Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

DOI 10.1007/s11027-014-9611-2

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Plug-in electric vehicle market penetration and incentives:

a global review

Yan Zhou & Michael Wang & Han Hao & Larry Johnson &
Hewu Wang & Han Hao

Received: 8 April 2014 / Accepted: 23 September 2014

# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Abstract Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been commercially available in the global
market for about 3 years. Many countries have policies designed to stimulate consumer
acceptance and accelerate market adoption. In the United States (U.S.), the biggest PEV
market, sales have more than tripled since 2011. During the same period, PEV sales have
increased, albeit slowly, in most western European countries. Notably, some European coun-
tries, such as Norway, showed strong increases mainly owing to generous incentives to PEV
consumers. Japan is the second-largest PEV market in terms of number of vehicles sold. The
Nissan battery electric vehicle (BEV) Leaf is the top-selling PEV model, with more than
100,000 units sold globally since its launch in 2010. In contrast, after 3 years of policy
stimulation, PEV market share in China is still lower than 0.1 % of total car sales, and most of
these vehicles were purchased by either central or local governments. However, PEV bus
production in China has increased dramatically over last 3 years. These market trends, together
with strong government policies, show that national and regional PEV-related incentives in
selected countries can play an important role in jump-starting the PEV market.

Keywords Global vehicle sales . Government incentive policies . Plug-in electric vehicles .
Vehicle market penetration

1 Introduction

The transportation sector ranks high in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in
many countries. Consequently, several countries are promoting advanced technologies that can

Y. Zhou (*) : M. Wang : H. Hao

Systems Assessment Group, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass
Ave., Lemont, IL 60439, USA
e-mail: [email protected]

L. Johnson
Transportation Technology R&D Center, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Ave., Lemont, IL
60439, USA

H. Wang : H. Hao
State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

address rapidly growing energy demand and achieve sustainable transportation development.
Building upon conventional hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technologies, the introduction of
plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) for transportation represents one of the most promising
pathways for reducing oil and GHG emissions, as well as for improving local air quality.
Electric drive vehicles include various environmentally friendly vehicle technologies in
different countries. In this paper, we evaluate the sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
(PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) because they transfer part or all of the travel
from use of gasoline or diesel to grid electricity. Because HEVs have been in the market longer
and consequently have a much larger share of sales than the other two types, we will briefly
discuss HEV market status, as well. Here is the terminology used in this paper.

& EVs: any vehicle that uses energy drawn from the electric grid and stored onboard the
vehicle for some or all of its propulsion (i.e., PHEVs and BEVs).
& PHEVs: vehicles that use energy stored from the grid but also have an internal combustion
engine to provide driving range and vehicle power.
& BEVs: vehicles that use energy stored from the grid exclusively.
& HEVs: vehicles that generate all of their power onboard the vehicle.

Many countries have official targets for achieving a certain number of sales in the near
future and outline the steps to achieve the targets. Together, these targets for major markets add
up to annual sales of 5.9 million units and cumulative sales of PEV stock of 20 million units by
2020. Achieving these targets implies an annual compounded grow rate of more than 72 %
(EVI 2013). Thus, meeting these challenging targets will require governments to (1) support
research to develop advanced batteries and innovative technologies to enable reliable electri-
fication, (2) provide incentives to consumers to lower the purchase price and operation costs,
and (3) invest in large-scale infrastructure deployment to build consumers’ confidence.
The purpose of this paper is to (1) provide a comparison of the vehicle sales penetration
rates of PEVs in the major world markets, (2) compare PEV growth rates to earlier HEV
growth rates of selected regions, and (3) highlight key policies that can affect sales and
accelerate market penetration based on sales records for each of the countries or regions.

2 Fiscal incentives for PEV consumers

2.1 Federal PEV incentives in the USA

Electric drive vehicles received a major push with the United States (U.S.) Energy
Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2009, which raised the Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFÉ) standards to 54.5 mpg for model year (MY) 2025 (EPA 2012). To facilitate
market penetration of the most advanced vehicle technologies as rapidly as possible, the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is finalizing an incentive multiplier for PEVs sold in
MYs 2017 through 2021 to count as more than one vehicle in the manufacturer’s compliance
calculation. Electric vehicles (EVs) will start with a multiplier value of 2.0 in MY 2017,
phasing down to a value of 1.5 in MY 2021. PHEVs will start at a multiplier value of 1.6 in
MY 2017 and phase down to a value of 1.3 in MY 2021. There are no multipliers for MYs
2022–2025. Furthermore, the EPA is setting 0 g/mi as the tailpipe compliance value for EVs
and PHEVs (electricity usage) for MYs 2017–2021, with no limit on the quantity of vehicles
eligible for 0 g/mi tailpipe emissions accounting. For MYs 2022–2025, 0 g/mi will only be
allowed up to a per-company cumulative sales cap: (1) 600,000 vehicles for companies that
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

sell 300,000 EVs/PHEVs/fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in MYs 2019–2021 and (2) 200,000
vehicles for all other manufacturers. In 2012, the U.S. stimulus bill (the American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act) allocated $800 billion to create jobs and economic growth through
investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, including tax credits for the purchase
of PHEVs. Taxpayers who purchased PEVs in 2010 or afterward are eligible for a federal
income tax credit. The amount of the credit, between $2,500 and $7,500, will vary depending
on the capacity of the battery (4 to 16 kWh) used to power the vehicle. These tax credits will
phase out after 200,000 qualified vehicles per manufacturer have been sold for use in the U.S.
(IRS 2009). Until the end of 2013, General Motors has used more than 27 % of the 200,000
quota, following by Nissan with 21 %.

