EMBRACING OPPORTUNITIES: BANGLADESH’S FOREIGN POLICY

AMID GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES

Mohammad Fakhrus Salam, Md. Rakib Mia, Shohana Abedin Lamisha, and Md.
Borhan Uddin Hemela

ABSTRACT
Bangladesh is critically shaping its foreign policy to address contemporary global
dynamics, particularly in South Asia. This paper examines the key factors that
influence future geopolitical shifts and analyses their implications for Bangladesh. It
employs a qualitative approach, allowing for in-depth analysis and interpretation of
the complex dynamics surrounding Bangladesh's foreign policy in anticipation of
geopolitical shifts. By exploring emerging trends in international relations, regional
dynamics, and technological advancements, this study identifies potential challenges
such as increased competition for resources, shifts in alliances, and the rise of non-
traditional security threats. Additionally, it highlights opportunities for Bangladesh
to leverage its strategic location, economic potential and diplomatic initiatives to
enhance its position on the global stage. Through a comprehensive assessment of
these factors, this paper aims to provide insights for policymakers to navigate the
complexities of the evolving geopolitical landscape and effectively advance
Bangladesh's national interests in the coming years.

Keywords: Geopolitics, Bangladesh foreign policy, power dynamics, anticipation

INTRODUCTION

A country's foreign policy primarily reflects its socio-economic and political needs in
international politics. In an era of rapid globalisation, technological advancements, and
shifting power dynamics, foreign policy formulation has become increasingly complex
for nations worldwide (Luo, Y., 2024). Historically, Bangladesh has maintained a non-
aligned foreign policy. She has emphasised "friendship towards all, malice towards
none" as the guiding concept of its diplomacy since gaining independence in 1971. As
a part of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), she has generally refrained from aligning
herself with larger nations (MoFA, 2023). However, the country that emerged so
forcefully in 1971 differs from what it is now. Bangladesh, formerly called a
"bottomless basket," is today called a "South Asian miracle." Despite the difficulties
that come with economic expansion, especially in light of the extreme wealth disparity

a
Mohammad Fakhrus Salam ([email protected]) is an Associate Professor in the Department of
Political Studies, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh. Md. Rakib Mia
([email protected]) is an undergraduate research student in the Department of Political
Studies, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh. Shohana Abedin Lamisha
([email protected]) is an undergraduate research student in the Department of Political Studies,
Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh. Md. Borhan Uddin Hemel
([email protected]) is an undergraduate research student in the Department of Political Studies,
Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.

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in the nation, overall economic development is still going well. The nation is rapidly
leaving the group of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) fifty-three years after gaining
independence. By 2035, it is expected to rank among the top 25 economies in the world
(Rahman, 2024). As its economy booms and the balance of world power moves
eastward, her role on the world stage becomes increasingly prominent daily.
Bangladesh is situated at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia; anticipating future
geopolitical shifts presents challenges and opportunities that will significantly shape its
foreign policy agenda in the coming years. As the international order undergoes
profound transformations, driven by the rise of new global powers, changing security
threats, and economic interdependence, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical juncture
where strategic foresight and proactive engagement are imperative. Bangladesh is
uniquely suited to play a vital role in furthering regional integration and allowing all
neighbouring regions to prosper together (Haque, 2023). This paper seeks to explore
the multifaceted nature and trends of the geopolitical landscape and its implications for
Bangladesh, examining the potential challenges that lie ahead and the opportunities that
can be harnessed to advance the country's interests on the global stage.

The paper is divided into nine sections, including introduction and conclusion.
The following section is a review of the relevant literature. The paper in the third section
focuses on Mackinder's Heartland Theory as a theoretical construct. The fourth section
of the paper highlights the methodology of this study. The fifth section draws insights
into the geopolitical analysis of Bangladesh. The sixth section analyses anticipating
future geopolitical shifts with reason and significance. This section presents the
discussion in two sub-sections—internal and external—on the challenges for
Bangladesh’s foreign policy. The eighth section of the study analyses the opportunities
of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. The paper in the final section summarises the
arguments and presents the concluding remarks.

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Global Trends 2040 emphasises how geopolitical trends and technological

advancements pose increasing environmental, migration, and foreign policy challenges.
These challenges are further intensified by environmental changes, extreme weather
events, and demographic shifts, as discussed in the report "Making Migration and
Integration Policies Future Ready."

Amin et al. (2023) underscored Bangladesh's energy security's critical

importance and susceptibility to geopolitical dynamics due to its reliance on imported
fossil fuels. The study delves into the impact of global energy dynamics and the
behaviour of major energy-producing countries on Bangladesh's energy landscape,
emphasising the necessity for strategic policies to mitigate geopolitical risks and ensure
sustainable development. Bangladesh's transition from an agricultural economy to an
emerging powerhouse is attributed to robust economic reforms and strategic energy
policies. The study highlights the strides made by the country in achieving energy
security amidst global challenges. It emphasises sustainable solutions to meet growing
demands and navigate geopolitical complexities for sustained development.

Kabir et al. (2018) discuss the geopolitical importance of South Asia, especially
the historical tensions and nuclear dynamics between India and Pakistan. The paper

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examines the region's strategic significance because of its location and natural
resources. It analyses the influence of major powers such as China and the United States
on shaping its geopolitical landscape.

Yasmin (2019; 2023) emphasised Bangladesh's evolving foreign policy

dynamics in response to the shifting global order, mainly influenced by the rise of China
and India. It delves into Bangladesh's strategic position between these major powers
and examines its strengths and challenges in navigating its policies. Ultimately, the
article aims to shed light on the strategies of small powers amidst the changing
geopolitical landscape and their potential role in shaping the future of international
politics. The emergence of Bangladesh as an assertive player in international politics is
driven by its internal stability, economic strength, and pragmatic foreign policy choices.
It highlights Bangladesh's transition from a recipient of foreign aid to a self-reliant
nation that sets its agenda, positioning itself as an emerging middle power in the global
arena (Yasmin, 2022).

Abedin (2015) highlights that despite infrastructure shortage and political

instability, Bangladesh's remarkable economic growth is driven by its small and
medium enterprises (SMEs). It emphasises the significance of foreign direct investment
(FDI) for employment generation, technology transfer, and market efficiency,
particularly in a globalised and competitive environment. Bangladesh's journey in
attracting FDI, marked by policy changes and sectoral openings, reflects progress and
room for improvement compared to other South Asian countries like India and Pakistan.
Chaturvedi (2014) explores how geopolitical fears drive the climate change
discourse in Bangladesh and its region, analysing the production of climate knowledge
to support political agendas. It discusses the implications for human security and rights,
advocating for counter-imaginative geographies of hope in addressing climate-induced
migrations in the global South.

