STAT 200 Week 5 Homework Problem Solutions

7.1.2
Random variable: x = number of complaints from identity theft in Alaska
Population parameter: p = proportion of complaints from identity theft in Alaska
H o : p = 0.23
H A : p < 0.23

7.1.6

Type I Error is rejecting H o when H o is true, and

Type II Error is failing to reject H o when H o is false.

In this question, the null hypothesis H0 is that Alaska had a proportion of complaints from
identity theft of 23%, and the alternative hypothesis HA is the Alaska had a proportion of
complaints from identity theft < 23%.
Type I error: The test concludes that the proportion of complaints from identity theft in Alaska is
less than 23%, when it is 23%. One consequence of this error is that the Federal Trade
Commission (FTC) would think that identity theft isn’t as big as a problem when it is. So the
FTC may not put as much effort into stopping or investigating identity theft in Alaska as it
should.
Type II error: The test concludes that the proportion of complaints from identity theft in Alaska
is 23%, when it is less than 23%. One consequence of this error is that the Federal Trade
Commission would put more effort into Alaska than it needs to. So resources that could be used
other places will be wasted in Alaska.
The best alpha level in this case would be 1%, since a type I error looks to have worse
consequences than a type II error.
7.2.4

a.) State the random variable and the parameter in words.

x = number of complaints from identity theft in Alaska
p = proportion of complaints from identity theft in Alaska
b.) State the null and alternative hypotheses and the level of significance
H o : p = 0.23
H A : p < 0.23
a = 0.05
c.) State and check the assumptions for a hypothesis test
 i. A simple random sample of the category of 1432 complaints of identity theft in
Alaska was taken. The study says that the complaints were out of all complaints that
year, but the year could have been chosen at random. This assumption may be met,
but you can’t be sure.
ii. There are 1432 complaints in this sample. The reason for the complaint does not
affect the next complaint. There are only two outcomes, either the complaint was for
identity theft or it wasn’t. The chance that one complaint was for identity theft does
not change. Thus, the conditions for the binomial distribution are satisfied
iii. In this case p = 0.23 and n = 1432. np = 1432 *0.23 = 329.36 ³ 5 and
nq = 1432 * (1- 0.23) = 1102.64 ³ 5 . So, the sampling distribution for p̂ is a normal
distribution.
d.) Find the sample statistic, test statistic, and p-value
Sample Proportion:
x = 321
n = 1432
x 321
p̂ = = » 0.2242
n 1432
Test Statistic:

p-value: (Note: This is a test about proportion, we use z-test)

Using TI-83/84: p-value = P ( z < -0.522 ) = normalcdf ( -1E99,-.522,0,1) » 0.301
Using Excel: This is a left-tailed test, we need to find the area to the left of -0.522.
Enter “=NORM.S.DIST(-0.522,1)”, and we will get p-value as 0.301
e.) Conclusion
Since the p-value > 0.05, fail to reject H o .
f.) Interpretation
There is not enough evidence to show that the proportion of complaints due to
identity theft in Alaska is less than 23%.

7.2.6

a.) State the random variable and the parameter in words.

x = number of children in Arizona in 2008 that were diagnosed with Autism Spectrum
Disorder (ASD)
p = proportion of children in Arizona in 2008 that were diagnosed with Autism Spectrum
Disorder (ASD)
b.) State the null and alternative hypotheses and the level of significance
 1
Ho : p =
88
1
HA : p >
88
a = 0.01
c.) State and check the assumptions for a hypothesis test
i. A simple random sample of the 32,601 diagnoses of children was taken in 2008. The
study was conducted by the CDC so this assumption is probably true.
ii. There are 32,601 diagnoses in this sample. The diagnoses of one Arizona child
doesn’t affect the opinion of the next one. There are only two outcomes, either the
Arizona child has ASD or they do not. The chance that one Arizona child has ASD
does not change. Thus the conditions for the binomial distribution are satisfied
1 1
iii. In this case p = and n = 32,601. np = 32601* » 370.466 ³ 5 and
88 88
æ 1ö
nq = 32601* ç 1- ÷ » 32230.534 ³ 5 . So, the sampling distribution for p̂ is a
è 88 ø
normal distribution.
d.) Find the sample statistic, test statistic, and p-value
Sample Proportion:
x = 507
n = 32601
x 507
p̂ = = » 0.01555
n 32601
Test Statistic:

p-value: (Note: This is a test about proportion, we use z-test)

