing away from China.
Moreover, regulations like the Inflation Reduction Act are pressuring pharma companies to
reduce the prices of both innovator and off-patent drugs. High operational costs in the USA,
Europe, and Japan add to the challenges. Meanwhile, the increased focus of large Western
and Chinese CRDMO companies is towards higher-value higher-margin Biologics
outsourcing.
Thus, the Indian CRDMO market is largely dominated by CDMO (commercial manufacturing
of both API and FDF). As of now, it is mainly led by generic (off-patent) molecules. The Indian
CDMO industry enjoys a relatively higher share of ~ 6% of the global small molecule CDMO
industry, because of its strong track record and developed capabilities in chemistry and
process engineering of small molecules.
For India to establish itself as a significant player in the global CRDMO market, it must
emulate China's approach in key areas such as scaling up capacities, enhancing quality and
compliance standards, securing adequate funding, fostering government support, and
driving extensive collaboration between academia and industry. India has made strides in
many of these areas in recent years, signaling a positive trajectory for the industry's growth.
As we have seen previously, upfront capex drags asset turns and return ratios in initial
periods. Industry’s Gross Asset Turns and ROCE have declined during this time period.
2,000 15%
30%
1,500 10%
20%
1,000 5%
500 0% 10%
0 -5%
0%
2020
2014
2010
2017
2012
2015
2018
2019
2013
2016
2022
2021
2023
2011
Source: Goldman Sachs
A recent survey of global pharma professionals conducted by CPHI, a leading global event
platform for the pharmaceutical industry, highlighted that India has improved its rankings in
small molecule manufacturing, especially in FDF and knowledge of professionals.
CPHI Annual survey – small molecule rankings CPHI Annual Overall Knowledge of
API FDF Growth Average
Survey competitiveness professionals
8.5
USA, 8.1 USA 7.6 9.0 7.4 9.1 7.5 8.1
8.0
Germany, 7.9 Germany 7.8 8.9 6.7 9.1 6.9 7.9
India, 7.5
7.5 India 6.7 7.6 7.3 7.9 7.8 7.5
UK, 7.4
China, 7.1
UK 7.3 8.4 6.7 8.4 6.4 7.4
7.0
Switzerland 7.5 7.8 6.7 8.1 6.7 7.4
6.5 Japan 7.5 7.7 6.6 8.3 6.6 7.3
China 6.6 7.4 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1
6.0
France 6.8 7.7 6.2 7.6 5.9 6.8
5.5 Italy 6.9 7.6 6.3 7.3 6.0 6.8
2019
2021
2023
2017
3. The Indian government is also playing its part by providing incentives and
support in various forms
In last 10-15 years, India has gradually improved its ‘ease of doing business’ ranking by 4 to
reach 10th among the 7 major economies of Asia in the 2023-27 forecast period. It is
expediting regulatory processes to speed up approvals for new projects.
Through initiatives like Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council (BIRAC), Bio
NEST, and Biotech Science Clusters, it is attracting local and global companies to set up
R&D and manufacturing facilities in certain earmarked clusters for pharma companies.
It is incentivizing pharma manufacturing and giving tax incentives through Production Linked
Incentive (PLI) scheme. PLI 1.0 aimed to reduce imports of critical Key Starting Materials
(KSMs), Drug Intermediates (DIs) and APIs in India to spur local formulation and API
manufacturing by giving Rs 20-400 Cr (depending on the product) for bulk drug park
development. Financial incentives worth Rs 6900 Cr (USD 800 mn) were approved for
manufacturers of 41 eligible products covering 53 APIs. PLI 2.0 was introduced to
Finally, under successive governments, India has also strengthened IP protection laws. Post
the 1995 GATT accession and its 2005 compliance with TRIPS regulations, focus has shifted
from process to product patents. MNC pharma companies are now less worried about
patent infringement.
Thus, despite not being the cheapest on small molecule manufacturing, India will see more
outsourcing of small molecule CDMO and should gain share in future.
CAGR CAGR
India’s CRDMO Industry 2018 2023 2028F
2018-23 2023-28F
India Small Molecule CRDMO (includes both API and FDF) USD bn 3.8 6.7 12.8 12% 13.8%
India Small Molecule Innovator API USD bn 1.4 2.3 5.2 10.4% 17.7%
India is relatively weak in Biologics, but things are improving here as well
Spurred by pre-WTO era when India declined to agree to certain treaties, Indian law evolved
to respect only process patents and not product patents. As a result, Indian pharma and
chemical industry became good in chemistry R&D and manufacturing talent also evolved
accordingly. Based on the limited capital and cash flows available with Indian promoters,
their focus was entirely on scaling up their fledgling but attractive domestic and exports
generic API and FDF manufacturing and marketing businesses.
