The 2020-2030

Operating Environment
Research in support of the Vision 2050
issue brief on macrotrends and
disruptions shaping 2020-2030
2 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
Contents
Introduction: Why foresight matters for Vision 2050 | 4

1 The art of thinking about the future | 5

2 Detailed analysis of key trends across six different

landscapes | 10
Demographics | 11

Environment | 16

Economics | 19

Technology | 25

Politics | 35

Culture | 44

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 3
 Introduction: Why foresight
matters for Vision 2050
Our collective ability The ambition of this paper, The paper is in two parts:
to deliver on Vision written before the now rapidly
1. An introduction to the art of
unfolding COVID-19 crisis, is to
2050 (9+ billion people help us answer no and yes (in foresight and how to think
living well, within that order) to these questions by about the future potential of
planetary boundaries) offering up actionable foresight the present moment.
is dependent on our and analysis about the key
2. A detailed analysis of key
trends shaping the operating
ability to understand and trends across six different
landscape over the next 10 years.
navigate the dynamic Although COVID-19 will change
landscapes: demographics,
context within which everything in the short-term, the
environment, economics,
technology, politics and
we will be operating 2020s remain a “make-or-break”
culture. For each landscape,
over the decades decade for Vision 2050, and for
we highlight a number of
the sustainable development
ahead. Business has agenda encapsulated in the UN
highly likely trends, as well as
considerable agency to Sustainable Development Goals
identifying potential “wildcard”
disruptions that are less
shape the future but will (SDGs). We have not rewritten this
likely, but which could have a
have to operate within paper in an attempt to integrate
major impact if they were to
the context created by the fallout from the COVID-19
materialize.
crisis – things are happening at
environmental, social, such speed and scale that would No crystal balls were used in the
economic, technological, likely deliver results of limited process: we cannot predict what
political and cultural value. We have taken the view the future will look like in detail.
forces that are beyond that the environmental, social, Rather, the task at hand is to
economic, technological, political
our control, though not and cultural forces that we have
understand, as best we can, the
underlying forces shaping the
necessarily beyond explored in this paper will remain emergent future and how these are
our influence. just as relevant, in how they shape likely to interact with one another.
the decade to come, and now in
How we respond to those forces is how we respond to the COVID-19 This research serves primarily
crucial. Will we be blown off course crisis as well as how we begin to to underpin our Vision 2050
by headwinds and crosswinds recover from its effects. issue brief on the Macrotrends &
that we failed to prepare for? Disruptions shaping 2020-2030.
Or can we develop strategies
that are resilient in the face of
predictable surprises and that
harness the momentum created
by forces outside our control to
accelerate progress towards the
goal of an inclusive, resilient and
regenerative economy?

4 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
 1 The art of thinking about
the future
Because our knowledge of the future can only ever be partial and based on hypotheses,
foresight is more art than science. There are, however, some basic rules that underpin
effective futures thinking.

This section covers three topics that are fundamental to the art of thinking about
the future:
1. Learning not to think in straight lines.
2. What the past can and can’t teach us about the future.
3. The impact of the highly improbable.

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 5
 Lesson 1: Change is very rarely linear - and yet we are by nature linear thinkers

We always overestimate the change that will occur in the

next two years and underestimate the change that will
occur in the next ten.
Bill Gates

To think effectively about the future, rate of development across a wide means we tend to be disappointed
we have to recognize and overcome range of digital technologies. initially by the speed of change
our cognitive predisposition to when it comes to exponential
extrapolate in a straight line from Not every technology develops trends, only to be amazed at
past experience. The world is full of along an exponential trajectory. For the sudden acceleration after
exponential and non-linear change example, the evidence of the last a certain point.
dynamics – in everything from the 10 years strongly indicates that
rate at which technologies develop solar PV technology is in its It’s not only technological change
to the way social movements exponential phase, whereas nuclear that sometimes follows this
emerge and spread. power is not. And even technologies “gradually, then suddenly” dynamic.2
that are exponential will eventually Social movements can go
Moore’s Law1 which states that start to plateau as they reach the exponential (or ‘viral’) too.
processor speeds, or overall top of their S-Curve. There are signs Climate activism is an obvious
processing power for computers that this may now be happening with recent example.
will double every two years, is one processing power.
of the most famous examples In August 2018, Greta Thunberg
of an exponential trend in the So, the ability to make judgments skipped school for a day to sit
technology world. The exponential about where on their S-Curve on her own outside the Swedish
rate at which computing power has trajectory different technologies Parliament in protest against the
advanced over the last 50 years has currently are, is essential – but also government’s failure to act with
underpinned a similar exponential extremely hard. Our default setting is sufficient urgency and ambition
to extrapolate in a straight line, which to address the threat of climate
breakdown; 13 months later, more
Figure 1: Deception of linear vs exponential than 6 million people took to the
streets as part of a global climate
strike, inspired by Greta’s example.3

But of course, climate activism

You are here did not start with Greta: a small
number of people have joined
protests to raise the alarm about
Chaos/ global warming for decades, but the
ent
A zem
m a
numbers were low and didn’t seem
to be growing much – if at all. Greta
was a catalyst that took climate
intment activism from a decades-long phase
Dissapo
of “gradual” progress into a new
phase of “sudden” scaling.

1
http://www.mooreslaw.org/
2
https://www.oreilly.com/radar/gradually-then-suddenly/
3
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/27/climate-crisis-6-million-people-join-latest-wave-of-worldwide-protests

6 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
Lesson 2: Using the past as an imperfect guide to the present and future

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.

Mark Twain

Does history have any We often intuitively grasp for long-wave economic cycles.
kind of rhyme or rhythm historical analogies to help us Short-wave cycles are fairly
make sense of the present: the uncontroversial: it is widely
to it that can help us rise of populist nationalism today accepted that market economies
make sense of where we is compared to the 1930s; the fluctuate between expansion and
are now and what might economic impact of the COVID-19 contraction. Likewise, we take it for
come next? Certainly, pandemic is likened to that of the granted that, in well-functioning
2007-8 Financial Crisis or the democracies, a “pendulum
we cannot use the
Second World War; the notion effect” means that no party can
past to make accurate that we are living in the midst of monopolize power indefinitely.
predictions about the a ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’
future, but history does implies that there are certain Long-wave cycles are less well
accepted. In economics, they are
offer potential insights similarities between our present
often associated with the early
moment and the three previous
into the dynamics and industrial revolutions. But what kind 20th century Russian economist
patterns of change. of explanatory power do these Nikolai Kondratiev, who argued
analogies have? for the existence of 50-60 year
long ‘super-cycles’ in capitalist
In both economics and political economies.4 A more recent
science, various scholars over proponent of the idea
the years have posited the of long-wave cycles is the
existence of both short- and British-Venezuelan economist
Carlota Perez.5

Figure 2: long-wave cycles or ‘Kondratiev Waves’ since the industrial revolution

Source: Volans, 2016

4
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kondratieff-wave.asp
5
http://beyondthetechrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/BTTR_WP_2016-1.pdf

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 7
 In the 2010s, the global economy Some political scientists also direction has overtaken the
defied the expectations of posit the existence of long-wave number of countries moving in a
both short- and long-wave cycles, oscillating between democratic direction for the first
economic theorists. The post- periods of democratization time since World War II.7 Covid-19
2008 economic expansion was and periods of ‘autocratization’. is acting as an accelerant for this
unusually long and slow – until According to this theory, we trend,8 particularly where the shift
the COVID-19-induced crash are currently in the ‘third wave was already well underway, but it is
of 2020 finally brought it to an of autocratization’ – i.e. globally, not clear that it will be universal or
end. Meanwhile, contemporary momentum is shifting towards unidirectional over the decade as
long-wave economic theorists6 greater authoritarianism, even a whole.
expected the 2008 crash to mark within many countries that remain
a turning point and catalyze a new democracies. During the last
era of inclusive growth. This failed decade, the number of countries
to materialize during the 2010s, moving in an authoritarian
and as the 2020s are starting
off with potentially the deepest
economic contraction in at least a
century, theorists have little upon
which to base predictions for the
decade to come.

Figure 3: The three waves of autocratization

80 1 2 3
75 Wave Wave Wave
70
65
60
55
Number of countries

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Democratization ongoing Autocratization in (former) democracies Autocratization ongoing

Source: Anna Lührmann and Staffan Lindberg, 2019

6 http://beyondthetechrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/BTTR_WP_2016-1.pdf
7 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029?
8 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/world/europe/coronavirus-governments-power.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

8 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
Lesson 3: Prepare to be surprised

I know that history is going to be dominated by an

improbable event, I just don’t know what that event will be.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Some things we simply cannot COVID-19 is not a Black Swan: the Even then, we should prepare to be
see coming. The world is a pandemic was both predictable surprised – in both good and bad
highly complex system with so and predicted9 – yet it caught most ways – by the way events unfold
many dynamic elements that governments and businesses over the next 10 years. That means
we are nowhere close to fully unprepared. In this regard, it is designing in resilience and agility to
understanding how the system behaving a lot like a Black Swan our forward strategies: resilience to
works. Positive and negative because it seemed, from the cope with the Black Swan events
feedback loops are at work all perspective of today’s heads of that take us in the wrong direction,
around us, meaning that seemingly government and industry, highly and agility to capitalize on what
small and unimportant changes can improbable that a virus like this Volans founder John Elkington has
trigger unexpectedly big impacts in would strike on their watch. dubbed ‘Green Swans’ that have
a way that appears arbitrary. the potential to take us very rapidly
The key to lowering the risk of in the right direction.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote about being blindsided by a Black Swan
the impact that such unpredictable event (or ‘being the turkey’, as Taleb
outlier events have on the course writes) is to pay attention to diverse
of history in his 2007 bestseller, perspectives and weak signals
The Black Swan. Taleb concludes – and to treat any consensus
that, while some events are truly amongst forecasters with a healthy
impossible to predict, others are dose of skepticism.
only impossible to predict from a
certain vantage point. For a turkey,
Thanksgiving may be a Black Swan
event, but it isn’t for its butcher.

9
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-bill-gates-predicted-pandemic-in-2015/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 9
 2 Detailed analysis of key trends
across six different landscapes

10 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
 DEMOGRAPHICS
Key themes for the 2020s include: aging populations; generational
handover; population growth – especially in Asia and Africa; urbanization;
rising levels of migration; spread of non-communicable diseases.

1. An older world surpass the US median age early The proportion of the African
in the 2020s – and then pull away population projected to be over
By 2030, 12% of the global as the decade progresses. This 60 by 2030 is roughly one-fifth
population is expected to be is partly a legacy of China’s ‘one the proportion in Europe (c.6%
over 65 – up from about 8.5% child policy’. vs c.30%). This is partly due to
in 2015. That equates to more lower life expectancies in many
than a billion over 65s.10 China’s The most significant outliers to African countries.
population is ageing significantly the trend are in sub-Saharan
faster than Europe and the US. Africa and south Asia, where
Its median age is expected to several countries have a
significant “youth bulge”.

Figure 4: Percentage of population aged 60 or over, by region, 2000-2030

30
Percentage of population aged 60 or over

25

20

15

10

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Europe North America Oceania Asia Latin America Africa

Source: United Nations (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.

