repo-report_2024-2025
repo-report_2024-2025
Clearing 2024/2025
Navigating Uncertainty:
Geopolitics and Market Dynamics
Table of Content
03 Market Development in European Repo Markets
Authors
Frank Gast
Member of the Management Board, Eurex Repo GmbH
Global Head of Repo, Eurex
Matthias Graulich
Member of the Management Board, Eurex Repo GmbH,
Chief Strategy Officer, Member of the Executive Board, Eurex Clearing AG
Carsten Hiller
Head of Repo Sales Europe, Eurex Repo GmbH
Frank Odendall
Head of Securities Financing Product & Business Development,
Eurex Repo GmbH
2
Navigating Uncertainty: Geopolitics
and Market Dynamics
The Transition from “Cash Hunting
for Collateral” to “Collateral Hunting
for Cash”
The year 2024 marked a significant shift in the dynamics of the repo market, transitioning from
an environment where cash was hunting for collateral to one where collateral was looking for cash.
This review highlights the key developments, figures, and trends for 2024 in the European Repo
Market in general and the Eurex repo market in particular, along with the challenges, successes,
and issues likely to impact 2025. Therefore, “Navigating Uncertainty: Geopolitics and Market
Dynamics” has been chosen as the theme of our Deutsche Börse Group (Eurex & Clearstream) Global
Funding & Financing Summit 2025 and is the headline of this annual report too.
Market Development
in European Repo Markets
Central banks once played a crucial role in shaping with expectations of a few rate reductions
the securities finance landscape this year again. in the latter half of 2024. Similarly, the ECB
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank was expected to begin cutting rates in the second
(ECB), and other major central banks have navi- half of the year, albeit at a slower pace. These
gated a complex environment of moderating decisions have influenced borrowing costs
inflation and economic uncertainty. The Fed and market liquidity, impacting the demand
signalled a slower pace of interest rate cuts, and pricing of securities.
3.70 4.5%
€ Trn
3.50
4.0%
3.30
3.10 3.5%
2.90
3.0%
2.70
2.50 2.5%
Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24 Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24
Excess Liquidity (LHS) ECB Deposit Facility Rate (RHS) Source: Bloomberg
3
Quantitative tightening was a significant factor to the decline. As of January 2025, the Eurosystem
for the European Central Bank (ECB). Since early will no longer reinvest any of its monetary policy
2023, the ECB has gradually reduced its balance bond holdings, leading to a run-off in our port-
sheet resulting in decreased liquidity in the finan- folios of around €40 billion per month.
cial system. This reduction in liquidity has led
to tighter financial conditions, affecting the avail- In March 2024, the ECB's Governing Council
ability and cost of collateral. announced changes to the operational frame-
work for implementing monetary policy.
Over the past two years, excess liquidity in the euro The main change, effective from September 2024,
area has significantly declined. It has decreased is the reduction of the spread between the Main
by over a third from its peak in 2022, dropping Refinancing Operations (MRO) rate and the Deposit
below € 2.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Facility Rate from 50 bp to 15 bp.
This decline in excess liquidity predominantly
resulted from banks repaying the loans they The reduction in collateral scarcity has led to
had taken under the third series of targeted the normalization of repo markets. Central bank
longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs). policies influenced the availability of collateral,
More recently, the phasing-out of reinvestments particularly high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) like
of bonds maturing under the Eurosystem’s mone- German Bunds. As central banks wind down their
tary policy portfolios increasingly contributed balance sheet, more collateral enters the market.
60
bps
50
40
30
20
10
–10
Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24 Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24
180
bps
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24 Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24
Source: Bloomberg
4
This increased supply makes collateral cheaper for collateral management strategies, as insti-
and easier to obtain. However, the demand tutions seek to optimize their collateral usage
for HQLA remains high due to regulatory require- in a cost-effectively.
ments and risk management needs.
Overall, the interplay of central bank decisions,
Specifically, the cheapening of German Bunds interest rates, quantitative tightening, and collat-
is notable. The increased supply from central eral dynamics created a complex and evolving
bank actions and broader market dynamics have environment for the securities finance industry
led to lower yields and reduced borrowing costs in 2024.
for these securities. This trend has implications
Development at Eurex
Repo Markets
ECB’s policy decisions significantly impacted markets, renewed interest has emerged since
private funding markets as the eurozone's excess the ECB’s rate hikes began in 2022 and demand
liquidity, although still high, is expected to decline has remained robust since then. Total outstanding
further. With reduced central bank support volumes across all repo segments at Eurex
ahead, market participants are re-evaluating remained on elevated levels, down just 3.7%
their funding strategies. In Eurex's cleared repo compared to last year’s record numbers.
