Table of Contents

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 African climate summit: An
3
effort to decolonize African
Energy
Aneesha Khan

African and international leaders will attend the

carbon budget – an amount we simply cannot afford
African Climate Summit from September 4 to 6 in
to extract. The drilling operations have already caused
Nairobi, Kenya. They will deliberate on Africa’s unified
significant legal, social and environmental issues,
position on the climate crisis ahead of COP28, the
global climate talks, in December and develop the including destroying forests and crops and risking the
Nairobi Declaration for green growth, a blueprint for destruction of one of the richest biodiversity hotspots
Africa’s green energy transition. on earth. Biodiversity hotspots sustain livelihoods and
critical ecosystems. Extraction in these hotspots
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, who serves as CEO of
threaten livelihoods and species survival across the
the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC),
continent.
will also be in attendance.
BP’s big new gas plans in West Africa pose climate and
Oil Change International data shows the growth in oil
biodiversity threats in Senegal, and lucrative contracts
and gas production in the United Arab Emirates is
with ENI, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell and Total threaten
poised to be among the world’s largest in the next
Mozambique.
few years and ADNOC is expected to see the second
Africa’s leaders must take heed that our communities
biggest growth among
cannot risk a
fossil fuel companies.
repeat of the
Because of this, all eyes
devastation the
will be on Al Jaber to
fossil fuel
ensure he will set aside
industry
the short-term interests
brought to the
of the oil and gas
Niger Delta. The
industry and deliver
neocolonial
transformative action at
model of
COP28 as promised.
extracting and
To us, th at means a just exploiting
and equitable energy Africa’s
transition for Africa, resources at any
phasing out all fossil cost must stop.
fuels and bringing an end
The African
to the exploitation of our land, resources and
Climate Summit should be an opportunity to chart the
communities by Global North countries.
continent’s direction towards an equitable and
This year, African civil society organisations sent sustainable future that protects our people and
letters to the CEOs of BP, Chevron, Exxon and Shell, communities, and to prepare a coordinated front
among others, warning these companies against from African leaders to call for a fast and fair phase-
investing in the drilling activities of Reconnaissance out of all fossil fuels at COP28.
Energy Africa (ReconAfrica) in the Okavango Basin in
Yet the summit agenda appears to have been
Namibia and Botswana.
hijacked. The focus is on fossil fuel promotion instead
ReconAfrica’s projections of 120 billion barrels of of clean energy solutions and carbon credits instead
recoverable oil could produce a “carbon gigabomb” of of a just transition towards renewables. Pushing for
51.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, fossil fuels will continue to allow Global North
equivalent to one-sixth of the world’s remaining countries to exploit our continent’s resources and
threaten our future.

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More than 500 civil society organisations issued an Shifting to renewable energy and phasing out fossil
urgent call to reset the focus of the Africa Climate fuel reliance will permanently bring down soaring
Summit from Global North and corporate interests to energy costs and increase energy security. Renewable
one of African priorities, such as a just and equitable technologies are more affordable, can be scaled up
phase-out of all new fossil fuel projects. more rapidly and do not introduce further volatility
through increased climate damage, fiscal instability
Every new fossil fuel project is incompatible with a
and stranded asset risks as global gas demand drops.
liveable future. According to the International Energy
They can also be community-led and -owned and can
Agency, respecting the 1.5C warming limit and
better reach rural communities.
securing a liveable future means there can be no new
coal, oil or gas. This is the only
effective route
It is a myth
to achieving a
that fossil
more secure,
fuels support
prosperous
development.
future – for
Fossil fuels
Africa and the
neither equal
world. As
energy access
African leaders
nor do they
gather at the
equal jobs or
Africa Climate
profit. The
Summit and
resources and
head towards
profits from
COP28 talks in
fossil fuel
Dubai, they
extraction in
must act with
Africa have
the integrity
always been
and leadership
exported to
required to
the richest
ensure a
countries,
sustainable
leaving our
future
communities
powered by
with nothing
clean energy.
but pollution,
increased
inequality,
eroded governments and growing militarisation. ©AL-JAZEERA

Africa – the continent suffering the worst of the

climate crisis but having the highest renewable energy
potential – does not need new fossil fuels or false and
unproven technologies that allow rich countries to
continue to burn fossil fuels. African leaders must
listen to the African people, who want a just transition
to 100 percent renewable energy.

With 600 million Africans lacking access to clean,

modern energy, we say scaling up cheap,
decentralised, renewable energy is the fastest and
best way to end energy exclusion and meet the needs
of Africa’s people.

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A Fluid Order
Touqir Hussain
THE US and China may be the central players in a globalisation further, spurring the search for a new
global struggle for influence, but under the geo-economics.
umbrella of their rivalry, many middle and small
Along came a new geopolitics. The rise of China
powers are making their own mark on the
rattled not just the US but many other countries
international order. In partnership with the US on
too that felt they were dealing with a new China
most issues, in
under Xi Jinping.
alignment with
The Indo-Pacific
China on some, and
strategy is
independently on
basically a
others, they are
“leverage against
helping to reshape
any future
the world economy
aggressiveness by
by reconfiguring
China”, they
technology
argue.
cooperation,
diversifying US allies in the
investment, and Indo-Pacific are
rearranging supply strengthening
chains. In so doing, their defences
they are affecting the global balance of power, and through military and technological cooperation
raising their own economic weight, military with Washington. Japan’s fiscal 2023 defence
potential, and diplomatic stature. budget registered a 26.3 per cent increase.
Australia and India are engaged in more ‘forward-
Pakistan needs to understand these changes. What
postured’ security policies and defence strategies,
has caused them? First, the unhappiness with
tying their regional ambitions with geopolitics.
globalisation in the West, especially in America,
They have recalculated their interests
as factories and jobs were going to China, causing
independently of America although their policies
economic anxiety, social discontent and political
are in synch with US strategies.
backlash. Domestic politics began weighing
heavily on perceptions of China and globalisation. Geo-economics and geopolitics have merged. The
It led to the rise of Donald Trump, and attempts at US is taking the lead in redefining globalisation
de-globalisation. that does not harm national security, technological
supremacy and economic leadership. It is doing so
Then Covid-19 exposed the risks of overreliance
by denying high technology to China, to limit
on another country, especially a rival, for vital
Beijing’s capability for AI and military
supplies. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed
advancement. Most allies are going along. An EU-
how much the EU had come to depend on
led consensus seems to be emerging between
Moscow for energy. These events exposed the
America and its allies that, given Beijing’s
vulnerability of interdependence and tarnished

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centrality to the global economy, they cannot fluid in which Pakistan with its current
‘decouple’ their economies from China’s. Yet weaknesses is struggling to find a place with little
they must de-risk. to offer and much to ask for.

As for geopolitics, the hawkish rhetoric on © THE DAWN

Taiwan captures the headlines but away from the
glare of politics, traditional diplomacy is at work
as seen in the flurry of diplomatic contacts since
the Bali G20 summit of 2022 between Europe and
China on the one hand and the US and China on
the other. Washington now awaits the Chinese
foreign minister’s visit.

India is at the crossroads of new geo-economics

and geopolitics. Its geostrategic position on the
Indian Ocean and border dispute with China make
it America’s natural geopolitical partner while its
technology and economic potential make it an
attractive partner in geo-economics. In the joint
statement issued after Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s visit to Washington, the two governments
committed themselves to facilitating “greater
technology sharing, co-development, and co-
production opportunities between US and Indian
industry, government and academic institutions”.

India and many other middle powers are

benefiting not only by allying themselves with the
US but also by forming independent groupings at
the global or regional levels. India’s strategic
outreach to the Gulf and Asean stand out. While
mini forums like I2U2 (India, Israel, the UAE and
US) are tied with the American agenda, India has
also advanced its bilateral ties with the capital-rich
Gulf independently of Washington. On some
issues, India and its cohorts are aligned with
China, for instance, through BRICS and SCO.

China is engaged in its own high-profile

geopolitics and geo-economics via trade and
infrastructure projects, with many of its partners
having overlapping relations with the US. So what
appears to be a great power rivalry on the surface
is much more than that. There are several players
multi-aligning and multi-networking through mini
forums, ad hoc groupings and shifting coalitions
with or without getting involved in the US-China
rivalry. That makes the international order very

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Pakistan’s
Afghanistan Policy
Ashraf Jehangir Qazi

AFGHANISTAN’S internal developments are of of its diminished strategic relevance as well as

importance to its neighbours, especially Pakistan. India’s rising strategic profile in Washington.
But far more important is Pakistan’s Afghanistan
policy mess which is a direct consequence of In this bleak situation, Pak-Afghan relations are
Pakistan’s political situation. crucial. The Taliban government, long considered
a protégé of Pakistan, is no longer friendly. It sees
Let us take a brief look at Pakistan’s external Pakistan’s policy towards it as wavering between
relations. Its relations with India are hostile furtive support and kowtowing to Ame-rican
largely due to India. Its relations with Afghanistan demands. Its enemy at home is the Khorasan
are strained because of strategic short-sightedness. branch of the Islamic State. It cannot and will not
Its relations with Iran are dubious because of US treat the TTP as an enemy even though Mullah
diplomatic and economic leverage over Pakistan. Hibatullah Akhundzada has openly declared that
Its relations with China are stable but static attacks in Pakistan are not jihad.
because of its structural inability to avail of
transformation opportunities. Its relations with Mullah Akhundzada also asks pertinent questions.
Russia remain undeveloped due to Pakistan’s elite Why out of Afghanistan’s six neighbours only
deference to the US and India’s continuing Pakistan, which has fenced almost its entire
influence in Moscow. Its relations with the US, border, complains of terrorism from Afghanistan?
despite its elite deference, have declined because Is it because Pakistan cannot contain the TTP
which actually operates from inside Pakistan with

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on and off support from certain quarters? Or is it own strategic profile in the Indian Ocean and
because the other neighbours of Afghanistan are among all the neighbours of India, including
more committed to stopping TTP terrorism? The Afghanistan which does not actually border India.
Taliban government of Afghanistan denies it Even with US assistance, India does not have the
allows TTP terrorism against Pakistan from its capacity to overcome such a Chinese challenge.
territory. However, it concedes it has not been India’s strategic planners know this and unlike
able to stop it altogether. their counterparts in Pakistan do not fool
themselves.
The rest of Afghanistan blames Pakistan for
having imposed the Taliban on them and for the Accordingly, they know India’s ‘efficient path’
vicious regime that oppresses them — especially towards hegemony in South Asia is a détente with
women — in the name of Islam. They prefer India China rather than an option-limiting strategic
to Pakistan — and not just because of India’s alliance with the US against China. Such a détente
economic assistance. Pakistan’s assistance to would incline China to view Indian hegemony in
Afghanistan on a per capita basis has actually South Asia with less alarm and allow it to
been more than India’s but it has not brought any concentrate on countering US hegemony in East
political goodwill. This is the measure of the Asia.
failure of Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy. It has
Once a détente develops between India and China
allowed India to potentially develop a strategic
its momentum could carry it forward towards a
pincer or two-front situation against Pakistan.
possible entente cordiale and Pakistan would be
There is, however, a larger regional context that strategically isolated. To think the US would or
has to be considered. India seeks regional could prop up Pakistan against such a
hegemony in South Asia. As long as Pakistan was development would be foolish. It would still seek
perceived as a viable state its relations with China a close if less strategic relationship with India. It
presented an impossible obstacle to India’s will not consider ‘balancing’ its relations with
regional ambitions. This posed a strategic India and Pakistan, leave alone tilting towards
dilemma for it. The closer it got to the US against Pakistan against India.
China, including a quantum jump in critically
Accordingly, whenever Pakistan recovers from its
important military technology cooperation, the
current domestic predicament it should prioritise
more the US would demand as quid pro quo that
investing diplomatically and economically in
India move away from military cooperation with
Afghanistan’s stability and prosperity. This would
Russia, neutrality on Ukraine, and economic
progressively build goodwill among the Afghan
cooperation with China.
people, eliminate the danger of a two-front pincer
Why would India object given the importance of situation, and restore China’s confidence in its
being a de facto non-Nato military ally of the US preferred option of Pakistan being able to counter
which would significantly advance its regional India’s hegemonic aspirations in South Asia.
hegemonic aspirations? One, because India prizes
This could incentivise China to financially and
its own status as an emerging great power which
diplomatically support Pakistan’s much more
chooses its own strategic options; and two,
welcome influence in Afghanistan and transform
because ironically a closer strategic alliance with
the bilateral CPEC into a multilateral CAICAP
the US actually reduces India’s options for
(China, Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asia and
regional hegemony in South Asia despite the
Pakistan) that would be book-ended by China and
dwindling strategic significance of Pakistan.
Pakistan. This would eventually enable Pakistan
This is because China would be compelled by the to negotiate with India on more equitable terms,
US-India military alliance to dramatically raise its and enable the CASA region (Central and

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South/Southwest Asia) to become a major force

for peace, security and development in Asia.

Meanwhile, Pakistan needs to boost its own

credibility by dissuading the Taliban government
in Afghanistan — through incentives and
disincentives — from becoming a global pariah,
even in the Muslim world. It would need to make
the Taliban aware that its pretence of being more
Muslim than the rest of the Muslim world, and
especially its human rights policies, could
eventually lead to its isolation within the OIC.

