Probability

Probability
Probability
Thinking Conditionally
Independence
Law of Total Probability (LOTP)
Let B1 , B2 , B3 , ...Bn be a partition of the sample space (i.e., they are
disjoint and their union is the entire sample space).

Cheat Sheet
Sheet
Independent Events A and B are independent if knowing whether P (A) = P (A|B1 )P (B1 ) + P (A|B2 )P (B2 ) + · · · + P (A|Bn )P (Bn )

Cheat
Cheat Sheet
A occurred gives no information about whether B occurred. More
formally, A and B (which have nonzero probability) are independent if
and only if one of the following equivalent statements holds:
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B)
P (A|B) = P (A)
P (A) = P (A ∩ B1 ) + P (A ∩ B2 ) + · · · + P (A ∩ Bn )
For LOTP with extra conditioning, just add in another event C!
P (A|C) = P (A|B1 , C)P (B1 |C) + · · · + P (A|Bn , C)P (Bn |C)
P (A|C) = P (A ∩ B1 |C) + P (A ∩ B2 |C) + · · · + P (A ∩ Bn |C)
P (B|A) = P (B)
Special case of LOTP with B and B c as partition:
Conditional Independence A and B are conditionally independent P (A) = P (A|B)P (B) + P (A|B )P (B )
c c
given C if P (A ∩ B|C) = P (A|C)P (B|C). Conditional independence
Counting does not imply independence, and independence does not imply P (A) = P (A ∩ B) + P (A ∩ B )
c

conditional independence.

Multiplication Rule Unions, Intersections, and Complements Bayes’ Rule

De Morgan’s Laws A useful identity that can make calculating
Bayes’ Rule, and with extra conditioning (just add in C!)
C
cak
e probabilities of unions easier by relating them to intersections, and
V vice versa. Analogous results hold with more than two sets.
C waffle
P (B|A)P (A)
S P (A|B) =
ke (A ∪ B) = A ∩ B
c c c
P (B)
ca
V cake
c c c
waffle
(A ∩ B) = A ∪ B P (B|A, C)P (A|C)
wa S P (A|B, C) =
ffle C
cake
P (B|C)
V
S
Joint, Marginal, and Conditional We can also write
waffl
e Joint Probability P (A ∩ B) or P (A, B) – Probability of A and B.
P (A, B, C) P (B, C|A)P (A)
Let’s say we have a compound experiment (an experiment with Marginal (Unconditional) Probability P (A) – Probability of A. P (A|B, C) = =
P (B, C) P (B, C)
multiple components). If the 1st component has n1 possible outcomes, Conditional Probability P (A|B) = P (A, B)/P (B) – Probability of
the 2nd component has n2 possible outcomes, . . . , and the rth A, given that B occurred. Odds Form of Bayes’ Rule
component has nr possible outcomes, then overall there are
Conditional Probability is Probability P (A|B) is a probability P (A|B) P (B|A) P (A)
n1 n2 . . . nr possibilities for the whole experiment. =
function for any fixed B. Any theorem that holds for probability also P (Ac |B) P (B|Ac ) P (Ac )
holds for conditional probability.
Sampling Table The posterior odds of A are the likelihood ratio times the prior odds.
Probability of an Intersection or Union
Intersections via Conditioning
Random Variables and their Distributions
P (A, B) = P (A)P (B|A)
P (A, B, C) = P (A)P (B|A)P (C|A, B)
PMF, CDF, and Independence
Probability Mass Function (PMF) Gives the probability that a
2
Unions via Inclusion-Exclusion discrete random variable takes on the value x.
8
5
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
7 9 pX (x) = P (X = x)
1 4 P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)
3 6
− P (A ∩ B) − P (A ∩ C) − P (B ∩ C)
The sampling table gives the number of possible samples of size k out + P (A ∩ B ∩ C).

1.0
of a population of size n, under various assumptions about how the
sample is collected. Simpson’s Paradox

0.8
0.6
Order Matters Not Matter heart

pmf
n + k − 1
k

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With Replacement n ●
k
n!  n ● ●

0.2
Without Replacement
(n − k)! k
band-aid ● ●

0.0
Naive Definition of Probability 0 1 2 3 4

Dr. Hibbert Dr. Nick x

If all outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event A
happening is: It is possible to have
The PMF satisfies
c c c c
P (A | B, C) < P (A | B , C) and P (A | B, C ) < P (A | B , C ) X
number of outcomes favorable to A pX (x) ≥ 0 and pX (x) = 1
Pnaive (A) = c
number of outcomes yet also P (A | B) > P (A | B ). x
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) Gives the probability Indicator Random Variables LOTUS
that a random variable is less than or equal to x.
Indicator Random Variable is a random variable that takes on the Expected value of a function of an r.v. The expected value of X
FX (x) = P (X ≤ x) value 1 or 0. It is always an indicator of some event: if the event is defined this way:
occurs, the indicator is 1; otherwise it is 0. They are useful for many
problems about counting how many events of some kind occur. Write X
E(X) = xP (X = x) (for discrete X)
x
(
1 if A occurs,
1.0

●
IA =
● ●
0 if A does not occur. Z ∞
E(X) = xf (x)dx (for continuous X)
0.8

2 −∞
● ● Note that IA = IA , IA IB = IA∩B , and IA∪B = IA + IB − IA IB .
The Law of the Unconscious Statistician (LOTUS) states that
0.6

Distribution IA ∼ Bern(p) where p = P (A). you can find the expected value of a function of a random variable,
cdf

g(X), in a similar way, by replacing the x in front of the PMF/PDF by

0.4

Fundamental Bridge The expectation of the indicator for event A is

● ● the probability of event A: E(IA ) = P (A). g(x) but still working with the PMF/PDF of X:
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X
Variance and Standard Deviation E(g(X)) = g(x)P (X = x) (for discrete X)
● ●
0.0

● x
2 2 2
Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) = E(X ) − (E(X))
0 1 2 3 4 Z ∞
E(g(X)) = g(x)f (x)dx (for continuous X)
q
x SD(X) = Var(X) −∞

The CDF is an increasing, right-continuous function with Continuous RVs, LOTUS, UoU What’s a function of a random variable? A function of a random
variable is also a random variable. For example, if X is the number of
FX (x) → 0 as x → −∞ and FX (x) → 1 as x → ∞
bikes you see in an hour, then g(X) = 2X is the number of bike wheels
X(X−1)
you see in that hour and h(X) = X


