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Tshepo Chris Nokeri

Econometrics and Data Science

Apply Data Science Techniques to Model Complex
Problems and Implement Solutions for Economic
Problems
1st ed.
Tshepo Chris Nokeri
Pretoria, South Africa

ISBN 978-1-4842-7433-0 e-ISBN 978-1-4842-7434-7

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-7434-7

© Tshepo Chris Nokeri 2022

Apress Standard

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks,

service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the
absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the
relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general
use.

The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the
advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate
at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the
editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the
material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have
been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Apress imprint is published by the registered company APress

Media, LLC part of Springer Nature.
The registered company address is: 1 New York Plaza, New York, NY
10004, U.S.A.
I dedicate this book to my family and everyone who merrily played
influential roles in my life, i.e., Professor Chris William Callaghan and
Mrs. Renette Krommenhoek from the University of the Witwatersrand,
among others I did not mention.
Introduction
This book bridges the gap between econometrics and data science
techniques. It introduces a holistic approach to satisfactorily solving
economic problems from a machine learning perspective. It begins by
discussing the practical benefits of harnessing data science techniques
in econometrics. It then clarifies the key concepts of variance,
covariance, and correlation, and covers the most common linear
regression model, called ordinary least-squares. It explains the
techniques for testing assumptions through residual analysis, including
other evaluation metrics (i.e., mean absolute error, mean squared error,
root mean squared error, and R2). It also exhibits ways to correctly
interpret your findings. Following that, it presents an approach to
tackling series time data by implementing an alternative model to the
dominant time series analysis models (i.e., ARIMA and SARIMA), called
the additive model. That model typically adds non-linearity and smooth
parameters.
The book also introduces ways to capture non-linearity in economic
data by implementing the most prevalent binary classifier, called
logistic regression, alongside metrics for evaluating the model (i.e.,
confusion matrix, classification report, ROC curve, and precision-recall
curve). In addition, you’ll learn about a technique for identifying hidden
states in economic data by implementing the Hidden Markov modeling
technique, together with an approach for realizing mean and variance
in each state. You’ll also learn how to categorize countries grounded on
similarities by implementing the most common cluster analysis model,
called the K-Means model, which implements the Euclidean distance
metric.
The book also covers the practical application of deep learning in
econometrics by showing key artificial neural networks (i.e., restricted
Boltzmann machine, multilayer perceptron, and deep belief networks),
including ways of adding more complexity to networks by expanding
hidden layers. Then, it familiarizes you with a method of replicating
economic activities across multiple trials by implementing the Monte
Carlo simulation technique. The books concludes by presenting a
standard procedure for testing causal relationships among variables,
including the mediating effects of other variables in those relationships,
by implementing structural equation modeling (SEM).
This book uses Anaconda (an open-source distribution of Python
programming) to prepare examples. Before exploring the contents of
this book, you should understand the basics of economics, statistics,
Python programming, probability theories, and predictive analytics.
The following list highlights some Python libraries that this book
covers.
Wdata for extracting data from the World Bank database
Scikit-Learn for building and validating key machine learning
algorithms
Keras for high-level frameworks for deep learning
Semopy for performing structural equation modeling
Pandas for data structures and tools
NumPy for arrays and matrices
Matplotlib and Seaborn for recognized plots and graphs
This book targets beginners to intermediate economists, data
scientists, and machine learning engineers who want to learn how to
approach econometrics problems from a machine learning perspective
using an array of Python libraries.
Any source code or other supplementary material referenced by the
author in this book is available to readers on GitHub via the book’s
product page, located at www.apress.com/978-1-4842-7433-0. For
more detailed information, please visit
http://www.apress.com/source-code.
Acknowledgments
Writing a single-authored book is demanding, but I received firm
support and active encouragement from my family and dear friends.
Many heartfelt thanks to the Apress Publishing team for all their
support throughout the writing and editing processes. Last, my humble
thanks to all of you for reading this; I earnestly hope you find it helpful.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1:​Introduction to Econometrics
Econometrics
Economic Design
Understanding Statistics
Machine Learning Modeling
Deep Learning Modeling
Structural Equation Modeling
Macroeconomic Data Sources
Context of the Book
Practical Implications
Chapter 2:​Univariate Consumption Study Applying Regression
Context of This Chapter
Theoretical Framework
Lending Interest Rate
Final Consumption Expenditure (in Current U.​S.​Dollars)
The Normality Assumption
Normality Detection
Descriptive Statistics
Covariance Analysis
Correlation Analysis
Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model Development Using
Statsmodels
Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model Development Using
Scikit-Learn
Cross-Validation
 Predictions
Estimating Intercept and Coefficients
Residual Analysis
Other Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model
Performance Metrics
Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model Learning Curve
Conclusion
Chapter 3:​Multivariate Consumption Study Applying Regression
Context of This Chapter
Social Contributions (Current LCU)
Lending Interest Rate
GDP Growth (Annual Percentage)
Final Consumption Expenditure
Theoretical Framework
Descriptive Statistics
Covariance Analysis
Correlation Analysis
Correlation Severity Detection
Dimension Reduction
Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model Development Using
Statsmodels
Residual Analysis
Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model Development Using
Scikit-Learn
Cross-Validation
Hyperparameter Optimization
Residual Analysis
 Ordinary Least-Squares Regression Model Learning Curve
Conclusion
Chapter 4:​Forecasting Growth
Descriptive Statistics
Stationarity Detection
Random White Noise Detection
Autocorrelation Detection
Different Univariate Time Series Models
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
Model
The Additive Model
Additive Model Development
Additive Model Forecast
Seasonal Decomposition
Conclusion
Chapter 5:​Classifying Economic Data Applying Logistic Regression
Context of This Chapter
Theoretical Framework
Urban Population
GNI per Capita, Atlas Method
GDP Growth
Life Expectancy at Birth, Total (in Years)
Descriptive Statistics
Covariance Analysis
Correlation Analysis
 Correlation Severity Detection
Dimension Reduction
Making a Continuous Variable a Binary
Logistic Regression Model Development Using Scikit-Learn
Logistic Regression Confusion Matrix
Logistic Regression Confusion Matrix Interpretation
Logistic Regression Classification Report
Logistic Regression ROC Curve
Logistic Regression Precision-Recall Curve
Logistic Regression Learning Curve
Conclusion
Chapter 6:​Finding Hidden Patterns in World Economy and Growth
Applying the Hidden Markov Model
Descriptive Statistics
Gaussian Mixture Model Development
Representing Hidden States Graphically
Order Hidden States
Conclusion
Chapter 7:​Clustering GNI Per Capita on a Continental Level
Context of This Chapter
Descriptive Statistics
Dimension Reduction
Cluster Number Detection
K-Means Model Development
Predictions
Cluster Centers Detection
 Cluster Results Analysis
K-Means Model Evaluation
The Silhouette Methods
Conclusion
Chapter 8:​Solving Economic Problems Applying Artificial Neural
Networks
Context of This Chapter
Theoretical Framework
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Classifier
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Classifier Development
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Confusion Matrix
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Classification Report
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Classifier ROC Curve
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Classifier Precision-Recall
Curve
Restricted Boltzmann Machine Classifier Learning Curve
Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Classifier
Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Classifier Model Development
Multilayer Perceptron Classification Report
Multilayer Perceptron ROC Curve
Multilayer Perceptron Classifier Precision-Recall Curve
Multilayer Perceptron Classifier Learning Curve
Artificial Neural Network Prototyping Using Keras
Artificial Neural Network Structuring
Network Wrapping
Keras Classifier Confusion Matrix
Keras Classification Report
 Keras Classifier ROC Curve
Keras Classifier Precision-Recall Curve
Training Loss and Cross-Validation Loss Across Epochs
Training Loss and Cross-Validation Loss Accuracy Across
Epochs
Conclusion
Chapter 9:​Inflation Simulation
Understanding Simulation
Context of This Chapter
Descriptive Statistics
Monte Carlo Simulation Model Development
Simulation Results
Simulation Distribution
Chapter 10:​Economic Causal Analysis Applying Structural
Equation Modeling
Framing Structural Relationships
Context of This Chapter
Theoretical Framework
Final Consumption Expenditure
Inflation and Consumer Prices
Life Expectancy in Sweden
GDP Per Capita Growth
Covariance Analysis
Correlation Analysis
Correlation Severity Analysis
Structural Equation Model Estimation
Structural Equation Model Development
 Structural Equation Model Information
Structural Equation Model Inspection
Report Indices
Visualize Structural Relationships
Conclusion
Index
About the Author
Tshepo Chris Nokeri
harnesses advanced analytics and
artificial intelligence to foster innovation
and optimize business performance. In
his functional work, he delivered
complex solutions to companies in the
mining, petroleum, and manufacturing
industries. He earned a Bachelor’s
degree in Information Management and
then graduated with an Honour’s degree
in Business Science at the University of
the Witwatersrand on a TATA Prestigious
Scholarship and a Wits Postgraduate
Merit Award. He was also unanimously
awarded the Oxford University Press Prize. He is the author of Data
Science Revealed and Implementing Machine Learning in Finance, both
published by Apress.
About the Technical Reviewer
Pratibha Saha
is an economics graduate currently working as an Economist Analyst-
Consultant at Arthashastra Intelligence. She is trained in econometrics,
statistics, and finance with interests in machine learning, deep learning,
AI, et al.
She is motivated by the idea of problem solving with a purpose and
strongly believes in diversity facilitating tech to supplement socially
aware decision making. She finds technology to be a great enabler and
understands the poignancy of data-driven solutions. By investigating
the linkages of tech, AI, and social impact, she hopes to use her skills to
propel these solutions.
Additionally, she is a feline enthusiast and loves dabbling in origami.
Find her on LinkedIn at
https://www.linkedin.com/in/pratibha-saha-
8089a3192/ and on GitHub at https://github.com/Pratsa09
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to APress Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2022
T. C. Nokeri, Econometrics and Data Science
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-7434-7_1

1. Introduction to Econometrics
Tshepo Chris Nokeri1
(1) Pretoria, South Africa

This chapter explains data science techniques applied to the field of econometrics.
To begin, it covers the relationship between economics and quantitative methods,
which paves the way for the econometrics field. It also covers the relevance of
econometrics in devising and revising the economic policies of a nation. It then
summarizes machine learning, deep learning, and structural equation modeling.
To conclude, it reveals ways to extract macroeconomic data using a standard
Python library.

Econometrics
Econometrics is a social science subclass that investigates broad business
activities at the macro level, i.e., at the country, region, or continent level. It is an
established social science field that employs statistical models to investigate
theoretical claims about macroeconomic phenomena. Figure 1-1 is a
simplification of econometrics. Organizations like the statistical bureau capture
economic activities across time, which they make available to the public.
Practitioners, such as economists, research analysts, and statisticians alike,
extract the data and model it using algorithms grounded on theoretical
frameworks in order to make future predictions.
Figure 1-1 Econometrics
Before you proceed with the contents of this book, be sure that you
understand the basic concepts that relate to economics and statistics.

