BRIEFING

EU economic developments and projections

This briefing provides a summary of the recent economic developments in the EU Member States and gives an
overview of relevant economic projections forecasted by major international and EU institutions. Annex 1 includes
latest GDP data and forecast for all EU Member States and Annex 2 the latest inflation data and developments.

1. Recent growth, inflation and unemployment developments

According to the estimates by Eurostat, the
Figure 1: GDP growth rates (QoQ), in %
seasonally adjusted GDP for the Q3 2024
increased by 0.4% in both the euro area and EU
compared to the previous quarter. According to
available data for Q3, Ireland registered the highest
increase of GDP (3.5%), followed by the Netherlands,
Croatia and Spain (all 0.8%). On the other hand, the
most significant slowdowns in economic activity
were recorded in Austria, Poland and Romania (all -
0.1%), following by Latvia (-0.2%) and Hungary (-
0.7%) (Figure 1). Furthermore, seasonally adjusted
GDP grew by 1.0% YoY in the EU and 0.9% in the euro
area.
In the euro area, according to Eurostat, annual
inflation (as measured by the Harmonised Index
of Consumer Prices or HICP) was 2.4% in
December 2024, up from 2.2% in November. The
Note: Data for Q3 2024 is shown, seasonally-adjusted.
inflation rate in the EU was up as well, standing at
Source: EGOV’s own elaboration based on data from Eurostat. 2.7% in December from 2.5% in November (Figure 2).

Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit (EGOV)

Authors: Maja SABOL and Bo SANGERS
Directorate-General for Economy, Transformation and Industry EN
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ECTI | Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit

Headline inflation is holding within the 2–3% Figure 2: Headline & core inflation in the EU and
range, aside from a few outliers. In December 2024, the euro area, in %
HICP levels varied from the lowest annual rate
observed in Ireland (1.0%), Italy (1.4%) and 12

Luxembourg, Finland and Sweden (all 1.6%) to the

highest annual rates recorded in Croatia (4.5%), 10

Hungary (4.8%) and Romania (5.5%), Core inflation

(i.e. HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol 8

and tobacco) held steady at 2.7% in December

6
2024 unchanged from November (Figure 2).
Relatively higher HICP levels in some Member States 4
are attributed to the consistently strong contribution
from the service sector (+1.78 p.p.) In terms of other 2

main components of the euro area inflation,

according to Eurostat, an increase was recorded in 0

2022-12
2023-01
2023-02
2023-03
2023-04
2023-05
2023-06
2023-07
2023-08
2023-09
2023-10
2023-11
2023-12
2024-01
2024-02
2024-03
2024-04
2024-05
2024-06
2024-07
2024-08
2024-09
2024-10
2024-11
2024-12
the sectors of food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.51 p.p.),
non-energy industrial goods (+0.13 p.p.) and energy EU EA

(+0.01 p.p.).
Note: Solid lines: all items HICP; dashed lines: core HICP. Last
observed data is December 2024.
In November 2024, the seasonally adjusted Source: EGOV’s elaboration based on data from Eurostat.
unemployment rate in the euro area remained at
6.3%, steady from the previous month and down from 6.5% in November 2023. The EU's unemployment
rate was 5.9%, unchanged from October 2024. Eurostat estimates that there were 12.97 million
unemployed individuals in the EU, with 10.82 million in the euro area. The highest unemployment rates
were recorded in Spain (11.2%), Greece (9.6%), and Finland (both 8.7%), while the lowest were in Czechia
(2.8%), Poland and Malta (both 3.0%).

Table 1: Recent euro area real GDP growth, headline and core inflation forecasts (annual changes)

Source Indicator 2024 2025 2026

0.7% 1.1% 1.4%

Real GDP
↓0.1 p.p. ↓0.2 p.p. ↓0.1 p.p.
Eurosystem staff
macroeconomic projections Headline 2.4% 2.1% 1.9%
(December 2024) Inflation ↓0.1 p.p. ↓0.1 p.p. =
Revision from September 2024
Core 1 2.9% 2.3% 1.9%
Inflation = = ↓0.1 p.p.