2.2 State-level PEV incentives in the USA

California (CA), which often leads the federal government in pursuing aggressive emission-
related regulation, has adopted a new approach: zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) regulations for
passenger vehicles by combining the control of smog-causing pollutants and GHG emissions
into a single coordinated package of standards (CA.Gov 2013). ZEV regulations are antici-
pated to result in 1.5 million ZEVs on the road by 2025 (i.e., 15 % of sales in 2025). Moreover,
California also offers free access to high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes and incentives for
charger purchase. California’s mix of financial and nonfinancial incentives means that the state
accounts for 40 % of PEV sales in the entire U.S. (Center for Sustainable Energy 2014).
Many states offer their own additional incentives, such as HOV lane exemptions and tax
credits/rebates, as summarized in Fig. 1 and Table 1 (AFDC 2014). West Virginia and
Colorado provide the highest incentives, both of which offer tax credits of $7,600 and
$6,000, respectively. Utility companies offer lower electric rates in some areas for those with
a separate meter for PEV charging. According to R.L. Polk & Company, an auto industry data
service firm, 52 % of PEVs in the country are based in these five U.S. cities: Atlanta (Georgia),
Los Angeles (CA), New York (New York), San Francisco (CA), and Seattle (Washington)

Tax Credits Sales and Use Tax Exemption

Reduced License Tax

Title Tax Exemption Reduced Registration Fee

Fig. 1 State-level PEV credits by state in the USA, updated to July 2013, indicate that 18 US states offer tax
credit incentives
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Table 1 PEV credits by U.S. state

Incentives State

HOV lane exemption Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia,

Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
North Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia
PEV purchase incentives: tax California, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Oklahoma,
credits and rebates South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia
Lower electric rates for residents with Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas,
a separate meter for PEV charging Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Virginia
Charging equipment/installation incentive Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana,
Maryland, Michigan, Tennessee, Texas
Vehicle inspection/emission Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North
testing exemption Carolina, Virginia
Parking incentives Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Nevada
Sales tax exemption New Jersey, Washington
Fuel tax exemption Wisconsin, Utah
Reduced license and/or use tax Arizona, Washington
Reduced registration fee Illinois, Iowa
Conversion tax credit Montana
Vehicle-to-grid energy credit Delaware
Idle reduction technology tax credit Colorado
Weight limit exemption Colorado
Title tax exemption District of Columbia
Reduced toll road rates New Jersey

(Loveday 2013). The reasons for the EV domination in big metropolitan areas include
numerous tax credits at both state and local levels, free access to parking spaces, and HOV
lanes.

2.3 National and regional EV policies in China

Because of significantly increasing demand in China for petroleum for vehicle energy (Huo
et al. 2012) and its air pollution in major metropolitan areas, China has strong motivations to
accelerate the deployment of alternative vehicles, with EVs as a priority focus. In addition,
newly implemented fuel consumption regulations with the target of achieving a fleet average
fuel consumption rate of 5 L/100 km by 2020 will encourage the adoption of electric drive
technologies (Hao et al. 2014). Since 2000, China has already invested more than 16 billion
Yuan ($2.6 billion U.S. dollars) in EV-related research and development (R&D) (Hao et al.
2011a). In the China Industry Development Plan of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles
issued in 2012, the Chinese State Council established the goal that the accumulated sales of
PEVs would reach 5 million in 2020 (CSC 2012).

Phase 1 subsidy: Starting in January 2009, China’s central government began to provide
subsidies for the purchase of EVs, targeting only purchases of vehicles used for public
service, such as taxis and transit buses. Subsidies initially covered 13 major cities that
were participating in the Ten Cities One Thousand Vehicles energy-saving and new
energy vehicle (NEVs) demonstration program. The second batch of seven cities and
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

third batch of five cities were added to the demonstration program afterward, increasing
the total number of cities to 25. In 2012, the subsidy for hybrid electric buses was
extended nationwide. The qualification of the subsidy amount was determined by two
main criteria: (1) fuel saving rate and (2) maximum electric power ratio. The fuel saving
rate is the percentage of fuel that could be saved by an NEV compared with the
conventional equivalent model built by the same manufacturer. For parallel hybrids, the
maximum electric power ratio stands for maximum motor power divided by the sum of
rated engine power and maximum motor power. The maximum motor power is estimated
by multiplying the rated motor power with a coefficient. For series hybrids, the maximum
electric power ratio is considered to be 100 %.
China initiated a pilot subsidy program in six cities for the private purchase of PEVs in
May 2010. Subsidies were based on each vehicle’s battery capacity, with the rate being
3,000 Yuan ($490) per kilowatt hour (kWh) toward any private PEV purchase. The
maximum subsidy for a PHEV is 50,000 Yuan ($8200) per vehicle, while BEVs can earn
a maximum subsidy of 60,000 ($9835) Yuan per vehicle. Qualified BEVs must have at
least 15 kWh of battery capacity, whereas qualified PHEVs should have no less than
10 kWh of battery capacity with an electric range (i.e., the distance driven in the charge-
depleting mode) of no less than 50 km (31.3 miles). In addition, electric vehicles equipped
with lead-acid batteries do not qualify for any subsidy.
At the same time, each city was also required to provide local subsidies and incentives for
private purchase, as summarized in Table 2. Some nonfinancial incentives are difficult to
quantify but provide great attraction to consumers who live in populated metropolitan
areas. For example, Beijing and Shanghai, China have set monthly ceilings on the number
of new vehicle license plates that each city will issue in an attempt to limit the number of
vehicles in the notoriously gridlocked cities (Hao et al. 2011b). The Shanghai municipal
authority released a certain number of license plates every month for auction with an
average selling price of 76,000 Yuan (about $12,600) in 2013 (Paizhao.com.cn 2014). In
Beijing, potential car buyers are required to participate in a vehicle license plate lottery

