Environmental Science and Policy 139 (2023) 228–239

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Environmental Science and Policy

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci

Combining biophysical modeling and Polanyian theory pleads for a

re-embedding of the agricultural system in 2050 in Austria
J. Le Noë a, b, *, S. Gingrich a, M. Pichler a, N. Roux a, L. Kaufmann a, A. Mayer a, C. Lauk a
a
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute of Social Ecology, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna,
Austria
b
Geology Laboratory, École Normale Supérieur, PSL University, Paris, France

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Land use faces a double challenge: to provide biomass to a growing population while contributing to climate-
Agricultural system change mitigation. We here scrutinize this challenge by exploring the domestic option space for meeting the
Greenhouse gas budget food demand of Austria in 2050 under the condition of no deforestation. To that end, we bring together a
Modelling
quantitative assessment based on biogeochemical models with a socio-political analysis based on the conceptual
Scenarios
(Dis) embeddedness
framework of (dis-) embeddedness derived from Polanyian thinking. We consider viable options by modifying
four levers: (i) human diet and food waste; (ii) trade patterns; (iii) agricultural practices; (iv) technical climate
change mitigation. Past and present policies in Austria have fostered an agricultural system rich in animal
products, land-use specialization and the integration of biomass products within international markets, ulti­
mately resulting in a loss of embeddedness in the sense of Polanyi. The biophysical analysis, however, highlights
that a shift towards diets with less animal products would allow increasing self-sufficiency or a generalization of
organic farming while turning the agricultural and forestry sector into a net GHG sink. Following a Polanyian
perspective, we show that feasible scenarios require different types of re-embedding of the agricultural system:
ecological, spatial and social, implying that land products should rather be common goods than mere
commodities.

1. Introduction food system, 40% were due to agricultural production and 32% to land
use and land use change (Crippa et al., 2021). Meanwhile, between 2010
The provision of food and other biomass such as fodder, fiber and and 2019, global land surfaces provided a carbon sink of 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC
wood is a central ecosystem service of the world agriculture and forestry yr-1 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). In that context, the agriculture and
sectors, accounting for 51% and 38% of global habitable land in 2018, forestry sectors face a double challenge in climate-change mitigation: by
respectively (Ritchie and Roser, 2021). Over the course of the 20th and (1) reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural activ­
early 21st centuries, expansion, intensification and specialization in the ities and (2) sustaining carbon sinks in agricultural and forest ecosys­
agricultural sector induced a tremendous increase in food production tems to counteract emissions from other activities that are hard to
(Krausmann et al., 2009; Ramankutty et al., 2002) and facilitated decarbonize (Roe et al., 2019). Despite a controversial debate about the
reforestation in many industrialized countries (Mather, 1992; Meyfroidt extent contributed by each, both processes are essential parts of National
and Lambin, 2011). However, these changes in the agricultural sector Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve the Paris Agreement
were enabled by an ever-growing dependence on fossil energy for ma­ (Walsh et al., 2017). Accordingly, the European Commission’s goal is
chinery, fertilizer production and long-distance feed transportation that agriculture and forestry in Europe should reach a budget of − 240 to
enabling a surge in livestock production globally, and making the − 475 Mt CO2-eq./yr to meet respectively the < 2 ◦ C and < 1.5 ◦ C targets
agricultural sector responsible for one-fourth of the global GHG emis­ (Anon, 2018), while still providing food in quantity and quality. Un­
sions (Crippa et al., 2021; Gingrich et al., 2019; Tubiello et al., 2013). In derstanding how this double challenge can be met requires exploring a
2015, out of the 18 Gt CO2-eq. of GHG emissions linked to the global large number of biophysical scenarios, their GHG budgets and

* Corresponding author at: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute of Social Ecology,
Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria.
E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Le Noë).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.006
Received 31 March 2022; Received in revised form 27 September 2022; Accepted 11 November 2022
Available online 19 November 2022
1462-9011/© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
J. Le Noë et al. Environmental Science and Policy 139 (2023) 228–239