10
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p95-16-1.pdf

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 11
 2. Generational handover About 58% of global Millennials “Millennial Majors” because of
live in Asia, including 385 million in their unusually high number of
Globally, those born after 1980 now India – by far the largest domestic Millennials – both in absolute
outnumber those born earlier. population of Millennials in the terms and relative to population
A generational handover of political, world. The next largest regional as a whole. These countries are:
cultural and economic power is concentration is in Sub-Saharan Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Iran,
already underway and will continue Africa, which accounts for about Pakistan, the Philippines, South
throughout the 2020s. 13% of all Millennials. AT Kearney Africa, and Vietnam.11
has dubbed eight countries the

Figure 5: Globally, millennials have outnumbered baby boomers for more than a quarter of a century
Generation by proportion of global population (%)
Millennials overtake generation X
to become the largest generation
35

30

25

20
Millennials overtake baby boomers
15

10

1981 1990 2000 2010 2018

Boomers Millennials Gen X Post-millennials

Source: UN Population Division © FT

Figure 6: The eight “Millennial Majors” stand out for their substantial Millennial populations

40
Millennial population (% of total)

35 Iran
South Africa
Vietnam Bangladesh

30 Egypt Philippines Pakistan

29 India
Brazil Indonesia
China
25
United States

20

15
0 16 25 50 75 375 400
Millennial population (Millions)

Asia Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America North America Europe

Note: In bold, the eight “Millennial Majors”. The dividing lines are drawn at the value for the 20th-highest
ranked country in the world on each of the Millennial population measures

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2015. IMF World Economic Outlook; A.T. Kearney Analysis

11
https://www.atkearney.com/web/global-business-policy-council/article/?/a/where-are-the-global-millennials-

12 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
3. Population growth – people will be an important feature, while younger urban populations
especially in Asia and Africa but less than 10% of the total urban will embrace liberal values and
population will live in megacities: in will typically understand their
The world population is expected terms of scale, the future is more own identity more in terms of
to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 – up Munich than Cairo. achievements and interests than
from an estimated 7.8 billion today. nationality or where they live.
The vast majority of this population Millennials are particularly likely
growth will happen in Asia and to live in (or migrate to) cities.14 Urbanisation will also accelerate
Africa (see table below).12 An urban-rural values divide the development of new norms
will therefore be overlaid onto a around sharing: everything from
4. A more urban world generational values divide, which shared housing to shared mobility
may exacerbate polarisation. becomes more practical and
By 2030, projections suggest that
Older citizens in rural communities more appealing as population
⅔ of the global population will live in
will be more likely to espouse density rises.
cities.13 India, China and Nigeria are
conservative values and retain
at the forefront of the urbanisation
a strong attachment to place,
trend. Megacities of 10 million+

Figure 7: Population of the world and regions according to the medium - variant projection

POPULATION (Millions)

REGION 2019 2030 2050 2100

World 7713 8548 9735 10875

Africa 1583 2.009 2872 4699

Asia 4326 4654 4907 4301

Europe 747 741 710 629

Latin America and the Caribbean 648 706 762 680

Northern America 367 390 423 491

Oceania 42 48 57 75

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019).
World Population Prospects (2019)

12
https://ec.europa.eu/assets/epsc/pages/espas/chapter1.html
13
https://apnews.com/40b530ac84ab4931874 e1f7efb4f1a22
14
https://www.ft.com/content/f81ac17a-68ae-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 13
 5. A world on the move By contrast, in Africa, Asia, Latin Climate breakdown in particular is
America and the Caribbean, likely to become a more important
Levels of cross-border migration fewer than 2% of the population factor in causing more people to
have been rising steadily for are international migrants. These move from one country to another.
decades. In 2015, 244 million figures do not capture the much In 2018, climate-related factors
people (3.3% of the global larger number of people migrating resulted in the displacement of
population) were living in a country within countries. around 16.1 million people. By
other than that of their birth. In 2050, the figure could be as high
2000, the equivalent proportion This trend is likely to continue as 150-200 million.16
was 2.8% of the population. through the 2020s for a mix
In Europe, North America and of economic, political and
Oceania, international migrants environmental reasons.
account for at least 10% of the
total population.

Figure 8: Total international migrant population

400

350

300
Population (millions)

250

200

150

100

50

0
1900 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

World Europe North America Oceania

Asia Latin America Africa

Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

16
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/how-climate-change-exacerbates-the-refugee-crisis-and-what-can-be-done-about-it/
17
https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight

14 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
6. Less healthy, but more WHO notes, it is not uncommon At the same time, people in much
health conscious to find undernutrition and obesity of the world are becoming more
co-existing within the same health-conscious. Interest in
Globally, obesity is on the rise: country, the same community and wellness, healthy eating, quality
according to the World Health the same household.17 This trend of life and self-improvement is on
Organisation, rates of obesity have is also causing a range of other the rise. For many citizens in both
nearly tripled since 1975 - and this health conditions - from heart high- and low-income economies
trend seems unlikely to go into disease to diabetes - to become though, investing in personal
reverse any time soon given the more prevalent. wellbeing often still feels like a
close correlation between urban luxury they can’t afford.
living and obesity levels. This is a
worldwide phenomenon: as the

Figure 9: Adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or higher

2050 56.9%

2040 51.6%

2030 46.3%

2020 41%

2010 35.7%

2000 30.8%

1990 26.7%

1980 23.1%

20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

Percentage (%) of adults with a BMI of 25 or higher

Historical data Projections

Source: World Health Organization

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 15
 ENVIRONMENT
Key themes for the 2020s include: the worsening impacts of global
warming; water stress; biodiversity loss; soil and land degradation; and
increasing pressure on scarce mineral resources.
Potential “wildcard” disruptions include: mass migrations, conflicts or
severe economic disruption caused by runaway climate change, water
shortages or resource scarcity.

1. A warming planet contribute to 250,000 2. Water stress

additional deaths per year
By 2030, we could already be by 2030, as a result of heat Two-thirds of the world population
approaching the 1.5°C above exposure, diarrhoea, malaria could be living in water-stressed
pre-industrial levels threshold. and child malnutrition. countries by 2025 if current
Climate impacts will continue to consumption patterns continue.20
worsen throughout the decade, • Climate will also be an Already, more than 1 billion people
irrespective of how effectively important factor in causing lack access to clean water, and
governments, citizens and humanitarian funding needs to more than 2.5 billion find water
companies mobilise to reduce rise from USD $21.9 billion in scarce for at least one month
emissions. Climate scientists are 2019 to a projected $50 billion of the year. Inadequate sanitation
unable to predict with certainty a year in 2030.18 is also a problem for
at what threshold tipping points 2.4 billion people.21
will be reached, but suffice to say, • Climate-induced displacement
climate breakdown will progress is already on the rise (there This problem will be exacerbated
in a non-linear fashion. There will are millions of people by climate change as
be more extreme weather events currently displaced) and this desertification becomes a
– droughts, wildfires, tropical will inevitably have a knock- growing problem, particularly
storms, floods, crop failures etc. on impact for politics: large in Africa. The lack of access to
Sea levels will be higher, making influxes of climate refugees water and the degradation of land
storms and floods may fan the flames of the previously used for agriculture will
more destructive. nativist, anti-immigrant cause significant human suffering
sentiment in certain and force people to migrate to
Global warming will have countries.19 less arid regions. Water scarcity is
significant consequences for the not just a problem for agriculture:
economy, society and politics: • The role of climate change in the experiences of Cape Town in
destabilizing Syria, contributing the late 2010s should serve as a
• Climate impacts could push an to the origins of Syria’s civil warning for the many cities that
additional 100 million people war and the consequent influx are located in regions that face
into poverty by 2030; of Syrian refugees to Europe, growing water stress.
should serve as an early
• The WHO estimates that warning of what is to come.
climate breakdown will

18
https://www.unocha.org/sites/unocha/files/GHO2019.pdf; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/%5BHLP%20
Report%5D%20Too%20important%20to%20fail%E2%80%94addressing%20the%20humanitarian%20financing%20gap.pdf
19
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/how-climate-change-exacerbates-the-refugee-crisis-and-what-can-be-done-about-it/
20
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/water-scarcity-one-of-the-greatest-challenges-of-our-time
21
https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/water-scarcity

16 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
The way in which water scarcity The Intergovernmental Science- Once again, the issue of
is likely to play out is a classic Policy Platform on Biodiversity soil and land degradation is
example of “gradually, then and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) interconnected with other
suddenly” change. Until it reaches estimates that between $235 environmental challenges such
a certain threshold, water billion and $577 billion in annual as water scarcity and climate
scarcity is a manageable cost global crop output is currently at breakdown. Soil’s role as a store
and inconvenience, but once risk as a result of pollinator loss.23 of carbon makes it particularly
a tipping point is reached, the important in the climate
potential for chaos and conflict 4. Soil and land degradation story. Shifting to regenerative
rises dramatically. The five most agricultural practices that
A third of the planet’s land is
vulnerable hotspots for potential rebuild the carbon content of
severely degraded and fertile soil
“water wars” are the basins of the soil is a vital climate solution.28
is being lost at the rate of 24bn
Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra, While regenerative agriculture
tonnes a year.24 Soil is being lost
Indus, Tigris-Euphrates, and is gaining momentum in some
100 times as fast as it is being
Colorado rivers.22 parts of the world, it is still very
formed.25 Land degradation is
niche compared with the scale of
3. Biodiversity loss estimated to cost more than
industrial agriculture.
10% of annual global GDP in
The devastating rate at which lost ecosystem services such Meanwhile in China, tree-planting
biodiversity has been lost over as carbon sequestration and has long been used as a tool to
the last 50 years shows little sign agricultural productivity.26 combat desertification: while
of slowing as we enter the 2020s. Land degradation has also this approach has co-benefits
The current global rate of species reduced productivity in 23% of the in terms of climate because of
extinction is estimated to be tens global terrestrial area.27 the CO2 sequestered by young
to hundreds of times higher than forests, some scientists worry
the average rate over the past 10 that it exacerbates water scarcity
million years and is accelerating. because many of the plant species
being introduced use more water
than native vegetation.29

22
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/where-the-water-wars-of-the-future-will-be-fought
23
https://www.ipbes.net/system/tdf/ipbes_7_10_add.1_en_1.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=35329
24
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/12/third-of-earths-soil-acutely-degraded-due-to-agriculture-study
25
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/08/how-climates-impact-on-land-threatens-civilisation-and-how-to-fix-it
26
https://www.ipbes.net/global-assessment-report-biodiversity-ecosystem-services
27
https://www.ipbes.net/system/tdf/ipbes_7_10_add.1_en_1.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=35329
28
https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/food/regenerative-agriculture
29
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02789-w

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 17
 5. Pressure on scarce mineral Rising demand for sand is driven • On the negative side,
resources in part by rapid urbanisation – and shortages of lithium, cobalt
over time, further pressure on and copper could slow the
The current trajectory of global supply will come as a result of clean energy transition by
development will put a growing rising sea levels: as more coastal making key technologies
strain on several key mineral cities invest in climate adaptation such as batteries, solar panels
resources - from cobalt, copper, and building flood defences, this and electric vehicles more
lithium and nickel needed to will require more sand. expensive to manufacture.
supply the growing market for
batteries and electric vehicles, Lithium demand, meanwhile, is set • On the positive side, scarcity
to sand required for the to more than triple between now will almost certainly drive
production of glass, concrete and 2025, rising from 300,000 innovation – in particular
and other building materials - over tons per year to over 1 million tons bolstering the shift to a
the next decade. per year.31 As supplies come under more circular economy by
increasing pressure, producer making material recovery
In Vietnam, for example, high countries – notably Chile, a growing opportunity and
demand for sand could cause Argentina and Australia in the case necessity. Several big players
the country to run out as early as of lithium – will become a focus of in the consumer electronics
2020, according to the country’s intense international competition. industry are already acting in
Ministry of Construction.30 recognition of this emergent
Resource scarcity has the future by investing in closed
potential to act as a double-edged loop innovation.
sword in terms of the transition to
a sustainable economy:

30
https://www.businessinsider.com/global-sand-shortage-could-cause-damaging-effects-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
31
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/really-facing-battery-metal-shortage-170000022.html

18 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
 ECONOMICS
Key themes for the 2020s include: the rise of Asia continues;
intergenerational transfer of wealth from baby boomers to millennials;
the COVID-19 crisis and the longer-term prospects for global growth;
the future of globalization; the impact of technology on patterns of
production and consumption; the continued rise of global wealth
inequality; and the increasing centrality of social and environmental
factors in value creation.
Potential “wildcard” disruptions include: another major economic crisis;
a political shift in favor of strong action on wealth redistribution.