1,000 5,000
Outstanding (in bn EUR)
800 4,000
700 3,500
600 3,000
500 2,500
400 2,000
300 1,500
200 1,000
100 500
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: ECB and Eurex. Calculation according to ICMA Repo survey methodology.
5
Repo markets will play a crucial role in funding where new participants and improved quoting
plans as excess liquidity reduces further. In recent mechanisms added liquidity. BTPS stood out as
years, there has been a high demand for single Italian clients became much more active at Eurex.
ISIN trades at Eurex, where they once made up Additional growth is anticipated for BTPS repo
90% of activity, outpacing GC Pooling. Around two trading at Eurex, partly due to the repayment
years ago, GC Pooling activity saw a resurgence and maturity of TLTROs, which results in a need
as the market returned to strategies like spread to refinance the released collateral.
and arbitrage trading (e.g. versus €STR Swaps
or the Deposit Facility Rate), which had previously A key driver in the rise of European cleared repo
been subdued due to quantitative easing. is the growing presence of buy-side institutions
New participants, especially pension funds and at Eurex. Their share of outstanding volume
insurers, and other non-bank institutions like at Eurex increased by about 15% from the same
central banks and supranationals, initially boosted period last year. This is set to increase again, with
GC Pooling volumes. However, recent market new buy-side firms in the process of onboarding
expectations regarding rate cuts in 2024 /2025 to Eurex. In total, the number of cleared repo
by the ECB and the cheapening of collateral, which market participants at Eurex now stands at 166.
pushed GC Pooling levels closer to the Deposit
Facility Rate (DFR), have subsequently reduced Pension funds in particular, frequently encounter
the growth of GC Pooling and term repo activity. challenges in liquidity management stemming
from the cash variation margin requirements
Further, notable market developments have been imposed by centrally cleared OTC IRS. They need
related to hedge fund positioning. Hedge funds quick access to cash for margin payments, yet
have shifted toward long positions in European their business model leans towards long-term
Government Bonds, particularly in German Govern- investments in search of higher yields. Eurex’s
ment bonds (Bunds), building up the highest cleared repo markets offer an attractive solution
net long positions seen in recent years. Amid rate to raise or place cash reliably and efficiently.
cuts and more Bund supply, Bund prices returned
to pre-QE levels. Increased activity in French (OATS), For example, Eurex’s buy-side clients can now
Italian (BTPS), and Spanish (Bonos) government invest their cash buffers in GC Pooling at signifi-
bonds offset falling Bund activity in Eurex’s market, cantly higher rates than those in bilateral repo
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023 2024
Germany France Spain Italy Other
6
markets, with the confidence to monetize collat- In addition, several buy-side firms have become
eral at short-notice. Current EUR GC Pooling active in single ISIN repo, i.e. trading their high-
rates are close to the ECB's deposit rate, around quality assets on Eurex Repo’s F7 trading system.
8 –10 bps above €STR. Eurex’s setup enables This provides a new source of liquidity to the street
efficient execution and in large ticket sizes, with with all the benefits of cleared repo.
buy-side firms regularly investing € 5 –10 billion
within 10–20 minutes – a process that would take
much of the morning in bilateral markets.
6
bps
0
–6
–12
–18
–24
–30
–36
–42
–48
–54
–60
–66
–72
–78
–84
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
6
bps
4
2
0
–2
–4
–6
–8
–10
–12
–14
–16
–18
–20
–22
–24
–26
–28
–30
–32
–34
–36
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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GC Pooling o/n daily spread and average monthly spread EXT basket vs. ECB basket
1 January 2024 – 31 December 2024
bps 46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Spread EXT vs. ECB Average monthly spread
Year-End 2024 – This Time it’s Different At the end of 2024, the repo market showed
notable variations in rates and spreads.