Using TI-83/84:
p-value = P ( z > 7.131) = normalcdf ( 7.131,1E99,0,1) » 5.017 ´10-13
Using Excel: This is the right-tailed test, we need to find the area to the right of 7.131.
Enter “=1-NORM.S.DIST(7.131,1)”, we will get the p-value as 4.98E-13, i.e.,
4.98*10-13.
e.) Conclusion
Since the p-value < 0.01, reject H o .
f.) Interpretation
There is enough evidence to show that the proportion of Arizona children in 2008
with ASD is more than the national proportion.

7.3.6
a.) State the random variable and the parameter in words.
x = economic dynamism for a middle-income country
m = mean economic dynamism for middle-income countries
b.) State the null and alternative hypotheses and the level of significance
H o : m = $60.29
H A : m < $60.29
a = 0.05
c.) State and check the assumptions for a hypothesis test
i. A simple random sample of economic dynamism for 26 middle-income countries was
taken. The problem doesn’t mention how the sample was taken. So this requirement
may not have been met.
ii. The population of the economic dynamism for all middle-income countries is
normally distributed or the sample size is 30 or more. The sample size is 26. The
histogram looks somewhat bell shaped, there are no outliers, and the normal
probability plot does appear linear. So this assumption probably met.
Economic Dynamism for Middle-Income Countries
Histogram of dynamism
Normal Q-Q Plot
8

60
6

50
Sample Quantiles
Frequency

40
2

30
0

20 30 40 50 60 30 40 50 60 -2 -1 0 1 2

dynamism Dynamism Theoretical Quantiles

d.) Find the sample statistic, test statistic, and p-value

Sample mean and standard deviation:
x » $43.8727
s » $9.07115 (Excel STDEV.S function)
n = 26
Test Statistic:

p-value: (Note: The population standard deviation is unknown, so we will leverage t-

test with degrees of freedom of 26-1 = 25)
Using TI-83/84: p-value = P ( t < -9.2284 ) = tcdf ( -1E99,-9.2284,25 ) » 7.9 ´10 -10
Using Excel: This is a left-tailed test, we need to find the area to the left of -9.2284.
Enter “ =T.DIST(-9.2284,25,1) “, and we will get the p-value as 7.9E-10 = 7.9 * 10-10

e.) Conclusion
Since the p-value < 0.05, reject H o .
f.) Interpretation
 There is enough evidence to show that the mean economic dynamism for a middle-
income country is less than 60.29, the mean for high-income countries.
7.3.8

a.) State the random variable and the parameter in words.

x = forward and backward sway of an elderly person
m = mean forward and backward sway of an elderly person
b.) State the null and alternative hypotheses and the level of significance
H o : m = 18.125 mm
H A : m > 18.125 mm
a = 0.05
c.) State and check the assumptions for a hypothesis test
i. A simple random sample of the forward and backward sway of 9 elderly people was
taken. The problem doesn’t mention how the sample was taken. So this requirement
may not have been met.
ii. The population of the forward and backward sway of all elderly people is normally
distributed. The histogram does not look bell shaped, there is one outlier, and the
normal probability plot does not appear linear. So this assumption may not be met.
Normal Q-Q Plot

