Aaron Y. Zelin - The Age of Political Jihadism - A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-Rowman & Littlefield Publishers (2023)
Aaron Y. Zelin - The Age of Political Jihadism - A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-Rowman & Littlefield Publishers (2023)
together with a fair and sensible assessment of the policy dilemma that
this poses. How should the West approach a group that has abandoned
al-Qaeda but models itself on the Taliban? That is the question that
THE AGE OF
AL
Aaron Zelin takes up in this illuminating study.”
PO LI T IC
–COLE BUNZEL, Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, and
editor, Jihadica
Aaron Y. Zelin
“In this comprehensive study, Aaron Zelin captures the complexity of HTS
M
and its recent transformations, and explores the thorny question of
H A D IS
whether the group should be delisted from international terrorism lists.
JI
An important read for those interested in understanding the evolution of
HTS and the current state of affairs in northwest Syria.”
AL-SHAM
Department of Politics at Brandeis University, and the
d y o f H AYAT TA HRIR
A Stu
founder of Jihadology.net. He is author of the book Your Sons
Are at Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad (Columbia
University Press), along with the recent Institute study
Syria at the Center of Power Competition and Counterterrorism.
A ARON Y. ZELIN
Aaron Y. Zelin
Published in association with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic
or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written
permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer, who may quote passages in a review.
∞™ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American
National Standard for Information Science—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library
Materials. ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.
List of Imagesiv
Abbreviationsv
Acknowledgmentsvi
1 Introduction1
8 Conclusion77
AQ al-Qaeda
AQAP al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQI al-Qaeda in Iraq
AQIM al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
CT counterterrorism
E.O. Executive Order
FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization
HASI Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyah
HD Huras al-Din
HSM Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahedin
HTS Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
IDP internally displaced person
IS Islamic State
ISI Islamic State of Iraq
ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
JFS Jabhat Fatah al-Sham
JN Jabhat al-Nusra
JNIM Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin
KG Khorasan Group
SNC Syrian National Council
SSG Syrian Salvation Government
TIP Turkestan Islamic Party
TTP Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
Acknowledgments
This paper would not be in its current shape without the help of many
individuals. Foremost is Richard Borow, who endows my position at The
Washington Institute. Likewise, Matthew Levitt, who directs the Institute’s
Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence (CTI), provides
me the freedom to pursue a diverse array of intellectually stimulating
topics. My CTI teammate, Katherine Bauer, provided crucial feedback on
all issues related to terrorism designations and sanctions, which helped
strengthen the final product. I would also like to thank Calvin Wilder, who
helped with research and provided feedback on an early draft. In a similar
vein, I would like to acknowledge Aymenn Al-Tamimi, who read over and
helped fact-check the study. Of course, any remaining errors or omissions
are my own. Finally, I would like to thank the editing and publications team
at The Washington Institute, in particular Jason Warshof and Maria Radacsi,
without whom the paper would not sound or look as nice as it does.
1
Introduction
Pause for a moment, and try to imagine Osama bin Laden taking a selfie with
residents of Afghanistan. Or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi serving a hot meal of ful
(stewed fava beans) to locals at a restaurant in Iraq. This is not easy, given
the low profile each figure kept. Yet in early August 2020, Abu Muhammad
al-Jawlani, leader of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), did both
openly in Idlib and without worrying about operational security from potential
drones overhead.1 This was a long way even from Jawlani’s own initial media
release in late January 2012, when he did not show his face. The situation
changed in late July 2016, when he announced that his group at the time,
Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), was becoming Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS), a group con-
nected to no “outside entity.” He thus outwardly broke ties with al-Qaeda (AQ).2
This paper seeks to analyze HTS’s current status and provide a mul-
tifaceted look at the question of whether it should be removed from the
Department of State’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), as some
have suggested. It will also examine how HTS’s transition in recent years
fits within the broader trajectory of the jihadist movement. The paper will
explore the evolution of Jawlani’s public appearances and his evolving rhe-
torical focus, highlighting how HTS’s actions suggest the shift is more than
mere talk. From there, it will explore the group’s evolution from a traditional
terrorist group to an entity more akin to other authoritarian leaderships in
the region. It will also highlight the problematic views the group continues
to hold, despite no longer identifying or associating with the Islamic State
of Iraq (ISI) or AQ. To conclude, it will return to the question of whether HTS
should remain on or be removed from the terrorism list.
2 The Age of Political Jihadism
While many still view HTS through the lens of JN, the group has actually
operated as HTS longer than it did as JN—that is, not part of AQ and no
longer interested in global jihad. Therefore, it makes sense to consider its
actions since 2017 as more representative of its actual views and current
operating status. This statement should not be interpreted as an endorse-
ment of the group or a minimization of its past transgressions. However,
the challenge that HTS presents now is different and more complex from
the one it presented when it was part of the ISI or AQ.
The fact that Jawlani can freely move about Idlib to meet with various
actors and residents is evidence of a new stage in the jihadist movement’s
progress toward its goal of sustainable governance, and in many ways signals
de facto acceptance by certain international actors. In spring of 2021, the
former U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Ambassador
James Jeffrey, admitted that Washington had stopped directly targeting
Jawlani in August 2018.3 This remains U.S. policy today. HTS now poses the
same type of policy dilemma that has vexed Western governments vis-à-vis
other violent Islamist groups in power, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the
Taliban. Yet unlike Hezbollah and Hamas (Iran), but like the Taliban with
Pakistan and Qatar, HTS has a foreign backer (Turkey) that is a U.S. ally,
further complicating the policy conundrum.
In recent years, HTS broke ties with AQ and backed a civilian-led Syrian
Salvation Government (SSG) in northern Idlib and western Aleppo. Conse-
quently, some researchers who have spent time in HTS territory and have
met Jawlani suggest that, through engagement and assuming continued
changes in the group’s behavior, HTS should be considered for removal
from the U.S. list of designated terrorists.4 They argue that this approach
could be a model for dealing with other jihadist groups around the world
and could help end the seemingly endless “war on terror.” By contrast,
some Syrian researchers—as well as many local activists in HTS-controlled
territories—have rejected these calls, noting that “the experiences of local
victims in Syria should be of some account in the definition of political ter-
ror” and not purely framed “in relation to Western security needs” abroad.5
As for HTS itself, Jawlani has stated that he primarily wants two things from
the United States and the West: “There is no need for you to classify people
Introduction 3
avenue to be removed from the list at some future point if it makes certain
changes, which are discussed in the conclusion of the paper. In the review,
the United States could present its findings on the group’s ongoing terror-
ist activities or ties to other terrorist groups. Yet even if HTS is no longer
legally considered a terrorist group, it still could be sanctioned under other
authorities related to human rights abuses in the Syrian war, because of
authoritarian tendencies and human rights violations.
This paper does not specifically address how HTS has survived in recent
years; rather, it is limited to discussing the group’s current status and desig-
nation. These issues would be irrelevant, however, if Turkey were not sending
troops into Idlib and creating a frontline barrier to the Assad regime and
Russia, as well as using its drone force to deter further regime and Russian
action against the territories in which HTS operates. In August 2018, Turkey
designated HTS as a terrorist group,14 illustrating the country’s complicated
relationship with the group even as Turkey has become its de facto protector.
Introduction 5
Notes
Although the Syrian regime, led by President Bashar al-Assad, espouses the
goal of retaking all territory controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group
has survived and controlled territory without stirring up the same level of
international anxiety as when Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahedin (HSM) seized
parts of southern Somalia, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) took
over parts of southern Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
took parts of northern Mali, or the Islamic State took parts of western Iraq,
north-central Libya, and eastern Syria. It is important to understand why
this is so, and an analysis reopens debates about the difference between
jihadist “strategists” and “doctrinaires.” As the Norwegian scholar Brynjar
Lia noted, the debate is over “the general dilemma of how to strike a balance
between ideological purity and political utility.”1 HTS’s maneuvering over
the past few years could be the strongest and most successful jihadist case
seen thus far for a more pragmatic approach to day-to-day politics, auguring
what could be a trend of political jihadism over a more theologically forward
jihadist-Salafism. It should not be surprising that the Syrian war birthed
another variant within the broader jihadist camp. As the British scholar
Shiraz Maher has articulated in his book Salafi-Jihadism: The History of an
Idea, “All the major ideational shifts [within the jihadist movement] have
come in response to war.”2
In some respects, HTS and Jawlani are following the path forged by their
fellow Syrian jihadist, Abu Musab al-Suri, more than fifteen years ago in his
1,600-page treatise, The Global Islamic Resistance Call. This text discusses
al-Suri’s objections to Salafism as professed by many jihadists and calls it a
8 The Age of Political Jihadism
advantage in shaping how children grow up to view the world based on HTS’s
interpretations of Islam.10
Jawlani’s comment related to Salafists and jihadists echoes an earlier
statement by leading jihadist ideologue Abu Qatada al-Filistini in October
2018, after rival ideologue Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi criticized him for
10 The Age of Political Jihadism
the group would create “the rule of Islam.” This underscores the hope of
an Islamic state as the group’s ultimate goal.15 In the video released in
February 2022, Jawlani spoke of the humiliation of the umma in the present
era, the attempts to erase its identity, and the hope for a revival of its past
glory through the mujahedin.16 Moreover, one of HTS’s senior ideologues,
Yahya bin Tahir al-Farghali (Abu al-Fatah al-Farghali), produced a video
series from 2019–20 titled The Road to the Caliphate: History of the Jihadist
Movements from the Muslim Brotherhood to the Shami Jihad.17 The formation of
HTS is portrayed as a new stage and chapter in the fifth generation of those
working to revive the caliphate,18 suggesting that the revival of the caliphate
is a project to which HTS subscribes even if it does not purport to be the
group that represents the Caliphate. This is in contrast to the Islamic State’s
own assumption of this authority.