Economic Design
Economic design is grounded on the notion that if we can accurately estimate
macroeconomic phenomenon, we can devise mechanisms that help manage it. As
mentioned, there are several well-established organizations from which one can
extract factual macroeconomic data. Note that we cannot estimate the whole
population, but we can use a sample (a representative of the population) because
there are errors in statistical estimations. Because there is a pool of reliable
macroeconomic data sources, we can apply the data and investigate consistent
patterns by applying quantitative models to make sense of an economy. When we
are confident that a model estimates what we intend it to estimate and does so
exceptionally, we can apply such a model to predict economic events. Remember
that the primary purpose of a scientific enterprise is to predict events and control
underlying mechanisms by applying quantitative models.
Econometrics uses statistical principles to estimate the parameters of a
population, but the ultimate litmus test is always economic ideology. Only
economic theory can validate/invalidate the results, which can be further used to
determine causation/correlation, etc. It should be apparent that politics occupies
a paramount role in modern life. At most, the political sentiments typically
accompany a firm belief about the economy and how it ought to be. Such beliefs
might not reflect economic reality. When the considered belief about the economy
is absurd, there is no way of combating pressing societal problems with devised
solutions. To satisfactorily solve an economic problem, you must have a logical
view; otherwise, feelings, standard assumptions, and authoritarian knowledge
dilute your analysis of an economy.
In summary, policymakers apply econometrics to devise and revise economic
policies so that they can correctly solve economic problems. This entails that they
investigate historical economic events, develop complex quantitative models, and
apply findings of those models (provided they are reliable) to drive economic
policies. Econometrics is an approach for finding answers to questions that relate
to the economy. Policymakers who are evidence-oriented drive policymaking
initiatives by applying factual data rather than depending on political and
economic ideologies.

Understanding Statistics
Statistics is the field concerned with discovering consistent patterns in raw data
to derive a logical conclusion regarding a recognized phenomenon. It involves
investigating the central tendency (the mean value) and dispersion of data (the
standard deviation) and then studying theoretical claims about the phenomenon
by applying quantitative models. In addition, business institutions apply it in ad
hoc reporting, research, and business process controls. Researchers, in addition,
apply statistics in fields like natural sciences, physical sciences, chemistry,
engineering, and social sciences, among other fields. It is the backbone of
quantitative research.

Machine Learning Modeling

There is a link between statistics and machine learning. In this book, we consider
machine learning an extension of statistics that incorporates techniques from
fields like computer science. Machine learning methods derive from statistical
principles and methods. We approach machine learning problems with
“applications” and “automation” in mind. With machine learning, the end goal is
not to derive some conclusion but to automate monotonous tasks and determine
replicable patterns for those autonomous tasks. Figure 1-2 shows how
quantitative models operate.
Figure 1-2 Fundamental machine learning model
Figure 1-2 demonstrates the basic machine learning model flow. Initially, we
extract the data from a database, then preprocess and split it. This is followed by
modeling the data by applying a function that receives a predictor variable and
operates it to generate an output value. A variable represents a process that we
can observe and estimate. It is common practice in machine learning to deploy
models as web applications or as part of web applications.

Deep Learning Modeling

Deep learning applies artificial neural networks (a reciprocal web of nodes) that
imitate the human neural structure. Artificial neural networks are a group of
nodes that receive input values in the input layer, transform them to the
subsequent hidden layer (a layer between the input and output layer), which
transforms them and allots varying weights (vector parameters that determine
the extent of influence input values have on output values) and bias (a balance
value which is 1). It is a subclass of machine learning that combats some
difficulties that we encounter with conventional quantitative models. For
instance, the vanishing gradient problem—a case in which the gradient is
minimal at the initial phase of the training process and increases as we include
more data. There are other types of artificial neural networks, i.e. Restricted
Boltzmann Machine—a shallow network between the hidden layer and output
layer, Multilayer Perceptron—a neural network with over two hidden layers,
Recurrent Neural Network—a neural network for solving sequential data, and
Convolutional Neural Network—a neural network for dimension reduction,
frequently applied in computer vision. This covers the Restricted Boltzmann
Machine and Multilayer Perceptron. Figure 1-3 shows a Multilayer Perceptron
classifier.

Figure 1-3 Example of a Multilayer Perceptron classifier

Figure 1-3 shows that the Multilayer Perceptron classifier is composed of an
input layer that retrieves input values (X1, X2, and X3) and conveys them to the
first hidden layer. That layer then retrieves the values and transforms them by
applying a function (in our case, the Sigmoid function). It conveys an output value,
which is then conveyed to the second hidden layer, which also retrieves the input
values. The process reiterates—it transforms values and conveys them to the
output layer and produces an output value represented as Y in Figure 1-3. We
recognized the training process that networks apply to learn the structure of the
data, recognized as backward propagation (updating weights in reverse). Chapter
8 covers deep learning.

Structural Equation Modeling

The structural equation model includes a set of models that determine the nature
of causal relationships among sets of variables. It includes factor analysis, path
analysis, and regression analysis. It helps us investigate mediating relationships,
so we can detect how the presence of other variables weakens or strengthens the
nature of the structural relationship between the predictor variable and the
response variable. Figure 1-4 shows a hypothetical framework that outlines direct
and indirect structural relationships.
Figure 1-4 Fundamental structural equation model
Figure 1-4 demonstrates a hypothetical framework representing the
structural relationship between GDP per capita growth (as an annual percentage),
inflation, consumer price index (as a percentage), and final consumption
expenditure (in current U.S. dollars). In addition, it highlights the mediating
effects of life expectancy on the relationship between GDP per capita growth and
final consumption expenditure. Chapter 10 covers structural equation modeling.

Macroeconomic Data Sources

There are several libraries that are used to extract macroeconomic data. This
book uses one of the more prominent libraries, called wbdata. This library
extracts data from the World Bank database1. Alternatively, you can extract the
data from the World Bank website directly. In addition, there are other
macroeconomic sources you can use, such as the St. Louis Fed (Federal Reserve
Economic) database2 and the International Monetary Fund database3, among
others.
This book uses the world-bank-data library as the principal library
because it offers a wide range of social indicators. Before you proceed, ensure that
you install the world-bank-data library. This will make the process of
developing quantitative models much simpler, as you will not have to write
considerable chunks of code. To install the library in the Python environment, use
pip install wbdata. Provided you are using the Anaconda environment, use
conda install wbdata. At the point of printing this book, the version of the
library was v0.3.0. Listing 1-1 shows how to retrieve the macroeconomic data.

import wbdata
country = ["USA"]
indicator = {"FI.RES.TOTL.CD":"gdp_growth"}
df = wbdata.get_dataframe(indicator, country=country,
convert_date=True)
Listing 1-1 Loading Data from the World Bank Library
wbdata extracts the data and loads it into a pandas dataframe. Figure 1-5
demonstrates the wbdata workflow.

Figure 1-5 World Bank library workflow

Extracting data from the wbdata library requires that you specify the country
ID. Given that the World Bank includes several countries, it is burdensome to
know the IDs of all of them. The most convenient way to find a country’s ID is to
search for it by name (see Listing 1-2). For this example, we entered China, and
it returned Chinese countries, including their IDs.

wbdata.search_countries("China")
id name
---- --------------------
CHN China
HKG Hong Kong SAR, China
MAC Macao SAR, China
TWN Taiwan, China
Listing 1-2 Searching for a Country ID

Extracting data from the wbdata library requires that you specify the
economic indicator’s ID as well. Given that the World Bank includes several
macroeconomic indicators, it is burdensome to know the IDs of all the indicators.
The most convenient way to find an indicator’s ID is to search for it by name (see
Listing 1-3). For this example, we entered inflation and it returned all
indicators that contain the word “inflation,” including their IDs.
wbdata.search_indicators("inflation")
id name
-------------------- ------------------------------------
-------------
FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG Inflation, consumer prices (annual
%)
FP.FPI.TOTL.ZG Inflation, food prices (annual %)
FP.WPI.TOTL.ZG Inflation, wholesale prices (annual
%)
NY.GDP.DEFL.87.ZG Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG.AD Inflation, GDP deflator: linked
series (annual %)
Listing 1-3 Searching for Macroeconomic Data
The wbdata library includes several data sources, like World Development
Indicators, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Subnational Malnutrition Database,
International Debt Statistics, and International Debt Statistics: DSSI, among
others. This book focuses predominantly on sources that provide economic data.
It also covers social indicators. Listing 1-4 demonstrates how to retrieve indicator
sources using wbdata.get_source() (see Table 1-1).

sources = wbdata.get_source()
sources
Listing 1-4 Retrieving the World Bank Sources

Table 1-1 World Bank Sources

ID Last Name Code Description URL Data Metadata Concepts

Updated Availability Availability
0 1 2019- Doing DBS Y Y 3
10-23 Business
1 2 2021- World WDI Y Y 3
05-25 Development
Indicators
2 3 2020- Worldwide WGI Y Y 3
09-28 Governance
Indicators
3 5 2016- Subnational SNM Y Y 3
03-21 Malnutrition
Database
4 6 2021- International IDS Y Y 4
01-21 Debt
 ID Last Name Code Description URL Data Metadata Concepts
Updated Availability Availability
Statistics
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
60 80 2020- Gender GDL Y N 4
07-25 Disaggregated
Labor
Database
(GDLD)
61 81 2021- International DSI Y N 4
01-21 Debt
Statistics:
DSSI
62 82 2021- Global Public GPP Y N 3
03-24 Procurement
63 83 2021- Statistical SPI Y Y 3
04-01 Performance
Indicators
(SPI)
64 84 2021- Education EDP Y Y 3
05-11 Policy
Table 1-1 outlines the source ID, name, code, availability, metadata availability,
concepts, and the last date of update. Listing 1-5 shows how to retrieve the topics
(see Table 1-2). Each topic has its own ID.

wbdata.get_topic()
Listing 1-5 Retrieve Topic

Table 1-2 World Bank Topic

ID Value Source Note

0 1 Agriculture & Rural Development For the 70 percent of the world’s poor who liv...
1 2 Aid Effectiveness Aid effectiveness is the impact that aid has i...
2 3 Economy & Growth Economic growth is central to economic develop...
3 4 Education Education is one of the most powerful instrume...
4 5 Energy & Mining The world economy needs ever-increasing amount...
5 6 Environment Natural and man-made environmental resources –...
6 7 Financial Sector An economy’s financial markets are critical to...
7 8 Health Improving health is central to the Millennium ...
8 9 Infrastructure Infrastructure helps determine the success of ...
 ID Value Source Note
9 10 Social Protection & Labor The supply of labor available in an economy in...
10 11 Poverty For countries with an active poverty monitorin...
11 12 Private Sector Private markets drive economic growth, tapping...
12 13 Public Sector Effective governments improve people’s standar...
13 14 Science & Technology Technological innovation, often fueled by gove...
14 15 Social Development Data here cover child labor, gender issues, re...
15 16 Urban Development Cities can be tremendously efficient. It is ea...
16 17 Gender Gender equality is a core development objectiv...
17 18 Millennium development goals
18 19 Climate Change Climate change is expected to hit developing c...
19 20 External Debt Debt statistics provide a detailed picture of ...
20 21 Trade Trade is a key means to fight poverty and achi...
Table 1-2 outlines source ID, values of the topic, and source notes. The
wbdata library encompasses a broad range of topics from fields like health,
economics, urban development, and other social science-related fields.