0.8% 1.0% 1.4%

Real GDP
= ↓0.2 p.p. ↓0.1 p.p.
IMF World Economic Outlook
Headline 2.4% 2 2.1% 2.0%
(January 2025)
Inflation = ↑0.1 p.p. =
Revision from October 2024
Core
n/a n/a n/a
Inflation

0.8% 1.3% 1.6%

European Commission Real GDP
= ↓0.1 p.p. n.a.

1
The ECB’s measure of core inflation excludes all food and energy.
2
Forecast of October 2024 with revision of July 2024.

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Source Indicator 2024 2025 2026

(November 2024) Headline 2.4% 2.1% 1.9%

Revision from May 2024 Inflation ↓0.1 p.p. = n.a.

Core 3 2.9% 2.4% 2.0%

Inflation ↑0.2 p.p. ↑0.3 p.p. n.a.

0.8% 1.3% 1.5%

Real GDP
↑0.1 p.p. = n.a.
OECD (December 2024) Headline 2.4% 2.1% 2.0%
Revision from September 2024 Inflation = = n.a.

Core 4 2.9% 2.4% 2.0%

Inflation ↑0.1 p.p. ↑0.2 p.p. n.a.

Notes: The ECB, the European Commission and the OECD use different measures of core inflation, see footnotes 1, 2 and 3. The table shows
percentage point (p.p.) changes in the estimates since the previous forecasts. An upward pointing arrow represents a positive revision in
the estimate, a downward pointing arrow represents instead a negative correction.
Sources: ECB staff macroeconomic projections December 2024, IMF January 2025 World Economic Outlook, European Commission
Autumn 2024 forecast, OECD Interim Economic Outlook September 2024.

2. Latest economic forecasts

2.1. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
According to the IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2025 edition, growth in the euro area is
expected to increase from 1.0% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026. These projections are slightly lower than the
growth forecasts of the EU (1.4% and 1.7%, respectively).
However, compared to the October 2024 Figure 3: Evolution of 2025 growth projections, in %
edition of WEO, these projections were revised
slightly down by 0.2 p.p. for 2025 and 0.1 p.p.
for 2026. While growth projections for the euro
area were revised downward by a total of 0.7 p.p.
since January 2024, other regions, in particular the
United States and China, experienced upward
revisions (Figure 3). The IMF attributes the
downward revision to the lower growth than
expected at the end of 2024, especially in
manufacturing. Additionally, the ongoing
geopolitical tensions and the increase in political
and policy uncertainty played a part in the lower-
than-expected growth outlook for 2025. Despite
this, the IMF argues that stronger domestic Notes: X-axis shows the months the World Economic Outlook is
demand, loosening of financial conditions, published. AEs = advanced economies; EMDEs = emerging markets
and development countries.
improvements in confidence, and lower Source: IMF.
uncertainty will lead to growth picking up in 2026.

3 The European Commission’s measure of core inflation excludes unprocessed food and energy. Variations are presented between estimates from
May 2024 and November 2023.
4 HICP excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco.

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Headline inflation is expected to return to target by 2026 in the euro area. In 2025, it is expected to be
around 2.1% and returned to the 2% target in course of 2026. Compared to the October edition, the
estimation for 2025 was revised upward by 0.1 p.p., which resulted in a delay in reaching the ECB’s target of
2%. The IMF notes that while core inflation has returned to or fallen below trend, services price inflation in
the euro area remains sticky with levels above pre-COVID-19 pandemic averages.
The IMF considers the near-term and medium term risks tilted to the downside in Europe. In particular,
the intensification of protectionist policies pose a risk on growth in the near and medium term. The high
policy uncertainty and the challenges in the energy sector in Europe are downside risks in the near-term.
These risks could translate into renewed inflationary pressures, which could lead to higher policy rates set
by central banks. Additionally, possible escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to renewed spikes in
commodity prices and rise in inflation. However, the IMF also notes that more favourable outcomes for
global growth are plausible if uncertainty is reduced, confidence improves, and structural reforms are
implemented.