socio-ecological contexts, i.e. their ecological implications on land sys­ zone, with a population of 8.9 million in 2019 and a total area of 83.9
tems, and the societal conditions accompanying them. thousand km2. As alpine mountains cover a large share of its territory,
Since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in the 2000s (Alcamo only 31% is used for agriculture, of which 52% are covered by arable
et al., 2006), the literature on land ecosystem scenarios has been land, 46% by grassland with mainly cattle, and 2% by perennial crops
flourishing (Wiebe et al., 2018). In the 6th IPCC report, the combination (vineyards and fruit orchards) (FAOstat). While most arable land can be
of the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) with the Representative found in the northern and eastern lowlands and plains, most grassland is
Concentrations Pathway (RCP) scenarios in the Integrated Assessment situated in mountainous areas towards the West and South. As extensive
Models (IAMs) reflected possible futures for the socio-economic, land-­ pastures in high alpine areas exhibit a low profitability and depend
use, and climatic systems (Popp et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017; van strongly on state subsidies, there exists a trend towards an expansion of
Vuuren et al., 2017). These have, however, been vividly criticized forest cover, especially in higher altitudes (Gingrich et al., 2016).
(Anderson and Jewell, 2019; Kalt et al., 2021; Keyßer and Lenzen, In the lowlands and plains, agricultural productivity as well as inputs
2021), mostly because of their unquestioned reliance upon economic of synthetic N fertilizers and pesticides are in the range of other indus­
profitability, growth, and self-regulative market-mechanisms, supposed trialized countries, with average cereal yields of 6.2 t/ha, average
to generate speculative technological break-throughs to solve environ­ mineral N fertilizer input of 89 kgN/ha of arable land and average
mental problems (Warszawski et al., 2021; Hickel et al., 2021). The pesticide use of 2.8 kg/ha of arable land in 2015. In 2015, 20% of all
predominance of the growth and free-market paradigms in IPCC sce­ agricultural areas were cultivated with organic methods, a large part
narios may be encouraged by the dominance of conventional economic being extensive grassland due to pedoclimatic and relief constraints
models, especially when these do not explicitly consider biophysical (Stolze et al., 2019). While average cattle density on grassland is com­
limits to economic growth. This omission indeed allows for unlimited parable to other European countries of similar income, there is an
growth and specialization for the sake of socio-economic benefits, but above-average pig population in relation to total arable land (Billen
underestimates the non-linear environmental consequences of persistent et al., 2021). According to FAO data, the total calorific household food
unsustainable use of resources (Raworth 2017, Hickel 2020), a short­ supply per person is, with 3768 kcal/pers/day in 2015, one of the
coming with direct effects on the analysis of sustainable agri-food sys­ highest worldwide, and 12% higher than the average of all high-income
tems (McGreevy et al., 2022). Thus, recent research has brought forward countries. This difference to similar countries arises from the excep­
complementary biophysical models to investigate sustainable option tionally high per-capita supply of animal fats (such as butter and lard).
spaces, which are constrained by social thresholds on the one hand, that This current patterns in Austrian land-use and agricultural food
require meeting the livelihoods of people (e.g. food supply), and by the systems are a consequence of the ‘modernization’ of agriculture. Started
limits imposed by biophysical processes on the other (e.g. primary with the aid of the Marshall plan in 1947 and in an era of economic
productivity of vegetation, agricultural yields) (Billen et al., 2021; Erb protectionism, national modernization policies sought to increase agri­
et al., 2016; Kalt et al., 2021; Le Noë et al., 2019; Muller et al., 2017; cultural production, following the so-called “Grüne Plan” (Stolze et al.,
Theurl et al., 2020). So far however, these models have mostly focused 2019). In the 1960 s and 1970 s, these policies aimed at reorganizing
on the biophysical dimensions of agriculture and forestry, falling short farming structure from integrated subsistence farming to specialized
of integrating their results into broader social and economic contexts. crop or livestock production, inserted in international markets and
Integrating biophysical models and socio-ecological theory is hence an increasingly dependent on mineral fertilizers, animal feed, fuel, pesti­
urgent and promising step, needed to understand the social dimensions cides and antibiotics inputs (Fig. 1c) (Gingrich and Krausmann, 2018;
of sustainability transformations without systematically resorting to Krausmann et al., 2008, 2003). The increased specialization of agricul­
conventional market economic models (Brand et al., 2021; Meyfroidt tural (and forestry) production was also accompanied with the expan­
et al., 2018; Otto et al., 2020; Pichler et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2020). sion of international biomass trade (Krausmann et al., 2008, 2003),
In the present study, we aim at leading off this research step, by contributing to the disruptions of global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles
answering two fundamental and interlinked research questions: (i) What (Lassaletta et al., 2014; Nesme et al., 2018) and to an outsourcing of the
are the future sustainable agricultural systems that contribute to both environmental burden toward exporting countries (Kalt et al., 2021;
achieving a GHG neutral budget and providing healthy food for all? (ii) Kastner et al., 2011a, 2011b; Roux et al., 2021). Nevertheless, in Austria,
How can social theory be applied to articulate the societal implications biomass trade remained at a low level compared to biomass production
of the different scenarios in terms of land-use management and food until the 1970 s (Fig. 1d) because of protectionist and interventionist
consumption? To answer these questions, we develop an interdisci­ agricultural policies (Krausmann et al., 2003).
plinary approach and apply it to Austria in the period up to 2050 to Since the 1990’s, Austrian agriculture has been subject to the Com­
explore the results of a biophysical model in terms of GHG emissions mon Agricultural Policy (CAP), which strengthened the environmental
from the agriculture and forestry sectors for a large number of agricul­ regulation while facilitating greater deregulation of agricultural com­
tural scenarios, identifying a biophysical option space of feasible futures, modities on international markets (Kroll and Pouch, 2012). Following
and interpret these results through the lens of social theories. By subsequent General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and World
focusing on an industrialized country, we explore the societal implica­ Trade organization (WTO) negotiations, Austrian farmers benefited less
tions of reducing emissions, while continuously sufficient food provision and less from government agricultural price supports, which were
allows a moderate reduction in agricultural production. We draw on the replaced by direct payments based on farm size. Food prices, however,
Polanyian concept of embeddedness, allowing for the economic system still fell by 20–50% as a result of the further opening of food markets to
to be seen alternatively either as an organizer of or as organized by land- international competition through lower customs protections (Sassatelli
use systems (Polanyi, 2001). We use this conceptual framework to and Scott, 2001). Although these changes contributed to reduce agri­
interpret path dependencies and political obstacles to be overcome cultural overproduction, especially of livestock products, and avoiding
when implementing various options of change in agricultural and environmental problems as overgrazing (e.g., Noll et al., 2020), they
forestry systems whose effect on the GHG balance is assessed by a bio­ encouraged farmers to specialize their production in order to remain
physical modelling approach. competitive (Krausmann et al., 2003). This paradox has materialized
through the further integration of food commodities (Fig. 1d) into in­
2. Concepts and methods ternational markets while the Austrian government and the EU
increased environmental regulation (e.g., through stopping the growth
2.1. The Austrian case of livestock numbers and fertilizer use) (Fig. 1a & b).

Austria is a European, landlocked country in the temperate climate

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Fig. 1. Trajectories of agri-food systems in Austria through 4 main indicators: (a) population and food consumption, (b) livestock size, (c) inputs of synthetic nitrogen
fertilizers and (d) Physical trade balance of agricultural products, with positive values referring to net import and negative values to net export. Data were extracted
from the SI of Billen et al. (2021) after the FAOstat.

