Grade 11 Probability:

Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1. If 𝑃(𝐴) = 0 the event 𝐴 is impossible and if

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 the event 𝐴 is certain.

𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓

𝑷(𝒂𝒏 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕) =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

𝒏(𝑨)
𝑷(𝑨) =
𝒏(𝑺)

e.g. Consider rolling a die. The sample space 𝑆 (a list of the possible outcomes) is
𝑆 = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6}. There are 6 different outcomes in S so 𝑛(𝑆) = 6. Suppose we let 𝐴 be
the event rolling a prime number, 𝐴 = {2; 3; 5}. Therefore 𝑛(𝐴) = 3.

3 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = = = 0,5
6 2

Notation
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) Probability of A and B happening
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) Probability of A or B happening
𝒏(𝑨) Number of ways A can occur
𝑷(𝑨 ) Probability of not A
𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) Probability of A given that B has occurred
Probability Rules

Addition rule: 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Complement: 𝑃(𝐴’) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

Inclusive events have some element(s) in common. For example, the event of rolling a prime
number on a die and the event of rolling an even number have the number 2 in common.

𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 = {2; 3; 5}

𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛 = {2; 4; 6}

If events are mutually exclusive it means there is no intersection between the events. For
example, the event of rolling a 1 on a die is mutually exclusive to rolling an even number.

∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

Exhaustive events use up the whole sample space. There is therefore no element outside of A
and B. For example, the events of rolling an even number and rolling an odd number are
exhaustive as together they exhaust the whole list of possible outcomes {1;2;3;4;5;6}.

∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1

Events can be dependent or independent. Dependent events impact on one another's

probability by changing the sample space. For example, the probability of drawing a Queen

from a deck of cards is as there are 4 Queens in a deck of 52 cards. If we withdraw a King

first and do NOT replace it, the probability of our second choice becomes .

Independent events do not impact on one another. For example, the probability of flipping
heads on a coin and then flipping heads again do not impact one another. The second coin
outcome does not change depending on the outcome of the first.

We can test for dependency by using the Product Rule for Independent events:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

Exercise 1:

Solution:

(a) can be described by A because the intersection is not zero, D Because the set (A or B)
is not exhaustive since 7 is outside of of A or B and G because the sets are not exclusive,
they overlap.

(b) can be described by B because the sets have no overlap; D because the set (A or B) is
not exhaustive since 3 is outside of both sets and H because no intersection means the
events are mutually exclusive.

(c) A because the intersection is not zero; C because there are no numbers outside the
sets; G because there is an overlap.
 (d) B because the sets have no overlap; C because there are no numbers outside the
sets; E because the sets take up the whole sample space; F for complementary events
are mutually exclusive and exhaustive and H as above.

Solution:

(a) 𝑆 = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6}

( )
(b) 𝑃(𝐴) = ( )
= = 𝑃(𝐵) = = 𝑃(𝐶) =

(c) 𝑃(𝐴’) = 1 – 𝑃(𝐴) = 1− =

(d) A and B share the number 2 and B and C share the number 4. But A and C are mutually
exclusive as 4 is not a number less than 3. Therefore 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 0.

(e) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) (f) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

= + −0 1 1 1
= + −
3 2 6
3 1
= = 2 3 1
6 2 = + −
6 6 6
4 2
= =
6 3
(g) For independent events 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)

1
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) =
6
1 1
𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶) = ×
2 6
1
=
12

𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) ≠ 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐶)

Therefore B and C are not independent.

3.

TEAM 2
𝟏
TEAM 1 Solved
𝟑 𝑃(𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑑) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑑)

𝟏 Solved 1 2
𝟐 = 1−
𝟐 Unsolved 2 3
𝟑
𝟏 1 2
𝟏 Solved = 1− =
𝟑 3 3
𝟐
Unsolved

𝟐
Unsolved
𝟑
 4.

a) R 240
B
6 27
97 − 𝑥
17
𝑥 10

68 − 𝑥
26 C

b) 240 = 97 − 𝑥 + 6 + 27 + 𝑥 + 17 + 10 + 68 − 𝑥 + 26
∴𝑥=5

c) (1) 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑟) = =

(2) 𝑃(𝑁𝑜 𝐶𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐶) = 1 − =

(3) 𝑃(𝐴𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 2) = = =