Context of the Book

Each chapter of this book starts by covering the underlying concepts of a
particular model. The chapters show ways to extract macroeconomic data for
exploration, including techniques to ensure that the structure of the data is
suitable for a chosen model and meets preliminary requirements. In addition, the
chapters reveal possible ways of establishing a hypothetical framework and
testable hypotheses. They discuss how to investigate hypotheses by employing a
quantitative model that operates a set of variables to generate output values.
For each model in this book, there are ways to evaluate it. Each chapter also
includes visuals that will help you better understand the structure of the data and
the results.

Practical Implications
This book expands on the present body of knowledge on econometrics. It covers
ways through which you can apply data science techniques to discover patterns in
macroeconomic data and draw meaningful insights. It intends on accelerating
evidence-based economic design—devising and revising economic policies based
on evidence that we derive from quantitative-driven models. This book is for
professionals who seek to approach some of the world’s most pressing problems
by applying data science and machine learning techniques. In summary, it will
enable you to detect why specific social and economic activities occur, and help
you predict the likelihood of future activities occurring. The book assumes that
you have some basic understanding of key concepts of statistics and economics.

Footnotes
1 Indicators | Data (worldbank.​org)

2 Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St.​Louis Fed (stlouisfed.​org)

3 IMF Data
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to APress Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2022
T. C. Nokeri, Econometrics and Data Science
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-7434-7_2

2. Univariate Consumption Study Applying

Regression
Tshepo Chris Nokeri1
(1) Pretoria, South Africa

This chapter introduces the standard univariate (or simple) linear regression model,
called the ordinary least-squares model, which estimates the intercept and slope while
diminishing the residuals (see Equation 2-1). It applies the model to determine the
relationship between the interest rates that U.S. banks charge for lending and the
market value of goods and services that U.S. households consume annually. It includes
ways of conducting covariance analysis, correlation analysis, model development,
cross-validation, hyperparameter optimization, and model performance analysis.
The ordinary least-squares model is one of the most common parametric methods.
It establishes powerful claims regarding the data—it expects normality (values of a
variable saturating the mean value) and linearity (an association between an
independent variable and a dependent variable). This chapter uses the most common
parametric method, called the ordinary least-squares model, to investigate the
association between the predictor variable (the independent variable) and the
response variable (the dependent variable). It’s based on a straight-line equation (see
Figure 2-1).
Figure 2-1 Line of best fit
Figure 2-1 shows a straight line in red and the independent data points in green—
the line cuts through the data points. Equation 2-1 shows the ordinary least-squares
equation.
(Equation 2-1)
Where is the predicted response variable (the expected the U.S. final
consumption expenditure in this example), represents the intercept—representing

the mean value of the response variable (the U.S. final consumption expenditure in U.S.
dollars for this example), represents the predictor variable (the U.S. lending

interest rate in this example), and 1 is the slope—representing the direction of the

relationship between X (the U.S. lending interest rate) and the final consumption
expenditure (in current U.S. dollars). Look at the straight red line in Figure 2-1—the
slope is positive). Finally, represents the error in terms (refer to Equation 2-2).

(Equation 2-2)
Where εi is the error in term (also called the residual term )—representing the
difference between yi (the actual U.S. final consumption expenditure) and i (the
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
The roof was thatched, whence arose the accident. The walls were
of timber, for nothing was burnt but wood and straw. The building
was ‘flanked with a ditch, and forced out of a marish’. It had a stage-
house ‘round as taylors clewe’, and carried a silken flag. There were
two narrow doors, and hard by stood an alehouse. The new Globe
built after the fire was tiled for greater safety. In other respects
there was probably no great change. The building is described in
1634 as of timber, upon an old foundation. The maps, if they can be
trusted, figure it as polygonal, rather than strictly round. No doubt it
was round inside; an ‘amphytheator’, it is called in Holland’s Leaguer.
The Sharers Papers of 1635 mention the tiring-house door, at which
money was taken. James Wright tells us that it was a summer
house, large and partly open to the weather, and that the acting was
always by daylight. Malone conjectured that the name ‘Globe’ was
taken from the sign, ‘which was a figure of Hercules supporting the
Globe, under which was written Totus mundus agit histrionem’.[1293]
I do not know where he got this information.

xii. THE FORTUNE

[Bibliographical Note.—Most of the documents are at Dulwich, and
are printed in full or in abstract by W. W. Greg in Henslowe Papers,
and by J. P. Collier in Alleyn Memoirs and Alleyn Papers. The Register
of the Privy Council adds a few of importance. Valuable summaries of
the history of the theatre are given by W. W. Greg, Henslowe’s Diary,
ii. 56, and W. Young, History of Dulwich College (1889), ii. 257. The
Catalogue of the Manuscripts and Muniments at Dulwich (1881–1903)
by G. F. Warner and F. B. Bickley is also useful.]
The settlement of the Chamberlain’s men in 1599 at the Globe,
hard by the Rose, on Bankside, probably led Henslowe and Alleyn to
plan during the same year a countermove, by the transference of
the Admiral’s men to a new theatrical locality in the rapidly growing
districts on the north-west boundary of the City. The Rose, although
not built fifteen years, was in decay, and the swamps of the
Bankside had not, especially in bad weather, proved attractive to
visitors. The new centre might be expected to serve in summer and
winter alike, and, while in a place ‘remote and exempt’ from the City
jurisdiction, would be convenient for the well-to-do population,
which was establishing itself in the western suburbs, along the main
roads of Holborn and the Strand. The Fortune on the north, and the
Blackfriars, opened about the same time on the south, delimited a
region which has remained almost to our own day the head-quarters
of the stage. The actual site selected lay just outside Cripplegate
between Golding or Golden Lane and Whitecross Street, in the
county of Middlesex, the lordship or liberty of Finsbury, and the
parish of St. Giles without Cripplegate. The title-deeds at Dulwich
make it possible to trace the history of the property or part of it back
to the reign of Henry VIII, but for the present purpose it is sufficient
to begin with 11 July 1584, the date of a lease by Daniel Gill, son of
William Gill, gardener, to Patrick Brewe, goldsmith, of five tenements
on the east side of Golding Lane and one on the west side of
Whitecross Street at a rent of £12 a year. This lease Brewe assigned
to Alleyn on 22 December 1599, for a sum of £240. Subsequently, in
1610, Alleyn bought up a reversionary lease for £100, and also, after
troublesome negotiations with the numerous descendants of Daniel
Gill, the freehold of the property for £340.[1294] This purchase,
however, and probably also the original lease, included a good deal
more than the actual plot on which the theatre was built. The deed
of sale recites six tenements on the east of Golden Lane and six on
the west of Whitecross Street. It is pretty clear, from the boundaries
described, as compared with those in a temporary assignment by
Alleyn of the lease, that the property dealt with in 1584 and in 1610
was the same, and it is natural to conclude that Alleyn had himself
added to the number of tenements.[1295] This is confirmed by a note
of Alleyn’s that, in addition to building the play-house, he spent £120
‘for other priuat buildings of myn owne’. One such building adjoined
the south side of the play-house in 1601.[1296] Alleyn’s note gives
the cost of the play-house itself as £520, making up with the private
buildings and the purchase of leasehold, reversion, and freehold, a
total expenditure of £1,320.[1297] The contract for building the
framework was taken by Peter Street, carpenter, at £440, which
presumably left Alleyn £80 for the painting and other decorative
work excluded from the contract. The following is the text of the
contract, which is preserved at Dulwich:[1298]
‘This Indenture made the Eighte daie of Januarye 1599, and in the
Twoe and Fortyth yeare of the Reigne of our sovereigne Ladie
Elizabeth, by the grace of god Queene of Englande, Fraunce and
Irelande, defender of the Faythe, &c. betwene Phillipp Henslowe and
Edwarde Allen of the parishe of Ste Saviours in Southwark in the
Countie of Surrey, gentlemen, on thone parte, and Peeter Streete,
Cittizen and Carpenter of London, on thother parte witnesseth That
whereas the saide Phillipp Henslowe & Edward Allen, the daie of the
date hereof, haue bargayned, compounded & agreed with the saide
Peter Streete ffor the erectinge, buildinge & settinge upp of a new
howse and Stadge for a Plaiehouse in and vppon a certeine plott or
parcell of grounde appoynted oute for that purpose, scytuate and
beinge nere Goldinge lane in the parishe of Ste Giles withoute
Cripplegate of London, to be by him the saide Peeter Streete or
somme other sufficyent woorkmen of his provideinge and
appoyntemente and att his propper costes & chardges, for the
consideracion hereafter in theis presentes expressed, made, erected,
builded and sett upp in manner & forme followinge (that is to saie);
The frame of the saide howse to be sett square and to conteine
ffowerscore foote of lawfull assize everye waie square withoutt and
fiftie fiue foote of like assize square everye waie within, with a good
suer and stronge foundacion of pyles, brick, lyme and sand bothe
without & within, to be wroughte one foote of assize att the leiste
aboue the grounde; And the saide fframe to conteine three Stories in
heighth, the first or lower Storie to conteine Twelue foote of lawfull
assize in heighth, the second Storie Eleaven foote of lawfull assize in
heigth, and the third or vpper Storie to conteine Nyne foote of lawfull
assize in height; All which Stories shall conteine Twelue foote and a
halfe of lawfull assize in breadth througheoute, besides a juttey
forwardes in either of the saide twoe vpper Stories of Tenne ynches of
lawfull assize, with ffower convenient divisions for gentlemens
roomes, and other sufficient and convenient divisions for Twoe pennie
roomes, with necessarie seates to be placed and sett, aswell in those
roomes as througheoute all the rest of the galleries of the saide
howse, and with suchelike steares, conveyances & divisions withoute
& within, as are made & contryved in and to the late erected
Plaiehowse on the Banck in the saide parishe of Ste Saviours called
the Globe; With a Stadge and Tyreinge howse to be made, erected &
settupp within the saide fframe, with a shadowe or cover over the
saide Stadge, which Stadge shalbe placed & sett, as alsoe the
stearecases of the saide fframe, in suche sorte as is prefigured in a
plott thereof drawen, and which Stadge shall conteine in length Fortie
and Three foote of lawfull assize and in breadth to extende to the
middle of the yarde of the saide howse; The same Stadge to be paled
in belowe with good, stronge and sufficyent newe oken bourdes, and
likewise the lower Storie of the saide fframe withinside, and the same
lower storie to be alsoe laide over and fenced with stronge yron
pykes; And the saide Stadge to be in all other proporcions contryved
and fashioned like vnto the Stadge of the saide Plaie howse called the
Globe; With convenient windowes and lightes glazed to the saide
Tyreinge howse; And the saide fframe, Stadge and Stearecases to be
covered with Tyle, and to haue a sufficient gutter of lead to carrie &
convey the water frome the coveringe of the saide Stadge to fall
backwardes; And also all the saide fframe and the Stairecases thereof
to be sufficyently enclosed withoute with lathe, lyme & haire, and the
gentlemens roomes and Twoe pennie roomes to be seeled with lathe,
lyme & haire, and all the fflowers of the saide Galleries, Stories and
Stadge to be bourded with good & sufficyent newe deale bourdes of
the whole thicknes, wheare need shalbe; And the saide howse and
other thinges beforemencioned to be made & doen to be in all other
contrivitions, conveyances, fashions, thinge and thinges effected,
finished and doen accordinge to the manner and fashion of the saide
howse called the Globe, saveinge only that all the princypall and
maine postes of the saide fframe and Stadge forwarde shalbe square
and wroughte palasterwise, with carved proporcions called Satiers to
be placed & sett on the topp of every of the same postes, and
saveinge alsoe that the said Peeter Streete shall not be chardged with
anie manner of pay[ntin]ge in or aboute the saide fframe howse or
Stadge or anie parte thereof, nor rendringe the walls within, nor
seeling anie more or other roomes then the gentlemens roomes, Twoe
pennie roomes and Stadge before remembred. Nowe theiruppon the
saide Peeter Streete dothe covenant, promise and graunte ffor
himself, his executours and administratours, to and with the saide
Phillipp Henslowe and Edward Allen and either of them, and
thexecutours and administratours of them and either of them, by theis
presentes in manner & forme followeinge (that is to saie); That he the
saide Peeter Streete, his executours or assignes, shall & will att his or
their owne propper costes & chardges well, woorkmanlike &
substancyallie make, erect, sett upp and fully finishe in and by all
thinges, accordinge to the true meaninge of theis presentes, with
good, stronge and substancyall newe tymber and other necessarie
stuff, all the saide fframe and other woorkes whatsoever in and vppon
the saide plott or parcell of grounde (beinge not by anie aucthoretie
restrayned, and haveinge ingres, egres & regres to doe the same)
before the ffyue & twentith daie of Julie next commeinge after the
date hereof; And shall alsoe at his or theire like costes and chardges
provide and finde all manner of woorkmen, tymber, joystes, rafters,
boordes, dores, boltes, hinges, brick, tyle, lathe, lyme, haire, sande,
nailes, lade, iron, glasse, woorkmanshipp and other thinges
whatsoever, which shalbe needefull, convenyent & necessarie for the
saide fframe & woorkes & euerie parte thereof; And shall alsoe make
all the saide fframe in every poynte for Scantlinges lardger and bigger
in assize then the Scantlinges of the timber of the saide newe erected
howse called the Globe; And alsoe that he the saide Peeter Streete
shall furthwith, aswell by himself as by suche other and soemanie
woorkmen as shalbe convenient & necessarie, enter into and vppon
the saide buildinges and woorkes, and shall in reasonable manner
proceede therein withoute anie wilfull detraccion vntill the same
shalbe fully effected and finished. In consideracion of all which
buildinges and of all stuff & woorkemanshipp thereto belonginge, the
saide Phillipp Henslowe & Edward Allen and either of them, ffor
themselues, theire, and either of theire executours & administratours,
doe joynctlie & seuerallie covenante & graunte to & with the saide
Peeter Streete, his executours & administratours by theis presentes,
that they the saide Phillipp Henslowe & Edward Allen or one of them,
or the executours administratours or assignes of them or one of them,
shall & will well & truelie paie or cawse to be paide vnto the saide
Peeter Streete, his executours or assignes, att the place aforesaid
appoynted for the erectinge of the saide fframe, the full somme of
Fower hundred & Fortie Poundes of lawfull money of Englande in
manner & forme followeinge (that is to saie), att suche tyme and
when as the Tymber-woork of the saide fframe shalbe rayzed & sett
upp by the saide Peeter Streete his executours or assignes, or within
seaven daies then next followeinge, Twoe hundred & Twentie
poundes, and att suche time and when as the saide fframe & woorkes
shalbe fullie effected & ffynished as is aforesaide, or within seaven
daies then next followeinge, thother Twoe hundred and Twentie
poundes, withoute fraude or coven. Prouided allwaies, and it is agreed
betwene the saide parties, that whatsoever somme or sommes of
money the saide Phillipp Henslowe & Edward Allen or either of them,
or the executours or assignes of them or either of them, shall lend or
deliver vnto the saide Peter Streete his executours or assignes, or anie
other by his appoyntemente or consent, ffor or concerninge the saide
woorkes or anie parte thereof or anie stuff thereto belonginge, before
the raizeinge & settinge upp of the saide fframe, shalbe reputed,
 accepted, taken & accoumpted in parte of the firste paymente
aforesaid of the saide some of Fower hundred & Fortie poundes, and
all suche somme & sommes of money, as they or anie of them shall
as aforesaid lend or deliver betwene the razeinge of the saide fframe
& finishinge thereof and of all the rest of the saide woorkes, shalbe
reputed, accepted, taken & accoumpted in parte of the laste pamente
aforesaid of the same somme of Fower hundred & Fortie poundes,
anie thinge abouesaid to the contrary notwithstandinge. In witnes
whereof the parties abouesaid to theis presente Indentures
Interchaungeably haue sett theire handes and seales. Yeoven the daie
and yeare ffirste abouewritten.
PS
Sealed and deliuered by the saide Peter Streete in the presence of me
William Harris Pub[lic] Scr[ivener] And me Frauncis Smyth
appr[entice] to the said Scr[ivener]
[Endorsed:] Peater Streat ffor The Building of the Fortune.

