Batch XXXVI

Jakarta, Saturday 18 January 2025

WORKSHOP

TRADING AS A BUSINESS

Part 1 : INTRODUCTION

Facilitator : Roy Baroes

 Our Agenda
Introduction of Trading As A Business

Technical Tools / Bot Chart

Money Management
ASY TO CHANGE COLORS, PHOTOS.
Introduction of
Trading as a business
Part : 1

Batch XXXVI
Jakarta, Saturday 18 January 2025
 HELLO!
I am Roy Baroes
I am a trader in IDX since 2005
Reservoir Geophysicist,Explorationist,
Data Scientist & Machine Learning Enthusiast
You can find me at @ReinDeepLearning in telegram apps
4
 INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
TRADERS JOURNEY ( Including me!!)

5
 INTRODUCTION
Trade Iran -
Ukraine- Israel War
War
Rusia War

Greek Gov
Debt crisis

EuroZone
Debt Crisis

Hammas
Israel War

Tapering Covid 19
Tantrum Pandemic

Subprime
mortgage
 INTRODUCTION

▰ 85% trader failed in 1st year

▰ 15% traders passed into 2nd year
▻ 7.5 % failed in 2nd year
▻ 7.5 % Passed into 3rd year
▰ From 7.5%, only 2.5% passed their 3rd years
▰ only 1% survive and profit consistently in their
10th years

Source : Dr Gary Dayton , Trade mindfully

7
 Introduction
▰ Trading as a business Workshop: ▰ Volume Price Analysis & Wyckoff Methods :
Level : Beginner & Intermediate Level : Advance

8
Workshop Trading As A business
until Batch 32
 WORKSHOP : “TRADING AS A BUSINESS”

INTRODUCTION

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 Introduction

▰ Stock Market (IDX/ IHSG) is one of investment

alternative with the high growth return (also high
risk)
▰ Generalization :
▻ Stock market is Dangerous
▻ Stock Market is Gambling
▰ Stock Trading is not a short cut to be rich
▰ Stock Trading is a business

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 Introduction : Trading as a business

▰ Trading as a business
▻ Need some knowledge, experiences and Skills
▻ Need Tools and equipment (Software, realtime data, robot, Bloomberg
terminal, etc)
▻ Need Capital and operational cost
▻ Need time to manage, study and do some researches
▻ It always has a risk to manage
▰ Advantages of stock trading compared with others.
▻ Flexible, Anywhere as long with internet connection
▻ No Ages or gender restriction
▻ No need to pay employee
▰ Disadvantages of stock trading compared with others.
▻ If you are not ready, you will loss much in this battle

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 Introduction : Trading as a business

Money
Effetively using Management
Trading Technology
Anticipate
Worst Mistakes
How to Create & Gain to Recover loss
Trading Plan
Risk and Reward
In Trading Style

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Introduction : Business Cycle – Market Cycle

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 Introduction : Business Cycle – Market Cycle

Business Cycle (USA)

and Relative Sector Performance (S&P Index) 15
Introduction : Business Cycle – Market Cycle

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Introduction : World’s Stock Market Capitalization

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 Introduction : Traditional Market & Stock Market

Fundamentally
Similar

• PD Pasar / Pemda (Regulator) • BEI/ OJK (Regulator)

• Seller (Supply) • Seller/ Offer (Supply)
• Buyer (Demand) • Buyer / Bid (Demand)
• Pedagang Grossir • Fund Manager / Big boys / Financial Inst.
• Items to sell (fruits,Cons Good etc) • Items to sell / Stock
• Bandars / Speculator • Bandars / Speculator
• FreeMan/ Copet /PickPocket • FreeMan/ Copet /Tic Toc Trader

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 Introduction : Stock Market Players
▰ Big Boys – Whale (Fund Managers, Pension Fund, Institutions, Foreign Investors)
▻ Advance Information
▻ Huge Capital
▻ Market Driver
▻ Blue chip holder
▻ Fundamental Analyst / Investment
▻ Need more time to buy or sell
 Introduction : Stock Market Players
▰ Bandar –Shark (Groups of retailer , Hedge Fund )
▻ Advance Information
▻ Big Capital
▻ Market Driver
▻ 2nd – 3nd Liner Stocks
▻ Stock Cornering (Goreng saham)
 Introduction : Stock Market Players
▰ Retailer – Piranha (Experienced & tactical trader, Copet-ers)
▻ Less Information
▻ Small Capital
▻ Market Follower
▻ Agile
▻ Mostly Technical Analysis / Trading
 Introduction : Stock Market Players
▰ Retailer – Goldfish (Beginner investors/unskilled traders, the chunk of “Yuk
Nabung Saham”)
▻ Less – No Information
▻ Small Capital
▻ News Follower
▻ Always late / yangkuters
▻ Suddenly investor (don’t know what to do)
Introduction : How Big is the big boys

UBS Worldwide Trading Floor : 1400 seat / Trading terminal

 Introduction : How Big is the big boys

Daftar 20 Manajer Investasi Dana Kelolaan Reksadana Terbesar Mei 2023

Source : Bareksa
Introduction : How Big is the big boys

Citigroup Trading Room, london

Citigroup Trading Room, New York

 WORKSHOP : “TRADING AS A BUSINESS”

Determining Your
Entry and Exit Points
Part 1 : Technical Analysis

Batch XXXVI
Jakarta, Saturday 18 January 2025
Facilitator : Roy Baroes
 Introduction

▰ Technical analysis is the attempt to forecast stock

prices Move on the basis of market-derived data.
▰ Technicians (also known as quantitative analysts
or chartists) usually look at price, volume and
psychological indicators over time.
▰ They are looking for trends and patterns in the
data that indicate future price movements.

