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 Chapter 9 Decision Modeling and Analysis

Basic Concepts Review Questions

1. What is a decision model, and what are the three types of inputs common to decision models?

Answer:
A decision model is one that can be used to understand, analyze, or facilitate making a decision.
Decision models generally have three types of inputs:
a) Data, which are assumed to be constant for purposes of the model.
b) Uncontrollable variables, which are quantities that can change but cannot be directly controlled by the decision maker.
c) Decision variables, which are controllable and can be selected at the discretion of the decision maker.

2. Explain the difference between descriptive and prescriptive (optimization) models.

Answer:
Descriptive models describe relationships and provide information for evaluation.
Prescriptive models seek to determine an optimal policy.

3. Describe how to use Excel data tables, Scenario Manager, and goal seek tools to analyze decision models.

Answer:
Data tables summarize the impact of one or two inputs on a specified output.
The Excel Scenario Manager tool allows you to create scenarios – sets of values that are saved and can be substituted automatically on your
worksheet
If you know the result that you want from a formula, but are not sure what input value the formula needs to get that result, use Goal Seek.

4. Explain the purpose of Solver and what type of decision model it is used for.
Answer:
Solver allows you to find optimal solutions to optimization problems formulated as spreadsheet models.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-01
 5. Describe the reasons why a manager might use a heuristic instead of an optimization algorithm.

Answer:
Some models are so complex that it is impossible to solve them optimally in a reasonable amount of computer time because of the extremely
large number of computations that may be required or because they are so complex that an optimal solution cannot be guaranteed. In
addition, some models have such high data uncertainty it may not be worth the concentrated effort to find an optimal solution. For these
cases, a heuristic algorithm may be more appropriate.
Heuristics are solution procedures that generally find good solutions without guarantees of finding an optimal solution.

6. Summarize the important knowledge that you need to successfully build good decision models.

Answer:
Logic and business principles - Building good decision models requires a solid understanding of basic business principles in all functional
areas (such as accounting, finance, marketing, and operations), knowledge of business practice and research, and logical skills
Common mathematical functions - such as linear, logarithmic, polynomial, power, and exponential functions & their common use in
modeling
Data fitting - of the functions listed above
Spreadsheet engineering - Improve the design and format of the spreadsheet, improve the process used to develop it, and inspect your
results carefully using the appropriate tools available in Excel

7. Explain basic spreadsheet engineering approaches for implementing decision models in Excel.

Answer:
a) Improve the design and format of the spreadsheet itself.
b) Improve the process used to develop a spreadsheet.
c) Inspect your results carefully and use appropriate tools available in Excel.

8. What does validity mean? How does it differ from verification? What issues must an analyst consider in building realistic models?

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-02
 Answer:
Validity refers to how well a model represents reality whereas verification is the process of ensuring that a model is accurate and free from
logical errors. It is impossible to include every detail of real life in one model. To add more realism to a model generally requires more
complexity and analysts have to know how to balance these. Analysts must pay careful attention to the assumptions made when building
models and developing spreadsheet formulas.

9. Provide some examples of how you might use decision models in your personal life or in the context of current or prior work experience.

Answer:
Answers will vary. Students should be encouraged to think creatively on how decision models might apply to real situations they face. Most
will suggest things like buying a house or car, choosing financing, making investments, choosing players for fantasy sports, and many other
specific work-related projects.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-03
 Problems and Applications

1. A supermarket has been experiencing long lines during peak periods of the day. The problem is noticeably worse on certain days of the
week, and the peak periods are sometimes different according to the day of the week. There are usually enough workers on the job to open
all cash registers. The problem is knowing when to call some of the workers stocking shelves up to the front to work the checkout counters.
How might decision models help the supermarket? What data would be needed to develop these models?

Answer:
Supermarket

This is simply a discussion question to engage students in thinking about decision models.
It was based on a project in which the author was involved many years ago.
One large grocery chain was investigating the use of a laser‑based scanner at the doors of the store to count arriving and departing
customers. Company managers wanted to use this information to forecast demand at the checkout counters about 30 minutes in the future to
make staffing adjustments before long lines developed. Customers enter the store, shop, wait in line at one of several checkout counters, and
then leave the store.
The uncertainty in arrival rates at the checkout counters is due to not knowing how long customers will shop.
A forecasting model was developed on the assumption that the demand for checkout services is related closely to the number of shoppers in
the store; the larger the population of shoppers, the larger will be the demand for checkout services.
If the probability distribution of shopping times is relatively stable, the number of customers demanding checkout service will be
proportional to the number of customers in the store.
Over one‑week period, data on store arrivals, departures, lengths of checkout lines, and the number of cashiers working at the end of fixed
time intervals were collected. In effect, these provided "snapshots" of the state of the store over time. By keeping a running total of arrivals
less departures, the store could calculate the number of customers in the store at any time.

From the arrival and departure data, a variable representing check-out service demand in any given period was created as follows.
y = number of customers demanding checkout service during a time period,
Q = number of customers in line at the end of the period,
C = number of checkers working at the end of the period, andd = number of departures during a time period.

An estimate of the demand during a given period is then given by

y= d + Q + C.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-04
 The rationale for this equation is that the demand is equal to the number of departures (people who actually obtained service), plus the
number waiting to be served (current demand), plus the number of checkers (assuming that all are busy). The data suggested that regression
models might work extremely well.
The choice of prediction variables was determined by intuition, the strong relationships suggested by the data, and by extensive analysis of
certain statistical measures of model adequacy. The model that was ultimately developed used y t+3− that is, the demand three time periods
into the future as the dependent variable, with the following independent variables:
Nt = number of customers in the store in period t
Nt-1 = number of customers in the store in period t–1
at = number of customers arriv-ing in period t
An example of the actual model for one day is
Yt+3 = 0.34431 – 0.12760Nt + 0.31627Nt-1 + 0.90634at

2. Four key marketing decision variables are price (P), advertising (A), transportation (T), and product quality (Q). Consumer demand (D) is
influenced by these variables. The simplest model for describing demand in terms of these variables is:
D = k – pP + aA + tT + qQ
where k, p, a, t, and q are constants. Discuss the assumptions of this model. Specifically, how does each variable affect demand? How do the
variables influence each other? What limitations might this model have? How can it be improved?