The constant references in the terms of the contract to the model of

the Globe, while bearing testimony to the stimulus which the
building of the Globe had given to theatrical competition, leaves
some uncertainty as to many details of planning, and it is matter for
regret that the ‘plot’ of the stage and staircases furnished to the
builder has not itself been preserved. We learn, however, that the
house was a square one, 80 feet each way by outside and 55 feet by
inside measurement; that the stage was 43 feet wide and projected
into the middle of the yard; that the framework was of wood, on a
foundation of brick and piles, and with an outer coating of plaster;
that the framework and stage were boarded within and
strengthened with iron pikes; that there were three galleries rising to
a total height of 32 feet, and that sections of these were partitioned
off and ceiled as ‘gentlemens rooms’, of which there were four, and
‘two-penny rooms’; that the tiring-house had glazed windows; that
there was a ‘shadowe or cover’ over the stage, and that this, with
the galleries and staircases, were tiled and supplied with lead gutters
to carry off the rain-water. Two divergences from the Globe model
are specified: the timber work is to be stouter, and the principal
posts of the frame work and stage are to be square and carved with
satyrs. An ingenious attempt has been made by Mr. William Archer
and Mr. W. H. Godfrey to reconstruct the plan of the theatre from
these and other indications, with a liberal allowance of conjecture.
[1299] It will be observed that Henslowe, as well as Alleyn, was a
party to the contract; but it is pretty clear from Alleyn’s note already
referred to that he found the money, and although Henslowe did in
fact become his partner in the enterprise, this was under a lease of 4
April 1601, whereby he took over a moiety of the play-house and its
profits for a term of twenty-four years from the previous 25 March at
an annual rent of £8.[1300] This lease did not include Alleyn’s private
tenements, but it did include some enclosed ‘growndes’ on the north
and west of the house, and a passage 30 feet long by 14 feet wide
running east from the south-west angle of the building ‘from one
doore of the said house to an other’. It is, I think, to be inferred
from this that the main approach to the earlier Fortune theatre was
from the Golden Lane side. The contract with Street is dated on 8
January 1600 and provides for the completion of the work by the
following 25 July, and for the payment of the price in two
instalments, one when the framework was up and the other upon
completion. In fact, however, the acquittances by Street and others,
endorsed upon the Dulwich indenture, show that Henslowe acted as
a kind of banker for the transaction, and made advances from time
to time to Street, or to pay workmen or purchase materials, all of
which were debited against the amounts payable under the contract.
Work seems to have begun before 17 January. By 20 March
Henslowe had paid £180 and by 4 May £240. It is therefore a little
puzzling to find a payment ‘at the eand of the fowndations’ on 8
May. About £53 more was paid before 10 June, making nearly £300
in all by that date. The last entry is one of 4s. to Street ‘to pasify
him’, which suggests that some dispute had taken place. Here the
acquittances stop, but Henslowe’s Diary indicates that he was
frequently dining in company with Street from 13 June to August 8,
and probably the work was completed about the latter date.[1301]
Alleyn had had to face some opposition in carrying out his project.
He began by arming himself with the authority of his ‘lord’, the Earl
of Nottingham, who wrote in his favour to the Middlesex justices on
12 January 1600, explaining the reasons for leaving the Bankside
and the general convenience of the new locality, and citing the
Queen’s ‘special regarde of fauor’ towards the company as a reason
why the justices should allow his servant to build ‘wthout anie yor lett
or molestation’. This action did not prove sufficient to avert a local
protest. Lord Willoughby and others complained to the Council, who
on 9 March wrote to the Middlesex justices informing them that the
erection of a new play-house, ‘wherof ther are to manie allreadie not
farr from that place’, would greatly displease the Queen, and
commanding the project to be ‘staied’. Alleyn, however, was secure
in the royal favour. He also, by offering a weekly contribution to the
relief of the poor, succeeded in obtaining a certificate from the petty
officials and other inhabitants of Finsbury of their consent to the
toleration of the house; and on 8 April the Council wrote again to the
justices, withdrawing their previous inhibition and laying special
stress on Elizabeth’s desire that Alleyn personally should revive his
services as a player, ‘wheareof, of late he hath made
discontynuance’. The letter also referred to the fact that another
house was pulled down instead of the Fortune, and a formal Privy
Council order of 22 June, laying down that there shall in future be
one house in Middlesex for the Admiral’s men, and one on the
Bankside for the Chamberlain’s, makes it clear that the condemned
theatre was the Curtain.[1302] Nevertheless, it is certain that neither
the Curtain nor the Rose was in fact plucked down at this date.
The Fortune was opened in the autumn of 1600 by the Admiral’s
men, probably with Dekker’s 1 Fortune’s Tennis, and its theatrical
history is closely bound up with that of the same company, who
occupied it continuously, as the Admiral’s to 1603, then as Prince
Henry’s men to his death in 1612, and finally as the Palsgrave’s men.
It is only necessary to deal here with matters that directly concern
the building. That it became something of a centre of disturbance in
the peaceful suburbs of the north-west is shown by various entries in
the records of the Middlesex Bench. On 26 February 1611, two
butchers, Ralph Brewyn and John Lynsey, were charged with abusing
gentlemen there. On 1 October 1612, the justices regarded it as the
resort of cutpurses, and were thereby led to suppress the jigs at the
end of plays, which especially attracted such persons. In 1613 a true
bill was found against Richard Bradley for stabbing Nicholas Bedney
there on 5 June.[1303] The upkeep of the structure was expensive. A
note in Alleyn’s hand of sums laid out upon the play-house during
the seven years 1602–8 shows an average amount of about £120.
Only £4 2s. was spent during 1603, for the greater part of which
year the theatres were closed, but £232 1s. 8d. in 1604.[1304] No
doubt wooden buildings, open to the weather, perished rapidly. It is
not unreasonable to suppose that the relations between the
company and their landlords were much what they had been at the
Rose; that is to say that the latter took half the gallery receipts and
bore repairs, while the former took the rest of the receipts and met
all other outgoings. An unexecuted draft lease to Thomas Downton
of 1608 indicates that Alleyn and Henslowe then had it in mind to
bind the company more closely to the theatre, by dividing a quarter
of their interest amongst the eight members of the company.[1305]
Possibly the plan was carried out. In asking a loan from Alleyn on a
date apparently earlier than August 1613, Charles Massye, who was
one of the eight, not only offers repayment out of his ‘gallery mony’
and ‘house mony’, but also the assignment of ‘that lyttell moete I
have in the play housses’ as a security.[1306] Certainly the company
took over the house after Henslowe’s death on 6 January 1616. His
share in the building passed to his widow, who contemplated a sale
of it to Gregory Franklyn, Drew Stapley, and John Hamond.[1307] But
the deed remained unexecuted at her death in 1617, and the whole
property was now once more in Alleyn’s hands. On 31 October 1618
he leased it to the company for £200 a year, to be reduced to £120
at his death. With it went a taphouse occupied by Mark Brigham, the
rent of a two-room tenement held by John Russell, and a strip of
impaled ground 123 feet by 17 feet, lying next the passage on the
south.[1308] This is perhaps the garden in which, according to John
Chamberlain, the players, ‘not to be overcome with courtesy’,
banqueted the Spanish ambassador when he visited the theatre on
16 July 1621.[1309] John Russell is presumably the same whose
appointment by Alleyn as a ‘gatherer’ lead to a protest from William
Bird on behalf of the company.[1310] A few months after the
ambassador’s visit, John Chamberlain records the destruction of the
Fortune on 9 December 1621:[1311]
‘On Sonday night here was a great fire at the Fortune in Golden-
Lane, the fayrest play-house in this towne. It was quite burnt downe
in two howres, & all their apparell & play-bookes lost, wherby those
poore companions are quite undone.’