Independence Intuitively, two random variables are independent if Continuous Random Variables (CRVs) 2 = 2 is the number of
knowing the value of one gives no information about the other. pairs of bikes such that you see both of those bikes in that hour.
Discrete r.v.s X and Y are independent if for all values of x and y What’s the probability that a CRV is in an interval? Take the
difference in CDF values (or use the PDF as described later). What’s the point? You don’t need to know the PMF/PDF of g(X)
P (X = x, Y = y) = P (X = x)P (Y = y) to find its expected value. All you need is the PMF/PDF of X.
P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = P (X ≤ b) − P (X ≤ a) = FX (b) − FX (a)
Expected Value and Indicators
For X ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ), this becomes Universality of Uniform (UoU)
Expected Value and Linearity 
b−µ
 
a−µ
 When you plug any CRV into its own CDF, you get a Uniform(0,1)
P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = Φ −Φ random variable. When you plug a Uniform(0,1) r.v. into an inverse
Expected Value (a.k.a. mean, expectation, or average) is a weighted σ σ
CDF, you get an r.v. with that CDF. For example, let’s say that a
average of the possible outcomes of our random variable.
random variable X has CDF
Mathematically, if x1 , x2 , x3 , . . . are all of the distinct possible values What is the Probability Density Function (PDF)? The PDF f
that X can take, the expected value of X is is the derivative of the CDF F . −x
P F (x) = 1 − e , for x > 0
E(X) = xi P (X = xi ) 0
F (x) = f (x)
i By UoU, if we plug X into this function then we get a uniformly
A PDF is nonnegative and integrates to 1. By the fundamental distributed random variable.
X Y X+Y
3 4 7
theorem of calculus, to get from PDF back to CDF we can integrate: −X
F (X) = 1 − e ∼ Unif(0, 1)
2 2 4 Z x
6 8 14 F (x) = f (t)dt
10 23 33 −∞ Similarly, if U ∼ Unif(0, 1) then F −1 (U ) has CDF F . The key point is
1 –3 –2 that for any continuous random variable X, we can transform it into a
1 0 1 Uniform random variable and back by using its CDF.
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1.0

5 9 14
0.8

4 1 5
Moments and MGFs
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... ... ...

0.6
CDF
PDF

0.4

n n n
0.10

1 1 1
n∑ xi + n∑ yi = n ∑ (xi + yi)
0.2

i=1 i=1 i=1

Moments
0.00

0.0

E(X) + E(Y) = E(X + Y) −4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4

x x Moments describe the shape of a distribution. Let X have mean µ and
Linearity For any r.v.s X and Y , and constants a, b, c, To find the probability that a CRV takes on a value in an interval, standard deviation σ, and Z = (X − µ)/σ be the standardized version
integrate the PDF over that interval.
E(aX + bY + c) = aE(X) + bE(Y ) + c of X. The kth moment of X is µk = E(X k ) and the kth standardized
Z b moment of X is mk = E(Z k ). The mean, variance, skewness, and
Same distribution implies same mean If X and Y have the same F (b) − F (a) = f (x)dx kurtosis are important summaries of the shape of a distribution.
distribution, then E(X) = E(Y ) and, more generally, a
Mean E(X) = µ1
E(g(X)) = E(g(Y )) How do I find the expected value of a CRV? Analogous to the
Conditional Expected Value is defined like expectation, only
discrete case, where you sum x times the PMF, for CRVs you integrate Variance Var(X) = µ2 − µ21
x times the PDF.
conditioned on any event A. Z ∞
Skewness Skew(X) = m3
P E(X) = xf (x)dx
E(X|A) = xP (X = x|A) −∞
x Kurtosis Kurt(X) = m4 − 3
Moment Generating Functions Marginal Distributions Covariance Properties For random variables W, X, Y, Z and
constants a, b:
MGF For any random variable X, the function To find the distribution of one (or more) random variables from a joint
tX PMF/PDF, sum/integrate over the unwanted random variables.
MX (t) = E(e ) Cov(X, Y ) = Cov(Y, X)
is the moment generating function (MGF) of X, if it exists for all Marginal PMF from joint PMF Cov(X + a, Y + b) = Cov(X, Y )
t in some open interval containing 0. The variable t could just as well X
Cov(aX, bY ) = abCov(X, Y )
P (X = x) = P (X = x, Y = y)
have been called u or v. It’s a bookkeeping device that lets us work
y Cov(W + X, Y + Z) = Cov(W, Y ) + Cov(W, Z) + Cov(X, Y )
with the function MX rather than the sequence of moments.
Why is it called the Moment Generating Function? Because Marginal PDF from joint PDF + Cov(X, Z)
Z ∞
the kth derivative of the moment generating function, evaluated at 0,
is the kth moment of X. fX (x) = fX,Y (x, y)dy
−∞ Correlation is location-invariant and scale-invariant For any
k (k)
µk = E(X ) = MX (0) constants a, b, c, d with a and c nonzero,
Independence of Random Variables
This is true by Taylor expansion of etX since Corr(aX + b, cY + d) = Corr(X, Y )
∞ ∞
Random variables X and Y are independent if and only if any of the
k k k
tX
X E(X )t X µk t following conditions holds:
MX (t) = E(e )= =
k=0
k! k=0
k! • Joint CDF is the product of the marginal CDFs Transformations
• Joint PMF/PDF is the product of the marginal PMFs/PDFs
MGF of linear functions If we have Y = aX + b, then • Conditional distribution of Y given X is the marginal
distribution of Y One Variable Transformations Let’s say that we have a random
t(aX+b) bt (at)X bt
MY (t) = E(e ) = e E(e ) = e MX (at) variable X with PDF fX (x), but we are also interested in some
Write X ⊥
⊥ Y to denote that X and Y are independent. function of X. We call this function Y = g(X). Also let y = g(x). If g
Uniqueness If it exists, the MGF uniquely determines the is differentiable and strictly increasing (or strictly decreasing), then
distribution. This means that for any two random variables X and Y , Multivariate LOTUS the PDF of Y is
they are distributed the same (their PMFs/PDFs are equal) if and
LOTUS in more than one dimension is analogous to the 1D LOTUS.
only if their MGFs are equal. dx d −1
For discrete random variables: fY (y) = fX (x)
−1
= fX (g (y)) g (y)
Summing Independent RVs by Multiplying MGFs. If X and Y XX dy dy
are independent, then E(g(X, Y )) = g(x, y)P (X = x, Y = y)
x y
t(X+Y ) tX tY The derivative of the inverse transformation is called the Jacobian.
MX+Y (t) = E(e ) = E(e )E(e ) = MX (t) · MY (t)
For continuous random variables:
The MGF of the sum of two random variables is the product of the Z ∞ Z ∞ Two Variable Transformations Similarly, let’s say we know the
MGFs of those two random variables. E(g(X, Y )) = g(x, y)fX,Y (x, y)dxdy joint PDF of U and V but are also interested in the random vector
−∞ −∞ (X, Y ) defined by (X, Y ) = g(U, V ). Let
Joint PDFs and CDFs
Covariance and Transformations ∂(u, v) ∂u
∂x
∂u
∂y
!
= ∂v ∂v
Joint Distributions ∂(x, y) ∂x ∂y
Covariance and Correlation
The joint CDF of X and Y is
Covariance is the analog of variance for two random variables. be the Jacobian matrix. If the entries in this matrix exist and are
F (x, y) = P (X ≤ x, Y ≤ y) continuous, and the determinant of the matrix is never 0, then
Cov(X, Y ) = E ((X − E(X))(Y − E(Y ))) = E(XY ) − E(X)E(Y )
In the discrete case, X and Y have a joint PMF
Note that ∂(u, v)
pX,Y (x, y) = P (X = x, Y = y). 2 2 fX,Y (x, y) = fU,V (u, v)
Cov(X, X) = E(X ) − (E(X)) = Var(X) ∂(x, y)
In the continuous case, they have a joint PDF
Correlation is a standardized version of covariance that is always
∂2 The inner bars tells us to take the matrix’s determinant, and the outer
between −1 and 1.
fX,Y (x, y) = FX,Y (x, y). bars tell us to take the absolute value. In a 2 × 2 matrix,
∂x∂y Cov(X, Y )
Corr(X, Y ) = p
The joint PMF/PDF must be nonnegative and sum/integrate to 1. Var(X)Var(Y ) a b
= |ad − bc|
c d
Covariance and Independence If two random variables are
independent, then they are uncorrelated. The converse is not
necessarily true (e.g., consider X ∼ N (0, 1) and Y = X 2 ).
X ⊥
⊥ Y −→ Cov(X, Y ) = 0 −→ E(XY ) = E(X)E(Y )
Convolutions
Covariance and Variance The variance of a sum can be found by Convolution Integral If you want to find the PDF of the sum of two
Conditional Distributions independent CRVs X and Y , you can do the following integral:
Var(X + Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ) + 2Cov(X, Y )
Conditioning and Bayes’ rule for discrete r.v.s Z ∞
n
P (X = x, Y = y) P (X = x|Y = y)P (Y = y) X X fX+Y (t) = fX (x)fY (t − x)dx
P (Y = y|X = x) = = Var(X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn ) = Var(Xi ) + 2 Cov(Xi , Xj ) −∞
P (X = x) P (X = x) i=1 i<j
Conditioning and Bayes’ rule for continuous r.v.s If X and Y are independent then they have covariance 0, so Example Let X, Y ∼ N (0, 1) be i.i.d. Then for each fixed t,
fX,Y (x, y) fX|Y (x|y)fY (y)
fY |X (y|x) = = X ⊥
⊥ Y =⇒ Var(X + Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ) ∞ 1 −x2 /2 1
Z
fX (x) fX (x) −(t−x)2 /2
If X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn are identically distributed and have the same fX+Y (t) = √ e √ e dx
Hybrid Bayes’ rule −∞ 2π 2π
covariance relationships (often by symmetry), then
P (A|X = x)fX (x) n By completing the square and using the fact that a Normal PDF
fX (x|A) = Var(X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn ) = nVar(X1 ) + 2 Cov(X1 , X2 )
P (A) 2 integrates to 1, this works out to fX+Y (t) being the N (0, 2) PDF.
Poisson Process • Let T ∼ Expo(1/10) be how long you have to wait until the Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
shuttle comes. Given that you have already waited t minutes,
the expected additional waiting time is 10 more minutes, by the Approximation using CLT
Definition We have a Poisson process of rate λ arrivals per unit memoryless property. That is, E(T |T > t) = t + 10.
time if the following conditions hold: We use ∼ ˙ to denote is approximately distributed. We can use the
Central Limit Theorem to approximate the distribution of a random
1. The number of arrivals in a time interval of length t is Pois(λt). Discrete Y Continuous Y variable Y = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn that is a sum of n i.i.d. random
2
variables Xi . Let E(Y ) = µY and Var(Y ) = σY . The CLT says
2. Numbers of arrivals in disjoint time intervals are independent. P R∞
E(Y ) = y yP (Y = y) E(Y ) = −∞
yfY (y)dy 2
For example, the numbers of arrivals in the time intervals [0, 5], R∞
Y ∼
˙ N (µY , σY )
P
E(Y |A) = y yP (Y = y|A) E(Y |A) = yf (y|A)dy
(5, 12), and [13, 23) are independent with Pois(5λ), Pois(7λ), Pois(10λ) −∞ 2
If the Xi are i.i.d. with mean µX and variance σX , then µY = nµX
distributions, respectively. 2 2
and σY = nσX . For the sample mean X̄n , the CLT says
Conditioning on a Random Variable We can also find E(Y |X),
+