2.2. Conceptual framework ties, social relationships in biomass production, producer-consumer re­
lationships, and land ownership. The second form of embeddedness is
In order to account for the societal implications of the biophysical the spatial scale of biomass production, which is best reflected in the
option space assessment, we employ the Polanyian concept of (dis-) intensity of biomass trade compared to local production. The third form
embeddedness originally developed by Polanyi (2001) in his book “The of embeddedness is that of nature, including issues of nutrient cycling,
Great Transformation”. Dis-embeddedness, according to Polanyi, de­ greenhouse gas emission, water pollution, human and animal health. In
scribes the expansion of a market economy into all spheres of society, the present study, we build on this distinction to interpret how recent
including production factors such as labor, land, and money which shall trends and possible scenarios of agricultural systems are or could be tied
be mere commodities if they are to meet the market requirement of to social, spatial and ecological embeddedness of Austrian agriculture
self-regulation (Fig. 1). However, according to Polanyi, production and forestry. Applying these three dimensions of embeddedness allows
factors are fictitious commodities because none of them are actually us to articulate the Polanyian framework to different indicators driving
produced in view of being sold. Dis-embeddedness of the economy thus or estimated by our modeling of the biophysical option space in Austrian
refers to the movement of subordinating land, labor and money to the agricultural and forestry systems (Fig. 2).
self-regulative economy. This marks an exceptional situation in the We considered that GHG budgets of agricultural systems, which is
long-history of humanity which, according to Polanyi, has historically the main output of the modelling approach developed here (see Section
resulted in the destruction of land (soil fertility depletion caused by 2.3) could be considered as an indicator of ecological embeddedness
agricultural intensification and rural exodus) and the destruction of (Fig. 2&3). Trade pattern, which is a lever in the biophysical option
human livelihood conditions by exhausting and alienating the labor space, reflecting the importance of food and feed net import for domestic
force treating labor as a commodity. Embeddedness, by contrast, de­ consumption, is taken as an indicator of spatial embeddedness but can as
scribes a situation in which land, labor and money are not subject to well indicate social and ecological embeddedness as the integration of
market exchange, but are organized, used and regulated by political food within international market reveals its degree of commodification
institutions, either at the level of state policy (e.g., public utilities) or at while trade also have environmental impact (Fig. 2&3). Last, as social
the local level by the rules of the local community (e.g., commons). practices, human diet and agricultural practices, which are also levers of
Those concepts of embeddedness and fictitious commodity being the biophysical option space, can be considered as indicators of social
defined, we argue that developing future scenarios by first considering embeddedness (Fig. 2&3). Although human diet and agricultural prac­
the constraints set by a market economy implicitly accept the fictitious tices are mediated by many other social relationships and practices,
commodity of land and labor and the dis- embeddedness of the econ­ including public policy, the processing, packaging, wholesale and retail
omy. By contrast, developing future scenarios by first exploring a bio­ industries, which make up the bulk of the economic profit of the agri-
physical option space implicitly adopts a Polanyian perspective by first food industry sector in Austria (Anon, 2020), we could hardly include
considering environmental targets and social goals, thus tending to, at these social relationship in a biophysical modelling approach. This
least epistemologically, re- embedding the economy in the environment would indeed involve making hypotheses about the way society works
and the society. being eventually at odds with the social embeddedness concept used to
In land-use and agro-food studies, the concepts of embeddedness and interpret the results and constrain these interpretations. However, we
dis-embeddedness have been widely applied, making these concepts still discuss their historical and potential future roles qualitatively in
more operational for analyzing contemporary land use changes and Section 3.2.
practices than Polanyi’s original work on the emergence of the market Our interdisciplinary approach can be summarized as follows:
economy in late eighteenth century Britain. Penker (2006) identifies Referring to (dis-) embeddedness enables us to qualitatively interpret
three types of embeddedness concepts in agricultural systems. The first the results of a biophysical modeling of option space in terms of their
form of embeddedness is that within the social context, including social socio-political implications while considering the historical, political

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Fig. 2. Representation of the different conceptual fields used and their articulation for the present study.

and socioeconomic context of the Austrian agricultural and forestry 2020) (Fig. 3), representing quantitative operationalizations of the three
systems. This allowed us to produce scientific knowledge with direct dimensions of embeddedness outlined above. Model performance and
implications for ongoing debates and negotiations on how to use land, robustness were evaluated against independent data, showing the reli­
produce food and change eating habits. ability of our modelling approach (see Supplementary Information 1 and
2). This approach allowed us to: (i) characterize the functioning of the
2.3. Modeling approach and database Austrian agricultural system in terms of land use, agricultural practices,
human diet, dependence on foreign trade and implementation of
To evaluate the potential of climate change mitigation by the agri­ climate-change mitigation techniques and, (ii) to calculate the GHG
culture and forestry sectors while providing sufficient biomass resources budgets of the domestic agriculture and forestry sectors for the current
for food, we developed a biophysical modelling approach relying on the situation and for prospective scenario of the agricultural system, and
coupling of the BioClim.at model and the CRAFT model (Le Noë et al., (iii) establish qualitative links to three dimensions of (dis-)

Fig. 3. Schematic representation of the accounting model BioClim.at coupled to the CRAFT model. Rectangles stand for processes governing carbon and other GHG
fluxes, rhombuses stand both for forcing data used to represent the current situation and for the levers activated in the prospective scenarios, circles stand for carbon
pools, ovals stand for GHG and carbon budgets, stars for embeddedness indicators. A more detailed description and representation of the BioClim.at model is
provided in SI1.

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embeddedness. calculated by multiplication with emission factors taken from Austrian