Alleyn also notes the event in his diary.[1312] On 20 May 1622 he

formed a syndicate, and leased to it the site at a rent of £128 6s.,
under an obligation to build a new theatre at a cost of £1,000.[1313]
This, ‘a large round brick building’, was erected in the following year.
[1314] The site conveyed covered a space of almost exactly 130 feet
square, and on it had stood, besides the buildings named in the
lease of 1618, other tenements, in one of which William Bird himself
lived. Mr. Lawrence has suggested that the new Fortune may have
been a roofed-in house, but his evidence is hardly sufficient to
outweigh the explicit statement of Wright that it ‘lay partly open to
the weather, and there they always acted by daylight’.[1315] This can
hardly refer only to the earlier building. The Fortune was dismantled
in 1649 and ‘totally demolished’ by 1662, and the façade still extant
in 1819 cannot therefore have belonged to it, although it may have
belonged to a Restoration ‘nursery’ for young actors, possibly upon
the same site.[1316] No acting seems to have taken place at the
Fortune after 1649.[1317]

xiii. THE BOAR’S HEAD

There appear to have been at least six city inns under this sign.
[1318] The most famous was that on the south side of Great
Eastcheap, in St. Michael’s, which seems to have been regarded in
the middle of the sixteenth century as the traditional locality of the
tavern scenes in Henry IV.[1319] This inn was in the occupation of
Joan Broke, widow, in 1537, and in that of Thomas Wright, vintner,
about 1588.[1320] Another Boar’s Head stood ‘without’ Aldgate, in
the extra-mural Portsoken ward, which lay between that gate and
the bars with which the liberties of the City terminated at Hog Lane.
Here, according to Stowe, there were ‘certaine faire Innes for receipt
of trauellers repayring to the Citie’.[1321] At the Aldgate inn had been
produced in 1557 a ‘lewd’ play called The Sackful of Newes, which
provoked the interference of Mary’s Privy Council.[1322] But it seems
to me exceedingly improbable that either this or the Eastcheap inn
was converted into the play-house, of which we have brief and
tantalizing records in the seventeenth century. Both were within the
City jurisdiction, where the licensing of play-houses seems to have
definitely terminated in 1596. It is true that a Privy Council letter of
31 March 1602, which directs that the combined company of
Oxford’s and Worcester’s men shall be allowed to play at the Boar’s
Head, is addressed to the Lord Mayor.[1323] But so are other letters
of the same type, the object of which is to limit plays to a small
number of houses outside the liberties, and to restrain them
elsewhere over the whole area of the City and the suburbs.[1324]
And when, a year or two later, Worcester’s men became Queen
Anne’s, and a draft patent was drawn up to confirm their right to
play in the Curtain and the Boar’s Head, both houses are described,
not as in the City, but as ‘within our County of Middlesex’.[1325]
Presumably Anne’s men left the Boar’s Head when the Red Bull
became available for their use in 1606, and Mr. Adams has explained
a mention, which had long puzzled me, of the Duke of York’s men as
‘the Prince’s Players of Whitechapel’ in 1608 by the suggestion that
they succeeded to the vacant theatre.[1326] If this is so, I think it
affords further evidence for the theory that the Boar’s Head,
although it may have taken its name from the Aldgate inn, was not
itself that inn, and probably not a converted inn at all, but lay just
outside and not just inside the City bars. For, although part of the
street between Aldgate and Whitechapel is sometimes called, as in
Ogilby’s map of 1677 and Rocque’s of 1746, ‘Whitechapel Street’, yet
Whitechapel proper lay outside the liberties, farther to the east along
the Mile End Road.[1327] The only other contemporary record of the
Boar’s Head is a letter to Edward Alleyn from his wife Joan on 21
October 1603, in which she says, ‘All the companyes be come hoame
& well for ought we knowe, but that Browne of the Boares head is
dead & dyed very pore, he went not into the countrye at all’.[1328]
This Browne cannot be identified, and it is perhaps idle to conjecture
that he may have been related to Robert Browne, and that it may
have been at the Boar’s Head that the latter played with Derby’s
men in 1599–1601. The Boar’s Head seems to have been generally
forgotten by the Restoration, but is recalled by the Marquis of
Newcastle c. 1660.[1329]

xiv. THE RED BULL

[Bibliographical Note.—The records of the suit of Woodford v.
Holland (1613) were printed by J. Greenstreet in the Athenaeum for
28 Nov. 1885 from Court of Requests Books, xxvi, ff. 780, 890, and
cxxviii, and therefrom by Fleay, 194; and more fully with those of the
later suit of 1619 (misdated 1620) by C. W. Wallace in Nebraska
University Studies, ix. 291 (cited as W. v. H.). Collier, i. 374, mentions
evidence on the same transactions as ‘in the Audit Office’, and
misnames the complainant John Woodward.]
Our chief knowledge of the early history of the Red Bull is derived
from disputes before the Court of Requests in 1613 and 1619
between Thomas Woodford and Aaron Holland. It appears that
Holland held a lease of the site, which was at the upper end of St.
John Street in the parish of St. James, Clerkenwell, from Anne,
widow and executrix of Christopher Bedingfield, and had there built
a play-house. The indication of a Red Bull Yard in Ogilby and
Morgan’s map of 1677 to the west of St. John Street, and just north
of the angle which it forms with Clerkenwell Green, no doubt defines
the locality with some precision.[1330] In 3 Jac. I, that is, at some
date between 24 March 1605 and 23 March 1606, he assigned one-
seventh of the house to Thomas Swynnerton, ‘with a gatherers place
thereto belonging’. This Swynnerton transferred for £50 to Philip
Stone.[1331] It was subject to a rent of £2 10s., and Holland gave
Stone an indenture in February 1609, which was alleged not to
constitute a proper lease. In 1612–13 Stone sold his seventh for £50
to Woodford, who took profits for a quarter, and then entrusted his
interest to Holland, instructing his servant Anthony Payne to pay the
rent. He alleged that Holland persuaded Payne to be behindhand
with the rent, and withheld the profits, estimated at £30 a year. He
therefore brought his action a little before May 1613. The Court
called upon Holland to show cause why he should not account for
the arrears of profits, and for 1s. 6d. a week due to the gatherer’s
place.[1332] Holland replied, and the issues were referred to the
arbitration of counsel, including Woodford’s ‘demaund of the
eighteenth penny and the eighteenth part of such moneys & other
comodities as should be collected or receaued ... for the profittes of
the galleries or other places in or belonging to the play howse’.[1333]
Counsel made an arrangement, but did not agree in their reports of
its terms, and the Court ordered Holland to give Woodford an
indenture similar to that given to Stone.[1334] Holland got a writ of
prohibition from the King’s Bench, always jealous of the jurisdiction
of the Court of Requests, on 6 November 1613, and Woodford began
a suit against Holland in Stone’s name for not making a proper
indenture in 1609. This, he says, Stone conspired with Holland to
withdraw. In 1619 he brought another action for his profits before
the Court of Requests, in which Holland describes him as ‘Woodford,
alias Simball’, but the result is unknown.
The Red Bull, then, was built not later and probably not much
earlier than 1606, a little before the first recorded mention of it in
the following passage from The Knight of the Burning Pestle, which
was almost certainly produced in the winter of 1607:
‘Citizen. Why so sir, go and fetch me him then, and let the Sophy of
Persia come and christen him a childe.
‘Boy. Beleeue me sir, that will not doe so well, ’tis stale, it has
beene had before at the red Bull.’[1335]
The allusion is to an incident in the last scene of Day, Rowley, and
Wilkins’ Travels of the Three Brothers.[1336] This, according to the
entry in the Stationers’ Register on 29 June 1607, was played at the
Curtain, and according to its title-page of 1607 by the Queen’s men.
But there is no reason why it should not also have been played at
the Red Bull, since both houses are specified as occupied by the
Queen’s men in their patent of 15 April 1609. In their earlier draft
patent of about 1603–4, the Boar’s Head and Curtain are named,
and in a Privy Council letter of 9 April 1604 the Curtain only.
Presumably, therefore, the Red Bull was taken into use by the
Queen’s men, of whom Swynnerton was one, as soon as it was built
at some date between 1604 and 1606. The Red Bull is one of the
three houses whose contention is predicted in Dekker’s Raven’s
Almanack of 1608, and Dekker refers to it again in his Work for
Armourers, written during the plague of 1609, when the bear garden
was open and the theatres closed. He says, ‘The pide Bul heere
keepes a tossing and a roaring, when the Red Bull dares not stir’.
[1337] Its existence caused trouble from time to time to the
Middlesex justices. At the end of May 1610, William Tedcastle,
yeoman, and John Fryne, Edward Brian, Edward Purfett, and
Thomas Williams, felt-makers, were called upon to give
recognisances to answer for a ‘notable outrage at the play-house
called the Red Bull’; and on 3 March 1614 Alexander Fulsis was
bailed out on a charge of picking Robert Sweet’s pocket of a purse
and £3 at this theatre.[1338] Further references to it are to be found
in Wither’s Abuses Stript and Whipt (1613), in Tomkis’s Albumazar
(1615), and in Gayton’s Pleasant Notes on Don Quixot (1654).[1339]
An entry in Alleyn’s Diary for 1617 has been supposed to indicate
that he had an interest in the Red Bull. To me it only suggests that
he sold the actors there a play.[1340]
The Queen’s men most likely occupied the Red Bull at least until
1617 when, as shown by the lawsuit of 1623, they were on the point
of moving to the Cockpit in Drury Lane. Plays of theirs were printed
as acted there in 1608, 1611, 1612, and 1615. Swetnam the Woman
Hater Arraigned by Women, printed in 1620, was also played there,
before Anne’s death in 1619. In 1637 Thomas Heywood, formerly
one of the Queen’s men, included in his Pleasant Dialogues and
Dramas, a Prologue and Epilogue, to which he prefixed the note ‘A
young witty lad playing the part of Richard the third: at the Red Bull:
the Author because hee was interessed in the play to incourage him,
wrot him this Prologue and Epilogue’.[1341] This was probably, and
certainly if the play was Shakespeare’s, some quite exceptional
performance. Similarly the ‘companie of young men of this citie’, who
are stated on the title-page of Wentworth Smith’s Hector of Germany
(1615) to have acted it at the Red Bull and Curtain, must be
supposed to have used these theatres by some arrangement with
the Queen’s men.
The Red Bull afterwards passed to other companies, continued in
use up to, and even occasionally during, the Commonwealth, and
had a revived life after the Restoration to 1663.[1342] Before 1633,
and probably before 1625, it had been re-edified and enlarged.[1343]
Mr. Lawrence suggests that at this time it became a roofed house,
which it seems certainly to have been after the Restoration.[1344]
But it is difficult to get away from Wright’s explicit statement that it
‘lay partly open to the weather, and there they always acted by
daylight’.[1345] Nor need the quite modern identification of it with
the roofed interior depicted in The Wits rest upon anything but an
incidental reference to the house in the text of the pamphlet.[1346]
Nothing is known as to the shape or galleries of the Red Bull.