Tunviruzzaman (2021) argued that the study depicts a strategy to counter India's
declining economic influence in Bangladesh and the importance of the One Belt-One
Road (OBOR) for Bangladesh. However, it does not provide any solution to shape
Bangladesh's foreign policy in the future.

Following the literature review, a potential research gap emerges regarding the
intersection of Bangladesh's energy security, geopolitical dynamics, and its evolving
foreign policy. Specifically, existing studies have discussed Bangladesh's reliance on
imported fossil fuels, its economic growth fuelled by energy reforms, and its assertive
foreign policy choices. However, there must be a gap in understanding how energy
security concerns influence Bangladesh's diplomatic engagements with these countries,
especially in emerging global energy dynamics and the country's transition towards
sustainable energy solutions. Thus, crisis management will concern the following
Bangladeshi foreign policy with diplomatic negotiation in world politics.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

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As Bangladesh seeks to navigate the complex realm of global geopolitics, an analysis
based on Mackinder's Heartland Theory (1904) highlights the challenges and
opportunities that will influence its foreign policy. Positioned at the intersection of
South Asia and Southeast Asia, Bangladesh's strategic importance extends beyond its
borders, impacting broader regional dynamics.

Mackinder emphasised in the article of the “Geographical Pivot of History”

paradigm lies the notion of geographical determinism, positing that control over the
Eurasian Heartland equates to global dominance. In the 21 st century, Bangladesh only
directly commands this pivotal territory, besides its strategic location and economic
prowess related to the regional power dynamic. Bangladesh's foreign policy is central
to its relationship with neighbouring states such as India and China. Mackinder's theory
analyses the criticality of these ties, portraying them as instrumental in shaping regional
power balances. Bangladesh must deftly navigate the complexities of its bilateral
relations, leveraging economic and diplomatic overtures to forge mutually beneficial
partnerships while guarding against undue influence or coercion.

The maritime domain emerges as another focal point in Bangladesh's

geopolitical calculus, mirroring Mackinder's emphasis on control over strategic
waterways. With its coastline along the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh commands a vital
nexus of maritime trade routes, offering opportunities for economic growth and
vulnerabilities to external coercion. As global powers vie for dominance in the Indo-
Pacific, Bangladesh must fortify its naval capabilities and diplomatic ties to safeguard
its maritime interests. Additionally, the theory underscores the imperative of regional
cooperation, advocating for collaborative frameworks to mitigate maritime disputes and
foster collective security.
Moreover, Mackinder's theory invites reflection on Bangladesh's role within
broader regional and multilateral frameworks. As a member of organisations such as
SAARC and BIMSTEC, Bangladesh wields a platform for collective action and
diplomatic engagement. However, the theory cautions against the pitfalls of regional
fragmentation and power struggles, urging Bangladesh to foster inclusive partnerships
grounded in mutual respect and shared objectives. By embracing a nuanced
understanding of its strategic imperatives and leveraging diplomatic finesse,
Bangladesh can navigate the complexities of global power dynamics while advancing
its national interests and contributing to regional stability and prosperity.

METHODOLOGY

This study uses qualitative methods, allowing for a comprehensive exploration of the
topic. It employs a qualitative approach, enabling in-depth analysis and interpretation
of the complex dynamics surrounding Bangladesh's foreign policy in anticipation of
geopolitical shifts. Content analysis collects data, examining government documents,
policy papers, academic articles, and reports from international organisations to provide
additional context and insights.

Data analysis includes both thematic and interpretative analysis. The thematic
analysis aims to identify recurring themes, patterns, and meanings within the qualitative
data obtained from document analysis. On the other hand, interpretative analysis
involves interpreting the data using relevant theory in international relations, providing

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deeper insights into the underlying dynamics shaping Bangladesh's foreign policy
decisions and strategies. The triangulation of findings from multiple data sources
enhances the validity and reliability of the research findings.

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF BANGLADESH

The birth of Bangladesh in 1971 marked the first successful instance of an ethnic-
linguistic nationalist movement, creating a new state in the post-colonial period (Jahan
et al., 2015). Bangladesh shares its borders with India to the east, West, and north and
with Myanmar to the southeast. To the South, it is bordered by the Bay of Bengal. The
country is between the Indian mainland and the Seven Sisters and shares borders with
four states of the Seven Sisters: Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram. The only
connection between the Indian mainland and the Seven Sisters is the Chicken Neck
Corridor, also known as the Siliguri Corridor.

It is located in the northern part of the Indian state of West Bengal. Bangladesh
is at one end of the corridor, and Nepal and Bhutan are at the other. Transporting goods
from India's mainland to the Seven Sisters via the Chicken Neck Corridor takes longer
and costs more. Transporting goods through Bangladesh under transit facility takes less
time and is less costly. So, India needs a transit facility. Myanmar is located on a small
portion of the frontier to the southeast. Without a common border, Bangladesh is
connected with the entire Southeast Asian region through Myanmar. The land border
of Bangladesh with Myanmar is about 243 kilometres, and the land border with India
is about 4025 kilometres. Without sharing a direct border, Bangladesh's closest
neighbours are China (distance of 100 km), Nepal (22 km), and Bhutan (distance of 22
km). Bangladesh's neighbours include three nations with nuclear power (Kabir, 2018).

Figure 1: Map of Bangladesh's neighbouring borders

Source: www.britannica.com, 2024

Bangladesh’s exclusive geographical position, fast economic progress, and

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global collaborations have made it an influential middle power (Ara, 2023). The unique
position of Bangladesh as a gateway between South and Southeast Asia, along with its
strategic location on the Bay of Bengal, has motivated major powers to seek increased
influence within the country actively. India, China, Russia, Australia, Britain, and Japan
are critical South and Southeast Asia players. The Bay of Bengal is very significant
based on geographic location.

Figure 2: Map of the Bay of Bengal

Source: www.britannica.com, 2024

It is linked with the Andaman Sea and the Malacca Straits. In addition, South
and Southeast Asia, as well as the Indian Ocean, are directly connected with the Bay of
Bengal. In the light of natural resources, navigation, oil, gas and the Maritime Silk
Road, the Bay of Bengal is now a hotspot of regional competition. For both China and
India, the natural resources of the Bay of Bengal are of great significance. China wants
to have direct connectivity with the Indian Ocean via the Bay of Bengal, via Southeast
East Bangladesh or the Rakhine state of Myanmar (Ahmed & Rahman, 2020). Regional
and global powers are now competing to ensure their presence in the region of the Bay
of Bengal (Scott, 2006; Islam, 2018).