Table 2 Local incentive for the purchase of a new electric vehicle in China

City Subsidy and incentive

Shanghai 2,000 Yuan/kWh, maximum 20,000 Yuan/vehicle for PHEVs

and 40,000 Yuan/vehicle for BEVs; free registration and license
Changchun 20 % of purchase price, maximum 40,000 Yuan/vehicle for PHEVs
and 45,000 Yuan/vehicle for BEVs; free charger
Shenzhen Maximum 30,000 Yuan/vehicle for PHEVs and 60,000 Yuan/vehicle for BEVs
Hangzhou 1. PHEVs 2,000 Yuan/kWh for any battery capacity over 10 kWh,
maximum 30,000 Yuan/vehicle; BEVs 3,000 Yuan/kWh for any
capacity over 20 kWh, maximum 60,000 Yuan/vehicle.2. BEVs 0.09 Yuan/km
charging subsidy, up to 3 years or 60,000 km, whichever occurs first.3.
Cash for trade-in of conventional vehicles for an NEV purchase 3,000 Yuan/vehicle.
Hefei 1,000 Yuan/kWh, maximum 20,000 Yuan/vehicle
1. 15,000 Yuan/PHEV and 10,000 Yuan/BEV.2. Cash for trade-in of
conventional vehicles for an NEV purchase. 3,000 Yuan/vehicle.
Beijing 3,000 Yuan/kWh, maximum 50,000 Yuan/vehicle for PHEVs and
60,000 Yuan/vehicle for BEVs; lottery-free license
Chongqing 36,000 Yuan/vehicle for certain models (first 100 units), fee subsidy
for road/bridge tolls: 6,900 Yuan/vehicle
Table 3 China’s phase I and phase II EV incentives for both passenger vehicles and buses

Phase 1 Phase 2

Target market Public Private Public and private

Incentive duration 2009–2012 2010–2012 2013–2015
Incentive scope HEV, PHEV, and BEV PHEV and BEV PHEV and BEV

Subsidy standard HEV PV Up to 50,000¥

Bus Up to 420,000¥ (L>=10 m)
PHEV PV Up to 50,000¥ 3,000¥/kWh 35,000¥ (R>=50 km)
Bus Up to 420,000¥ (L>=10 m) 250,000¥ (L>=10 m)
BEV PV 60,000¥ 3,000¥/kWh 35,000¥ (80 km<R<150 km)
50,000¥ (150 km<R<250 km)
60,000¥ (R>=250)
Bus 500,000¥ (L>=10 m) 300,000¥ (6 m<L<8 m)
400,000¥ (8 m<L<10 m)
500,000¥ (L>=10 m)
SPV 2,000¥/kWh
Phase-out mechanism NA NA 10 % reduction in 2014
20 % reduction in 2015
Polit cities 25 cities 6 cities 28 cities and regions

1 US$=6.1 Chinese Yuan (¥)

R electric range, L length, SPV special purpose vehicle
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

system each month to obtain a purchase permit. Out of more than 1.74 million applicants,
only about 18,000 people won a license plate in the latest lottery held in November 2013
(Wei 2013). The Beijing municipal government recently decided to slash its new car
registration quota by 37.5 % over the next 4 years starting in 2014 and will give more
credit to new energy vehicles (to add 170,000) as part of its efforts to curb air pollution
(Wei 2013). Out of 600,000 license plates that will be issued in Beijing from 2014 to
2017, 170,000 will be dedicated to NEVs (including private and business vehicles)
(Beijing.gov.cn 2013). In Shanghai, PEV consumers can get a license plate for free
(Shanghai.gov.cn 2013). Becoming eligible for hassle-free registration and license in
Beijing and Shanghai could be a significant incentive for potential PEV buyers.
Phase 2 subsidy: After the phase 1 subsidy program expired at the end of 2012, China’s
central government began a phase 2 subsidy program in September 2013, which will
continue through 2015. Qualified vehicles include PHEVs, EVs, and FCVs. As of
December 2013, 28 metropolitan areas are covered in the phase 2 subsidy program, with
more cities to become involved in 2014.
The major difference between the phase 1 and phase 2 subsidy programs is the shift in the
basis for obtaining a subsidy from battery capacity to electric range. Furthermore,
compared with the subsidy in 2013, the subsidy for passenger vehicle purchase will be
reduced by 10 and 20 % in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The subsidy for commercial
vehicles will remain unchanged throughout the phase 2 subsidy program. Table 3 sum-
marizes China’s phase I and phase II NEV incentives for both passenger vehicles and
buses. Subsidies for FCVs are not included.