xv. THE HOPE

[Bibliographical Note.—The Dulwich papers relating to the
connexion of Henslowe and Alleyn with the bear-baiting and the Hope
are to be found with a commentary in Greg, Henslowe’s Diary and
Henslowe Papers. Valuable material on the Bankside localities is in W.
Rendle, The Bankside, Southwark, and the Globe, 1877 (Appendix I to
Furnivall, Harrison’s Description of England, Part II, with a
reconstructed map of the Bankside and a 1627 plan of Paris Garden),
Old Southwark and its People (1878), The Play-houses at Bankside in
 the Time of Shakespeare (1885, Walford’s Antiquarian, vii. 207, 274;
viii. 55), Paris Garden and Blackfriars (1887, 7 N. Q. iii. 241, 343,
442). Some notes of Eu. Hood [Joseph Haslewood] in 1813 and A. J.
K[empe] in 1833 are reprinted in The Gentleman’s Magazine Library,
xv (1904), 74, 117. Other writings on Paris Garden are by W. H.
Overall (1869) in Proc. Soc. Antiq. 2nd series, iv. 195, J. Meymott, The
Manor of Old Paris Garden (1881), P. Norman, The Accounts of the
Overseers of the Poor of Paris Garden, Southwark, 1608–1671 (1901)
in Surrey Arch. Colls. xvi. 55. Since I wrote this chapter, C. L.
Kingsford (1920, Arch. lxx. 155) has added valuable material.]
It is convenient, in connexion with the Hope, to deal with the
whole rather troublesome question of the Bankside Bear Gardens.
The ursarius or bearward was a recognized type of mediaeval
mimus, and the rewards in which his welcome found expression are
a recurring item in many a series of municipal or domestic accounts.
Thus, to take one example only, the corporation of Shrewsbury
entertained between 1483 and 1542 the ursinarii, ursuarii, or
ursiatores of the King, the Dukes of Norfolk and Suffolk, the
Marquises of Dorset and Exeter, the Earl of Derby, and the town of
Norwich.[1347] On more than one occasion the payment is said to be
pro agitacione bestiarum suarum. The phrase is perhaps not free
from ambiguity. The dancing bear was, until quite recently, a familiar
sight in provincial England, and I have seen one even on the
sophisticated slopes of Notting Hill. And illuminations dating back as
far as the tenth century bear evidence to the antiquity of his
somewhat grotesque tripudium.[1348] But in the robust days of our
forefathers there was an even more attractive way of agitating
bears. The traditional victim of an English baiting was no doubt the
bull. A Southwark map of 1542 shows a ‘Bolrynge’ in the middle of
the High Street and a neighbouring alley still bore the name in 1561.
[1349] The maps of Höfnagel (c. 1560) and Agas (c. 1570) show
another ring, marked ‘The bolle bayting’ and with a very palpable
bull inside it, upon the Bankside, not far from where the Hope must
afterwards have stood.[1350] But the bear was also baited in London,
at least from the twelfth century.[1351] Erasmus is often cited as
declaring that in the reign of Henry VIII ‘herds’ of the animal were
kept for the purpose. This is an error. Erasmus wrote of dancing
bears; but I am afraid it must be assumed that the chief function of
the bearward attached to the Tudor Royal Household was to provide
exhibitions of the more brutal, noisy, and occasionally dangerous
sport.[1352] A regular office is traceable back to 1484, when Richard
III in the first year of his reign appointed his bearward John Browne
to be ‘Maister, Guyder and Ruler of all our Beres and Apes’.[1353] It
was still a part of the establishment of the Royal Household under
Elizabeth. A patent of 2 June 1573 to Ralph Bowes describes it as
‘the room or office of Cheif Master Overseer and Ruler of all and
singular our game pastymes and sportes, that is to saie of all and
everie our beares bulles and mastyve dogges’, and names as
Bowes’s predecessors Cuthbert Vaughan and Sir Richard Long.[1354]
The grant was of the nature of a commission, authorizing the holder,
personally or by deputy, to ‘take up’ or press animals for the royal
service, and giving him the sole right of baiting the Queen’s bears, to
the exclusion of any other officer or under officer appertaining to the
bears, not specially licensed or appointed by him. The Master was
presumably expected to make his profit out of the privileges
granted, for the patent did not assign him any fee, such as the
under officers, known as the Keepers of Bears and Mastiffs, enjoyed
at the hands of the Treasurer of the Chamber.[1355] But he received
a reward, similar to those given to players, of £5 through the
Treasurer on the Council’s warrant, when the baiting was shown
before the Queen. These rewards are generally expressed as ‘for the
Game of Paris Garden’ or ‘to the Master of her Majesty’s Game at
Paris Garden’; and Bowes must have joined sons or other relatives
with him as deputies, since Edward Bowes and Thomas Bowes were
often payees instead of Ralph Bowes during his term of office.[1356]
Towards the end of Bowes’s life it would seem that Henslowe and
Alleyn, who had been baiting bears on the Bankside as licensees
since 1594, were in negotiation to obtain the Mastership.[1357]
Probably the first idea was to buy a surrender of the office from
Bowes, since the Dulwich manuscripts contain an unexecuted draft
of a patent to Henslowe, following the terms of that to Bowes
himself and reciting such a surrender.[1358] I should suppose this
negotiation to be that in connexion with which Henslowe spent £2
15s. 6d. during 1597 upon visits to Sir Julius Caesar, Master of
Requests, and other Court officials, and in a fee to the Clerk of the
Signet. The expenditure is entered in the diary as incurred ‘a bowt
the changinge of ower comysion’.[1359] But before a surrender was
effected it would seem that Henslowe had had to turn his thoughts
to a succession. In this he was disappointed. On 4 June 1598 he
wrote to Alleyn that Bowes was very sick and expected to die, and
that he much feared he should lose all. Neither Caesar nor the Lord
Admiral had done anything for him, and although he had received
help from Lady Edmondes and Mr. Langworth, he now learnt that
the reversion of the Mastership was already promised by the Queen
to one Mr. Dorrington, a pensioner.[1360] Bowes did in effect die very
shortly after, and on 11 August 1598 John Dorrington received his
patent for the Mastership.[1361] To this was joined the office of
Keeper of the Bandogs and Mastiffs, with a fee of 10d. a day for
exercising this office and keeping twenty mastiff bitches, and a
further fee of 4d. for a deputy.[1362] It is not unlikely that John
Dorrington was related to the Richard Darrington who had held this
keepership with the same fees, amounting to £21 5s. 10d. a year, in
1571. Another keepership, that of the Bears, was held in 1599 by
Jacob Meade, who was closely associated with Henslowe and Alleyn
in the management of the Bear garden.[1363] Dorrington’s grant was
confirmed by James I on 14 July 1603, and on 23 July he was
knighted.[1364] About this time Henslowe and Alleyn, who were
paying Dorrington £40 a year for licence to bait,[1365] must have
contemplated fresh negotiations for a transfer of the patent, for the
draft in the Dulwich manuscripts, originally drawn up about 1597,
has been altered by Henslowe so as to adapt it to the new reign and
to a surrender by Dorrington.[1366] But once again they were
unsuccessful, for Dorrington died, and on 20 July 1604 the
Mastership was granted to one of the invading Scots, Sir William
Stuart.[1367] From him, however, Henslowe and Alleyn did succeed in
obtaining an assignment, and a draft patent as joint Masters and
Keepers, with the fees of 10d. and 4d., is dated 24 November 1604.
They had, indeed, been rather in Stuart’s hands, for he had refused
either to give them a licence or to take over their house and bears,
and they had to pay for the surrender at what they considered the
high rate of £450.[1368] This we learn from a petition of about 1607,
in which they appealed to the King for an increase in the daily fee by
2s. 8d., in view of their losses through restraints and the deaths of
bears, and of their heavy expenses, amounting to £200 a month,
whereby their privilege, which was once worth £100 a year, could
now not be let at all.[1369] It is doubtful whether they got any relief.
They had a new patent on 24 November 1608;[1370] but about 1612
they sent up another petition in very similar terms. A grant of £42
10s. and 12d. a day had, indeed, been made them in March 1611 for
keeping a lion and two white bears. But this was probably menagerie
work and quite apart from the baiting. They continued as joint
Masters until Henslowe’s death in 1616, when the whole office
passed to Alleyn in survivorship.[1371]
When baiting seemed desirable to the soul of the sovereign, the
‘game’ was generally brought to the Court, wherever the Court
might happen to be.[1372] The rewards of the Treasurer of the
Chamber were most often for attendances in the Christmas holidays
or at Whitsuntide. But the game might be called for at any time to
add lustre to the entertainment of an ambassador or other
distinguished visitor to Court. Thus on 25 May 1559 French
ambassadors dined with Elizabeth, ‘and after dener to bear and bull
baytyng, and the Quens grace and the embassadurs stod in the
galere lokyng of the pastym tyll vj at nyght’.[1373] Later French
embassies of 1561, 1572, 1581, and 1599, and a Danish embassy of
1586 were similarly honoured.[1374] The custom continued during
the next reign. On 19 August 1604 there was a grand banquet at
Whitehall for Juan Fernandez de Velasco, Constable of Castile, on
the completion of peace between England and Spain, and thereafter
a ball, and after the ball ‘all then took their places at the windows of
the room which looked out upon a square, where a platform was
raised, and a vast crowd had assembled to see the King’s bears fight
with greyhounds. This afforded great amusement. Presently a bull,
tied to the end of a rope, was fiercely baited by dogs.’[1375] James
had introduced a new and dangerous element into the sport by
using the lions which were kept in the Tower, and this also became
the scene of baitings. On 5 March 1607 the Treasurer of the
Chamber paid Henslowe and Alleyn no less than £30, partly for
attendances with the game at Greenwich during the visit of the King
of Denmark and at Whitehall during that of the Prince de Joinville,
and partly for baiting of the lions in the Tower on three several
occasions.[1376] Stowe gives detailed descriptions of lion-baitings in
1604, 1605, 1609, and 1610, of which the first is interesting,
because it was under the personal superintendence of Edward
Alleyn, ‘now sworne the Princes man and Maister of the Beare
Garden’.[1377]
But the profit of the thing, from the point of view of the Master of
the Game, was not so much in the attendances at Court, as in the
public baitings, which he and those holding licences from him were
privileged to give with the bears and dogs, ‘taken up’ by virtue of the
commission or bought at their own expense, during such times as
these were not required for the royal service. These public
spectacles were held at what was known as the Bear Garden, under
conditions much resembling those of a theatre. They played a
considerable part in the life of London; literature is full of allusions to
them; and they are described with more or less detail in the
narratives of many travellers from abroad. An early account is that
from the Spanish of a secretary to the Duke of Najera, who visited
Henry VIII in 1544.[1378] He describes the bears as baited daily, with
three or four dogs to each bear, in an enclosure where they were
tied with ropes, and adds:
‘Into the same place they brought a pony with an ape fastened on
its back, and to see the animal kicking amongst the dogs, with the
 screams of the ape, beholding the curs hanging from the ears and
neck of the pony, is very laughable.’
In 1559 the same French ambassadors, who saw the baiting at
Whitehall, were taken on the following day to Paris Garden, and ‘ther
was boyth bare and bull baytyng, and the capten with a c. of the
gard to kepe rowme for them to see the baytyng’.[1379] The next
notice of any value is that of Lupold von Wedel, who was at
Southwark on 23 August 1584.[1380]
‘There is a round building three stories high, in which are kept
about a hundred large English dogs, with separate wooden kennels
for each of them. These dogs were made to fight singly with three
bears, the second bear being larger than the first and the third larger
than the second. After this a horse was brought in and chased by the
dogs, and at last a bull, who defended himself bravely. The next was
that a number of men and women came forward from a separate
compartment, dancing, conversing and fighting with each other: also
a man who threw some white bread among the crowd, that scrambled
for it. Right over the middle of the place a rose was fixed, this rose
being set on fire by a rocket: suddenly lots of apples and pears fell
out of it down upon the people standing below. Whilst the people
were scrambling for the apples, some rockets were made to fall down
upon them out of the rose, which caused a great fright but amused
the spectators. After this, rockets and other fireworks came flying out
of all corners, and that was the end of the play.’
It is interesting to observe that the baiting proper was supplemented
with fireworks and an entertainment, which must have been of the
nature of a jig.[1381] The visit of Frederick, Duke of Württemberg, on
1 September 1592, is also recorded by his secretary, who says:[1382]
‘His Highness was shown in London the English dogs, of which
there were about 120, all kept in the same enclosure, but each in a
separate kennel. In order to gratify his Highness, and at his desire,
two bears and a bull were baited; at such times you can perceive the
breed and mettle of the dogs, for although they receive serious
injuries from the bears, are caught by the horns of the bull, and
tossed into the air so as frequently to fall down again upon the horns,
they do not give in, so that one is obliged to pull them back by their
tails, and force open their jaws. Four dogs at once were set on the
bull; they, however, could not gain any advantage over him, for he so
 artfully contrived to ward off their attacks that they could not well get
at him; on the contrary, the bull served them very scurvily by striking
and butting at them.’
De Witt briefly notices the ‘amphitheatrum’ of the Bear Garden in
1596. He says:[1383]
‘Est etiam quintum sed dispari [vsu?] et structura, bestiarum
concertationi destinatum, in quo multi vrsi, tauri, et stupendae
magnitudinis canes discretis caueis et septis aluntur, qui ad pugnam
adseruantur, iocundissimum hominibus spectaculum praebentes.’