+
+

+
+
1 2
0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 the expected value of Y given the random variable X. This is a X̄n = (X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn ) ∼
˙ N (µX , σX /n)
function of the random variable X. It is not a number except in n
Count-Time Duality Consider a Poisson process of emails arriving certain special cases such as if X ⊥
⊥ Y . To find E(Y |X), find
in an inbox at rate λ emails per hour. Let Tn be the time of arrival of E(Y |X = x) and then plug in X for x. For example: Asymptotic Distributions using CLT
the nth email (relative to some starting time 0) and Nt be the number D
of emails that arrive in [0, t]. Let’s find the distribution of T1 . The • If E(Y |X = x) = x3 + 5x, then E(Y |X) = X 3 + 5X. We use −→ to denote converges in distribution to as n → ∞. The
event T1 > t, the event that you have to wait more than t hours to get CLT says that if we standardize the sum X1 + · · · + Xn then the
the first email, is the same as the event Nt = 0, which is the event that • Let Y be the number of successes in 10 independent Bernoulli distribution of the sum converges to N (0, 1) as n → ∞:
there are no emails in the first t hours. So trials with probability p of success and X be the number of
successes among the first 3 trials. Then E(Y |X) = X + 7p. 1 D
−λt −λt √ (X1 + · · · + Xn − nµX ) −→ N (0, 1)
P (T1 > t) = P (Nt = 0) = e −→ P (T1 ≤ t) = 1 − e σ n
• Let X ∼ N (0, 1) and Y = X 2 . Then E(Y |X = x) = x2 since if
Thus we have T1 ∼ Expo(λ). By the memoryless property and similar we know X = x then we know Y = x2 . And E(X|Y = y) = 0 In other words, the CDF of the left-hand side goes to the standard
√ Normal CDF, Φ. In terms of the sample mean, the CLT says
reasoning, the interarrival times between emails are i.i.d. Expo(λ), i.e., since if we know Y = y then we know X = ± y, with equal
the differences Tn − Tn−1 are i.i.d. Expo(λ). probabilities (by symmetry). So E(Y |X) = X 2 , E(X|Y ) = 0. √
n(X̄n − µX ) D
−→ N (0, 1)
σX
Order Statistics Properties of Conditional Expectation