Finally, an Afghan public opinion that regards

Pakistan much more favourably will be far less
disposed to accept Indian policies aimed at
undermining Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan.
Accordingly, instead of relying on installing a
‘friendly government’ in Afghanistan, Pakistan
should concentrate on cultivating a friendly
people in Afghanistan.
© THE DAWN

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Delusions-of-
Detente
Michael Beckley
With U.S.-Chinese relations worse than they have States’ overreaction to counter China’s overreach,
been in over 50 years, an old fairy tale has as Susan Shirk, a Sinologist and former U.S.
resurfaced: if only the United States would talk deputy assistant secretary of state, has put it. For
more to China and accommodate its rise, the two the past two decades, the thinking goes, China has
countries could live in peace. The story goes that simply been doing what rising powers usually do:
with ample summitry, Washington could flexing its muscles and demanding a greater say in
recognize Beijing’s redlines and restore crisis global affairs. Although many of China’s actions,
hotlines and cultural exchanges. Over time and such as its menacing of Taiwan, worry advocates
through myriad points of face-to-face contact—in of reengagement, the main target of their critique
other words, reengagement—the two countries is the United States—specifically, its relentless
could settle into peaceful, if still competitive, pursuit of primacy and the self-serving actors
coexistence. Talk enough, some analysts contend, behind it.
and the United States and China might even strike
In this dark imagining, grandstanding politicians,
a grand bargain that establishes stable spheres of
greedy defense contractors, sensationalizing
influence and something akin to a G-2 to solve
pundits, overzealous human rights activists, and
global problems such as climate change and
belligerent bureaucrats fan the flames of rivalry
pandemics.
for profit, creating an
echo chamber that
crowds out different
perspectives. Some
individuals are
supposedly repeating
hawkish narratives to
protect their careers. The
result, the journalist and
author Fareed Zakaria
has argued, is that
“Washington has
succumbed to dangerous
groupthink on China.”
The fact that most
Americans also hold
hawkish views on China
From this perspective, the dismal state of U.S.- just provides more evidence of how irrationally
Chinese relations is not an inevitable result of two aggressive U.S. policy has become. “The problem
ideologically opposed great powers clashing over today isn’t that Americans are insufficiently
vital interests. Rather, it is a mix-up between concerned about the rise of China,” the historian
partners, blown out of proportion by the United

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Max Boot has insisted. “The problem is that they those shifts, periods of détente were usually just
are prey to hysteria and alarmism that could lead chances to regroup and reload for the next round
the United States into a needless nuclear war.” of competition. In some cases, such as when the
United Kingdom sought to improve relations with
For those advocating reengagement, the solution
Germany from 1911 to 1914 and again in 1938,
to this cycle of hostility is straightforward. First,
pursuing détente paved the road to war.
defuse tensions through vigorous diplomacy,
commerce, and people-to-people exchanges. Next, The United States and China are unlikely to buck
create a new forum where officials from each this pattern. Their vital interests conflict and are
country can meet regularly to hash out rooted firmly in their respective political systems,
agreements. According to the historian Adam geographies, and national experiences. Many of
Tooze, regardless of the exact structure of the connections binding the countries together,
negotiations, the basic objective is the same: such as their extensive trade, are also driving them
“accommodation of China’s historic rise.” For apart by giving policymakers additional reasons to
some advocates of reengagement, accommodation fight and pressure points to exploit. Neither side
would merely entail reducing trade barriers to can make major concessions without exposing
China, a move U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet itself. And after decades of dealing with each
Yellen proposed earlier this year. Other observers, other, both governments have accumulated long
however, favor more drastic concessions. The lists of grievances and view the other with deep
political scientist Graham Allison, for example, mistrust. The United States tried to work with
has urged in these pages that the United States China repeatedly from the 1970s to the 2010s, yet
accept China’s traditional sphere of influence in top Chinese leaders consistently viewed U.S.
Asia. Presumably, that would mean giving Beijing outreach, especially the American attempt to
greater freedom in the South China Sea, letting go integrate China into the U.S.-led liberal order, as
of Taiwan, and relinquishing American power in an insidious form of containment—a plot
the region. designed to weaken the grip of the Chinese
Communist Party and lock China into economic
It is an enticing vision. The world would certainly
dependence and political subservience to the
be better off if great powers could settle scores
West. American outreach to China during this
through diplomacy rather than by squaring off in a
period was more extensive than the proposals
security competition. Yet the history of great-
being seriously considered by U.S. policymakers
power rivalry, and of U.S.-Chinese relations in
today. Nevertheless, these overtures failed to
particular, suggests that greater engagement is
fundamentally change Chinese assessments of
unlikely to mend ties between the countries and, if
American intentions or dissuade efforts by the
performed hastily, could actually catalyze violent
CCP to dominate East Asia and beyond.
conflict. Of the more than two dozen great-power
rivalries over the past 200 years, none ended with The fact is that the U.S.-Chinese rivalry is
the sides talking their way out of trouble. Instead, unlikely to wind down without a significant shift
rivalries have persisted until one side could no in the balance of power. The United States needs
longer carry on the fight or until both sides united to make policy choices based on this reality and
against a common enemy. For example, the not get caught up in a fantasy. This does not mean
United States and China paused their rivalry to cutting off diplomacy or shutting down talks
ally against the Soviet Union during the latter half completely, but being clear eyed about what that
of the Cold War, a contest that ended only when type of engagement can realistically achieve.
the Soviet Union sputtered into terminal decline. There are reasons to hope for a medium-term
In every case, shifts in the balance of power were mellowing of Chinese power that might open
preconditions for sustainable settlements. Before space for a real diplomatic breakthrough. To get

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there, however, the United States and its allies more to come. Just ask the Chinese today how
must deter Chinese aggression in the near term they feel about Japan.
and avoid concessions that disrupt favorable long-
Once underway, rivalries are extremely difficult to
term trends.
end. According to data collected by the political
BAD BLOOD scientists Michael Colaresi, Karen Rasler, and
William Thompson, there have been 27 great-
The United States and China have become what
power rivalries since 1816. These struggles lasted
political scientists call “enduring rivals,” meaning
for more than 50 years on average and ended in
countries that have singled each other out for
one of three ways. By my count, 19 of them—the
intense security competition. Over the past few
vast majority—culminated in war, with one side
centuries, such pairs have accounted for only one
beating the other into submission. Another six
percent of the world’s international relationships
rivalries ended with the two sides allying against a
but more than 80 percent of its wars. Think of the
common foe. In the early 1900s, for example, the
repeated clashes between India and Pakistan,
United Kingdom set aside its differences with
Greece and Turkey, China and Japan, and France
France, Russia, and the United States to gang up
and the United Kingdom.
on Germany; the result was World War I. Finally,
Rivals feud not because they misunderstand each there was the Cold War. When the Soviet Union
other but because they know each other all too collapsed, its rivalries with the United States and
well. They have genuine conflicts of vital and China ended peacefully, although in prior decades
indivisible interests, usually including territorial Moscow had waged a small border war against
disputes, the main cause of war. Their redlines China and multiple proxy wars with Washington
and spheres of influence overlap. One side’s in different parts of the globe. Today, many
attempts to protect itself, such as by modernizing people fear a new cold war between the United
its military, inherently threaten the other. If their States and China, but historically, that type of
economies are intertwined, as is often the case, tense standoff has been the best possible outcome
rivals wield trade as a weapon, seeking to because it avoids full-scale fighting.
monopolize the production of strategic goods and
Confronted by this record, those advocating for
lord it over the other side. The United Kingdom
greater U.S. engagement with China might
and Germany, for example, waged a fierce
respond that they do not seek the immediate end
commercial competition before coming to blows
of the U.S.-Chinese rivalry but merely détente, a
in World War I.
cooling-off period that allows the sides to put
Rivals also usually espouse divergent ideologies guardrails on their relationship. Yet the history of
and view the success or spread of the other side’s great-power détente provides little comfort. Such
system of beliefs as a subversive threat to their periods have rarely lasted long, even under
own way of life. For instance, revolutionary favorable circumstances. The most successful
France not only tried to conquer its European case, the Concert of Europe—an alliance of
rivals; it also threatened to topple their monarchies founded in 1815 after the Napoleonic
monarchical regimes through the power of its Wars to crush liberal revolutions—had all the
example. In the lead-up to World War II, fascist ingredients for a durable détente: a common
powers faced off against democracies, and during ideology, a common foe, and partnerships forged
the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet in war. But its top leaders stopped meeting after
Union divided much of the world into capitalist 1822, sending lower-level emissaries instead. By
and communist blocs. What is more, rivals share a the 1830s, the concert was riven by a cold war
history of bad blood. Their mutual hostility is between its liberal and conservative members. The
fueled by past acts of aggression and the fear of concert worked well when members’ core

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interests aligned, but when the conservative the status quo; the Soviets believed they had been
consensus cracked, so did the concert, which recognized as a superpower with all the attendant
erupted in a hot war over Crimea in 1853. That privileges, including the right to spread
failure illustrates a more general point: guardrails revolution. Once events exposed those conflicting
are more often the result of peace, not effective interpretations, the U.S.-Soviet rivalry came
methods to maintain it. They typically are erected roaring back.
in good times or immediately after crises—when
The bottom line is that great-power rivalries
they are least needed—only to be destroyed in bad
cannot be papered over with memorandums of
times. The most elaborate guardrails in history
understanding. Diplomacy is necessary but
were installed after World War I, including the
insufficient to resolve disputes nonviolently.
Kellogg-Briand Pact outlawing war and the
Sustainable settlements also require stable
League of Nations, a formal collective security
balances of power, which usually emerge not
organization; they failed to prevent World War II.
through happy talk but after one side realizes it
Those calling for Washington to engage more can no longer compete.
deeply with Beijing characterize the pursuit of
HATERS GONNA HATE
détente as risk free: it might fail, but it can’t hurt
and is worth a try. But when conflicts of interest Today, the U.S.-Chinese relationship has all the
between rivals are severe, overeager efforts to trappings of an enduring rivalry. For starters, the
induce détente can be destabilizing. The Anglo- main issues under dispute are essentially win-lose
German détente of 1911 to 1914 contributed to the affairs. Taiwan can be governed from Taipei or
outbreak of World War I by feeding Germany Beijing but not both. The East China and South
false hopes that the United Kingdom would China Seas can be international waters or a
remain neutral in a continental war. Between 1921 Chinese-controlled lake. Russia can be shunned or
and 1922, the world’s largest naval powers supported. Democracy can be promoted or
gathered in the U.S. capital to discuss squelched. The Internet can be open or state
disarmament at the Washington Naval censored. For the United States, its chain of
Conference. The effort eventually backfired, alliances in East Asia represents vital insurance
however, inching Asia closer to World War II as and a force for stability; for China, it looks like
the United States signaled it would oppose hostile encirclement. How should climate change
Japanese expansion but would not build the naval be handled? Where did COVID-19 come from?
power necessary to enforce that prohibition. The Ask around Beijing and Washington, and one is
Munich Agreement of 1938, which gave Germany likely to hear irreconcilable answers.
permission to annex part of Czechoslovakia,
More fundamentally, the two rivals hold divergent
enabled the Nazis to invade Poland the next year.
visions of international order. The CCP wants a
In 1972, the United States and the Soviet Union
world in which what it sees as ancient autocratic
declared their commitment to “peaceful
civilizations are free to rule their traditional
coexistence” and signed arms control and trade
spheres of influence. The United States, by
agreements. Détente began to unravel the next
contrast, wants to consign those spheres to the
year, however, as the superpowers squared off on
dustbin of history by protecting the sovereignty of
opposite sides of the Yom Kippur War, followed
weaker countries and integrating them into an
by a proxy conflict in Angola in 197 5, the Soviet
open trade order. The U.S.-Chinese rivalry is
invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and several
more than a set of diplomatic disputes—it is also a
terrifying nuclear crises in the early 1980s. As so
struggle to promote different ways of life.
often occurs, détente had meant different things to
each side. The Americans thought they had frozen

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To make matters worse, neither side can credibly economy and what was left of the open global
reassure the other without losing some ability to trading order. If the CCP stopped propping up
hold it accountable. Advocates of reengagement autocracies, it would risk waves of popular
call for the United States and China to respect revolutions, such as occurred in 1989 and the
each other’s redlines. But achieving a sustained early years of the twenty-first century, that could
thaw in relations would require at least one side to energize liberal activists at home and bring to
abandon many of its redlines altogether. China power regimes abroad that would be more
wants the United States to end arms sales to inclined to sanction China for its human rights
Taiwan, slash the overall record. If the United
U.S. military presence in States stopped aiding and
East Asia, share U.S. protecting fledgling
technology with Chinese democracies, however,
companies, reopen the some could disappear
U.S. market to a flood of behind Beijing’s digital
Chinese exports, stop iron curtain.
promoting democracy in
These conflicting interests
China’s neighborhood,
cannot be traded away by
and let Russia win its
diplomats sitting around a
war in Ukraine. The
table because they are
United States, for its part,
rooted not just in each
wants China to dial back
country’s political system
its defense spending,
but also in their historical
refrain from aggression
memories and
in the Taiwan Strait,
geographies.
cease its militarization of
Contemporary Chinese
the South China Sea, rein in industrial subsidies
political culture is ingrained by two cataclysms:
and espionage, and withdraw its support for
the “century of humiliation” (which took place
Russia and other autocracies.
from 1839 to 1949), when the country was ripped
Yet neither side could grant such concessions apart by imperialist powers, and the revolutions of
without empowering the other to push for more. If 1989 that toppled the Soviet Union and other
China backed off Taiwan militarily, for example, communist regimes and nearly undid China’s. The
the island could drift toward independence; but if CCP’s prime directive is to never let China be
the United States stopped arming Taiwan, the bullied or divided again—a goal, China’s leaders
military balance would shift radically in Beijing’s believe, that requires relentlessly amassing wealth
favor. If China allowed Russia to lose in Ukraine, and power, expanding territorial control, and
the CCP would face a reeling nuclear power on its ruling with an iron fist. As an economic late
doorstep and a triumphant United States freed to bloomer, China must use mercantilist methods to
focus on Asia; but if the United States let Russia climb up global value chains long monopolized by
win, a Chinese-Russian axis could be emboldened the West. With China surrounded by 19 countries,
to take even more territory, such as Taiwan or the many of them hostile or unstable, the country’s
Baltic states, from a demoralized West. If China leaders believe they must carve out a broad
abandoned its industrial policies, it would further security perimeter that includes Taiwan, chunks of
cede technological primacy to the United States; India, and most of the East China and South China
but Washington would not abide Chinese Seas, where 90 percent of China’s trade and most
mercantilism without hollowing out both the U.S. of its oil flow. Expansion is also a political