inventory reports (Anon, 2021, 2014), the 2006 IPCC guidelines for
2.3.1. BioClim.at national greenhouse gas inventories (Eggleston et al., 2006) and the
For the calculations of agricultural biomass flows, land budgets and EMEP-EEA emission inventory guidebook (Hutchings et al., 2013). For
GHG emissions, we developed BioClim.at, a spreadsheet-based bio­ the conversion of N2O and CH4 emissions into CO2-eq. we used global
physical accounting model comprised of three modules (Fig. 3, see also warming potential metrics for a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100)
the detailed model description in SI 1). The model was applied to the without inclusion of climate-carbon feedbacks according to the IPCC
Austrian land-use sector, with 2010 (average 2009–11 to reduce yearly AR5 (IPCC, 2013) (GWP-CO2 =1, GWP-CH4 =34, GWP-N2O=298).
fluctuations) as base year. Following a territorial accounting approach, Module three accounts for land cover changes, including conversion
the model quantifies GHG emissions of domestic biomass production of grassland into cropland and increases in forest areas from abandoned
(including e.g. the emissions from livestock converting imported feed, or agricultural land (deforestation, which is rather irrelevant in Austria, is
the emissions from products for exports), while upstream emissions from not allowed by the model). Land use changes are particularly important
outside of Austria (e.g. from the production of feed imported to Austria) for the assessment of the GHG budget in the biophysical option space,
are outside the model’s system boundary. Key drivers of the agricultural because when the agricultural production target set by a given scenario
system that are expected to change in the future (Table 1) are inputs to is lower than what is produced on the available agricultural area, freed
the model (see module 1 in Fig. 3): (i) diet and food waste, (ii) physical up land is systematically reallocated to re-forestation, which generates a
trade balnce (iii) agricultural system, and (iv) implementation of tech­ carbon sink quantified here by the CRAFT model (Section 2.3.2). For this
nical mitigation measures. By varying these input parameters, the model calculation, primary biomass demand (crops and roughage) from mod­
calculates the impact of each scenario assumption on biomass flows, ule one was converted into cropland and grassland areas on the basis of
land demand and GHG emissions within Austria (see section scenario crop specific yields and grassland productivities. All food and fodder
assumptions). crops were further differentiated between conventional and organic
Module one depicts the structure and practices of agri-food systems agriculture in terms of average crop yield and demand for additional
and calculates the quantity of primary biomass required to produce a legumes for maintaining soil fertility in the case of organic agriculture.
particular quantity of final products, including food products and Potential demand for cropland and grassland was compared against a
products used by industries (bio-based energy and materials), based on predefined area supply, assuming that total agricultural area cannot
conversion ratios and loss factors along the food supply chain. The increase compared to the base year 2010 and that a maximum grassland
baseline for 2010 was derived from national census data (BMLFUW, area (set at 400’000 ha) can be converted into cropland. For the 2010
2014; Statistik Austria, various years) and additional literature was used baseline, average crop yields, grassland productivities, shares of con­
to account for all food losses and wastes in processing, retail and ventional vs. organic agriculture and agricultural areas were derived
households (for references see Table 1). Within this module, per-capita from national census data (BMLFUW, 2014). Areas not needed for
diets and the relative amount of food waste were varied according to agriculture in a given scenario were handed over to the CRAFT model
different scenarios (see Section 3.3). (below) and allowed to regrow into production forests, sequestering
Module two accounts for all GHG emissions from domestic agricul­ carbon, thus offsetting emissions of the agricultural sector. Module 3,
tural activities. Activity data related to the production of biomass are however, excluded changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks associ­
provided by module one. GHG emissions caused by these activities are ated to land-cover change because temporal changes in forest SOC stocks

Table 1
Variants of main food system parameters considered for this study and how they are derived. Each scenario shown in the option space is a unique combination of
variants. A more detailed description of the variants and how they are derived is provided in SI1.
Variant Rationale/Characterization Main Sources

Human diets and HighMeat Continuation of past trends: Only slight changes in diets. Food wastes remaining Historical data on food supply (Mao 2015)
food waste constant on the level of 2010. Food wastes according to (Beretta et al., 2013)
EAT-Lancet Transition to a healthy sustainable diet according to the planetary health diet of Diets: Planetary health diet of the EAT-Lancet commission
the EAT-Lancet commission and reduction of avoidable food wastes by 50%. (Willett et al., 2019)
Food waste: Generic
Vegan Transition to a vegan diet (without animal products, including dairy) and Diets: US dietary guidelines (US Department of
reduction of avoidable food wastes by 50%. Agriculture 2010 and US Department of Health and
Human Services, 2010)
Food waste: Generic
Trade pattern Constant Import and export remain constant on the level of 2010 for all crops and livestock National census data
products.
Zero Import and export are set to zero in 2050 for all crops and livestock products. Generic
Cropping system Constant • Share of conventional and organic agriculture remaining at 2010 production
volumes (90% conventional, 10% organic).
• Crop yields remain constant at 2010 level
Organic • Full transition to organic agriculture until 2050. Meta-studies on organic crop yields:de Ponti et al. (2012);
• Crop yields in organic agriculture: Same growth rates as conventional crop Seufert et al. (2012); crop rotations in organic agriculture:
yields, cross-checked with literature meta-studies on organic crop yields. Freyer (2003).
Additional demand for legumes, based on crop rotations.
• Crop yields in conventional agriculture same as in the scenario “Conventional”.
Conventional • Share of conventional and organic agriculture remaining at 2010 production Linear continuation of past trend; Past and current crop
volumes (90% conventional, 10% organic). Crop yields in conventional yields: national census data
agriculture: Linear extrapolation of past crop yield trends.
• Crop yields in organic agriculture same as in the scenario “Organic”.
Technical GHG Constant Manure and pasture management shares remain constant. No implementation of (Anon, 2014)
mitigation technical GHG mitigation measures.
Potential Maximum implementation of technical mitigation measures targeting CH4 and (Bryngelsson et al., 2016; Winiwarter et al., 2018;
N2O emissions found in literature, with assumptions on dissemination (80–100%) Zethner, 2012)
and emission reduction rates in i.e., manure management, enteric fermentation,
soil emissions, and fertilizer application.