It is very natural for Bangladesh that an emerging Southeast Asian economy,

which is fighting many social and economic problems such as poor infrastructural
development, massive population, unemployment, poverty, etc., will accept every
opportunity and investment offered to develop its position. Bangladesh is getting this
facility in a regular flow from China. But this does not mean that Bangladesh has
accepted all the diktats with blindfolded eyes, being not subservient by not agreeing to
the Chinese conditions on the construction of the Sonadia deep-sea port in 2014
(Bhattacharjee, 2018).

To expand trade through the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), the Bangladesh,
China, India, and Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM), China's Maritime Silk Road
(MSR), the Bay of Bengal is needed for China. China has a significant naval presence
in the Bay of Bengal. Currently, the BNS Sheikh Hasina Submarine Base is being
constructed by China in Pekua, Cox's Bazar. Despite having the most extensive naval

6
base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the United States of America plans to
leverage the Chittagong Sea ports to enhance its strategic dominance in South Asia,
which is attached to the region's significance in global politics.

Bangladesh is bounded by India, both inland and maritime, except for a small
border with Myanmar. A country's geopolitics may be negatively impacted by being
landlocked or having a common border with only one other nation. The building of the
Farakka barrage and the potential for building further barrages also emerged as
vulnerabilities given by the nature of Bangladesh, which the country views as a
geopolitical disadvantage. If Siligiuri Corridor were Bangladesh's part, it could have
brought an advantageous position. Through this, Bangladesh could directly contact
Nepal and Bhutan and make a more accessible linkage to China.

India has demonstrated itself as Bangladesh's all-time ally and time-tested

neighbouring friend. Still, China’s approach towards Bangladesh is mainly criticised
by Indian scholars, although there is proof that India itself is trying to develop its
relationship with China (Uddin & Bhuiyan, 2011). Experts are alarmed that the growth
of Sino-Bangladesh relations can destabilize Indo-Bangladesh's trust in one another
economically and politically. However, Bangladeshi diplomats have shredded Dhaka's
neutral and impartial position between New Delhi and Beijing. Michael Kugelman, the
Deputy Director of the Asian Program of Wilson Center, believes the growing Sino-
Bangladesh relation has intensified the Indo-China geopolitical rivalry over the last few
years and can damage the relationship of Dhaka with New Delhi. He also claimed that
the status quo could lead Bangladesh to the Chinese 'Debt-Trap Diplomacy' like
Pakistan and Sri Lanka (Bodetti, 2019).

ANTICIPATING FUTURE GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS

Bangladesh, independent during the peak of the Cold War, finds itself intricately
intertwined in the complexities of geopolitics. Bangladesh has consistently been
entangled in the rivalries of dominant nations, including the enduring rivalry between
India and Pakistan, the Cold War contest between the USA and the USSR, and,
presently, the competition between China and the Western block (Rahman, 2021). The
relationships between the United States and Bangladesh, China and Bangladesh, and
India and Bangladesh are closely intertwined with Bangladesh's growing geopolitical,
geostrategic, and geo-economic significance (Ara, 2023; Shovon & Rahman, 2023).
The United States, China, and India are actively competing to exert influence in
Bangladesh, driven by their respective interests and goals. The impact of each of these
countries in Bangladesh can be observed in different areas such as trade, investment,
military and diplomatic relations.

In the geopolitical landscape of Bangladesh, India has consistently occupied a

central position, while the United States has considerable influence. On the other hand,
regional powers such as China have a peripheral role (Anwar, 2019). In recent years,
China has quickly established itself as a key player in Bangladesh's geopolitical scene
alongside the United States and India. China's aspiration to revive the ancient Silk Road
and Bangladesh’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have significantly
increased the relationship between China and Bangladesh. BRI membership has

7
brought Bangladesh an influx of Chinese investment totalling USD 38.05 billion. This
is approximately 10% of Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP). It is the most
significant single-country investment in the nation's history (Anwar, 2022). China now
holds Bangladesh’s top trading partner, direct foreign investor, trade importer, and
military hardware supplier.

The United States and India consider the rise of China in Bangladesh to be an
opposing development that will reduce their geopolitical space in the region.
Bangladesh is India's most trusted South Asian neighbour; however, China's growing
influence has led to Indian worries about security. Over the years, India's policy towards
Bangladesh has revolved around three core objectives: preserving influence, limiting
foreign and defence policy options, and exerting control over Bangladesh's political and
social landscape to serve India's interests (Anwar, 2023a). India's recent engagement
with Bangladesh through various connectivity initiatives, such as the Bangladesh-
Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) road network and investments in the energy and
infrastructure sectors, reflect its aspiration to maintain its influential position in the
country. India responded to the substantial Chinese investment in Bangladesh by
announcing a record-breaking $5 billion in loans, marking the most significant
investment India has made in Bangladesh to date (Anwar, 2019).

On the other hand, Bangladesh’s relations with the US have witnessed

remarkable growth in trade, investment, and people-to-people connections despite
occasional ups and downs. The United States is the largest market for Bangladeshi-
made garments (the backbone of Bangladesh’s economy) and the largest source of
remittances. The United States is Bangladesh's third-largest trading partner after China
and India. Bangladesh enjoys a trade surplus with the US, a significant aspect of their
economic relationship. However, the US-Bangladesh relationship is currently
experiencing an unpleasant situation. The United States has accused the current regime
in Bangladesh of engaging in political violence, human rights violations, and election
manipulation. In response, the US has taken decisive actions, including imposing visa
restrictions. However, some argue that these accusations aim to pressure Bangladesh to
reduce China's influence in the country, reflecting the broader geopolitical competition
between the United States and China (Deuskar, 2023).

The US wants Bangladesh to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)

and the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), both seen as mechanisms led by the US to counter
China's influence. Conversely, China has categorically asserted that Bangladesh's entry
into the Quad will “substantially damage” their bilateral relations. Another geopolitical
competition factor is affecting Bangladesh's ties with China, India, and the US. While
having amicable relations with the United States, India poses a hurdle to enhancing US-
Bangladesh relations. India fears that Bangladesh's deepening engagement with other
major powers could diminish its dominant position. While India welcomes US
involvement to counter China's influence, it does not support the extensive US political
influence in its neighbour (Anwar, 2023a). Experts believe India strategically benefits
by pitting Beijing and Washington against one another in Dhaka without utilising its
resources. India remained on the sidelines and capitalized on the situation while the two
major powers competed against each other (Anwar, 2023b). Bangladesh's adoption of
its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) outlook, abstention on a Ukraine resolution and cautious
engagement with BRI demonstrate its commitment to avoid taking sides in geopolitical

8
power games. Bangladesh aims to work on continuously balancing and managing
complex power relations. However, it is always challenging for a country like
Bangladesh to achieve a balanced relationship with these powers in the current
geopolitical environment. India and China's strong support for Sheikh Hasina during
Bangladesh's 2024 general election, despite criticism from the US regarding democratic
backsliding, highlights the convergence of geopolitics and economics. Hasina's adept
management of multiple partnerships and commitment to a strategic autonomy doctrine
have played a crucial role in navigating these multifaceted competition dynamics
(Khasru, 2024).

