Introduction to crop simulation models and their uses for optimization of

Agricultural inputs
Modelling and Simulation is a discipline for developing a level of understanding
of the interaction of the parts of a system, and of the system as a whole.

Simulation is defined as a technique for studying real world dynamical systems

by imitating their behaviour using a mathematical model of the system implemented on a
digital computer.

Simulation can be viewed as a numerical technique for solving complicated

probability models, ordinary differential equation and partial differential equation,
analogously to the way in which we can use a computer to numerically evaluate the integral
of a complicated function.

A model is a schematic representation of the conception of a system or an act of

mimicry or a set of equations, which represents the behavior of a system. Also, a model is
“A representation of an object, system or idea in some form other than that of the entity
itself”. Its purpose is usually to aid in explaining, understanding or improving performance
of a system.

TYPES OF MODELS

Depending upon the purpose for which it is designed the models are classified into
different groups or types. Of them a few are:
a. Statistical models: These models express the relationship between yield or yield
components and weather parameters. In these models relationships are measured in a
system using statistical techniques. Example: Step down regressions, correlation, etc.
b. Mechanistic models: These models explain not only the relationship between weather
parameters and yield, but also the mechanism of these models (explains the
relationship of influencing dependent variables). These models are based on physical
selection.
c. Deterministic models: These models estimate the exact value of the yield or
dependent variable. These models also have defined coefficients.
d. Stochastic models: A probability element is attached to each output. For each set of
inputs different outputs are given along with probabilities. These models define yield
or state of dependent variable at a given rate.
e. Dynamic models: Time is included as a variable. Both dependent and independent
variables are having values which remain constant over a given period of time.
f. Static: Time is not included as a variable. Dependent and independent variables
having values remain constant over a given period of time.
g. Simulation models: Computer models, in general, are a mathematical representation
of a real world system. One of the main goals of crop simulation models is to estimate
agricultural production as a function of weather and soil conditions as well as crop
management. These models use one or more sets of differential equations, and
 calculate both rate and state variables over time, normally from planting until harvest
maturity or final harvest.
h. Descriptive model: A descriptive model defines the behaviour of a system in a simple
manner. The model reflects little or none of the mechanisms that are the causes of
phenomena. But, consists of one or more mathematical equations. An example of such
an equation is the one derived from successively measured weights of a crop. The
equation is helpful to determine quickly the weight of the crop where no observation
was made.
i. Explanatory model: This consists of quantitative description of the mechanisms and
processes that cause the behavior of the system. To create this model, a system is
analyzed and its processes and mechanisms are quantified separately. The model is
built by integrating these descriptions for the entire system. It contains descriptions of
distinct processes such as leaf area expansion, tiller production, etc. Crop growth is a
consequence of these processes.

Modelling in agricultural systems

Complexity of agricultural systems

Agricultural systems are characterized by having many organizational levels. From
the individual components within a single plant, through constituent plants, to farms or a
whole agricultural region or nation, lies a whole range of agricultural systems. Since the
core of agriculture is concerned with plants, the level that is of main interest to the
agricultural modeller is the plant. Reactions and interactions at the level of tissues and
organs are combined to form a picture of the plant that is then extrapolated to the crop and
their output.
Models in agriculture
Agricultural models are mathematical equations that represent the reactions that occur
within the plant and the interactions between the plant and its environment. Owing to the
complexity of the system and the incomplete status of present knowledge, it becomes
impossible to completely represent the system in mathematical terms and hence, agricultural
models images of the reality. Unlike in the fields of physics and engineering, universal
models do not exist within the agricultural sector. Models are built for specific purposes and
the level of complexity is accordingly adopted. Inevitably, different models are built for
different subsystems and several models may be built to simulate a particular crop or a
particular aspect of the production system.
Input data requirement for crop modelling
Crop modeling requires data related to weather, crop, soil, management practices and
insect-pests as shown below.
a. Weather data: Maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity,
solar radiation and wind speed. Weather data is required at daily time step to assess
daily crop growth process.
b. Crop data: Crop variety, crop phenology (days to anthesis, days to maturity etc),
 leaf area index, grain yield above ground biomass, 1000-grain weight.
c. Soil data: Thickness of soil layer, pH, EC, N, P, K, soil organic carbon, soil texture,
sand and clay per cent (soil moisture, saturation, field capacity and wilting point),
bulk density etc.
d. Crop management data: Date of sowing of crop is required to initiate the
simulation process. Generally, sowing date is taken as start time for the simulation.
In case of transplanted rice date of transplanting is used instead of sowing date.
Seed rate and depth of seeding are also required. Use of input in crop field, namely
irrigation, fertilizer, manure, crop residues etc needs to be mentioned. Amount of
these inputs are specified along with their type, date of application and depth of
placement. If crop residues or organic nutrient sources are applied, C: N ratio of
those sources has to be quantified.
e. Pest data: Name and type of the pest, their mode of attack, pest population at
different crop growth stages. Data on insects or pests are included only in those
models which contains the pest module.
Optimization of agriculture inputs
Optimising models have the specific objective of devising the best option in terms of
management inputs for practical operation of the system. Using the simulation approach to
identify a restricted set of management options that are then evaluated with the optimizing
models has been reported as a useful option.
Some crop models reported in recent literature:
Software Details
SLAM II Forage harvesting operation
SPICE Whole plant water flow
REALSOY Soybean
MODVEX Model development and validation system
IRRIGATE Irrigating scheduling model
COTTAM Cotton
GWM General weed model in row crops
APSIM Modelling framework for a range of crops
GOSSYM-COMAX Cotton
CropSyst Wheat and other crops
TUBERPRO Potato and disease
SIMPOTATO Potato
WOFOST Wheat & Maize, water and nutrient
WAVE Water and agrochemicals
ORYZA 1 Rice, water
EPIC Erosion productivity impact calculator
CERES Series of crop simulation models
DSSAT Frame work of crop simulation models including modules of
 CERES,CROPGROW and CROPSIM
QCANE Sugarcane, potential conditions
CANEFRO Sugarcane, potential & water stress conditions
APSIM-sugarcane Sugarcane, potential growth, water and nitrogen stress