1. The rise of Asia continues global GDP will go past 50% early By 2030, the Chinese economy is
in the 2020s and continue to rise expected to be more than twice
The 2020s will see the global throughout the decade.32 the size of the US economy in
economy’s centre of gravity shift purchasing power parity (PPP)
decisively to Asia. Asia’s share of terms, with India not far behind.33

Figure 10: The Asian century is about to begin

Share of world GDP at PPP USD $

65
Forecast
60

55

50

45

40

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023

World Asia

UNCTAD definition of Asia

Source: IMF, @valentinarome © FT

32
https://www.ft.com/content/520cb6f6-2958-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7
33
https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rk8iIxXGE

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 19
 Early in the 2020s, Asia will also 2. Intergenerational wealth boomers to the generations that
become home to half of the world’s transfer and the rise of follow them (Gen X, Millennials and
middle class – defined as those in Millennial spending power Gen Z) is expected to take place over
households with daily per capita the next two decades.36
incomes of $10-100 at 2005 PPP. The 2020s will see Millennials
With this comes a significant shift overtake Gen X as the generation
in the locus of global demand: by with the greatest spending power
2030, Asians are expected to buy worldwide.35 In the US alone, a $30
more vehicles than the rest of the trillion wealth transfer from baby
world combined.34

Figure 11: Global millennial spending power is set to overtake Generation X by 2020 and will continue to rise

Forecast annual aggregate income, by generation (USD $ tn)

USD $ 25 tn

20

15

10

0
2020 2025 2030 2035

Boomers Millennials Gen X Post-millennials

Source: World Data Lab

34
https://www.ft.com/content/520cb6f6-2958-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7
35
https://www.ft.com/content/f81ac17a-68ae-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
36
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/wealth-transfer-baby-boomers-estate-heir-inheritance.html

20 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
3. The COVID-19 recession 4. A (public and private sector) Now, as a result of COVID-19,
– and then what? debt bubble (in October 2019, massive fiscal stimulus packages
the IMF warned of a $19 trillion have gone from unthinkable to
The COVID-19 pandemic, corporate debt ‘timebomb’ inevitable. Opinion is divided on
combined with an oil price war and estimated that the ratio of whether these will help deliver a
between Russia and Saudi Arabia public/private sector debt to U-shaped recovery or whether
has triggered what looks to be the GDP is 225%); 39 we are instead destined for an
worst economic crisis since the L-shaped recovery, with slow
Great Depression. Forecasts from 5. A ‘carbon bubble’ caused by growth throughout the rest
March 2020 suggest that world the over-valuation of fossil fuel of the decade.
GDP may fall by 4% or more in 2020 assets (estimates of the size of
– significantly more than the last the ‘stranded assets’ problem Given the weaknesses the global
global recession in 2009.37 vary: a 2018 study published in economy was carrying before
Nature Climate Change put it at COVID-19 hit, the latter is certainly
Even before the pandemic hit, $1-4 trillion).40 plausible, but a lot will depend on
global growth was slowing as a whether policymakers are able to
result of longer-term factors. 6. The negative impact of climate seize the opportunity post-crisis to
These include: change on both labour and address some of these underlying
agricultural productivity (one weaknesses and set the global
1. Chronic under-investment in study estimated the impact economy on a more sustainable
productive assets; of a warming planet on labour and inclusive growth trajectory.
productivity at £1.5 trillion a
2. Weak consumer demand
year by 2030, with India, China One factor that is likely to help
and low productivity growth
and SE Asia bearing the brunt drive economic growth this
driven in part by high levels of
of these costs).41 decade is the projected expansion
inequality;
of the global middle class: the
3. An asset bubble that some Brookings Institute estimates
describe as the largest that there will be 5.3 billion middle
in history; 38 class people in the world by 2030,
up from approximately 4 billion in
2020 (other estimates vary, but not
by much).42

37
https://cebr.com/reports/a-world-recession-is-now-almost-a-certainty-with-global-gdp-set-to-decline-twice-as-much-as-during-
the-financial-crisis-the-challenge-now-is-to-prevent-the-recession-from-turning-into-a-1930s-style/
38
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2126952/global-asset-bubble-will-burst-only-question-when-and-how
39
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/global-economy-faces-19tn-corporate-debt-timebomb-warns-imf; https://
blogs.imf.org/2019/01/02/new-data-on-global-debt/
40
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/carbon-bubble-could-spark-global-financial-crisis-study-warns; https://www.
nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0182-1.epdf
41
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-climate-change-economic-effects-jobs-too-hot-to-work-india-
china-a7143406.html
42
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/09/27/a-global-tipping-point-half-the-world-is-now-middle-class-or-
wealthier/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 21
 Figure 12: Top 10 countries by nominal GDP in 2030

China USD $64.2 trillion

India 46.3

US 31

Indonesia 10.1

Turkey 9.1

Brazil 8.6

Egypt 8.2

Russia 7.9

Japan 7.2

Germany 6.9

Source: Standard Chartered (estimates in trillions of international dollars by PPP)

https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rk8iIxXGE

Figure 13: A surge in the global middle class43

9000

8000

7000
Population (millions)

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2000 2010 2020 2035

Poor Middle class Rich

Source: World Bank, Kharas H

22 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
4. The uneven impact of from an already high (compared industries - notably in
technology on workers with historical averages) 35% manufacturing, textiles/apparel,
and regions in 2018.44 Other countries are agriculture and transportation
on a similar trajectory, albeit at – and locations (there will be
Estimates about the aggregate different points on the curve impacts both within countries
impact of technology on the number depending on local labor laws and between them).
of jobs in the global economy vary and the level of technology
so wildly that it’s best to take any diffusion. The current COVID-19 These trends have the potential –
forecast with a large pinch of salt. In crisis is acutely demonstrating even in the absence of a significant
any case, the focus on the possibility the vulnerability of these hit to overall job numbers – to
of mass unemployment risks workers and the knock-on create a world in which the link
obscuring two trends that are much effects of large employment between work and economic
more predictable and significant: swings on the economy.45 security is further weakened for
large numbers of people, fueling
1. The rise of the “gig economy”/ 2. Technology may not destroy anger and disillusionment that will
increased precariousness of jobs in aggregate, but it will feed into politics.
employment: Morgan Stanley destroy plenty of jobs for
predicts that freelancers could specific workers in specific
account for more than 50% of
the US workforce by 2027 - up

Figure 14: Flatter and faster

Respondents agreeing, %

“Globalization is good for my country” “The world is changing too fast”

20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100
China Turkey
India India
Brazil Brazil
South Africa South Korea
South Korea China
Turkey Russia
Argentina Argentina
Overall South Africa
Sweden Spain
Germany Italy
Canada Overall
Australia France
Britain Poland
Japan Belgium
Poland Germany
Spain Australia
United States Canada
Belgium United States
Italy Sweden
Russia Japan
France Britain

2013 2019
Source: The Economist

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 23
 5. Globalisation slows – and Rather than one single globally on agricultural firms, landowners
even goes into reverse in integrated economic bloc, what and farmers. Meanwhile, climate
some places seems to be emerging is a more change will be a major disruptor
fragmented world of regional across the board – from crop
In January 2019, The Economist blocs. In Asia and Europe most failures to damage to coastal
heralded the era of ‘slowbalisation’, trade is already intra-regional, real estate.
noting that ‘cross-border and the share has risen since
investment, trade, bank loans 2011. Asian firms made more In some instances, stocks of
and supply chains have all been foreign sales within Asia than in natural and social capital can be
shrinking or stagnating relative to America in 2017.49 Businesses rebuilt through local, business-
world GDP’ in recent years.46 that rely on intangible assets led action e.g., regenerative
and a good internet connection agriculture as a way of restoring
A mix of turbulent geopolitics and soil health on a particular farm
are more likely to continue on
new technologies is encouraging – while others require systemic
a path towards greater global
multinationals across a wide range action e.g., reducing global
integration – though the case of
of sectors to shorten supply emissions. This reality means that
Huawei indicates that we may see
chains. ‘Onshoring’, ‘reshoring’ and finding ways to support systemic
a division of the digital economy
‘nearshoring’ have all emerged solutions to systemic challenges
into two hemispheres, one
as new terms in the corporate will become increasingly urgent
dominated by the US and one by
vocabulary. For example, according and important as the decade
China, as mutual suspicion grows.
to McKinsey’s 2019 State of Fashion wears on.
report, 60% of apparel procurement 6. The “materiality” of social
executives surveyed expect their and environmental issues is The fact that it will become
companies will be sourcing more becoming unignorable increasingly difficult to argue that
than one-fifth of their total volume ESG issues are not financially
from “nearshore” sources by 2025.47 Sustainability advocates have material to businesses could also
been warning for a long time drive much more widespread and
Globalization's popularity varies that social and natural capital rigorous adoption of ESG metrics
widely by country. In India and China, are integral to the way economic and strategies in the financial
more than 80% agree with the and financial value is created by industry. This will happen unevenly
statement “globalization is good businesses. The 2020s will be across global markets, though the
for my country.” In France, Russia, a decade in which many more shift from niche to mainstream,
Italy, Belgium and the United States, businesses feel the reality of this when it comes, is likely to happen
less than 50% of the population assertion as ‘ecosystem services’ fast. Financial analysts can change
thinks globalization is good for their that have long been taken for the tools and metrics they use
country.48 Even in those countries granted start to falter. more or less overnight, so when
that have benefited most from global they decide that paying attention
integration, most people think the This trend will manifest itself in to ESG really does help them
world is changing too fast. myriad local and industry-specific generate alpha and lower the risk
ways e.g., reduced soil quantity/ profile of their investments, they will
quality will impose rising costs switch on to ESG very suddenly.

43
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTABCDE/Resources/ 7455676-1292528456380/7626791-
1303141641402/7878676-1306699356046/Parallel-Sesssion-6-Homi-Kharas.p
44
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/freelance-economy
45
https://www.ft.com/content/42aae86a-5ec5-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4
46
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/01/24/the-steam-has-gone-out-of-globalisation
47
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Retail/Our%20Insights/The%20State%20of%20
Fashion%202019%20A%20year%20of%20awakening/The-State-of-Fashion-2019-final.ashx
48
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/27/countries-that-have-benefited-most-from-globalisation-are-
the-most-fearful-of-change
49
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/01/24/the-steam-has-gone-out-of-globalisation

24 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
 TECHNOLOGY
Key themes for the 2020s include: the world is becoming more
data-driven and more automated; the disruption of mobility; food and
agriculture; financial services and banking; energy (supply and demand).
Potential “wildcard” disruptions include: a serious societal and/or
regulatory “techlash”; cyber attacks to critical infrastructure.