1. E(Y |X) = E(Y ) if X ⊥

⊥Y Markov Chains
Definition Let’s say you have n i.i.d. r.v.s X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn . If you
arrange them from smallest to largest, the ith element in that list is 2. E(h(X)W |X) = h(X)E(W |X) (taking out what’s known)
the ith order statistic, denoted X(i) . So X(1) is the smallest in the list In particular, E(h(X)|X) = h(X). Definition
and X(n) is the largest in the list.
3. E(E(Y |X)) = E(Y ) (Adam’s Law, a.k.a. Law of Total 5/12 7/12 7/8
Note that the order statistics are dependent, e.g., learning X(4) = 42 Expectation) 1 1/2 1/3 1/4
1 2 3 4 5
gives us the information that X(1) , X(2) , X(3) are ≤ 42 and 1/2 1/4 1/6 1/8
X(5) , X(6) , . . . , X(n) are ≥ 42. Adam’s Law (a.k.a. Law of Total Expectation) can also be
Distribution Taking n i.i.d. random variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn with written in a way that looks analogous to LOTP. For any events A Markov chain is a random walk in a state space, which we will
CDF F (x) and PDF f (x), the CDF and PDF of X(i) are: A1 , A2 , . . . , An that partition the sample space, assume is finite, say {1, 2, . . . , M }. We let Xt denote which element of
the state space the walk is visiting at time t. The Markov chain is the
Xn  
n E(Y ) = E(Y |A1 )P (A1 ) + · · · + E(Y |An )P (An ) sequence of random variables tracking where the walk is at all points
k n−k
FX(i) (x) = P (X(i) ≤ x) = F (x) (1 − F (x)) in time, X0 , X1 , X2 , . . . . By definition, a Markov chain must satisfy
k=i
k For the special case where the partition is A, Ac , this says the Markov property, which says that if you want to predict where
the chain will be at a future time, if we know the present state then
n − 1  c c
fX(i) (x) = n F (x)
i−1
(1 − F (x))
n−i
f (x) E(Y ) = E(Y |A)P (A) + E(Y |A )P (A ) the entire past history is irrelevant. Given the present, the past and
i−1 future are conditionally independent. In symbols,
Uniform Order Statistics The jth order statistic of Eve’s Law (a.k.a. Law of Total Variance) P (Xn+1 = j|X0 = i0 , X1 = i1 , . . . , Xn = i) = P (Xn+1 = j|Xn = i)
i.i.d. U1 , . . . , Un ∼ Unif(0, 1) is U(j) ∼ Beta(j, n − j + 1).
Var(Y ) = E(Var(Y |X)) + Var(E(Y |X))
State Properties
Conditional Expectation A state is either recurrent or transient.
MVN, LLN, CLT • If you start at a recurrent state, then you will always return
Conditioning on an Event We can find E(Y |A), the expected value back to that state at some point in the future. ♪You can
of Y given that event A occurred. A very important case is when A is check-out any time you like, but you can never leave. ♪
the event X = x. Note that E(Y |A) is a number. For example: Law of Large Numbers (LLN) • Otherwise you are at a transient state. There is some positive
• The expected value of a fair die roll, given that it is prime, is Let X1 , X2 , X3 . . . be i.i.d. with mean µ. The sample mean is probability that once you leave you will never return. ♪You
1 1 1 10 don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here. ♪
3 ·2+ 3 ·3+ 3 ·5 = 3 .
X1 + X2 + X3 + · · · + Xn A state is either periodic or aperiodic.
• Let Y be the number of successes in 10 independent Bernoulli X̄n =
trials with probability p of success. Let A be the event that the n • If you start at a periodic state of period k, then the GCD of
first 3 trials are all successes. Then the possible numbers of steps it would take to return back is
The Law of Large Numbers states that as n → ∞, X̄n → µ with k > 1.
E(Y |A) = 3 + 7p probability 1. For example, in flips of a coin with probability p of
Heads, let Xj be the indicator of the jth flip being Heads. Then LLN • Otherwise you are at an aperiodic state. The GCD of the
since the number of successes among the last 7 trials is Bin(7, p). says the proportion of Heads converges to p (with probability 1). possible numbers of steps it would take to return back is 1.
Transition Matrix Continuous Distributions Gamma Distribution
Let the state space be {1, 2, . . . , M }. The transition matrix Q is the Gamma(3, 1) Gamma(3, 0.5)

M × M matrix where element qij is the probability that the chain goes Uniform Distribution
from state i to state j in one step:

0.10
0.2
Let us say that U is distributed Unif(a, b). We know the following:

PDF

PDF
qij = P (Xn+1 = j|Xn = i) Properties of the Uniform For a Uniform distribution, the

0.05
0.1
probability of a draw from any interval within the support is
To find the probability that the chain goes from state i to state j in proportional to the length of the interval. See Universality of Uniform

0.00
0.0
exactly m steps, take the (i, j) element of Qm . and Order Statistics for other properties. 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
x x

Example William throws darts really badly, so his darts are uniform Gamma(10, 1) Gamma(5, 0.5)
(m)
qij = P (Xn+m = j|Xn = i) over the whole room because they’re equally likely to appear anywhere.

0.10
William’s darts have a Uniform distribution on the surface of the

0.10
If X0 is distributed according to the row vector PMF p
~, i.e., room. The Uniform is the only distribution where the probability of
~Qn .

0.05
hitting in any specific region is proportional to the length/area/volume

PDF

PDF
pj = P (X0 = j), then the PMF of Xn is p

0.05
of that region, and where the density of occurrence in any one specific
spot is constant throughout the whole support.
Chain Properties

0.00

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20

A chain is irreducible if you can get from anywhere to anywhere. If a Normal Distribution x x

chain (on a finite state space) is irreducible, then all of its states are Let us say that X is distributed Gamma(a, λ). We know the following:
Let us say that X is distributed N (µ, σ 2 ). We know the following:
recurrent. A chain is periodic if any of its states are periodic, and is
aperiodic if none of its states are periodic. In an irreducible chain, all Central Limit Theorem The Normal distribution is ubiquitous Story You sit waiting for shooting stars, where the waiting time for a
states have the same period. because of the Central Limit Theorem, which states that the sample star is distributed Expo(λ). You want to see n shooting stars before
mean of i.i.d. r.v.s will approach a Normal distribution as the sample you go home. The total waiting time for the nth shooting star is
A chain is reversible with respect to ~ s if si qij = sj qji for all i, j. size grows, regardless of the initial distribution. Gamma(n, λ).
Examples of reversible chains include any chain with qij = qji , with Location-Scale Transformation Every time we shift a Normal Example You are at a bank, and there are 3 people ahead of you.
1 1 1
s = ( M , M , . . . , M ), and random walk on an undirected network.
~ r.v. (by adding a constant) or rescale a Normal (by multiplying by a The serving time for each person is Exponential with mean 2 minutes.
constant), we change it to another Normal r.v. For any Normal Only one person at a time can be served. The distribution of your
Stationary Distribution X ∼ N (µ, σ 2 ), we can transform it to the standard N (0, 1) by the waiting time until it’s your turn to be served is Gamma(3, 12 ).
following transformation:
Let us say that the vector ~s = (s1 , s2 , . . . , sM ) be a PMF (written as a X−µ Beta Distribution
row vector). We will call ~
s the stationary distribution for the chain Z= ∼ N (0, 1)
σ
if ~
sQ = ~s. As a consequence, if Xt has the stationary distribution, Beta(0.5, 0.5) Beta(2, 1)

2.0
Standard Normal The Standard Normal, Z ∼ N (0, 1), has mean 0

5
then all future Xt+1 , Xt+2 , . . . also have the stationary distribution.
and variance 1. Its CDF is denoted by Φ.

1.5
For irreducible, aperiodic chains, the stationary distribution exists, is

3
PDF

PDF
unique, and si is the long-run probability of a chain being at state i.

1.0
Exponential Distribution

2
The expected number of steps to return to i starting from i is 1/si .

0.5
1
Let us say that X is distributed Expo(λ). We know the following:
To find the stationary distribution, you can solve the matrix equation

0.0
0
(Q0 − I)~
s 0 = 0. The stationary distribution is uniform if the columns Story You’re sitting on an open meadow right before the break of 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
x x

of Q sum to 1. dawn, wishing that airplanes in the night sky were shooting stars,
because you could really use a wish right now. You know that shooting Beta(2, 8) Beta(5, 5)

2.5
Reversibility Condition Implies Stationarity If you have a PMF ~ s stars come on average every 15 minutes, but a shooting star is not

2.0
and a Markov chain with transition matrix Q, then si qij = sj qji for “due” to come just because you’ve waited so long. Your waiting time

1.5
all states i, j implies that ~
s is stationary. is memoryless; the additional time until the next shooting star comes

2
PDF

PDF
1.0
does not depend on how long you’ve waited already.