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 Introduction

▰ Technical analysis is the attempt to forecast stock

prices Move on the basis of market-derived data.
▰ Technicians (also known as quantitative analysts
or chartists) usually look at price, volume and
psychological indicators over time.
▰ They are looking for trends and patterns in the
data that indicate future price movements.

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 CHARTING THE MARKET
▰ The Roles of Price and Volume in Charting
▻ A price rise on light volume may signal an absence
of sellers, not the presence of big buyers (vice
versa).
▻ Heavy volume, on the other hand, signals that bulls
or bears are committed to the calling.
▻ In other word, Price Discount Everything, Volume
Validated

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 CHARTING THE MARKET

Action

PRICE
UP
+ VOLUME
DOWN
- +X- -
PRICE
- VOLUME
+ -X+
-
DOWN UP

PRICE + VOLUME + +X+ +

UP UP

PRICE
DOWN
- VOLUME
DOWN - -X- +

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 CHARTING THE MARKET
▰ Chartists use bar charts, candlestick, or point and
figure charts to look for patterns which may
indicate future price movements.
▰ They also analyze volume and other psychological
indicators (Bandar Detector, Buying volume /Selling
volume, Foreign Flow, Buying Pressure / Selling
Pressure).
▰ Price tell us What is Happening,
▰ Volume tells us How it is Happening
▰ Strict chartists don’t care about fundamentals at
all. 31
Lesson Learned from Market Cycle :
❑ Market Cycle is always repeated it self
❑ No market always Up and no market
always down
❑ There is always a second change
❑ Market will always be there and ready for
you, Will you be ready for the market ?

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Psychology of Market Cycle

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Psychology of Market Cycle

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Psychology of Market Cycle

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A PICTORIAL VIEW OF THE STOCK CYCLE OF LIFE

LPCK 2009 - 2019

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 A PICTORIAL VIEW OF THE STOCK CYCLE OF LIFE

▰ Waiting a Game : Accumulation

▰ Big bang : Expansion
▰ AfterMath : Distribution
▰ Downfall : Contraction

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A PICTORIAL VIEW OF THE STOCK CYCLE OF LIFE

Uptrust

The Best Time

For Buying

The Second
Chance To Buy
 SMBR 2015 -2022 (April)

Distribution

Accumulation
 UNILEVER 2004 -2024

Distribution

Accumulation

S
 ARTO (Bank JAGO) April 2020 – April 2023

Distribution

Accumulation/ Redistribution ?

Accumulation
S
 CHARTING THE MARKET

❑ Line Chart ❑ Candlestick Chart

❑ Bar Chart ❑ Point & Figure hart

https://www.investing.com/charts/live-charts or http://45.77.246.239/ 42
 DRAWING BAR (OHLC) CHARTS

▰ Each bar is composed of 4 Elements

▻ Open
▻ High
▻ Low
▻ Close

It is capturing the story of buyer vs seller during a period

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 Basic Technical Tools

▰ Trendline
▰ Support / Resistance
▰ Moving Averages
▰ Candlestick Price Pattern
▰ Indicators

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Up TrendLine : “Trend is Your Friend”

UPTREND :
• LL (Lower Low)
• LH (Lower High)
• HL (Higher Low)
• HH (Higher High)

Up Trendline
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 Up TrendLine : “Trend is Your Friend”
HH
HH

HH
HH
HL
HL

HH HL

HL
HH UPTREND :
H • L (LOW)
• H (HIGH)
HL • HL (HIGHER LOW)
HL
Up Trendline • HH (HIGHER HIG)
L 46
 Down TrendLine : “Trend is Your Friend”
H
DownTrend :
LH
• H ( High)
• L ( Low)
• LH (Lower High)
LH Down Trendline • LL (Lower Low)

LH

LL
LH

LL
LL

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LL
 SideWay: “Trend is Your Friend”

SIDE WAY

SIDEWAY : No Direction “The beginning and the end of the Journey ” 48

Support and Resistant

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Support and Resistant
Support & Resistant
Using Trend chart @DLQuant_Bot On GIAA

Resistant

Resistant
Trend line

Resistant
Become
Support

Support

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Support Trenline
 Moving Averages
• Most popular are 20-day, 50-day,100-day and 200-day
• Shows the average price of the last # days and plots it on a line
• Often acts as areas of support and/or resistance

Blue Line = MA 20 Day

Red Line = MA 50 Day

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Moving Averages GoldenCross & DeathCross

Death Cross :
MA20 Crossing Down MA50
Signal : Sell

Golden Cross :
MA20 Crossing Up MA50
Signal : Buy 52
Section Break
End Of Part One

Any Questions?