COURSE: Math 13 Engineering Data Analysis

TOPIC 1: Obtaining Data

Title Learning Outcomes

Topic “I SHOULD BE ABLE TO”… Estimated
time
1 1.1. THE Identify the steps in the engineering 2 hours
ENGINEERING method of problem-solving process
METHOD AND
STATISTICAL
THINKING

1.2. COLLECTING Discuss the different methods that

ENGINEERING DATA engineers use to collect data

1-3 MECHANISTIC AND Explain the differences between

EMPIRICAL MODELS mechanistic models and empirical models

Study
1-1 THE ENGINEERING METHOD AND STATISTICAL THINKING
An engineer is someone who solves problems of interest to society by the efficient application of
scientific principles. Engineers accomplish this by either refining an existing product or process or by
designing a new product or process that meets customers’ needs. The engineering, or scientific,
method is the approach to formulating and solving these problems. The steps in the engineering
method are as follows:
1. Develop a clear and concise description of the problem.
2. Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors that affect this problem or that may play a
role in its solution.
3. Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or engineering knowledge of the
phenomenon being studied. State any limitations or assumptions of the model.
4. Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to test or validate the tentative model or
conclusions made in steps 2 and 3.
5. Refine the model on the basis of the observed data.
6. Manipulate the model to assist in developing a solution to the problem.
7. Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that the proposed solution to the problem is
both effective and efficient.
 8. Draw conclusions or make recommendations based on the problem solution.
The steps in the engineering method are shown in Fig. 1-1. Many of the engineering sciences are
employed in the engineering method: the mechanical sciences (statics, dynamics), fluid science,
thermal science, electrical science, and the science of materials. Notice that the engineering method
features a strong interplay between the problem, the factors that may influence its solution, a model
of the phenomenon, and experimentation to verify the adequacy of the model and the proposed
solution to the problem. Steps 2–4 in Fig. 1-1 are enclosed in a box, indicating that several cycles or
iterations of these steps may be required to obtain the final solution. Consequently, engineers must
know how to efficiently plan experiments, collect data, analyze and interpret the data, and
understand how the observed data are related to the model they have proposed for the problem
under study.
The field of statistics deals with the collection, presentation, analysis, and use of data to make
decisions, solve problems, and design products and processes. In simple terms, statistics is the
science of data. Because many aspects of engineering practice involve working with data, obviously
knowledge of statistics is just as important to an engineer as the other engineering sciences.
Specifically, statistical techniques can be a powerful aid in designing new products and systems,
improving existing designs, and designing, developing, and improving production processes.

Figure 1-1 The engineering method.

Statistical methods are used to help us describe and understand variability. By variability, we mean
that successive observations of a system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same result.
We all encounter variability in our everyday lives, and statistical thinking can give us a useful way to
incorporate this variability into our decision-making processes. For example, consider the gasoline
mileage performance of your car. Do you always get exactly the same mileage performance on
every tank of fuel? Of course not—in fact, sometimes the mileage performance varies considerably.
This observed variability in gasoline mileage depends on many factors, such as the type of driving
that has occurred most recently (city versus highway), the changes in condition of the vehicle over
time (which could include factors such as tire inflation, engine compression, or valve wear), the
brand and/or octane number of the gasoline used, or possibly even the weather conditions that have
been recently experienced. These factors represent potential sources of variability in the system.
Statistics provides a framework for describing this variability and for learning about which potential
sources of variability are the most important or which have the greatest impact on the gasoline
mileage performance. We also encounter variability in dealing with engineering problems.
1-2 COLLECTING ENGINEERING DATA