Hence, they had limited capital and management bandwidth to focus their efforts on
Biologics which was anyways a complex, long-gestation difficult-to-scale business. Their
P&L and balance sheets didn’t support the substantial upfront large investments needed in
biological capabilities and capacities. Talent in the areas of biologics was also scarce.
However, things are changing here as well. The Indian CRDMO industry recognizes the high
value high-margin growth potential of Biologics and has taken steps to be present in this
area. Certain Indian CRDMOs like Piramal Pharma, Laurus, Syngene and select private
companies have developed capabilities through organic and inorganic routes. Recently,
Suven Pharma acquired NJ Bio, a US based company with expertise in this area. Laurus Labs
invested substantial capital & brought in external investors for its Biologics wing, Laurus Bio.
Gradual market share gain in the high-value segment of discovery and pre
clinical parts of CRO industry
1. India can gain share in Discovery CRO relatively easier and faster
Post the BioSecure bill, innovators are apprehensive of outsourcing the entire R&D process
to Chinese firms, especially for early stage phases. Consequently, nearshoring has gathered
pace as latter steps of the discovery stage are being completed in home countries. But USA
and EU face a shortage of capacities and talent (which is only getting costlier). Thus, there is
a need for a reliable alternate supplier in this part of the industry as well.
CRO is manpower intensive but not capital intensive. It requires a smaller set-up with certain
special equipment for testing and laboratory work. Hence, CROs can be set up faster, take
lesser time to scale up and have shorter timelines to start, if relevant manpower is available.
CRO contracts are relatively shorter duration which allows innovators to switch relatively
easily from one CRO to another.
India has always had a strong base of STEM graduates. Coupled with skills in chemistry and
pharmaceuticals, these graduates are crucial for science-intensive drug discovery work.
With a strong and growing supply of skilled manpower in areas of biology and chemistry,
India is ideally placed to attract a larger pie of the CRO outsourcing. In addition, India already
has an obvious cost arbitrage and is cost competitive against other major geographies
including China. The cost of scientific talent in India is 60-70% cheaper than the cost in
developed countries and 30-40% cheaper than the cost in China.
In recent years, many pure play R&D organizations or CROs have been set up in India by
overseas Indian citizens and strong local talent. These firms have the intellectual vigour and
niche capabilities, making them appealing to a broad clientele of innovators with very
specific requirements relating to different stages of the process. Acquiring more customers
is not going to be difficult once they prove their capabilities in execution and delivery.
2. India’s track record in clinical trial services is weak, but it can improve
with changes in regulations
India’s large population provides the perfect diversity needed for any pharma drug clinical
trial in terms of age, ethnicity, size, ailment, geography, climate, etc. Indeed, from 2000-2010,
India saw a sharp rise in number of trials conducted by global pharma companies. However,
many of them were conducted without following safety protocols and consent from trial
participants. As a result, there were a series of high-profile mishaps including loss of human
life. This led to a huge hue and cry, with the Supreme Court finally intervening in the matter
and forcing the government to tighten regulations in 2013.
Guidelines made clinical trial agencies and the innovator companies liable for injuries
caused to participants in the trials. Requisite regulatory permission to proceed with trials
itself became very complex and was only given after a rigorous process. Hence, the approval
process became lengthy and unpredictable. The overall cost of doing trials in India jumped
10-20x.
According to the Indian Society for Clinical Research, global clinical trial application
approvals plunged from a high of 529 in 2010 to a low of 17 in 2013. Subsequently, India
conducted only 70 global trials in 2014, 54 in 2015 and 44 in 2016. During 2013-19, less than
2% of global clinical trials took place in India. As a result, many research institutions and
investigators discontinued clinical trials in India. Many Indian companies (such as Biocon,
Piramal Enterprises, and Lupin) were also forced to go abroad to conduct clinical trials.
Countries such as Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines emerged as major destinations.