Since the 1960s and 1970s, the jihadist movement has advanced in its
capabilities and capacities. This has allowed it to pass through various stages
that have built off one another over time. The stages have not necessarily
been mutually exclusive once the next phase has begun. The stages can be
divided as follows:
Abdul Rahim Atun lectures in Idlib, September 2021. His talk is titled “Jihad and
Resistance in the Islamic World: The Taliban as a Model.”
The Development of Political Jihadism 13
Notes
2017 back to Jawlani, since HTS dropped the pretense of having al-Sheikh
as the effective leader of the group.20
In the view of both its proponents and critics, the creation of HTS marked
the final breaking of ties with AQ. Any remaining AQ elements who had
decided to remain with JFS for the sake of maintaining unity in the ranks
broke off and refused to sign on to HTS. The most notable example was Sami
al-Uraydi, who denounced what he saw as insubordination to Zawahiri.21
The jihadist ideologue Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi was also critical
of HTS’s move away from AQ. He viewed their decision as diluting the
group’s original manhaj (methodology) as it pertained to living up to strict
adherence to AQ and the jihadist movement’s traditional views on tawhid
(monotheism).22 In the late fall of 2017, HTS arrested some of the AQ veterans
who had complained about Jawlani’s maneuvers.23 After their eventual
release, some of these figures became involved in the creation of a new AQ
branch in Syria called Huras al-Din (HD), whose existence was first publicly
announced in February 2018.24 In October 2018, HD set up the Wa Harid
al-Mouminin (And Incite the Believers) Operations Room in conjunction
with two smaller jihadist groups, Jabhat Ansar al-Din (which had broken off
from HTS) and Jamaat Ansar al-Islam (an Iraqi group that now primarily
operates in northwest Syria).
However, since HTS was controlling the areas that HD operated in, HTS
expected HD not to run afoul of HTS’s authority and policies, in return for
which HTS tolerated the group and perhaps even provided logistical sup-
port for some the frontline positions maintained by HD. According to Abu
al-Laith al-Halabi, who described himself as an HTS fighter and has run
one of the more well-known pro-HTS channels on Telegram, “HTS provides
expenditures of food and ammunition for [HD] on a daily basis.”25 In this
way, HTS initially attempted to shape HD’s activities to prevent HD from
going outside the bounds of what HTS was attempting to accomplish. As this
author wrote in September 2019, “If [HD] were to grow significantly stronger,
HTS may try to suppress it and arrest its leaders in order to preserve its own
power base. In that sense, HD’s local growth potential is somewhat limited.”26
In many ways, this is what occurred. On June 12, 2020, HD, alongside its
two partners in the Wa Harid al-Mouminin Operations Room, established a
20 The Age of Political Jihadism
new operations room called “Fa-thbutu” (So Be Steadfast) that also included
the groups Tansiqiyat al-Jihad and Liwa al-Muqatilin al-Ansar.27 The leaders
of the latter two groups, Abu al-Abd Ashida and Abu al-Malik al-Talli, respec-
tively, had falling-outs with HTS over the direction of the jihad, relations with
Turkey, and corruption issues. Similarly, ahead of this announcement, Abu
Salah al-Uzbeki, the leader of the Uzbek Katibat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad that was
aligned with HTS, switched his allegiance from HTS to Jabhat Ansar al-Din,
thereby adding further strength to this alternative jihadist bloc.
As a consequence of these shifting alliances and the bolstering of the HD-
led alternative jihad, HTS arrested Uzbeki on June 17 and Talli on June 22,
2020. This led the new Fa-thbutu Operations Room to warn HTS that it would
“bear the consequences in this world and the hereafter” if it did not release
its leaders or submit to a religious court.28 HTS retroactively claimed, in a
circular by its Higher Follow-Up and Supervision Committee, that individuals
needed authorization to either leave the group or join other groups.29 HTS
saw the formation of this new operations room and the defections as an
unacceptable challenge to its authority. The same rationale of asserting its
authority and control had prompted the group to crack down on nonjihadist
rivals in 2017–19. These included HASI, which ultimately agreed to accept
HTS authority in northwest Syria, and Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, which
broke off from HTS after initially joining the group and maintained its own
fiefdom in the west Aleppo countryside that was then dismantled by HTS.
HTS’s arrests of Uzbeki and Talli and the perceived lack of transparency
behind them led to infighting between HTS and the Fa-thbutu Operations
Room in the communities of Arab Said, al-Hamamah, al-Yaqubiyah, Jday-
dah, Armanaz, Kuku, and Sheikh Bahar over the next few days until truces
were brokered as HTS overpowered HD and its allies.30 This led HTS on
June 26, 2020, to proclaim a ban on establishing any new factions or new
military operations rooms, and that the only military efforts that could be
conducted would be via its own al-Fatah al-Mubin (The Clear Conquest)
military operations room.31 As a result, HTS shut down HD’s military bases,
and the Fa-thbutu operations room was effectively dissolved. Since then,
there has been no evidence publicly that HTS has continued to provide HD
any operational support. HD’s only operations since then have been covert
Jawlani’s Path to Political Jihadism 21
attacks conducted elsewhere in Syria well outside of Idlib and its environs.
Of the other factions in the Fa-thbutu operations room, only Jamaat Ansar al-
Islam reached an understanding with HTS that has permitted it to continue
conducting military operations on the front lines.
The takedown of AQ’s de facto branch in Syria highlights the differences
between HTS and the Taliban. The latter effectively ignores the issue of
AQ in Afghanistan and attempts to deceive everyone about AQ’s presence
and/or its connections to the Taliban. In contrast, HTS has gone after AQ in
Syria, even though its primary motives for doing so were asserting HTS’s
own authority rather than a desire to prove its counterterrorism bona fides
to the West. Therefore, while some might try to draw similar conclusions
about the two groups, their approaches to AQ are very different.
Since the crackdown on HD, HTS has also gone after other independent
foreign fighters and their related groups that did not submit to its authority.
Most notably, HTS dismantled the independent Junud al-Sham led by Muslim
Shishani and Jundallah led by Abu Fatimah al-Turki in October 2021.32
Muzamjir al-Sham, a Syrian Islamist critic of HTS, calls the group’s current
prison system “Idlib’s Guantanamo” since at least 170 foreign fighters are
allegedly imprisoned by the group.33
At the same time, there are other foreign fighters and designated foreign
terrorist groups that have submitted to HTS’s writ.34 This shows that foreign
fighters and foreign groups remain an issue for the United States, even if
HTS has challenged other foreign fighters and foreign terrorist groups that
are America’s enemies.
22 The Age of Political Jihadism
Notes
1. Rania Abouzeid, “The Jihad Next Door,” Politico, June 23, 2014,
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/al-qaeda-iraq-
syria-108214; Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, “About the Fields of
al-Sham,” al-Manarah al-Bayda Foundation for Media Production,
April 10, 2013, https://bit.ly/3IRSMrf.
2. Yassin al-Haj Saleh, Impossible Revolution: Making Sense of the Syrian
Tragedy (Chicago: Haymarket, 2017), 185.
3. Aaron Y. Zelin, “Rally ’Round the Jihadist,” Foreign Policy, December
11, 2012, https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/12/11/rally-round-
the-jihadist.
4. Abu Bakr al-Hussayni al-Qurayshi al-Baghdadi, “Announcement
of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,” al-Furqan Foundation for
Media Production, April 9, 2013, https://bit.ly/3tVnbRq.