In October, year-end preparations in the Special However, overall conditions were very smooth,
Repo market started with huge trading volumes with no concerns regarding liquidity in either
in the 3-month terms, mainly in French and Italian bonds or cash. The STOXX GC Pooling ECB
Government bonds. Contrary to previous years, basket overnight rate was 2.232%, with a spread
where collateral scarcity and demand for bonds of –67.3 basis points to the €STR fixing of 2.905%.
drove rates lower over year-end, this year was
different. With plenty of collateral in the market, Meanwhile, the STOXX GC Pooling EXT basket
refinancing pressure over year-end pushed rates overnight rate stood at 2.66%, with a spread
higher. EUR govies traded in 3-month terms of –24.5 basis points to the same fixing.
between €STR +(10–15) bps, implying a triple-digit
spread versus €STR over the 2-day year-end turn. On 27 December, Bunds specials in the Spot Next
market had an average rate of 2.75%, ranging
In November, overall term-adjusted volumes from 1.7% to 2.96%, and a spread of –15.5 basis
increased by 42% compared to October, driven points to the €STR fixing. Other specials in EUR
by high term activity in the GC Pooling ECB basket, government bonds on the same day had an aver-
with trades in standard terms up to twelve age rate of 2.89%, with rates spanning from
months and significant sizes in six-month terms. 2.65% to 3.04%, and a spread of –1.5 basis points.
Eurex’s “break dates” functionality has been
heavily employed in these term trades, allowing By December 31st, other specials in EUR govern-
clients to maximize netting opportunities. Despite ment bonds in the overnight market had an aver-
lower term business in Special Repo compared age rate of 2.44%, with a range from 0.75%
to October, there were notable term trades to 2.80%, and a spread of – 46.5 basis points
in various government bonds, particularly in to the €STR fixing.
Bunds, French, and Italian bonds up to 6 months.
Flex terms also saw significant activity, with OATS
trading with break dates for twelve months.
8
Innovation and
Strategic Enhancements
in 2024
Eurex implemented several strategic initiatives and native digital securities. This approach aims
in 2024 across trading, collateral and settlement. to ensure Eurex Repo remains at the forefront
of innovation and market development, providing
Regarding trading, Eurex notably introduced a resilient and efficient platform for all market
the GC Pooling Green Bond Basket to further participants.
promote sustainable financing. This product
has seen significant activity since its launch in April. For the exceptionally strong growth of the repo
In July, pricing adjustments for terms exceeding markets at Eurex over the last couple of years,
one month were implemented to incentivize as well as our innovations and initiatives in both
term repo. Given the increasing demand for the Sales and Product Development areas,
NSFR-driven term repo transactions, Eurex also we proudly received industry recognition
expanded the maximum trading term to three with the Securities Finance Excellence Award
years in August. “European Repo Team of the Year”.
Finally, Eurex Repo participated in several Eurex Repo “European Team of the Year”, pictures from ceremony
in July 2024 – above from left to right: Michel Seeman (BBVA),
successful Eurosystem trials and experiments
Cassandra Jones (State Street), Stoil Topalov (Barclays),
on new technologies for wholesale central bank Peter Fuhrmann (Eurex), Carsten Hiller (Eurex), Katja Renner (Eurex),
money settlement that involved CCP cleared Frank Gast (Eurex), Lucy Tophman (Elan Capital Management),
and non-CCP cleared initiatives as well as hybrid Guido Schlenckenbrock (Point 72), Chris Page (Eurex)
9
European Commission joins Eurex Repo
A total of 22 new licenses have been granted repo trades, banks are preparing for its launch.
in 2023 and 2024. In a major milestone for Eurex, Until 2023, Société Générale was the only bank
the European Commission announced that providing pension fund clearing access, but re-
it will provide a repo facility for EU Bonds via cently, ABN Amro began offering buy-side access
the Eurex Repo platform. with different access models. In Q4-2024, several
banks have started preparations to become
The European Commission further strengthens a clearing agent for ISA Direct repo thereby
the market infrastructure for EU bonds by par- providing buy-side firms to choose between
ticipating in repo trading and clearing at Eurex. different “sponsors” and, consequently increase
It supports its secondary market liquidity as well their usage of cleared repo activities. In 2025,
as its use as collateral liquid trading in its issued we expect more banks to offer their clients this
EU bonds. clearing of repo transactions at Eurex.
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Outlook for 2025
Economists project moderate global economic The regulatory landscape will remain as important
growth for 2025, with emerging markets and tech- as ever in 2025, particularly as banks navigate
driven industries leading the charge. Inflation the finalization of Basel 3 implementation across
is expected to stabilize, though geopolitical risks all key jurisdictions, notwithstanding the con-
and climate-related disruptions could create tinuing political uncertainty in the U.S. and what
uncertainties. it means for globally consistent regulation.