1-2.1 Basic Principles

Sometimes the data are all of the observations in the populations. This results in a census.
However, in the engineering environment, the data are almost always a sample that has been
selected from the population. Three basic methods of collecting data are
1. A retrospective study using historical data
2. An observational study
3. A designed experiment
An effective data-collection procedure can greatly simplify the analysis and lead to improved
understanding of the population or process that is being studied. We now consider some examples
of these data-collection methods.
Retrospective Study
Montgomery, Peck, and Vining (2006) describe an acetone-butyl alcohol distillation column for which
concentration of acetone in the distillate or output product stream is an important variable. Factors
that may affect the distillate are the reboil temperature, the condensate temperature, and the reflux
rate. Production personnel obtain and archive the following records:
• The concentration of acetone in an hourly test sample of output product
• The reboil temperature log, which is a plot of the reboil temperature over time
• The condenser temperature controller log The nominal reflux rate each hour
The reflux rate should be held constant for this process. Consequently, production personnel change
this very infrequently. A retrospective study would use either all or a sample of the historical process
data archived over some period of time. The study objective might be to discover the relationships
among the two temperatures and the reflux rate on the acetone concentration in the output product
stream. However, this type of study presents some problems:
1. We may not be able to see the relationship between the reflux rate and acetone
concentration, because th reflux rate didn’t change much over the historical period.
2. The archived data on the two temperatures (which are recorded almost continuously)
do not correspond perfectly to the acetone concentration measurements (which are made
hourly). It may not be obvious how to construct an approximate correspondence.
3. Production maintains the two temperatures as closely as possible to desired targets
or set points. Because the temperatures change so little, it may be difficult to assess their
real impact on acetone concentration.
4. In the narrow ranges within which they do vary, the condensate temperature tends to
increase with the reboil temperature. Consequently, the effects of these two process
variables on acetone concentration may be difficult to separate.
As you can see, a retrospective study may involve a lot of data, but those data may contain relatively
little useful information about the problem. Furthermore, some of the relevant data may be missing,
there may be transcription or recording errors resulting in outliers (or unusual values), or data on
other important factors may not have been collected and archived. In the distillation column, for
example, the specific concentrations of butyl alcohol and acetone in the input feed stream are a very
important factor, but they are not archived because the concentrations are too hard to obtain on a
routine basis. As a result of these types of issues, statistical analysis of historical data sometimes
identifies interesting phenomena, but solid and reliable explanations of these phenomena are often
difficult to obtain.

Observational Study
In an observational study, the engineer observes the process or population, disturbing it as little as
possible, and records the quantities of interest. Because these studies are usually conducted for a
relatively short time period, sometimes variables that are not routinely measured can be included. In
the distillation column, the engineer would design a form to record the two temperatures and the
reflux rate when acetone concentration measurements are made. It may even be possible to
measure the input feed stream concentrations so that the impact of this factor could be studied.
Generally, an observational study tends to solve problems 1 and 2 above and goes a long way
toward obtaining accurate and reliable data. However, observational studies may not help resolve
problems 3 and 4.

Designed Experiments
In a designed experiment the engineer makes deliberate or purposeful changes in the controllable
variables of the system or process, observes the resulting system output data, and then makes an
inference or decision about which variables are responsible for the observed changes in output
performance. The nylon connector example in Section 1-1 illustrates a designed experiment; that is,
a deliberate change was made in the wall thickness of the connector with the objective of
discovering whether or not a greater pull-off force could be obtained. Experiments designed with
basic principles such as randomization are needed to establish cause-and-effect relationships.
Much of what we know in the engineering and physical-chemical sciences is developed through
testing or experimentation. Often engineers work in problem areas in which no scientific or
engineering theory is directly or completely applicable, so experimentation and observation of the
resulting data constitute the only way that the problem can be solved. Even when there is a good
underlying scientific theory that we may rely on to explain the phenomena of interest, it is almost
always necessary to conduct tests or experiments to confirm that the theory is indeed operative in
the situation or environment in which it is being applied.
Statistical thinking and statistical methods play an important role in planning, conducting, and
analyzing the data from engineering experiments. Designed experiments play a very important role
in engineering design and development and in the improvement of manufacturing processes.

1-3 MECHANISTIC AND EMPIRICAL MODELS

Models play an important role in the analysis of nearly all engineering problems. Much of the formal
education of engineers involves learning about the models relevant to specific fields and the
techniques for applying these models in problem formulation and solution. As a simple example,
suppose we are measuring the flow of current in a thin copper wire. Our model for this phenomenon
might be Ohm’s law: or
I = E/R 1.1
We call this type of model a mechanistic model because it is built from our underlying knowledge of
the basic physical mechanism that relates these variables. However, if we performed this
measurement process more than once, perhaps at different times, or even on different days, the
observed current could differ slightly because of small changes or variations in factors that are not
completely controlled, such as changes in ambient temperature, fluctuations in performance of the
gauge, small impurities present at different locations in the wire, and drifts in the voltage source.
Consequently, a more realistic model of the observed current might be
I = E/R + 1-2
where is a term added to the model to account for the fact that the observed values of current flow
do not perfectly conform to the mechanistic model. We can think of as a term that includes the
effects of all of the unmodeled sources of variability that affect this system.

RESEARCH
What are the social media platforms using data analytics?

ANALYSIS
How does FB messenger suggest search for you? Is there something to do about data
analytics? How?

ACTIVITY 1
Answer the following.
1. What are the steps in the engineering method of problem solving process?

2. Enumerate and discuss in brief the different methods that engineers use to collect data.

3. What are differences between mechanistic models and empirical models?

REFERENCES
1. Montgomery, D. C. Runger, G. C. Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers. John Wiley
and Sons. 2011.
2. Triola. M. F. Elementary Statistics. Addison-Wesley. 2012.
3. DeCoursey, W. J. Statistics and Probability for Engineering Applications. Elsevier Science.
2003.