5. Jawlani, “About the Fields of al-Sham,” https://bit.ly/3IRSMrf.
6. Aaron Y. Zelin, “Inside Baseball on Syrian Rebel Infighting,” War on
the Rocks, February 7, 2014, https://warontherocks.com/2014/02/
inside-baseball-on-syrian-rebel-infighting; Aaron Y. Zelin, The War
Between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement,
Research Note 20 (Washington DC: Washington Institute, 2014),
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-war-
between-isis-and-al-qaeda-for-supremacy-of-the-global-jihadist.
7. Liz Sly, “The Rise and Ugly Fall of a Moderate Syrian Rebel Offers
Lessons for the West,” Washington Post, January 5, 2015, https://www.
washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-rise-and-ugly-fall-of-a-
moderate-syrian-rebel-offers-lessons-for-the-west/2015/01/04/
3889db38-80da-4974-b1ef-1886f4183624_story.html; Liz Sly, “Syrian
Rebel Group That Got U.S. Aid Dissolves,” Washington Post, March 1, 2015,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-fighter-group-that-got-
us-missiles-dissolves-after-major-defeat/2015/03/01/286fa934-c048-
11e4-a188-8e4971d37a8d_story.html.
8. Jaish al-Fatah, “Message to Our People in Idlib,” March 24, 2015,
https://bit.ly/387IqH3.
9. Charles Lister, “The Syria Effect: Al-Qaeda Fractures,” Current Trends
in Islamist Ideology, December 11, 2019, https://www.hudson.org/
research/15533-the-syria-effect-al-qaeda-fractures.
Jawlani’s Path to Political Jihadism 23
10. Charles Lister, “How al-Qa’ida Lost Control of Its Syrian Affiliate: The
Inside Story,” CTC Sentinel 11, no. 2 (February 2018), https://ctc.usma.
edu/al-qaida-lost-control-syrian-affiliate-inside-story.
11. Andrew Osborn and Phil Stewart, “Russia Begins Syria Air Strikes
in Its Biggest Mideast Intervention in Decades,” Reuters, September
30, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia/
russia-begins-syria-air-strikes-in-its-biggest-mideast-intervention-
in-decades-idUSKCN0RU0MG20150930.
12. Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, “‘Announcing Its Formation,’” July 28,
2016, https://bit.ly/3iQfbur.
13. Sheikh Ahmad Hasan Abu al-Khayr, “A Word,” al-Manarah al-Bayda
Foundation for Media Production, July 28, 2016, https://bit.ly/3JZeHOB.
14. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “The Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham–al-Qaeda
Dispute: Primary Texts (II),” December 10, 2017, https://www.
aymennjawad.org/2017/12/the-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-qaeda-
dispute-primary-1.
15. Cole Bunzel, “Abandoning al-Qaida: Tahrir al-Sham and the Concerns
of Sami al-Uraydi,” Jihadica, May 12, 2017, http://www.jihadica.com/
abandoning-al-qaida.
16. “Abu Julaybib wa Abu Khadija al-Urduniyan Yanshaqqan an Fatah
al-Sham” [Jordanian Abu Julaybib and Abu Khadija Split from Fatah
al-Sham], Arabi 21, August 22, 2016, https://bit.ly/3Dpx6BP.
17. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “The Formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham
and Wider Tensions in the Syrian Insurgency,” CTC Sentinel 10, no. 2
(February 2017), https://ctc.usma.edu/the-formation-of-hayat-tahrir-
al-sham-and-wider-tensions-in-the-syrian-insurgency.
18. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, “Formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” January
28, 2017, https://bit.ly/3JZUuYX.
19. Al-Shaykh, “First Words,” https://bit.ly/3LpXEFC.
20. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, “Administrative Decision,” October 1, 2017,
https://bit.ly/372KAqQ.
21. Bunzel, “Abandoning al-Qaida,” http://www.jihadica.com/
abandoning-al-qaida.
22. Cole Bunzel, “Diluting Jihad: Tahrir al-Sham and the Concerns of
Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi,” Jihadica, March 29, 2017, http://www.
jihadica.com/diluting-jihad.
23. Lister, “How al-Qa’ida Lost Control of Its Syrian Affiliate,” https://ctc.
usma.edu/al-qaida-lost-control-syrian-affiliate-inside-story.
24 The Age of Political Jihadism
Reading the words above, one might think they were uttered by a nation’s
Finance Ministry official. In fact, these are Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani’s
opening remarks at an emergency session of the HTS Syrian Salvation
Government’s General Shura Council in November 2021, wherein he com-
mented on the aftermath of Turkey’s lira crisis and its effect on the price
of bread in Idlib.
These words are a far cry from Jawlani’s fiery speech when he announced
Jabhat al-Nusra’s creation in late January 2012 to “return God’s authority
to the Earth and take revenge for the violated chastity and bloodshed, and
bring a smile to children and widows.”1 Yet while Jawlani now focuses on
26 The Age of Political Jihadism
Jawlani discusses the crisis associated with bread prices with the Syrian Salvation
Government’s General Shura Council.
a wider array of issues, when it comes to fighting, he still uses a tone that
easily fits that of a leader of the Islamic State or al-Qaeda. In February 2020,
for example, he said this to a group of elite HTS fighters:
Therefore, even if HTS has moved away from using takfir (pronouncements
of apostasy) and focuses on local rather than global jihad,3 the worldview
of its leadership and members remains extreme. But unlike before, when
HTS was more purist and blindingly loyal to minutiae in its ideology, today
the group and Jawlani recognize limits to following the path of entities like
AQ or IS. For Jawlani, the ideal of implementing sharia is a comprehensive
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 27
about their true identity. Tartusi understood that for the mujahedin’s safety
some have to cover their faces, but those representing the group should
show themselves and reveal their identity—something that would hopefully
help the masses sympathize with the group’s cause. However, Jawlani’s
modus operandi would remain intact until he appeared unmasked when
announcing JN’s disaffiliation with AQ and becoming JFS, before eventually
becoming HTS.7
By the time the United States designated JN as a terrorist group, Tartusi’s
reservations about the group were irrelevant to actors on the ground. The
Syrian National Council (SNC), which was then the face of the revolution,
released a statement rejecting the U.S. designation. The SNC, which at
the time had considerable influence in opposition politics, countered that
the Assad regime’s massacres were the true terrorism in Syria.8 The Syr-
ian Muslim Brotherhood’s deputy leader also stated that the decision to
designate Jabhat al-Nusra was “very wrong.”9 The chief of staff of the Free
Syrian Army at the time, Brig. Gen. Salim Idris, added that Jabhat al-Nusra
was not a terrorist organization, and depended on young, educated Syrians
for its efforts.10 More than a hundred different revolutionary Facebook
pages issued a statement denouncing the American designation of Jabhat
al-Nusra as a terrorist group. The statement called for naming the following
Friday—the day on which Syrian revolutionaries would protest weekly—as
“No to American intervention—we are all Jabhat al-Nusra.”11
After garnering the support of locals in 2012, Jawlani’s interview with
Frontline in spring 2021 can be seen as an entree into influencing more
Western publics. It is a natural extension of his public diplomacy to gain
acceptance within the Arab sphere outside Syria with his appearances on
Al Jazeera between 2013 and 2016. These interviews provided a larger
platform and other forms of legitimacy to Jawlani’s cause. In his first
appearance in December 2013, one can see echoes of his vision even
though he was still within the IS and AQ orbit: “This isn’t just about sha-
ria (Islamic law) courts, but also a sharia vision for the distribution of
municipal services...for a functioning state that performs normal state
functions effectively: delivering electricity, building hospitals, issuing
marriage licenses, etc.”12
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 29
Jawlani distributes gifts at an event for children of martyrs, Eid al-Fitr, June 2018.