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are currently very poorly predicted by models (Mao et al., 2019; Zhang forestry sectors from a net GHG source of 1.64 Mt CO2-eq./yr in 2010 to
et al., 2020). We, therefore, considered that uncertainties would be too a net GHG sink of 10.6–15.8 Mt CO2-eq./yr in 2050 (Fig. 4). Neverthe­
high to establish significant differences between scenarios. less, 14 scenarios out of the 36 tested were not feasible as a result of land
constraints. Among the 14 unfeasible scenarios, 10 were associated with
2.3.2. CRAFT model a constant, meat- and dairy-rich diet, while the four others were found
The CRAFT model (Le Noë et al., 2020) simulates the C stocks and unfeasible when organic farming was combined with self-sufficiency
fluxes in forest ecosystems, distinguishing coniferous and deciduous (zero net trade). The finding that organic farming under the condition
forests, at a national resolution and with annual time steps, based on of self-sufficiency is not feasible is consistent with Billen et al. (2021),
inventory data and administrative statistics on forest management and who found that under a reduced animal products diet and following a
land use. As assumptions of the model have been extensively presented full transition towards organic farming, Austria has the potential to
and discussed previously (Gingrich et al., 2021; Le Noë et al., 2021, reach only 92% of self-sufficiency in terms of proteins. The only feasible
2020), hereafter we briefly present the main features of the model and scenarios resulting in a positive GHG balance were associated with the
how it is implemented for the case of Austria (1994–2017) and for the constant meat- and dairy-rich diet, while all others resulted in negative
scenario simulations while more details are provided in SI 1. GHG balances. This result highlights that diet is the key driver allowing
In the present study, harvested wood data were taken from FAOstat to reverse the agriculture and forestry sectors from a source to a sink of
and converted from m3 to tC by applying specific coefficients following GHG emissions in Austria. Shifts in diets also open up a range of possi­
(Haberl et al., 2007). Data on area and standing biomass for coniferous bilities for the agricultural sector, including the possibility to transition
and deciduous forests were provided by the national inventory report towards full organic farming or reaching self-sufficiency. This finding is
(http://bfw.ac.at/rz/wi.home). The estimation of the annual net pri­ in line with previous studies at the European and global levels (Billen
mary production (NPP, tC ha-1) is based on a parabolic relationship et al., 2021; Theurl et al., 2020). With the current meat- and dairy-rich
between NPP and standing biomass (B, including aboveground and diet, the only possibilities to feed Austria result in a net GHG source of
belowground biomass, tC ha-1), building on three parameters: r the 1.1–2.4 Mt CO2-eq. in 2050 and requires to pursue a conventional
annual growth rate (tC NPP tC-1 biomass), K the theoretical maximum agricultural system with further increased crop yields and the mainte­
carrying capacity in the absence of tree mortality (tC ha-1) and α the nance of food and feed imports as a result of increased population and
annual change of the r parameter value (%). The values of these three higher agricultural land demand compared to the other scenarios with a
parameters are calibrated with a routine using Macros in Microsoft Excel shift in diet. By contrast, the implementation of technical mitigation
so that the simulation best fits the available observed data of standing measures in agriculture had no impact on the feasibility of scenarios and
biomass and minimizes the root mean square error (RMSE). In the pre­ only a moderate impact on the net GHG budget. This suggests that the
sent study, the CRAFT model was used to simulate forest C stock dy­ technical solutions currently available are insufficient in the face of the
namics associated to different scenarios by applying the optimized value challenge of climate-change mitigation.
of r and K in 2017, thus considering that the relationship between NPP In all feasible scenarios with a shift in human diet, the positive GHG
and forest biomass will remain constant until 2050. emissions in agriculture were overcompensated thanks to the large
carbon sink generated by new forest areas and the thickening of existing
2.3.3. Scenario assumptions forest. Focusing on the agricultural sector (Fig. 5a), we found that the
The biophysical option space for the agriculture and forestry sectors lowest GHG emissions are associated with the implementation of
was explored by considering four main socio-ecological levers within the organic farming systems as well as the vegan diet due to reduced fer­
agri-food system: (i) diet and food waste, (ii) physical trade balance (iii) tilizer inputs, less agricultural land demand and animal products having
agricultural system, and (iv) implementation of technical mitigation impacts on enteric fermentation and manure management emissions. On
measures. Within these four socio-ecological levers, ten variants were the contrary, the conventional farming system and the current meat- and
considered in the present study resulting in the exploration of 36 sce­ dairy-rich diet variants were associated with the highest GHG emissions
narios defined by specific combinations of these variants (Table 1, see in agriculture. Self-sufficiency and the implementation of technical
also SI 1 for further details). The biophysical option space in this analysis mitigation variants were associated with slightly lower GHG budgets in
is constrained by explicitly ruling out deforestation and the social agriculture compared to their alternatives, i.e., constant trade and no
threshold to provide food for the expected Austrian population in 2050, technical mitigation (Fig. 5a). This difference can be explained by a
according to the forecast of the Austrian statistics agency (Statistik current net export of emissions embodied in agricultural products
Austria, 2016), under diverging diets and levels of trade dependence. We (Pendrill, Persson, 2020). While Austria currently is a net importer of
coupled the BioClim.at model with the CRAFT model to simulate how oilseeds (Fig. 2d), it is a net exporter of cereals and animal products. As
these 36 scenarios would affect the GHG budget in the agriculture and most of Austria’s agricultural GHG emissions are CH4 from cattle
forestry sectors, assuming a linear change of each variant until 2050. (Fig. S3), self-sufficiency scenarios result in a significant reduction of
The BioClim.at approach allows to assess the GHG budget in the agri­ cattle previously exported and the CH4 emissions associated with them.
cultural system as well as the agricultural land spared in each scenario. In forests, everything else remaining equal, the highest C sinks were
We considered that the spared agricultural lands were used for affor­ associated with the continuation of the current net trade pattern and a
estation in the different scenarios and assumed that annual wood harvest shift towards vegan diets, while the continuation of conventional
levels remain constant so that the harvest rate (tC ha-1) mechanistically farming and the meat- and dairy-rich diet variants are associated with
declines when afforestation occurs. the lowest C sink in forests. The implementation of technical mitigation
in agriculture had no effect on the C sink in forests as the considered
3. Results and discussion mitigation measures (e.g. feed additives to reduce CH4 emissions) were
by construction not related to agricultural area, i.e. forest regrowth.
3.1. The biophysical option space
3.2. Implications of scenarios for the embeddedness of the Austrian
Fig. 4 displays the biophysical option space of all 36 scenarios. Each agricultural system
cell shows the feasibility of a particular scenario in terms of land bal­
ances (i.e., all unfeasible scenarios would result in deforestation within The option space shows that a vast range of biophysical possibilities
Austria) and, for feasible scenarios, the corresponding GHG budgets. exists to meet the double goal of a balanced GHG budget in the agri­
This quantitative assessment revealed a large range of possibilities to cultural and forest sectors while feeding the population. However, it
feed the Austrian population in 2050 while turning the agriculture and does not inform us about the socio-political implications and potential

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Fig. 4. Land-use GHG emissions within Austria in 2050, in Mt CO2-eq./yr, with each field showing GHG emissions for one particular scenario. Scenarios not feasible
due to land constraints are marked in black and excluded from further analysis. Negative values indicate a net sink of GHG (in orange, yellow or green) while positive
values indicate net emissions of GHG (in red). Scenario circles in blue and named as S1 to S4 are discussed in more detail in Section 3.2.