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imperative. The CCP justifies its autocratic rule in In practice, however, mutual vulnerability may be
part by promising to recover territories lost during exacerbating the rivalry. For example, both
the century of humiliation. Demilitarizing those countries are engaging in conventional military
areas now would mean surrendering the CCP’s provocations, perhaps under the assumption that
solemn mission to make China whole again and, the other side would never risk a nuclear exchange
consequently, diminishing its ability to use anti- by opening fire. Scholars call this the “stability-
foreign nationalism as a source of legitimacy. instability paradox,” whereby excessive faith in
nuclear deterrence makes conventional war more
American interests are perhaps less entrenched but
likely. Some Chinese analysts argue that the
remain too fixed to give up without a struggle. As
People’s Liberation Army could destroy U.S.
a rich democracy surrounded by allies and oceans,
bases in East Asia while China’s nuclear forces
the United States likes things the way they are. Its
deter U.S. retaliation against Chinese mainland
main foreign policy goal is to prevent overseas
targets. Meanwhile, some American defense
threats from spoiling the wealth and freedom its
planners advocate decimating China’s navy and
citizens enjoy at home. Many Americans would
air bases early in a conflict, believing that U.S.
love to avoid foreign entanglements, but the world
nuclear superiority would compel China to stand
wars and the Cold War showed that powerful
down rather than escalate. Instead of dampening
tyrannies can and should be contained—and that it
tensions, nuclear weapons may be inflaming them.
is better to do so early, before an aggressive
country has overrun its region, by maintaining The same goes for economic interdependence. As
strong alliances in peacetime. Americans may the international relations scholar Dale Copeland
eventually forget that lesson as the generations has pointed out in Foreign Affairs, when trade
that won World War II and the Cold War pass on. partners become geopolitical rivals, they start to
But for now, it continues to shape U.S. foreign fear being cut off from vital goods, markets, and
policy, especially toward China. When American trade routes. To plug their vulnerabilities, they
policymakers observe China trying to redraw the embark on quests for self-reliance, using various
map of East Asia, supporting Russia’s invasion of instruments of state power, such as aid, loans,
Ukraine, or locking ethnic minorities in bribes, arms sales, technology transfers, and
concentration camps, they see not just a series of military force, to secure their economic lifelines.
policy disagreements but a multifaceted assault on The result is a “trade-security spiral” that
the order that has undergirded U.S. security and Copeland has shown helped fuel several of
prosperity for generations. With the stakes history’s greatest wars. By contrast, the
seemingly so high, compromise, even on a single independence of the U.S. and Soviet economies
issue, is hard for leaders on both sides to stomach. was a stabilizing force in the original Cold War,
as the historian John Lewis Gaddis has observed.
Champions of reengagement correctly point out
that China and the United States are bound China’s economic situation today bears more
together by various forms of mutual vulnerability. resemblance to the economies of Germany, Italy,
Neither country wants war, runaway climate and Japan in the first half of the twentieth century:
change, pandemics, or a global depression. The China imports most of its raw materials through
U.S. and Chinese economies are intertwined. Both chokepoints it cannot fully control, relies heavily
governments possess nuclear arsenals and want to on exports to the United States and its allies for
prevent other countries from acquiring them. With revenue, and has good reason to worry that those
the costs of conflict so potentially devastating and countries would cut off its access to resources and
the benefits of cooperation so manifest, peace markets in a crisis. Having watched the West
should be relatively easy to maintain, at least in cripple Russia’s economy with sanctions, China is
theory. reportedly redoubling its efforts to decouple from

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The examples are plentiful. Following the 1989

Tiananmen Square massacre, U.S. President
George H. W. Bush sent an apologetic letter to the
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping expressing his
determination to “get the relationship back on
track” after the United States had imposed
sanctions in response to the CCP’s brutal
crackdown. Bush presumably meant resuming
work as tacit allies, with the United States
dropping sanctions and furnishing technology,
intelligence, and economic access to China. But
Deng wasn’t buying it. Instead, as the scholar (and
the United States. Through its so-called dual current National Security Council official) Rush
circulation policy, China is using subsidies and Doshi reported, Deng thought the United States
trade barriers to reorient its economy around its had been “deeply involved” in the
domestic market and is carving out privileged “counterrevolutionary rebellion” and was “waging
zones abroad to secure raw materials and markets a world war without gunsmoke” to overthrow the
lacking at home. Those moves, in turn, have CCP.Nine years later, U.S. President Bill Clinton
alarmed the United States, which is responding visited Beijing to cement his engagement policy,
with its own campaign for economic primacy. which included granting China “most favored
Rather than bringing the two countries together, nation” trading status without the human rights
commerce is driving them farther apart. standards normally required of a “nonmarket
economy,” the designation the United States
ENGAGEMENT OR CONTAINMENT? assigns to former and current communist
Those pushing for more engagement with China countries. In a gesture of goodwill, Clinton
argue that the United States should “test the became the first U.S. president to publicly
proposition” that diplomatic overtures could kick- articulate the “three no’s” regarding Taiwan: no
start a cycle of cooperation with China, as the independence, no two Chinas, and no membership
scholar Jessica Chen Weiss proposed in Foreign for Taipei in intergovernmental organizations. A
Affairs last year. But that proposition has been few months later, however, the Chinese leader
tested many times in recent decades, and the Jiang Zemin warned the CCP foreign policy
results have been far from reassuring. The United bureaucracy that Washington’s “so-called
States made concessions during that era of engagement policy” had the same aim as a
engagement that would be unthinkable today, “containment policy”: “to try with ulterior
including fast-tracking China’s integration into motives to change our country’s socialist system.”
Western supply chains, transferring weapons to Jiang further asserted that “some in the United
China’s military and advanced technology to States and other Western countries will not give
CCP-owned firms, welcoming China’s entry into up their political plot to westernize and divide our
major international organizations, quietly country” and would “put pressure on us in an
encouraging Taiwan to consider peaceful attempt to overwhelm us and put us down.” The
unification, and downplaying CCP human rights bottom line was that “from now on and for a
abuses. Yet internal documents reveal that top relatively long period of time, the United States
Chinese leaders repeatedly interpreted such U.S. will be our main diplomatic adversary.”
overtures as insincere or even threatening. During the following decade, the George W. Bush
administration encouraged China to become a

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“responsible stakeholder” in the international integration that helped the CCP strengthen itself
order and launched a series of U.S.-Chinese for a future contest over international borders and
“strategic economic dialogues.” The Obama rules.
administration expanded those dialogues to cover
That epic struggle now seems at hand. Determined
all major issues in the relationship and put out a
not to suffer Gorbachev’s fate, or worse, Chinese
joint statement respecting China’s “core
President Xi Jinping has spent his time in power
interests”—all in pursuit of “strategic
building a fortress around China and himself. His
reassurance.” But Chinese leaders were not
national security strategy calls for the opposite of
reassured. As the scholars Andrew Nathan and
the reforms and concessions that destroyed the
Andrew Scobell wrote in 2012, after reviewing
Soviet Communist Party but also brought the Cold
Chinese sources: “The Chinese believe the United
War to a peaceful end. A massive military
States is a revisionist power that seeks to curtail
buildup, the reassertion of party control over
China’s political influence and harm China’s
every institution, an epic campaign to sanctions-
interests.” Although Chinese leaders welcomed
proof the CCP: these are not the hallmarks of a
U.S. technology and market access, they were
regime interested in reengaging with a liberal
more struck by the threats the United States posed
superpower. Rather, they are the telltale signs of
to their regime, including its massive military
an aggrieved dictatorship gearing up for “worst-
presence in their region, its efforts to negotiate a
case and extreme scenarios and . . . major tests of
trans-Pacific trade bloc that would have excluded
high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous
Beijing, the army of U.S. nongovernmental
storms,” as Xi now repeatedly warns his
organizations meddling in China’s internal affairs,
comrades.
and the numerous times that senior U.S. officials
declared that the purpose of engagement was to BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES
liberalize China. Bad memories, such as the 1999
The most likely scenario in the years to come is a
U.S. bombing of China’s embassy in Yugoslavia,
cold war in which the United States and China
were much more present in the minds of CCP
continue to decouple their strategic economic
leaders than good ones—a common psychological
sectors, maintain a military standoff in East Asia,
phenomenon in a rivalry.
promote their rival visions of world order, and
Supporters of reengagement would like to see compete to produce solutions to transnational
Washington explain that it wants to include China problems. Cold wars are awful but better than hot
in a positive-sum international order. But Chinese ones. Many ties that bind the United States and
leaders understand U.S. offers of inclusion China—especially their dense economic links—
perfectly well, perhaps better than many are exacerbating their insecurities and becoming
Americans do. They saw what happened when new arenas of conflict. For U.S. policymakers, it
Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev tried to may be better to find avenues to create buffers
integrate the Soviet Union into the Western order. between the two sides than to try to make them
As Deng predicted, opening the window to the more interdependent.
“fresh air” of U.S. engagement also allowed in
A cold war does not rule out all forms of
“flies” in the form of subversive political forces.
cooperation. After all, the United States and the
To prevent something similar from happening in
Soviet Union worked together to eradicate
China, the CCP developed an authoritarian
smallpox even as they competed for dominance.
capitalist system designed to extract the benefits
Historically, great-power rivals, even those at war,
of an open global order while keeping liberal
have often maintained at least some trade in
political pressures at bay. For Americans, this
nonstrategic sectors and societal links with each
turned out to be as good as it got: a partial Chinese
other. Diplomatic talks can continue, provided

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they are not preceded by destabilizing are friendly. Those promoting reengagement
concessions, as they signal to allies and claim that competition with China has consumed
adversaries alike that the United States is not hell- U.S. foreign policy and that the United States
bent on a superpower throwdown. A cold war lacks a vision for the world beyond bludgeoning
does, however, entail U.S. containment of China, Beijing. But the United States has espoused the
a strategy that differs in three fundamental ways same vision for decades. It is called the liberal
from reengagement. order, an open commercial system in which
participants can trade and prosper in peace
First, containment prioritizes deterrence and
without fear of being gobbled up by revanchist
denial over reassurance. The United States should
empires. It is the system that made China’s escape
mollify China when it can, but not at the expense
from poverty possible by pacifying Japan and
of weakening U.S. capabilities or sending mixed
giving the Chinese people unprecedented access
signals about U.S. resolve on vital issues. For
to foreign capital, technology, and markets. It is
example, the United States can deny support for
the system that American policymakers have
Taiwanese independence, but it must also
repeatedly asked China to help uphold. But the
accelerate arms sales to Taipei, diversify and
CCP has instead become a serious threat to that
harden the U.S. base structure in East Asia, and
system with its aggressive territorial claims,
convey through a robust military presence nearby
rampant mercantilism, and support for Russia’s
that a Chinese assault on Taiwan would be met
brutalization of Ukraine. Some advocates of
with a severe U.S. response. Similarly, the United
reengagement call for sacrificing aspects of the
States can limit its economic restrictions on China
order—rules of international trade, and human
to a “small yard” of sectors, as the Biden
rights laws—to improve ties with China. Some
administration currently aims to do, but it must
even suggest offering concessions on international
also stock up on ammunition, especially antiship
borders and access to waterways in East Asia. A
missiles, to avoid pairing economic pressure with
policy of containment would do the opposite by
military negligence—a deadly combination that
insisting that China compromise its revisionist
blazed imperial Japan’s path to Pearl Harbor.
aims and, if the CCP refuses, accepting that the
Second, containment reverses the order of carrots liberal order will not revolve around a tight U.S.-
and sticks in diplomatic negotiations. Whereas Chinese partnership any time soon.
engagement involves enticing one’s opponent to
Containment may seem counterproductive at first
the negotiating table, containment starts by
because Chinese leaders will howl with the
building up capabilities and then pursuing
outrage typical of their “Wolf Warrior”
diplomacy from a position of strength. For
diplomacy. But sometimes the policy that appears
example, some members of the Trump and Biden
most fraught in the near term offers the best
administrations reportedly considered unilaterally
chance for a lasting peace—and the policy that
reducing U.S. tariffs or delaying sanctions on
seems safest in the moment could be disastrous in
Beijing as a sign of good faith. A better approach
the long run. Re-engagement, a seemingly prudent
would be to hold talks with allies, as occurred at
middle course between appeasement and
the G-7 meeting in May, to consolidate a free-
containment, may be the most dangerous of all
world economic and security bloc to check
because it neither satisfies Chinese demands nor
Chinese coercion and then collectively seek to
deters Beijing from taking what it wants by force.
settle the trade and technology wars with Beijing.
Since Chinese leaders repeatedly perceive U.S.
Third, containment measures success by whether offers of engagement as stealth containment, the
the United States effectively defends its interests choice the United States faces is not between
and values, not by whether U.S.-Chinese relations engagement and containment but between a meek