0.5
Random Walk on an Undirected Network Example The waiting time until the next shooting star is distributed

0.0
Expo(4) hours. Here λ = 4 is the rate parameter, since shooting

0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

1
stars arrive at a rate of 1 per 1/4 hour on average. The expected time x x

until the next shooting star is 1/λ = 1/4 hour.

2
Expos as a rescaled Expo(1) Conjugate Prior of the Binomial In the Bayesian approach to
Y ∼ Expo(λ) → X = λY ∼ Expo(1) statistics, parameters are viewed as random variables, to reflect our
3 uncertainty. The prior for a parameter is its distribution before
Memorylessness The Exponential Distribution is the only observing data. The posterior is the distribution for the parameter
4
continuous memoryless distribution. The memoryless property says after observing data. Beta is the conjugate prior of the Binomial
that for X ∼ Expo(λ) and any positive numbers s and t, because if you have a Beta-distributed prior on p in a Binomial, then
P (X > s + t|X > s) = P (X > t) the posterior distribution on p given the Binomial data is also
5
Beta-distributed. Consider the following two-level model:
Equivalently,
X − a|(X > a) ∼ Expo(λ) X|p ∼ Bin(n, p)
If you have a collection of nodes, pairs of which can be connected by For example, a product with an Expo(λ) lifetime is always “as good as p ∼ Beta(a, b)
undirected edges, and a Markov chain is run by going from the new” (it doesn’t experience wear and tear). Given that the product has
current node to a uniformly random node that is connected to it by an survived a years, the additional time that it will last is still Expo(λ). Then after observing X = x, we get the posterior distribution
edge, then this is a random walk on an undirected network. The Min of Expos If we have independent Xi ∼ Expo(λi ), then
stationary distribution of this chain is proportional to the degree p|(X = x) ∼ Beta(a + x, b + n − x)
min(X1 , . . . , Xk ) ∼ Expo(λ1 + λ2 + · · · + λk ).
sequence (this is the sequence of degrees, where the degree of a node
Max of Expos If we have i.i.d. Xi ∼ Expo(λ), then Order statistics of the Uniform See Order Statistics.
is how many edges are attached to it). For example, the stationary
distribution of random walk on the network shown above is max(X1 , . . . , Xk ) has the same distribution as Y1 + Y2 + · · · + Yk , Beta-Gamma relationship If X ∼ Gamma(a, λ),
3
proportional to (3, 3, 2, 4, 2), so it’s ( 14 3
, 14 3
, 14 4
, 14 2
, 14 ). where Yj ∼ Expo(jλ) and the Yj are independent. Y ∼ Gamma(b, λ), with X ⊥
⊥ Y then
 • X
X+Y ∼ Beta(a, b) • Conditional X|(X + Y = r) ∼ HGeom(n, m, r) Properties Let X ∼ Pois(λ1 ) and Y ∼ Pois(λ2 ), with X ⊥
⊥ Y.

• X+Y ⊥
⊥ X • Binomial-Poisson Relationship Bin(n, p) is approximately 1. Sum X + Y ∼ Pois(λ1 + λ2 )
X+Y
Pois(λ) if p is small.  
λ1
This is known as the bank–post office result. 2. Conditional X|(X + Y = n) ∼ Bin n,
• Binomial-Normal Relationship Bin(n, p) is approximately λ1 +λ2
N (np, np(1 − p)) if n is large and p is not near 0 or 1. 3. Chicken-egg If there are Z ∼ Pois(λ) items and we randomly
χ2 (Chi-Square) Distribution and independently “accept” each item with probability p, then
Let us say that X is distributed χ2n . We know the following: Geometric Distribution the number of accepted items Z1 ∼ Pois(λp), and the number of
rejected items Z2 ∼ Pois(λ(1 − p)), and Z1 ⊥
⊥ Z2 .
Story A Chi-Square(n) is the sum of the squares of n independent Let us say that X is distributed Geom(p). We know the following:
standard Normal r.v.s. Story X is the number of “failures” that we will achieve before we
Properties and Representations achieve our first success. Our successes have probability p. Multivariate Distributions
1
2 2 2 Example If each pokeball we throw has probability to catch Mew,
10
X is distributed as Z1 + Z2 + · · · + Zn for i.i.d. Zi ∼ N (0, 1) 1 Multinomial Distribution
the number of failed pokeballs will be distributed Geom( 10 ).
X ∼ Gamma(n/2, 1/2) Let us say that the vector X ~ = (X1 , X2 , X3 , . . . , Xk ) ∼ Multk (n, p
~)
First Success Distribution where p
~ = (p1 , p2 , . . . , pk ).
Discrete Distributions Equivalent to the Geometric distribution, except that it includes the Story We have n items, which can fall into any one of the k buckets
first success in the count. This is 1 more than the number of failures. independently with the probabilities p ~ = (p1 , p2 , . . . , pk ).
If X ∼ FS(p) then E(X) = 1/p.
Distributions for four sampling schemes Example Let us assume that every year, 100 students in the Harry
Negative Binomial Distribution Potter Universe are randomly and independently sorted into one of
Replace No Replace four houses with equal probability. The number of people in each of the
Let us say that X is distributed NBin(r, p). We know the following: houses is distributed Mult4 (100, p
~), where p
~ = (0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25).
Fixed # trials (n) Binomial HGeom
(Bern if n = 1) Story X is the number of “failures” that we will have before we Note that X1 + X2 + · · · + X4 = 100, and they are dependent.
Draw until r success NBin NHGeom achieve our rth success. Our successes have probability p. Joint PMF For n = n1 + n2 + · · · + nk ,
(Geom if r = 1) Example Thundershock has 60% accuracy and can faint a wild n! n n n
~ =~
P (X n) = p 1 p 2 . . . pk k
Raticate in 3 hits. The number of misses before Pikachu faints n1 !n2 ! . . . nk ! 1 2
Raticate with Thundershock is distributed NBin(3, 0.6).
Bernoulli Distribution Marginal PMF, Lumping, and Conditionals Marginally,
The Bernoulli distribution is the simplest case of the Binomial Hypergeometric Distribution Xi ∼ Bin(n, pi ) since we can define “success” to mean category i. If
distribution, where we only have one trial (n = 1). Let us say that X is you lump together multiple categories in a Multinomial, then it is still
Let us say that X is distributed HGeom(w, b, n). We know the Multinomial. For example, Xi + Xj ∼ Bin(n, pi + pj ) for i 6= j since
distributed Bern(p). We know the following: following: we can define “success” to mean being in category i or j. Similarly, if
Story A trial is performed with probability p of “success”, and X is Story In a population of w desired objects and b undesired objects, k = 6 and we lump categories 1-2 and lump categories 3-5, then
the indicator of success: 1 means success, 0 means failure. X is the number of “successes” we will have in a draw of n objects, (X1 + X2 , X3 + X4 + X5 , X6 ) ∼ Mult3 (n, (p1 + p2 , p3 + p4 + p5 , p6 ))
Example Let X be the indicator of Heads for a fair coin toss. Then without replacement. The draw of n objects is assumed to be a
Conditioning on some Xj also still gives a Multinomial:
X ∼ Bern( 21 ). Also, 1 − X ∼ Bern( 21 ) is the indicator of Tails. simple random sample (all sets of n objects are equally likely).
  