while meeting a delegation of tribal sheikhs, Jawlani stated that “the current
stage is one of preparation and institution building” that will pave the way
for an eventual victory. “Every institution we build in the liberated areas
represents a step toward Damascus...Our battle is on every level. It’s not
just a military battle, because construction is harder than war. There are
many hardships.”18 Thus, it was not surprising to see Jawlani appear at the
January 2022 inauguration of a widened road that connects Bab al-Hawa
to Aleppo, explaining that these projects are building blocks to a better life
for local residents. “Freedom comes from military strength...and dignity
comes from economic and investment projects, through which the people
and the citizens live a dignified life that befits Muslims.”19
Limitations
There is no doubt that HTS and its civilian governing body, the Syrian Salvation
Government, are implementing public works projects to improve the lives of
people residing in their territories. However, there are limitations to what they
can do to improve people’s lives on account of the limited economic assets
in HTS’s territory (in contrast to the earlier years when JN had influence in
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 31
oil-rich Deir al-Zour province), but also because the value of the Syrian pound
and the Turkish lira has dropped precipitously in recent years.20 While some
claim that the SSG “cannot be considered an offshoot of the management of
HTS,”21 others like Nisreen Al-Zaraee and Karam Shaar note that the SSG “is
no more than a tool to provide the ‘legal’ and administrative frameworks for
HTS’s takeover of the region’s economy and resources.”22
The fact that Jawlani is increasingly appearing as part of the SSG’s
work—for example, in late January 2022 at an emergency session related
to winter conditions at IDP camps to announce the “Your Warmth Is Our
Duty” campaign23—underscores the fig leaf nature of the SSG, which was
originally created to obscure the role of HTS as having ultimate control
of everything. While HTS does not micromanage all levers of the SSG, the
government would not be permitted to execute a decision that ran afoul of
HTS.24 It is not surprising, then, that following his speech introducing “Your
Warmth Is Our Duty” at IDP camps in Sarmada and Deir Hassan, Jawlani
stated that HTS would be leading the campaign alongside the SSG.25
Likewise, key figures such as Mazhar al-Ways and Anas Ayrut, the former
a key HTS ideologue and the latter a member of the HTS-backed Supreme
32 The Age of Political Jihadism
In addition, locals complain of HTS seizing territory under its own ver-
sion of eminent domain to take property and gentrify areas for the benefit
of their leaders.30 In July 2021, for example, HTS and the SSG allegedly
decided to demolish the bazaar in Darat Izza and turn it into a shopping
center, sparking local protests.31 Eventually, the bazaar was demolished
and a mall was built on the site. HTS leaders are also involved in a number
of construction projects. Because the civilian SSG is a component of HTS’s
statecraft, those in key positions are able to exploit that relationship at the
expense of regular residents in areas controlled by HTS. “The majority of
investment operations and projects owned by HTS leaders are carried out
through civilian intermediaries close to the leaders, who act as fronts behind
which the real investors hide.”32
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 33
According to the International Crisis Group, this has led to “HTS’s eco-
nomic activity...creat[ing] a network of Syrians throughout the northwest
dependent on the group and vested in its survival.”33 This is why even though
in Jawlani’s address about the economic situation in Idlib following the fall
of the Turkish lira in November 2021, in which he promised that bread
would be subsidized,34 this does not solve the long-term issue and further
degrades the quality of life of the people in the area, since they become ever
more reliant on HTS to survive.
This monopolization of different industries has led to protests, since HTS
can control the price of different commodities. For example, in mid-October
2021, after the HTS-affiliated Watad fuel company raised the price of gas
cylinders for the fifth time in a month, local residents came out in al-Saa
Square in central Idlib to demonstrate against price gouging.35 One sarcastic
slogan among the many shouted during the protest was “We are drowning
in your salvation!” in reference to HTS’s civil administration.36
Likewise, measures that ostensibly would help HTS’s SSG fund various
projects in the areas in which it operates are punitive to the point that it
could severely limit people’s livelihoods. For instance, the SSG’s General
Directorate of Transport issued a decision in early 2018 requiring that all
motorcycles be registered within one month, with a penalty of doubling the
registration fees and impounding the motorcycle.37 As a follow-up, on April 4,
2021, the SSG ruled that unregistered vehicles would be confiscated.38 This
led individuals like Dioub, as reported by Jalal Suleiman, to register the[ir]
motorcycle and pay a fine, but to do so he “will have to borrow the money”
and therefore go into debt.39 This is a hardship for people like Dioub, whose
situation is typical of many in HTS territories, since his motorcycle was his
only means of transportation and without it he would not be able to work
and provide for his wife and six children.40
The situation in HTS territory is so dire that it has become the norm to see
children toiling in the streets.41 Some of them are coerced into engaging in
smuggling activities, while others sell napkins, chewing gum, sweets, corn,
and hummus on the sidewalks of cities, villages, and IDP camps.42 On top of
the economic pressures, HTS also forces children to attend its training camps
to become child soldiers. A video entitled “Generation of Conquerors,” likely
34 The Age of Political Jihadism
only meant for internal use, which this author accessed, shows children doing
military drills at an HTS training camp in late November 2020.43 The video
also included a speech around a campfire by HTS ideologue Sharih al-Himsi.
This is not mere propaganda. In late May 2020, on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr,
Jawlani greeted a group of children to celebrate the end of the holiday. During
his speech, he told the children, “we are all on the path to martyrdom.” In the
same video, among other gifts for children, he gave a small child a toy gun.44
At the conclusion of his speech, Jawlani said that the martyrs have “preceded
us to paradise,” but that he and the rest of the audience are, “God willing,
right behind them.”45 These remarks illustrate the militarized approach that
Jawlani and HTS take with children in the territory it controls.
Overall, the more that Jawlani shifts to focusing on governing territory
in addition to the military activities that HTS is already engaged in, the
more he is likely to become embroiled in local battles for legitimacy if HTS
is unable to improve people’s lives over the long term. Consequently, HTS
appears increasingly to resemble a traditional Arab government in terms
of its activities among the local population.
Authoritarianism
Beyond the economic realm, there are limitations on the degree to which
local people can act without harassment or being jailed. HTS’s SSG is not
a democracy, a form of government that the group continues to reject.46
There is no true check on HTS’s or Jawlani’s power. Although the SSG holds
elections for its technocratic ministries and the Shura Council, the list of
eligible candidates is pre-selected, and only certain people are allowed to
vote. No women are allowed to vote or hold any senior-level positions in the
SSG.47 Consequently, the process is elite and male-driven, and most residents
in HTS territory have no role in it or in who decides on the rules of society.
Local residents live at the whim of this small cohort.
Furthermore, this system benefits the local Sunni population, to the
detriment of minorities residing in the territories HTS controls. Much of
Jawlani’s messaging is about the existential threat that Sunnis face and his
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 35
Confirmation voting for SSG prime minister Ali Keda, December 2021.
don’t get to have a public trial or to know the evidence on which the decision
was made against them.”61 This picture of a lack of legal transparency is
corroborated in an article by Abu al-Yaqdhan al-Masri, an Egyptian cleric
who was previously in HTS, who also discussed torture in prisons.62 One of
the many protests by locals was held in the Mashhad Ruhin IDP camp in
Idlib countryside on August 20, 2021, where protesters called for the release
of detainees held by the group.”63 Similar protests occurred in Atarib and
al-Baraka IDP camp in late October 2021, and in Deir Hassan in late January
2022.64 In response, individuals involved in protests or comments online
have allegedly been forced to publish videos of themselves apologizing to
HTS and its leader Jawlani.65
While Jawlani claims that “there is no torture” in the HTS prison system,66
the UN Human Rights Council points to evidence that the group has “tar-
geted dissenting civilians and routinely tortured and subjected them to
ill-treatment in detention facilities.”67 The most notorious for ill-treatment
and torture according to the report are the Shahin section of the Idlib central
prison, the Harem central prison, and the al-Uqab prison, which consists
of caves and underground cells in the Jabal al-Zawiya region.68 Based on
113 direct accounts of torture or inhumane treatment, “victims described
detention in overcrowded and unhygienic cells that, compounded by the
lack of medical care, allowed for the spread of communicable diseases.”69
On top of this, torture methods included “severe beatings, placing detainees
in a ‘coffin,’ in a dulab (tire), or suspending them by their limbs.”70 Even
more disturbing, several male former detainees, according to the report,
“described being sexually harassed, forced to strip naked, electrocuted on
their genitals and raped in HTS facilities.”71 Other reporting has also provided
strong evidence that women are being abducted, tortured, and raped in
HTS prisons.72 Based on this and other data in the UN report, the Human
Rights Council concluded that HTS actions in its prison system amounted
to “crime(s) against humanity of torture.”73
Beyond regular activists, HTS also conducts these types of activities
against its jihadist rivals in AQ and IS. According to Muzamjir al-Sham, al-
Badiyah prison in Idlib city specializes in dealing with AQ prisoners, while
al-Zanbaqi prison in western Idlib governorate is where IS members are
38 The Age of Political Jihadism
has not changed even if HTS wants to give the appearance that it has, since
it is now under its civilian governing body.
According to Syrian journalist Mohammed Hardan, some of the tasks of
the hisbah are to “prevent men and women from mixing in public places by
erecting control points on university campuses and in parks, preventing men
from selling women’s clothes, banning the display of mannequins at shops,
monitoring wedding halls, and banning music and smoking. In addition, it
is known to interfere with women’s clothing and accessories and forcing
humanitarian organizations to separate their staff by gender.”81 This has
given free rein to HTS hisbah patrols to beat up, flog, or imprison violators.