2.4 National and regional PEV policies in Japan

In 2009, the Japanese government released its New National Energy Strategy, which establishes
two goals for the transportation sector by 2030: (1) to improve the fuel efficiency of new vehicles
by 30 % and (2) to reduce petroleum dependency from more than 50 to 20 % (AMA 2009).
In the same year, Japan invested about 370 billion yen (about 3.7 billion USD) to further
increase subsidies and tax credits for environmentally friendly vehicles which include BEVs,
clean diesel vehicles, HEVs, natural gas vehicles, and other qualified vehicles with low fuel
consumption and low emissions. Subsidies for qualified purchase are 100,000 yen ($1,000) for
standard or small cars and 50,000 yen ($500) for mini vehicles. Consumers who trade in
gasoline vehicles that are more than 13 years old can receive subsidies that are 2.5 times higher
than consumers who simply buying a new car. In addition, EV buyers are eligible for the full
exemption from vehicle purchase tax and tonnage tax, as well as a 50 % reduction in
the automobile acquisition tax, which in total is approximately a 123,000 yen (about
$1,200) reduction for each vehicle. In addition, some provinces also provide local
incentives, such as dedicated parking and discounted tolls to EV drivers. In 2012,
Japan again allocated $300 million for eco car subsidies and tax credits, which
doubles the amount issued in 2010 (Foley 2013).
When the eco car subsidy program terminated at the end of 2012, a new program Clean
Energy started in May 2013 to continue to offer subsidies for the purchase of PEVs. However,
subsidies toward the purchase of a new PEV under the new program are reduced from 100,000
yen to a maximum of 85,000 yen ($850). The formula used to estimate purchase subsidies is
simple: two thirds of the price difference between the EV and a comparable gasoline car.
Exemptions from automobile acquisition tax and automobile weight tax and reduced annual
automobile tax are still available.
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Table 4 PEV incentives in selected European countries

Country EV/PHEV policy

Norway BEVs: Zero purchase tax (worth $11,000), exemption from 25 % VAT
(value-added tax) on purchase, zero road tax, free public parking,
waived toll payments, and free access to bus lanes
PHEVs: 15 % purchase tax reduction
Netherlands BEVs/PHEVs: Total exemption of registration fee and road taxes
(a better tax structure for BEVs will be available in 2014)
Sweden BEVs/PHEVs: Subsidy of $6,100 for purchase of vehicles with CO2
emissions of a maximum of 50 g/km; exemption from the annual
circulation tax for a period of 5 years from the first registration
France Up to $9,570 for the purchase of new cars with CO2 emissions
of 60 g/km or less but capped at 30 % of the vehicle price (tax included)
Denmark BEVs: Exemption from purchase tax (180 % for conventional vehicles)
and environment tax ($2,290/year); free public parking in selected cities
Germany BEVs/PHEVs: Exemption from the annual circulation tax for a period
of 10 years from the date of their first registration
Austria Exemption of fuel consumption tax and the quarterly vehicle tax;
waived NoVA tax (a first-time registration fee)
UK A total of 25 % off the cost of a plug-in car, up to a maximum of $8,100
A total of 20 % off the cost of a van up to a maximum of $13,000
Exemption from London congestion charge ($4,000/year)
Exemption of road tax
Spain Subsidy of up to 25 % of the purchase price, before tax, to a maximum
of US$8,600 per vehicle and 25 % of the gross purchase price of other
electric vehicles such as buses and vans, with a maximum of $20,500
or $41,000, depending on the range and type of vehicle
Italy Exemption from the annual circulation tax or ownership tax for 5 years
from the date of their first registration (about a 75 % reduction in tax
compared with conventional counterparts)

2.5 PEV policies in selected European countries

Most Western European countries have incentives for PEV buyers, as summarized in Table 4
(Tesla Motors 2014; Clean Vehicle Europe 2014; EVConsult 2013; Gov.UK 2014). Incentives
that have expired or are toward company vehicle purchase are not included. The country with
the most generous EV incentives and highest PEV market share in the world is Norway. In
2008, energy-rich Norway signed the Agreement on Climate Policy (klimaforliket), which
committed the county to a GHG reduction target of 44 million tons (Gt) of CO2e per year by
2020 (Beka et al. 2012). The goal set by the Norwegian Parliament is to reach having 50,000
ZEVs on the road by 2018 (Elbil 2014). As the most electric car-friendly country on the planet,
Norway waived nonrecurring vehicle fees, including sales tax, for BEVs. This zero-tax policy
is worth almost US$11,000, or $1,400/year (over a car’s 8-year lifetime), and has had the result
that BEVs are priced no higher than conventional vehicles in Norway (Doyle and Adomaitis
2013). BEVs are also exempted from the annual road tax, all public parking fees, and toll
payments, and BEV drivers are also able to use bus lanes. Prior to June 2013, PHEVs were not
eligible for these benefits because the Norwegian tax system levies higher taxes on heavier
vehicles. PHEVs are more expensive (and heavier) than are similar conventional cars because
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

of the extra weight of the battery pack and its additional electric components. As of July 2013,
PHEVs are eligible for a 15 % tax reduction. However, Norway’s intensifying demand for
electric cars may end sooner than expected. Incentives will be withdrawn, or reconsidered,
when 50,000 zero-emission cars have been registered or in 2018, whichever comes first. At the
current rate of sales, the 50,000 figure could be reached in the middle of 2015.

3 PEV sales in selected global markets

According to the International Energy Agency, as of 2012, 180,000 PEVs around the globe
were on the road, representing 0.02 % of all passenger cars (EVI 2013). Global PEV sales
doubled between 2011 and 2012 and will likely nearly double again in 2013 (Wang and
Ouyang 2007; Du et al. 2013). Paralleling the increase in sales is the number of models being
offered. However, PEV adoption rates vary dramatically by country owing to different levels of
the various governments’ financial support and the diverse structures of the incentives. The
USA, certainly the biggest market for PEVs, represented 70 % of global PHEV sales and 26 %
of global BEV sales in the 2012 PEV market (EVI 2013). Japan claimed the second spot with
12 % of the PHEV market and 28 % of the BEV market on a global basis. Countries showing
the highest rates of growth from 2012 to 2013 were the Netherlands (338 %), Norway (129 %),
Germany (105 %), and the USA (83 %) (ANL 2014; AID Newsletter 2014). Consumer PEV
market share of total car sales in China is still lower than 0.1 % after 3 years of implementing
policies to stimulate sales. However, PEV bus production has grown dramatically over the last
3 years in China.
To put the global PEV market into perspective, Fig. 2 shows that HEVs overwhelmingly
dominate the e-drive market. And, it is Japan and the USA that account for most of the HEV
market. HEV technology has been in the marketplace for 15 years, while BEVs and PHEVs
are emerging technologies. Although the PEV numbers are small, in the USA especially, they

Fig. 2 HEV, BEV, and PHEV annual sales and market share (of new car sales) comparison between the U.S.,
Japan, and Europe
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

PHEV

BEV

Fig. 3 Annual sales of new plug-in vehicles, shown by model, almost doubled in the U.S. from 2012 to 2013

are increasing at a faster rate than HEVs when they were first introduced. Note that sales of
PEVs in China are so small that they do not show on this chart. And, the data we had for
Europe did not distinguish between BEVs and PHEVs, so the combined sales are shown with
one bar.
Newly updated global sales confirmed that Nissan Leaf has again taken the lead for the
best-selling PEV model in 2013 with more than 100,000 units sold globally since its launch in
2010 (Nissan News 2014). Other top-selling models globally include the Chevrolet Volt, Tesla
Model S, Toyota Prius Plug-in, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Renault ZOE, Ford C-Max

Fig. 4 Monthly sales of new plug-in vehicle sales of PHEVs and BEVs has risen steadily since 2010 in the U.S.
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Energi, Renault Kangoo ZE, Ford Fusion Energi, and Volvo V60 Plug-in, etc. (AID Newsletter
2014). Although the PEV market is still in its infancy stage with relatively small sales and
market share levels compared to those of conventional vehicles, the growth rates in many
countries outpaced the first 3 to 4 years of conventional hybrid technologies.

3.1 Sales in the U.S.

The U.S. is the largest PEV market in the world in terms of number of vehicles sold. U.S.
government incentives have produced strong market growth. Three years after PEVs first
debuted in the U.S. market in December 2010, there are now 16 models available for
consumers, an increase from 11 in 2012 and 4 in 2011. A total of 97,102 PEVs were sold
during 2013 (49,008 PHEVs and 48,094 BEVs), almost double the sales in 2012 when 53,169
units sold, as shown in Fig. 3. Figure 4 shows monthly PEV sales by model. For comparison,
17,763 units were sold in 2011, whereas only 326 Volts and 19 Leafs were sold in 2010, the
first year of the U.S. PEV market (the total vehicles are barely visible for 2010 in Fig. 3). A
couple of key milestones were achieved in 2013: (1) cumulative sales since market introduc-
tion exceeded 100,000 units by May 2013 and (2) the annual PEV share of the passenger car
market passed 1 %.
The three dominant PEV models are the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, and Tesla Model S,
which together constitute over two thirds of the market share. The Volt remains the best-selling
PEV in the U.S. with almost 55,000 units sold cumulatively, that is, since market introduction
(Fig. 3). The Leaf (more than 42,000) and the Tesla Model S (almost 22,000) finished second
and third in the U.S. with many more sold globally. By the end of 2013, on a cumulative basis,
168,379 PEVs were sold in the USA, including 72,790 BEVs and 95,989 PHEVs.
At the end of the third year after market introduction, the share of sales of PEVs was
1.25 %, up from 0.71 % in 2012. By comparison, after HEVs were first introduced into the
U.S. market in 1999 (referred to as generation 1 HEV), Fig. 5 shows that it took 5 years for
HEVs to exceed 1 % of new car sales. By comparison, market share growth rates for the
generation 1 PEV in its first 3 years (2010–2013) outpaced the growth rates of conventional

Generation 3 HEV

Recession hit

Tax credit Generation 2 HEV

extended for Prius,
Prius price cut
Incentives started
to fade for Prius

Incentives started

Generation 1 PEV
Generation 1 HEV

Fig. 5 The market share comparison between introduction of HEVs and PEVs shows generation 1 PEV sales
(starting in 2010) outpacing those of generation 1 HEVs (starting in 1999)
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hybrid technologies in their first 5 years (1999–2004) and are comparable to the growth rates
in the fifth to 11th years (2004–2009) of the HEV market when the generation 2 HEV was
available (Fig. 5). However, hybridization technologies were new to consumers back in those
earlier years. PEVs had the advantage of hybrid vehicle technologies having been available for
10 years, so there was a certain level of consumer acceptance of (or comfort level with) a
vehicle having two power plants onboard. In addition, 2010–2013 PEV sales are incentivized
while the process of incentivizing HEV purchases did not started until 2004. Figure 4 also
shows how economic factors influence the growth rates of the three generations of HEVs.
Government incentives have strong impacts on sales in the early years. After several years,
government and company incentives started to have less of an impact on sales growth. Tax
credits and price cuts have very positive effects, whereas recessions have a very negative
impact. It should be anticipated that these same factors will have similar effects on the PEV
market once the influence of consumers characterized as early adopters of new technology has
passed.

3.2 Sales in China

In China, the term NEV covers HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Tsinghua University (Beijing,
China) compiles and provides NEV production data relating to both passenger vehicles and
commercial vehicles. These production numbers are very similar to the NEV sales in China
because so far almost all purchases made are of domestically produced NEV models by either
central or local governments. Because of this government procurement policy, we calculated
market share using production data in this paper. The first NEV introduced into the Chinese
market was the generation 2 Prius (an HEV), which was assembled in China in 2005. In 2007,
the first HEV bus was manufactured in China. NEV bus production, mainly HEVs, increased
to about 3,000 in 2009 and to about 7,000 in 2010. After that, NEV bus production has
experienced steady increases. These gains were boosted by the 2008 Beijing Olympic games
and the 2009 central government-sponsored Ten Cities One Thousand Vehicles EV demon-
stration program (Du et al. 2013; Gong et al. 2013).
The early domestic BEV cars were manufactured by Chery and Zotye in January 2010 with
a total of 45 units sold in that month. As shown in Fig. 6, NEV passenger cars (3,773 units)

Fig. 6 Annual NEV passenger car production and market share show steady increases in production volumes
from 2010 to 2013 in China
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Fig. 7 Annual NEV bus production and market share also show steady increases from 2007 to 2013 in China

account only for 0.03 % of the 13.9 million cars produced in 2010. The production volume
rapidly increased to 19,000 in 2012 and further climbed to 39,000 in 2013. The corresponding
NEV share of total car production reached 0.22 % in 2013. Note that in 2011 and 2012, BEVs
dominated the NEV market with a share of 72 % in 2011 and 56 % in 2012. Then, with more
HEVs sold, PEV share decreased to 38 % in 2013 (15,004 units), even though two new PHEV
models were introduced in December 2013 with 192 units sold.
Even though its market introduction was in 2008, commercial BEV production volume was still
under 500 units in 2010. However, within a year after the central government’s EV demonstration
project, the number of BEV cars sold passed 1,000 units in 2011 in addition to 1,500 units in PHEV
bus production. By the end of 2013, cumulatively more than 30,000 commercial NEVs (large buses
with lengths greater than 10 m long) have been manufactured, including 20,000 HEV buses, 4,400
PHEV buses, and 5,600 BEV buses. As shown in Fig. 7, in 2013, HEV buses dominated the
commercial NEV market with a share of 67.2 %. BEV and PHEV buses split the rest of the market
with shares of 32.8 and 14.4 %, respectively. When PEV buses are added together with HEV buses,

Fig. 8 HEV and PHEV production in China shows growing shares for HEV cars and BEV cars from 2011
through 2013 (cumulative production applies only to the line chart)
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

the NEV bus market share of total large-size bus production reached a record high, 13.2 %, in 2013.
The significant increase in 2012 resulted from the annual evaluation of the EV demonstration
program at the end of 2011. Cities that failed to meet the goal were warned by the central
government, which led to dramatic production increases in 2012 and 2013.
During the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, 595 domestically produced NEVs were in use,
including mainly HEV buses and cars. Figure 8 shows monthly and yearly NEV production by
type in China since 2005. By the end of 2010, the NEV stock doubled in number over 2009,
reaching 16,882 units. In 2011, production rose to 29,705 units, up by 77 % over 2010. In the
subsequent 2 years, NEV stock surged to 58,000 and 110,000, respectively. The PEV (bus and
car) share of total NEV production increased from 20 % in 2010 to 41 % in 2013.
New energy passenger cars constitute most of the fleet increase since 2012, as shown in Fig. 8. In
2010, the difference between passenger NEV stock and commercial NEV stock was about 1,500
units. The gap increased to 15,000 units by the end of 2012 and then further to 44,000 units by the
end of 2013. The new energy passenger car share of total NEV stock reached 68 % in 2013.
Three years after market introduction, plug-in passenger vehicles (cars) are still struggling
with a market share of less than 0.1 % of vehicle sales. When PEVs are added to HEVs, the
market share of total car sales still only reaches 0.22 %. Most of the purchases were made by
central and local governments to be used as government vehicles or taxis. The reasons behind
the slow sales for these models include (1) high purchase price, even with government
incentives, and (2) a lack of infrastructure to support dedicated public or home charging.

3.3 Sales in Japan

Japan has long been the pioneer in electric vehicle research and development. The term eco car in
Japan includes HEVs, PHEVs, EVs, FCVs and qualified low-emission vehicles. The sales figures
shown here include only HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs. There is no way to discuss EV sales in Japan
without mentioning HEVs because they have captured more than 20 % of annual passenger car sales
in Japan since 2012. After its introduction into the Japanese market by Toyota in 1997, the Prius has
continued to be the best-selling HEV model not only in Japan but also globally. Generation 2 and
generation 3 Prius models debuted in 2004 and 2009, respectively, providing consumers with higher
fuel efficiency with even lower prices. HEV sales first surged in 2009 as a result of massive
incentives and subsidies to buyers and tax breaks to manufacturers launched by the Japanese central
government in April of that year. The share of HEV car sales out of total new car sales jumped from
0.23 % in 2008 to 7.53 % in 2009. Currently, the top-selling HEV models in Japan include Toyota
Prius and Aqua and Nissan Serena.
Recent spikes in PEV development started in the early 2000s in Japan because of challenges
that are similar to the ones facing many other countries, namely, rapidly rising energy demand
and air pollution. The Japanese government has set a market share target of 15–20 % of new car
sales by PHEVs and EVs by 2020 (METI 2010). In 2009, Mitsubishi Motors introduced
Japan’s first BEV, the i-MiEV, for the global market with 1,400 units sold in that year to fleet
customers and to the public the following year. Shortly after that, Fuji Heavy Industries and
Nissan launched rival EV models. As of October 2013, there are four EV and three PHEV
models available in the Japanese market. Because of data limitations, we have reliable sales data
after January 2011 only. The annual share of PEV sales out of total car sales in Japan increased
from 0.3 % in 2011 to 0.45 % in 2012 and then reached 0.58 % in 2013. Total 28,716 units
(14,595 EVs and 14,122 PHEVs) were sold in 2013, up 39 % from 2012. When PEV sales are
added to HEVs, the total eco car share of total car sales was close to 25 % in October 2013.
Nissan Leaf has been the best-selling PEV model since 2011 and is very likely to continue with
the lead in 2013, as 10,480 units have been sold in the first 10 months.
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Fig. 9 PEV sales and eco car market share for 2011–2013 in Japan show the influence of the incentive,
Fukushima earthquake in 2011, and the Mitsubishi accidents in 2013

Exogenous factors can have dramatic effects on new car sales. As Fig. 9 shows, eco car
sales declined 47.3 % after the Fukushima earthquake but experienced a significant increase
later in 2011 when the government extended the original subsidy program to May 2012 and
subsequently to the end of 2013 (the purchase tax exemption had expired in March 2012,
which had caused a decline in sales). After that, a new subsidy program was released, and new
PHEV models were introduced into the market. In March 2013, two i-MiEVs caught fire on
two separate occasions; as a result, the sales declined rapidly in the following month.
Mitsubishi did not issue a recall but halted production and sales until August 2013.

Average: 0.34%

Fig. 10 Yearly PEV sales by country in Western Europe show steady growth, particularly in France, Norway, the
Netherlands, Germany, and the UK
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

3.4 Sales in Western Europe

Western European PEV sales data was collected from the Europe Automotive Industry Newsletter
(AID Newsletter 2014). The first PEV car, i-MiEV, was introduced into the European market by
Mitsubishi in December 2010. Although PEVs have been in the European market for 3 years, the
average annual PEV share of total passenger cars in Western Europe is just 0.34 % of the new car
market in 2013. Nevertheless, as shown in Fig. 10, PEV models are gaining traction as PEV sales
doubled in 2012 and then went up by 59 % in 2013, with a total of 38,466 units sold. The largest
PEV market in Europe is France, which accounts for 22.8 % of the total European PEV market
with a total of 8,779 units sold in 2013. Norway and Germany took second and third place, with
shares of 20.5 % (7,882 units) and 16.7 % (6,411 units), respectively.
Cumulatively, in 2013, there were 38,617 PEVs registered in more than 15 European
countries, of which Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, and France are the leaders in sales.
Owing to its generous vehicle tax treatment and friendly consumer regulations, Norway has by
far the highest PEV market share in the world—more than 5 % of passenger car sales, as
shown in Fig. 11. Top-selling PEV models include the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, Renault
ZOE, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Citroen C-Zero, Peugeot Ion, and Ford Focus. The Nissan Leaf is
the best-selling model in most Western European countries, except in France and Germany
where the Renault ZOE leads in sales. December of 2013 was a record month for EV sales
mainly because of a bullish expansion in the Netherlands, where there was a last-minute rush
for ultra-low-emission cars before an attractive tax savings expired at the end of 2013.