2.2. European Central Bank (ECB)

According to the latest Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections 5 (December 2024), “The euro area
economy is set to continue its gradual recovery over the coming years, amid significant geopolitical and policy
uncertainty. Although growth resumed at a moderate pace in the course of 2024, recent indicators suggest a
weakening of growth in the short term, with ongoing subdued consumer confidence and high uncertainty likely
to reinforce households’ saving incentives. Nevertheless, the conditions are in place for economic growth to
strengthen again”.
Overall, annual GDP growth is forecasted at 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. This
represent a 0.1 p.p. downward revision from the September 2024 estimates for 2024 and 2026 as well as a
0.2 p.p. downward revision for 2025 (Figure 4). This is mostly due to revised data on investments for the first
half of 2024, expectations of more subdued export growth in 2025 and a slight cut in the forecasted growth
of domestic demand in 2026. The projections still foresee an increase in real growth over the medium-term
due to stronger consumption, foreign demand and the fade out of the effects of previous monetary
tightening, further boosted by the ongoing cuts in policy rates.
Headline inflation is expected to moderate further, falling from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, 2.1%
in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 (Figure 5). Notably, the outlook has only been revised downwards by 0.1 p.p.
relative to the September projections mostly due to negative data surprises and lower oil and electricity
prices assumptions. Inflation is still expected to "hover around" the 2% target by the end of the second
quarter of 2025. Until then, energy inflation is expected to decline off the back of falling oil and gas prices
until 2027, when new climate change mitigation measures are expected to lead to a pick-up in inflation.

5 The ECB publishes its Eurosystem staff projections four times a year. In their June and December publications, the ECB publishes projection
updates for all the EA countries, while the March and September publications are only interim and include projection update only for the entire
EA (but not for each country individually). For consistency purposes, the briefing text covers the newest available Eurosystem staff projections
publication, while the Annex tables refer to the latest publication, where all the country specific projections are provided (i.e. June and
December). Please also note, that country-specific ECB projections for all the EA countries are published two weeks after the main projection
document publication.

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Core inflation is also set to start declining in early 2025 due to the fading away of the indirect effects of
past energy price shocks, labour cost pressures as well as lagged impacts from previous monetary policy
tightening. This is expected to lead to a decline in the otherwise persistent services inflation. Though
disinflationary, core inflation is nevertheless projected to remain over headline inflation throughout the
project horizon. Relative to the September forecasts, the outlook for core inflation has been revised (0.1 p.p.
downwards) only for 2026.

Figure 4: Euro area real GDP growth (Q-on-Q percentage changes, seasonally and working day-adjusted)

Notes: Historical data may differ from the latest Eurostat publications owing to data releases after the cut-off date for the projections.
The vertical line indicates the start of the current projection horizon. The ranges shown around the central projections provide a
measure of the degree of uncertainty and are symmetric by construction. They are based on past projection errors, after adjustment
for outliers. The bands, from darkest to lightest, depict the 30%, 60% and 90% probabilities that the outcome of real GDP growth will
fall within the respective intervals. Source: ECB.

Nominal wage growth has started to decline and is expected to continue easing in coming years as
the need to compensate for inflation in a tight labour market fades. Productivity growth is projected to
contribute to a significant further moderation in pressures from labour costs. Additionally, domestic price
pressures are expected to weaken as profit growth, though declining, should provide a buffer to absorb
higher labour costs, especially in the short term, before recovering over the projection horizon Overall, the
outlook is for a notable decline in unit labour costs to 2.0% in 2027. They remain however above their
historical average of 1.8%.
Labour markets continue to be resilient, despite some cooling in employment growth relative to
recent years. Labour productivity is also expected to pick up until 2026 yet remaining below historical
trends. Moreover, the growth is labour productivity is expected to be slower than originally foreseen in
September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable over time and to reach a new historical

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low of 6.1% in 2027. This represents an overall downward revision of 0.1 p.p. on average for the path of the
unemployment rate for all years relative to the September forecasts.