50
Histogram of sway

Forward and Backward Sway 45

3.0
2.5

40
Sample Quantiles
2.0

35
Frequency

1.5

30
1.0

25
0.5

20
0.0

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

sway Sway Theoretical Quantiles

d.) Find the sample statistic, test statistic, and p-value

Sample mean and standard deviation:
x » 26.3333 mm
s » 9.77241 mm (Excel STDEV.S function)
n=9
Test Statistic:

p-value: (Population standard deviation is unknown, so we will use t-test with degrees
of freedom 9 – 1 =8)
Using TI-83/84: p-value = P ( t > 2.5198 ) = tcdf ( 2.5198,1E99,8 ) » 0.0179
Using Excel: This is a right-tailed test, we need to find the area to the right of 2.52.
Enter “ = T.DIST.RT(2.52, 8, 1), we will get p-value as 0.0179. R: p-value =
P ( t > 2.5198 ) = 1- pt ( 2.5198,8 ) » 0.0179
 e.) Conclusion
Since the p-value < 0.05, reject H o .
f.) Interpretation
There is enough evidence to show that the mean sway forward and backward of elderly
people is more than 18.125 mm, the mean forward sway of younger people.
8.1.4 A confidence interval will become wider if the sample size is decreased.
8.1.8 There is a 95% chance that the interval contains the true proportion of Americans who
believe it is the government’s responsibility for health care.
8.2.6
a.) State the random variable and the parameter in words.
x = number of children in Arizona in 2008 that were diagnosed with Autism Spectrum
Disorder (ASD)
p = proportion of children in Arizona in 2008 that were diagnosed with Autism Spectrum
Disorder (ASD)
b.) State and check the assumptions
iv. A simple random sample of the 32,601 diagnoses of children was taken in 2008. The
study was conducted by the CDC so this assumption is probably true.
v. There are 32,601 diagnoses in this sample. The diagnoses of one Arizona child
doesn’t affect the opinion of the next one. There are only two outcomes, either the
Arizona child has ASD or they do not. The chance that one Arizona child has ASD
does not change. Thus the conditions for the binomial distribution are satisfied
vi. In this case p̂ » 0.01555 and n = 32601. np̂ = 32601*0.01555 » 506.95 ³ 5 and
nq̂ = 32601* (1- 0.01555 ) » 32094.05 ³ 5 . So, the sampling distribution for p̂ is a
normal distribution.
g.) Find the sample statistic and confidence interval
Sample Proportion:
x = 507
n = 32601
x 507
p̂ = = » 0.01555
n 32601
Confidence Interval:
[Using Excel: Enter “=NORM.S.INV(0.995)]

Confidence Interval: p̂ - E < p < p̂ + E

0.0156 - 0.0018 < p < 0.0156 + 0.0018

0.0138 < p < 0.0174

 h.) Statistical Interpretation: There is a 95% chance that the interval 0.0138 < p <
0.0174 contains the true proportion of children in Arizona in 2008 that were
diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).
i.) Real World Interpretation: The proportion of children in Arizona in 2008 that
were diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is between 0.0138 and
0.0174.

8.3.6
a.) State the random variable and the parameter in words.
x = economic dynamism for a middle-income country
m = mean economic dynamism for middle-income countries
b.) State and check the assumptions
iii. A simple random sample of economic dynamism for 26 middle-income countries was
taken. The problem doesn’t mention how the sample was taken. So this assumption
may not have been met.
iv. The population of the economic dynamism for all middle-income countries is
normally distributed or the sample size is 30 or more. The sample size is 26. The
histogram looks somewhat bell shaped, there are no outliers, and the normal
probability plot does appear linear. So this assumption probably met.
Economic Dynamism for Middle-Income Countries
Histogram of dynamism
Normal Q-Q Plot
8

60
6

50
Sample Quantiles
Frequency

40
2

30
0

20 30 40 50 60 30 40 50 60 -2 -1 0 1 2

dynamism Dynamism Theoretical Quantiles

g.) Find the sample statistic and confidence interval

Sample mean and standard deviation:

Confidence Interval:
t c = 2.060 [Excel: Enter “=T.INV.2T(0.05,25)’]
s 9.07115
E = tc = 2.060 » $3.6647
n 26
x-E<m<x+E
43.8727 - 3.6647 < m < 43.8727 + 3.6647
$40.208 < m < $47.5374
h.) Statistical Interpretation: There is a 95% chance that the interval
contains the true mean economic dynamism for middle-
income countries.
i.) Real World Interpretation: The mean economic dynamism for middle-income
countries is between $40.21 and $47.54.