0321 1114880
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and waffling, yet still provocative, form of need to arm itself to the teeth to hedge against that
containment and a clear and firm version that at possibility—as well as against the possibility of a
least has some hope of deterring Chinese Chinese colossus that sets its sights on U.S.
aggression. territories in the western Pacific after overrunning
East Asia. Either way, the United States would be
Then, of course, there is capitulation. The United
back where it started—containing China—but
States could avoid conflict with China, at least in
without allies, secure supply chains, forward-
the short term, by recognizing China’s territorial
deployed forces, or much credibility. To
claims and withdrawing U.S. forces from East
compensate, the United States might have to
Asia. Few advocate such extreme
become a garrison state,
concessions. But part of what
with its wealth and civil
makes the case for engagement
liberties eroded by
compelling is the implicit
breakneck militarization.
assumption that if outreach fails,
the United States can always hit Capitulation might be
the reset button, grant China a worth a try if the only
sphere of influence, and emerge alternatives were a
relatively unscathed. The thinking catastrophic hot war or an
goes that it is better to endless and financially
accommodate China and risk crippling cold war. But
appeasement than to contain there are reasons to hope
China and risk war. that U.S. containment of
China can be a temporary
The problem with capitulation,
way station to a brighter
however, is that Chinese demands cannot be
future. During the original Cold War, containment
satisfied by the United States alone. To make the
was designed to block Soviet advances until the
CCP happy, Taiwan would have to accept
weaknesses of the communist system sapped
absorption by a brutal dictatorship, and
Moscow’s power and forced the Soviets to
neighboring countries would have to beg Beijing
radically scale back their ambitions. That should
for permission to venture beyond their coastlines.
be the same goal with China today, and it may not
None of that is likely, which is why the most
take four decades to get there. The drivers of
probable result of U.S. retrenchment would be not
China’s rise are already stalling. Slowing growth,
an immaculate transition to peaceful Chinese
soaring debt, autocratic incompetence, capital
hegemony but violent chaos. A fully militarized
flight, youth unemployment, and a shrinking
Japan; a nuclear breakout by Seoul, Taipei, and
population are taking a toll on Chinese
Tokyo; and an emboldened North Korea are only
comprehensive national power. The CCP has also
the most obvious risks. Less obvious are potential
made enemies near and far. Many of China’s
knock-on effects, such as the collapse of Asian
neighbors are beefing up their militaries, and
supply chains and U.S. alliances in Europe, which
major economies, led by the G-7, which controls
might not survive the shock of seeing the United
more than half the world’s stocks of wealth, are
States create a security vacuum for China to fill.
imposing hundreds of new trade and investment
Perhaps Americans could ride out the resulting barriers on Beijing every year. China garnered
storm from the safety of the Western Hemisphere, goodwill across the global South by doling out
but the history of both world wars suggests they more than $1 trillion in loans to over 100
would eventually be sucked into the Eurasian countries. But most of those loans will mature
vortex. At a minimum, the United States would around 2030, and many will not be paid back. It is

0321 1114880
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hard to see how a country saddled with so many

liabilities and facing so many rivals can continue
to compete with a superpower and its wealthy
allies. The United States does not need to contain
China forever, just long enough to allow current
trends to play out. Should that occur, Xi’s dream
of Chinese dominance will start to look
unattainable, and his successors may feel
compelled to address, through diplomatic
moderation and internal reform, the country’s
economic stagnation and geopolitical
encirclement.

In the meantime, containment does not have to

lead to violent conflict. Competition could see the
United States and China engage in a technology
race that pushes the frontiers of human knowledge
to new heights and creates innovative solutions to
transnational problems. It could also mean the two
rivals cultivate internally peaceful blocs of like-
minded states, and in which they use nonviolent
means, including the provision of aid, to try to win
hearts and minds and expand their influence at the
margins. This type of rivalry might not be so bad
for the world and certainly would be better than
the great-power wars that have characterized most
of modern history. The “one world” dream of a
single, harmonious international system may be
impossible for now, but that does not rule out
peaceful, if tense, relations between two rival
orders. Containing China in that competition will
entail severe risks and costs, but it is the best way
to avoid an even more destructive conflict.
© FOREIGN AFFAIRS

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The Missed Opportunity of

Europe’s Energy Crisis
Alexander Gard-Murray, Miriam Hinthorn, and Jeff D. Colgan
Before he began dropping bombs on Kyiv in more profoundly than ever before how continued
February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin reliance on fossil fuels not only harms the climate
prepared for his invasion of Ukraine in a quieter but also threatens security and prosperity.
way. He restricted energy exports to Europe in Although Europe avoided the immediate threat of
winter shortages, thanks in part
to mild temperatures, too few
leaders are doing enough to
reduce their susceptibility to
such blackmail in the future.
Instead of taking comfort in
escaping Putin’s energy trap,
governments must do more to
speed away from fossil fuels
and ensure that such
vulnerabilities become a thing
of the past.

LIMITED AMBITIONS
The scale of that vulnerability
is immense. In peer-reviewed
research at the Climate
late 2021, driving up prices across the continent.
Solutions Lab at Brown University, we calculated
After the invasion, Putin restricted exports even
the cost to European countries of higher wholesale
more, putting European countries in a bind:
prices and state aid to energy users, from the lead-
should they fund the Russian war effort by buying
up to the war to the end of 2022. The bill for fossil
fossil fuels at elevated prices or risk losing critical
fuel dependence came to more than a trillion
energy flows at a time when stocks were already
euros. That’s more than ten times what Europe
depleted? As countries began banning Russian oil
spent on support for Ukraine last year and also
imports and trying to cap the worldwide price of
more than three times the spending required by
Russian oil, energy prices in Europe skyrocketed,
REPowerEU, the bloc’s strategy for accelerating
with natural gas prices peaking at ten times their
the clean energy transition and reducing reliance
prewar average. Prices have fallen since, but the
on Russia.
volatility and geopolitical vulnerability inherent in
fossil fuels remains. In the face of these gargantuan costs, leaders
should be using every tool at their disposal to
The European energy crisis is a wake-up call to
wean their countries off fossil fuels as fast as they
the dangers of fossil fuel dependence. But too
can. Unfortunately, that has yet to happen.
many countries are hitting the snooze button.
Putin’s attempt at energy blackmail highlights

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European governments have definitely made agreed target of 32 percent. That seems
progress, but they are not pulling out all the stops. ambitious—except that analysis from the
independent energy think tank Ember shows that
For instance, the EU’s solar capacity is already on
Europe is already set to outpace the 42.5 percent
track to exceed what were supposed to be
goal, with the ability to source 45 percent of its
ambitious targets. As supply chain problems
energy from renewables by 2030. In that light,
eased, capacity growth in 2022 exceeded the most
leaders must reevaluate what is possible. Further
optimistic prewar estimate of the trade association
analysis by Ember shows not only that Europe
Solar Power Europe by 15 percent. But there is
could get 50 percent of its energy from
room to grow faster. Many projects are ready to
renewables by 2030 but also that it could
break ground but find themselves held up by
decarbonize 95 percent of its power sector by
permitting issues. Truly ambitious policymakers
2035. Because renewable forms of energy come
would help cut through the red tape.
with no fuel costs, the savings from reducing
Wind power did not fare nearly as well in 2022 as fossil fuel dependence would offset the additional
its solar counterpart. Its expansion was hampered upfront expenditure required to develop
by long project timelines, complex permitting renewables.
problems, the price inflation of components,
European countries are also being sluggish in their
windfall taxes on the electricity sector, and
moves away from oil and gas. Ember’s models
congested electricity grids that have trouble
suggest that by 2035, Europe would need to get
handling large new additions of power. Despite
only five percent of its energy from gas. Even
government rhetoric about moving away from
though no new gas plants “need to be
fossil fuels, wind capacity growth was only two
commissioned beyond those expected by 2025,”
percent above the prewar estimates of the trade
some countries are acting as if gas demand will
association Wind Power Europe. More troubling,
continue to be strong for years to come. Germany,
investment in future wind capacity was 40 percent
for instance, is planning 60 gigawatts of new gas
lower in 2022 than in 2021, the lowest level of
plants by 2030. The United Kingdom’s new
investment in any year since the Great Recession.
energy security strategy, published in March of
The crisis spawned by the Russian invasion of this year, calls for “maximizing supply of UK
Ukraine certainly directed greater attention to gas,” “maintaining and securing our gas import
clean energy in Europe, but that focus has not yet and export capacity,” and “ensuring long term
produced the commensurate results. Governments investment in gas networks.” The country has
are failing to seize the opportunities available to recently signed a 15-year, $8 billion deal for gas
them. In terms of solar power, policy is lagging imports from the United States. At the same time,
the market instead of leading it. When it comes to the British energy security strategy contains little
wind, governments have not addressed the key in the way of incentives for developing clean
barriers that are keeping the industry from energy, highlighting how the government fails to
achieving tremendous growth. Overall investment see clean energy as a matter of energy security.
in renewables actually dropped last year in According to the Institute for Energy Economics
Germany and the United Kingdom, the two largest and Financial Analysis, Europe as a whole is
economies in the region. building more than twice the gas import capacity
it will need by 2030.
After tough haggling between the European
Parliament and EU member country governments, SLEEPWALKING INTO CRISIS
the bloc set a new target in March of sourcing
Last year’s energy crisis exposed the extent to
42.5 percent of the continent’s energy from
which energy security depends on
renewables by 2030, up from the previously

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decarbonization. Too many leaders still view the goals—requires even more action. Even after the
extraordinary spending they had to allow as a implementation of the IRA, the United States still
temporary response to an “artificial” problem, as has to cut emissions by another 500 million tons
opposed to a recurring feature of fossil fuel to be on track to meet its 2050 target of net-zero
markets that have proved vulnerable to emissions, according to Princeton’s REPEAT
geopolitical shocks since the 1970s. Russia had Project. And as long as the United States remains
already shut off gas supplies through Ukraine four dependent on fossil fuels, the global nature of
times in the last two decades. Moreover, various energy prices means that the country will continue
wars in the Middle East have disrupted petroleum to be vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
supplies globally, including the Yom Kippur War
Two or three decades ago, technology constrained
in 1973, the Iranian Revolution of 1978–79, the
the ability of countries to move away from fossil
Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the Gulf War of 1990–
fuels. From storage facilities to electric vehicles to
91, and the insurgency in Iraq and Syria of the so-
heat pumps, the equipment vital to replacing fossil
called Islamic State (or ISIS) in the 2010s. Of
fuels was either too expensive or in need of
course, the supply chains underpinning renewable
significant improvement. But in the intervening
energy are not free of geopolitical complications,
years, the pace of change has picked up: the
but the actual energy source is invariably local
technology has improved significantly and costs
and immune to interference—after all, once a
have come down dramatically. The question is no
windmill or solar panel is in place, no foreign
longer whether decarbonization can happen—it is
despot can shut down the wind or the sun.
happening—but it remains unclear whether
It is unrealistic, of course, to expect countries to decarbonization can take place quickly enough to
switch entirely to clean energy overnight. stabilize the climate.
Countries will need to make limited short-term
There remains plenty to do. Obviously,
investments in networks and storage for fossil
governments should extend maximum support to
fuels. But unfortunately, governments are doing
developing renewable energy. But nuclear power
much more than that: they are putting money into
should also be on the table. Other sectors—such
projects that make financial sense only in a world
as public transport, the construction of new
where heavy fossil fuel demand continues for
buildings, and the retrofitting of existing ones—
decades. Policymakers can insist these
need more government assistance with rapid
investments are just precautionary, but this
electrification to take advantage of the bounty of
spending takes resources away from building
cheap renewable power. Electrical grids need
renewables, electrifying new vehicles and
major investments to ensure that the power
buildings, retrofitting structures to be more
generated by clean energy can be well distributed.
efficient, and expanding the electrical grid. And
And governments need to cut down bureaucratic
once new fossil fuel facilities come online, their
hurdles by streamlining permitting processes,
owners will be reluctant to surrender their newly
fully staffing permitting offices, and making sure
built assets in the name of decarbonization,
that decisions are issued as quickly and
strengthening political resistance to the task of
consistently as possible. The alternative to such
moving away from fossil fuels.
swift action is prolonged dependence on fossil
These problems are not Europe’s alone. In the fuels, a prospect that looks worse every day. Such
United States, for example, the Inflation dependence not only imperils the planet but also
Reduction Act represents a tremendous leap in creates energy security risks from geopolitical
climate ambition, and like the backers of events. Moreover, it is unnecessarily expensive at
REPowerEU, its creators should be proud. But a time when renewables are becoming ever
living up to its potential—and meeting net-zero cheaper

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True energy security rests not just on securing

fossil fuel supplies in the short term. Governments
must use the buffer of those stocks to speed up the
medium-term exit from fossil fuels. Indulging the
dependence on fossil fuels is not hardheaded
realism. Rather, it is tantamount to sleepwalking
into the next crisis. It’s time for Western
governments to wake up.

ALEXANDER GARD-MURRAY is Director of

Greenhouse, an independent climate policy think
tank. He was a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Climate
Solutions Lab from 2021 to 2023.
© FOREIGN AFFAIRS

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Beyond Economic
Struggles
Adnan Anjum
these revisions are
complete, the ECP can
proceed with the
delimitation process.

