MERU UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

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UNIVERSITY EXAMINATIONS 2021/2022

FOURTH YEAR, SECOND SEMESTER EXAMINATION FOR THE DEGREE OF

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN STATISTICS

SMS 3451: DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNIQUES

DATE: JANUARY 2022 TIME: 2 HOURS

INSTRUCTIONS: Answer Question ONE and any other TWO questions.

QUESTION ONE (30 MARKS)

a) Briefly explain the following concepts:

i. Abridged life table (1 Mark)
ii. Cohort life table (1 Mark)
iii. Stable population (1 Mark)
b) The population projection equation for country X at time t years after the initial
observation is given by the equation:
100000
P (t ) =
2 + 3e −0.05t
i. Determine the initial population size. (2 Marks)
ii. