Binomial Model
Binomial Model
Arun Kumar
IIT Ropar
7 American Option
8 The Greeks
9 References
What is an equity option ?
Why hedging ?
• Buying a stock is a risky investment.
• Buying a call option on that stock is also risky.
• Combining the stock with the option can produce an investment that is risk free.
Delta hedging
The number of units of the stock required per option is known as the ∆ (Delta) of the
stock and taking these positions to create a risk-free investment is known as Delta
Hedging.
Arbitrage
Definition (Arbitrage)
The simultaneous buying and selling of a security at two different prices in two different
markets, resulting in profits without risk. Perfectly efficient markets present no arbitrage
opportunities. Perfectly efficient markets seldom exist, but, arbitrage opportunities are
often precluded because of transactions costs.
Example
As a hypothetical example, if Infosys stock trades at Rs 790 on the National Stock
Exchange (NSE) and at Rs 800 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), an investor
could guarantee a profit by purchasing the stock on the NSE and simultaneously
selling the same amount of stock on the BSE.
Payoffs from equity and call option
p p
S c
(1 (1
−p −p
) )
dS (dS − K )+ = cd
Suppose that we buy ∆ units of the stock and sell one call at time t = 0. The portfolio
value will be ∆uS − (uS − K )+ if equity price moves up and ∆dS − (dS − K )+ if
equity price moves down at time t = 1.
∆uS − cu
p
∆S − c
(1 − p)
∆dS − cd
t=0 t=1
Option pricing
∆dS − cd ∆uS − cu
∆S − c = = ,
1+r 1+r
which implies after substitution of value of ∆
1 1+r −d u−1−r
c= cu + cd
1+r u−d u−d
1
= (p̃cu + (1 − p̃)cd ), (1)
1+r
(1+r −d)
where p̃ = (u−d)
.
• If c is not so, there will be an arbitrage opportunity.
• Interestingly in option price formula the probability term p doesn’t appear.
An example
• Suppose the current price of the underlying stock is 100 and at the end of three
months it has either risen to 175 or has fallen to 75.
• Consider an at-the-money call option on this stock with a strike price of 100 with
expiry after 3 months.
• Suppose for 3-months risk free rate of interest is 25% (or 100% annual).
Find u, d, r and p̃ ?
u = 1.75, d = .75, r = .25, p̃ = 1/2.
What is ∆ ?
cu −cd
∆ = S(u−d) = 3/4.
• Consider again the same example, where the price of the underlying stock is 100
initially and at the end of 3 months it has either risen to 175 or fallen to 75.
• Consider an European call option of strike price 100.
• the payoff of the call option in up state is 75 and payoff in the down state is 0 and
the option will not be exercised.
• Consider buying ∆ unit of the stock and investing B units of fund at risk free
interest rate of 25% for 3-months (or 100% annualized).
175∆ + (1 + 1/4)B
p
100∆ + B
(1 − p)
75∆ + (1 + 1/4)B
t=0 t=1
Replicating portfolio
175∆ + (1 + 1/4)B 75
p p
100∆ + B c
(1 − p) (1 − p)
75∆ + (1 + 1/4)B 0
• Thus option can be replicated by borrowing 45 and buying 3/4 units of the stock.
• Due to no-arbitrage principle the portfolio that replicates the call option will have
same price as the call itself that is c = ∆S + B.
• Hence the price of the call is c = 30 which is same as the previous case.
If c ̸= ∆S + B, we have arbitrage
• Buy the 3/4 shares from the market with amount 75 × 3/4 = 56.25 and return to
the person from whom the equity was borrowed for short sell.
• Borrow the remaining 35 from the bank with interest rate 0.25 for the period. This
is a zero investment portfolio.
If there is an up movement, at maturity, we will have the following:
• The call option will be exercised and we give the 3/4 share we bought at strike
price 100. Further, we buy the remaining 1/4 shares from the market with price
175/4 = 43.75. In this process, we recive the strike price of the option, which is
100.
1
c= (p̃cu + (1 − p̃)cd ),
1+r
(1+r −d)
where p̃ = (u−d)
.
• Here the value of the call option is the present value of the weighted average of
the call at maturity.
• The value of the call is present value of p̃cu + (1 − p̃)cd and is valued as if this
payoff was risk-free.
Risk-neutral probability
The risk-neutral probability is that probability under which expected returns on all the
model’s assets are the same.
Dividend yield and continuous compounding
Dividend yield
Suppose the equity pays a dividend with dividend yield q for the period. Then we
calculate the risk-neutral probabilities as follows:
which implies
1 + (r − q) − d
p̃ = .
u−d
Continuous compounding
For continuous compounding, the risk neutral probability become for no-dividend
(er − d)
p̃ = .
(u − d)
(er −q − d)
p̃ = .
(u − d)
d <1+r <u
In a one period Binomial model, we always have d < 1 + r < u, otherwise there will be
an arbitrage opportunity.
Proof.
• Suppose d ≥ 1 + r , this mean in up and down moment both equity return is
higher than the risk free rate.
• Thus, we buy the equity after borrowing S0 from bank.
• After one period total payoff will be more than or equal to dS0 − (1 + r )S0 , which
is a non-negative quantity.
• Hence d ≥ 1 + r leads to an arbitrage opportunity, which is not possible in
efficient markets.
• Similarly, by doing short selling, we prove that 1 + r ≥ u is not possible.
Remark
The no-arbitrage condition for continuous compounding for a dividend paying stock will
be
d < er −q < u.
Example
The current price of a certain non-dividend-paying stock is $100 per share. Suppose
the price of this stock is modeled at the end of a quarter year using a one-period
binomial tree under the assumption that the stock price can either increase by 4%, or
decrease by 2%.The continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 3%. What is
the price of a three-month, at-the-money European call option on the above stock ?
Solution: We have the following
• r = 0.03/4 = 0.0075.
• u = 1.04 and d = 0.98.
• S = 100 and K = 100.
• cu = 4 and cd = 0.
• The risk neutral probability is p̃ = e.0075 −0.98
1.04−0.98
= 0.4588.
• Thus option price c = e−.0075 (0.4588 × 4) = 1.82149.
Equivalent Martingale Measure (EMM)
Definition (EMM)
The probability measure Q is an EMM of P if St is a Q-martingale, that is
EQ ST = S0
and Q is equivalent to P,
P(ω) > 0 ⇐⇒ Q(ω) > 0
for all elementary events ω ∈ Ω.
How to find risk neutral probabilities
Under risk neutral probabilities the discounted value of expected cash flows is equal to
the actual value of the underlying asset.
Example (Revisiting the example)
175 75
p̃ p̃
100 c
(1 (1
− p̃) − p̃)
75 0
Stock cash-flows Option cash-flows
• Under risk neutral probabilities the expected value of the stock at the end of period
is 175p̃ + 75(1 − p̃).
• So the expected present value is 175p̃+75(1−p̃)
1+1/4
.
• This is equal to the actual value of the stock that is 100, which implies p̃ = 1/2.
• Thus option value is 75∗1/2+0∗1/2
1+1/4
= 30.
Two-Period Binomial Model
Two-period Binomial model
Suu
p
Su
p (1
− p)
S Sud = Sdu
(1 p
−
p)
Sd
(1 −
p)
Sdd
Example
306.25
p
175
p (1
−
p)
100 131.25
(1 p
−
p)
75
(1
−
p)
56.25
Finding value of call at intermediate steps
206.25
p̃
cu
p̃ (1
−
p̃)
c 31.25
(1 p̃
−
p̃)
cd
(1
−
p̃)
0
• The value of the call at the intermediate nodes can be found by using
delta hedging method or risk free rate and underlying asset method or by using
risk neutral valuation method.
• The risk neutral method is simple because the node probabilities are same for
different periods.
• Hence cu = 0.5×206.25+0.5×31.25 = 95
1+1/4
• cd = 0.5×31.25+0.5×0
1+1/4
= 12.5
Finding value of call at time 0
206.25
0 .5
95
5
0. 0.5
c 31.25
0.5 0.5
12.5
0 .5
0
• Again using the similar steps as earlier, we can find the no-arbitrage price of call
option.
• c = 0.5×95+0.5×12.5 = 43.
1+1/4
• Alternatively, c = 0.5×0.5×206.25+2×0.5×0.5×31.25+0.5×0.5×0
(1+1/4)2
= 43.
Converting into formula
(Suu − K )+
p̃
cu
p̃ (1
−
p̃)
c (Sud − K )+
(1 p̃
−
p̃)
cd
(1
−
p̃)
(Sdd − K )+
1+r −d
where p̃ = u−d
.
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) model
CRR model
Model setup
• CRR model is based on the assumption of a binomial model.
• It can be interpreted as a numerical method to solve the Black-Scholes equation.
• we discretize time and consider points in time such that
t0 = 0, t1 = ∆, t2 = 2∆, ..., tn = n∆ = T with ∆ = Tn .
• For large n, the option price from CRR model and Black-Scholes model will be
approximately same.
• By choosing
√
√
1 (er ∆ − d) 1 1 1 ∆
u = eσ ∆
, d= , p̃ = ≈ + (r − σ 2 ) ,
u (u − d) 2 2 2 σ
in Binomial model, we get the CRR model, where σ is volatility term in the model.
A working example
√ √
• We have ∆ = T /n = 0.1, u = eσ ∆ = e0.25 0.1 = 1.0823, and
d = 1/u = 0.9234.
• Given the current stock price S = 230 the stock can either increase to
Su = uS = 248.92 or decrease to Sd = dS = S/u = 212.52.
• After the second time step, we have Suu = uSu = 269.40 , Sud = Sdu = 230, and
Sdd = 196.36 and so on. At maturity, after 5 time steps, the stock price can take
the following six values Suuuuu = u 5 S = 341.51, Suuuud = u 4 dS = u 3 S = 291.56,
. . . , Sddddd = S/u 5 = 154.90.
Equity price evolution under CRR model
341.51
315.55
291.56 291.57
269.40 269.4
196.36 196.36
181.44 181.44
167.65
154.90
Option value at different nodes
We have p̃ = 0.50898 and r = 0.04545, hence
0.50898 × 131.51 + (1 − 0.50898) × 81.57
cuuuu =
e0.04545×0.1
0.50898 × 131.51 + (1 − 0.50898) × 81.57
≈ = 106.50
1 + 0.04545 × 0.1
131.51
cuuuu
cuuu 81.57
cuu cuuud
cu cuud 38.92
c cud cuudd
cd cudd 2.52
cdd cuddd
cddd 0
cdddd
0
Dividend paying stock
√
√
1 (e(r −q)∆ − d) 1 1 1 ∆
u = eσ ∆
, d= , p̃ = ≈ + ((r − q) − σ 2 )
u (u − d) 2 2 2 σ
√
1 1 1 ∆
= + (b − σ 2 ) ,
2 2 2 σ
where b is called cost of carry for equity.
• Note that, we will still discount by er ∆ ≈ (1 + r ∆) for small ∆.
library(fOptions)
CRRTree = BinomialTreeOption(TypeFlag = ”ce”, S = 230, X = 210,Time = .5, r =
0.04545, b = 0.02545, sigma = 0.25, n = 5);
BinomialTreePlot(CRRTree, dy = 1, cex = 0.8, ylim = c(-6, 7),xlab = ”n”, ylab = ”Option
Value”)
Infosys Option Price
library(quantmod)
library(fOptions)
INFY = getSymbols(’INFY.NS’,src=’yahoo’, from = ”2017-01-01”)
INFY = INFY.NS[,6]
INFY.rets = diff(log(INFY))[-1]
INFY.sd = sd(INFY.rets)*sqrt(252)
S = as.numeric(INFY.NS[nrow(INFY.NS),4])
X= 1160; T = 28/365; r = .0631; b= r; sigma = INFY.sd; n=100
CRRBinomialTreeOption(TypeFlag = ”ce”, S = S, X = X,Time = T, r = r, b = b, sigma =
sigma, n = n)
European put option under Binomial model
Example
Suppose we have a 2 year European put with K = Rs 52 and S = Rs 50. Suppose we
consider 2 time steps each of duration 1 year, in which the stock goes up or down by
20%. Suppose risk free rate r = 0.05. We have
72
p̃
60
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
50 48
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
40
(1
−
p̃)
32
Example of European put option contd...
The risk neutral probability
0
p̃
cu
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
c 4
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
cd
(1
−
p̃)
20
• An American style option allows the buyer to exercise the option at any time up
to the expiration time (maturity).
• Although it might seem that, because of its additional flexibility, the American
style call option would be worth more, however the two style call options
without any dividend on underlying asset have identical worth.
• The American and European style put options have different worth.
American call worth is same as European call
Proposition
For a non-dividend paying stock, one should not exercise an American call option
before its expiration time T .
Proof.
• Suppose the current price of the stock is S and we have the American call option.
• The time to expire of the option is t from now.
• If we exercise the option at this moment, we will realize the amount S − K .
• However consider the following strategy instead of exercising the option.
i Keep the call option.
ii Short sell the stock and receive amount S and put it in the bank which will give Sert at
maturity.
iii At maturity, we will have
Sert − K
if ST ≥ K
Sert − ST if ST ≤ K ,
which is larger than (S − K )ert in both the cases and hence their is no benefit in
exercising the American call option before maturity.
• Thus American call and European call options will have the same price for a
non-dividend paying stock.
Pricing American put option using Binomial model
Example
Suppose we have a 2 year American put option with K = Rs 52 and S = Rs 50.
Suppose we consider 2 time steps each of duration 1 year, in which the stock goes up
or down by 20%. Suppose risk free rate r = 0.05. We have
72
p̃
60
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
50 48
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
40
(1
−
p̃)
32
Pricing American put option contd...
0
p̃
cu
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
c 4
p̃
(1
−
p̃)
cd
(1
−
p̃)
20
Pricing American put contd...
• We have
0.625 × 0 + 0.375 × 4
c̃u = max{K −uS, cu } = max −8, = max{−8, 1.429} = 1.429.
1.05
• Further,
0.625 × 4 + 0.375 × 20
c̃d = max{K −dS, cd } = max 12, = max{12, 9.524} = 12.
1.05
• Thus American put option price will be
0.625 × 1.429 + 0.375 × 12
put price = max 2, = max{2, 5.136} = 5.136.
1.05
• Note that American style put option price is higher than the European style put
option price.
Greeks under CRR Model
Influential Greeks
Greeks
Greeks
The option price sensitivities to different input parameters are called “Greeks”. Greeks
are mostly used for hedging purposes. The most important Greek is the Delta.
Hedging an option with a Delta is called delta hedging.
1 The Delta of a derivative security denoted by ∆ is defined as the rate of change of
its price with respect to the price of the underlying asset. If the option price is C,
then ∆ = ∂C ∂S
.
2 The second derivative of the call option with respect to the price of the stock is
2
called the Gamma of the call option and is given by Γ = ∂∂SC2 .
3 The rate of change of the price of the call option with respect to time to maturity is
called Theta and denoted by Θ = ∂C ∂T
.
Estimating Greeks under CRR model
The prices look like the following under two period CRR model
Suu
Su
S Sud = Sdu = S
Sd
Sdd
cuu
cu
c cud
cd
cdd
Greeks Calculations
1. The ∆ is given by
cu − cd cu − cd
∆= = .
Su − Sd S(u − d)
2. We calculate Γ as follows:
cuu − cud cud − cdd
Γ2 = , Γ1 = ,
Suu − S S − Sdd
Γ2 − Γ1
Γ= .
h
3. The Θ is given by
cud − c
Θ= .
2∆t
Find the Greeks ∆, Γ and Θ
√ √
• We have ∆t = T /n = 0.1, u = eσ ∆ = e0.25 0.1 = 1.0823, and
d = 1/u = 0.9234.
• Given the current stock price S = 230 the stock can either increase to
Su = uS = 248.92 or decrease to Sd = dS = S/u = 212.52.