Figure 5: Euro area HICP inflation (left) and its decomposition (right), annual percentage changes,
percentage points

Notes: The vertical line indicates the start of the current projection horizon. The ranges shown around the central projections for HICP
inflation are based on past projection errors, after adjustment for outliers. The bands, from darkest to lightest, depict the 30%, 60%
and 90% probabilities that the outcome of HICP inflation will fall within the respective intervals.
Source: ECB.

2.3. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

According to the OECD Economic Outlook
Figure 6: Policy interest rates in advanced economies (%)
(December 2024), in the euro area, GDP
growth is projected to be 0.8% in 2024 and
increase to 1.3% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026
respectively. Compared to the previous
interim outlook released in September 2024,
core inflation projections for 2024 and 2025
are revised slightly upward by 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%
in 2024 and by 0.2 p.p. to 2.4% in 2025. In 2026
core and headline inflation is projected to
reach target of 2.0%. However, the OECD notes
that it might take longer for inflation to reach
the target as disinflation in services is
Notes: Figure shows the midpoint of the federal funds target range for progressing more slowly. In the euro area,
the US and the deposit facility rate for the euro area. year-on-year services price inflation will need
Source: OECD.
to decline by more than 1 p.p. to reach ECB’s
target. Additionally, policy rates are projected
to continue to decline in 2024 and 2025 in the euro area (Figure 6). The OECD notes that the spending of
Recovery and Resilience Facility funds combined with the lower policy interest rates will increase private
investment. Additionally, tight labour markets and the ongoing disinflation will support private
consumption. However, according to the OECD, the necessary fiscal tightening will damp growth in some
Member States.

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According to the OECD, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook. In particular, the
geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainty are two important near-term risks (Figure 7). Geopolitical
conflicts in the Middle East could potentially pose a risk to the security of oil supplies from the region, which
could in turn increase the global inflation through higher oil prices. Furthermore, trade policy uncertainty
has increased in recent months, as well as the number of import-restrictive measures implemented by the
advanced economies. Other downside risks are potential deviations from the expected disinflation path and
financial vulnerabilities such as high debt levels, stretched asset valuations, declining credit quality of some
borrowers (especially in the commercial real estate sector) and the increasing scale of interconnectedness
of non-banks with the economy (especially in the euro area). However, the OECD notes that positive
surprises could arise due to some uncertain factors such as higher-than-expected consumer confidence, an
earlier-than-expected resolution to major geopolitical conflicts, and stronger-than-expected labour force
growth.

Figure 7: Geopolitical risks (left) and trade policy uncertainty (right)

Notes: Geopolitical risks based on war threats, military build-ups, nuclear threats, terror threats, beginning of war, escalation of war,
and terror acts. The trade policy uncertainty index is based on automated text searches of the electronic archives of seven newspapers.
Both updates as of 20 November 2024.
Source: OECD.

2.4. European Commission (Commission)

According to the Commission’s Autumn 2024 Economic Forecasts (November 2024) the EU growth
resumed at the beginning of 2024. Overall, the Commission expects GDP to grow at 0.9% in the EU and
0.8% in 2024 (0.1 percentage points lower than previosuly foreseen for the EU, unchanged for the euro area),
followed by a stronger rebound of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 for the EU. For the euro area, growth in
2025 and 2026 is predicted to be slightly milder, respectively at 1.3% and 1.6%. The moderate
improvements in the economic outlook seem to be sustained by a pick-up in domestic demand and the
ongoing disiflationary process. Real household disposable incomee is growing yet given the recent
inflation episode it seems that households are saving an increasing portion of their income.
Overall, headline inflation the euro area is expected to halve relative to the 2023 levels of 5.4% to
2.4% in 2024. The disinflationary process, though currently slowing down following a pick-up in energy
prices, is forecasted to bring headline inflation to 2.1% in 2025 before falling below target in 2026 at
2.6%. For the EU as a whole, the Commission forecasts an even stronger decline of headline inflation
from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, 2.4% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. The forecast notes that there has
been a moderation of inflation of non-energy goods in 2024, meaning that the disinflationary contribution
from non-energy goods is expected to fade, and most of the contribution to bring down headline inflation