Answer:
Demand model

➢ The assumptions of this model are that the variables have a linear relationship with demand.
➢ All of the factors have a positive effect on demand except price (assuming, of course, the constants k, p, a, t, and q are positive or
zero).
➢ Because each term only has one variable, each is independent of the others.
➢ The constants represent the rate by which an increase in a variable affects demand.
➢ It might be improved by examining data to determine if the relationships are indeed linear or whether nonlinear terms should be
used.
➢ One might also determine if the independent variables affect each other.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-05
 3. Total marketing effort is a term used to describe the critical decision factors that affect demand: price, advertising, distribution, and
product quality. Define the variable x to represent total marketing effort. A typical model that is used to predict demand as a function of total
marketing effort is based on the power function: D = axb
Suppose that a is a positive number. Different model forms result from varying the constant b. Sketch the graphs of this model for b = 0, b =
1, 0< b<1, b<0, and b>1. (We encourage you to use Excel to do this.) What does each model tell you about the relationship between demand
and marketing effort? What assumptions are implied? Are they reasonable? How would you go about selecting the appropriate model?

Answer:
Marketing Effort Function

Students should use line charts with various values of the parameters. The example below allows you to change the values of a and b and
see the chart.

a= 2 b = 0.5
x D

1 2
2 2.828427125
3 3.464101615
4 4
5 4.472135955
6 4.898979486
7 5.291502622
8 5.656854249
9 6
10 6.32455532

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-06
 b = 0:

b = 0 results in a horizontal line through a on the y-axis, meaning that demand is constant for any value of marketing effort (not reasonable
in the vast majority of cases.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-07
 b = 1:

b = 1 results in a straight line with a slope of a, so demand increases proportionately with marketing effort (probably reasonable within most
normal limits).

b = 0.25: b = 0.75:

0 < b < 1 results a curved line that is concave down,

indicating that as marketing effort increases, demand increases but at a decreasing rate.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-08
 b = -1:

b < 0 is a curve that is concave up and approaches the x-axis, indicating that higher levels of marketing effort lead to smaller demands
(probably not a good model!).

b > 1:
09-06

b > 1 results in a graph that increases very rapidly in an exponential fashion, so demand increases rapidly for increases in marketing effort.

It is likely that each of these models would work reasonably well for certain scenarios or scales but not for others. For example, the b = 1
model is probably fine for examining small changes in a current marketing effort, such as increasing TV commercial frequency by 10% but
not adequately model the effects for very large changes in what is more typically a nonlinear response (e.g. over saturation).

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-09
 4. A manufacturer is preparing to set the price on a new action game. Demand is thought to depend on the price and is represented by the
model: D = 2,000 – 3.5P
The accounting department estimates that the total costs can be represented by:
C = 5,000 + 4.1D
a. Develop a model for the total profit and implement it on a spreadsheet.
b. Develop a one-way data table to evaluate profit as a function of price (choose a price range that is reasonable and appropriate).
c. Use Solver to find the price that maximizes profit.

Answer:

Action Game Profit Model

Price $100.00
Demand $1,650.00
Total costs $11,765.00
Revenue $1,65,000.00
Profit $1,53,235.00

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-10
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 Data table Price Profit
$1,53,235.00
$60.00 $95,061.00
$80.00 $1,25,548.00
$100.00 $1,53,235.00
$120.00 $1,78,122.00
$140.00 $2,00,209.00
$160.00 $2,19,496.00
$180.00 $2,35,983.00
$200.00 $2,49,670.00
$220.00 $2,60,557.00
$240.00 $2,68,644.00
$260.00 $2,73,931.00
$280.00 $2,76,418.00
$300.00 $2,76,105.00
$320.00 $2,72,992.00
$340.00 $2,67,079.00
$360.00 $2,58,366.00

Solver solution:
Price $287.76
Demand $992.83
Total costs $9,070.58
Revenue $2,85,699.58
Profit $2,76,628.99

09-11
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.
5. The Radio Shop sells two popular models of portable sport radios: model A and model B. The sales of these products are not independent of
each other (in economics, we call these substitutable products, because if the price of one increases, sales of the other will increase). The store
wishes to establish a pricing policy to maximize revenue from the products. A study of price and sales data shows the following relationships
between the quantity sold (N) and prices (P) of each model:
NA = 20 – 0.62PA + 0.30PB
NB = 29 + 0.10PA – 0.60PB

a. Construct a model for the total revenue and implement it on a spreadsheet.

b. Develop a two-way data table to estimate the optimal prices for each product in order to maximize the total revenue.
c. Use Solver to find the optimal prices.

Answer:

Radio Shop

Price Demand Revenue

Model A $10.00 $22.80 $228.00
Model B $30.00 $12.00 $360.00
Total $588.00

09-12
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.
 Data Price B
Table
$588.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00
$5.00 $225 $335 $415 $465 $485 $475 $435 $365 $265 $135 $(26)
$10.00 $288 $408 $498 $558 $588 $588 $558 $498 $408 $288 $138
$15.00 $321 $451 $551 $621 $661 $671 $651 $601 $521 $411 $271
Price A $20.00 $322 $462 $572 $652 $702 $722 $712 $672 $602 $502 $372
$25.00 $293 $443 $563 $653 $713 $743 $743 $713 $653 $563 $443
$30.00 $232 $392 $522 $622 $692 $732 $742 $722 $672 $592 $482
$35.00 $141 $311 $451 $561 $641 $691 $711 $701 $661 $591 $491
$40.00 $18 $198 $348 $468 $558 $618 $648 $648 $618 $558 $468
$45.00 $(136) $55 $215 $345 $445 $515 $555 $565 $545 $495 $415

Solver solution:
Price Demand Revenue
Model A $26.81 $13.31 $356.81
Model B $33.10 $11.82 $391.25
Total $748.06
Solver solution:
Price Demand Revenue
Model A $26.81 $13.31 $356.81
Model B $33.10 $11.82 $391.25
Total $748.06

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall. 09-13

 6. A forest fire is burning down a narrow valley three miles wide at a speed of 40 feet per minute. The fire can be contained by cutting a
firebreak through the forest across the valley. It takes 30 seconds for one person to clear one foot of the firebreak. The value of lost timber is
$4,000 per square mile. Each person hired is paid $18 per hour, and it costs $50 to transport and supply each person with the appropriate
equipment.
a. Develop a model for determining how many people should be sent to contain the fire and for determining the best location for the
firebreak (draw a picture first!).
b. Implement your model on a spreadsheet and find the optimal solution using Solver.