Recently, the ECP

announced its intention to
complete the entire
delimitation process, which
includes hearings of
citizens’ representations, as
well as making necessary
amendments, alterations
and modifications to the
final list of constituencies
The impending elections have encountered an by December 14, 2023. Consequently, the election
innate delay extending beyond the initially programme will require an additional 60 days,
stipulated 90-day timeframe due to the decision of with the election date now scheduled for February
the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) 11, 2024. Some speculate that this election delay
concerning the delimitation of constituencies is aimed at providing the caretaker government
following the announcement of the census results. with the time needed to implement decisions in
line with the IMF’s nine-month Stand-By
Despite concerns regarding the credibility of the Arrangement, scheduled to conclude in March
census results, given their significant alterations 2023. Therefore, there are serious concerns that
compared to the provisional results announced in elections might face further delays under various
May 2023, the necessary adjustments to the pretexts. The existing decision to postpone
constituencies are within the confines defined by elections is already problematic, as the
the Elections Act of 2017. A recent amendment to Constitution lacks any provision for such delays
the Elections Act empowers the ECP to exercise beyond the 90-day timeframe. Nevertheless, the
greater flexibility in constituency delimitation, ECP has defended its decision, citing Article
allowing it to deviate from strict adherence to 218(3) of the Constitution.
existing district boundaries. However, the ECP
has not made any public releases regarding the The continuity of a caretaker setup, introduced
changes in Election Rules. According to Section into the formal system after the 18th
239 of the Elections Act, 2017, the ECP is Constitutional Amendment, until the elections are
required to share the revised Rules for public held is not clearly defined by the Constitution.
scrutiny and provide 15 days for objections or This situation becomes even more formidable
suggestions before their official publication. Once considering the hurried enactment of legislation
conferring additional powers to the caretaker

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government. Following the dissolution of the

Punjab and KP Assemblies, the caretaker
governments have already assumed control for a
considerable period in a constitutional vacuum.
In tandem with the delimitation process, the
electoral rolls will also undergo revisions. As per
the ECP’s last update in June 2023, there were a
total of 126,066,874 registered voters —
71,606,379 in Punjab, 26,529,136 in Sindh,
21,621,211 in KP, 5,274,761 in Balochistan and
1,035,387 in ICT. A comparative analysis of the
recent census results and this electoral rolls update
reveals that the voter-to-population ratio stands at
approximately 52% for the entire country. Punjab
exhibits an elevated ratio of about 56% while KP
has an average of around 53%. In contrast, the
remaining regions exhibit voter-to-population
ratios that are below the national average. Sindh
has a ratio of 48 while the ICT reports
approximately 44%. Balochistan’s voter-to-
population ratio is significantly lower at 35%. The
ECP must take necessary steps to improve
registration numbers within the timeframe of
elections.

Given the economic trajectory and escalating

governance concerns, it is imperative for Pakistan
to establish a stable democratic government
capable of safeguarding rights and entitlements,
thereby preempting potential exploitation by
external forces. Achieving this objective hinges
upon conducting elections widely regarded as
legitimate and accurate, endorsed by a diverse
spectrum of political stakeholders rather than a
select few. Any decision to further delay the
election timeline carries significant repercussions.
Extending the caretaker period provides an
opportunity for exploitation and stands in
opposition to the very spirit of democracy. The
only path forward lies in nurturing a stable
democracy with an elected government!
© EXPRESS TRIBUNE

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Colors of The Flag

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh
THE Christian communities of India and Pakistan Since the perpetrators and victims are typically
are under attack by those representing the saffron from similar socioeconomic backgrounds, it is
and green parts of their respective flags. Saffron is imperative to develop a long-term view.
particularly ruthless towards poor Muslim Delivering fundamental rights to marginalised
neighbourhoods in India, while the green is groups is an intricate and complex process
unforgiving to young Hindu girls in Sindh. requiring multiple interventions by various organs
Perhaps there is no other region of the world of the state and other stakeholders. Let’s see if we
where the colours of flags have been interpreted in are prepared to tackle the issue head-on.
such exclusionary terms.
The white strip on our flag, one-fourth of the total,
A key difference is that while in India vigilantism represents the existence of religious minorities in
symbolises the state-sponsored reign of Hindutva the country. Yet, violence against minorities in
ideology, in Pakistan, it shows the weakness of Pakistan started in 1948 when a synagogue in
the state that has neither the moral compass nor Karachi was torched.
the willingness to stand up for the rights of the
The community it represented was largely a
vulnerable segments.
bystander during partition, as were the Christians
Equally important, we have failed to develop a of Jaranwala. Since then, many minorities have
vision to lift the minorities and other marginalised faced varying degrees of harassment or outright
groups from ghettos and katchiabadis, where half violence: Jews, Zoroastrians, Sikhs, Bahais,
the urban population lives, to a level where they Ahmadis, and even Muslim sects including Shias
can lead dignified lives through inclusive and and occasionally Ismailis, Bohris and Zikris.
climate-smart development.
Some groups have engaged in relentless ethnic
We know that the Christian minorities mostly live cleansing of the Hazara community in
in congested neighbourhoods that are informal or Balochistan. Clearly, the white strip has been
illegal, located on unproductive tracts of land in dishonoured and discoloured. It is now soaked in
low-lying and disaster-prone areas, mostly not just the tears but also the blood of religious
without civic amenities and environmental minorities.
services, and often in worse conditions than their
The number of minorities has diminished; some
poor Muslim counterparts.
have almost disappeared. In 1951, for example,
Without recognising these fundamentals, the the Hindus formed 22 per cent of the population
principles of climate justice cannot be delivered. of East Pakistan and 15pc of Sindh. The minority
The recently adopted National Adaptation Plan percentage dropped drastically in 1971 with the
has identified several points of intervention for separation of the eastern wing.
urban adaptation that can help reduce the
In Sindh, the Hindu population has reduced to
socioeconomic and climate vulnerabilities of such
1pc, even if the Pakistan Hindu Council claims it
marginalised communities.
is 8.7pc. But we have retained the size of the

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white part of the flag because symbolically, it While the majority view prevails in a democratic
reflects the rights of religious minorities, and not dispensation, it cannot deny the right of minority
necessarily their size. views to exist, nor the space they deserve.
Societies become innovative by using minority
According to Nadra, there is one person who
views as sources of learning and reflection,
identifies himself as Jewish in the country. In
sometimes for remorse or mid-course correction.
principle, the white colour in our flag stands for
the rights of this single individual. The delivery of the promise of the green colour in
the flag, therefore, hinges on the collective,
White has been interpreted as the colour of peace,
consensual meaning of the white part.
purity and paradise in Islamic history. It is about
Regrettably, the white strip has been violated
time we viewed the significance of the white strip
since the late 1970s with policies that trivialised
in our flag in much broader terms than just the
the religious principles of jihad and blasphemy.
rights of religious minorities. The views of
minorities in our daily lives are equally important. The white in the flag needs to be the primary

A civilised society plays a pivotal role in allowing source of societal peace and harmony. It must be
itself to become tolerant and accommodating of based on compassion that is inseparably linked to
diverse views. A minority view in the corporate truth and justice. It must take the form of a politics
boardroom, cabinet deliberations, parliamentary that, as Akmal Hussain has summed up in his
debates, or on the Supreme Court benches, newly released book Pakistan, Institutional
deserves no less respect and consideration than the Instability & Underdevelopment, “aims to change
majority view. the social order that systematically generates

0321 1114880
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poverty and inequality, and injustice inherent in Instead of disbursing cash, the government should
these economic phenomena”. give victims of injustice land titles to restart their
lives. The formation of assets can serve as an
In Pakistan, poverty and climate vulnerability are
example of affirmative action in the region
two sides of the same coin. The Christian colony
through climate adaptation, poverty alleviation,
in Jaranwala is a prime example. Here are four
empowerment, and restoring dignity to the victims
ways to give solace to mainstream minorities.
of prejudice and exclusion.
First, justice delayed is justice denied. Cases
© THE DAWN
should be fast-tracked to communicate that a red
line has been crossed and that that is unacceptable.

Second, promote role models from within

marginalised communities. Lend support to young
entrepreneurs and their start-ups. Akhuwat, Kashf
and other microfinance institutions can help
nurture their dreams.

Third, invest in the education of young girls and

boys from minority communities. Nothing
empowers communities more than education. The
Benazir Income Support Programme, private
foundations and others can step up efforts to
promote education among minorities.

And finally, support asset formation for poverty

alleviation, without which it is difficult to lift
people out of poverty. Recent examples provide
guidance. The Sindh government is awarding land
ownership documents to flood victims for the
construction of climate-proof houses.

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Chandrayaan-3 and
Pakistan
Dr. Salman Hameed
Chandrayaan-3 is slowly descending towards the and Australia, after failing to get out of even the
surface of the Moon. If things go as planned, the group stage.
spacecraft will make a soft landing at 5:34 pm,
This can partly explain, but not excuse, the
Pakistan time, on Wednesday, August 23rd. I love
churlish comments of the former Science
such precision, as this is what it takes to undergo a
Minister, Fawad Chaudhry, to the soft-landing
complex mission about 380,000 kilometres away!
failure of the Chandrayaan-2 mission in 2019.
If successful, India will become only the fourth Failures are, in fact, an essential part of science
country, after the US, the former Soviet Union, and of life. It is the lessons learnt from failures
and China, to achieve a soft-landing on the Moon. that can be truly transformative.
In fact, the last 20 years have seen only three
In this particular case, the Indian space agency,
successful landings, and they are all from China.
ISRO, identified the software glitch that led
The rest have crashed on the lunar surface,
Chandrayaan-2 slightly off course, crashing 700
including Russia’s Luna-25 just this past Sunday.
meters from
For Pakistanis, this is the target
a tough mission. site.
Pakistan’s own space Agonizingly
programme, despite a close. That
promising start in the problem
1960s, is appears to
languishing. To make have been
things worse, resolved. But
nationalistic chest- there are still
thumping is part and no
parcel of space guarantees.
programmes, despite The Moon is
the lofty rhetoric of still a few
“For All Mankind”. hundred
India is no exception thousand
to that, and indeed, kilometres
its space programme is fast becoming one of the away. But the only way to ensure success is to try,
best in the world. and this is exactly what India is doing.

As humans, it is often natural to feel the tribal or If successful, Chandrayaan-3 will become the first
nationalistic pull of the competition. To borrow an spacecraft to land in the south-polar region of the
analogy from cricket, for many Pakistanis, this is Moon (about 69 degrees south). This area is of
like watching a World Cup Final between India immense importance. There is evidence of the
presence of water ice in the permanently

0321 1114880
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shadowed craters in the lunar south pole. In fact,

the Indian orbiter, Chandrayaan-1, helped make
that discovery back in 2009. As a result, the
southern polar region is expected to be the site of
future human settlements, and US and China are
already planning on sending astronauts/taikonauts
there in the next couple of years.

Pakistan is not really in any conversation about

missions to the Moon. This could change. But
right now, this is the reality. If Chandrayan-3 is
successful, on the one side, we are going to see a
lot of bemoaning and lamenting on the state of
science and education in Pakistan. We are also
going to get cheap memes that will deny or belittle
the success of the mission. This latter reaction, we
will be told, is justified because of the jingoism
and taunting expressed by some of the extreme
elements in India.
There is always an excuse and blame to go
around. Zero-sum appears to be the only accepted
game.

But this doesn’t have to be the case. Competition

doesn’t have to bring out the worst human
instincts. Instead of anger and envy, can we see
the Indian achievements in space out of wonder
and admiration? I don’t know where Pakistan’s
space program will be in the next 20 or 30 years.
But more than any science investment, a genuine
respect for others’ achievements can serve as a
seed for any potential development in space.

In the meantime, let’s root for and celebrate a

successful landing on the Moon by the Vikram
lander of Chandrayaan-3 mission!
© THE FRIDAY TIMES

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Explaining Hunger in Pakistan:

Food Security in Historical And
Contemporary Perspective
Samaha Chaudhry
In answering such a question, our finger can never
stray from colonialism: the single most destructive
force the world has experienced in the past few
centuries. Although there was no uniform system
in the subcontinent with regards to cultivation, the
process was not commercialized – at least in the
modern sense. In many areas, subsistence farming
was practiced; peasants grew their own food, and
a variety of food was grown to cope with the
The hunger situation in Pakistan is the most nutritional needs of a household. Even with the
abysmal in South Asia. According to one caste system in place, the peasants were not
UNOCHA report, it is worse than even entirely without protection; if nothing, they still
Afghanistan. Our number of stunted children – had share in the harvest. They were still food
twelve million – is highest in the region; over half secure.
of our population, women and children Then, entered the colonial powers, and the British
particularly, experience some kind of deficiency, emerged as victors among them. With the
and according to the Global Hunger Index, our introduction of commercial farming, indigenous
hunger problem is ‘serious’. systems of production were decimated on a
To say that such headlines were shocking would massive scale. No longer did the poor peasant
be a lie. After all, haven’t we all heard it before, grow a variety of food for the dietary needs of his
from the day we first heard our elders talk about family unit. Instead, he was encouraged to grow
Pakistan? We are a poor country and most of our the crops which would generate the most cash –
compatriots can barely afford one nutritious meal and specialize in them
in a day. Therefore, our firefly is gratitude – its This may sound profitable to our ears, but one
home must reside in the gardens of those who can must note here that the farmer, independent in
eat comfortably. cultivation of his nutrition before, was now made
Melancholic and spiritual as this portrayal is, it forcibly dependent on the modern market. The
makes it all the more important to investigate the South Asian farmer encountered the newborn
origins of such great lack. We must ask why. Why classes of middlemen, and feudal lords whose sole
is it that this image was fit into our minds from the purpose was to extract as much rent as possible
very beginning? Was our nation born poor? Were for the British and their own pockets. With what
we always starving, even a thousand years ago? Is meagre wages he had left for himself, he was now
the white man right when he speaks of his burden expected to buy other kinds of food from the
– how he civilized the brown brute who was in market, and meet his dietary needs. Thus, he
need of rescue from his own savageness? became subjected to price shocks, inflationary and
interest mechanisms – all the while, sinking
deeper into poverty himself.