Hentzner, who visited London in the autumn of 1598, says:[1384]

‘Est et alius postea locus Theatri quoque formam habens, Ursorum
& Taurorum venationibus destinatus, qui à postica parte alligati à
magnis illis canibus & molossis Anglicis, quos lingua vernacula Docken
appellant, mire exagitantur, ita tamen, ut saepe canes isti ab Ursis vel
Tauris, dentibus arrepti, vel cornibus impetiti, de vita periclitari,
aliquando etiam animam exhalare soleant, quibus sic vel sauciis vel
lassis statim substituuntur alii recentes & magis alacres. Accedit
aliquando in fine hujus spectaculi Ursi plane excaecati flagellatio, ubi
quinque, vel sex, in circulo constituti, Ursum flagellis misere excipiunt,
qui licet alligatus auffugere nequeat, alacriter tamen se defendit,
circumstantes, & nimium appropinquantes, nisi recte & provide sibi
caveant, prosternit, ac flagella e manibus cadentium eripit atque
confringit.’

To 1599 belongs the account of Thomas Platter of Basle:[1385]

‘The London bearbaitings usually take place every Sunday and
Wednesday, across the water. The play house is built in circular form;
above are a number of seated galleries; the ground space under the
open sky is unoccupied. In the midst of this a great bear is fastened
to a stake by a long rope. When we came down the stairs, we went
behind the play house, and saw the English dogs, of which there were
about 120 chained up, each in his separate kennel, in a yard.’
Platter also describes the actual baiting of the bull and bear and of
the blind bear, much as did his predecessors. On 7 September 1601
the Duc de Biron was taken to the Bear Garden, as one of the sights
of London, by no less a cicerone than Sir Walter Raleigh.[1386] A visit
of 16 September 1602 is described in the diary of Philip Julius, Duke
of Stettin in Pomerania.[1387] The vogue of the Bear Garden
amongst foreigners evidently lasted into James’s reign, but the
notices are briefer. Lewis Frederick of Württemberg, saw on 26 April
1610 the baiting both of bears and bulls ‘and monkeys that ride on
horseback’;[1388] and Justus Zingerling of Thuringia, who was in
London about the same year, mentions the ‘theatra comoedorum, in
which bears and bulls fight with dogs’.[1389] Even more summary is
the reference in an itinerary of Prince Otto von Hesse-Cassel in
1611.[1390] But the extracts given sufficiently describe the nature of
the sport, and show that bulls continued to be baited up to a late
date, as well as bears, and that the serious business of the spectacle
was diversified by regular humorous episodes, such as the monkey
on horseback and the whipping of the blind bear. He, by the way,
was called Harry Hunks, and is named by Sir John Davies in his
Epigrams[1391] of c. 1594, in company with the Sackerson who gave
rise to a boast on the part of Master Slender,[1392] and at a later
date by Dekker[1393] and Henry Peacham.[1394] Two other famous
bears were Ned Whiting and George Stone. Both are alluded to in
Ben Jonson’s Epicoene (1609),[1395] and the latter also in The
Puritan (1607).[1396] The death of the ‘goodlye beare’ George Stone
at a baiting before the King of Denmark in 1606 is lamented in the
petition of Henslowe and Alleyn to the King for increased fees
already described. One other interesting notice of the sport may be
added from the Dulwich collection, and that is an advertisement or
‘bill’ of the entertainment, which runs as follows:
‘Tomorrowe beinge Thursdaie shalbe seen at the Beargardin on the
banckside a greate mach plaid by the gamstirs of Essex who hath
chalenged all comers what soeuer to plaie v dogges at the single
beare for v pounds and also to wearie a bull dead at the stake and for
your better content shall haue plasant sport with the horse and ape
and whiping of the blind beare. Viuat Rex.’[1397]
Where then was the Bear Garden? This is a point upon which the
foreign visitors are not very explicit. From them we could infer little
more than that it was transpontine. It has already been pointed out
that in official documents, at any rate those of a less formal
character than a patent under the great seal, the Mastership is
described as the Mastership of the Game of, or at, Paris Garden.
With this common parlance agrees.[1398] In the allusions of the
pamphleteers and poets, from the middle of the sixteenth to the
middle of the seventeenth century, Paris or Parish Garden is
regularly the place of baiting.[1399] ‘The Beare-garden, commonly
called Paris Garden’, says Stowe, speaking of 1583.[1400] At Paris
Garden, or as it is sometimes corruptly spelt, ‘Pallas Garden’,
Henslowe and Alleyn have their office as Masters[1401] in 1607, and
near it Alleyn is living in 1609. Now the Liberty and Manor of Paris
Garden is a quite well defined part of the Bankside. It lay at the
extreme west end, bordering upon Lambeth Marsh, with the Clink
upon its east. In it stood from about 1595 the most westerly of the
theatres, the Swan.[1402] Historians of Southwark are fond of
suggesting that it had been the abode of the bears from an almost
immemorial antiquity, and follow a late edition of Blount’s
seventeenth-century Glossographia in connecting it with the domus
of a certain Robert de Parys, near which the butchers of London
were ordered to throw their garbage in 1393.[1403] I think the idea is
that the garbage was found useful for feeding the bears. This theory
I believe to be as much a myth as Taylor the water-poet’s derivation
of the name from Paris, son of Priam. Parish, rather than Paris
Garden, seems, in fact, to be the earlier form, although there is
nothing in the history of the place that very particularly explains it.
[1404] Many residents in London were of course ‘de Parys’ in the
fourteenth century, and the domus of the Robert in question, who
lived some time after the first mention of ‘Parish’ Garden, was pretty
clearly on the City and not the Surrey side of the river.[1405] It is,
however, the case that before the Civil War the Butchers’ Company
had been accustomed to send their offal by a beadle to ‘two barrow
houses, conveniently placed on the river side, for the provision and
feeding of the King’s Game of Bears’, and were directed to resume
the practice after the Restoration; and possibly this is what misled
Blount.[1406] Obviously, however, what the butchers did in the
seventeenth century is no proof of what they did in the fourteenth.
And, in fact, the ordinance of 1393 is explicit in its direction that the
offal is ultimately to be, not devoured by bears, but cast into mid-
stream.
There is in fact nothing, so far as I know, to locate the royal
Game on the Bankside at all until the middle of the sixteenth
century, when it was already hard by the stews in the Liberty of the
Clink, and still less, except the persistence of the name, to locate it
definitely in the Liberty of Paris Garden.[1407] The notice which
brings Paris Garden nearest is in Foxe’s Book of Martyrs, which
contains an account of an adventure of one Ralph Morice, secretary
to Cranmer, who was foolish enough to take a book of his master’s,
containing criticisms of the Six Articles, in a wherry from
Westminster Bridge to Paul’s Wharf. It chanced that Henry VIII ‘was
then in his barge with a great number of barges and boats about
him, then baiting of bears in the water, over against the Bank’. The
waterman stopped to see the fun, and the bear broke loose, and
climbed into the wherry, which upset. The dangerous book fell into
the Thames and was picked up by the bearward, who was the Lady
Elizabeth’s bearward and ‘an arrant Papist’. It was only through the
good offices of Cromwell that Morice escaped serious trouble. This
was about July 1539.[1408] Certainly it was the custom from an early
date to moor the King’s barge off Paris Garden.[1409] The spot was
marked later by the Old Barge Stairs, which stood at the west end of
that part of the Bank lying in front of the Garden, just as Paris
Garden Stairs stood at its east end. But the barge was not
necessarily at its moorings when Henry was baiting from it. Mr.
Ordish suggests that it was the common use of Paris Garden Stairs
by visitors to the baiting, which led to the name being transferred to
the Bear Garden itself, without any one troubling to inquire very
minutely whether it stood a little to the east or a little to the west of
the landing.[1410] On the whole, however, I regard it as reasonably
probable that there was at one time a Bear Garden in the Liberty,
which fixed the traditional name for the sport, even after it had been
transferred farther along the Bank.[1411] It may, perhaps, be a slight
confirmation of this view that the 1627 survey of Paris Garden shows
a space, apparently laid out as a garden and arranged as a circle
within a square, which may represent the site. It stands nearly
opposite Paris Garden Stairs in a triangular bit of ground between
Holland Street and the lane leading to Copt Hall. This seems to have
been rather a desolate region in Elizabeth’s reign, at any rate when
you got beyond the row of houses which lined the bank.[1412] If
there was a Bear Garden there, it had clearly been abandoned some
little time before 1546, as the Stews were then ‘the accustomed
place’. Somewhat later, the maps of Höfnagel (c. 1560) and Agas (c.
1570) show, in addition to the Bull ring already mentioned, another
ring marked ‘The Beare bayting’, standing immediately west of it,
and like it in the Clink.[1413] The animals at the stake are discernible
in the rings, and to the south of each stretches a yard with a pond in
the middle and kennelled dogs along the sides. It is in the Clink, too,
that Norden in 1593 shows ‘The Beare howse’, a little west and north
of ‘The play howse’, which is the Rose. This evidence is consistent
with what little is upon written record about the locality of the Bear
Gardens. The most important document is a deposition of John
Taylor, not the water-poet, in a suit of 1620:[1414]
 ‘He saith that he remembreth that the game of bear-bayting hath
been kept in fower severall places (vizt.) at Mason Steares on the
bankside; neere Maid-lane by the corner of the Pyke Garden; at the
beare garden which was parcell of the possession of William Payne;
and the place where they are now kept.’