Answer:
Forest Fire

Let F = number of fire fighters

Each F clears firebreak at the rate of ‘1 ft/30 sec’ or ‘2 ft/min’ or F people clear ‘2*F ft/min’

Firebreak cleared in T minutes where T = (3mi * 5280 ft/mi)/(2*F ft/min) = 7920/F min
Rearranging, F=7920/T

Let V = fire propagation speed = 40 ft/min = 40/5280 mi/min

Let D = distance fire travels to firebreak
D = V*T ft = 40 ft/min * T * mi/5280 ft = (40*7920)/(F*5280) mi = 60/F mi

Let A = area of forest burned during time T = width of valley*D

A = 3 mi*D = 3*60/F mi^2 = 180/F mi^2

Cost of timber burned = $4000/mi^2 * A = 720,000/F $

Labor cost = F*($18/hr * hr/60 min * T + $50) = .30F*7920/F + 50*F = 2376 + 50*F
= 2376+ 50*F
Will minimize costs when completion of firebreak occurs when fire reaches firebreak
(not practical for safety reasons but nonetheless adequate for this study)

Total cost = labor cost + cost of timber burned = 2376 +50F + 720,000/F

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-14
 F Total Cost ($) Break location (miles)
10 74,876 6.000
25 32,426 2.400
50 19,276 1.200
75 15,726 0.800
100 14,576 0.600
125 14,386 0.480
150 14,676 0.400
175 15,240 0.343
200 15,976 0.300
225 16,826 0.267
250 17,756 0.240
300 19,776 0.200
400 24,176 0.150
Solver Solution 120 14,376 0.500

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

09-15
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 CHAPTER XII
A LAND OF MYSTERY AND MURDER