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will have to come from services inflation which remains elevated and broad-based in annual terms (around
4%). Consequently, core inflation, which in the euro area is now forecasted to be 0.25 percentage points
higher for 2024 and 2025 than in the Spring forecast.
The labour market continues to show a robust standing in 2024, despite signs of loosening.
Employment growth appears to be slowing down after hitting the highest historical level whereas
unemployment has reached a record low of 5.9% in October. On aggregate, yearly unemployment figures
are expected to remain relatively stable for both the euro area (6.5% in 2024, falling to 6.3% in 2025 and
2026) and the EU as a whole (6.1 in 2024 moving down to 5.9% for both 2025 and 2026). Productivity is
forecasted to stagnate in 2024 before rebounding slightly in 2025 and 2026. Even there, however, it is
expected to remain subdued reflecting weak innovation and business dynamism. After peaking in 2023,
wage growth continues “at a healthy pace” though expected to moderate in 2025 and 2026. It still remains
above inflation to ensure recovery in real terms.
The EU (and euro area) government deficit is estimated to be broadly stable, slightly declining from
-3.1% of GDP in 2024 to -3.0% in 2025 and -2.9% in 2026 (for the euro area: -3% in 2024, -2.9% in 2025
and -2.8% in 2026). Relative to 2023, the EU general government deficit is thus expected to fall by 0.4
percentage points due to windfall revenue and fiscal consolidation. Budgetary restraint at national level
contributes to the moderation in 2025 whereas economic growth seems to be driving the marginal
reduction in 2026. 10 Member States (RO, PL, FR, BE, SK, HU, AT, MT, IT, FI) are expected to exceed the 3%
deficit/GDP ceiling in 2024. This number is set to remain stable in 2025, with LV taking the place of FI.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio for the EU is expected to slightly increase from 82.1% in 2023 to 83.4%
in 2026 (from 88.9% in 2023 to 90% in 2026 in the euro area). It still remains below the 92% peak
recorded at the end of 2020 (99% in the euro area). The increase in public debt ratios reflects the high level
of public deficits, which are not neutralised by inflationary developments anymore in the form of higher
nominal growth as well as higher debt servicing burdens off the back of rising interest rates. Primary deficits
continue to have a drag on debt dynamics. There remains broad heterogeneity in the developments of
public debt ratios. By end-2026, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise by more than 1 percentage point
in 16 Member States yet for most Member States the debt ratios are projected to be lower than in 2020.
The fiscal stance in 2024 turned contractionary off the back of the fall in EU-financed expenditure and
the phase out of housing tax credits in Italy. It is expected to be neutral in 2025 (slightly contractionary
in the case of the euro area), with higher public investment (including RRF) offsetting the fall in primary net
expenditure. However, as the forecasts do not account for fiscal adjustment under the new economic
governance framework, the Commission indicates that “proper implementation of those plans would imply a
slightly contractionary EU fiscal stance in 2026 (by around ¼% of GDP)”.

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Figure 8: Public debt in EU Member States in 2019 and 2024, as % GDP

200%
153%
180%
160%
137%
140%
96%102% 113%
120% 103%
100% 66% 83% 82%89%
75%80%
80% 57%59%63% 67%
60% 42%43%43%48%50%52%55%
33%38%
40% 23%25%28%31%
20%
0%
EE BG LU DK SE LT IE NL CZ LV MT RO PL HR SK DE CY SL HU AT FI PT ES BE FR IT EL EU EA

2019 2024

Source: EGOV’s elaboration based on Eurostat and European Commission Autumn 2024 economic forecast.

