Introduction to Population

Fo r e c a s t i n g Me t h o d s

AKHIL SHETTY
CHITKARA UNIVERSITY
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Why Population Forecasting Matters?

Critical for Water Infrastructure Planning

• Ensures adequate water supply for future
generations
• Helps in designing sustainable water systems

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 Economic Implications
• Prevents over or under-investment
in water infrastructure
• Optimizes resource allocation

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Environmental Considerations
• Aids in sustainable water
resource management
• Helps balance human needs with
ecosystem preservation
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Key Factors Influencing Population
Growth
1. Birth rates
2.Death rates
3.Migration patterns
4.Economic
development
5.Urban expansion
6.Government policies 5
Common Population Forecasting Methods
Arithmetic Increase Method
Assumes constant population growth

Geometric Increase Method

Assumes percentage growth remains constant

Incremental Increase Method

Considers varying rates of population increase

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Decreasing Rate of Growth Method
Accounts for slowing growth rates over time

Logistic Curve Method

Assumes S-shaped growth pattern with saturation
level

Graphical Comparison Method

Compares growth trends with similar cities
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 Choosing the Right Method

• Depends on available historical data

• Consider local demographic trends
• Align with regional development plans
• Use multiple methods for cross-
verification 8
Importance in Water Demand Calculation
• Directly impacts projected water needs
• Influences design of water treatment plants
• Affects planning for water distribution
networks
• Crucial for long-term water resource
management

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 Next Steps

• Detailed exploration of each forecasting

method
• Practical examples and calculations
• Application to real-world water supply
projects

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 Arithmetical Increase Method for Population
Forecasting
Overview
The Arithmetical Increase Method is one of the simplest and most widely
used techniques for population forecasting in water supply projects. It
assumes that the population increases at a constant rate over time.

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Key Concept
• Population growth is linear
• The rate of change of population with time is
constant

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 Example Calculation

Given:
Population in 2000 (P₁): 50,000
Population in 2010 (P₂): 60,000
Projection needed for 2030

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Step 1: Calculate X
X = (60,000 - 50,000) / (2010 - 2000) = 10,000 per
decade

Step 2: Project population for 2030

P₃ = P₂ + (n × X)
Where n = Number of decades from 2010 to 2030 P₃ =
60,000 + (2 × 10,000) = 80,000

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 Key Takeaways
• Simple but effective for stable growth scenarios
• Always compare with other forecasting methods
• Consider local factors that might influence population
growth
• Regularly update projections with new census data

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Solve This
P roblem?

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Geometric Increase Method for Population
Forecasting

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 Advantages
• Accounts for compounding effect of population growth
• Suitable for rapidly growing areas
• More realistic for long-term projections than arithmetic method
• Reflects exponential nature of biological growth

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 Limitations
• May overestimate growth for mature communities
• Assumes constant growth rate, which may not hold true
• Sensitive to the choice of base population and time
period
• Does not account for limiting factors like land availability

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 When to Use
• F or rapidly growing towns or cities
• When historical data shows consistent percentage
growth
• F or medium to long-term projections (20 -30 years)
• In areas with ample room for expansion

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Incremental Increase Method for Population
Forecasting

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 •›
suitable for an average size town under normal condition where the growth
rate is found to be in increasing order.
•
•›
Increase in increment is considered for calculating future population.
•
•›
The incremental increase is determined for each decade from the past
population and the average value is added to the present population along with
the average rate of increase.

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 Decreasing Rate of Growth Method for Population Forecasting

Overview
•The Decreasing Rate of Growth Method is used when the growth rate of population
is expected to decline over time.
•This method assumes that as a city develops and matures, factors like limited
resources, urban saturation, and demographic transitions lead to a gradual reduction
in the rate of population growth.

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Key Concept
• Population growth slows down over time.
• The method uses past population data to estimate the declining growth rate.
• Suitable for cities or regions approaching population saturation.

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 Simple Graphical Method of Population Forecasting
The steps of estimation of population by simple graphical method are described below:

1. Plotting P vs T graph: A graph is plotted taking time on Y-axis and population on X-axis to an appropriate scale.

The time is taken at an interval of a decade for which the population is known from the census data. Hence, census data
of previous few decades is essential for this method.

2. Population Curve: The population vs time is plotted and all the dots are joined to obtain the population curve up to
the present period.

3. Extended Curve: The graph is then extended smoothly up to the design period following the shape of the plotted
curve. The extension requires a keen judgment, which comes from experience.

One of the ways to extend is by comparing the population curve of some other town/city which shows similar growth
characteristics.

4. Approximate Estimate: From this extended curve, the future population is then derived. This estimate is an
approximate value.
Population Curve from Simple Graphical Method
Step4: Estimate the population value (Pn)
corresponding to the year n from population curve:
In this case, the estimated population will be
approximately 1,80,00,000
Advantages:
•Simple and intuitive
•Provides a visual representation of growth trends
Limitations:
•Assumes past trends will continue
•May not account for sudden changes or interventions