Examples Here are some HGeom examples. p1 pk−1
Binomial Distribution X1 , . . . , Xk−1 |Xk = nk ∼ Multk−1 n − nk , ,...,
1 − pk 1 − pk
• Let’s say that we have only b Weedles (failure) and w Pikachus
Bin(10,1/2) (success) in Viridian Forest. We encounter n Pokemon in the Variances and Covariances We have Xi ∼ Bin(n, pi ) marginally, so
forest, and X is the number of Pikachus in our encounters. Var(Xi ) = npi (1 − pi ). Also, Cov(Xi , Xj ) = −npi pj for i 6= j.
0.30

• The number of Aces in a 5 card hand.

0.25

●
Multivariate Uniform Distribution
0.20

• You have w white balls and b black balls, and you draw n balls.
● ●

See the univariate Uniform for stories and examples. For the 2D
0.15
pmf

You will draw X white balls. Uniform on some region, probability is proportional to area. Every
● ●
0.10

• You have w white balls and b black balls, and you draw n balls point in the support has equal density, of value area of1 region . For the
0.05

● ●
without replacement. The number of white balls in your sample 3D Uniform, probability is proportional to volume.
is HGeom(w, b, n); the number of black balls is HGeom(b, w, n).
0.00

● ●
● ●

0 2 4 6 8 10
• Capture-recapture A forest has N elk, you capture n of them, Multivariate Normal (MVN) Distribution
x
tag them, and release them. Then you recapture a new sample ~ = (X1 , X2 , . . . , Xk ) is Multivariate Normal if every linear
A vector X
Let us say that X is distributed Bin(n, p). We know the following: of size m. How many tagged elk are now in the new sample? combination is Normally distributed, i.e., t1 X1 + t2 X2 + · · · + tk Xk is
Story X is the number of “successes” that we will achieve in n HGeom(n, N − n, m) Normal for any constants t1 , t2 , . . . , tk . The parameters of the
independent trials, where each trial is either a success or a failure, each Multivariate Normal are the mean vector µ ~ = (µ1 , µ2 , . . . , µk ) and
with the same probability p of success. We can also write X as a sum Poisson Distribution the covariance matrix where the (i, j) entry is Cov(Xi , Xj ).
of multiple independent Bern(p) random variables. Let X ∼ Bin(n, p)
and Xj ∼ Bern(p), where all of the Bernoullis are independent. Then Let us say that X is distributed Pois(λ). We know the following: Properties The Multivariate Normal has the following properties.
Story There are rare events (low probability events) that occur many • Any subvector is also MVN.
X = X1 + X2 + X3 + · · · + Xn different ways (high possibilities of occurences) at an average rate of λ
occurrences per unit space or time. The number of events that occur • If any two elements within an MVN are uncorrelated, then they
Example If Jeremy Lin makes 10 free throws and each one in that unit of space or time is X. are independent.
independently has a 43 chance of getting in, then the number of free • The joint PDF of a Bivariate Normal (X, Y ) with N (0, 1)
throws he makes is distributed Bin(10, 34 ). Example A certain busy intersection has an average of 2 accidents
marginal distributions and correlation ρ ∈ (−1, 1) is
per month. Since an accident is a low probability event that can
Properties Let X ∼ Bin(n, p), Y ∼ Bin(m, p) with X ⊥
⊥ Y.
 
happen many different ways, it is reasonable to model the number of 1 1 2 2
fX,Y (x, y) = exp − 2 (x + y − 2ρxy) ,
accidents in a month at that intersection as Pois(2). Then the number 2πτ 2τ
• Redefine success n − X ∼ Bin(n, 1 − p)
of accidents that happen in two months at that intersection is p
• Sum X + Y ∼ Bin(n + m, p) distributed Pois(4). with τ = 1 − ρ2 .
Distribution Properties Euler’s Approximation for Harmonic Sums Linearity and First Success
This problem is commonly known as the coupon collector problem.
1 1 1 There are n coupon types. At each draw, you get a uniformly random
Important CDFs 1+ + + ··· + ≈ log n + 0.577 . . .
2 3 n coupon type. What is the expected number of coupons needed until
Standard Normal Φ you have a complete set? Answer: Let N be the number of coupons
Exponential(λ) F (x) = 1 − e−λx , for x ∈ (0, ∞) Stirling’s Approximation for Factorials needed; we want E(N ). Let N = N1 + · · · + Nn , where N1 is the
draws to get our first new coupon, N2 is the additional draws needed
Uniform(0,1) F (x) = x, for x ∈ (0, 1)
to draw our second new coupon and so on. By the story of the First
√
 n
n Success, N2 ∼ FS((n − 1)/n) (after collecting first coupon type, there’s
Convolutions of Random Variables n! ≈ 2πn
e (n − 1)/n chance you’ll get something new). Similarly,
A convolution of n random variables is simply their sum. For the N3 ∼ FS((n − 2)/n), and Nj ∼ FS((n − j + 1)/n). By linearity,
following results, let X and Y be independent.
1. X ∼ Pois(λ1 ), Y ∼ Pois(λ2 ) −→ X + Y ∼ Pois(λ1 + λ2 )
Miscellaneous Definitions n n n X1 n
E(N ) = E(N1 ) + · · · + E(Nn ) = + + ··· + = n
n n−1 1 j
2. X ∼ Bin(n1 , p), Y ∼ Bin(n2 , p) −→ X + Y ∼ Bin(n1 + n2 , p). j=1
Bin(n, p) can be thought of as a sum of i.i.d. Bern(p) r.v.s. Medians and Quantiles Let X have CDF F . Then X has median This is approximately n(log(n) + 0.577) by Euler’s approximation.
3. X ∼ Gamma(a1 , λ), Y ∼ Gamma(a2 , λ) m if F (m) ≥ 0.5 and P (X ≥ m) ≥ 0.5. For X continuous, m satisfies
−→ X + Y ∼ Gamma(a1 + a2 , λ). Gamma(n, λ) with n an F (m) = 1/2. In general, the ath quantile of X is min{x : F (x) ≥ a}; Orderings of i.i.d. random variables
integer can be thought of as a sum of i.i.d. Expo(λ) r.v.s. the median is the case a = 1/2.
I call 2 UberX’s and 3 Lyfts at the same time. If the time it takes for
4. X ∼ NBin(r1 , p), Y ∼ NBin(r2 , p) log Statisticians generally use log to refer to natural log (i.e., base e). the rides to reach me are i.i.d., what is the probability that all the
−→ X + Y ∼ NBin(r1 + r2 , p). NBin(r, p) can be thought of as Lyfts will arrive first? Answer: Since the arrival times of the five cars
a sum of i.i.d. Geom(p) r.v.s. i.i.d r.v.s Independent, identically-distributed random variables. are i.i.d., all 5! orderings of the arrivals are equally likely. There are
5. X ∼ N (µ1 , σ12 ), Y ∼ N (µ2 , σ22 ) 3!2! orderings that involve the Lyfts arriving first, so the probability
−→ X + Y ∼ N (µ1 + µ2 , σ12 + σ22 ) 3!2!
Example Problems = 1/10 . Alternatively, there are 53


that the Lyfts arrive first is
5!
Special Cases of Distributions ways to choose 3 of the 5 slots for the Lyfts to occupy, where each of
1. Bin(1, p) ∼ Bern(p) the choices are equally likely. One of these choices has all 3 of the
2. Beta(1, 1) ∼ Unif(0, 1) 5
Lyfts arriving first, so the probability is 1/ = 1/10 .
3. Gamma(1, λ) ∼ Expo(λ) 3
Calculating Probability
4. χ2n ∼ Gamma n 1