The growing tensions between China and India and the escalating rivalry
between the US and China will make it more challenging for Bangladesh to maintain a
balanced relationship among these powers. Bangladesh must grasp the unfolding
dynamics of great power competition and navigate its foreign affairs adeptly to ensure
its survival in the new geopolitical era. The ability to safeguard national interests and
maintain political independence will determine whether Bangladesh is caught in bloc
politics or emerges successfully (Haque & Lau, 2023). Aid Data predicts that
Bangladesh will remain a crucial battlefield for great power competition in the future.
This is due to its strategic location and recent geopolitical trends, including the rise of
India and escalating tensions between China and the US in the South China Sea (Palma,
2023).

Geopolitically, Bangladesh is more significant. The reasons of this significance

include:

The Asian Highway

Bangladesh recognises the importance of regional connectivity for fostering economic
growth, social development and cultural exchange (Hossain & Jami, 2024). For
Bangladesh, the Asian Highway is potentially more accessible and manageable at a low
cost. It links India with south-eastern countries, and Bangladesh is connected with these
countries through India. Even if Bangladesh has not yet joined the Asian Highway due
to disagreements with India over each other's proposals, Bangladesh is still a country
that should not be avoided.

Indo-Pacific Strategy

Bangladesh's dilemma is based on specific global, regional and national contexts. The
US and China are growing interested in having a strategic alliance with Bangladesh in
the Indo-Pacific region (Naomi, 2021). China has a long history of strong bilateral
relations with Asian countries; recently, China has invested in Bangladesh's
infrastructural sector. This rapid growth of the Sino-Bangladesh relationship has
become a significant concern for a time-tested friend and neighbouring country, India.
It has become a substantial debate of study, at least in the pitch of international relations
and power politics. The discussion leads to some queries, such as whether China's
economic approach towards Bangladesh is to check India's power, to counter the 'Pivot
to Asia’ policy of the USA, or to take control over South Asian geopolitics. China's
continuous investments in Bangladesh also portray that China is making a field in
Bangladesh to exercise its ‘debt-trap’ strategy in the name of a development partner
and her BRI (Belt and Road Initiatives) execution to subjugate the region, just like the

9
cases of Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The USA has invited Bangladesh to become a partner
in the Indo-Pacific Strategy. According to the United States, "Bangladesh's geographic
location connecting South and Southeast Asia makes it a strategically significant nation
in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific area (The Daily Star, 2023)." Bangladesh is vital to
the Indo-Pacific strategy of Australia, Japan, India, and the United States due to its
location.

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation

(BIMSTEC)

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
(BIMSTEC) is a regional organisation comprised of seven member states around the
Bay of Bengal region. It comprises five members from South Asia (Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and two from Southeast Asia (Myanmar and
Thailand), serving as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. Certain countries
within BIMSTEC have specific demands due to their particular conditions. For
instance, Bangladesh and Nepal are the two least developed countries (LDCs) expected
to graduate from the LDC status in 2026 (Khatun, 2022).

Transit Way

Global trade dynamics are shifting, and alliances can change rapidly. If transit becomes
fully operational, Bangladesh’s global standing could improve significantly. On June
23, 2024, several project agreements, including transit and the Teesta Master Plan, were
signed between India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh aims to achieve a 22% GDP growth
by 2041, with an interim goal of officially becoming a developing country by 2026. To
retain duty-free access on 97% of its exports to India. The transit-transshipment
initiative will enhance India-Bangladesh strategic relations, remove trade barriers, and
support the implementation of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
(CEPA).

Transit and transhipment will also boost Bangladesh’s transportation

infrastructure, involving local trucks and creating economic opportunities. Also,
Bangladesh will gain better access to Nepal and Bhutan through the Indian Territory,
enhancing regional trade and connectivity (Jamil, 2024).

ASEAN and Its Role in Solving the Rohingya Crisis

ASEAN is a regional cooperative organisation in Southeast Asia. The main principles

of ASEAN are:

i) Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another;

ii) Respect for each nation's national identity, sovereignty, equality, and
geographical integrity;
iii) Settlement of differences or disputes in a peaceful manner, etc.

Different ASEAN countries have varying national characters and political

systems, but one thing they all have in common is a serious commitment to human
rights. The Rohingya population has sought refuge in three ASEAN countries:
Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These countries have all shown a similar reluctance
to accept the Rohingyas. In 2021, the US hosted a summit with the ASEAN alliance in
10
Brunei, where Myanmar was notably excluded. This exclusion sends a clear message
that both ASEAN countries and the United States disapprove of the human rights
violations committed by the Myanmar army.

During the ethnic cleansing period, Bangladesh opened its border to the
persecuted and destitute Rohingya people and set a historical precedent for humanity.
The locals of Cox's Bazar accepted and welcomed those stateless people, hoping they
would return to their land in a safer environment with the international community's
support. Locals' hopes, however, were broken when they observed that, without any
sign of repatriation, those 1.1 million guests stayed in their land for over seven years.
Today, hosts pay economic, social and environmental costs for demonstrating
humanity. In this situation, ASEAN member states must develop a refugee and asylum
policy that includes guidance for action when a member state’s internal issues cause
people to flee to neighbouring states (Shivakoti, 2023).

CHALLENGES FOR BANGLADESH's FOREIGN POLICY

The interactions among the United States, China, and India have far-reaching
consequences for the politics, economy, and prospects of the South Asian region,
especially for smaller states. Bangladesh must carefully navigate this complex
landscape, fostering constructive relationships with all three powers while prioritising
regional cooperation and development. Overreliance on any power within the nexus
can lead to vulnerabilities and dependence. Below are some internal and external
challenges discussed:

Internal Challenges of Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy

Human Rights

The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) is deeply concerned about the
grave human rights violations in Bangladesh, in addition to validating the concerns of
many member states of the United Nations. Human rights abuses and the oppression of
civil society deserve public scrutiny. The UN International Federation of Human Rights
has expressed deep concern about the refusal to address serious human rights violations,
including enforced disappearances, torture, executions and impunity by law
enforcement agencies, as well as gender-based violence and the rights of LGBTIQ
people. Whenever human rights organizations such as Amnesty International,
Transparency International or Human Rights Watch raise allegations of disappearances,
extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, media suppression or impunity, the government
generally denies the allegations or invents a conspiracy. The international community
considers the statement of these organizations more credible than the government's
statement. It is imperative to interact with international human rights organizations and
create a credible image in the outside world (Hossain, 2024). Bangladesh has significant
restrictions on freedom of expression (State, 2023). Human rights reporting also
informs the work of civil society. These include human rights defenders, lawmakers,
scholars, immigration judges, asylum officials, multilateral institutions, and other
governments.