The Commission forecasts and the overall economic outlook are affected by uncertainty. The
developments of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could weigh on growth by exposing the EU to
geopolitical risks and threatening its energy security. The EU’s sluggish productivity performance could
undermine wage developments whereas delays in RRF roll-out and the implementation of fiscal
consolidation measures under the new economic governance framework may be conducive to an even
more restrictive fiscal stance than expected. Natural disasters and climate change continue to represent a
major risk for the EU’s economy. The forecasts also note that “A further increase in protectionist measures by
trading partners could weigh on global trade, with negative impact on the EU's highly open economy”.

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Contact: [email protected]

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Annex 1: EU Gross domestic product, in %

Eurostat* (01/2025) EC (11/2024) IMF (10/2024) ECB (12/2024) OECD (12/2024)
2021 2022 2023 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2025 2026 2027 2024 2025 2026
BE 6,2 4,2 1,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 1,1 1,2 1,5 1,4 1,1 1,2 1,2 1,4 1,2 0,9 1,2 1,4
DE 3,7 1,4 -0,3 0,2 -0,3 0,1 -0,1 0,7 1,3 –0,3** –0,2** 0,3** 0,2 0,8 0,9 0,0 0,7 1,2
EE 7,2 0,1 -3,0 -0,2 0,1 0,0 -1,0 1,1 2,6 –3,0 –0,9 1,6 1,6 2,9 2,9 -0,9 1,7 2,7
IE 16,3 8,6 -5,5 0,6 -0,3 3,5 -0,5 4,0 3,6 –5,5 –0,2 2,2 4,0 4,5 3,7 -0,5 3,7 3,5
EL 8,7 5,7 2,3 0,1 1,2 0,3 2,1 2,3 2,2 2,0 2,3 2,0 2,5 2,3 2,0 2,3 2,2 2,5
ES 6,7 6,2 2,7 0,9 0,8 0,8 3,0 2,3 2,1 2,7** 3,1** 2,3** 2,5 1,9 1,7 3,0 2,3 2,0
FR 6,9 2,6 0,9 0,2 0,2 0,4 1,1 0,8 1,4 1,1** 1,1** 0,8** 0,9 1,3 1,3 1,1 0,9 1,0
HR 12,6 7,3 3,3 0,5 1,0 0,8 3,6 3,3 2,9 3,1 3,4 2,9 3,3 3,0 2,3 3,7 3,0 2,8
IT 8,9 4,7 0,7 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,7 1,0 1,2 0,7** 0,6** 0,7** 0,8 1,1 0,9 0,5 0,9 1,2