2, 2 Expectation of Negative Hypergeometric
5. NBin(1, p) ∼ Geom(p) A textbook has n typos, which are randomly scattered amongst its n
pages, independently. You pick a random page. What is the
What is the expected number of cards that you draw before you pick
probability that it has no typos? Answer: There is a 1 − n 1 your first Ace in a shuffled deck (not counting the Ace)? Answer:
Inequalities Consider a non-Ace. Denote this to be card j. Let Ij be the indicator
probability that any specific typo isn’t on your page, and thus a
that card j will be drawn before the first Ace. Note that Ij = 1 says
p
1. Cauchy-Schwarz |E(XY )| ≤ E(X 2 )E(Y 2 )
1 n
 
1− probability that there are no typos on your page. For n that j is before all 4 of the Aces in the deck. The probability that this
E|X|
2. Markov P (X ≥ a) ≤ a for a > 0 n occurs is 1/5 by symmetry. Let X be the number of cards drawn
before the first Ace. Then X = I1 + I2 + ... + I48 , where each indicator
3. Chebyshev P (|X − µ| ≥ a) ≤ σ2
for E(X) = µ, Var(X) = σ 2 large, this is approximately e−1 = 1/e.
a2 corresponds to one of the 48 non-Aces. Thus,
4. Jensen E(g(X)) ≥ g(E(X)) for g convex; reverse if g is E(X) = E(I1 ) + E(I2 ) + ... + E(I48 ) = 48/5 = 9.6 .
concave Linearity and Indicators (1)
Minimum and Maximum of RVs
Formulas In a group of n people, what is the expected number of distinct
birthdays (month and day)? What is the expected number of birthday What is the CDF of the maximum of n independent Unif(0,1) random
matches? Answer: Let X be the number of distinct birthdays and Ij variables? Answer: Note that for r.v.s X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ,
Geometric Series be the indicator for the jth day being represented. P (min(X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ) ≥ a) = P (X1 ≥ a, X2 ≥ a, . . . , Xn ≥ a)
n−1 n n
Similarly,
2 n−1
X k 1−r E(Ij ) = 1 − P (no one born on day j) = 1 − (364/365)
1 + r + r + ··· + r = r = P (max(X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ) ≤ a) = P (X1 ≤ a, X2 ≤ a, . . . , Xn ≤ a)
k=0
1−r
n We will use this principle to find the CDF of U(n) , where
2 1 By linearity, E(X) = 365 (1 − (364/365) ) . Now let Y be the U(n) = max(U1 , U2 , . . . , Un ) and Ui ∼ Unif(0, 1) are i.i.d.
1 + r + r + ··· = if |r| < 1
1−r number of birthday matches and Ji be the indicator that the ith pair P (max(U1 , U2 , . . . , Un ) ≤ a) = P (U1 ≤ a, U2 ≤ a, . . . , Un ≤ a)
of people have the same birthday. The probability that any two
Exponential Function (ex ) n = P (U1 ≤ a)P (U2 ≤ a) . . . P (Un ≤ a)
∞ specific people share a birthday is 1/365, so E(Y ) = /365 .
xn x2 x3 x n
 
x
X 2 = a
n
e = =1+x+ + + · · · = lim 1+
n! 2! 3! n→∞ n
n=0 for 0 < a < 1 (and the CDF is 0 for a ≤ 0 and 1 for a ≥ 1).
Gamma and Beta Integrals Linearity and Indicators (2)
Pattern-matching with ex Taylor series
You can sometimes solve complicated-looking integrals by This problem is commonly known as the hat-matching problem. 
1

pattern-matching to a gamma or beta integral: There are n people at a party, each with hat. At the end of the party, For X ∼ Pois(λ), find E . Answer: By LOTUS,
Z ∞ Z 1 they each leave with a random hat. What is the expected number of X+1
t−1 −x a−1 b−1 Γ(a)Γ(b)
x e dx = Γ(t) x (1 − x) dx = people who leave with the right hat? Answer: Each hat has a 1/n ∞ ∞
1 e−λ λk e−λ X λk+1 e−λ λ
 
Γ(a + b) chance of going to the right person. By linearity, the average number 1 X
0 0 E = = = (e − 1)
X+1 k+1 k! λ k=0 (k + 1)! λ
Also, Γ(a + 1) = aΓ(a), and Γ(n) = (n − 1)! if n is a positive integer. of hats that go to their owners is n(1/n) = 1 . k=0
Adam’s Law and Eve’s Law 4. Calculating expectation. If it has a named distribution,
check out the table of distributions. If it’s a function of an r.v.
William really likes speedsolving Rubik’s Cubes. But he’s pretty bad with a named distribution, try LOTUS. If it’s a count of
at it, so sometimes he fails. On any given day, William will attempt something, try breaking it up into indicator r.v.s. If you can
N ∼ Geom(s) Rubik’s Cubes. Suppose each time, he has probability p condition on something natural, consider using Adam’s law.
of solving the cube, independently. Let T be the number of Rubik’s
Cubes he solves during a day. Find the mean and variance of T . 5. Calculating variance. Consider independence, named
Answer: Note that T |N ∼ Bin(N, p). So by Adam’s Law, Robber distributions, and LOTUS. If it’s a count of something, break it
up into a sum of indicator r.v.s. If it’s a sum, use properties of
p(1 − s) covariance. If you can condition on something natural, consider
E(T ) = E(E(T |N )) = E(N p) = using Eve’s Law.
s
6. Calculating E(X 2 ). Do you already know E(X) or Var(X)?
Similarly, by Eve’s Law, we have that Recall that Var(X) = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2 . Otherwise try
LOTUS.
Var(T ) = E(Var(T |N )) + Var(E(T |N )) = E(N p(1 − p)) + Var(N p)
7. Calculating covariance. Use the properties of covariance. If
(a) Is this Markov chain irreducible? Is it aperiodic? Answer:
p(1 − p)(1 − s) p2 (1 − s) p(1 − s)(p + s(1 − p)) you’re trying to find the covariance between two components of
= + = Yes to both. The Markov chain is irreducible because it can a Multinomial distribution, Xi , Xj , then the covariance is
s s2 s2 −npi pj for i 6= j.
get from anywhere to anywhere else. The Markov chain is
aperiodic because the robber can return back to a square in
8. Symmetry. If X1 , . . . , Xn are i.i.d., consider using symmetry.
MGF – Finding Moments 2, 3, 4, 5, . . . moves, and the GCD of those numbers is 1.
3 (b) What is the stationary distribution of this Markov chain? 9. Calculating probabilities of orderings. Remember that all
Find E(X ) for X ∼ Expo(λ) using the MGF of X. Answer: The n! ordering of i.i.d. continuous random variables X1 , . . . , Xn
λ Answer: Since this is a random walk on an undirected graph,
MGF of an Expo(λ) is M (t) = λ−t . To get the third moment, we can are equally likely.
the stationary distribution is proportional to the degree
take the third derivative of the MGF and evaluate at t = 0: sequence. The degree for the corner pieces is 3, the degree for 10. Determining independence. There are several equivalent
the edge pieces is 4, and the degree for the center pieces is 6. definitions. Think about simple and extreme cases to see if you
3 6 To normalize this degree sequence, we divide by its sum. The
E(X ) = 3 can find a counterexample.
λ sum of the degrees is 6(3) + 6(4) + 7(6) = 84. Thus the
stationary probability of being on a corner is 3/84 = 1/28, on 11. Do a painful integral. If your integral looks painful, see if
But a much nicer way to use the MGF here is via pattern recognition: an edge is 4/84 = 1/21, and in the center is 6/84 = 1/14. you can write your integral in terms of a known PDF (like
note that M (t) looks like it came from a geometric series: Gamma or Beta), and use the fact that PDFs integrate to 1?
(c) What fraction of the time will the robber be in the center tile
∞  n ∞ 12. Before moving on. Check some simple and extreme cases,
1 X t X n! tn in this game, in the long run? Answer: By the above, 1/14 .
check whether the answer seems plausible, check for biohazards.
t
= =
1− λ λ λn n!
n=0 n=0 (d) What is the expected amount of moves it will take for the
n robber to return to the center tile? Answer: Since this chain is
The coefficient of tn! here is the nth moment of X, so we have irreducible and aperiodic, to get the expected time to return we
E(X n ) = λn!
n for all nonnegative integers n. can just invert the stationary probability. Thus on average it
will take 14 turns for the robber to return to the center tile.
Markov chains (1)
Suppose Xn is a two-state Markov chain with transition matrix Problem-Solving Strategies
0 1
 