A brief introduction: 3. Trough of Disillusionment: at 5. Plateau of Productivity: this final

TECHNOLOGICAL HYPE a certain point, it becomes phase is when a technology
apparent that the technology in becomes widely implemented;
CYCLES question has been overhyped its place in the market and
One of the most commonplace and – both/either in terms of its applications are well-
important frameworks for thinking transformative potential and/ understood.
about technological progress is or in terms of how quickly it
the Gartner Hype Cycle.50 Gartner will mature and diffuse into the Identifying which stage of the hype
identifies five overlapping stages in a economy. cycle any given technology has
technology’s lifecycle: reached is critical for making an
4. Slope of Enlightenment: assessment of which technologies
1. Technology Trigger: the point at as the media spotlight will have the biggest impact
which a technology becomes shifts elsewhere, continued over the next 10 years. Gartner’s
conceptually exciting, triggering investment starts to pay off latest iteration of the Hype Cycle
the start of a hype cycle. as the potential for different (published in August 2019) identifies
applications becomes more 29 emerging technologies – the
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: broadly understood and majority of which are still on their
the point at which a technology an increasing number of way towards the ‘peak of inflated
starts to shift from conceptual companies implement or test expectations’, but many of which
to functional and early adopters the technology. Gartner expects to reach the
begin to embrace it. ‘plateau of productivity’ within 5-10
years i.e., during the second half of
the 2020s.51

50
https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-
technologies-2019/
51
https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-
technologies-2019/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 25
 Digital technologies can be China’s social credit system, In the absence of government
clustered into two broad categories which is expected to come intervention to fundamentally
in terms of their real-world impact: online nationally in the early alter patterns of data ownership,
2020s following local trials, is surveillance capitalism will continue
1. Technologies that enable the most prominent example of to be dominated by a small elite of
data to be more effectively a government initiative in this global firms in the 2020s.
synthesised and analysed. space. The system’s stated
purpose is to facilitate trust and Government intervention of this
2. Technologies that enable kind should not be entirely ruled
incentivize trustworthiness, but
automation of physical or out. One of the potential wildcard
many observers are concerned
cognitive tasks. disruptions on the horizon in
about how the system could be
used by the Chinese state to the 2020s is the possibility of
We will consider the impact of
exert social control.52 a societal “techlash”. Rising
each of these types of technology
disillusionment and dissatisfaction
during the 2020s, before moving
The COVID-19 pandemic has with the way digital technologies
on to a closer look at four key
accelerated the deployment of are being used to serve the
industries that could experience
surveillance capabilities in many interests of a narrow economic
particularly significant levels of
countries as authorities seek to elite could cause governments to
technological disruption during
control the spread of the virus. It shift tack quite dramatically from
the 2020s: mobility, food and
is highly likely that many of these the current light-touch regulatory
agriculture, energy and financial
new capabilities will continue to model that dominates in most
services. These four were
be deployed after the health crisis countries, to a much more heavy-
selected out of a much longer
has passed – partly because handed, interventionist model.
list of industries because of the
emergency measures always have
relatively high magnitude and On the positive side, many of the
a habit of outlasting emergencies,
imminence of disruption they face. same technological trends (Big
and partly because the pandemic
is likely to leave a lasting impact on Data, AI etc.) that underpin the
A DATA DRIVEN WORLD popular opinion, tilting the balance rise of surveillance capitalism will
in favour of safety and security also enable massive efficiency
The rising importance and over privacy. and productivity gains across
value of data - and the ability to almost every industry - though
amass it, mine it for insights and In the private sector, the 2010s these gains too are unlikely to
use those insights to influence have seen the meteoric rise of be evenly distributed. Non-data-
behaviour - has been one of the what the academic Shoshana driven businesses will increasingly
major stories of the 2010s. This Zuboff has dubbed ‘surveillance struggle to compete in many
story will continue - and may capitalism’.53 A handful of very industries. This may create new
become even more important as large companies (primarily US- barriers to entry for smaller firms
critical technological capabilities or China-based) that gather and accentuate the significant
(e.g. machine learning, data behavioural data and use this inequality between firms that is
processing power, Internet of to predict and influence future already pervasive today.54
Things) mature and become behaviour, have been extremely
more pervasive – during the successful in recent years. In the retail industry, e-commerce
2020s. These technologies will will continue to disrupt traditional
be harnessed by both businesses The fact that success in the “bricks and mortar” retail, though
and governments for surveillance surveillance capitalism model an emerging preference amongst
purposes to predict, influence and requires access to vast quantities consumers for “buying local”
manipulate individuals’ behaviours. of data means that the market is and prioritising experience may
extremely concentrated: most help to at least slow this trend in
of the world’s data is currently some regions.
owned by a handful of companies.

50
https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-
technologies-2019/
51
https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-
technologies-2019/
52
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained
53
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/feb/02/age-of-surveillance-capitalism-shoshana-zuboff-review
54
https://hbr.org/cover-story/2017/03/corporations-in-the-age-of-inequality

26 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
AN AUTOMATED WORLD becomes less valuable to 1. The Disruption of Mobility
global firms and technological
Automation of both physical and capabilities become more The combination of improvements
cognitive tasks will continue apace important. in battery performance, autonomous
during the 2020s. This will have driving and transport-as-a-service
multiple consequences: 3. It will deliver a boost to the business models have the potential
productivity of industries to cause significant disruption in
1. It will further undermine that traditionally rely on large the automotive and transportation
the link between work and quantities of low-skilled labor sectors during the 2020s.
economic security for many – though, once again, these
workers across a wide range gains are likely to be captured One forecast – from RethinkX, a think
of industries and geographies primarily by those already at tank – estimates that, by 2030, 95%
– particularly areas reliant on the top, just as they have been of US passenger miles could be
manufacturing. for the last 30 years, unless served by on-demand autonomous
there is a rebalancing of the electric vehicles (EVs).55
2. It will reshape supply chains,
as automation will mean power dynamics in the
that cheap, low-skilled labor global economy.

Figure 15: Speed of TaaS adoption

5
Trillions of passenger miles

0
17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Individual ownership miles TaaS miles

Source: © 2017 RethinkX

55
https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 27
 The implications of this would be This is an extreme – and US- Meanwhile, Bloomberg New Energy
profound for actors across the centric – view. More mainstream Finance forecasts that EVs’ sales
automotive value chain: RethinkX forecasters, e.g. McKinsey, project penetration will start to rise sharply
projects a more than three-fold growing global vehicle sales, as the 2020s progress – led by
shrinkage of revenues across driven by urbanisation and macro- China and Europe.57
the value chain, rising to economic growth, with the decline
more than five-fold for car in private ownership only making
manufacturers specifically. a dent in the speed at which the
market is growing - from the 3.6%
per annum of the past 5 years to
2% pa to 2030.56

Figure 16: Revenue distribution along the car chain in billions of US dollars
Registration
Platform Oil Electricity Car Insurance Maintenance Fees Fuel Tax Used Car Other TOTAL
Manufacturing Car Sales Rental Revenue REVENUES
Sales Tax

2015 0 291 0.03 570 228 171 59 52 111 27 0

1481

2030 64 21 41 104 43 97 19 4 0 0 ?
393

Source: © 2017 RethinkX

Figure 17: Driven by urbanization and macroeconomics, global vehicle sales will continue to grow, although at a
slower pace
Current and future annual vehicle sales, millions (Global, High-disruption scenario)

115
41 23 10
87

105

2015 2030

Urbanization and macro- Fewer private New shared Private

economic growth vehicle vehicles vehicles

Source: IHS Automotive; McKinsey

56
insey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/High%20Tech/Our%20Insights/Disruptive%20trends%20that%20will%20
transform%20the%20auto%20industry/Auto%202030%20report%20Jan%202016.ashx

28 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
Without a doubt, all of these earnings, this will also have an impact 2. The key to understanding
forecasts will be wrong about on the level of investment going the future of the industry is to
the specifics. Nonetheless, while into new technologies and business look at how new technologies
RethinkX’s analysis may underplay models), it has important lessons to and new business models
some roadblocks (e.g. regulatory teach, namely that: combine, rather than looking
approval for autonomous vehicles) at different trends such as the
and negative feedback loops (if the 1. The disruption of mobility rise of EVs, the development
shift to shared ownership really does will be exponential rather of autonomous driving and
decimate the automotive industry’s than incremental; transport-as-a-service business
models in a siloed way.

Figure 18: Global long-term passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain

100

80
Million vehicles

60

40

20

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE PHEV BEV

Source: BloombergNEF

57
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-04/electric-cars-face-a-6-trillion-barrier-to-widespread-
adoption; https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 29
 2. Food and Agriculture will radically reduce food loss and Precision biology refers to ‘the
waste.58 Therefore, the combination coming together of modern
Population growth and rising of rising global demand and information technologies like
prosperity will lead to increasing constraints affecting agricultural artificial intelligence (AI), machine
food demand throughout the production will likely prompt a learning, and the cloud, with
2020s. This will put a significant decade of serious innovation in the modern biotechnologies like
strain on global agricultural way food is produced. genetic engineering, synthetic
production, which already faces biology, metabolic engineering,
various headwinds in the form of There are two main trends to watch: systems biology, bioinformatics,
climate change, soil degradation and computational biology.’60
and constraints on the quantity of 1. Digital agriculture: this term
new land available for agriculture. covers the application to The application of these
agriculture/aquaculture of a technologies to programme micro-
The strain will be somewhat wide range of technologies to organisms to produce complex
lessened by dietary changes in collect and analyse data and organic molecules – referred to as
the developed world as more to automate processes that ‘precision fermentation’ – is what
people reduce the amount of together have the potential to will drive disruption in the meat
meat they eat, but this effect will significantly boost efficiency industry during the 2020s, just as,
likely be offset by increased meat and productivity.59 in previous decades, precision
consumption amongst those fermentation caused disruption in
joining the global middle class 2. Synthetic biology: a recent
the pharmaceuticals, cosmetics
this decade. report by RethinkX argues
and materials industries.
that we are on the cusp of
Reducing food loss and waste a profound transformation Based on the cost curves for
would make a significant dent of the meat industry, based precision fermentation, RethinkX
in this challenge, given that on rapid cost reductions in projects that beef produced in this
currently a third of food produced precision biology that will make way will become cost competitive
globally is either lost or wasted. lab-grown meat and meat with traditional beef from cows in
Unfortunately though, while alternatives cost competitive in the early 2020s and could be as
incremental improvement during the early 2020s. much as five times cheaper
the 2020s is likely, there are no by 2030.
major breakthroughs in sight that

Figure 19: Precision Fermentation (PF) disrupting more industries as costs fall

1.E+12

1.E+10
PRECISION
PF Becomes competitive in medicine
FERMENTATION
Log ($/kg protein)

1.E+08

1.E+06
PF Becomes competitive in cosmetics
1.E+04
PF Becomes competitive in materials
1.E+02
PF Becomes competitive in food
1.E+00
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: © 2017 RethinkX

58
http://www.fao.org/save-food/resources/keyfindings/en/
59
http://breakthrough.unglobalcompact.org/disruptive-technologies/digital-agriculture/
60
https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture

30 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
3. Financial services from $450 billion in 2015.62 signs that it will fundamentally
and banking Mobile money has already had a disrupt the industry. A recent
significant transformational effect analysis by Deloitte concludes
The use of algorithms for financial in parts of Africa and Asia, where that ‘applications [of AI in the
decision-making is already the mobile money revolution of banking sector] that can instill
widespread in the investment the past decade enabled millions transformational innovation are
industry. A shift from active to of people to gain access to basic rare. The majority of AI applications
passive fund management is well banking services for the first time. enable core and adjacent
underway (e.g., vast majority of As it has transferred to more innovations focusing on
funds managed by Blackrock, developed markets in Europe and increasing efficiency.63
Vanguard, State Street are already North America, the benefits have
algorithm-run).61 primarily been in terms of efficiency, 4. Cyber security/
convenience and security rather cyber warfare
Financial services firms will
than financial inclusion. Whether
increasingly harness the power of We live in an age of cyber
or not countries go completely
Big Data and AI to assess potential dependency which makes the
cashless during the next 10 years,
loans and investments. Reliance potential threat posed by cyber-
the long-term trajectory away from
on information provided directly by attacks significant. Cyber-attacks
reliance on cash is clear.
companies will diminish as investors score highly in terms of both
and analysts tap into a vast array of AI is also expected to play an likelihood and impact in WEF’s
data sources. The extent to which increasingly important role in the 2019 Global Risks Report – as
this trend will be harnessed to make retail banking sector over the next do data fraud/theft and critical
better assessments of ESG risks 10 years: by 2030, the vast majority information infrastructure
and impacts is an open – and vital – of banks’ customer interactions breakdown.64 Cyber-crime now
question. will be app-based and AI-powered. costs an estimated $600bn a year
This will have an impact both in – up from $445bn in 2014. This
Meanwhile, the global mobile- compares with a 10-year average
terms of jobs in the sector and in
payment market is on track to economic loss from natural
terms of customer experience,
surpass $1 trillion in 2019 – up catastrophes of $208bn.65
but, at present, there are few

Figure 20: Passive aggression, assets tracking an index

50
% of measured equity assets under passive

40

UNITED STATES
management

30

20

TOTAL 10

REST OF WORLD
0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019* *August 31st

Source: JPMorgan Chase US Equity Strategy & Global Quant Research, EPFR

61
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/10/03/the-rise-of-the-financial-machines
62
https://www.statista.com/statistics/226530/mobile-payment-transaction-volume-forecast/
63
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/financial-services/articles/the-ai-powered-bank-what-impact-will-ai-technologies-
have-on-a-banks-operating-model.html#
64
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2019.pdf
65
https://www.agcs.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/agcs/agcs/press-releases/global/AGCS-PressRelease-Risk-
Barometer-2019.pdf

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 31
 The costs to businesses and rapidly and increase market share. accelerate the transition to electric
governments of cyber-attacks are The International Energy Agency vehicles. Digitalised networks, in
likely to increase significantly over forecasts a 50-60% rise in the which car batteries or in-home
the next decade for a combinations combined capacity of hydro, wind, batteries provide grid services
of reasons: solar and biomass over the next could help manage the variability
5 years.67 Some analysts (e.g., of renewable electricity generation.
1. The more cyber-dependent Carbon Tracker) suggest the peak Developments in thermal energy
we become – and all the for oil and gas could come during storage systems could also play
indications are that we the 2020s;68 others (e.g. McKinsey) a significant role in improving the
will become more cyber- opt for the early 2030s.69 energy efficiency of buildings. The
dependent over the next future of the nuclear industry in the
decade – the juicier a target Though global coal demand next 10 years will be affected more
our digital systems and peaked in 2014, China, India by politics and geopolitics than by
infrastructure will be for and Vietnam are all expected technological change. During the
criminals, terrorists and states to commission new coal power 2020s, new capacity will come on
seeking to undermine the stations in the next 10 years. In stream in China and other countries
stability of their enemies. developing Asian countries, the including UAE, Bangladesh, Belarus
average age (12 years) of coal- and Turkey. Elsewhere (North
2. As geopolitical tensions fired power stations and typical America, Europe, OECD Pacific and
rise, cyber-warfare and the longevity of these, means that North East Eurasia), nuclear capacity
weaponization of information energy supply from coal is locked- will decline as older reactors are
technologies will become an in and unlikely to drop below 20% decommissioned (DNV, 2019). The
increasingly important front before 2030 (compared with promise of nuclear fusion remains
in global conflicts – perhaps 25% today). present on the horizon, but even
especially because the
fusion’s strongest advocates
chances of actual armed According to DNV GL, gas will
are not predicting a meaningful
conflict between major powers surpass oil to become the largest
breakthrough in the next 10 years.74
is relatively low. primary energy source by 2026 but
then decline towards 2050.71 Under Technologies for carbon capture,
5. Energy (supply) the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario, utilization and storage (CCUS) will
gas will increase to 24% of primary also continue to attract investment
Very few analysts a decade
energy demand by 2030. Energy during the 2020s – and could have
ago predicted quite how fast
security concerns are likely to a significant impact in specific
the cost of key renewable
mean that many countries import niches across heavy industry.
technologies (wind turbines, solar
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to At the end of 2019, 19 operating
photovoltaics, batteries) would
mitigate their reliance on pipeline carbon capture and storage
come down during the 2010s.
natural gas supplies. projects had captured a total of
Since 2010, the benchmark
price for solar has dropped 84%, 260Mt CO2. Four more projects
The 2020s will likely also see major
offshore wind by more than are under construction, with 29 in
investments in energy storage
half and onshore wind by 49%. development.75 The forward cost
technologies as a result of rising
The price of lithium-ion battery curves of CCUS are still largely
demand: CDP projects that global
storage has dropped by more unproven and the evidence from
demand for battery energy storage
than three quarters since 2012.66 the past decade does not provide
will grow twelve-fold between
much cause for optimism on
2018 and 2030.72 The battery
A key question for the 2020s is this point.
value chain is expected to grow by
how quickly those cost reduction
25% a year over the next decade, Green hydrogen, electrofuels
curves will bottom out – as this will
according to the World Economic and sustainable biofuels are all
impact when economic tipping
Forum.73 Developments in battery also expected to play a role in the
points are reached, causing oil
technology to bring costs down, energy transition during the 2020s.
and gas demand to peak and
decrease battery weight and
renewables capacity to scale
recycling of battery materials, will
66
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/this-is-how-much-renewable-energy-prices-have-fallen/
67
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-renewables-could-match-coal-power-within-5-years-iea-reveals
68
https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/
69
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2019
71
https://eto.dnvgl.com/2019#ETO2019-top
72
https://www.edie.net/blog/Machine-makers-are-leading-the-way-to-low-carbon/6098560
73
https://www.weforum.org/press/2019/09/decade-of-the-battery-sustainable-batteries-represent-the-best-prospect-for-
meeting-paris-climate-goals/
74
https://eto.dnvgl.com/2019#ETO2019-top

32 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
6. Energy (demand) demand to cheaper and less As we have already seen, the
emissions-intensive hours of transport sector is likely to see
There is also likely to be significant the day, would improve economic considerable disruption during the
change on the demand side of the performance and help 2020s. Turnover of older passenger
energy system. By 2030, industry reduce emissions. cars and light commercial vehicles
is expected to be responsible to modern vehicles with higher
for almost half of global energy In the buildings sector, population efficiency internal combustion
demand, with the remainder being growth, rapid urbanization and engines, full electric vehicles (EVs)
for buildings and transport. Across rising prosperity (which tends to and hybrids will reduce demand
all three, there is considerable come with a more energy-intensive on liquid fuels. Innovations that
scope for efficiency gains, but lifestyle) will drive up energy change vehicle ownership patterns,
whether these will be sufficient demand in the absence of other and encourage a greater use
to offset underlying growth trends factors. Cities are increasingly of public transport and shared
in energy demand remains to setting standards for energy mobility options will also come into
be seen. efficient buildings that will drive play. Transport demand can also
improvement. Measures to improve be reduced through better urban
In the industrial sector, energy efficiency include: improvements in planning and remote working.
efficiency improvements and older buildings such as installation
increased material efficiency to of better insulation; installation Road freight transport currently
promote efficient design, use and of technologies such as thermal accounts for 25% of emissions
recycling of materials such as steel, energy storage and heat pumps; from transport. While demand for
aluminium, cement and plastics and a change to lower GHG road freight transport will continue
could be enough to halt the growth chemicals for air conditioning units. to increase over the next 10 years,
in emissions from these carbon- measures including optimisation
intensive industries. Innovative use of truck utilisation, electrification
of digital tools to shift electricity of power trains, efficiency
improvements and a shift toward
renewable energy carriers will be
increasingly deployed.

Figure 21: The power to change: Solar and wind cost reduction potential to 202570

Utility-scale solar PV: Global weighted average of total installed costs, 2009-2025

5000

4000

3000
2015 USD/kw

2000

1000

0
09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Module Inverter Racking and mounting Other BoS hardware Installation/EPC/development Other

Source: IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency

70
https://www.irena.org/newsroom/articles/2016/Jun/Dramatic-Price-Drops-For-Solar--Wind-Electricity-Set-To-Continue
75
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/global-status-report/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 33
 These measures are expected 2020s. Jet engines will continue compared to the 2008 baseline
to lead to a 70% reduction in the to dominate international flight level. For inland waterways and
average life-cycle CO2 emissions of for at least the next decade short distance coastal service,
new heavy-duty trucks by 2050.76 as no viable alternatives are battery electric and hybrid
approaching readiness. That engines are in the early stages
In the rail industry, a key means that sustainable biofuels of deployment. Smart (digital)
uncertainty is how rapidly will be critical to making progress technologies will help optimise
electrification happens. Currently, on emissions reduction goals the logistics chain, both in
one-third of rail tracks are this decade, though it remains reducing port congestion and
electrified (IEA, 2019). The trend to be seen whether production in reducing distances travelled
for electrification of rail transport can scale up fast enough to meet without a cargo. Shore-to-ship
varies from country to country. demand: only 15 million litres power technologies will enable
South Korea, Japan, Europe, China of sustainable biofuels were ships to connect to the electricity
and Russia have electrified over produced in 2018; by comparison, grid while berthed and avoid
60% of their rail tracks (IEA, 2019). under the IEA’s Paris Agreement- engine emissions. Use of liquefied
Electrification of the rail network aligned Sustainable Development natural gas, sustainable biofuels
in India is likely to be complete Scenario, 31 billion litres a year and electrofuels is also likely to
by 2030.77 However, in the USA, will be needed by 2030.79 increase over the next decade.
railways are expected to remain Finally, advanced ship designs
predominantly diesel powered The maritime shipping industry with better hydrodynamics
through the 2020s.78 expects to see global growth in and more efficient propulsion
marine traffic and consequent technologies are emerging,
In aviation, notwithstanding the energy demand through 2030. but fleet turnover to such new
temporary disruption to the The International Maritime designs will take at least 10 years.
industry as a result of COVID-19, Organization (IMO) has set a
air travel for both passengers and target for a 50% reduction in total
freight is expected to drive growth annual GHG emissions by 2050
in energy demand throughout the

Figure 22: 2030 Energy demand by sector (Million tonnes oil equivalent per annum)

21%

49%
30%

Industry Buildings Transport

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2019

76
https://www.concawe.eu/wp-content/uploads/low-carbon-pathways-until-2050-deep-dive-on-heavy-duty-
transportation-executive-summary.pdf
77
https://www.financialexpress.com/infrastructure/railways/railways-to-miss-electrification-target-by-a-wide-margin-The
-financial-express
78
https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/electrification-of-u.s.-railways-pie-in-the-sky-or-realistic-goal
79
http://www.ethicalcorp.com/long-haul-getting-aviation-biofuel-ground

34 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
 POLITICS
Key themes for the 2020s include: populism and nationalism;
major power rivalry; the technological disruption of democracy;
intergenerational tensions and the rising electoral influence of millennials;
the increasing centrality of climate change as a political issue, with
carbon pricing, climate-related financial disclosures and climate litigation
all on the rise; the evolution of fiduciary duty; employment law and the
gig economy; antitrust enforcement; regulation of data and AI; circular
economy legislation.
Potential “wildcard” disruptions include: a major war or terrorist incident;
the government of one or more large economies embracing a Green New
Deal-esque reform package.