Fig. 5. GHG emissions related to agricultural activities (a) and forest (b) within Austria in 2050, in Mt CO2-eq./yr, with each field showing GHG emissions (positive)
or sinks (negative) for one particular scenario. Scenarios not feasible due to land constraints are marked in black and excluded from further analysis.

barriers of those biophysical potentials. We therefore interpret four human diet could be interpreted as an integration by citizens of the need
contrasted scenarios (highlighted in Fig. 4) by relating their biophysical to contribute to climate change mitigation (Judge et al., 2022). How­
characteristics to the concepts of (dis-)embeddedness (Table 2). ever, the implicit presupposition of a spontaneous shift in diet leaves
Associated with the best score in terms of GHG budgets (15.8 Mt aside the fact that the current diet in Austria is not the sum of individual
CO2-eq./yr), scenario S1 (Fig. 4) assumes a shift towards a vegan diet, habits but rather the result of past and recent public agricultural and
the continuation of the conventional farming system and of the current food policies (see Section 2.1). These past public policies necessarily
net-trade pattern as well as the implementation of technical mitigation. create a path dependency for future evolutions in the land-use sector
In scenario S1, the shift from a rich meat and dairy products diet to a with many techno-economic lockers, including a strong importance of
vegan diet can therefore be interpreted as an ecological re-embedding of the livestock sector, which would most certainly hinder a shift towards a
the agricultural system where the suppression of livestock breeding re­ vegan diet. Therefore, to shift diet from the current one to a vegan one
sults in considerable agricultural land abandonment, allowing to reach a would certainly require strong public policies, bypassing the pressure of
negative GHG budget - thus contributing to climate change mitigation. the Agricultural Marketing Board (AMA), which is the central agency in
However, some trade-offs with other ecological dimensions may emerge charge of collecting agricultural market intelligence and administrating
in this scenario, e.g. with biodiversity or other biogeochemical cycles, the agricultural support programs of the Common Agricultural Policy
which are not considered in the present study. Such a radical shift in (Schermer, 2008). Such public policies would also severely impact

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J. Le Noë et al. Environmental Science and Policy 139 (2023) 228–239

Table 2
Summary of the social, spatial and ecological (dis-)embeddedness of the scenarios as interpreted from the bio-physical model indicators and the scientific literature.
Scenarios Social embeddedness Spatial embeddedness Ecological embeddedness
(Model indicators: diet, farming practices, technical (Model indicator: physical trade balance) (Model indicator: greenhouse gas budget, farming
mitigation, trade balance) practices, trade balance)

S1 Ambivalent: Positive: Positive with some ambivalence:

- Vegan diet could severely impact peasant activities and - Self-sufficiency, by definition, relies more on - Most negative GHG budget, thus contributing to
Austrian landscapes, local resources, thus being in line with the “food climate change mitigation,
- The features of conventional farming (reliance on land- from somewhere” idea (by opposition to “food - Reforestation of permanent grassland on spared land
use specialization industrial inputs) are rooted in a logic from nowhere”). following shift to vegan diet can lead to loss of habitat,
of food commodification, arising from agricultural and thus loss of biodiversity,
intensification and market integration of food products, - Conventional farming are less prone to agricultural
- Technical mitigations indicate increasing concern biodiversity, improve water quality, locally closing
regarding the environmental impact of agriculture, biogeochemical cycles, resilience to extreme climatic
- Self-sufficiency shifts the production focus towards events and human health than organic farming,
meeting domestic demand, representing a first step - Self-sufficiency can help to meet the target of locally
towards de-commodification. closing the nutrient cycles.
S2 Positive with some ambivalence: Negative: Positive with some ambivalence:
- The EAT-Lancet diet could allow a de-intensification of - The continuation of the current net-trade - Negative GHG budget contributes to climate change
grassland and pasture, which can be expected to promote pattern results in the continuation of a lesser mitigation,
a de-commodification of food products since spatial embeddedness of the agricultural system. - Organic farming are likely to promote to agricultural
intensification were a key element of food biodiversity, improve water quality, locally closing
commodification, biogeochemical cycles, resilience to extreme climatic
- Organic farming are less intense production systems, events and human health,- The continuation of the
which could favor a de-commodification of food, current trade pattern might fuel the externalization of
- However, organic farming products have since decades negative environmental impacts (but this effect is not
been integrated into lucrative food markets, so that it is investigated in the present study).
not a panacea,
- No implementation of technical mitigation can be seen
as a lesser concern for the environmental impact of
agriculture,
- The continuation of the current trade balance maintains
the status of food as a commodity integrated into
international trade.
S3 Ambivalent: Positive: Positive with some ambivalence:
- The EAT-Lancet diet contributes to social re-embedding - Self-sufficiency, by definition, relies more on - Negative GHG budget contributes to climate change
in S3, local resources, thus being in line with the “food mitigation, - Conventional farming are less prone to
- The features of conventional farming are likely to from somewhere” idea (by opposition to “food agricultural biodiversity, improve water quality,
pursue food commodification,- Technical mitigations from nowhere”). locally closing biogeochemical cycles, resilience to
indicate increasing concern regarding the environmental extreme climatic events and human health than
impact of agriculture, organic farming,- Self-sufficiency can help to meet the
- Self-sufficiency can be a first step towards de- target of locally closing the nutrient cycles.
commodification.
S4 Negative:- The current rich-diet in Austria has adverse Negative:- The continuation of the current net- Negative:- Positive GHG budget contributes to
health effects according to the WHO and is inequitable as trade pattern results in the continuation of a increasing climate change, - Conventional farming are
it cannot be generalized globally,- The features of lesser spatial embeddedness of the agricultural less prone to agricultural biodiversity, improve water
conventional farming are likely to pursue food system. quality, locally closing biogeochemical cycles,
commodification,- No implementation of technical resilience to extreme climatic events and human health
mitigation can be seen as a lesser concern for the than organic farming,- The continuation of the current
environmental impact of agriculture,- The continuation trade pattern might fuel the externalization of negative
of the current trade balance maintains the status of food environmental impacts (but this effect is not
as a commodity integrated into international trade. investigated in the present study).