Rohingya Issue and Internal Crisis

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On August 25, 2017, the world witnessed a massive humanitarian crisis in Myanmar's
Rakhine state. Millions of Rohingya fled Rakhine State after violent attacks, and their
villages were destroyed. The combined population of Teknaf and Ukhiya before this
inflow of refugees was 4 lakh (400,000). After the crisis, about two and half times more
people have added to this figure and have started to affect the regular financial life of
the area. Below are statistics that illustrate the implications of the refugee crisis in
Bangladesh.
● The number of travellers to the region has declined due to instability
stemming from refugee inflows. Cox’s Bazar-based tourism income has already
been negatively affected by the influx of refugees.
● A survey shows that prices for essential foodstuffs have increased since
the influx of Rohingya. Besides, 2,500 households dropped below the poverty
level, and 1,300 became vulnerable in Cox's Bazar region.
● The Rohingya refugees primarily work in the unskilled sector, such as
construction or fishery. They work for a substantially lower wage (US$3.5 per
day) than local labourers (US$5.90 per day), generating unemployment and a
sense of rivalry among the locals.
● The refugees are cutting trees to build their houses and gathering fuel
for cooking, which is a fundamental contributor to rapid deforestation in the
camp’s region. Already, 4,818 acres of forest reserves have disappeared due to
refugee settlement costs of US$55 million. If this camp exists for eight years,
the carbon sequestration loss will increase to US$1,579,416.
●
Inhabitants of sizeable foreign aid agencies, workers and refugees
brought price hikes in the market from where poor local people and day worker
purchase their essential commodities. Based on the annual measurements, the
water level of Ukhia is decreasing, which entails a shortage of fresh water in the
area. Moreover, sharing water points, toilets, and other necessary services
sometimes leads to clashes between the Rohingya and the locals.
●
The Rohingya are fleeing the refugee camp and are spreading to the
mainland or other districts of Bangladesh to live with a Bangladeshi identity.
Rohingya have a track record of using fabricated Bangladeshi passports to work
abroad, particularly in Middle Eastern states. They also involve themselves in
unlawful events in those states, and for that reason, the reputation of
Bangladeshis on the global stage has become threatened.
● So far, 471 cases have been registered against 1,105 Rohingya alleging
theft, abduction, rape, drug trading and human trafficking, which have become
a security pain for Bangladesh. Due to poverty and survival, many Rohingya are
now working as fellow Yabba smugglers for Bangladeshi drug dealers.
●
Numerous studies suggest that militant groups like the Rohingya
Solidarity Organization, the Arakan Islamic Front and the Rohingya Patriotic
Front operate from Bangladesh-Myanmar border territories and integrate
Rohingya into their activities. Moreover, Islamic militant groups in Bangladesh,
especially the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jamat-i-Islami, have been
economically subsidising refugees to undertake criminal operations inside
Bangladesh. This poses a security threat for Bangladesh.
The following table shows Bangladesh’s projected economic losses from the
Rohingya crisis.
12
 Table 1: Projected financial consequences of the Rohingya Crisis for
Bangladesh
Required Years Cost of Hosting
Assumptions for Repatriation Rohingya’s
(Million USD)
300 Rohingya repatriated per day— 12 (up to 2029) 12 (up to 2029) 9,197
Population growth and inflation rates
adjusted
100 Rohingya repatriated per day— 42 (up to 2059) 42 (up to 2059) 75,011
Population growth and inflation rates adjusted
No repatriation 1 (up to 2019) 1,211
Population growth and inflation rates
Adjusted 5 (up to FY2023) 7,046

10 (up to 2028) 17,204

12 (up to 2030) 22,429

Source: Bhuiyan & Salam, 2021
This large number of refugees is a significant burden for Bangladesh. The
government sometimes faces various political pressures and security problems with
these refugee camps. The Bangladesh government has to deal with the multifaceted
reality of these Rohingya refugees. There is unlimited reluctance in Myanmar to
repatriate these refugees. Considering the overall situation, it is doubtful that Myanmar
will take back the Rohingyas shortly. As a result, this problem is not a matter of solving
in a year or two. Myanmar's insistence on taking back refugees reinforces that belief.
However, the problem has not been resolved due to Myanmar's negative role
for a long time. In the context of Myanmar's negative role in repatriating the Rohingyas,
the problem is a long-term one for Bangladesh (Haque, 2018). Many of the Rohingyas
are leaving to go abroad, especially in the Middle East, by using their Bangladeshi
passport, and they are taking out of the foreign job market. One of the interviewees (40)
from Hijolia village at Ukhia Upazilla in Cox's Bazar district has lived in Saudi Arabia
since 1996. He said that the Rohingyas people earned much defame in Saudi Arabia by
doing different unlawful activities and that this defame directly reflects Bangladesh as
they hold Bangladeshi passports; for that reason, we are losing our labour market in
Saudi Arabia. A faculty of Chittagong University and a resident of Ukhia Upazila
blamed the Rohingya refugees for HIV in the Cox's Bazar area. He said, "Cox's Bazar
is the most vulnerable area for HIV." He also said that Rohingyas are "taking our
happiness; they always give us pain in different ways."
Commodity Price

Last year, 2023, the consumer goods market was bullish almost throughout the year.
Every commodity in the market has increased at an abnormal rate. According to the
Bureau of Statistics, the previous year, i.e., in 2022, where the price inflation was 7.7
percent, increased to 9.02 percent in 2023 (BBS, 2024). The food inflation rate was
over 12 percent in July-August (BBS, 2024). Economist Zahid Hossain said that in such
a situation, it is necessary to recognise the depth of the problem' at the policy-making
stage of the government. According to him, it is essential to note that the strategy taken
by the authorities in 2023 to control inflation needs to be revised. If the prices of
commodities, including rice, start to spike, people of limited income will su ffer and

13
face a more vulnerable economic situation. As Bangladesh has recently graduated from
a low-income to a lower-middle-income country and aspires to become an upper-
middle-income country by 2030 and a developed one by 2041, it is high time to restrict
the market and ensure control over the local market.
Foreign Reserve Crisis

The data analysis shows a continuous decrease in Bangladesh's reserves from the
beginning to the end of last year (2023). According to Bangladesh Bank, reserves were
US$32.22 billion in January and are expected to reduce by $21 billion in December.
According to the International Monetary Fund's accounting system, reserves were
US$24.75 billion in June and decreased to $19.52 billion in November. Economists
suggest that if unreserved money in the international market, money in the IMF's SDR
sector, money held as foreign currency clearing by banks, and cash for payment of
Asian Clearing Union (AKU) bills are considered, the number of reserves will decrease
further. It is noted that Bangladesh needs more effective facilities to maintain the
balance of foreign exchange and monitor the flow of money within the country. A small
and concentrated export sector, combined with low FDI, will likely erode the
competitiveness of its exports. As a result, Bangladesh may record structural current
account deficits in the near to medium term.