1. Populism and nationalism the fire, particularly if short-term Trust in government and other
bailouts and post-crisis policies institutions has been low for much
The rise of populism has been one perpetuate – or are perceived of the last decade. A 2017 survey
of the most marked global trends to perpetuate – high levels of of 18,000+ people across 23
of the last decade - and shows little inequality and unfairness (as was countries found that 71% of people
sign of having peaked. The long- the case following the 2007-8 agreed with the statement “my
term fallout from the COVID-19 Financial Crisis). government does not prioritize the
pandemic may well add fuel to interests of people like me.”80

Figure 23: Crisis of the elites

Crisis of the elites?

My government does not prioritize the interests of people like me 71%
Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 76%
Feel like a stranger in my own country 46%
Don’t identify with what my country has become 59%
Experts don’t understand my life 69%
Wish we had a strong leader not current elected government 58%

Source: Ipsos MORI, 2017 (23 countries, 18,000+ respondents)

80
https://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-trends-2017

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 35
 Definitions of what and who is mid 2000s, which is when One of the surprises of the last
a populist vary, which makes it support for populist parties in decade is that right-wing populism
difficult to quantify the speed and Europe began to swell.82 (the people in opposition to liberal
scale of populism’s rise. cultural elites and outsiders) has
This figure of 22% been so much more electorally
Nonetheless, several underestimates the true successful than left-wing populism
organizations have tried: strength of populism in (which pits the people against
Europe, because it does not economic and financial elites).
1. The Tony Blair Institute for
account for the way that
Global Change finds that there Most forecasters in 2009, against
populism has also infected
were 20 populist governments the backdrop of the Occupy
traditional parties that are
in power in 2018 – up from just protests and the fallout from the
not classed as populist by
four in the early 1990s.81 2008 crash, would have predicted
the compilers of the index.
For example, in the UK, both the opposite: that anger at “the
2. The Timbro Authoritarian
the ruling Conservative and 1%” would translate into votes for
Populism Index finds that,
opposition Labour parties left-wing populists during the 2010s.
in 2019, the average voter
are currently exhibiting many But, electorally, the 2010s have
support for populist parties
populist traits. Something belonged to right-wing populists like
in Europe (the Index covers
very similar has happened Trump, Modi, Bolsanaro, Erdogan,
33 countries) was 22% – up
with both the Republican and Duterte and Orban. These leaders
from 16.3% a decade ago,
Democratic parties in the US. now represent what the Financial
and approximately double
Times refers to as ‘an international
the average vote share that
nationalist movement’, with leaders
populist parties received
taking inspiration from - and
between 1980 and the early-
supporting - one another.83

Figure 24: Number of countries with populism in power 1990-2018

25

20
Number of countries

15

10

0
90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18
19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Source: Tony Blair Institute for Global Change: Populists in Power Around the World 7th November 2018

81
https://institute.global/insight/renewing-centre/populists-power-around-world
82
https://populismindex.com/
83
https://www.ft.com/content/59a37a38-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

36 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
Key implications of the continued stability (witness Trump’s It is also possible that the 2020s
dominance of nationalist handling of Middle East policy, will see the pendulum swing
politicians such as these during especially Iran and, more towards a more left-wing populist
the 2020s include: recently, the Kurdish issue) – agenda – partly driven by the
all of which makes the world failure of the policies pursued by
• A further weakening of a more dangerous place. right-wing populist governments
multilateralism as nationalist Worryingly, history suggests (e.g. Brexit, trade wars etc.) to
leaders tend to be hostile that the taming of nationalism deliver the promised boom in living
towards international institutions tends to happen only after a standards, and partly driven by the
and treaties. Eurasia Group major crisis or conflict (as in rising influence of millennial voters
recently dubbed these the 1930s/40s). Initial reactions who are more likely to identify as
nationalist leaders the ‘coalition to the COVID-19 crisis remain anti-capitalist or socialist than the
of the unwilling’, highlighting restrictive and nationalistic, older cohorts who have provided
their lack of support for global although deep collaboration right-wing populists with their
institutions as a key risk facing is occurring amongst the electoral base.
the global economy.84 scientific community.
It is too early to tell whether Whether right-wing or left-wing
• The risk of a descent into populism is more successful in
this will be able to provide
conflict: populist nationalists the 2020s, the degree of political
the foundations for greater
tend to ignore the complexity polarization will remain high (and
international cooperation.85
of the modern world and have may increase further), meaning that
little time for defending the centrists will generally struggle to
interests of allies or investing win votes and we are likely to see
money and lives to maintain more radical politicians, who are
determined to disrupt the status quo,
in power at all levels.

Figure 25: Aggregated populist votes 1980-2019

24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0
80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

The average voter support for authoritarian populists in the 33 countries included in TAP is 22 percent.
However, since populist are more successful populous countries the total voter support is 26 percent. Right wing votes Left wing votes

Source: Timbro Authoritarian Populism Index 2019

84
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/risk-7-coalition-of-the-unwilling
85
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/world/europe/coronavirus-science-research-cooperation.html
86
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/About-Deloitte/deloitte-2019-millennial-survey.pdf
87
https://www.ipsosglobaltrends.com/financial-security-youth-better-or-worse-than-parents/
88
https://www.pwc.com/jp/en/press-room/world-in-2050-170213.html
89
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/07/politics/how-millennials-could-kill-politics-as-we-know-it/index.html
90
https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 37
 2. The rising influence of (at least in terms of financial considered themselves
millennial voters – but don’t security/affluence).87 The a supporter of a specific
write off Baby Boomers most notable exception to this political party, compared with
too soon trend of millennial pessimism 38% of Baby Boomers.
is Indonesia - and with good
The 2020s will be the decade in reason: Indonesia is expected Conversely, the 2020s will also
which millennials become the to jump from 7th to 5th in be the last decade in which Baby
dominant political force in every the list of the world’s largest Boomers constitute a major
democracy. Given that there are economies in PPP terms political force - and in most
about 2 billion millennials globally, during the 2020s.88 countries they lean right. An
any generalisation about their intergenerational struggle for
political interests is fraught with 3. They have relatively low faith power is likely to be a major factor
danger, but a number of key in institutions and current in the politics of most countries. In
themes stand out: leaders (political, business, the US, for example, 2017 polling
religious). They may lean left data from Pew Research Center
1. Climate change is one of the in most countries, but this indicates that 57% of Millennials
things they worry about most: won’t necessarily translate hold liberal views (versus just
29% of both millennials and easily into electoral majorities 12% with conservative views).
Gen Z cite ‘climate change/ for traditional left-wing The equivalent figures for Baby
protecting the environment/ parties. A 2018 poll by the Boomers are 39% and 32%.90
natural disasters’ as one of the Pew Research Center found
top three issues they are most that, of US millennials, 35% By the end of the 2020s, the baton
concerned about.86 identify as Democrats, just of power in most democracies
17% as Republicans and will have passed to millennial
2. They are disenchanted and voters, but, before we get there,
fully 44% as independent.89
pessimistic about the future: expect plenty of resistance to a
A 2016 global poll by Ipsos
in most developed - and many “progressive” turn in global politics
MORI found that just 20%
middle income - countries, from older age cohorts with
of Gen Y (i.e. Millennials)
millennials expect to live vested interests to defend.
less well than their parents
Figure 26: Today’s youth - Better/worse life than parents

And which of there do you think is or will be better or worse for today’s youth than for their parents? Having enough money to live well

T Total 32% 47%

1 Indonesia 68% 17%
2 China 64% 15%
3 India 63% 24%
4 Peru 58% 17%
5 Brazil 49% 32%
6 Africa 41% 44%
7 Mexico 38% 33%
8 Turkey 38% 47%
9 Russia 37% 42%
10 Argentina 35% 33%
11 U.S 34% 49%
12 Sweden 32% 33%
13 Australia 26% 55%
14 Poland 26% 48%
15 Germany 24% 57%
16 Canada 22% 55%
17 GB 18% 59%
18 Belgium 14% 72%
19 Italy 14% 74%
20 Spain 14% 67%
21 France 11% 70%
22 S. Korea 11% 75%
23 Japan 8% 50%

Better 2016 Worse 2016

Source: IPSOS https://www.ipsosglobaltrends.com/financial-security-youth-better-or-worse-than-parents/

38 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
3. Major power rivalry important element of US-China of a major economic shock,
rivalry, following China’s so-called such as the one provided by
The US-China trade wars and the “Sputnik moment” in 2017 when COVID-19.95 At the time of
political fallout from the COVID-19 an AI system built by Google’s writing, it remains to be seen
pandemic may well be just the Deepmind – AlphaGo – beat whether the EU will ultimately
prelude for a turbulent decade the world champion (who was pull together in response
of escalating rivalry between the Chinese) at the fiendishly complex to the crisis, but the initial
world’s two largest economic and game of Go.92 Diplomatic spats response of several European
military powers. While a complete over Huawei may be a harbinger countries (unilaterally closing
shift away from free trade and of what is to come. borders; refusing meaningful
towards protectionism is not in support to neighbors) is not
either country’s interest – the US The rivalry between the US and encouraging. And Europe’s
and China are too economically China is unlikely to be the only global leadership on issues
interdependent for that – it’s also significant geopolitical story of the like climate change could
unlikely that the 2020s will see a 2020s though. There are various increasingly be challenged
return to the 1990s/2000s trend wildcards in the geopolitical from within by Central and
of an ever more liberalized world pack, notably: Eastern Europe’s ‘illiberal
trade system. democrats’.
• Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and
The likelihood of trade wars other ‘petrostates’: if the tide Significantly, none of the world’s
turning into armed conflict is slim turns on the fossil fuel era major powers is likely to stick up
but not impossible. Most likely, as quickly as some expect strongly for global governance,
the US will continue its reversion it to93 and the economies coordination and institutions during
to isolationism, which has been of the world’s largest fossil the 2020s. The UN may struggle
its default setting for most of fuel producers start to suffer, to wield influence and nationalist
its history. Having more or less they are likely to become key leaders will undermine its legitimacy
achieved energy independence – sources of instability. Indeed, when it suits them to do so.
thanks to the shale boom, the US in the cases of Russia and Iran,
is now a net exporter of oil – the US this trend is already 4. Age of disinformation:
may well continue its retreat from well underway. the disruption of truth
the world stage that has begun and democracy
under Trump. • Failed – or failing – states:
The Fund for Peace’s 2019 The issue of fake news burst onto
China, meanwhile, will continue Fragile States Index ranks five the scene in 2016. With the advent
to expand its sphere of influence countries as ‘very high alert’: of deepfakes – AI-generated video
through Central and South East Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan, or audio footage that is nigh on
Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Syria and the Democratic impossible to distinguish from real
Europe via the Belt and Road Republic of Congo. It highlights footage – the difficulty for citizens
Initiative. This will not be universally Brazil and Venezuela as the two of parsing fact from fiction will get
welcomed – for example, within ‘most-worsened’ states over worse in the 2020s.
Europe, there is already a clear the last 12 months.94
divide between Italy, which has The combination of deepfakes and
eagerly embraced the Belt and • Europe: having been a bastion social media will pose a threat to
Road Initiative, and Germany, which of stability for 70 years, Europe all democracies, but the challenge
is much more concerned about the may become a source of is likely to be greatest in countries
impact that competition from China political instability once again where media literacy is lowest and
will have on its economy.91 during the 2020s. The Brexit the use of closed communications
farce may have quietened channels (e.g. WhatsApp) is
The quest for technological Eurosceptics in the EU27 highest. This includes countries
supremacy – and particularly AI for now, but the Eurozone like India and Brazil.96
supremacy – is fast becoming an remains fragile - and could
prove vulnerable in the case