In the aforementioned UN Human Rights Council’s report, it documented
many cases of women being detained by HTS for traveling without a male
member of their family (mahram) or for being inappropriately dressed.82
These are just a few examples:
These types of actions are accepted even among those less extreme in their
religious beliefs due to a culture of toxic masculinity, Syrian researcher
and professor of pedagogy Raymond al-Maalouli argues. “Authorities in
the north rely in their decisions on strict fatawa (plural of fatwa) that have
nothing to do with the essence of Islam but are in line with society’s toxic
masculinity,” as he explains it. “They produce restrictions out of wrong
jurisprudence, old social customs, and masculine culture standards that
help men feel righteous and in control over the women in their lives.”88 This
is why women have a difficult time performing the most basic functions
such as driving. Even though, based on a report from Hadia
Mansour, “there
is no law or circular preventing women from driving in northwest Syria,
society continues to enforce restrictions on women, claiming driving to
be a men’s right only.”89 Asma al-Mahmoud, an NGO worker in the region,
explained that she “encountered lots of harassment by security elements
on checkpoints and was frequently questioned about why she was driving
without a legal male escort.”90
These frustrations around HTS’s treatment of the local population have
led to dissent by opposition media to varying degrees over time. Most notori-
ous is the case of Radio Fresh, a station run by local activists in the town of
Kafr Nabl, created in 2013 following the revolutionary uprising. In January
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 41
2016, HTS’s predecessor group JN stormed the facilities of Radio Fresh for
its alleged “secular tendencies and support of apostates.”91 This resulted
in the arrests of Radio Fresh’s founder Raed Fares and Hadi al-Abdullah as
well as the station being taken off the air, its equipment confiscated, and
its archives wiped clean.92 As a consequence of Fares continuing to critique
HTS, he and his colleague Hamoud Junaid, were assassinated by HTS in
November 2018. According to Fares, a year prior to his assassination, Bilal
al-Shawashi, a Tunisian foreign fighter and HTS’s head sharia official in
Kafr Nabl, harassed him and tried to exile him from his hometown.93 This
came after numerous failed attempts by HTS and its predecessor groups to
assassinate Fares in years prior.94
Less violent but just as relevant, on August 24, 2021, HTS shut down
opposition news channel Orient TV’s office in Idlib on account of the vague
reasoning of “the channel’s bias and hostile policy toward local factions.”95
This is in some ways a culmination of HTS’s policies to try to rein in dissent
by requiring all journalists that work in its territory to get press cards.96 While
this decision is no doubt a way to formalize HTS’s governing structures that
might be seen in any country, it is also a bureaucratic tool to block certain
actors from gaining access to a press card. In turn, if such an individual tried
to report without one, HTS could penalize the individual with fines or jail,
thereby silencing journalists who are perceived to be an irritant for HTS.
Of course, many individuals have still been able to receive press cards,97
but others like those still affiliated with Radio Fresh, such as the station’s
current chief executive, Abdullah Klido, are in a bureaucratic black hole.
“We need 100 approvals.”98
Lastly, there is the case of the pseudonymous pro-AQ HTS critic, called
Radd Udwan al-Bughat on Telegram, which was run by an individual who
calls himself Abu Abd Allah al-Shami. On November 16, 2021, he announced
that he was closing his Telegram account due to intimidating messages
sent from HTS officials, which allegedly threatened to reveal the identities
and locations of Radd Udwan al-Bughat’s relatives who lived in Assad-
regime-controlled areas of Syria.99 This would have meant putting them
in danger of arrest or worse. The case illustrates how far HTS would go to
undermine its active critics. Such actions were formalized in late February
2022 through the creation of HTS’s official cyber entity called the Electronic
Jihad Army.100 It would not be surprising if HTS has also used similar tactics
against nonjihadist activists.
In view of the above, it is evident that while Jawlani and HTS are attempt-
ing to distance themselves from their past associations with AQ and IS, they
have turned in many ways into a local regime that acts like other regional
authoritarian states. The question for policymakers is whether Washington
should overlook this as it does with its allies in the region.
Before addressing this question, it is worth reexploring actions taken by
HTS and its predecessor groups. It would be poor policy for Washington or
any European capital to completely ignore major transgressions by Jawlani
and HTS. If HTS is serious about wanting to engage with the United States
and the West, it must be held to account as well as provide restitution to
those whom it has wronged.
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 43
Notes
42. Ibid.
43. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, “Generation of Conquerors,” November 30,
2020, https://bit.ly/3qSarZQ.
44. Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, “Greeting the Children of the Martyrs on
the Occasion of Id al-Fitr,” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Media Office, May 26,
2020, https://bit.ly/3qRnSsX.
45. Ibid.
46. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “A Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Perspective
on Democracy,” February 9, 2019, https://www.aymennjawad.
org/2019/02/a-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-perspective-on-democracy.
47. For more on these obstacles, see Hadia Mansour, “Women Excluded
from Administrative Representation in Northern Syria, Says Female
Activists,” Enab Baladi, April 1, 2022, https://english.enabbaladi.
net/archives/2022/04/women-excluded-from-administrative-
representation-in-northern-syria-says-female-activists.
48. Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, “Shaykh Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani in an
Exclusive Interview with al-Jazeera,” September 17, 2016, https://bit.
ly/3uG05gN.
49. Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, “Congratulations on the Occasion of
the Blessed Id al Adha 1439 H,” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Media Office,
August 21, 2018, https://bit.ly/36IeO2I.
50. Jawlani, “A Session with Inghimasis,” https://bit.ly/3NxBpQ4.
51. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s Abu al-Fatah
al-Farghali on Minority Sects,” June 17, 2021, http://www.aymennjawad.
org/2021/06/hayat-tahrir-al-sham-abu-al-fatah-al-farghali-on.
52. Al-Zaraee and Shaar, “The Economics of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,”
https://www.mei.edu/publications/economics-hayat-tahrir-al-sham;
and Khalifa and Bonsey, “In Idlib, Washington’s Chance to Reimagine
Counter-Terrorism,” https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-
africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/syrias-idlib-washingtons-
chance-reimagine-counter-terrorism.
53. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, “Druze
Clues,” Foreign Affairs, October 5, 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.
com/articles/syria/2015-10-05/druze-clues; and Aymenn Jawad
Al-Tamimi, “Additional Notes on the Druze of Jabal al-Summaq,”
October 6, 2015, https://www.aymennjawad.org/2015/10/additional-
notes-on-the-druze-of-jabal-al-summaq.
48 The Age of Political Jihadism
al-monitor.com/originals/2021/11/syrian-jihadist-group-mandates-
apologies-or-imprisonment-criticism.
66. Martin Smith, “The Jihadist: Abu Mohammad al-Jolani,” Frontline,
February 1 and February 14, 2021, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/
frontline/interview/abu-mohammad-al-jolani.
67. “Arbitrary Imprisonment and Detention—Report on Syria,” https://
www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/IICISyria/Pages/Detention-report.
aspx.
68. Ibid.
69. Ibid.
70. Ibid.
71. Ibid.
72. Alaa Nassar, “Like Being in Assad’s Prisons: Female Survivors Recall
Their Ordeals in HTS Cells,” Syria Direct, January 7, 2021, https://
syriadirect.org/like-being-in-assads-prisons-female-survivors-recall-
their-ordeals-in-hts-cells-2.
73. “Arbitrary Imprisonment and Detention—Report on Syria,” https://www.
ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/IICISyria/Pages/Detention-report.aspx.
74. See a full thread by Muzamjir al-Sham on HTS’s prison system:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1477315507334361089.html.
75. Ibid.
76. All videos are available in Bilal Abd al-Karim’s OGN TV YouTube
channel archive: https://www.youtube.com/c/OGNTV/videos.
77. “Umm Maymouna: ‘HTS Detained & Beat Me,’” YouTube video, 30:25,
posted by “OGN TV,” August 24, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=QAp3zrgElEA.
78. Hasan Arfeh, “‘Sawa’id Al-Khair’ Interferes with Humanitarian Work
in Idlib,” Atlantic Council, March 9, 2018, https://www.atlanticcouncil.
org/blogs/syriasource/sawa-id-al-khair-interferes-with-
humanitarian-work-in-idlib.
79. Mohammed Hardan, “Syrian Jihadist Group in Idlib Replaces
Security Squad with ‘Moral Police,’” Al-Monitor, September
13, 2021, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/
syrian-jihadist-group-idlib-replaces-security-squad-moral-police.
80. Salvation Government, “Guardians of Virtue,” Ministry of
Endowments, Dawa, and Guidance, September 1, 2021, https://
syriansg.org/18725.