Agricultural model uses and limitation

Crop model are not universal, the user has to choose the most appropriate model
according to his objectives. Even when a judicious choice is made, it is important that
aspects of model limitations be borne in mind such modellling studies are put in the proper
perspective and successful applications are achieved.
Model Uses:
Simulation modeling is increasing being applied in research, teaching, farm and
resource management, policy analysis and production forecast. These models can be applied
into three area
A. Research tools
B. Crop system management tools
C. Policy analysis
A. As research tools:
a) Research understanding: Adopting a modeling approach could contribute towards
more targeted and efficient research planning.
b) Integration of knowledge across disciplines: Adoption of molecular approach in
model coding allows the scientist to pursue his discipline oriented research in an
independent manner and at a later stage to integrate the acquired knowledge into
model. For example, the modular aspect of the APSIM software allows the integration
of knowledge across crops as well as across disciplines for a particular crop.
c) Improvement in experimental documentation and data organization: The
systematic organization of data enhances the efficiency of the data manipulation in
other research areas (e.g. productivity analysis, changes in soil fertility status over
time).
d) Genetic improvement: More precise information can be obtained regarding the
impact of different genetic traits on economic yield and these can be integrated in
genetic improvement programs, e.g. NTKenaf model. Researcher used the modeling
approach to design crop ideotypes for specific environments.
e) Yield analysis: Use of several simulation models to assess climatically-determined
yield in various crops. The CANEGRO model has been used along the same lines in
the south African industry. Through, the modeling approach, quantification of yield
reduction caused by non-climatic causes (e.g. delayed sowing, soil fertility, pests and
disease) become possible.
B. As crop system management tools:
a) Cultural and input management: Simulation models, that allow the specification of
management options, offer a relatively inexpensive means of evaluating a large
number of strategies that would rapidly become too expensive if the traditional
experimentation approach were to be adopted.
 b) Risk assessment and investment support: Using combination of simulated yields
and gross margin, economic risk and weather related variability can be assessed.
c) Site- specific farming: Profit maximization may be achieved by managing farms as
sets of sub-units and providing the required input at the optimum level to match the
variation in soil properties across the farm. Such an endeavour is attainable by
coupling simulation models with geographical information system (GIS) to produce
maps of predicted yield over the farm.
C. As policy analysis tool
a) Best management practices: Models having chemical leaching or erosion
components can be used to determine the best practices over the long term. The
EPIC model has been used to evaluate erosion risk due to cropping practices and
tillage.
b) Yield forecasting: Yield forecasting for industries over large areas is important to
the producer (harvesting and transport), the processing agent (milling period) as well
as the marketing agency.
c) Introduction of a new crop: Agricultural research is linked to prevailing cropping
system in a particular region. Hence, data concerning the growth and development of
a new crop in that region would be lacking.
d) Global climate change and crop production: Assessing the effect of climate
change on crop yield is important at the producer as well as at the government level
for planning purpose.
Model limitations:
• Models and simulations can’t ever completely re-create real life situations
• Not every possible situation have been included in the model
• The equipment and software are expensive to purchase.
• The result depends on how good the model is and how much data was used to create it in
the first place.