• After the second time step, we have Suu = uSu = 269.40 , Sud = Sdu = 230, and
Sdd = 196.36.
• Further p̃ = 0.50898.
The Tree under CRR model
The prices look like the following under two period CRR model
268.40
248.92
230 230
212.52
196.36
58.40
cu
c 20
cd
0
Example contd...
We have
58.40 × 0.50898 + 20 × (1 − 0.50898)
cu = = 39.35.
1 + .05 × 0.1
Similarly
20 × 0.50898 + 0 × (1 − 0.50898)
cd = = 10.13.
1 + .05 × 0.1
Further,
39.35 × 0.50898 + 10.13 × (1 − 0.50898)
c= = 24.88.
1 + .05 × 0.1
Example contd...
• Thus
cu − cd 39.35 − 10.13
∆= = = 0.8027.
Su − Sd 248.92 − 212.52
• Further,
cuu − cud 58.40 − 20
Γ2 = = = 1.
Suu − S 268.40 − 230
and
cud − cdd 20
Γ1 = = = 0.5945,
S − Sdd 230 − 196.36
also h = (268.40 − 196.36)/2 = 36.02. Thus Γ = (1 − 0.5945)/36.02 = 0.0113.
• Moreover,
c −c 20 − 24.88
Θ = ud = = −24.4(Annual).
2∆t 2 × 0.1
Alternatively, the daily theta is Θ = −24.4/365 = −0.066849315. This mean
each passing day the value of option go down by 0.0668 approximately assuming
everything else is same.
Bermudan options
Bermudan Option
• American options can be exercised at any time, while, the European can be
exercised only at maturity.
• A Bermudan option has fixed set of dates at which the option can be exercised,
e.g., annually, quarterly, or monthly.
Pricing Bermudan Option
√ √
• We have ∆t = T /n = 0.1, u = eσ ∆ = e0.25 0.1 = 1.0823, and
d = 1/u = 0.9234.
• Given the current stock price S = 230 the stock can either increase to
Su = uS = 248.92 or decrease to Sd = dS = S/u = 212.52.
• Further p̃ = e0.05×0.1 −0.9234 1.005013−0.9234
1.0823−0.9234
= 1.0823−0.9234
≈ 0.512.
Equity price evolution under CRR model
291.56
269.40
248.92 248.92
230.00 230.00
212.52 212.52
196.36
181.44
Put option Payoffs
buu
bu 1.08
b bud
bd 37.48
bdd
68.56
Calculating the price
Thus
b = e−0.05×0.1 (0.512 × 9.3711 + 0.488 × 37.48) = 22.9731.
Barrier options
Barrier Options
• Barrier option payoffs depend on whether the underlying hits a certain level
before expiration date. The level is called the barrier.
• A knock-in option is worthless until the underlying touches the barrier price.
• Up-and-in: The spot price starts below the barrier level and has to move up for
the option to become worthy.
• Down-and-in: The spot price starts above the barrier level and has to move down
for the option to become worthy.
• You can have a call or put with American, European or Bermudan exercise style.
European call for an up-and-out barrier option
163.72
138.91
117.86 117.86
100 100
84.85 84.85
72
61.09
Payoff at maturity
63.72
buu
bu 17.86
b bud
bd 0
bdd
• Asian options are a particular type of exotic options that are priced based on the
average price of the underlying instrument.
• The Asian options can be exercised in European or American style.
• Asian options are typically cheaper than European or American options.
• Payoff of Asian call with arithmetic averaging is
Pn
i=1 Si
Payoff = max − K,0 .
n
• Payoff of Asian call with geometric averaging is
!1/n
Y n
Payoff = max Si − K,0 .
i=1
Asian call with arithmetic averaging
152.85
p̃
123.63
p̃
(1 −
p̃)
100 100
p̃
(1
− p̃)
80.89
(1 −
p̃)
65.43
Asian Option Price
Some References
• Hull, J. C. (2011). Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. 8th ed., Prentice Hall.
• Shreve, S. (2005). Stochastic Calculus for Finance I: The Binomial Asset Pricing
Model. Springer.