50 The Age of Political Jihadism
81. Ibid.
82. “Arbitrary Imprisonment and Detention—Report on Syria,” https://
www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/IICISyria/Pages/Detention-report.
aspx.
83. Hardan, “Jihadist Group Replaces Security Squad with ‘Moral
Police,’” https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/
syrian-jihadist-group-idlib-replaces-security-squad-moral-police.
84. Ibid.
85. Ibid.
86. Zeinab Masri, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Guards ‘Virtue’ by Imposing
Restrictions on Women in Syria’s Idlib,” Enab Baladi, October 24,
2021, https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2021/10/hayat-tahrir-
al-sham-guards-virtue-by-imposing-restrictions-on-women-in-
syrias-idlib.
87. Ibid.
88. Jana al-Issa and Diana Rahima, “Caught Between Rigid Beliefs and
Toxic Masculinity: Women in Northwestern Syria,” Enab Baladi,
November 7, 2021, https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2021/11/
caught-between-rigid-beliefs-and-toxic-masculinity-women-in-
northwestern-syria.
89. Hadia Mansour, “Women Drivers in Idlib Defy Society-Based
‘Mahram’ Law,” Enab Baladi, November 28, 2021, https://english.
enabbaladi.net/archives/2021/11/women-drivers-in-idlib-defy-
society-based-mahram-law.
90. Ibid.
91. Maya Gebeily, “Qaeda in Syria Briefly Abducts Prominent Media
Activists,” Agence France-Presse, January 10, 2016, available at
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/qaeda-abducts-media-
activists-syria-rebel-town-105055383.html.
92. Haid Haid, HTS’s Offline Propaganda: Infrastructure, Engagement
and Monopoly (London: International Centre for the Study of
Radicalisation, 2019), https://icsr.info/2019/09/18/htss-offline-
propaganda-infrastructure-engagement-and-monopoly.
93. Interview with Raed Fares, November 7, 2017.
94. Oula Alrifai, “In Memoriam: Raed Fares and the Banners of
Kafranbel,” Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, December 12,
2018, https://jmepp.hkspublications.org/2018/12/12/in-memoriam-
raed-fares-and-the-banners-of-kafranbel.
From Secrecy to Engagement with Locals 51
The previous chapter highlighted the many ways in which Hayat Tahrir al-
Sham and its predecessor groups imposed their will, including by forcibly
converting Druze to Sunni Islam, confiscating property from Christians,
and assassinating the Syrian revolutionary icon Raed Fares. This chapter
will identify other reprehensible actions perpetrated by HTS’s predecessor
groups. Especially noteworthy are their provision of the initial space for
the Islamic State to operate and become what it became, their conduct of
a military campaign that sought to ethnically cleanse Alawites (includ-
ing civilians) from parts of the Latakia countryside, and their kidnapping,
imprisonment, and torture of two Western journalists.
ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra members come together at Eid al-Adha, October 2013.
54 The Age of Political Jihadism
space that JN gave to ISIS provide the latter with new fighters, weapons, and
greater financial stability; it also helped undermine the fight by nonjihadist
rebels against the Assad regime. A large portion of the territory that had
previously been under nonjihadist rebel control would fall under ISIS and
its successor group, the Islamic State, in the months and year to come.
Likewise, a large part of ISIS’s campaign and initial dispute with JN was
over Jawlani and JN’s refusal to do Baghdadi’s bidding and assassinate
key Syrian activists and rebel leaders given that ISIS viewed them all as
apostates.6 From that point forward, ISIS was able to use its new resources
to take territory in Iraq, which in turn helped it consolidate its control in
eastern Syria.
In many ways, the initial entrance of JN into the Syrian conflict, which in
turn provided the space for ISIS to enter, helped seal the fate of the Syrian
opposition and rebellion, ending any chance it may have had to topple the
Assad regime. It is plausible that the opposition and revolutionaries still
would have eventually failed due to the sheer barbarity of the regime, but
the entrance of jihadists and their foreign fighter cohort reduced any chance
of outside help that could have facilitated the fall of the Assad regime, lest
the country fall into the hands of either JN or ISIS.
Beginning on August 4, 2013, the first day of Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end
of Ramadan, JN, ISIS, and other Salafi insurgent groups began a campaign
against Alawite territories in rural Latakia. This campaign was active through
August 18, 2013. On the first day, according to Human Rights Watch, 190
civilians were slaughtered as these groups took over ten villages. “Most of
these individuals were either intentionally or indiscriminately killed” and
“the crimes were premeditated and organized.”7 Therefore, Human Rights
Watch concluded, “the killings, hostage taking, and other abuses commit-
ted...rise to the level of crimes against humanity.”8 While JN and other groups
described it as the “Battle to Liberate the Coast in Rural Latakia,” ISIS called
it “Cleansing of the Coast Operations.”9
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Historical Baggage 55
The violations Human Rights Watch documented on the first day of the
campaign were broadly indicative of attacks that JN would conduct against
Alawite civilians militarily and ideologically. During the days of JN, Jawlani
would consistently refer to Alawites as nusayris, which is degrading at the
lowest level—the equivalent of calling a black person the N-word in America.
In his comments, he did not distinguish civilians from the regime, in part
because much of the upper echelons and decisionmaking therein were from
the Alawite sect. “For sure, Bashar al-Assad does not kill by himself, he kills
with them [nusayris].”10
However, the massacre of women and children and the arbitrary targeting
of civilian villages was still egregious, even if the crimes committed by the
Assad regime were far worse and on an industrial scale. It still does not
excuse the actions taken by JN, such as its “eye for an eye” campaign in the
aftermath of the Assad regime’s horrendous chemical weapons attack against
civilians in the Ghouta area of the Damascus suburbs. In announcing the
campaign, Jawlani exclaimed that “the revenge for the blood of your sons
is a debt in our necks and the neck of every mujahid, and we won’t be free
56 The Age of Political Jihadism
from it until we make them taste what they made our sons taste since it has
been legalized for us to punish in the same way.”11
While Jawlani’s rage is legitimate, responding in kind with war crimes,
even if not on the same level of brutality as the Assad regime, illustrates the
bankruptcy of his and his group’s worldview. This particular campaign lasted
until September 14, 2013.12 And while some of the attacks conducted in this
campaign were against military targets, they also included the assassination
of an Alawite cleric and random bombings of the Alawite village of Bahlouliya
(as shown in the earlier image).13 The examples discussed in this section on
an ideational and military level are merely the tip of the iceberg regarding
actions taken against Alawite civilians.14
Most people became aware of the reemergence of ISIS through its beheading
campaign against Western and Japanese journalists and humanitarian
workers in the fall of 2014. Yet ISIS was not the only group that kidnapped
foreigners. While JN never conducted such theatrically sadistic acts as ISIS,
it still kidnapped individuals, including Western journalists. Some examples
were the cases of American journalists Theo Padnos and Matthew Schrier,
even though Jawlani feigned ignorance in his interview with Martin Smith.
“We never had American prisoners, in the first place, not during the Nusra
time or even now. This is the first time I hear about it.”15 However, Padnos,
who was imprisoned longer than Schrier since he escaped, was held by one
of Jawlani’s top lieutenants, Abu Mariya al-Qahtani,16 which illustrates the
caveats one has to take into account when analyzing Jawlani’s interview
with Frontline.
Padnos ended up being released via an alleged ransom payment by
the Qatari government. Following their return to the United States, both
journalists wrote memoirs of their experiences as prisoners of JN. Both go
into great detail on their torture. The techniques used against them were
similar to ones described earlier that HTS continues to use against activists
and jihadist enemy prisoners. According to Padnos, torture had a particular
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Historical Baggage 57
stench, and they knew when it was coming: “When there is torture, they reek
of the patchouli oil the men in black put in their beards. Every time you smell
the oil, you know those men are on their way into the cell block.”17 Ahead of
Schrier’s escape, he quipped that “in an hour and a half we [he and Padnos,
who was unable to escape] would either be free, dead, or wishing they’d kill
us to end the torture.”18 This highlights the level of torture that Schrier knew
JN to be capable of based on their experiences while imprisoned. Unlike the
cases with ISIS, both Padnos and Schrier survived. However, they showcase
the crimes directly committed by JN against American citizens.
Although this chapter is not an exhaustive discussion of crimes commit-
ted by JN, it is useful to remember some of the better-known cases when
contemplating future policy related to the group in its current form. The
failure to procure an admission of guilt or justice for the victims ahead of
any prospective policy change would give the current leadership of HTS an
unwarranted pass.
58 The Age of Political Jihadism
Notes
10. “Interview with Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, Part 1,” Al Jazeera, May
27, 2015, https://bit.ly/3K1ult0.
11. Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, “An Eye for an Eye,” al-Manarah al-Bayda
Foundation for Media Production, August 25, 2013, https://bit.
ly/3wQnyOP.
12. “Three New Statements from Jabhat al-Nusrah,” al-Manarah al-Bayda
Foundation for Media Production, September 14, 2013, https://bit.
ly/3qOrpIj.
13. “Four New Statements from Jabhat al-Nusrah,” al-Manarah al-Bayda
Foundation for Media Production, August 26, 2013, https://bit.
ly/3DHjCBH; and “Four New Statements from Jabhat al-Nusrah,”
al-Manarah al-Bayda Foundation for Media Production, August 28,
2013, https://bit.ly/3wQoliL.
14. Another case includes the Ishtabraq massacre: Aymenn Jawad
Al-Tamimi, “The Ishtabraq Massacre in Idlib: Interview,” May 1, 2020,
https://aymennjawad.org/2020/05/the-ishtabraq-massacre-in-
idlib-interview.
15. Martin Smith, “The Jihadist: Abu Mohammad al-Jolani,” Frontline,
February 1 and February 14, 2021, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/
frontline/interview/abu-mohammad-al-jolani.
16. Theo Padnos, Blindfolded: A Memoir of Capture, Torture, and
Enlightenment (New York: Scribner, 2021).
17. Ibid., xi.
18. Matthew Schrier, The Dawn Prayer (Or How to Survive in a Secret Syrian
Terrorist Prison) (Dallas: BenBella Books, 2018), 256.
6
As U.S. Syria representative James Jeffrey noted, HTS has sought to let
Washington know that “We want to be your friend. We’re not terrorists.
We’re just fighting Assad...We’re not a threat to you.”1 While such rhetoric
may appear desperate or odd, it partly aligns with Jawlani’s policies when
he led JN. In a May 27, 2015, interview with Al Jazeera, Jawlani claimed, “We
are only here to accomplish one mission: to fight the regime and its agents
on the ground, including Hizb Allah and others. Jabhat al-Nusra has no
plans or directives to target the West. We received clear orders [from Ayman
al-Zawahiri] not to use Syria as a launching pad to attack the United States
or Europe so as not to sabotage the true mission against the regime. Maybe
al-Qaeda does that [elsewhere], but not here in Syria.”2
Some may counter that the so-called Khorasan Group, which was embed-
ded within JN over the 2013–16 period, was interested in planning external
operations abroad. While this assessment contains some truth, the dynamic
between JN’s historical leadership and those involved in the Khorasan
Group must be disaggregated based on newer information that illuminates
differences and disagreements between these two entities. Although from the
outside these gaps appeared to be trivial, they were actually a harbinger of
subsequent events. In many ways, the Khorasan Group was a proto-version
of Huras al-Din.3
Following the split between Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State in April
2013, JN was officially an AQ branch and no longer just an IS subsidiary.
Yet according to Muzamjir al-Sham, “al-Jawlani was completely unknown
[to AQ’s senior leadership] and his baya to al-Qaeda occurred suddenly and
External Operations, Guidance, and Inspiration 61
This section highlights the ways in which HTS frames the Israeli-Palestin-
ian conflict to local constituents and how it may be understood by those
in the West who are viewing HTS’s online media and know that Western
countries are allied with Israel. This section does not intend to get into
the deep and complicated history between Israel and the Palestinians or
Hamas in particular.
In the most recent Hamas-Israel war in May 2021, HTS issued a statement
illustrating the group’s thinking vis-à-vis the Palestinian cause in terms
of the Muslims of historical Bilad al-Sham (greater Syria) and the global
Muslim community (umma). This belies the notion that HTS is solely a
Syrian nationalist group;11 rather, it sees itself as part of a solution related
to the issue. Jawlani explained that “what happened the past three days
renewed the Islamic spirit across the Islamic world in a clear and major
way.”12 Similarly, senior HTS ideologue Abu Mariya al-Qahtani, posting
on Twitter a video of rockets launched by Hamas from Gaza and shot into
civilian areas in Israel, attached the following note: “These scenes delight
the believers and make the hypocrites sad...Today, the lions of Gaza are
turning the night of the Zionists into day. May God bless the lions of Qassem
in bombing them.”13 This was further reinforced by HTS’s Manarat al-Huda
Dawa Center, which created an exhibition titled “Al-Aqsa, Our Cause,” and
was shown in Idlib, Jisr al-Shughour, Atme, and al-Dana in June 2021.14
The exhibition was attended by students, tribal figures, and members of
the HTS-backed Salvation Government, among other locals.
Additionally, HTS ideologue Abu Mariya al-Qahtani and online HTS
influencer Abdulrahman al-Idrisi have promoted Hamas-backed terrorist
External Operations, Guidance, and Inspiration 63
Blasphemy
if the group tries to portray it as such. One of HTS’s auxiliary media outlets,
Shamukh, still features old audio messages from al-Qaeda leaders Osama
bin Laden and Abu Yahya al-Libi as well as Abdullah Azzam,25 illustrating
that while they may have broken away from AQ’s current version of itself,
those within HTS’s network still hold onto that historical heritage from the
broader jihadist movement.
66 The Age of Political Jihadism
Notes
10. Aaron Y. Zelin, “From Global Jihad to Local Regime: HTS Builds
Different Forms of Legitimacy,” PolicyWatch 3519, Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, August 6, 2021, https://www.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/global-jihad-local-regime-
hts-builds-different-forms-legitimacy.
11. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, “Palestine Is Our Cause and the Cause of Every
Muslim,” May 11, 2021, https://bit.ly/3qWK30Z.
12. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, “A Meeting of the Leader Abu Muhammad
al-Jawlani with Shaykhs of Tribes on the Blessed Day of Id al-Fitr,” Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham Media Office, May 15, 2021, https://bit.ly/3NOiJvN.
13. See Abu Mariya al-Qahtani’s tweet here: https://twitter.com/
BnMaysara/status/1392277657048526850.
14. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, “An Electronic Copy of the Brochure ‘Palestine
Is Our First Cause’ for Those Who Were Not Able to Obtain a Copy at
the Exhibition ‘Al-Aqsa, Our Cause,’” Manarat al-Huda Dawa Center,
June 18, 2021. Author retains a copy in his archive.
15. See tweet by Abu Mariya al-Qahtani on November 21, 2021, https://
twitter.com/BnMaysara/status/1462375526266552327.
16. See tweet by Abd al-Rahman al-Idrisi on November 21, 2021, https://
twitter.com/Edrissitn/status/1462371550766714881.
17. Mitchell D. Silber, “Terrorist Attacks Against Jewish Targets in the
West (2012–2019): The Atlantic Divide Between European and
American Attackers,” CTC Sentinel 12, no. 5 (May/June 2019), https://
ctc.usma.edu/terrorist-attacks-jewish-targets-west-2012-2019-
atlantic-divide-european-american-attackers.
18. Anti-Defamation League, “Following Start of Mideast Violence,
Antisemitic Incidents More Than Double in May 2021 vs. May 2020,”
June 7, 2021, https://www.adl.org/blog/following-start-of-mideast-
violence-antisemitic-incidents-more-than-double-in-may-2021-
vs-may.
19. Jytte Klausen, The Cartoons That Shook the World (New Haven: Yale
University Press, 2009); and Jytte Klausen, Western Jihadism: A Thirty
Year History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020).
20. Kim Willsher, “Teacher Decapitated in Paris Named as Samuel Paty,
47,” Guardian, October 17, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/
world/2020/oct/17/teacher-decapitated-in-paris-named-as-
samuel-paty-47.
68 The Age of Political Jihadism
For much of the post-9/11 era, decisions related to jihadist groups have been
relatively straightforward. This is not surprising, since both al-Qaeda and
the Islamic State have represented extremists that espouse a Manichean
worldview, are unwilling to compromise on their ideology, and continue
to conduct terrorist activities. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is more complicated.
While ostensibly still a militant group, it governs and controls territory
and therefore behaves like a state actor even if it is not recognized by the
international community. Violence targeting civilians committed by nonstate
groups is more likely to be labeled as terrorism, while similar abuses by
states are more commonly called human rights violations. Of course, states
can be sponsors of terrorism—even though no evidence suggests that HTS
and its Syrian Salvation Government are sponsoring other entities to conduct
terrorism outside its territory, let alone against Western targets.
HTS is not the first terrorist group to control territory or engage in gov-
ernance; thus, this dilemma is not unique. Yet in the context of the jihadist
community over the past two decades, the way HTS is positioning itself
and attempting to show it has moved out of the AQ and IS orbit differs from
anything seen so far. Therefore, it is incumbent on the United States to decide
how it classifies HTS and how forward leaning it wants to be in encouraging
HTS or other jihadist groups to move away from terrorism as a tactic.
