FINS3616
FINS3616
● US is 4x more efficient at producing coal but 1.5x more efficient in wheat -> UK has relative
advantage in producing wheat
MNCs
● With specialisation, global GDP is maximised
● MNC’s existence is based on international mobility of factors of production & carrying over
skills & resources to other countries
- Also relies on firm’s abilities to leverage comparative advantages by moving them
across countries
Rise of MNCs
● Knowledge seekers enter foreign markets to gain information
● Domestic customer followers trying to deliver services to customers abroad, consulting
firms set up foreign practices following their MNC clients (PWC)
● Raw materials seekers go abroad to explore raw material (BHP)
● Market seekers go overseas to product & sell in foreign markets (Mcdonald’s)
Terminologies
Revaluation/Devaluation: Value of currency is changed by the government in fixed rate systems
Calculating Exchange Rate Changes
Currency appreciation/depreciation = (New value - Old value)/Old value
● Note: %change in AUD/USD doesn't equal % change in USD/AUD
Free float: S&D Target exchange rate Market forces within Currency depreciation
set by govt, with margin around agreed against reference
Dirty float: Market central bank upon fixed exchange currency on regular
forces with some intervention if deviates rate controlled basis ->
central bank Used to ease
intervention Requires coordinated transition from fixed to
monetary policies fluctuating exchange
Managed floating rate
currencies: More
central bank
intervention than dirty
float
Dirty Float
Determined by market forces with some central bank intervention
● Smooths out temporary fluctuations by buying/selling currency on open market
Managed Float
More central bank intervention than in a dirty float
● Smooth out temporary fluctuations by buying/selling on open market
Fixed/Pegged Rate
Target exchange rate set by government, with central bank intervention
● Reduces economic volatility, benefits trade & investment
● No monetary independence - requires coordinated monetary policies
● E.g. Of fixed rate is dollarization: Replacing local currency with USD
Crawling Peg
Local currency depreciates against reference currency on a regular, controlled basis
Spot Market
FX Rate Quotations
● Direct Quote: Quoting domestic currency first
● Indirect Quote: Quoting foreign currency first
Triangular Arbitrage
The result of discrepancy between 3 foreign currencies that occur when exchange rate of currency
does not match cross exchange rate
● Price discrepancies arise from when one market is overvalued & one is undervalued
Participants in FX FW Market
● Traders, Hedgers, Speculators, Arbitrageurs
Fisher Effect describes relationship between inflation & both real and nominal interest rates
● Nominal interest rate reflect rate of exchange between current & future money excluding
factors of expected inflation
● Real interest rate accounts for effects of inflation & measures rate of purchasing power
overtime
FE states that nominal interest rate r is made of 2 components:
1. Real required rate of return a (Real interest rate)
2. Expected inflation i
FE - Real Interest Rates Across Countries
Nominal interest rate differential must equal anticipated inflation differential
● Currencies with higher rates of inflation should have higher nominal interest rates than
currencies with lower rates of inflation
Generalised CIRP
No reason to assume nominal interest rates are
constant per period
● Expression of CIRP is general & allows for
both constant & non constant expressions of
rate of inflation in country
Understanding One Period CIRP
Generalised UIRP
No reason to assume nominal interest rates are
constant per period
● Expression of UIRP is general & allows for
both constant & non constant expectations of
rate of inflation in country
UFR in Reality
Empirically, UFR does not hold up very well
● Profitable carry trade by hedge funds: go long in foreign currencies that trade at discount and
go short in currencies that trade at a premium
● Sometimes anticipated events don’t materialise invalidating statistical evidence
Financial Derivatives
● Financial contracts whose value is based on an underlying asset (currency)
- Can be used to hedge foreign exchange risk
Margin Requirements
Marked to market: Losses & profits recognised on daily basis (Daily settlement)
● Investors deposit certain amount in margin account
● Initial deposit is initial margin (Usually less than 3% of contract value)
At the end of trading every day future investors must pay over any losses or gains from day’s price
movements -> Daily settlement reduces default risk of futures contracts relative to forward contracts
● An insolvent investor with unprofitable position would be forced into default after one day’s
trading rather than losses being accumulated until contract matures
Currency options gives holder (buyer) the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified
amount of a particular currency at a predetermined exchange rate (the strike price) on or before a
specified expiration date
● In exchange, option buyer pays premium to option writer (seller)
● Call option gives right to buy pre-specified currency
● Put option gives right to sell pre-specified currency
Characteristics of Options
Expiration dates (Maturity):
● American option - exercise can happen at any time until expiration date
● European option - exercise can only happen at expiration date
Price of option:
● Premium paid by buyer of option to seller
Economic Exposure: Arises when exchange rate changes on the value of FUTURE revenues
and/or expenses, thus firm value
Currency Collars
● Designed to hedge against adverse currency movements outside
agreed-upon range
● Exchange rate changes within range are accepted as it -> However, changes outside of range
are limited to upper & lower boundaries
● Exposure converted at rate forward
Hedging with Options
Previous strategies are useful for known currency exposures
Exposure Netting
Offsetting asset exposures in one currency with liability exposures in the same or another (positively
correlated) currency
3 Possibilities:
1. Offset long position with short position in same currency
2. If 2 currencies are positively correlated, offset long position in one with a short position in the
other
3. If two currencies are negatively correlated, short (long) positions in both currencies
E.G.
● Offsetting an AUD 3.4 million receivable with an AUD 3.4 million payable
● Offsetting an AUD 2.7 million receivable with a CAD 2.7 million payable (if AUD and CAD
have a high positive correlation)
● Offsetting an AUD 5 million receivable with a MXN 5 million receivable (if AUD and MXN have
a high negative correlation)
Cross Hedging
When hedging with futures, exact futures contract required may not be available
● Cross-hedge by using futures contracts on available, correlated currencies
● To set up cross hedge, necessary to estimate historical correlation between two currencies
- Higher correlation, more effective the hedge
Operating Exposures
● Extent to which exchange rate changes cause changes in future operating cash flows
● E.G. At the beginning of 2002, the USD/EUR rate was about USD0.86/EUR. By mid-2003, it
had risen drastically to USD1.15/EUR -> Implications of dramatic rise: Profits for EU exporters
declined, profits for goods competing with US imports declined
● Operating exposure depends on changes in real exchange rate:
- If nominal rates change with equal change in price levels -> no cash flow risk
- If real exchange rate change -> Purchasing power changes -> Affects
competitiveness
Currency Swap
Agreement between 2 parties to exchange cash flows of two long term bonds denominated in different
currencies
● Both parties borrow in their home currency & swap their future cash flow obligations with
counterparty
- Cash flow = Principle + Interest Payment
- The counterparties also exchange principal amounts at start & end of swap
arrangement
● Currency swaps intended to reduce interest rate risk & currency risk
● Each party typically would have comparative advantage in borrowing money using home
currency (Can be fixed-fixed or fixed-float)
Fixed For Floating Swaps
Combines currency swap & interest swap
● Converts liability in one currency with specific type of interest payment into liability in another
currency with different type of interest payment
Most Common: Fixed for floating currency swaps
● Similar to doing fixed for fixed currency swap with fixed for floating interest rate swap
Eurodollar Futures
● Is a cash settled futures contract on 3 month, USD1 million Eurodollar deposit that pays
LIBOR
● These contracts are traded for March, June, September & December delivery -> Contracts
are traded out to three years, with a high degree of liquidity out to two years