Fuel Supply

Providing uninterrupted and reliable electricity to all at an affordable price is a

significant undertaking for the governments of increasingly energy-hungry countries
(Islam, 2021). Last summer of 2023, the general public suffered greatly due to
temporary power outages. The power crisis affected individuals and businesses alike,
stemming from a shortage of reserves and dollars to purchase fuel for power plants.
Consequently, suppliers stopped providing fuel because of unpaid dues, leading to the
temporary shutdown of several power plants, with others operating at reduced capacity.
Additionally, unstable fuel prices, particularly for oil and gas, can lead to decreased
production in various sectors and economic instability.

To address the above issues, the government must diversify the economy to
reduce dependence on a few sectors and mitigate risks from global market fluctuations.
For developing countries, economic diversification is often linked with structural
transformation and achieving higher productivity levels. This involves moving
economic resources within and between sectors such as services. To reduce dependency
on any single country or bloc, Bangladesh should diversify its trade partners,
particularly in markets such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Attract FDI
from a broader range of countries by improving the ease of business and establishing
special economic zones. This would mitigate geopolitical tensions and economic
downturns in traditional markets.

External Challenges of Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy

Repairing Relations with the United States

In foreign affairs, the biggest and most important challenge for the foreign ministry is
to bring Bangladesh-US bilateral relations to a rational level. The relationship was
14
strained long before the election. In December 2021, the US government imposed
sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and some former and current officials.
The United States announced on May 24, 2023, a visa ban on officials from the
administration, law enforcement, politicians, and even the judiciary who would disrupt
fair elections in Bangladesh. They also said the ban took effect on September 22, 2023.
Bangladesh was also not invited to the Democracy Summit held in 2021 and 2023 at
the initiative of the White House. The new policy on labour rights was announced on
November 16, 2023. The US Secretary of State mentioned Kalpana Akhter, the leader
of the garment workers of Bangladesh, as an example while making that announcement.
Despite saying that the election was not free and fair, the reaction of the United States
after the formation of the new government is very questionable. As a result, the
government may have agreed with the United States. It should be noted that although
the intensity of the US commentary has decreased in the pre-election weeks, it has
always been stated in the regular briefings of the White House or the State Department
that there has been no change in the US policy regarding the elections in Bangladesh.

The Secretary of State must monitor the US's future steps and continue efforts
to normalise bilateral relations. No matter how cordial relations are between China and
India, Bangladesh's primary export market is in the West. Expatriate income should
also be kept in mind. In the 2022–23 fiscal year, US$3.52 billion in expatriate income
came from the United States. The United States ranks second only to Saudi Arabia in
terms of expatriate income. So, any sanctions from the West could throw Bangladesh's
current economy into further crisis. According to Atexa data, Bangladesh exported
$119 million of ready-made garments to the United States in the first two months of
2024. This export is 19.24 percent less than in the same period last year, 2023.
However, exports fell by 36 percent last January. Despite the decrease in exports, there
has been no significant change in the market share. At the end of February,
Bangladesh's share in the US market in the export of ready-made garments was 9.12
percent. Bangladesh is the third top garment exporter in this market. So, maintaining
this relationship is very important for Bangladesh's economy.
Negotiation with European Union

The election of 2024 emphasised European Union (EU) values such as democracy,
human rights, and the rule of law. The ambassador's dialogue is much more flexible
and positive for the government than the EU's previous position on the election or
statements by the High Representative. However, among the two benefits he
mentioned, the European Banking Authority EBA facility is only for less developed
countries. This benefit will not be available after graduation. Conditions for receiving
a Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) include human rights, labour rights,
environmental protection, climate change and good governance. Due to the quality and
price of Bangladeshi clothing, demand for it is increasing in European countries. Also,
the factory and labour environment are among the areas of concern of the European
Union. As a result, the continuous improvement of the environment of garment
factories in Bangladesh is also attracting importers. Currently, the country's total
number of green factories is 192, out of which 50 of the 100 most environmentally
friendly green factories in the world certified by Leadership in Energy and
Environmental Design (LEED) are in Bangladesh. Bangladesh will have to continue its
strenuous efforts to retain this market, which is the largest export of Bangladesh as a
single unit (Saadi, 2022). Relations with the UK may be less critical than those in the
US globally. However, this country is the third largest destination of Bangladeshi

15
export products. A large Bangladeshi community also lives there. The foreign ministry
should, therefore, strive to maintain effective relations with the country.

Relations with India

Bangladesh's relations with India are crucial for its foreign policy. There is closeness
to a great and glorious civilisation that Bangladesh can claim as its heritage, economic
complementaries that both countries can explore to mutual advantage, bonds of
fraternity and gratitude for India’s considerable help in Bangladesh’s struggle for
independence. On the other hand, there are anxieties compelled by the unequal powers
of the two states; there is cynicism about India’s motives in helping Bangladesh in
1971; and there are misunderstandings generated by felt religious and political distances
that are difficult to allay or ignore (Andaleeb et al. 2007). India has received everything
it wanted from Bangladesh, including the expulsion of separatist groups, transit
facilities, and increased entry of Indian products into the market. India earns large sums
of foreign exchange from Bangladesh through tourism, medical visits, surveillance
radars, and weapons purchases. Many Indians have entered the labour market in
Bangladesh, and their annual remittances exceed five billion dollars (Kabir, 2017). The
list of achievements of Bangladesh is quite complicated. It took India 52 years to ratify
the Indira-Mujib Agreement on the border, which also goes in India's favour, with a
slight change. The short land distance from Bangladesh to Nepal, Bhutan, and India has
not yet been transit-facilitated. India has given a credit line of seven billion dollars in
three instalments. The Ganges Water Sharing Agreement was signed in 1996. The
Teesta water-sharing agreement has gone to the freezer at one stage, and Bangladesh
does not get the water it needs during the dry season—no word on the rest of the 54
international rivers. The Assam Citizen Register and Indian Citizenship Amendment
Act, designed to expel 'foreigners' from the Indian state of Assam, is unsorted yet.
Above all, the issue that causes the most outrage among the people of Bangladesh is
the continuous killing of Bangladeshi citizens by the Indian Border Security Force
(BSF) along the border.