WITH my return to London in the early eighties, after I had been sent
to prison by proxy for seven years in Australia, the old lure of the
West Indies, with their continuous riot of revolutions, came over me
so strongly that I could not hold out against it, nor did I try. Frank
Norton, my old partner in piracy, had the “Queen of the Seas” at the
East Indian docks, where he was displaying a ship ventilating
apparatus which he had invented. He urged me to go back to the
China Sea with him and resume operations against the pirates, but I
put him off. Soon after leaving him I ran into an English engineer
named Tucker, whom I had known in Venezuela, and from him I
learned that Guzman Blanco, the Dictator, was in Paris, his foreign
capital, from which he was directing the government of Venezuela
through a dummy President, and was anxious to see me. I was not
particularly desirous of seeing him, however, for I feared I could not
resist him, and I had no wish to again be tied down in Caracas, as I
had been before when I was his confidential agent. I was much more
interested in reports which reached me, through contraband
channels, that a new revolution was shaping up in Costa Rica, and
that there was a prospect of trouble in Hayti and even in Venezuela.
I took the first ship for Halifax and went from there to St. John, New
Brunswick, where I bought the fore and aft schooner “George V.
Richards.” She was a trim-looking craft of about one hundred and
eighty tons, and stanch, but, as I discovered later, as faddish as an
old maid. We never could trim her to suit her and she never behaved
twice the same under similar conditions. In the same weather she
would settle back on her stern like a balky mule or sail like a racing
yacht, just as the spirit moved her. Yet I was fond of her, for she was
a great deal like myself; she had her wits about her all of the time
and was at her best in an emergency. I took her to Bridgeport,
Connecticut, where I loaded up with old Sharps and Remington rifles
and a lot of ammunition, and, after burying them under sixty tons of
coal, sailed for Venezuela to see what was going on in Guzman’s
absence.
Instead of going direct to La Guaira, where I was well known, I
headed for Maracaibo, the city that gave Venezuela its name. Alonzo
de Ojeda, who followed Columbus, sailed westward along the coast
of Terra Firme, which the Great Discoverer had spoken of as “the
most beautiful lands in the world,” to the Gulf of Maracaibo. There he
found several Indian villages built on piles and, prompted by this
suggestion, he named the land Venezuela, or “Little Venice.”
Maracaibo has a splendid harbor for light-draft vessels, and but for
the fact that it has been subject to the whims of successive
plundering presidents it would now be the chief city of the country.
Not only is it the port of a great and rich section of Venezuela, but it
is the only outlet for the coffee and other products of a large part of
Colombia. Ever since their separation there has been ill-feeling
between the two republics, and it has suited the fancy of every
Venezuelan president since Guzman’s day, Castro being the chief
offender, to spasmodically shut off all communication with Colombia,
with consequent disastrous effects to the trade of Maracaibo. As a
partial offset to these recurrent embargoes, the city boasts of a
brand of yellow fever that has actually made it famous, at least
among travellers in South America. It is so mild that it is seldom fatal
and wise folks who are ticketed for the interior of Venezuela go to
Maracaibo and stay until they have had the fever and become
immune.
The collector of customs at Maracaibo “borrowed” a fine rifle from
me, which is one of the South American varieties of graft, and put
me up at the club, where I was thrown in friendly contact with the
people I wished to meet. I found that General Alcantara was acting
as dummy President while Guzman was enjoying himself in Europe,
and I soon satisfied myself, from remarks dropped by his friends in
response to my guarded inquiries, that he was ambitious to become
the ruler of Venezuela in fact as well as in name. The movement to
overthrow Guzman was, in fact, taking definite form, and I sold a part
of my arms to Alcantara’s friends. They wanted to buy the entire
cargo, but I refused to part with it, on the ground that the bulk of it
had been contracted for elsewhere. It was apparent that serious
trouble was brewing for Guzman and, instead of proceeding to Costa
Rica, I sailed for La Guaira, intending to visit Caracas and look the
situation over at close range.
At the capital there was the same undercurrent of revolt against the
dictatorship of Guzman, which was being secretly encouraged by the
partisans of the acting President. I called at the Yellow House to pay
my respects to Alcantara, whom I had known in Guzman’s army, and
in the course of our conversation he suggested that I remain in
Caracas and become his friend, as I had been Guzman’s. He did not
tell me of his real ambition in so many words, but I needed no
binoculars to see what was in his mind. I at once wrote Guzman fully,
telling him of Alcantara’s treachery and describing the situation as I
had found it, and then sailed for Costa Rica. Guzman had also heard
of what was going on through other sources and, as I subsequently
learned, he returned to Venezuela a few months later, before the
revolt that was being hatched had broken its shell. The government
was promptly turned over to him by Alcantara, who at once started to
leave the country, evidently fearing that if he remained he would be
summarily sent to San Carlos, then as now the unhappy home of
political prisoners. He started for La Guaira by the old post road,
along which were a number of public houses. In one of these he met
a party of politicians and while with them he died suddenly. It was
charged by Alcantara’s friends that he was poisoned by order of
Guzman, who suspected that he was going away to launch a
revolution, but the friends of Guzman claimed that he ate heartily of
rich salads while in a heated condition and died from acute
indigestion. The latter version of it has always been my view, for
Guzman was not the man to have an enemy, nor even a friend who
had played him false, put out of the way in such fashion. Guzman
was a dictator to his finger tips, but he was nothing of a murderer.
The Costa Ricans were, I found, making one of their periodical but
always futile efforts to depose their President, General Tomaso
Guardia, and I had no difficulty in disposing of my arms and
ammunition, which I exchanged for a cargo of coffee. I might have
joined the revolution had I not become convinced that it had no more
chance of success than those which had preceded it. Gen. Guardia,
who ruled until he died, was one of the few strong men Central
America has produced. He was the Diaz of Costa Rica and as much
of a dictator as Guzman Blanco, whom he greatly resembled in his
friendship for foreigners and his contempt for the natives. When he
heard of a political leader, so called, who was trying to stir up trouble,
Gen. Guardia would send for him and say: “Your health has not been
good for some time. I see that you are failing. You need a long trip.
Go to Europe and stay a year,” or two years or five, according to
circumstances. A couple of trusted lieutenants were assigned to stay
with the politely condemned exile, “to see that he wanted for
nothing,” and he never failed to take the next ship for foreign shores.
Another presidential method was to summon some discontented
one, who was planning an insurrection, and make him a member of
the Cabinet. Flattered by this honor the new Minister was easily
tempted to come out with exaggerated expressions of confidence in