91
https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/bri-or-not-bri-europes-warring-member-states-22786
92
https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/chinas-sputnik-moment-and-sino-american-battle-ai-supremacy
93
https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/
94
https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf
95
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-euro-cant-take-its-survival-for-granted-n2l7pwcb8
96
https://www.ft.com/content/4bf4277c-f527-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 39
 Technology will also influence without finance ministries Taxes on wealth, financial
politics in other ways. The 2010s playing an active role. transactions, or carbon emissions
have been bookended by popular are all likely to feature more
uprisings that owe a great deal to • Beyond COVID-19, ageing prominently on the political
social media: the Arab Spring at populations will continue agenda over the coming decade.
the start of the decade; unrest in to put additional strain on
Chile, Hong Kong, Lebanon and already under-resourced 6. Green New Deals
elsewhere today. public services, so
governments will likely have The concept of a Green New Deal
In October 2019, the Financial Times to look again at tax policies to has been around for more than a
heralded the ‘age of the leaderless raise much-needed revenues. decade, but, from its inception in
rebellion’, arguing that social media 2008 to 2018, the idea had very
has enabled protest movements to • Tax avoidance makes this little traction outside the world
organize in a decentralized manner.97 issue worse. According to of policy wonks and think tanks.
The absence of identifiable leaders the IMF, tax havens cost Then in 2018, it suddenly went
makes these rebellions difficult governments $500-600 mainstream – most notably in
for repressive regimes to quell, billion a year in lost corporate the US, but also in several other
though some will try to turn these tax revenue. This is in addition countries. Now there is a very
same technologies into tools of to an estimated $200 billion real probability that the next US
surveillance to do just that. This a year in lost income tax President (whether elected in
tension is likely to make online revenue from individuals who 2020 or 2024) will be a Green New
privacy a hot political topic. use tax havens.98 Dealer. Meanwhile, in Europe,
there is talk of the EU’s Green
5. The politics of tax and tax Scarcity being the mother of Deal becoming integral to the
avoidance innovation, the 2020s will likely see continent’s post-COVID-19
governments experimenting with economic recovery – in effect, a
Fiscal policy action has been new approaches to stimulating Green Marshall Plan.100
notable for its absence during growth, raising revenues and
the 2010s, with monetary policy redistributing wealth. A significant The package of policies espoused
(Quantitative Easing, low or shake-up of international tax rules by Green New Dealers has polled
negative interest rates etc.) to address the problem of ‘base well with voters in the US and
picking up the slack in the wake of erosion and profit shifting’ (i.e., tax elsewhere. Political dysfunction
the 2007-8 Crash to re-start and avoidance) is possible during the in the US will nonetheless make
sustain growth. 2020s, though, given the weight of it extremely hard for an incoming
vested interests that stand to lose Democratic administration to
Fiscal policy is almost certain to from such a shake-up, progress implement a Green New Deal
make a comeback in the 2020s for cannot be taken for granted. worthy of the name: other
a variety of reasons: countries may well get there first.
The most promising initiative in
• The nature and scale of the this space is the OECD/G20 Base Ultimately, periods of extreme
economic crisis triggered Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) political polarisation can generate
by COVID-19 requires both Project, which is, in theory, meant some very abrupt shifts in
short- and long-term fiscal to deliver ‘a consensus-based public policy. Just as the 1930s
policy interventions (bailouts solution to overhaul the rules- produced both the Third Reich and
and stimulus packages in the based international tax system’ by the New Deal, the 2020s may offer
near-term and post-crisis, very 2020.99 The principal focus of the up a combination of resurgent
likely followed by new revenue- OECD’s work to date has been the populist nationalism and Green
raising measures in the digital economy, though clearly the New Dealism.
medium- to long-term). Central issues go much wider than that.
banks simply do not have
the tools to foster a recovery

97
https://www.ft.com/content/19dc5dfe-f67b-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654
98
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/09/tackling-global-tax-havens-shaxon.htm
99
http://www.oecd.org/tax/oecd-leading-multilateral-efforts-to-address-tax-challenges-from-digitalisation-of-the-
economy.htm
100
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eu-leaders-back-green-transition-in-pandemic-
recovery-plan/

40 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
 7. Pricing carbon Price levels are all over the place While the overall direction of travel
– from more than $120 a ton in on carbon pricing is clear, there
A global carbon price is unlikely to Sweden to less than $1 a ton in have been – and will be – reverses.
materialize during the 2020s, but the Ukraine. Reforms to the EU ETS Notably in Australia and Canada,
overall trend is for a greater share of mean that prices have gone up carbon pricing is an extremely
global emissions to be covered by significantly in the last 12 months contentious political issue.
some sort of pricing scheme and in what is, until China’s ETS comes Meanwhile, as of 2017, pre-tax
prices are trending upwards, albeit online, the world’s largest carbon subsidies for fossil fuels still stood
from a low base in most jurisdictions. pricing scheme by volume of GHG at $296 billion.103
emissions covered. Even after
There are currently 57 carbon There’s also a good chance that
this surge, prices in the EU (and
pricing schemes across 46 the 2020s will see the introduction
in most other jurisdictions that
countries that have either been of ‘Border Carbon Adjustments’104
put a price on carbon emissions)
implemented or are scheduled (effectively a tariff on imports
remain well below the level
for implementation in 2020. from countries with lower or
recommended by the High Level
Assuming the Chinese national ETS non-existent carbon prices) by
Commission on Carbon Prices of
comes online as planned in 2020, some countries, which may help to
$40-80 a ton by 2020.102
approximately 20% of global GHG ratchet up carbon prices globally
emissions will be priced – up from as exporting nations seek to tax
approximately 5% in 2011.101 emissions embedded in their
exports, rather than see importing
nations gobble up the revenues.

Figure 27: Regional, national and subnational carbon pricing initiatives selected: share of global greenhouse
gas emissions covered
Share of annual global greenhouse gas emissions

22%
21% 57
20%
19%
18%
17%
16% 56
15%
14%
46 48
41
13% 38
12% 37
11% 32
10%
9% 24
8%
7%
6% 21
5% 15 16 19
9 9 10
4%
3%
2%
1% 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8
0
90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Year of implementation

Source: World Bank Carbon Pricing Dashboard https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data

101
https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data
102
https://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/report-of-the-highlevel-commission-on-carbon-prices
103
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/05/how-much-does-world-subsidize-oil-coal-and-gas/589000/
104
https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/CS_WP2-Brief_FINAL-1.pdf

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 41
 8. Climate-related financial 10. The responsibilities of 11. Employment law and the
disclosure directors, investors and gig economy
managers in the post-
In October 2019, while still Bank of Friedmanite era On the first day of the 2020s, a
England Governor, Mark Carney new law took effect in California –
said that he expects climate- The Business Roundtable’s Assembly Bill 5 – which reclassifies
related financial disclosures to start 2019 statement on corporate independent contractors as
becoming mandatory within two purpose107 may have been an employees, making them eligible
years.105 Whether or not Carney attempt to forestall regulation for minimum wages, overtime
is right about the timeline, it is a by emphasising that companies pay and workers’ compensation
near certainty that at some point already can and do commit to protections. Several other US
during the 2020s, climate-related serving all stakeholders, but it states (particularly liberal coastal
disclosures will become mandatory. signals a much broader shift ones) are working up similar
in the zeitgeist that is likely to legislative plans.108
9. Climate litigation impact the way companies and
investors are regulated over the In 2019, the EU also passed
There are a number of major legislation aimed at granting a set
next decade.
climate-related lawsuits ongoing of minimum rights for gig economy
– and there has been a surge Whereas in recent decades workers, with EU member
of litigation activity in the last corporate law has largely countries given three years to
decade: almost 90% of the cases evolved in ways that increase bring national legislation into line
included in the Sabin Center for the power of shareholders, the with the directive.109
Climate Change Law’s database focus of legal and regulatory
were filed in the last 10 years.106 activity during the 2020s is likely Platform businesses like Uber, Lyft
to shift towards establishing and Deliveroo will fight the impact
While there have been some of these laws via the courts and we
greater rights and protections
successes - for example, in can expect years of wrangling over
for other stakeholders, including
2018, a group of Dutch citizens where exactly the line between
customers, suppliers, workers,
succeeded in their claim against employment and self-employment
communities and the natural
the Dutch government for inaction lies, but it’s clear that the gig
environment.
against climate change – there has economy’s honeymoon period is
not yet been a real breakthrough This will influence the fiduciary coming to an end.
ruling that sets a precedent and responsibilities of corporate
opens the floodgates to further managers, boards of directors There remains plenty of
legal action. and investors – in some cases uncertainty about how this
via new legislation; and in some will play out: will some big
Nonetheless, climate litigation is gig economy firms go out of
cases, via new interpretations of
here to stay. The only questions business? Will it accelerate the
existing mandates.
are: how long will it take for that shift to automation? Or will a new
breakthrough ruling to arrive? And equilibrium establish itself that
when it does, will litigation become enables the gig economy to keep
an existential threat to the fossil expanding whilst also extending
fuel industry or a manageable cost the rights and benefits of gig
of doing business? economy workers?

