Scribd
Upload
7 views

Deciding_Individual_Exercise_Solution

The document outlines a step-by-step solution for evaluating a disease (Disease X) using a test (Test A) through a 2x2 contingency table. It calculates the disease prevalence, true positive rate, and false positive rate, and applies Bayes' Theorem to determine the probability of disease given positive and negative test results. Recommendations are provided based on the calculated probabilities, suggesting continued consideration of the diagnosis in both scenarios.

Uploaded by

freddiewu1
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
7 views

Deciding_Individual_Exercise_Solution

The document outlines a step-by-step solution for evaluating a disease (Disease X) using a test (Test A) through a 2x2 contingency table. It calculates the disease prevalence, true positive rate, and false positive rate, and applies Bayes' Theorem to determine the probability of disease given positive and negative test results. Recommendations are provided based on the calculated probabilities, suggesting continued consideration of the diagnosis in both scenarios.

Uploaded by

freddiewu1
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

Deciding Individual Exercise - Step by

Step Solution
1. Selected Disease and Test
For this example, we assume:

- Disease: "Disease X"

- Test: "Test A"

2. 2x2 Table for Test Results and Disease Presence


We create a 2x2 contingency table as follows:

Disease Present Disease Absent Row Total


Test Positive 80 30 110
Test Negative 20 70 90
Column Total 100 100 200

3. Calculating Sums and Prevalence


The prevalence of the disease is calculated as:

Prevalence = (TP + FN) / Total Population = 100 / 200 = 0.5 or 50%

4. True Positive Rate and False Positive Rate


True Positive Rate (Sensitivity) = TP / (TP + FN) = 80 / 100 = 0.8 or 80%

False Positive Rate = FP / (FP + TN) = 30 / 100 = 0.3 or 30%

5. Probability of Disease Given Positive Test (Using Bayes' Theorem)


We use Bayes' Theorem to calculate:

P(Disease | Positive Test) = (P(Positive Test | Disease) * P(Disease)) / P(Positive Test)

P(Positive Test) = (Sensitivity * Prevalence) + (False Positive Rate * (1 - Prevalence)) = 0.55

P(Disease | Positive Test) = (0.8 * 0.5) / 0.55 ≈ 0.727 or 72.7%


6. Recommendation Based on Positive Test
Since the probability is 72.7%, it is recommended to continue considering the diagnosis.

7. Probability of Disease Given Negative Test


We calculate:

P(Disease | Negative Test) = (0.2 * 0.5) / 0.45 ≈ 0.222 or 22.2%

8. Recommendation Based on Negative Test


With a 22.2% probability after a negative test, the clinician might still consider the
diagnosis but with less certainty.

9. Adding a Second, Less Accurate Test


If a second test is positive, the overall probability of disease increases, and the
recommendation becomes stronger.

You might also like