Gen. Guardia and his government. Thereupon the President would
kick him into the street. “There,” he would say to the natives, “you
see, all that man wanted was money. He is nothing of a patriot.”
Guardia always smiled, whether he was sentencing a man to exile or
ejecting him from his shifting Cabinet; he regarded the natives as
only children. By such methods as these he made himself master of
the country, and the little rebellions which sprang up from time to
time were quickly suppressed. One of the foreigners for whom he
developed a great liking was Dr. W. R. Bross, a New York physician
who was at Port Limon with a party of engineers who were building a
railroad from the coast into the interior. While on a visit to Port Limon
the President discovered that Dr. Bross had much more skill than
any of the physicians at the capital. He wanted him to go to Europe
with him and, when this proposition was rejected, urged him to
accompany him to San Jose, the capital, and become his private
physician, at a salary he was to name himself. This offer was also
turned down. Had Dr. Bross been more worldly, and less devoted to
the men who were in his care, he could have secured concessions
worth millions of dollars, for Gen. Guardia was more than generous
to his friends.
I suspected that the coffee I received had been stolen from planters
who were loyal to the government, and that the rebels had “levied”
on it as a war tax, but as they charged me three cents less a pound
than the market price, while I charged them four or five times as
much for the arms and ammunition as they cost me, I had no
compunctions of conscience about taking it. It is a waste of good
time and precious protoplasm to sympathize with Central or South
Americans who are pillaged by rebels, for in the next uprising the
victims of the previous one will, in their turn, be the plunderers.
Thanks to the meddling of American warships, things have quieted
down a great deal within recent years, but in the good old days, of
which I am writing, revolutions were as much a part of the daily life of
the people in those countries as their morning meal, and more so
than their morning bath. In fact, the most popular morning salutation
was, “Who are we revoluting for [or against] to-day?” Few went
further and asked why they were in revolt, for that was a minor
consideration and there were not many who knew. At least nine-
tenths of the steady routine of revolutions were due to nothing more
than personal ambition, which has been the curse of Latin America.
Some man of influence or a disgruntled general who had helped to
elevate some other general to the presidency, and then had not been
shown the consideration to which he thought himself entitled, would
raise the standard of rebellion. Under a plethora of promises as to
what he would do when he became president, he would attract other
dissatisfied ones to his cause, and it usually was only a question of
time until he overturned the unstable government. Then he would, in
turn, be unable or unwilling to make good on all of his promises, real
or implied, and those whom he disappointed would proceed to throw
him out. Every man of importance had a following of ignorant natives
who, either because they had grown up in his section of the country
and had been taught to show him homage, or because they
expected to lead lazy lives when he became all-powerful, would
follow him blindly. A revolution which involved any question of good
government was almost unheard of. It is nothing but the inordinate
and, among the upper classes, almost unanimous thirst for power
that has retarded the development of these rich countries for
generations. Blessed by nature beyond the understanding of those
who have not spent years in them, they have been cursed by man.
When they have become civilized and their development once sets
in, it will eclipse anything America has ever seen.
But these observations are not a part of my story. With the cargo of
loyalist coffee we headed for New Orleans. We made bad weather of
it all of the way. The faddish ship wouldn’t sail or heave to and was
as cranky as an old man in his dotage. Some days we actually went
backward, and it was a long time before we raised South Pass light
and were picked up by a tug. The moment the hawser tightened the
old ship threw herself back on her haunches and refused to budge.
The captain of the towboat, after struggling strenuously to get us
under way, dropped back and screamed at me, “What in hell is the
matter with that damned old hooker?”
“You don’t know how to tow and she knows it,” I retorted.
“One would think you had all the anchors in the United States down,”
he shouted.
I assured him that we didn’t have even one down and he tried it
again and finally got us to going. We were off quarantine soon after
sundown and discovered that an embargo of forty days against
Central American ports had been raised only an hour before. The
balkiness of the “Richards” had prevented us from having to ride at
anchor for days or weeks and be subjected to casual inspection and
gossip which might have caused trouble. While the delay had been
of service to us in that respect it provoked some anxiety on another
point. I had an idea that the Costa Rican Government might try to
have the ship seized, and our trip had been such a long one that no
time was to be lost in selling our cargo and getting away. I took
samples of the coffee to New Orleans on a tug and placed them in
the hands of old Peter Stevens, of the Produce Exchange, who sold
the whole cargo in an hour.
While the coffee was coming out stores were going in, and we were
out of the river again and on our way to Hayti in record time. Though
I had good cause to remember Santo Domingo I never had been in
the “Black Republic,” and as I had heard there was a probability of
some lively times there I determined to visit it before I returned to
New York. But the crankiness of the “Richards” interfered with my
plans. When we were about one hundred miles west of Key West the
old ship committed suicide by burning herself to death. The fire
started in the hold amidships, but we could not even imagine what
might have caused it. It was so unexpected that it had a good start
before we discovered it. We fought it, of course, but we might as well
have tried to quench a volcano in eruption. The strange craft had
made up her mind to go under, and there was nothing for us to do
but take to the whaleboat, which was large enough for all of us, as I
had only a small crew. After we had shoved off we returned at
considerable risk to rescue a big black cat which was on the ship
when I bought her. We had christened him “John Croix,” and every
man on board undertook to teach him all he knew about navigation,
with the result that the animal had become so highly educated that
he could do everything about the ship but use the sextant.
Our humanity was well rewarded, for John saved our lives, or at
least saved us from a lot of suffering. A stiff norther came up before
we sighted land and for several days we were tossed about without
any clear idea as to the direction in which we were being blown, for
not once did we get a glimpse of sun or moon by which to take a
reckoning. Eventually we drifted among the islands to the westward
of Key West, and we headed for the largest one in sight. In the
heavy sea that was running we made a bad mess of the landing. Our
boat was overturned and stove in, the bung came out of the water
cask, and all of our supplies and most of our instruments were lost.
We got ashore all right, and John Croix with us, but we had neither
food nor water, and when a search of the little island failed to reveal
so much as a sign of a spring of fresh water, we began to give some
thought to what our chances would be in the hereafter. We