peasant activities and Austrian landscapes (especially in Alpine regions) dependence upon industrial inputs. These structural features of con­
by a complete abandonment of grassland and breeding activities, which ventional farming are rooted in a common logic of food commodifica­
is hardly imaginable and would meet a strong resistance of interest tion, arising from agricultural intensification and market integration of
groups, in particular livestock producers, tourism and local populations food products (Friedmann, 2005; Langthaler and Schüßler, 2019). This
(Wendering, 2016). Therefore, while the vegan diet corresponds to an would be alleviated by shifting the production focus towards meeting
ecological re-embedding of agri-food systems whose production activ­ domestic demand in S1, representing a first step towards
ities would be oriented more by the need to limit the environmental de-commodification. Self-sufficiency would also help to meet the target
impact than by the motive to secure profits, its social embeddedness is of locally closing the nutrient cycles (Billen et al., 2021, 2015), which
more ambivalent as it could be detrimental to rural livelihood interruption have exceeded the limits for a safe operating space for
conditions. humanity (Rockström et al., 2009) driven by international biomass
The ecological re-embedding of S1 would also be limited by the trade, amongst others (Lassaletta et al., 2014; Nesme et al., 2018).
continuation of conventional farming system, as conventional farming, Hence, self-sufficiency can be associated with a stronger ecological and
despite promoting land sparing (Lamb et al., 2016; Seufert et al., 2012), spatial embeddedness. Overall, S1 would contribute to a re-embedding
has other environmental drawbacks compared to organic farming sys­ of the agri-food system in Austria, although it is prone to fuel conflic­
tems. For example, organic farming has been shown to promote agri­ tive situations, and this embeddedness might be weaker than suggested
cultural biodiversity (Leksono, 2017; Tuck et al., 2014), improve water by the quantitative estimates of the GHG budget.
quality (Benoit et al., 2014; Sivaranjani and Rakshit, 2019), allow better S2 represents a 33% lower carbon sink than S1, but still enables to
resilience to extreme climatic events (Borron, 2006) and improve human significantly absorb carbon from the atmosphere. S2 assumes a shift
health (Mie et al., 2017). Conventional farming systems are also the towards the EAT-Lancet diet, a full transition towards organic farming,
results of past public policies, including land-use specialization and the perpetuation of the current level of trade and the implementation of

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J. Le Noë et al. Environmental Science and Policy 139 (2023) 228–239

