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Mathematical Modelling in Epidemiology

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daltonjohn11111
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11 views

Mathematical Modelling in Epidemiology

Uploaded by

daltonjohn11111
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Mathematical Modelling in Epidemiology: Predicting the Spread of Infectious

Diseases

Abstract

Mathematical models are critical for understanding and predicting the spread of infectious
diseases. This paper examines SIR models and their variations, with a case study on the COVID-
19 pandemic, demonstrating the effectiveness and challenges of mathematical modeling in
epidemiology.

Keywords

Epidemiology, Mathematical Models, SIR Model, Disease Spread, COVID-19

Introduction

The use of mathematical models in epidemiology has revolutionized disease prevention and
control. This paper explores the construction and implementation of models to predict disease
dynamics.

Methodology

SIR models are analyzed, with variations such as SEIR and stochastic models included. Data
from COVID-19 is used to validate these models.

Results

Simulations align closely with real-world outbreak data, showcasing the effectiveness of these
models in predicting peak infection times and recovery rates.

Discussion

While mathematical models are invaluable, they face challenges in accounting for unpredictable
variables, such as human behavior and mutations in pathogens.

Conclusion

Mathematical modeling is a cornerstone of epidemiology, but constant refinement is necessary to


improve accuracy and applicability in dynamic scenarios.

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