bivouacked gloomily that night on the beach. Early in the morning
the cat awakened me by rubbing against my face. At first I thought
he was only depressed, like the rest of us, and wanted company, but
he pestered around until I got up and followed him. Calling to me
over his shoulder he led the way to a clump of mangrove trees,
whose roots overhung the bank three feet above high tide. John
trotted under the mass of roots and began to purr loudly. I started to
follow him and then backed out, but the cat yowled so loudly that I
got down on all fours again and followed him. I crawled along for ten
or twelve feet until I found John standing over a rivulet of fresh water
about as big as my finger. I drank my fill from it and then awakened
the others and told them of John’s discovery. They hailed him as our
saviour, and when he came trotting into camp a couple of hours later
with an oyster in his mouth they were ready to beatify him. Until John
had shown us the way to food, as he had led us to water, we had not
thought of looking for oysters, of which there were millions around
the roots of the mangrove trees. Strengthened and encouraged we
patched up our boat and, when the storm had blown itself out, put to
sea again and encountered a little schooner from St. John’s, Florida,
which took us to Key West, where we soon got a ship for New York.
On the way north we put in at Charleston, where I had enjoyed much
excitement as a blockade runner, and there I presented John Croix
to a Methodist minister who promised to give him a good home.
I was still anxious to visit Hayti, that land of mystery and murder,
and, in the guise of an English planter, I went there on a West Indian
steamer. Hayti has had more internal troubles and more presidents
than any other of the revolutionary republics and her domestic
disorders will continue until they are stopped by some powerful
outside influences, for the blacks and mulattoes are eternal enemies.
In the first three years following the separation from Santo Domingo
there were four presidents. In 1849 Soulouque, a negro, proclaimed
himself Emperor, as Faustian I. He ruled with despotic power,
renewed the war on Santo Domingo, and played hob generally with
the nation’s finances and affairs. In 1858 General Geffrard, a mulatto
whom Soulouque had condemned to death, revolted and proclaimed
himself President. He restored the constitution and held on until
1867, when he was overthrown by General Salnave, who lasted
three years before he was deposed and shot. He had four
successors in twice as many years, the last one being General
Salomon, who was at the head of affairs when I arrived on the
scene.
It did not take me long to make up my mind that Hayti was the
warmest hotbed of intrigue I had ever run across and I felt that I was
among friends and in a thoroughly congenial atmosphere. The very
air seemed to breed revolutions; perhaps because it was peopled
with the spirits of the old buccaneers who had their headquarters at
the western end of the island in the entrancing early days. There
were many plotters for the presidency, but there were two great rival
camps, one headed by General F. D. Legitime and the other by
General Florville Hippolyte. Legitime was planning to overturn the
government at once, but it was the scheme of Hippolyte, who was
more cunning and willing to wait, to continue Salomon in power until
the election of 1886, when he expected to secure his own election as
Constitutional President. All of the plots and counter-plots were laid
in secret, of course, yet all men of influence knew in a general way
what the others were doing and where they stood, with due
allowance for the treachery always found in Latin countries, which
creates a delightful element of uncertainty.
Hippolyte was one of the ugliest negroes I have ever known—and
my estimate of him as here set down is in no way influenced by the
fact that some years later he arranged to have me carefully
murdered. With his bloodshot eyes and white whiskers, which latter
reminded one of dirty lace curtains, his cruel face was suggestive of
some wild animal. He was abrupt and domineering in his manner
and there was not a forgiving drop of blood in his veins. If the
hippopotamus is as savage a brute as has been pictured, Hippolyte
should have taken all of his name from that animal. He could laugh,
but only like a hyena, and it was impossible for him to smile. Brutal
and bloodthirsty, he was at the same time a forceful old villain and
possessed of much native shrewdness. Like all of the blacks he was
a devout voodoo worshipper, and with the aid of the papalois—the
priesthood of the cannibalistic creed—he played on the superstitions
of the ignorant negroes. We became well acquainted during the year
or more that I loafed around Port au Prince, revelling in the oddly
warlike surroundings and watching the budding plots, and at times I
found him interesting.
Legitime was the opposite of Hippolyte in all of his qualities. He was
a bright, intelligent, progressive mulatto; well educated for a Haytien
and with a good address and the manners of a gentleman. Intense
loyalty was one of his strongest characteristics and he had visions of
his country’s immediate future which have not yet, after twenty-five
years, been in any degree realized. No one questioned his bravery,
and while he to some extent lacked firmness and strength of
character, I believed he would develop these vital traits with age, for
he was then a comparatively young man. He had the elements of a
first-class president, and had he ever become firmly established in
that office Hayti would to-day be a very different country and a much
more agreeable neighbor.
In the end I allied myself with Legitime, and in so doing incurred the
bitter enmity of Hippolyte, who had told me something of his plans
and had even gone so far as to suggest, without going into details,
that I coöperate with him when the time for action arrived. The result
was that when I went over to his hated rival he took it as a deadly
insult, and the chances are that we would have taken a few shots at
each other if my stay in the country had not been cut short. I was
negotiating with Legitime to supply him with arms and take a
commission in his army, and we were getting along famously toward
a real revolution when suddenly, in the latter part of 1884, President
Salomon ordered that he be expelled from the country for plotting
against him. If Legitime had been less popular he would have been
unceremoniously shot, but Salomon’s influence was already
beginning to wane and he did not care to add largely to his enemies,
so he contented himself with an order of expulsion. At the same
time, through the instrumentality of Hippolyte, the suggestion was
conveyed to me that the climate of Hayti was not suited to my health.
Legitime boarded a ship for Jamaica, which was conveniently in the
harbor when his expulsion was announced, and I accompanied him.
He told me the time was not ripe for his revolt and that he proposed
to wait until the conditions were more favorable for him. As a matter
of fact he waited four years, and while he succeeded in overthrowing
Salomon in the end, his rule was short-lived. I remained with him in
Kingston for some time and then, as I saw no prospect of quick
action, returned to Australia, by way of London, where I resumed my
British name of George MacFarlane.
I reached Melbourne in 1885, after an absence of about four years,
and went to Menzies’ Hotel, which was not the one I had stopped at
before, when I was James Stuart Henderson. Of my three
companions who had been sent to prison for stealing the “Ferret,”
Leigh, the sailing master, had recently completed his term, while
Nourse, who impersonated me, and Joe Wilson, had still nearly two