technical mitigation. Contrary to the vegan diet, the EAT-Lancet diet Similarly, to S2, the shift towards the EAT-Lancet diet would contribute
would have a less drastic impact on the activities of livestock farmers to an ecological and social re-embedding of the agri-food system in S3.
and the Austrian landscape. A transition towards the EAT-Lancet diet However, this re-embedding would be restrained by the perpetuation of
could allow a de-intensification of grassland and pasture, with beneficial conventional farming systems, although these systems could be de-
effects on grassland ecosystems (Knudsen et al., 2019). Therefore, intensified in S3 since the EAT-Lancet diet could allow for a de-
shifting towards the EAT-Lancet diet in S2 could contribute to a intensification of grassland and breeding activities. In S3, the search
de-intensification of breeding activity and grassland ecosystems. As the for food self-sufficiency would also contribute to de-commodify food
intensification of land-use was historically a key process for food surplus and feed whose production would be intended for local consumption
production available for the market (Polanyi, 2001), the rather than for the global market, while the non-dependency on food
de-intensification of grassland and breeding activity promoted by a shift and feed imports would help closing the biogeochemical cycles, thus
toward the EAT-Lancet diet can be expected to promote a improving the spatial embeddedness of food systems. In S3, reaching
de-commodification of food products and, as such, to contribute to an self-sufficiency while shifting toward the EAT-Lancet diet would thus
ecological and social re-embedding of the agri-food system in S2. increase social, spatial and ecological embeddedness of the Austrian
In S2, transitioning towards an organic farming system would pro­ agri-food system but the perseverance of the conventional farming sys­
mote long crop rotation with leguminous crops allowing symbiotic ni­ tems would limit these effects.
trogen fixation, resulting in less intense production systems (Billen et al., Finally, S4 would have the worst score in terms of GHG emissions
2021), which could favor a de-commodification of food. This interpre­ (2.4 Mt CO2-eq./yr). S4 assumes the perpetuation of the current agri-
tation, however, warrants a caveat that organic farming products have food system, including rich meat and dairy-based diets, conventional
since decades been integrated into lucrative food markets. However, farming system, the current trade pattern and no implementation of the
some examples of local organic production and consumption systems available technical mitigation. This scenario would therefore be in line
have been shown to come with beneficial effects not only in ecological, with the pursuit of the historical trends (see Section 2.1), in which food
but also in social terms (Milestad et al., 2010). Therefore, even though a and feed are further commodified through their integration within in­
full transition towards organic farming is not the panacea, it would still ternational markets, the continuation of intensive conventional farming
represent a further consideration of environmental concerns raised by systems as well as an inequitable rich meat and dairy products diet
citizens’ movements, particularly in line with the ‘food from some­ (Campbell, 2009; Friedmann, 2005). We understand S4 as the
where’ idea (Schermer, 2015). In Austria, such a transition would have most-disembedded of all scenarios and also the one with the worst GHG
to face many political and economic obstacles, mainly due to the balance.
deregulation policies of the agricultural markets leading Austrian
farmers into a competitive logic which is not likely to ease conversions 3.3. Methodological contributions and limitations
to organic farming (Kroll and Pouch, 2012; Sassatelli and Scott, 2001).
However, the fairly strong tradition of organic farming production and Combining the exploration of a biophysical option space with a
consumption in Austria may be beneficial to further organic expansion socio-political analysis based on Polanyi’s thinking and the food regime
(Schermer, 2015, 2008), which could be facilitated by bottom-up pres­ theory offered here a complementary approach to the Shared Socio-
sure from citizens upon policy-makers. economic Pathways (SSPs) in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
The continuation of the current net-trade pattern in S2 would result (Popp et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017; van Vuuren et al., 2017), albeit at
in the continuation of low spatial embeddedness of the agricultural the national level and for the agricultural system only.
system as well as maintaining the status of food as a commodity inte­ First, while the SSPs constrain the range of the biophysical possi­
grated into international trade. In our territorial-based approach, we bilities by first defining socio-economic narratives and then imple­
were not able to quantitatively estimate the externalized GHG emissions menting them into IAMs, the present approach pursues a reverse order
of imported feed while the potential global optimization of greenhouse by first evaluating a vast panel of options for the agricultural system
gas emissions by reallocating the production of land-based products is constrained by biophysical feasibility and the objectives of food supply
one of the most debated effects of international trade (Kastner et al., and non-deforestation, and second examining the socio-political impli­
2021). This idea originates from the adaptation of Ricardian economic cations of contrasting options. We thus follow a diagnostic approach to
reasoning of comparative advantage to environmental impacts on land explore the biophysical future option space of the agri-food system in
(Lambin, 2012). Some empirical studies indeed found that the reallo­ Austria. The SSPs provide quantifications of consistent, relevant and
cation of production through international trade of land-based products legitimate scenario narratives, however, leaving aside alternative
reduced global land requirements (Kastner et al., 2014; development trajectories of biophysically possible options, leading to an
Martinez-Melendez and Bennett, 2016; Xu et al., 2020) and associated implicit narrowing of the range of possibilities This narrowing of the
material use (Dombi et al., 2021). Roux et al. (2021), however, found possible scenarios has been vividly criticized (Anderson and Jewell,
that this did not hold when looking at the pressure on ecosystem func­ 2019; Keyßer and Lenzen, 2021), mostly because of their unquestioned
tions. Trade liberalization rather incentivizes countries with highly reliance upon economic profitability, growth, and self-regulative mar­
productive land as such in the tropics to specialize in exports of ket-mechanisms (Hickel et al., 2021; Warszawski et al., 2021). At the
land-based products, increasing the pressure on tropical ecosystems and national level and for a given sector, the approach implemented here
global greenhouse gas emissions of land use (Roux et al., 2021; Verburg allows to overcome this limit by analyzing the entire biophysical option
et al., 2009). Therefore, in S2, transitioning toward a fully organic space, without being constrained by ex-ante assumptions about the
farming system concomitantly to a shift in diet toward the EAT-Lancet evolution of the economy (Brand et al., 2021; Otto et al., 2020; Pichler
diet would increase ecological and social embeddedness of the et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2020).
agri-food systems while the continuation of the current trade pattern Second, IAMs often assume that commodities are distributed through
would limit the spatial embeddedness, mitigate the partial markets, under "perfect" competition and information about the world
de-commodification effect of the shift in diet and transition towards (Clarke et al., 2014). These assumptions are however in direct contra­
organic farming, and might even fuel the externalization of negative diction with the social theories used in this article, which prone the
environmental impacts (Fuchs et al., 2020). decommodification of food. Thus, even if IAMs would be calibrated to a
Assuming a shift towards the EAT-Lancet diet, the perpetuation of wider set of scenarios than the SSPs (for example scenarios without
conventional farming systems, a shift towards self-sufficiency of agri- economic growth), their interpretation through Polanyian social the­
food systems and the implementation of technical mitigation, S3 is ories would be at odds with the assumptions of the models. Unlike IAMs,
associated with a score 14% lower than S1 in terms of GHG emissions. biophysical models do not rely on any assumption about the structure

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J. Le Noë et al. Environmental Science and Policy 139 (2023) 228–239

and functioning of the economy. This leaves a high flexibility to inter­ research.
pret their results through the lenses of any social theory, without
inducing any contradiction between the assumptions of the model and Declaration of Competing Interest
the theories at hand. The present study, therefore, highlights the
importance of recognizing from the outset the bias associated with any The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
socio-economic theory in constructing and assessing sustainability sce­ interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
narios. Because systematically making explicit the socio-economic as­ the work reported in this paper.
sumptions selected, as well as those left aside, is urgent to scientifically
inform the debate on the possible future of land use systems, the present Data Availability
study contributes to this debate by offering an alternative approach to
constructing scenarios, first exploring the biophysical option space and Data are provided in SI 1&2.
then examining their socio-political implications on the basis of refer­
enced social theories and concepts.Hence, the approach presented here Acknowledgment
can help informing policy decisions and societal awareness about the
feasibilities and implications of future trajectories in the agri-food The authors gratefully acknowledge support This study was funded
system. by the research initiative “Earth System Sciences (ESS) from the Aus­
The option space is as well so far focusing on biomass, and is hence trian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) (project ZEAFOLU - Zero Emission in
isolated from other economic sectors. We do hence not model effects of Agriculture Forestry and Other Land-Use) and by the European Research
material, monetary, or labor transfers between agriculture and other Council (ERC-2017-StG757995HEFT, project HEFT - Hidden Emissions
economic sectors, which may result from the studied transformations as of Forest Transition). We thank Thomas Kastner for constructive and
dietary change. In this respect, the social, spatial and ecological helpful comments on a previous version of this manuscript.
embeddedness indicators we developed are necessarily reductive as they
do not explicitly deal with the (dis-)embeddedness of the economic
Appendix A. Supporting information
system. This limit could be overcome in future researches by coupling
the biophysical modeling with an economic model of the food produc­
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the
tion and distribution chain. This would allow the development labor,
online version at doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.006.
land and food commodification indicators, indicating that the greater
the commodification, the more the economy is disembedded from social
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