The realist angle appears to reflect U.S. Syria representative James Jef-
frey’s approach when he began back-channel talks with HTS. As he put it,
“They are the least bad option of the various options on Idlib, and Idlib is one
of the most important places in Syria, which is one of the most important
70 The Age of Political Jihadism
places right now in the Middle East.”1 During the Biden administration,
however, based on this author’s understanding of current policy, there has
been no desire to engage with HTS.
The State Department has established three legal criteria for a terrorism
designation under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.2 Within it
are a number of subcategories also considered in potential designations. Based
on these criteria, since HTS broke ties with AQ, five parts of the legal definition
can still apply (see annex for the full version of these legal preconditions):
The first of these five parts is self-explanatory. The second relates to the
imprisonment and torture of political activists as well as the seizure of
Christian and Druze property. The assassination of Raed Fares would fall
under the third. The fourth could apply to continued rocket launches against
civilian Alawite communities or HTS’s shooting at protesters demonstrat-
ing against its rule. The fifth is a reiteration of actions already described.
Therefore, it does make sense for Washington to continue to designate
HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Yet it is worth considering, even if
farfetched in the near term, what other authorities there could be to sanction
HTS if it did move below the legal threshold for being a terrorist group in a
potential future five-year review window.
The Terrorism Designation Question 71
If Washington deemed that HTS no longer reached the full legal threshold
for designation, alternative sanctions could still be applied to hold the
group and its leaders accountable for their actions. One is Executive Order
13572, “Blocking Property of Certain Persons with Respect to Human Rights
Abuses in Syria,”3 signed by former president Barack Obama in late April
2011. The Treasury Department could consider designating HTS under the
following clause: “any person determined by the Secretary of the Treasury,
in consultation with the Secretary of State, to be responsible for or complicit
in, or responsible for ordering, controlling, or otherwise directing, or to have
participated in, the commission of human rights abuses in Syria, including
those related to repression.”4 If E.O. 13572 or other human rights sanctions
authorities are applied, the Treasury Department could also issue new
or update existing licenses related to humanitarian activities that would
facilitate the flow of additional aid to populations in need in Idlib. Although
individually designated terrorists would still be present in Idlib, the advan-
tage of pursuing non-counterterrorism (CT) sanctions against HTS would
be that they do not carry criminal material-support liability, meaning that a
U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control license may be sufficient to encourage
humanitarian actors to expand activities. Furthermore, it may encourage
HTS to sideline individuals designated under CT authorities.
One way to also split the difference would be to have the Treasury Depart-
ment sanction particular HTS leaders, thus blunting those individuals’ abili-
ties to take advantage of a changed sanctions regime. Likewise, similar to the
process followed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC),
those specifically advocating terrorism and those particular individuals and
leaders involved in past and current human rights abuses could still be held
to account while allowing the rest of society and more forward-leaning HTS
leaders within its territory to move forward.5
However, such a decision would likely create a political issue domestically,
especially in Congress. Most recently, the controversy over designating,
undesignating, and potentially redesignating the Iran-backed Yemeni mili-
tant group the Houthis illustrates these political complications. Of course,
72 The Age of Political Jihadism
the actions of HTS these days are far less egregious than those perpetrated
by the Houthis against the Yemeni population as well as its drone and mis-
sile attacks against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Therefore,
if this were a sanctions regime that could be used as an alternative in the
future, HTS would have to continue to show progress in rooting out foreign
fighters and other Foreign Terrorist Organizations locally—including those
allied with HTS—as well as ceasing to glorify terrorism abroad or launch
rockets into civilian areas.
Beyond the political ramifications in the United States, there are other
potential consequences worth considering when providing such leeway with
a changed type of sanction. HTS could use the opening on humanitarian
licensing to monopolize the delivery of humanitarian aid—as it has been
doing in other sectors—and also levy taxes on international NGOs for being
in its territory.6 Regarding the former, according to humanitarian aid scholar
Natasha Hall, “some aid workers already reported pressures to positively
review projects, target certain beneficiaries, hire NGO employees linked
with HTS, and ensure favored contractors win tenders offered by NGOs.”7
Local Syrian NGOs also worry about data privacy.8 Thus, enhancing HTS’s
power would make it more likely over time that HTS will be seen as the sole
interlocutor in the same way that international actors are now approach-
ing the Assad regime with respect to the humanitarian catastrophe in the
regime’s territories. In many ways, arguments about legitimizing HTS are the
same as those related to normalization with the Assad regime: this particular
actor won and is in charge, residents under him are suffering, therefore it
is necessary to work with and through him to help those suffering under
the yoke of both regimes.
Alternatively, Hall suggests that “a more collective donor and UN approach
to negotiating with HTS leaders over regulatory frameworks for the aid
response would protect humanitarian space and even allow for a shift to
assistance promoting greater resilience.” It would therefore be wise for
U.S. agencies, if the terrorism designation is changed to a different type of
sanction regime, to collaborate and coordinate with key humanitarian actors
internationally and locally that have operated in Syria and would seek to
do more in the future if the environment for humanitarian aid improved.
The Terrorism Designation Question 73
Potential Conditions
Notes
Conclusion
Western government from engaging with them. For example, in June 2021
AQIM leader Abu Obaida Yusuf al-Annabi said that France was “deceiving”
its citizens by saying that the country’s operations in Mali were necessary
to protect France from jihadist attacks at home, because there has never
been an attack on French soil by a Malian or orchestrated by Mali-based
jihadists.1 More recently, TTP spokesperson Muhammad Khurasani released
a statement saying that the group has no global agenda and that its war is
limited to Pakistan.2 Interestingly, he asked in the statement for the “United
States to support the TTP in fighting against the Pakistani state for the rights
of the oppressed tribes.”3 Even between those groups, there are gradations
in how they frame this issue.
Thus, it is likely that the HTS-related issues presented in this paper will
increasingly become larger policy dilemmas that Washington must address
in relation to certain jihadist groups. Having a policy to potentially deal with
these vexing and likely uncomfortable issues is worth thinking through even
if, in the end, the United States and other governments decide to retain a
wholly securitized approach to groups that have changed at the edges. This
is due not only to jihadist groups gaining strength as local governments
weaken, but also to Washington’s greater focus on power competition with
Russia and China. Therefore, less worry about jihadist groups than in the
immediate 9/11 aftermath could be viewed as an opportunity to concentrate
resources elsewhere. It is important to remember that these jihadist groups
are ideologically opposed to Washington and the West’s interests in promot-
ing a more liberal world order. As a consequence, any potential changes
would be transactional at best. Washington will have to calculate the costs
and benefits of changing its current policy course with HTS.
Whatever the United States decides in the end, at the very least, viewing
Jawlani and HTS through the al-Qaeda prism is disconnected from reality
and will lead to incorrect assessments of the group. A flawed understand-
ing of the group’s current nature, however extreme and authoritarian it
continues to be, could create other problems in the future. Regardless of
next steps from Washington, the age of political jihadism is here.
Conclusion 79
Notes
1. Sheikh Abu Obaida Yusuf al-Annabi, “And God Will Surely Support
Those Who Support Him,” al-Andalus Foundation for Media
Production, June 20, 2021, https://bit.ly/3iToSsj.
2. See Abd. Sayed (@abdsayedd), “TTP spokesman Muhammad
Khurasani rejects all claims about its links with AQ/IS. He adds TTP
does not have any global agenda, & its war is limited to Pakistan
alone. He asks ‘the U.S. to support the TTP in fighting against the
Pakistani state for the rights of oppressed tribes,’” post on Twitter,
February 12, 2022, 4:37 a.m., https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/
status/1492432632784863232.
3. Ibid.
Appendix
Legal criteria for a terrorism designation under Section 219 of the Immigra-
tion and Nationality Act:1
Notes
THE AGE OF
AL
Aaron Zelin takes up in this illuminating study.”
PO LI T IC
–COLE BUNZEL, Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, and
editor, Jihadica
Aaron Y. Zelin
“In this comprehensive study, Aaron Zelin captures the complexity of HTS
M
and its recent transformations, and explores the thorny question of
H A D IS
whether the group should be delisted from international terrorism lists.
JI
An important read for those interested in understanding the evolution of
HTS and the current state of affairs in northwest Syria.”
AL-SHAM
Department of Politics at Brandeis University, and the
d y o f H AYAT TA HRIR
A Stu
founder of Jihadology.net. He is author of the book Your Sons
Are at Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad (Columbia
University Press), along with the recent Institute study
Syria at the Center of Power Competition and Counterterrorism.
A ARON Y. ZELIN