years to serve. I located Leigh and put him to work for Nevins, a sail
maker, and sent word to the others that I was there and would wait
around until they came out. Then, fearing that I might be recognized
by some of the officers who had suspected, during the trial, that
Nourse was playing a part, with the probable result that I would be
forced to again change places with him, which I had no wish to do, I
went on to Sydney. There I met Montfort & Co., merchants and
speculators, through whom I became financially interested in a group
of silver properties known as the Sunny Corner Mines, in the Broken
Hills district in New South Wales. We also laid claim to Mount
Morgan, deceptively described as “A Mountain of Gold,” which was
partly in Queensland. We plunged heavily on a question of title,
which was in litigation, and stood, as we thought, to make many
millions. When the decision of the highest court was finally
announced the bottom fell out of our scheme, for we were knocked
out at every point, and there was a void in my bank account which
represented considerably more than one hundred thousand dollars.
From the time of my first visit to Australia the laboring men had been
conducting an anti-Chinese agitation, to perpetuate and strengthen
their power over capital. There were not then, nor are there now,
nearly enough workers in the country to supply the demand. The
native blacks are without question the laziest people under the sun.
The notoriously indolent West Indian negro is an enterprising and
ambitious citizen by comparison with them, for there is no power on
earth by which they can be made to work. The Chinese, always on
the lookout for a labor market, soon heard of the rich field and
invaded it in droves, whereupon the white workmen of all grades set
up a great hullabaloo; it was there I first heard the cry of the “Yellow
Peril.” The employers, fearful of antagonizing their employees, either
joined with them or let them have their own way. They urged
England to put a stop to the importation of Chinese and when the
mother country, which was extending its “sphere of influence”
(meaning thereby the acquisition of territory) further and further into
the Celestial Empire, declined to act, Victoria and New South Wales
took the matter into their own hands and passed a Chinese
exclusion law. It provided that any ship captain who brought Chinese
into these Provinces should be compelled to return them, forfeit his
certificate, and pay a fine of not more than three hundred pounds for
each “Chinkie,” and he might also be sent to jail. Chinese were
further prohibited from entering the restricted districts by the
overland route, and while it was impossible to entirely shut them out,
it was thought the new law would greatly reduce the number that
entered the country.
It occurred to me that I might recoup my mining losses by importing
Chinamen, without running any considerable risk of arrest, and I
went into the business. It promised to be profitable, for the natural
effect of the exclusion law was to intensify the desire of the
“Chinkies” to get into the two Provinces, where the demand for them
was the greater on account of their restricted number. I bought the
old mission ship “Southern Cross,” which took Bishop Selwyn to
Australia, a fore and aft schooner of about two hundred tons, and
sent her across the bay to Balmain to be overhauled and put in
shape for her new purpose. I had her fitted up as a private yacht, but
all of her fittings below decks were so arranged that they could be
knocked down and stored away, leaving the hold open. On the first
trip to China I had tiers and rows of berths built on the same quickly
removable principle, and with this arrangement there was enough
space to enable us to carry more than two hundred passengers
without discomfort.
I brought Leigh up from Melbourne and made him sailing master and
again began preying on the Chinkies, but in a more friendly way than
when I was plundering their pirate junks in the China Sea. The
Chinamen furnished their own food, and Quong Tart, a rich Chinese
merchant of Sydney, paid me one hundred and fifty dollars for every
one I landed in Victoria or New South Wales. He arranged for their
shipment, so, when I arrived at Amoy or Shanghai, where they all
came from, I had only to wait for the requisite number to come on
board, and he also took charge of them when they were put ashore.
In a spirit of dare-deviltry I landed the first shipload less than five
miles north of Newcastle, the second largest city in New South
Wales. The subsequent cargoes I unloaded on the beach north of
Newcastle or south of Sydney, without ever feeling that I was in any
serious danger of being discovered. Each time I sent word to Quong
Tart where the next load would be put ashore and about the time I
was expected he sent spies to the spot to see if any officers were
hanging around and signal to me if there was danger of running into
a trap. No two cargoes were ever landed at the same place and only
Quong Tart knew where to look for me on the next trip. When Nourse
and Wilson were released from prison the former scurried across
Bass Strait to his old Tasmanian home with the money I had paid
him for so successfully impersonating me. He considered that he
had been well compensated for his compulsory retirement from
active life and expected to invest his capital in some small business,
to which affluent position, under ordinary conditions, he never could
have aspired with any degree of confidence. Wilson’s disposition
was to go back to the sea with me, so I bought the “Nettie H,” a
handy little steamer, and put her into the Chinese smuggling trade. I
took command of the steamer, with Leigh as sailing master, and put
Wilson in charge of the schooner, as I could trust him with the least
anxiety. He had none of Leigh’s love for liquor and the result of his
carelessness with the “Ferret” had made him as careful as a Scot.
While the “Nettie H” was being fitted out, the authorities warned me
that they knew what I was up to and it would go hard with me if they
secured proof of their suspicions, but, knowing they were only
shooting in the air, I laughed at them.
If this business of carrying Chinese under cover had been as
productive of adventure as it was of profits, I would have stuck to it
indefinitely, but it was so absolutely devoid of excitement that it
palled on me. After we had made eight or nine trips, which more than
repaid my financial losses ashore, I withdrew from the trade, with the
idea of returning to the seductive West Indies, where I imagined
there were higher-class operations to be conducted, and more
thrilling times to be found. While I was disposing of my ships and
finally closing up my Australian affairs, I was in Sydney for several
weeks and stopped at the Imperial Hotel, where I met and became
well acquainted with Guy Boothby, the English novelist. Though he
dreamed away his inborn love of adventure, while I industriously
practised mine and made it my life, he was a good deal of a kindred
spirit, and in the course of our numerous long talks I told him enough
about my experience with the Beautiful White Devil, without going
into any of the detailed and intimate facts which have been told in
these confessions, so that he subsequently wove a romance about
her, using her sobriquet as a title for the story.
Accompanied by Leigh and Wilson, who were going only as far as
England, I boarded a steamship for London, on my way back to New
York. It would have been easier and quicker for me to have returned
by way of San Francisco, but I involuntarily selected the roundabout
way, to soon find that it led me into a unique and altogether
unexpected experience.
 CHAPTER XIII
ADVENTURES ON THE NILE