0 1−α α 1. Getting started. Start by defining relevant events and
Q=
1 β 1−β random variables. (“Let A be the event that I pick the fair
coin”; “Let X be the number of successes.”) Clear notion is
Find the stationary distribution ~
s = (s0 , s1 ) of Xn by solving ~
sQ = ~
s, important for clear thinking! Then decide what it is that you’re P (B|A)P (A)
and show that the chain is reversible with respect to ~ s. Answer: The supposed to be finding, in terms of your notation (“I want to P (B)
, it is not
equation ~
sQ = ~s says that find P (X = 3|A)”). Think about what type of object your correct to say “P (B) = 1 because we know B happened”; P (B)
answer should be (a number? A random variable? A PMF? A is the prior probability of B. Don’t confuse P (A|B) with
s0 = s0 (1 − α) + s1 β and s1 = s0 (α) + s0 (1 − β) PDF?) and what it should be in terms of. P (A, B).
By solving this system of linear equations, we have Try simple and extreme cases. To make an abstract experiment 3. Don’t assume independence without justification. In the
more concrete, try drawing a picture or making up numbers matching problem, the probability that card 1 is a match and

β α
 that could have happened. Pattern recognition: does the card 2 is a match is not 1/n2 . Binomial and Hypergeometric
~
s= , structure of the problem resemble something we’ve seen before? are often confused; the trials are independent in the Binomial
α+β α+β
2. Calculating probability of an event. Use counting story and dependent in the Hypergeometric story.
principles if the naive definition of probability applies. Is the
To show that the chain is reversible with respect to ~ s, we must show 4. Don’t forget to do sanity checks. Probabilities must be
probability of the complement easier to find? Look for
si qij = sj qji for all i, j. This is done if we can show s0 q01 = s1 q10 . between 0 and 1. Variances must be ≥ 0. Supports must make
symmetries. Look for something to condition on, then apply
And indeed, sense. PMFs must sum to 1. PDFs must integrate to 1.
αβ Bayes’ Rule or the Law of Total Probability.
s0 q01 = = s1 q10 3. Finding the distribution of a random variable. First make 5. Don’t confuse random variables, numbers, and events.
α+β Let X be an r.v. Then g(X) is an r.v. for any function g. In
sure you need the full distribution not just the mean (see next
item). Check the support of the random variable: what values particular, X 2 , |X|, F (X), and IX>3 are r.v.s.
Markov chains (2) can it take on? Use this to rule out distributions that don’t fit. P (X 2 < X|X ≥ 0), E(X), Var(X), and g(E(X)) are numbers.
William and Sebastian play a modified game of Settlers of Catan, Is there a story for one of the named distributions that fits the X = 2R and F (X) ≥ −1 are events. It does not make sense to
∞
where every turn they randomly move the robber (which starts on the problem at hand? Can you write the random variable as a write −∞ F (X)dx, because F (X) is a random variable. It does
center tile) to one of the adjacent hexagons. function of an r.v. with a known distribution, say Y = g(X)? not make sense to write P (X), because X is not an event.
Table of Distributions

Distribution PMF/PDF and Support Expected Value Variance MGF

Bernoulli P (X = 1) = p
Bern(p) P (X = 0) = q = 1 − p p pq q + pet

n
k n−k
Binomial P (X = k) = k
p q
Bin(n, p) k ∈ {0, 1, 2, . . . n} np npq (q + pet )n

Geometric P (X = k) = q k p
p
Geom(p) k ∈ {0, 1, 2, . . . } q/p q/p2 1−qet
, qet < 1

r+n−1
r n
Negative Binomial P (X = n) = r−1
p q
p
NBin(r, p) n ∈ {0, 1, 2, . . . } rq/p rq/p2 ( 1−qe r t
t ) , qe < 1

  
w+b
 
P (X = k) = w b /
Hypergeometric k n−k n  
nw w+b−n µ µ
HGeom(w, b, n) k ∈ {0, 1, 2, . . . , n} µ= b+w w+b−1
nn (1 − n
) messy

e−λ λk
Poisson P (X = k) = k!
t
Pois(λ) k ∈ {0, 1, 2, . . . } λ λ eλ(e −1)

1
Uniform f (x) = b−a
a+b (b−a)2 etb −eta
Unif(a, b) x ∈ (a, b) 2 12 t(b−a)

2 2
f (x) = √1 e−(x − µ) /(2σ )
Normal σ 2π
σ 2 t2
N (µ, σ 2 ) x ∈ (−∞, ∞) µ σ2 etµ+ 2

Exponential f (x) = λe−λx

1 1 λ
Expo(λ) x ∈ (0, ∞) λ λ2 λ−t
, t<λ

1
f (x) = Γ(a)
(λx)a e−λx x1
Gamma  a
a a λ
Gamma(a, λ) x ∈ (0, ∞) λ λ2 λ−t
,t<λ

Γ(a+b) a−1
f (x) = Γ(a)Γ(b)
x (1 − x)b−1
Beta
a µ(1−µ)
Beta(a, b) x ∈ (0, 1) µ= a+b (a+b+1)
messy

2
1
√ e−(log x−µ) /(2σ 2 )
Log-Normal xσ 2π
2 2
LN (µ, σ 2 ) x ∈ (0, ∞) θ = eµ+σ /2 θ2 (eσ − 1) doesn’t exist

1
Chi-Square xn/2−1 e−x/2
2n/2 Γ(n/2)
χ2n x ∈ (0, ∞) n 2n (1 − 2t)−n/2 , t < 1/2

Γ((n+1)/2)
√
nπΓ(n/2)
(1 + x2 /n)−(n+1)/2
Student-t
n
tn x ∈ (−∞, ∞) 0 if n > 1 n−2
if n > 2 doesn’t exist