0321 1114880
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Moreover, commercial farming had to be done on further devalue the rupee; farmers may hit targets
certain lines – making use of modern technology, and export, but at what cost? The government is
always in search of innovation to maximize profit. not likely to give greater subsidies in production,
Farmers who could not afford this new schema of anyway, given the structural adjustment policies it
production were forced to take loans, often from must now implement.
middlemen, who found even better grounds to
On top of this, there is a new hyena we must
exploit them, and entrap them in debt cycles.
combat, which was never our hyena at all: the
Stripped of autonomy, and in most cases, his share
climate crisis. Although one may argue that the
of profit, the peasant encountered true systematic
Earth’s climate has always been shifting, there is
alienation in Marxist terms for the first time. Life
no doubt that human activity in the past century
in pre-colonial times may have been difficult, but
has greatly accelerated the pace of change – and
now, the hunger of liberal modernism was
worsened its impacts. And the brunt of this assault
catching up – a unique monster in its own right.
of nature is borne not by those who caused it, but
It is no surprise, then, to see that while agricultural those they impoverished. For instance, Pakistan
production was peaking in India, its peasants were emits less than 1% of the world’s emissions, and
pushed deeper into poverty and hunger. The yet is the eighth most vulnerable nation to its
common man was clearly not the beneficiary of consequences. From deadly heatwaves to melting
the schemes of modernism and productivity glaciers to lethal flash floods, we do not have the
erected to apparently civilize him. After all, he privilege of escaping global warming.
was prohibited to touch even salt from the seas.
It is essential, therefore, that we begin adapting to
No, the cash was for the masters and their friends.
the crisis, seeing as we cannot mitigate it – not
This backdrop of food insecurity still haunts us unless we join hands with all the countries in the
today. Pakistan, born an agrarian economy, was world and revamp the entire global financial
poor in part – and a very large part – because it system – which would be idyllic, but
was made that way by its colonial masters and unfortunately, we cannot afford to be idealists.
their colluders – many of them in assemblies and Being the nation facing the brunt, we are forced to
governments. Most feudal families today were root our feet in realism and pragmatism.
likely given land by the British in exchange for
Flood embankments, mass relocation of
their cooperation. After all, dissidence never went
individuals from flood plains, strengthening
unpunished in the British Empire, at least not
disaster management, and improving water
when it came to the brown skin.
storage facilities seem to be key to this process.
Today, Pakistan stands at its worst food security However, greater research and investigation is
junction in history; the floods of 2022 decimated obviously needed – on a district-to-district level –
most of our crops and impacted 34 million people to discover adaptation strategies most suited to the
– to put this into perspective, farmland the size of needs and climate of Pakistan. The hour is upon
Czech Republic was drowned. Food shortages us, and we succeed only as long as we put the
since the pandemic has resulted in an increase in vulnerable first. Perhaps, that, too, is an idyllic
overall price of food – although, Pakistan has had dream.
a relatively stable wheat production, we have been
© THE FRIDAY TIMES
importing food since the lockdown. The economic
crisis further compounds this inaccessibility; in
March 2023 alone, food inflation stood at 47% in
urban areas and has touched approximately 50.1%
in rural. Moreover, IMF loans are expected to

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Combating religious
extremism
Dr. Asif Channer
Unfortunately, on August 16, a terrible shockwave respectful conversations between religious
of religious extremism rippled through our society communities foster understanding and break down
resulting in setting ablaze four Churches and stereotypes, dismantling walls that divide us.
ransoming about forty houses, victimising Enforcing laws against hate speech,
Christian minority in Jaranwala Faisalabad. As discrimination, and violence is crucial in curbing
unsettling as these events are, they underscore the extremist tendencies. Swift, impartial justice sends
urgency to confront the underlying causes of a clear message against religious intolerance.
religious extremism and to take unified actions to
To prevent such incidents in the future, a multi-
prevent their recurrence.
faceted approach is essential. Investment in
Religious extremism, a global challenge, quality education promoting critical thinking,
jeopardises societal peace and harmony. tolerance, and diversity appreciation is vital. An
Importantly, these incidents do not represent any educated populace is more equipped to reject
particular religious communities but rather, the extremist ideologies. Initiatives encouraging
actions of a radical minority seeking to sow interaction between religious communities build
division. To combat this challenge, we must tackle bridges of understanding and empathy, fostering
the root causes that fuel religious extremism. unity. Responsible reporting devoid of
sensationalism can prevent escalation of tensions,
Radical ideologies often arise from distorted
given the media’s role in shaping public opinion.
religious interpretations. Religious leaders must
guide their followers towards compassionate and Fostering harmony through understanding and
tolerant understandings of faith. Extremist tolerance within families, communities, and
ideologies thrive in environments of poverty, workplaces helps combat extremism.
limited education, and Policymakers should prioritise
economic enhancing mechanisms against
opportunities. hate speech and violence, along
Addressing these with socio-economic
disparities through development for marginalised
comprehensive communities.
policies can mitigate
The strength of the Pakistani
radicalisation’s appeal.
people’s resilience is evident in
Exploiting religious the wake of these incidents.
sentiments for Across the nation, communities
personal gain have united to condemn
exacerbates tensions violence and promote peace.
and fuels extremism. Transparent and accountable The unity displayed by leaders from various
leadership is necessary, devoid of manipulating religious backgrounds demonstrates our shared
religious emotions for political purposes. Open, values’ power. The path ahead is challenging,

0321 1114880
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requiring participation from religious leaders, Let’s remember that the true essence of any
educators, media professionals, policymakers, and religion lies in promoting love, compassion, and
citizens. Embracing diversity and upholding respect for all human beings. Extremism tarnishes
compassion, empathy, and tolerance will these values and distorts the core teachings of
marginalise extremist voices. Religion’s essence faith. By choosing the path of unity,
lies in promoting love, compassion, and respect. understanding, and peaceful coexistence, we can
Extremism distorts these values. Unity, create a society where religious differences are
understanding, and peaceful coexistence lead to a celebrated rather than exploited.
society celebrating religious differences rather
Pakistan’s history is rich with examples of
than exploiting them.
religious harmony, where individuals of various
Pakistan’s history boasts religious harmony. It’s faiths have lived side by side in peace for
our duty to build upon this legacy, safeguarding generations. It is our responsibility to build upon
values that define our diverse nation. Adversity this legacy, to safeguard the values that make us a
shouldn’t divide us; shared humanity should unite resilient and diverse nation. In the face of
us. Dialogue, dispelling myths, and fostering adversity, let us not be divided by our differences
cross-religious relationships will transcend but be united by our shared humanity. Let us
boundaries. Together, we can replace hatred with engage in open dialogue, dispel myths, and foster
understanding. The journey ahead is challenging relationships that transcend religious boundaries.
but defining. Together, we can extinguish hatred’s Through collective efforts, we can ensure that the
flames with understanding’s light. It’s our call to burning of churches and the perpetuation of
action for our country, children, and future religious extremism become mere footnotes in the
generations. history of a nation that chose unity over division.

Recent incidents must catalase positive change. A The journey ahead may be challenging, but it is a
peaceful and tolerant society starts with each of journey that will define the future of our great
us. Moving forward secures Pakistan’s brighter nation. Together, we can extinguish the flames of
future and contributes to a world where hatred and replace them with the light of
understanding triumphs over extremism. In the understanding. This is our call to action, and it is
wake of these distressing incidents, the resilience one that we must heed for the sake of our country,
of the Pakistani people shines through. our children, and the generations that will follow.
Communities across the nation have united to As we move forward, let us not be discouraged by
condemn these acts of violence and promote peace the recent incidents, but rather let them serve as a
and understanding. The courage displayed by catalyst for positive change. The road to a more
leaders from various religious backgrounds, who peaceful and tolerant society begins with each one
have come together to denounce extremism, is a of us. As we take these steps forward, we not only
testament to the strength of our shared values. secure a brighter future for Pakistan but also
contribute to a world where unity and
While the road ahead is undoubtedly challenging,
understanding triumph over extremism and
it’s a journey we must undertake together. This
discord.
endeavour demands active engagement from
religious leaders, educators, media professionals, © THE NATION
policymakers, and citizens. By embracing our
diversity and upholding the principles of
compassion, empathy, and tolerance, we can
ensure that the voices of extremism remain
marginalised.

0321 1114880
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CPEC Changing
Punjab
Yasir Habib Khan
Over the past decade, the China-Pakistan added opportunities, further strengthening the
Economic Corridor (CPEC) is reshaping the province’s economic prospects. Chinese
development landscape of Punjab, the most assistance in intercropping, high-yield seeds, pest
populous and agriculturally rich province of control, and agricultural machinery training
Pakistan. contributed to this success. Agricultural exports to
China reached $730 million in 2022, expected to
The collaboration between China and Punjab in
exceed $1 billion during the current year.
the agriculture sector has played a crucial role in
Collaborations in research, training, and
boosting agricultural productivity, improving
infrastructure development have further enhanced
farming techniques, and increasing the quality of
Punjab’s agriculture. The leasing of state land for
agricultural products. This not only supports local
corporate farming and partnerships in various
food security but also positions Punjab as a
sectors also support the industry’s growth.
potential exporter of high-value agricultural
commodities to China and other international Furthermore, the CPEC Unit of the Agriculture
markets. Department in Punjab has been entrusted with a
crucial role as the primary resource center for both
the Public and Private Sectors. Its main objective
is to raise awareness among key stakeholders,
such as farmers, producers, exporters, the general
public, and government officials, about the vast
array of opportunities and implications arising
from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC).

Through investments and technology, China is

promoting Punjab’s agro-processing units,
individual quick freezing, potato powder or flakes
manufacturing, dehydration, olive oil extraction,
and solar dehydration of vegetables. These
initiatives aim to reduce post-harvest losses,
enhance shelf life, and boost product value. By
collaborating with China, Punjab is advancing its
agricultural productivity and ensuring food
security for the future.

Moreover, China’s timely and substantial

assistance proved invaluable in Pakistan’s battle
The integration of agriculture and industry in against the worst-ever swarms of desert locusts a
Punjab creates a robust supply chain and value- few years ago. Thanks to the support from China,

0321 1114880
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the National Locust Control Centre reported that meeting with the caretaker CM Punjab Mohsin
no locusts were reported from Khyber- Naqvi, Chinese Consul General, Lahore Mr. Zhao
Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Punjab provinces, with Shiren assured continued cooperation with Punjab
affected areas witnessing a significant decline in in various sectors, pledging complete assistance in
locust populations. China provided 300,000 liters tackling the smog problem. Furthermore, Chinese
of essential pesticides, 12 drone sprayers, and 30 companies are also installing Air Quality
other spraying equipment, worth US$5 million, to Monitoring Stations across Punjab for informed
combat the locust threat. decision making in environment sector.

Additionally, the Department of Plant Protection China has also come forward to the forefront to
of Pakistan received protective gear and secure Punjab’s cities. Few months ago, Punjab
equipment from China. The cooperation between Safe Cities Authority (PSCA) and Chinese
the two countries extended to training, technology company Huawei have signed a settlement
transfer, and the establishment of monitoring and agreement, with the Chinese company taking
early warning platforms. Pakistan’s agriculture responsibility for operationalising the entire PSCA
sector now stands better equipped to handle future infrastructure. The Punjab government will not
locust challenges, ensuring food security and have to pay any additional amount, and
safeguarding the world’s food basket. maintenance works will be carried out at the
initial dollar rate of Rs.104, as per the original
Additionally, the possibility of collaborating with
agreement.
Chinese experts to control foot-and-mouth disease
(FMD) and other animal illnesses is being Additionally, Punjab is home to major educational
considered by the Punjab government. This institutions, research centers, and skilled labor.
collaboration signifies significant opportunities The province has a well-established education
for the livestock sector in Pakistan and reinforces system, producing a large pool of qualified
the strong relationship between China and Punjab professionals. CPEC emphasises knowledge
in agriculture and livestock-related initiatives. sharing, capacity building, and collaboration in
the academic and research sectors. Punjab’s strong
Punjab is known for textiles, engineering,
educational infrastructure and skilled workforce
chemicals, automotive, and other industries.
enable it to contribute significantly to the human
CPEC’s focus on industrial development and
resource development aspect of CPEC. Chinese
establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs)
government and intellectuals are also helping in
in Punjab, such as the Allama Iqbal Industrial City
establishing Chinese Study Centers across the
in Faisalabad, leverages the existing industrial
most of the Universities in Punjab, which will not
base, attracting local and foreign investment,
only increase people to people exchange but will
creating employment opportunities, and boosting
also promote Chinese culture in the province.
exports.
Similarly, the Chinese have pledged full
The development of the AIIC is part of CPEC’s assistance in improving health facilities for the
broader plan to promote industrialisation and people of Punjab. This support includes
economic diversification in Punjab. By facilitating preparation of synovac vaccine and facilitating the
the growth of key industries, CPEC aims to create vaccination of a significant portion of the
thousands of employment opportunities, enhance population against COVID-19.
the province’s export capacity, and foster
Moreover, there are plans to sign an MoU with
economic growth.
Nadra to ensure 100% certainty in identifying
China has also shown its commitment to help unidentified bodies in government hospitals, with
Punjab in coping with the smog crises. During a both health departments fully cooperating to