WHEN I finally forsook Australia, near the close of 1889,

accompanied by Leigh and Wilson, who had paid a penitentiary
penalty for my revengeful ambition and their own carelessness, I
was in no particular hurry to get anywhere, but had no thought of
stopping off at any point short of London until we reached
Alexandria. Immediately on our arrival there I was suddenly seized
with a freak of fancy, as we nonchalantly speak of the immutable
decrees of Fate when we wish to show an independence of action
we do not feel, to visit Cairo, and without waste of time and energy in
mental argument I sent my dunnage ashore by one of the thousand
or more small boats which viciously assaulted the ship from all sides.
My two companions, after their trying times in Melbourne, were
anxious to get back among their own people, so they went on to
London, which decision was reached without the slightest effort to
conceal their comments on my erratic disposition, while I proceeded
to the ancient capital of the Kings of Egypt—those glorious old
marauding monarchs who made despotism a fine art and graft a
religion. There I was projected into a most alluringly adventurous
undertaking. Though failing utterly of its high purpose, it was by no
means devoid of compensations, for it initiated me far enough into
the mysteries of departed days so that I considered myself at least
an entered apprentice, and, furthermore, it carried me into close
relationship with an exquisitely beautiful woman, which, next to
plotting against peace and fighting out the plan, is always the thing
most to be desired. As a matter of fact it is the rule in the Orient,
where man is less virile and more devious and discreet than in the
newer world, that a handsome woman is a part of every properly
promoted plot, and this one was no exception.
Under my British name of George MacFarlane I stopped at
Shepheard’s Hotel, then the home of all pilgrims, and gave myself up
to the enjoyment of new scenes while I waited, in no sense
impatiently, for the development of the situation through whose
coming I had been summoned. It was at the height of the tourist
season, following the Christmas holidays, and there was an
abundance of company, made up of cultured Europeans and a few
Americans of gentle birth, for that was before Cairo was over-run
with the over-rich. The time was delightfully whiled away for a month
before anything happened to indicate the reason for my being there,
but within less than half of that time I had renewed acquaintance with
the man who was really the key to the situation, though I did not
suspect it at the time. He and I had been strangely thrown together
some years before, under conditions which provoked rather an
intimate knowledge of each other, and when we met on the street
one day the recognition was instant and mutual. He did not inquire
into my business but simply asked what name I was travelling under,
in order that he might not embarrass me. He stood in close and
confidential relation to Tewfik Pasha, the Khedive, and on that
account it is best that there should be no hint, even now, as to his
name or nationality.
I wished to see the titular ruler of Egypt at close range, and through
my old companion-in-arms I secured an invitation to the Khedive’s
annual ball at the Abdin Palace. This function, which naturally was
the event of the year, was rendered impressive by all the artistry of
the East, and it was a most brilliant spectacle. At the ends of every
step in the long stairway leading up to the palace stood immobile
footmen, who suggested past glories despite their costume, which
was decidedly English, save for the ever-present fez. Inside, there
was an endless succession of long mirrors set in the walls, which
multiplied the jewels of the women and the gay uniforms of the
officers and diplomats into a flashing mass of colors; countless
palms scattered profusely through the large rooms, and gorgeous
chandeliers illuminated with candles, but there was not so much as a
hint of furniture. Had there been any place where the guests could
lounge or sit, beyond the floor, the chances are that some of them
would have stayed there until the next day, at least, in the absence
of physical violence as an aid to their departure. The only ladies
present were Europeans and some few favored Americans, but from
wide corridors behind the musharabiyeh, or fretwork around the
frieze of the walls, the Khedivah and her women attendants had a
good view of the proceedings without danger of being seen. They
were equally secure from any possibility of intrusion, for every
avenue that led in their direction was guarded by offensively haughty
eunuchs.
I was purposely close to the end of the long line of people who were
presented to the Khedive, for I wanted to study him. He was about
five and a half feet tall, with straight black hair, black moustache, an
olive complexion, brown eyes that were more than alert, and a rather
Roman nose, giving a Jewish cast to his face, which always wore a
very bored expression except when he was interested. His hand was
small but firm—such a hand as would commit murder if the owner
were sure it would not be found out. There was nothing of the brave
man in his looks or actions. Polite and insinuating by nature, he was
never born to lead. Rather, he suggested the favorite and tool of the
Sultan, who would take some small chance of losing his head with a
sufficiently large reward in the other side of the scale. He wore that
night, and always, a single-breasted frock coat, like that of an
Episcopal clergyman. He spoke English correctly but with an accent,
and aversion as well; French he loved and spoke like a Parisian. I
had been given advance information on this point, so when I was
introduced, following a string of Englishmen and Americans, I
addressed him in French. Instantly the weary look vanished and his
face lighted up until he became almost handsome.
“Ah,” he exclaimed, as he gripped my hand with more force than I
had previously seen him display, “you are a Frenchman. I am
delighted.”
I made some polite reply and he went on, almost excitedly, “I love
the French language, but I do not like the English. I speak it only
because I have to. The Khedivah is more fortunate. She does not
speak it at all, and she never will learn it.”
We exchanged commonplaces for a moment and I passed on,
wondering to what extent England could trust this man, who hated
her tongue and made no secret of it.
Cairo has been described so often and in so many ways by people
who had nothing better to write about that I have no wish to add to
the literature on that subject, but I cannot refrain from speaking, in
passing, of one unusual scene which, so far as I have read, has for
all of these years escaped the attention of literary loiterers. With my
mind far back in centuries that are forgotten, in lands devoid of
imperishable monuments like those around me, I had stayed on the
summit of Cheops so long, one afternoon, that my dragoman
declared I would have trouble in reaching the bottom before dark.
Half-way down I paused for a glimpse at Cairo, with every minaret
standing out boldly in the strong light. Then, suddenly, almost at my
feet, the sinking sun created the shadow of the Great Pyramid, and it
began to move. It advanced almost imperceptibly, at first, but
gathered headway quickly and in a moment it was rushing across
the twelve-mile plain toward the city with the speed of an express
train, as it seemed to me; I am sure no race horse could have kept
pace with it. When the shadow reached the Mokattam Hills it paused
for an instant and then began, slowly and more slowly and with
apparent difficulty, to climb the high side of the Citadel Mosque.
When it was half-way up the wall the sun dropped out of sight like a
shot and we were buried in Egyptian darkness, which, be it said, is
no simple figure of speech. In a few minutes, however, we were able
to complete our descent of the gigantic steps by the light of the
brilliant afterglow, which spread its soft radiance over the land.
As I was enjoying my after-dinner cigar one evening in a quiet corner
of the garden in front of the hotel, I was approached by three women
pedlers, apparently of the fellah class. They wore the common blue
kimono-like garment, held together seemingly by luck, and their
small black veils were thrown over their heads, leaving their faces
bare and thus placing them outside the pale of Egyptian
respectability. I was about to walk away to avoid their pestering,
when my eyes met those of the one who was in the lead, and
instantly I was attracted in place of being repelled. Great, brilliant
eyes they were; not fickle and flirtatious, like those of the thinly veiled
beauties of the harem who were seen in their coupes on the
Shoobra Road every afternoon, nor sullen or sensuous, like those of
the class to which her garb gave her claim; but steady and sincere,
wide-open and frank, and in them shone a light that converted into
specks the lanterns with which the grounds were illuminated. Such
eyes do not come in one generation, not even by chance, nor are
they born of the soil. Her face was of the pure Egyptian type, gentle
in its contour and refined in every line, with perfectly arched
eyebrows and a mass of hair as black as her eyes, and her easy
carriage emphasized the grace of her tall, lithe figure, the curves of
which not even her coarse robe could entirely conceal.
Her sparkling eyes, turned full on me and ignoring all else, told me
as plainly as words could have done that she had some message for
me, and, suspecting that the moment for which I had been waiting
for weeks had arrived, I walked slowly toward her, as though in a
mood to barter. As we met, seemingly somewhat disconcerted by my
steady gaze of profound and unconcealed admiration, she drew her
uncouth veil across her face and held out her hands, like one trained
to tourist trade, that I might examine her wonderful rings. Those
hands could never have known work, they were so soft and small,
and arms more perfectly rounded were never modelled in marble by
a master. Plainly this woman was not of the servant class, to which
her companions as clearly belonged. One of her hands was half-
closed and as she laid it in mine it opened and a small piece of
folded paper fell into my palm. Long accustomed to ways out of the
ordinary, I gave no sign, beyond an involuntary start which she felt
but no one else noticed, and proceeded with outward calmness, and
assuredly with much deliberation, to select a ring, which I purchased
as a souvenir of our first meeting. It was set with an uncut ruby in a
band of gold so fine that it was removed from her tiny finger, which it
encircled nearly twice, simply by pressing the ends outward. Not a
word passed between us except as to the price of the ring, over
which there was no haggling. The women who were with her made a
pretence of showing me their wares, but it was only a show for the
benefit of any inquisitive persons who might be watching, and
without urging me to buy they passed on. I strolled after them and
was interested in observing that as they approached other guests
the woman who had slipped me the note remained in the
background, with her face veiled, leaving commerce to her
companions. They attempted to make only a few sales and then
disappeared.
Curious to a degree that surprised me, as to the contents of the
communication which had come to me so strangely, but fearful of
being watched, by I knew not whom, it was some time before I went
to my room to read the note by the light of a tallow candle. The
mysterious missive read: “You are Captain Boynton. Are you willing
to undertake a difficult and perhaps dangerous mission? Answer to-
morrow night through the channel by which you receive this.”
Here was a romantic promise of something new and real in the way
of excitement, for I could imagine nothing stereotyped growing out of
such an unusual beginning, and I rejoiced. The answer to the
inspiring invitation, which I promptly burned from discretion while
sentiment told me to keep it, required no thought, and as I am not
much given to the exertion of energy in seeking solutions for difficult
problems that will soon supply their own answers, I did not greatly
concern myself as to the purpose of the plot in which I was sought as
a partner. Inasmuch as the only man in Cairo who knew me as
Captain Boynton, and who was acquainted with my favorite
occupation, was a confidant of the Khedive, it naturally occurred to
me that the oily Tewfik Pasha was mixed up in it in some way, and I
suspected that it involved another secret movement against British
rule in Egypt. The latter suspicion was soon verified and there never
has been any doubt in my own mind that I was equally correct in the
conjecture as to the participation, or at least the silent approval, of
Tewfik, but this could not be proved.
Knowing the mystery-loving nature of the Egyptians and feeling sure
that if left wholly to their own ways they would entertain themselves
with a long correspondence which could do no good and might
arouse suspicion, I determined to bring matters to a head as quickly
as possible. It was evident that those who sought my services knew
much about me and it was quite as important to me that I should
know them. The next evening, before going down to dinner, I wrote
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