105
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/08/corporations-told-to-draw-up-climate-rules-or-have-them-
imposed
106
http://climatecasechart.com/
107
https://www.businessroundtable.org/business-roundtable-redefines-the-purpose-of-a-corporation-to-promote-an-
economy-that-serves-all-americans
108
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/gig-economy-bill-advances-in-calif-could-shape-battle-in-other-states.html
109
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20190410IPR37562/meps-approve-boost-to-workers-rights-
in-the-gig-economy

42 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
12. Antitrust enforcement 13. Regulation of data and AI Data ownership is another topic
that will undoubtedly be on the
Competition enforcement – Privacy is guaranteed to be a key agenda during the 2020s. Right now,
particularly in relation to Big Tech legal and regulatory battleground a sweeping overhaul of regulation
firms – has become an increasingly during the 2020s – with countries to give individuals comprehensive
hot topic in the EU and the US taking markedly different ownership rights over their personal
recently, with both governments approaches. The introduction of data looks unlikely, but it can’t be
imposing hefty fines on Facebook, GDPR is a sign that the EU is taking ruled out entirely.
Alphabet et al. A serious attempt privacy seriously.
to break up any of the US Big Tech 14. Circular economy legislation
firms is unlikely to succeed, but The EU’s longstanding commitment
the imposition of further fines to the “precautionary principle” With plastics pollution having
for abusing market power is a in relation to the regulation of become a hot topic in the last
near certainty. new technologies (e.g. genetic couple of years, the circular
manipulation) means that it is likely economy has shot up the priority
One key question is to what extent to be at the forefront of regulatory list for legislators and regulators
regulators will expand their focus intervention on tech-related issues in many countries. Regulatory
to other industries that are over- during the 2020s. The US will be approaches will likely include
concentrated during the 2020s. Big more reluctant to intervene, and binding targets for increasing
Tech is by no means the only sector China’s track record suggests it recycling rates, extensions of
in which anti-competitive practices has little interest in protecting its producer responsibility obligations
are endemic, but it is drawing a lot citizens’ privacy. and, in some cases, outright
of the fire for the time being. bans on particular products (for
As AI grows in importance, the example, the EU is due to impose
Outside the US and EU, antitrust issue of how to ensure it is used a ban on plastic cutlery, plates and
has garnered much less attention responsibly and ethically will straws by 2021).113
– and many governments around increasingly be in the spotlight. So
the world (particularly in countries far, the response of governments The EU and China have both
where authoritarianism and/ has largely been to create voluntary already shown clear signs of taking
or corruption) remain positively frameworks, guidelines and circular economy legislation and
committed to supporting de facto principles (e.g. Singapore’s Model regulation seriously. For example,
monopolies or oligopolies. Artificial Intelligence Governance the EU’s Circular Economy
Framework,110 the eight principles Package includes 2025 and 2030
And within the US and EU, the for the governance of AI published municipal recycling rate targets
spectre of vast foreign (particularly by China’s Artificial Intelligence of 55% and 60% respectively for
Chinese) state-backed monopolies Governance Expert Committee,111 member countries.114 The incoming
stealing market share from US/ or Dubai’s Ethical AI Toolkit).112 European Commission President,
EU companies is frequently cited As the 2020s progress, some Ursula von der Leyen, has signalled
as an argument for a laissez- governments will likely embrace an intention to introduce a new
faire approach to competition approaches that go beyond Circular Economy Action Plan to
enforcement by both business and voluntary principles and guidance. cover textiles and the construction
political leaders. sector, as part of an overall focus
on green issues.115

110
https://www.nytimes.com/paidpost/imda/singapores-governing-framework-for-artificial-intelligence.html
111
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3469784
112
https://www.smartdubai.ae/initiatives/ai-principles-ethics
113
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/27/the-last-straw-european-parliament-votes-to-ban-single-
use-plastics
114
https://resource.co/article/circular-economy-legislation-faces-final-vote-after-eu-approval-12440
115
https://eeb.org/ursula-von-der-leyen-puts-environment-first-for-eu/

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 43
 CULTURE
Key themes for the 2020s include: shifting values in relation to
sustainability and social change; culture wars; continuing progress towards
gender equality, but not without resistance; consumerism and post-
consumerism; rising levels of activism; atomization; and the impact of
technology on social norms and behaviors.
Potential “wildcard” disruptions include: a full societal awakening to
sustainability.

1. Values shifts, sustainability in times of economic crisis, but to race, religion, immigration,
and social change this time could be different, gender, sexuality, place, globalism,
particularly because of the strong nationhood and more.
The last decade has seen youth element of the mobilisation
multiple examples of non-linear that has happened in the last Globalism versus nationalism is
shifts in societal values, norms few years. The fact that so many one of the key dividing lines – and,
and cultural expectations: think of those driving this movement at present, many countries are
#BlackLivesMatter, #MeToo, the are in their teens and twenties is split more or less down the middle.
“Blue Planet effect” and youth important for two reasons: Globally, 47% of people feel more
climate strikes. Movements for a ‘citizen of the world’ than a
justice, equality and environmental 1. They have switched on citizen of their country; 44% feel
protection will likely continue to sustainability during a the opposite.116
to grow in strength during the formative period in their own
2020s for the simple reason that lives, which means they are These cultural splits map
the underlying issues have not more likely to stay engaged as imperfectly onto demographic
yet been solved and progress is they grow older; divides: in many countries, there
mostly happening too slowly to is an urban-rural and/or old-young
satisfy expectations. 2. The generation entering the dimension to these culture wars;
workforce in the early 2020s often education level is a strong
The question is at what scale and will be doing so in the midst of, predictor of people’s cultural views.
speed these movements will grow. potentially, the worst economic
Having witnessed sustainability crisis since the Great The culture wars contribute to
issues start to break through into Depression. There is every political polarisation and in turn
mainstream consciousness during chance that this will cause feed off it. Given this reinforcing
the late 2010s, it is possible that the many to double down on their feedback loop, there is a risk that
2020s will see a full-blown societal demands for system change, more clashes over identity will turn
awakening to the profound social rather than to abandon them. violent in the decade ahead.
and environmental sustainability
2. Culture wars 3. Gender equality and its
challenges we face and rising
discontents
popular demand for action from
Values divides are deepening and
governments and businesses to According to the SDG Gender
ossifying within many nations
address these. Index, no country is currently on
around the world. Polarising events
– from the Brexit vote in the UK to track to achieve full gender equality
A key uncertainty is the effect
new Citizenship Laws in India – are by 2030. The worst performing
a severe economic downturn,
both a symptom and cause of countries are in Africa, the Middle
such as the one we are now
these divides. There is no single East and Southern Asia. Latin
experiencing as a result of
issue that defines the new culture America, China and Russia are in
COVID-19, will have on this trend.
wars: they are about attitudes the next tier up.117
Historically, sustainability issues
have tended to be de-prioritised

116
https://www.ipsosglobaltrends.com/2020/02/peak-globalisation/
117
https://data.em2030.org/2019-global-report/

44 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
That said, women are expected to they see around them. We are 5. Faltering social progress
be responsible for ⅔ of the rise in already seeing elements of this, triggers rolling, but
all disposable income in the next particularly in North America, with not necessarily
decade and the employed female the rise of White Supremacy and effective, protests
population is projected to increase incel119 culture online.
by 14% globally between 2017 and Social progress is expected to
2030.118 As women’s economic 4. Consumerism and decouple from GDP growth.
clout – both as producers and post-consumerism This projection is based on the
consumers – grows, this will also fact that the correlation between
The ways in which individuals GDP growth and social progress
feed into rising social status and
measure their own status and weakens the higher GDP per
political power that may help to
success varies significantly by capita is – a trend that is already
accelerate progress on issues of
country. 70% of Chinese say observable across a wide range
gender equality.
they measure their success by of countries.
As progress on gender and racial the things they own. Only 21% of
equality continues, this is also Swedes and Spaniards agree.120 As we’re already seeing
likely to trigger a backlash from More people are starting to value everywhere from Chile to
some predominantly white men experiences over ownership – but Lebanon, this has the potential
– particularly amongst those the consumerist lifestyle retains a to fuel a global wave of anger and
in wealthy countries who feel strong appeal for those who have protest – with social media making
locked out of the rising prosperity not yet had a chance to enjoy it. it easier to bring thousands of
people onto the streets.

Figure 28: For consumer understanding, countries matter121

I measure my success by the things I own

Total 37% 60%

60%
China 70% 24%
India 63% 35%
Turkey 61% 38%
Brazil 58% 40%
S. Korea 53% 43%
Indonesia 42% 57%
France 38% 56%
Poland 38% 58%
Russia 36% 57%
S. Africa 36% 62%
U.S 34% 63%
Belgium 32% 63%
Germany 31% 66%
Peru 30% 69%
Australia 29% 68%
Italy 27% 69%
Japan 27% 60%
Mexico 27% 69%
Canada 25% 72%
GB 24% 74%
Argentina 23% 74%
Spain 21% 77%
Sweden 21% 78%

Agree 2016 Disagree 2016 Agree 2014 Disagree 2014

Base: 18,180 adults across 23 countries, online, 12th Sep-11th Oct 2016

Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2017 https://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-trends-2017

118
https://blog.euromonitor.com/the-impact-of-women-as-the-driving-force-of-shopping/
119
Incel = ‘involuntary celibate’; https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/4/16/18287446/incel-definition-reddit
120
https://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-trends-2017
121
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/About-Deloitte/dttl_socialprogressin2030_report.pdf

The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief 45
 But protesters will not necessarily group and become an inclusive protest movements now bubbling
win the kinds of concessions and popular movement. up seem to be gaining traction
radical reforms they want. 20 years partly because they fill this gap in
ago, 70% of protests demanding The potential upshot of this is an people’s lives.
systemic political change got age of rolling protests that fail to
it – a figure that had been growing deliver on the goals and aspirations 7. Welcome to your ‘onlife’
steadily since the 1950s. But over of those protesting. In some
regions, this lack of progress may Digital technologies are increasingly
the last decade, that trend has
cause some protesters to turn all-pervasive. This is already
gone into reverse, with just 30% of
increasingly violent. leading to a blurring between digital
protests now achieving success,
and physical realities. Any clear
according to one study.122
6. A more atomised world delineation between our offline
There are multiple factors behind yearning for connection and online lives is disappearing
this, including: – particularly for younger age
Globally, society has been cohorts who are ‘digital natives’. As
1. Less responsive/more becoming more atomised for augmented reality and virtual reality
authoritarian governments; decades. This has worrying become more commonplace, this
consequences for the strength of trend will accelerate.
2. The role of social media and democracies and the resilience
the rise of ‘clicktivism’: the level of economies. Social capital - a There are significant potential
of commitment required of term that refers to a broad range of upsides to the spread of these
protestors is often lower than in factors ranging from the strength of technologies: for example,
the past because of the relative interpersonal relationships to norms augmented reality is already being
ease with which large groups around trust and cooperation - applied in the retail space to allow
can be mobilised fast via social has been eroded by a number of people to see what furniture they
media; Pew Research Center factors: technology, rising levels haven’t yet bought would look like
found ‘social networking sites of geographic mobility, and the in their home, or what clothes that
distract people from issues that relative peace and stability enjoyed they are shopping online for would
are truly important (77% feel by much of the global population look like on them.
this way), and 71% agree with (unfortunately, nothing replenishes
the assertion that “social media stocks of social capital quite like a One worrying side-effect of the
makes people believe they’re disaster or conflict). ubiquity of digital technology and
making a difference when they hyperconnectivity in our lives,
really aren’t.” Conversely, some grassroots however, is a declining ability
movements may be gaining to concentrate and shortening
3. The polarisation of society strength precisely because low attention spans. Technology
makes it harder for protest levels of social capital cause people addiction is also on the rise – and
movements that initially to yearn for a sense of belonging. the consequences of digital
emanate from one particular From Extinction Rebellion to bombardment for mental health
social group to break out of that the Gilets Jaunes, many of the and wellbeing are just starting to
be understood.
Figure 29: Average world SPI and GDP per capita for 2015 and 2030121

100 35
Annual GDP per capita (US $ ‘000s)
2015 Social Progress Index Score

95
30
90
$23 25
85 3.1%
80 CAGR
20
75 $14
15
70
65 61 62
10
60
0.2% 5
55 CAGR
0 0
2015 2030
Social Progress Index Score (0-100) GDP per capita ($ ‘000s)
Source: Deloitte analysis

122
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Violence_Towards_Civilian-based_Movements_on_the_Rise

46 The 2020-2030 Operating Environment Research in support of the Vision 2050 issue brief
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