The emphasis on Standardized approaches in
Regarding interest rates in the Eurozone, the Basel 3 capital standards will tighten balance
the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected sheet and capital constraints, which will in turn
to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2025. incentivize banks to further examine the efficien-
Following several rate cuts in 2024, the ECB cies of Eurex’s cleared repo markets in optimizing
signaled an easing bias, with economists antici- scarce financial resources. The existing challenges
pating further reductions in 2025. The ECB’s with Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) management
deposit facility rate, currently at 3.00%, is projected will further exacerbate in 2025 with the forth-
to be cut by an additional 100 basis points over coming expiry of the temporary provisions that
the year, potentially bringing it close to 2%. allow reduced stable funding requirements
This continued easing aims to support eco- for short term reverse repo transactions in June.
nomic growth and stabilize inflation around
the ECB's medium-term target of 2%. However, As the demand for repo increases, leverage-
the ECB's approach will remain data-dependent, based capital costs are expected to become more
adjusting to economic developments and risks and more relevant for commercial banks that,
as they arise. ultimately, may restrict access to the bank’s
balance sheet for some non-banking financial
The change to the ECB’s operational framework, institutions (NBFI). Therefore, we expect more
announced in March and effective from September buy-side clients such as pension funds, insurance
2024, reduced the spread between the MRO rate companies and hedge funds to explore Eurex’s
and the Deposit Facility Rate from 50 basis points innovative buy-side access models to take advan-
to 15 basis points. There are mixed views on how tage of the efficiencies in cleared repo markets.
this impacts the repo market. Some see this kind Corporates also represent a new target client
of cheap money from the central bank as a threat segment for Eurex, driven by attractive GC Pooling
to the repo market, while others believe it will repo rates and operational efficiency.
not have a major impact, as 15 basis points is still
a significant spread in the repo market. High- Eurex has submitted its application to the regu-
quality liquid assets (HQLA) should still trade latory authorities to migrate its cash bond & repo
around the deposit facility rate even in times margin methodology to its market leading Prisma
of cheap collateral. At the same time, the MRO risk methodology already utilized for Eurex’s
is expected to be used primarily for refinancing exchange-traded derivatives and OTC IRS. Intro-
non-marketable or illiquid assets such as credit ducing Prisma will reflect the risk more accurately
claims. It will be interesting to see how this and significantly lower the cost of clearing repo
develops in 2025 and whether there will be any transactions for Eurex’s clients. Eurex anticipates
implications for the European repo market. implementation in Q4-2025. More strategically,
11
aligning methodologies across cash, repo and Eurex is committed to supporting market parti-
derivatives enables Eurex to offer cross product cipants in the Euro-denominated repo markets
margining in the near future, benefiting its clients by delivering superior value and navigating
and enhancing the efficiency and resilience through both foreseen and unforeseen challenges.
of the Euro capital markets as a whole. The Eurex Repo business remains a key pillar
in the overall Eurex vision to build out the Home
The landmark decision of the U.S. Securities and of the Euro Yield curve. Robust technology,
Exchange Commission on mandatory clearing operations and risk management capabilities,
for U.S. Treasuries has several implications and a coordinated approach to sustainability
for European repo markets going forward. underpin Eurex’s business model.
The broad suite of clearinghouse access models
required to cater to the broad range of market In summary, Eurex will focus on attracting
participants impacted should enhance familiarity additional buy-side participants to cleared repo,
and acceptance of these models. Similarly, maintaining its momentum in GC Pooling
there will be renewed conversations around risk as the largest pan-European liquidity-pool,
management in government bond repo where and growing its market share in the D2D Special
the practice of margining / haircuts is absent repo segment supported by improved margin
in certain repo market segments today. Finally, efficiencies and highly effective settlement
the U.S. developments will promote discussion processes.
on the need for similar measures for European
government bond cash and repo transactions
in the EU, notwithstanding the differences
in market structure.
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Services & Contacts
Area Area Phone E-mail
Contact us
Eurex Repo
[email protected]
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able care has been taken in the preparation of this publication illustrative purposes only.
13
Further Information – Publications from 2024
New York Roundtable: The expanding role of the buy-side in cleared repo
24 October
14
© Eurex, January 2025
Published by
Eurex Repo GmbH
Mergenthalerallee 61
65760 Eschborn
Germany
Find out more online at
www.eurex.com eurex.com/repo
ARBN Number
Eurex Frankfurt AG ARBN 100 999 764
15