CY 11,4 7,4 2,6 1,7 0,1 1,0 3,6 2,8 2,5 2,5 3,3 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,0 : : :
LV 6,9 1,8 1,7 -0,1 -0,3 -0,2 0,0 1,0 2,1 –0,3 1,2 2,3 2,1 3,0 3,3 -0,3 1,9 2,5
LT 6,4 2,5 0,3 1,1 0,3 1,2 2,2 3,0 3,0 –0,3 2,4 2,6 3,1 3,1 3,0 2,4 3,1 2,8
LU 7,2 1,4 -1,1 0,3 0,6 0,2 1,2 2,3 2,2 –1,1 1,3 2,7 2,0 2,5 2,5 1,2 2,3 2,4
MT 13,2 4,3 6,7 3,0 0,8 0,6 5,0 4,3 4,3 7,5 5,0 4,0 3,9 3,6 3,4 : : :
NL 6,3 5,0 0,1 -0,3 1,1 0,8 0,8 1,6 1,5 0,1** 0,9** 1,6** 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,9 1,6 1,6
AT 4,8 5,3 -1,0 0,2 -0,2 -0,1 -0,6 1,0 1,4 –0,8 –0,6 1,1 1,1 1,6 1,3 -0,5 1,1 1,4
PT 5,6 7,0 2,5 0,6 0,2 0,2 1,7 1,9 2,1 2,3 1,9 2,3 2,2 2,2 1,7 1,7 2,0 2,0
SI 8,4 2,7 2,1 -0,2 0,1 0,3 1,4 2,5 2,6 2,1 1,5 2,6 2,2 2,8 2,4 1,1 2,6 2,6
SK 5,7 0,4 1,4 0,7 0,2 0,3 2,2 2,3 2,5 1,6 2,2 1,9 2,1 1,8 2,3 2,3 2,4 2,1
FI 2,7 0,8 -1,2 0,4 0,1 0,3 -0,3 1,5 1,6 –1,2 0,0 0,0 0,8 1,8 1,3 -0,3 1,6 1,7
EA 6,3 3,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,4 0,8 1,3 1,6 0,4** 0,8** 1,0** 1,1 1,4 1,3 0,8 1,3 1,5
BG 7,8 4,0 1,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 2,4 2,9 3,0 1,8 2,3 2,5 : : : 2,3 2,8 2,6
CZ 4,0 2,8 -0,1 0,4 0,2 0,5 1,0 2,4 2,7 –0,1 1,1 2,3 : : : 1,0 2,4 2,6
DK 7,4 1,5 2,5 -0,6 1,2 0,9 2,4 2,5 1,8 2,5 1,9 1,6 : : : 2,8 2,5 1,7
HU 7,1 4,3 -0,9 0,4 -0,2 -0,7 0,6 1,8 3,1 –0,9 1,5 2,9 : : : 0,6 2,1 2,9
PL 6,9 5,3 0,1 0,6 1,2 -0,1 3,0 3,6 3,1 0,1** 2,8** 3,5** : : : 2,8 3,4 3,0
RO 5,5 4,0 2,4 -0,4 0,1 0,0 1,4 2,5 2,9 2,1 1,9 3,3 : : : 1,2 2,6 3,1
SE 5,9 1,5 -0,2 0,6 0,0 0,3 0,3 1,8 2,6 –0,2 0,9 2,4 : : : 0,6 1,8 2,8
EU 6,3 3,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,4 0,9 1,5 1,8 0,6** 1,0** 1,4** : : : : : :
Notes: *Year-on-year GDP growth is provided for 2021, 2022 and 2023, while quarter-on-quarter changes are provided for 2024 Q1 to 2024 Q3. Eurostat data extracted on 17 January 2025. **Values
from the IMF World Economic Outlook Update January 2025. The forecast data by EC, IMF, OECD and ECB are the baseline scenarios.