Taylor was then an old man of seventy-seven and his memory would
easily go back to the time of the early maps. To his testimony may
be added that of Stowe, who says in his Survey of London (1598):
[1415]

‘Now to returne to the West banke, there be two Beare gardens,

the olde and new places, wherein be kept Beares, Buls and other
beastes to be bayted. As also Mastiues in severall kenels, nourished to
baite them. These Beares and other Beasts are there bayted in plottes
of ground, scaffolded about for the Beholders to stand safe. Next on
this banke was sometime the Bordello or stewes.’
In his Annales Stowe records the fall of ‘the old and under
propped scaffolds round about the Beare-garden, commonly called
Paris garden’, and the consequent death of eight persons, at 4 p.m.
on Sunday, 13 January 1583. It was, he says, ‘a friendly warning to
such as more delight themselves in the cruelty of beasts, than in the
works of mercy, the fruits of a true professed faith, which ought to
be the Sabbath day’s exercise’.[1416] Dr. Dee also noted the accident
in his diary, and it was reported to Burghley on the next day by the
Lord Mayor and on 19 January by Recorder Fleetwood.[1417] Both of
these adopt the view expressed by Stowe that it must be regarded
as divine punishment for the violation of the Sabbath, and Fleetwood
refers to ‘a booke sett downe vpon the same matter’, which may be
John Field’s Godly Exhortation by Occasion of the late Judgment of
God showed at Paris Garden. The shrewd irony of Sir Thomas More,
upon a similar event, when it was the church that fell, many years
before at Beverley, found little echo in the mind of the Elizabethan
Puritan.[1418] A further letter from the Lord Mayor to the Privy
Council on 3 July 1583 states that by then the Paris Garden scaffolds
were ‘new builded’.[1419]
 I find it very difficult to say which of the numerous bear gardens
mentioned by Taylor and Stowe was in use at any given time. Mr.
Rendle thought that Taylor’s first two, that at Mason Stairs and that
at the corner of the Pike Garden, were the two shown as ‘The bolle
bayting’ and ‘The Bearebayting’ by Agas.[1420] If so, they are quite
out of scale. This is likely, since they are drawn large enough to
show the animals. They are shown east and west of each other.
Rendle puts the Pike Garden due south of Mason Stairs, but it clearly
extended more to the east in 1587. In any case both these earlier
sites were farther to the west of the Clink than the Hope. Where
then was the place on William Payne’s ground? Mr. Rendle, after a
careful comparison of Rocque’s map of 1746 and other later maps,
puts it at ‘the north courtelage in the lane known as the Bear
Garden’ and the Hope at the south courtelage in the same lane.
[1421] I take him to mean that the Bear Garden on Payne’s ground
was that in use until 1613, and that the Hope was built a little to the
south of it. The terms of the contract with Katherens, however,
suggest that the same or practically the same site was used. Mr.
Rendle adds that ‘William Payne’s place next the Thames can be
traced back into the possession of John Allen, until it came down to
Edward Alleyn, and was sold by him at a large profit to Henslowe;
the same for which Morgan Pope in 1586 paid to the Vestry of St.
Saviour’s “6s. 8d. by the year for tithes”.’[1422] This I cannot quite
follow. There seem to have been two properties standing
respectively next and next but one on the west to the ‘little Rose’.
Next the Rose stood messuages called The Barge, Bell and Cock.
They were leased by the Bishop of Winchester to William Payne in
1540. His widow Joan Payne assigned them to John White and John
Malthouse on 1 August 1582, and White’s moiety was assigned to
Malthouse on 5 February 1589.[1423] From him Henslowe bought the
lease in 1593–4.[1424] The tenements upon it were in his hands as
‘Mr. Malthowes rentes’ in 1603 and Alleyn was living in one of them.
[1425] And the lease of the Barge, Bell and Cock passed to Alleyn
and was assigned by his will towards the settlement of his second or
third wife, Constance, daughter of Dean Donne.’[1426] To the west of
this property in 1540 was a tenement once held by the prioress of
Stratford. This passed to the Crown, and then to Thomas and
Isabella Keyes under a Crown lease which was in Henslowe’s hands
by 1597. Some notes of deeds—leases, deputations, bonds—
concerning the Bear Garden were left by Alleyn. Four of the deeds
have since been found by Mr. Kingsford in the Record Office. It
appears that, before Henslowe, both Pope and Burnaby had some of
the Keyes land on a sub-lease, and that Burnaby probably had the
Keyes lease itself. Payne carried on baiting in a ring just south of the
Barge. The site was called Orchard Court in 1620, and stood north of
the Hope. This agrees with the relation suggested by Mr. Rendle
between the two courtelages’. The object of the suit of 1620 was to
determine whether the Hope also stood upon episcopal, or upon
Crown land. Taylor’s testimony was ambiguous. But it follows that
the transfer southwards must have been due to a tenant who held
under both leases. It was suggested in 1620 that Pope rebuilt the
scaffold standings round the ring as galleries with a larger circuit.
This was doubtless after the ruin of 1583. Nothing is said of a
change of site at this time. Moreover, both Pope and Burnaby seem
to have used the site of the Hope and its bull-house as a dog-yard.
Probably, therefore, the change was made by Henslowe and Alleyn.
Alleyn left a record of ‘what the Bear garden cost me for my owne
part in December 1594’. He paid £200 to Burnaby, perhaps only for a
joint interest with Henslowe or Jacob Meade, and £250 for the
‘patten’, that is, I suppose, the Mastership bought from Sir William
Stuart in 1604. He held his interest for sixteen years and received
£60 a year, and then sold it to ‘my father Hinchloe’ for £580 in
February 1611.[1427] There must have been considerable outgoings
on the structure during this period. Another memorandum in Alleyn’s
hand shows an expenditure of £486 4s. 10d. during 1602–5, and a
further expenditure during 1606–8 of £360 ‘pd. for ye building of the
howses’.[1428] This last doubtless refers in part, not to the baiting
ring itself, but to a tavern and office built on ‘the foreside of the
messuage or tenemente called the Beare garden, next the river of
Thames in the parish of St. Saviors’, for which there exists a contract
of 2 June 1606 between Henslowe and Alleyn and Peter Street the
carpenter.[1429] But this only cost £65, and it seems to me most
likely that the Bear Garden was rebuilt on the southern site at the
same time. Further light is thrown on the profits of the Bear Garden
by a note in Henslowe’s diary that the receipts at it for the three
days next after Christmas 1608 were £4, £6, and £3 14s., which may
be compared with the average of £1 18s. 3d. received from the
Fortune during the same three days.[1430] It may be added that
Crowley notes the ‘bearwardes vaile’ somewhat ambiguously as ½d.,
1d., or 2d.,[1431] and that Lambarde in 1596 includes Paris Garden
with the Theatre and Bel Savage as a place where you must pay
‘one pennie at the gate, another at the entrie of the scaffolde, and
the thirde for a quiet standinge’.[1432]
Yet another building enterprise was undertaken in 1613, by which
time an interest in the property had certainly been leased to Jacob
Meade. On 29 August a contract was entered into between
Henslowe and Meade and Gilbert Katherens, carpenter, for the
pulling down of the Bear Garden and the erection before the
following 30 November on or near the same site of a play-house on
the model of the Swan, but with a movable stage, so as to enable
the building to be used also for baitings. I reproduce the document
here from Dr. Greg’s text:[1433]
Articles, Covenauntes, grauntes, and agreementes, Concluded and
agreed vppon this Nyne and Twenteithe daie of Auguste, Anno Domini
1613, Betwene Phillipe Henslowe of the parishe of St Saviour in
Sowthworke within the countye of Surrey, Esquire, and Jacobe Maide
of the parishe of St Olaves in Sowthworke aforesaide, waterman, of
thone partie, And Gilbert Katherens of the saide parishe of St Saviour
in Sowthworke, Carpenter, on thother partie, As followeth, That is to
saie—
Inprimis the saide Gilbert Katherens for him, his executours,
administratours, and assignes, dothe convenaunt, promise, and
graunt to and with the saide Phillipe Henslowe and Jacobe Maide and
either of them, thexecutors, administratours, & assigns of them and