Balance Diplomacy

The government of Bangladesh maintains congenial relations with regionally and

internationally influential countries while establishing balanced diplomacy and getting
its benefits. In the global and regional context, the China-India, US-Russia, China-
Japan and China-US conflicts are no longer a matter of hiding. Bangladesh has
developed integrated economic, commercial and strategic military cooperation with
these five influential countries. Political relations with India are currently deep, and
India depends on China regarding economic development. Diplomats and security
analysts have warned that Bangladesh should not lose sight of national interests in
balancing these two countries. The Teesta water-sharing issue with India has not been
resolved. Even the Joint River Commission (JRC) has not met for seven to eight years.

In 1996, the government of Bangladesh maintained the balance in sub-

continental politics, but it is no longer. In 1998, when India and Pakistan detonated
nuclear bombs, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina rushed to Delhi and Islamabad with a
'message of peace'. SAARC is now utterly ineffective at Delhi's will. Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina has said that SAARC is needed. Recently, India's senior diplomat,
Muchkund Dubey, also told Prothom Alo that there is no need to bury SAARC. Can

16
you wake up again? Regional and sub-regional initiatives such as Bangladesh-Bhutan-
India-Nepal (BBIN) and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Forum for Regional
Cooperation (BCIM) as alternatives to SAARC were also unsuccessful. However, there
is an opportunity for development in the internal affairs of Bangladesh as well as the
political imbalance of the sub-continent (Rehman, 2021). One of the biggest challenges
of the current foreign policy is to balance the relationship with dealing with internal
problems to maintain Bangladesh's favourable position in the sub-continent.

OPPORTUNITIES OF BANGLADESH’S FOREIGN POLICY

Bangladesh has strong bilateral relations with different countries. In the context of
increasing the importance of Bangladesh at the international level, the national interest
and cooperation in that relationship are gaining importance. Negotiations with the
European Union and France in 2023 included the purchase of Airbus. On the other
hand, among the various discussions with the United States, there was also the issue of
buying Boeing Company aircraft. Last year, we also noticed how vital geopolitics,
economics, and national interest are in diplomatic negotiations, various statements on
foreign policy, and various activities. As a result, we see a continuation of past success
in Bangladesh's diplomacy in 2023. At the same time, it is essential to strengthen
diplomacy in dealing with the complex situation of the present world, give it more
importance and make it a higher priority to face the days ahead.

The world state of affairs is getting more and more complicated. The world
never imagined that such a protracted war would break out between Russia and
Ukraine. No one predicted that the war in Gaza in the context of Hamas's strong
offensive is equally valid that the end of the war is unpredictable. Meanwhile, due to
hostility or rivalry between China and the United States, various summits have been
held between the two countries. It is undoubtedly positive, though also somewhat
surprising. As a result, the world of 2023 has reflected much complexity, and
Bangladesh has dealt with it skillfully. Bangladesh is expected to employ more
diplomacy and foreign policy in 2024 for national interest, prosperity and development.
Besides, the competition between world or regional powers regarding Bangladesh will
continue. Bangladesh's presence in world diplomacy will be maintained, and new
opportunities will be created. New possibilities such as:

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

It is not enough to bring in foreign investment. New investors will be reassured if

existing investors can share their experiences and attitudes with the world. In several
cases, the elements or services with an ideal business environment still need to be
added. As a result, business costs go up, ranging from transportation to logistics to fuel.
Bangladesh must do more to improve the business environment (Ahsan, 2024).
Bangladesh Bank published a survey related to the money brought to Bangladesh by
foreign investment in situations. The last report of this survey was published at the
beginning of December 2023. According to the report, the net FDI inflow in the
financial year 2022–23 was 3.25 billion dollars—however, the previous year. In the
financial year 2021–22, this amount was 3.44 billion dollars.

The calculations show that the net FDI inflow has decreased by 5.52 percent
over the year. Against this picture of net inflows, foreign new investors brought in very
17
little new capital this fiscal year.
Figure 3: Foreign Direct Investment Flows

FDI Inflow (crores)

400
348
350 316 324.9
289 6
300 287
256 256
250 223 233
215
200

150

100

50

0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2023

Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2023

If someone wants to invest here in Bangladesh, he has to consider two factors.

One of them is
● Exchange rate risk,
● Investment risk.

Therefore, capitals move to developed countries with no exchange rate risk. In

this case, one of Bangladesh's foreign policy challenges is attracting foreign investors.

Achieving GSP in the European Union

Bangladesh exports 62 percent of its garments, and 56 percent are destined for
European and UK markets. The loss of substantial commercial facilities threatens
Bangladesh's commercial capacity. Therefore, dealing with the adverse impact on
Bangladesh's trade competitiveness due to the loss of duty-free and quota-free trade
benefits in the global market, especially in the European market, is an essential issue
for Bangladesh.

In 2015, the European Union introduced a preferential trade facility called the
'Special Incentive Arrangement for Sustainable Development' for low-income and
lower-middle-income countries (Uddin, 2021). Bangladesh has to fulfil several
conditions to get GSP Plus benefits. A country must meet the Economic Fragility Index.
That is, the total export value of a country's top seven products must be 75 percent of
the total value of exports under GSP. In the case of Bangladesh, the value of exported
goods under GSP is 95 percent of the total value of exported goods. Therefore,
Bangladesh is eligible for this indicator of GSP plus power.

There is another critical condition. More than 7.4 percent of the GSP benefits
LDCs receive from the EU will not be eligible for GSP Plus. Bangladesh is one of the

18
garment suppliers in the European market. So Bangladesh's share here is currently
around 26 percent. However, changes in this regard will benefit Bangladesh when the
EU makes a new law on GSP Plus. So, Bangladesh needs to talk to the EU now to
change this condition. So, there is no way to sit back. We need to prepare now to face
upcoming situations and potential challenges. We should emphasise the following
points while preparing. Governments and all trade organisations must collect and
analyse the necessary and objective data. By which proper arguments can be presented
on 'Economic Fragility' and 'Import Share' indicators for availing GSP plus benefits.

Along with developing the garment industry, we need to increase the capacity
of backward linkage or backward industries. Currently, 80 percent of the exportable
knitwear products in Bangladesh are produced through 'double transformation'.
Therefore, the Bangladesh government's foreign policy and intelligent diplomacy are
critical to holding the European market; it will require economic capacity and a dollar
problem.