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 Latest EU economic developments and projections

Annex 2: EU HICP Inflation (annual rate of change, in %)

Eurostat* (01/2025) EC (11/2024) IMF (10/2024) ECB (12/2024) OECD (12/2024)
2021 2022 2023 2024 Q2 2023 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2025 2026 2027 2024 2025 2026
BE 3,2 10,3 2,3 5,4 4,3 4,4 4,4 2,9 1,9 2,3 4,3 2,1 2,9 1,3 1,7 4,3 2,9 2,1
DE 3,2 8,7 6 2,5 1,8 2,8 2,4 2,1 1,9 6,0 2,4 2,0 2,4 2,1 1,9 2,4 2,0 1,9
EE 4,5 19,4 9,1 2,8 3,2 4,1 3,6 3,6 2,4 9,1 3,4 2,0 4,5 3,6 2,6 3,4 3,8 2,8
IE 2,4 8,1 5,2 1,5 0 1 1,4 1,9 1,8 5,2 1,7 1,8 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,5 1,9 1,8
EL 0,6 9,3 4,2 2,5 3,1 2,9 3,0 2,4 1,9 4,2 2,9 2,1 2,5 2,2 2,5 3,0 2,7 2,1
ES 3 8,3 3,4 3,6 1,7 2,8 2,8 2,2 2,0 3,4 2,8 1,9 2,1 1,7 2,4 2,8 2,1 2,0
FR 2,1 5,9 5,7 2,5 1,4 1,8 2,4 1,9 1,8 5,7 2,3 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,9 2,4 1,6 1,8
HR 2,7 10,7 8,4 3,5 3,1 4,5 4,0 3,4 2,0 8,4 4,0 2,8 3,5 2,5 3,0 3,9 3,3 2,2
IT 1,9 8,7 5,9 0,9 0,7 1,4 1,1 1,9 1,7 5,9 1,3 2,1 1,5 1,5 2,0 1,2 2,1 2,0
CY 2,3 8,1 3,9 3 1,6 3,1 2,2 2,1 2,0 3,9 2,2 2,0 1,9 2,1 2,0 : : :
LV 3,2 17,2 9,1 1,5 1,6 3,4 1,2 2,2 2,2 9,1 1,4 2,2 1,4 1,5 2,1 1,2 2,0 2,1
LT 4,6 18,9 8,7 1 0,4 1,9 0,9 1,7 1,6 8,7 0,9 2,4 2,3 2,6 2,6 0,9 2,3 2,4
LU 3,5 8,2 2,9 2,8 0,8 1,6 2,3 2,4 1,8 2,9 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,1 1,9 2,3 2,4 1,9
MT 0,7 6,1 5,6 2,2 2,1 1,8 2,5 2,2 2,0 5,6 2,7 2,5 2,2 2,0 2,0 : : :
NL 2,8 11,6 4,1 3,4 3,3 3,9 3,2 2,4 1,9 4,1 3,2 2,3 3,2 2,8 2,8 3,2 2,7 2,5
AT 2,8 8,6 7,7 3,1 1,8 2,1 2,9 2,1 1,7 7,7 3,0 2,5 2,4 2,2 2,0 2,6 2,4 1,7
PT 0,9 8,1 5,3 3,1 2,6 3,1 2,6 2,1 1,9 5,3 2,5 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,7 2,2 2,1
SI 2 9,3 7,2 1,6 0,7 2 2,1 3,2 2,1 7,4 2,0 2,7 2,2 2,2 2,1 1,9 2,4 2,6
SK 2,8 12,1 11 2,4 2,9 3,2 3,1 5,1 3,0 11,0 2,8 5,1 5,0 3,6 2,6 3,2 4,4 2,7
FI 2,1 7,2 4,3 0,5 1 1,6 1,0 2,0 1,8 4,3 0 0 1,9 1,5 1,7 0,9 1,8 1,8
EA 2,6 8,4 5,4 2,5 1,7 2,4 2,4 2,1 1,9 5,4 2,4 2,0 2,1 1,9 2,1 2,4 2,1 2,0
BG 2,8 13 8,6 2,8 1,5 2,1 2,5 2,3 2,9 8,6 2,8 2,6 : : : 2,4 2,7 2,5
CZ 3,3 14,8 12 2,2 2,8 3,3 2,7 2,4 2,0 10,7 2,3 2,0 : : : 2,4 2,3 2,0
DK 1,9 8,5 3,4 1,8 1,2 1,8 1,3 1,9 1,7 3,4 1,8 2,2 : : : 1,4 2,0 2,0
HU 5,2 15,3 17 3,6 3 4,8 3,8 3,6 3,2 17,1 3,8 3,5 : : : 3,8 3,3 2,9
PL 5,2 13,2 10,9 2,9 4,2 3,9 3,8 4,7 3,0 11,4 3,9 4,5 : : : 3,8 5,0 3,9
RO 4,1 12 9,7 5,3 4,8 5,5 5,5 3,9 3,6 10,4 5,3 3,6 : : : 6,1 4,1 3,0
SE 2,7 8,1 5,9 1,4 1,2 1,6 1,9 1,5 1,8 5,9 2,1 2,0 : : : 2,8 0,8 1,9
EU 2,9 9,2 6,4 2,6 2,1 2,7 2,6 2,4 2,0 6,3 2,6 2,3 : : : : : :
Notes: *Average annual rate of HICP change is provided for 2021. 2022 and 2023, while information of annual rate of HICP change for the last month of the quarter is provided for 2024 Q2 to 2024
Q4. Eurostat data extracted on 20 January 2025.

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