Clinical trials form one of the largest segments by value, at around ~ 40-45% of the global
CRDMO industry and have several 2nd and 3rd order benefits for the pharma ecosystem
wherever executed. Hence, the Indian government crafted the New Drug and Clinical Trial
(NDCT) rules in 2019, after studying best practices prevalent in USA, EU, and other
prominent trial geographies. More comprehensive regulations were put in place to align with
global norms, protect trial participants, improve data quality, and expedite the approval
process. According to the senior management of a leading India-based CRO, the new rules
have contributed to more trials coming back to India. Since 2019, global pharmaceutical
companies have been optimistic on the regulatory support for conducting clinical trials in
the country. This has resulted in the Indian clinical trial CRO market share improving slightly
from 2.4% in CY18 to 2.8% in CY23. (Source: Frost and Sullivan)
CAGR CAGR
India’s CRDMO Industry 2018 2023 2028F
2018-23 2023-28F
Funding environment
Driven by growth of
remains weak as of now,
complex therapies; Innovation mainly driven by R&D becoming more
CRO impacted more;
Biologics growing faster small innovator companies expensive by the day
Funding should improve with
than Small molecules
time
The Indian CRDMO industry is set to grow at a much faster rate in the future
compared to the past, driven by multiple growth drivers as explained in these
sections.
Industry Size ($ bn) 2018 2023 2028F CAGR 2018-23 CAGR 2023-28F
As % of Global 3% 4% 5%
As % of Global 6% 7% 7%
Narrative Reality
BioSecure Bill has already passed BioSecure Act not yet enacted into law, already diluted
India will replace China soon China is too big and difficult to replace easily or fast enough
India to benefit the most from Small molecule API manufacturing – both in innovation and generic APIs –
diversification driven by diversification requirements
Risks
CRDMOs require substantial initial investments in the form of upfront capital expenditure in
fixed assets and investments in a skilled workforce which are not easy to obtain. Winning
business from innovator clients is a long-drawn process and takes several months to years.
In the meantime, CRDMO companies have to make do with lower utilization of their
operating assets leading to sub-optimal returns on investments for the first few years. This
requires a fine balancing act between aggressive business acquisition practices and
maintaining financial discipline (in areas such as profitability, working capital, capex, and
funding the balance sheet via a judicious mix of debt and equity).
In addition, CRDMO companies need to comply with all the regulatory requirements of
different countries in various areas relating to manufacturing, IP Protection, data integrity,
environmental norms, health and safety, risk management, etc. Failure to do so can lead to
significant negative impact on existing and future business.
While external tailwinds are in place, it is also upon Indian CRDMO companies to ensure that
they deliver on the expectations of the clients in the form of consistent, reliable, and timely
delivery of services and products at reasonable costs. Failure to achieve these multiple
goals can affect future business.
Regulatory tailwinds form one of the cornerstones of a strong growth outlook for Indian
CRDMO industry. If there is any dilution or cancellation of these tailwinds (such as not
reducing sourcing from China), it can significantly impair the growth prospects of the Indian
CRDMO industry.
Chemicals (Small molecules) have been around the longest and are low molecular weight
compounds, typically less than 1 kDa (containing 20–100 atoms). They can be chemically
synthesized through a relatively small number of steps and have high reproducibility.
These include lipids, sugars, phenolic compounds, alkaloids & other classes of compounds.
Biologics, on the other hand, are classified as proteins that have a therapeutic effect. They
have a high molecular weight, with more than 1,000 amino acids, typically ranging from a
few kDa to 1,000 kDa. They are engineered to be identical to human proteins. These drugs
are developed through complex processes—synthesized, extracted, and purified from
live cells of living organisms—and sometimes require more than 1,000 steps. They often
incorporate certain synthetic chemistry processes. Because of the intricate development
process, they have low reproducibility. Biologics include vaccines, insulins, blood, blood
components, gene therapy, tissues, and other protein-based treatments.
As seen in the picture below, based on their size and weight, chemicals are also called
‘small molecules’ whereas biologics are also called ‘large molecules’.
Snake venom
Aspirin Immunoglobulin G
peptide, 61mer
They account for ~65% of the total global pharmaceutical market by revenue in 2023.
In contrast, large molecule drugs are costly to manufacture and, at this time, in most cases,
can only be administered by injection or infusion. However, because of their targeted actions,
they are more amenable to treating some of the prominent unsolved ailments like cancer,
neurology related ailments, and complex rare diseases which affect a smaller population but
are of much higher value as an effective treatment can help prolong life or the quality of life
itself.