4 Summary

Sales from these four global markets (the U.S., China, Japan, and Western Europe) indicated
that incentives and regulations can have strong positive impacts on rates of PEV market
penetration. These are summarized as follows:

Fig. 11 Monthly PEV market shares of passenger car sales in Western Europe show France, Norway, the
Netherlands, and Germany accounting for 40,000 of 55,000 vehicles sold (December 2013)
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

4.1 Incentives

Government incentives have had very positive impacts on sales growth in early years. Energy-rich
Norway has used the most extensive list of incentives to push PEVadoption, especially for BEVs, to
achieve GHG emission reductions. Financial incentives such as subsidies or tax credits reduce the
purchase cost for consumers. Norway sets a good example by making PEVs as affordable as
conventional counterparts. In addition, in the U.S., the growth rates of incentivized PEV sales in the
first 3 years are comparable to HEV sales during the period beginning in 2004 when government
started to provide incentives. Japan’s PEV sales fluctuated between up and down depending on
whether the incentive(s) would be expired or not. PEV sales in the Netherlands soared in the last
month before an attractive tax savings incentive was about to expire. A mix of nonfinancial
incentives, such as free parking, free HOV/bus lane access, or free license plates, is also bearing
fruit not only in Norway and Japan but also in highly populated cities in China and the U.S.

4.2 Numerical targets

Setting numerical sales targets to be reached by certain years can act as catalysts to help focus
research and policies that could accelerate market penetration. For example, PEV bus produc-
tion significantly increased in China after the central government released Ten Cities One
Thousand Vehicles program. In order to reach the numerical targets, many countries—not only
China but also Japan and the USA—initiated a mix of incentives and regulations to stimulate
sales, although not always successful in reaching the intended targets.

4.3 Regulations

Both emission-related regulations and user-related regulations have positive impacts on PEV
sales. Emission standards and regulations issued by both the US federal government and
California government provide generous credits to PEV manufacturers who, in turn, must sell
more qualified low-emission vehicles. The strict emission regulations in California are an
important reason why this state has been the leader in PEV adoption, accounting for about
40 % of US PEV sales (Center for Sustainable Energy 2014). User regulations, also known as
nonfinancial incentives, were discussed under immediately above Sect. 4.1.
Historical HEV sales indicate that the positive influences brought about by policies will
diminish as time passes. After that, price cuts offered by manufacturers would help. Both HEV
and PEV sales showed that exogenous factors, such as technical incidents and economic
recession, can have dramatic negative effects on new car sales.

5 Conclusions

PEVs offer the potential for significant energy and environmental benefits. Policymakers in
many countries have implemented government incentives and/or adopted regulations intended
to accelerate the market penetration of PEVs and thereby hasten the societal benefits. But what
works in one part of the world may not work as well in another region. Or, several incentives
may be needed to work together in order to maximize PEV sales. Now that these incentives
and regulations have been in effect for several years, there is historical data available to
determine what works and what does not. For anyone interested in climate mitigation strategies
or oil reduction strategies, this paper does just that for four major automotive markets: the U.S.,
China, Japan, and Western Europe.
 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

To stimulate sales of PEVs, national and local governments have devised a range of major
financial and nonfinancial incentives. Countries with higher PEV penetration rates have
implemented generous approaches to credits and tax treatments (i.e., financial incentives), as
well as user-friendly (i.e., nonfinancial) regulations, such as in Norway and Japan. Sales in the
four major global markets—the U.S., China, Japan, and Western Europe—showed that major
policies such as incentives and regulations can have strong positive impacts on PEV market
penetration. However, same policies do not work in different regions due to other exogenous
reasons; such as, no dedicated parking for potential PEV consumers could be a barrier for
noncommercial PEV adoption in China.
PEV sales and corresponding market share levels in the last 3 years are also summarized for
the four major global markets. In the U.S., Norway, and the Netherlands, the share of PEV
passenger cars has exceeded 1 % of the new car market for the first time. Although the PEV
market is far from taking off as many had earlier predicted, the growth rates in the 3 years since
market introduction are similar to the growth rates when HEVs were in the fifth through 11th
years of rollout mainly because of massive governmental incentives, regulations, and existing
customer acceptance of hybridization technologies. Both federal and state-level PEV-related
incentives and emission regulations in selected countries, especially countries with relatively
higher PEV market shares, are highlighted.
Although policies are aiding in the near term, eventually, their implementation will come to
an end. After all HEV subsidies were phased out in 2010 in the U.S., its sales continued to
increase and began to penetrate the mass market (with a more than 6 % market share). Sales
data indicate that it may take PEVs fewer years to reach the same level of market share as
HEVs did. Subsidies to lower upfront purchase cost have proven to be an effective measure for
achieving widespread market penetration in Norway, Japan, and some US states. Future
research questions include whether governments should invest more in fundamental research,
robust infrastructure network development, or vehicle purchase incentives.

Acknowledgments The submitted manuscript has been created by UChicago Argonne, LLC, Operator of
Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Argonne, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science laboratory,
is operated under Contract No. DE-AC02-06CH11357. The US Government retains for itself, and others acting
on its behalf, a paid-up nonexclusive, irrevocable worldwide license in said article to reproduce, prepare
derivative works, distribute copies to the public, and perform publicly and display publicly, by or on behalf of
the Government. The efforts of Yan Zhou, Michael Wang, and Larry Johnson of Argonne National Laboratory
are supported by the Vehicle Technology Office, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office. The authors
would like to thank Mr. Anant Vyas of Argonne National Laboratory for his earlier HEV/PEV data collection
efforts and helpful comments. The efforts of Hewu Wang and Han Hao were supported by the Ministry of
Science and Technology of China, under contact Nos. 2011DFA60650, 2012DFA81190, and 2013BAG06B02.

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