Development of Bilateral Relations with the United States

Dhaka-Washington trade relations are very positive. US investment, in particular, helps

keep Bangladesh's energy sector afloat. Above all, the geopolitical context is critical in
Bangladesh-US relations. Because of this, the topic of the US's 'Indo-Pacific strategy'
comes up repeatedly. US diplomatic and military activities centre on the region, and
US allies are associated with it. As a result, there is a desire to get Bangladesh on the
side of the United States regarding Bangladesh's role in the Indo-Pacific region.

The tension between the two countries was seen over the election of 2024, but
it was removed by the letter of US President Joe Biden. President Joe Biden begins with
the opening phase of the next chapter of the US-Bangladesh partnership in the letter
sent to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. He wrote that I would like to say regional and
global security, economic development, climate change and energy, global health, and
humanitarian assistance, and mainly express the sincere desire of our administration to
work together on many other issues, including the Rohingya refugees. Joe Biden wrote,
‘We have a long and successful history of working together to solve problems, and the
basis of our relationship is the strong relationship between the people of the two
countries.' A mutual willingness to work together on regional and global security,
economic development, climate change and energy, global health, and humanitarian aid
was highlighted, especially for Rohingya refugees (Bangladesh, 2024). In this case,
Bangladesh can develop economic relations with the United States and make strategic
decisions. There will be an opportunity to restore Bangladesh's GSP benefits to the
United States in June 2013, subject to improving the working environment.

Middle East Opportunities and Policy

The Middle East's diplomatic position is on the right track. Just as Bangladesh
condemns Israel's aggression in Gaza and demands an end to the war, Bangladesh will
call for de-escalation of the turbulent environment throughout the Middle East.
Bangladesh is not for anyone but for world peace and brotherhood. That is why
Bangladesh is assumed to keep itself neutral from the incident. The Middle East is one
of the world's biggest oil supplier markets. So, connectivity with the Middle East is
essential to Bangladesh.

19
 Figure 4: Bangladesh Economic Zones

Source: b2bmap.com, 2024

Agreements relating to the development and protection of mutual investments,

Agreements for the Avoidance of Double Taxation, and Prevention of Fiscal Evasion.
One of her intentions is the agreement with Qatar on the Sea Route Transport
Agreement and the Joint Business Council (JBC) between the Federation of Bangladesh
Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) and the Qatar Chamber of Commerce
and Industry (QCCI). Similarly, the Bangladesh government has a challenge and
opportunity to ensure the labour market, clothing, oil and gas with other Middle Eastern
countries.

In December 2021, Saudi Transport and Logistics Services Minister Engineer

Saleh Al Jasher visited Bangladesh. They signed an agreement to establish a Special
Economic Zone (Special et al.) 'Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Industrial Zone in
Bangladesh for Saudi investors. For this purpose, Bangladesh allocated land in
Chittagong. If this special industrial zone is established, many Bangladeshis will be
employed, and Bangladesh will benefit financially by exporting the products produced
here. About 2.8 million expatriates of Bangladesh are engaged in various professions
in Saudi Arabia. The foreign exchange they send is vital to the country's development.
The highest volume of expatriate remittances comes from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian
immigration of pilgrims is being completed in Dhaka. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has
taken the initiative to build large new economic zones and unique cities, where there is
great potential for employment of many more Bangladeshis in the future (Taslim,
2024).

Saudi authorities have published a list of 80 Saudi companies interested in

investing in Bangladesh's various sectors. The country's Public Investment Fund is
interested in participating in Bangladesh's development journey. Saudi Arabia is
interested in collaborating with Bangladesh on energy. Bangladesh's delayed payment
method will create an opportunity to buy crude oil. A joint venture between Bangladesh

20
and Saudi Arabia has studied the feasibility of a urea fertiliser factory.

CONCLUDING REMARKS
As Bangladesh approach a time of significant global transformation, it has the
opportunity to address diverse challenges and opportunities in shaping its foreign
policy. In this pivotal moment of global transformation, with geopolitical dynamics
rapidly evolving and great power rivalries re-emerging, Bangladesh finds itself
uniquely positioned amidst pressing issues such as climate change and the far-reaching
impact of technological advancements. These changes in the international political
system demand Bangladesh's strategic and proactive approach. The study has
underscored the imperative for Bangladesh to navigate these shifts with strategic
foresight, leveraging its geostrategic position, demographic dividend, and economic
potential. By embracing a multifaceted foreign policy framework that prioritises
economic diplomacy, climate diplomacy, and digital diplomacy, championing
sustainable development, and investing in digital infrastructure, Bangladesh can not
only mitigate the risks but also capitalise on the opportunities presented by the changing
global landscape by effectively navigating the complexities of the emerging
international order.

Furthermore, strengthening regional collaborations, particularly within South

Asia and the Bay of Bengal Initiative, will enhance collective resilience and foster
sustainable development. As Bangladesh anticipates and adapts to these future shifts,
its journey will shape its destiny and contribute significantly to the broader narrative of
global engagements in the 21st century. Emphasising the importance of adaptive,
proactive, and inclusive foreign policy strategies, the paper encourages Bangladesh to
re-envision its role on the world stage. The journey ahead is fraught with uncertainties,
yet it holds the promise of transformational change if navigated with wisdom, foresight,
and an unwavering commitment to the principles of peace, progress, and prosperity.

Bangladesh’s strategic location between South and Southeast Asia offers unique
geopolitical and economic leverage. Develop the Port of Chittagong into a regional hub
for maritime trade. Invest in infrastructure to enhance connectivity and access to the
Bay of Bengal, making it an economic gateway for landlocked neighbours. Bangladesh
should seek to balance its relations with major powers. This involves maintaining good
relations with India and China, two of the most influential countries in the region. Both
the China and India factors in Bangladesh’s foreign policy decisions will be
continuously evolving and contributing factors that would perhaps influence
Bangladesh’s policies with other countries as well as strengthen defence and security,
enhance military capabilities and engage in strategic partnerships to maintain
sovereignty and protect national interests in the face of shifting alliances (Lyer, 2024;
Brewster, 2024). Bangladesh can strengthen its cooperative relations with the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Economic motivations are frequently the
driving force behind regionalization. Bangladesh and ASEAN nations have economic
and security interests in trade and investments, connectivity, agriculture, tourism,
communications, and technology transfer (Chakrovorty, 2024). The department has
strengthened alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region by deepening
interoperability, expanding deterrent networks, and executing maritime security and
awareness operations (Biswas, 2024).

21
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