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implement the MoU and provide support in such as steel, agrochemicals, spinning machinery,
medico-legal cases in Punjab’s government chicken farms, meat processing factories, and
hospitals. more. Several delegations from China visited the
Punjab Board of Investment and Trade (PBIT) to
Punjab witnessed a major breakthrough when
explore investment opportunities and discuss
Pakistan signed the deal under which China would
potential projects. The Chinese investors are keen
build a 1,200-megawatt Chashma-V nuclear plant
on establishing warehouses for steel products,
at Chashma in the Mianwali district of Punjab.
chicken farms, meat processing factories, and
CPEC has prioritised several projects and petrochemical-related industries. Additionally,
initiatives in Punjab, ensuring the province’s some Chinese delegates are interested in
active participation and substantial benefits from manufacturing steel, aluminum, and plastic doors
the corridor. The development of energy projects, in Punjab, while others are exploring opportunities
including the Sahiwal Coal-fired Power Plant, the in pesticides, agrochemicals, petrochemicals, fiber
Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, Karot Hydropower aramid products, solid tires, and spinning
project and the machinery. The PBIT has
upcoming Azad assured full support and
Pattan facilitation to the Chinese
hydropower companies in establishing
project in Azad their presence in Punjab.
Jammu Kashmir
China is also contributing
and Punjab
in Electronic Vehicle
region,
industry in Punjab.
addresses the
Huaihai Holding
energy needs of
Company, a Chinese
Punjab, ensuring
vehicle manufacturing
a stable power
company, is teaming up
supply for
with its Pakistani partner
industries,
to invest $10 million in
businesses, and
the production of electric
households.
vehicles in Punjab. The
Transport initial focus will be on
infrastructure manufacturing two-
development in wheeler and four-wheeler
Punjab under CPEC is significant. The Peshawar- vehicles in the region.
Karachi Motorway (Multan-Sukkur Section) and
CPEC’s railway upgradation project focuses on
the Orange Line Metro Train in Lahore are
Punjab’s railway network, with the upgradation of
flagship projects that have improved connectivity
the Main Line-1 (ML-1) from Karachi to
within the province, easing the movement of
Peshawar and Taxila to Havelian. This project
people and goods. The Cross Border Optical Fiber
aims to increase train speeds, improve safety, and
Cable project enhances communication networks
enhance the efficiency of freight and passenger
and digital connectivity, benefiting Punjab’s IT
transportation in the province.
sector and facilitating e-commerce and digital
services. © THE NATION
Moreover, Chinese companies have expressed
interest in investing in diverse sectors in Punjab,

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SOE conundrum: To
be, or not to be…
Sajid Mehmood Qazi
State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have become a Dispelling misconceptions
subject of heated debate in Pakistan, with
While concerns regarding mismanagement and
conflicting opinions on their impact. Detractors
misuse of resources exist in both public and
argue that SOEs drain national resources through
private entities, effective governance and
inefficiencies and misappropriation, while
accountability mechanisms can address these
proponents highlight their significant role in
challenges. Discrediting SOEs as perpetual “white
socioeconomic development.
elephants”
This article aims to oversimplifies their
present a potential and
comprehensive overlooks the
analysis, using positive impact
examples like they can make
OGDCL (Oil and when properly
Gas Development managed. To
Company Limited) achieve financial
in Pakistan and EDF sustainability, it is
in France, to crucial to address
demonstrate that issues of
SOEs can achieve governance and
financial promote
sustainability when granted autonomy and operate transparency within the SOE sector.
in a competitive environment with minimal
Autonomy as a Catalyst for Success
government interference. Emphasizing the
importance of competent Boards of Directors, this Allowing SOEs to operate with autonomy is
article advocates independent decision-making crucial for their financial viability. Minimizing
and fair competition to maximize SOEs’ potential. government interference enables efficient
decision-making based on market dynamics,
Fostering socioeconomic development:
fostering innovation, adaptability, and
SOEs often operate in vital sectors critical to a responsiveness to consumer demands. By
nation’s growth, such as energy, transportation, emulating private sector practices, SOEs can
and infrastructure. Through their government improve efficiency and achieve profitability.
ownership, SOEs can align their objectives with
Case Study: OGDCL in Pakistan
national development goals and ensure the
provision of essential services to all citizens. Their The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited
contributions extend beyond financial gains, (OGDCL) in Pakistan exemplifies the potential of
facilitating economic stability, job creation, and an autonomous SOE. Despite being government-
improved public welfare. owned, OGDCL has achieved profitability

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through competent management, strategic consumption. The non-payment by these

decision-making, and efficient resource companies is a separate matter of inquiry but for
exploration. By harnessing Pakistan’s energy the present purpose it is noted that the OGDCL is
resources, OGDCL contributes significantly to the worst affected among the chain of companies
energy security and revenue generation, in the public sector getting a financial hit on
highlighting the financial viability of SOEs when account of factors generally attributed to the
properly managed. government’s socioeconomic agenda rather than
any intrinsic flaw in the operations of OGDCL or
However, since last many years the largest
other SOEs notwithstanding the line losses and the
national oil and gas exploration and development
high amount of theft and unaccounted for gas
company is badly affected by non-payments by its
perpetuating the ever ballooning oil and gas
various clients affecting OGDCL’s balance sheet
circular debt
and severely undermining its expansion plans.
Moreover, the company cannot operate freely and Global Example: Electricité de France (EDF)
is required to supply gas to non-paying state
EDF, a government-owned enterprise producing
distribution utilities due to binding regulatory
and distributing electricity in France,
framework.
demonstrates that financial sustainability is
OGDCL is to receive about Rs 1 trillion from attainable even in highly competitive markets.
different clients on account of crude oil and gas EDF’s success can be attributed to its ability to
supply. Of the total, its receivables from Sui adapt to changing market conditions, invest in
Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL) stand renewable energy sources, and leverage its
at Rs282.4 billion and from Sui Northern Gas expertise to remain competitive globally.
Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) Rs239.2 billion.
These achievements underscore the potential of
It is worth noting that OGDCL produces gas at SOEs to thrive when allowed operational
different fields and provides it to SSGCL and autonomy. In the year 2022, the EDF operations
SNGPL. In turn, the two gas utilities supply gas to in the UK earned it a hefty profit of €1.26bn
consumers in different categories which comprise supplying electricity and gas to five million
domestic users, commercial units and power households. While in the same year the company
plants. These state distribution companies are overall faced a loss of €4.99bn due to
required to sell gas under a priority formula set up government’s policy decisions.
and approved by the federal government
In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s
subsidizing some consumers at the cost of the
government responded to Russia’s invasion of
others also creating challenges for the companies
Ukraine by imposing a tariff “shield” for
to operate in a profitable manner.
consumers, limiting energy companies to a 4%
Furthermore, some power plants receive gas rise in 2022 followed by 15% in 2023, keeping
directly from OGDCL’s fields for electricity inflation lower than in other European countries.
production. Among the power plants, Uch Power But it meant that EDF had to sell power to French
Limited has to pay OGDCL Rs71.8 billion, Uch-II consumers at a loss, while UK consumers paid far
Rs54.17 billion, Engro Rs263 million and Fauji more for their energy. EDF has around 80% of
Kabirwala Power Company Limited Rs23 million. France’s electricity market. Isn’t it ironic that a
state-owned company is making loss in its own
OGDCL also produces crude oil and supplies it to
backyard while earing big profits in a country next
local refineries for processing and production of
door?
petroleum products. These refineries have to pay a
total amount of Rs61.8 billion for crude oil The role of competent boards of directors

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To ensure SOEs’ financial sustainability, it is Striking the balance:

imperative to appoint competent and experienced
While advocating for reduced government
boards of directors. These boards should consist
interference, it is important to acknowledge the
of professionals with industry expertise and a deep
need for appropriate regulation and oversight. The
understanding of corporate governance principles.
government’s role should transition from
By empowering capable boards, SOEs can operate
micromanagement to a supervisory one, ensuring
independently, appoint skilled managing directors
adherence to ethical practices, transparency, and
and CEOs, and compete on an equal footing with
alignment with national objectives. This balance
private companies.
enables SOEs to operate efficiently while still
The appointment of competent Boards has being accountable to super shareholder through
assumed higher significance after the new federal audit and umpteenth regulatory and
corporate law in Pakistan has given enormous parliamentary oversight bodies.
powers to the Boards to hire and fire MDs without
© BUSINESS RECORDER
seeking the approval or even concurrence of the
line ministry or the federal cabinet.

Promoting fair competition:

To maximize SOEs’ potential, it is vital to create a
level playing field by promoting fair competition.
This entails ensuring that regulations and policies
treat SOEs and private enterprises equitably,
removing preferential treatment or unfair
advantages. By embracing fair competition, SOEs
are motivated to improve efficiency, foster
innovation, and enhance overall performance.

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The power sector

woes
Engr Tahir Basharat Cheema
i
BODs fully manned by politicos or their
protégées, operational management with
temps and that too who have the right
connections and the unbridled NTDC,
Gencos and IPPs on the prowl – the
result of the last many reforms forced
upon Wapda and the successor ex-Wapda
PSCEs (Power Sector Corporatized
Entities).

Delving into history would be most

helpful. The first WB-sponsored reform
was adopted during the late 1980
whereby Wapda’s distribution regions
were converted into the UK modelled
Area Electricity Boards (AEBs). That by
Presently, the power sector has become an then the UK had already decided to do away with
existential threat for Pakistan. The situation has this set-up and privatize the Sector is another
been further exacerbated by the falling rupee and story.
the ever-strengthening dollar. That the UK restructure edit’s Central Electricity
We have ended-up with spare generation capacity Generating Board (CEGB) along with its regional
(on account of stunted sales and the mindless electricity boards and privatized the whole sector
policy of revenue-based loadshedding), inability by 1990 informs us about our belated doings.
of DISCOs to recover their revenues and scourge Presently, there is a clamour to bring back its
of illegal abstraction of electricity/power – evident ownership to the public domain in the UK.
all over the country. Political, business and agriculture nominations
Trite 1960s technology and the sad jump into were made on the AEBs and from thence on
sham AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) political interference has been institutionalized in
assures that the things are not about to change – at the power sector. Not being left to the AEBs, the
least in the near future. World Bank supported by other MLDAs decided
that as WAPDA was still there in the stewardship
Various multi-lateral developmental agencies role GoP was forced to take up another round of
(MLDAs), mindful of their charters are up in arms reforms resulting in the setting-up of PEPCO
with calls for immediate reform in the Sector. This (wresting the Power Wing out of Wapda) as a
for all is to somehow allow the Discos a free float management company and converted the AEBs
within the present scene of a myriad policies, into non-listed public limited companies – now
intruding Power Division, a lackluster regulator, known as the Discos, while also setting-up the

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NTDC (National Transmission and Distribution non-professionals in the Ministries do not have the
Company) and the four Gencos (owning all of the depth to select for any of the above positions, a
publicly owned generating assets – then 4820 MW distinct board of sectoral experts will have to be
in all). formed to interview probables for the position of
CEOs, CTOs – a must for Discos to graduate to
These GENCOs, as programmed, have since
the next level of technology, the CFOs, CLOs et al
simply shut shop with spare estates to be pilfered
for the PSCEs.
by looters. Even state of the art plants installed in
2012 and 2014-15 are shut pending repairs. Serious O&M studies are needed to fix the right
strength for each Discos, the NTDC and the
Presently, all of these ex-Wapda PSCEs are
Gencos and settle the issue of over-staffing,
managed by distinct BODs. Unfortunately, there
bloated HQs (DISCOs boast tens of BPS-20/21
are only five power sector professionals amongst
functionaries against just one up to 1980), and
the 180 or so board members. Most of the
possible filling-up of or other-wise of the 60,000
members are either political to the core or their
or so vacancies in the PSCEs, re-doing of all the
nominees – surely unrelated to the sector. So
BoD (riding them of the political fat and flab in
much is the importance of SECP’s (Securities and
one go) with only sectoral and allied professionals
Exchange Commission of Pakistan’s) Fit &
and that too who are paid (most necessary as
Proper Criteria for the board members.
against the presently so-called gratis ones).
And besides meddling in the day-to-day
Then comes the governmental representation on
operations – especially of the Discos, these
the 16 BODs (all of the PSCEs). These should
untrained persons are more interested in touting
necessarily be from the AGP’s office, the Finance
their protégées and assuring that the Discos
Division and one from the Power Division. The
wrongly invest in electrification of specific areas.
fourth from the provinces would also have to be a
According to estimates, all of the budget for the hard core professional instead of anyone (sadly &
loss reduction programme has been lost while erratically) holding the position in the Energy
catering for opening-up new areas for Departments.
electrification – a crime in the sector’s lingo.
The PP&MC (Ex-PEPCO) needs to be converted
Thus, the last three reforms have weakened as an integral part of the Power Division and as a
Wapda, have ended with Pepco converting itself monitoring and reporting company instead of an
to the PP&MC – an appendage to the Power entity responsible for planning – as if, the
Division, Discos and other PSCEs being run by Planning Commission, the CPPA-G (Central
politicos, a lackluster regulator, PPIB (Private Power Purchasing Agency-Guaranteed) and the
Power and Infrastructure Board)/ AEDB NTDC were not enough. It should then be rightly
(Alternative Energy Development Board) – a named as the Directorate General of Power like
signing machine propagating IPPs and the related the DGs (Oil, Gas & PCs) under the Petroleum
PPAs that cannot be implemented, hundreds of Division.
this genre in the pipeline that will further choke
Once the basics are done, then the present
the Pakistanis with their mindless tariffs (mostly,
organogram – especially, of the Discos — has to
over-invoiced and pipe dreams like the CTBCM
be changed from the century-old set-up of
(Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market) –
SDOs/XENs/SEs and the CEs. It has to be based
found dead on arrival and governments who
on the model of business units at the present circle
promise more reform).
levels etc. The details can be worked out by
What could be the solution? It all begs an answer. seeking advice from sectoral experts.
As the existing politically motivated boards or the

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Along with the changed/upgraded BUs, comes the

issue of enabling legislation to cater for the failed
writ of the state in huge swaths of the country.
Some of the requirements were drafted in 2011-
12, but left as it is. The then managers had other
issues to deal with – especially, to arrange for the
badly needed MWs in those energy deficit
regimes.

Now that we have a surplus regime (all dressed-up

with nowhere to go), the possibility of enacting
and implementing the required legislation should
pose no problem at all. And without such support,
the DISCOs will not be able to deliver. The
enactment has to support full recovery of the
billed units besides assuring consumer discipline –
the missing link at the moment.
To concurrently follow would be to re-think the
PPIB-AEB’s mandate and it’s staffing, what
(CPPA-G) (Central Power Purchasing Agency-
Guaranteed) does and has to do, the treatment of
and the pipeline IPPs, the plans and policies in
vogue (to be merged into one all-encompassing
bible), the regulator Nepra (National Electric
Power Regulatory Authority) and its failures as
yet and what it should do and not do – reduce its
burgeoning staffing with corrected direction etc.
All in all, professionalism has to take precedence
in all of these entities.
It will be difficult as it all hits the present
wayward thought process and the interests of the
non-professional beneficiaries of the system.
However, nothing short of the above eight
changes can resurrect the power sector of today.
The faster all of these solutions are implemented,
the better it would be for the country.
© BUSINESS RECORDER

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Questions: What aspect of your chosen

occupational group appealed to you the most?
Answer: Comparatively greater scope to bring a
positive change in the system, as well as the day
to day lives of my people was the biggest
attraction. Even though such statements seem
cliched due to the frequency and carelessness with
which they are delivered, these are the
ideals that attracted me towards Pakistan
Administrative Service.
Question: How helpful did you find CEPI
during your preparation? And how was your
experience at the Institute?
Answer: I came to CEPI during my Interview
preparation to appear in a mock interview. Out of
all the interviews I had given uptill that time, the
one at CEPI challenged me the most. It took me
out of my comfort zone and created the sort of
pressure that one feels on the day of Final
interview. Not only did it serve as a wake up call
for my preparation, but I learnt the art of
maintaining composure and clarity of thought
when one is being grilled by the Interview panel.
For this contribution to my preparation, I shall
remain grateful to CEPI.
Question: What would you say were your
certain personality traits that helped you in
acing the CSS exam?
Answer: Some of the traits that helped me in the
exam were unflinching faith in Allah Almighty
and consistent smartwork. Since day one, I tried to
dissect each and every component of the exam in
Questions: First, describe your educational order to figure out my pathway to success. I tried
background, please. What were you like in to be meticulous in my planning, devised a daily
your childhood? time management scheme to stay consistent and
Answer: Sure, I belong to a military background obsessed with my preparation rather than the
due to which my family had to change stations outcome of the exam. Lastly, I believe positivity
every few years. This allowed me to attain of thought and ability to cope with challenges is
education at a diverse array of institutes in very important throughout the CSS journey.
different cities. I started my initial schooling at Question: What do you think is a tougher nut
SLS Rawalpindi, than studied in Army Public to crack; compulsories or optionals? Or
School Rawalpindi, Sialkot and Bahawalpur interview, for that matter?
sequentially. Lastly, I completed Bachelors in Answer: I believe the toughest nut to crack in
Dental Sciences from Army Medical College CSS is the English Essay, primarily due to the
Rawalpindi. unpredictability of its checking patterns. Certain
In terms of my childhood, I have fond memories optionals can be difficult as well if one is either
of my parents and grandparents. Early childhood not interested in subject matter or is unable to
years were spent in my native village of Chak 96 comprehend how to structure his or her answers
S.B Sargodha, which still invokes nostalgia for the for that exam. Interview preparation, in my
rural life. From what my family tells me about humble opinion, is not more difficult, just
my demeanor in childhood, I was energetic, different than written preparation. Here the mode
curious and welcoming of new faces of communication with examiner and traits that

0321 1114880
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are being tested change as compared to the focus Question:How important is paper presentation
of examination in the Written part. in written to get maximum marks?
Question: What is your primary goal in life Answer: Paper presentation is very important in
that pushed you towards CSS? getting a candidate good marks. A wel formatted
Answer: My primary goal in life is to leave my paper appears symmetric on first viewing and
people, my country and my religion in a stronger indicates to the examiner that the candidate is well
state than what I encountered it with. I do not prepared. Furthermore, candidates whose papers
want to be one of those individuals who sit on the are more easily readable due to the usage of
sidelines and criticize how others could have done illustrations, different pens/ shades and self
better. Rather like Theodore Roosevelt’s explanatory headings score higher marks than
proverbial ‘Man in the Arena’, I want to be the their peers.
one struggling to make the best decisions possible. Question: What is one advice that you would
Ultimately, I intent to contribute and play my part like to give to your younger self?
in building a conducive environment for Answer: I would like to tell myself that ‘Talent is
prosperous living and national development. nothing if it does not work hard’. However I
Success or failure to that end is in Allah’s hand, believe that the way life has taught me lessons
but the struggle in itself is my goal and I saw a such as these has left a more lasting impact than a
career in Civil service aligning with this vision. simple advice that I could have given to my
Question:"CSS yaa baher ke mulk ke nokri" is younger self.
a common question that our youth is asking
these days. How would you respond to this? Question: How did you prepare for English
Answer: The obvious divergence here is whether Essay and how did you tackle Précis and
to stay in Pakistan or look for greener pastures Composition Paper? Does rote learning help?
elsewhere. Undoubtedly, opportunities else where Answer: My strategy for English was based on
have become very lucrative in the backdrop of three pillars: Evaluated practice, increased
Pakistan’s economic crisis, but being citizens of a exposure to English language through reading/
third world nation, our collective needs and
writing and confidence building through mock
challenges are also significantly greater than those
around us. My father once told me that the greater exams. For both English Essay and Precis,
the challenge, the greater the opportunity - and practice is crucial. However, practice must be
CSS provides you with an opportunity to solve evaluated by a reliable mentor/ examiner so that
these challenges and meet these needs. one can incorporate feedback and iron out
However, I am also respectful of every mistakes. Similarly, reading good content and
individual’s right to make the most profitable writing regularly help candidate develop
decision for themselves but I would humbly
proficiency over language and polish creative
advise them that if possible, make such decisions
where your personal benefit dovetails with the writing skills. Lastly, mock exams help one gauge
collective benefit of your people as well. and improve his or her level in both exams prior
Question: How do you think should a fresh to sitting in the main exams.
candidate start preparing for CSS exam, right Rote learning has a limited role in CSS. For
from scratch? example one needs to memorize certain facts and
Ans: A fresh candidate should first set a resilient references to develop evidence based
mental approach to CSS. Subsequently, he or she argumentation. However, conceptual clarity and
should carefully dissect syllabus, conduct a creative writing are more important than rote
thorough past paper analysis and develop a memorization in CSS preparation.
suitable preparation plan. Now that they have set a Question: How did you respond to de-
path for themselves, they should consult diverse motivation and naysayers?
resources to gather requisite knowledge. At the Answer: I believe in staying positive and
tail end of their preparation, their focus should internally motivated. I detest self pity or looking
shift to mock exams and paper attempting outwards for motivation. To the naysayers, I can
techniques. only say thank you. When they criticize, it leads to
introspection. If they are right, they have pointed

0321 1114880
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out something that I can improve. If they are books so that your exposure to English language
wrong, they have regardless made me introspect increases. This enriches your knowledge base and
and evaluate myself. In both cases, I stand to also contributes to the maturity of your writing
benefit by developing myself and my personality. expression.
Lastly, a graceful individual would seldom waste How was your Interview Experience?
words on naysayers, rather his or her success Alhamdulilah my Interview experience was good.
would be his or her reply. The panel had come to FPSC Office Quetta and
Question: If you could go back in time and there were only three candidates on the day of my
change one thing about your CSS journey, interview. I was the second one and found the
what would it be? panel to be well read, engaging and courteous.
Answer: Maybe I would have dropped Sociology The questions were mostly based on analytical
as a subject and opted for some other subject, or ability, hence I was able to share my ideas with
tried to prepare Sociology better as I was not them and learn from them on a fair few subjects.
satisfied with the my preparation of said subject. All in all, it was an excellent learning opportunity.
Otherwise, the journey was a memorable time and Please share some questions asked as well as
I absolutely adored the hustle and struggle one has your answers and reaction of the interviewers.
to do throughout the journey. This will be especially helpful for those
Question: Some Suggestions on: appearing in interview.
Answer: Optional Subject Selection:
Interview Qs CSS Final Interview Talha Rafeeq
My approach towards subject selection was based
Alam:
on following five point criteria:
1. See if professional background gives 1. Why Civil Service
competitive edge in preparation of some 2. Your NGOs mandate and services
subject 3. Issues of Baluchistan in your opinion and
solutions - list the top three
2. Interest in subject matter
4. Why didnt you join Army
3. Comparison of Syllabi 5. Reasons why we couldnt develop a strong
4. Past Paper Analysis of post 2016 Past federal structure after partition, when Lahore
papers resolution demanded for a federal structure
6. Bill of Rights formulation ka background, why
5. Scoring Trends were they needed
As I am a doctor, I could not see any subject 7. Yalta Conference - UK interest and why did
giving me a competitive edge over other aspirants UK want USSR to join WW
hence I chose my subjects predominantly on my 8. Compare Ind Act 1947 with 3rd June Plan, are
interests. I ended up chosing humanities such as they the same or any differneces?
9.How do you see the attempts at breaking dollars
Political Science, Gender Studies, Sociology,
dominance, can you enlist what those attempts are
Criminology etc. One must keep in mind that a and why are they taking place now?
candidate’s interest in subject matter directly 10. What significance will a weak dollar have
dictates a candidate’s capacity to effectively globally
prepare the subject. With regards to scoring 11. When was gold standard abolished, why and
trends, I would advise you to prepare to such a what were its consequences?
level that your preparation renders the scoring 12. Why your NGO focuses on Edn and not
health?
trends irrelevant.
13. What is mandate of Pakistan Board of
Anything lifestyle or behavioural change that Philanthrphy?
you'd like to advise to the new aspirants? 14. Classify historical civilizations of Indus valley
It is better to tailor your life according to the according to histirical time periods
fundamentals of your CSS Preparation. For 15. What time period Mehrgarh belongs to
example, reading newspaper should become a 16. Islamic finance system - salient features.
lifestyle rather than a study task. Similarly, read

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Who motivated you to Parents and Personal ambition

pursue CSS?
No. of attempts 01
Information about other Allocated in PMS Punjab
competitive tests if any

Previous CSS Nil

Allocation (If any)
Your qualification Bachelors in Dental Surgery
Major subjects in Oral Surgery
Graduation and Oral Medicine
Master’s degree Orthodontics
Prosthodontics
Alma Mater Army Medical College
Schooling Medium English
Your Study Routine Followed Daily Time Management Scheme that I developed for myself, three 5
Hour sessions of study per day
Worst thing about CSS? Long, drawn out and time intensive process

Best thing about CSS? Develops different facets of one’s personality, none more so than heightened
awareness
Group Preferences 1. PAS
2. PSP
Reason for selecting Provide the best scope to serve my people, increased interaction with the Public
these specific groups and opportunities for horizontal and vertical mobility as avenues of career growth

Hobbies & 1. Reading Books

Extracurricular 2. Writing Blog/ Article
achievements 3. Playing Sports
Favourite Personality Prophet Muhammad PBUH
Favourite Book The Holy Quran
Favourite Quote “Excellence is a Habit, Mediocrity is a Sin and Success is a State of Mind”
Where do you see I see myself serving my people both as a Civil Servant and as a Social Worker. As
yourself in 10 years? a Civil Servant, I want to emerge as one of the brightest and best performing Civil
servants that have come to this system.
Why this specific Historically, PAS has had a rich legacy of service and administration. It offers an
group? individual the opportunity to serve in various tiers and stratas of the governance
apparatus while retaining an intimate connection with the public at large.

Your Secret of Success All success and failure is solely from Allah Almighty, one must only focus on
staying consistent and courageous while following a process of never ending
improvement.
Your Inspiration My religion, my family and my ideals

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17. Ishaq dars statement on Islamic finance and

impediments to making an Islamic economic
system here
18. Do Int Instirutions accept or recognise Islmic
finance principles or will we be cut off by
adopting Islmic finance principles in Pakistan?
19.Populism and anarchism are on the rise
globally, do you agree or disagree?
20. Who gave the origin of populism?
21. Is IK a populist?
22. Is his populism constructive or destructive?
23. Knowledge creation and transmission have
been revloutionized with AI and social media and
mass information, what can you do in this
climate?
24. Are Pakistani institutes prepared to tackle
issues arising from this revolution?
25. Books you have read on AI, most recent book
you have been reading, what is it about?
26. Compare Eurasia with the Americas
historically, Eurasia spanning from UK on one PROFILE
end to Japan on other? Why do Americas Personal Qs:
dominate global order today when histroical 1. Which group are you targetting, will you join a
development has been in Eurasia? group lower in the order?
27. Give three proposals to counter extremism 2. What is your plan B?
amd violence in society to the Govt
28. Khudi - explain in Urdu
29. Faiz ya ghalib ka shair suna dain, Iqbal ka koi Subject Marks
khudi ke illawa hai to wo suna dain and then you Essay 40
may leave
Précis & Composition 72
30. Tanveer sb stopped from leaving, wanted to
discuss Tribalism Vs Baluch nationalism in GSA 74
Baluchistan Current Affairs 51
Pakistan Affairs 40
Islamiat 56
Optional Subjects
Political Science 145
Criminology 69
Sociology 49
Gender Studies 81
US History 66
Total Written 743
Viva Voce 210
Grand Total 953

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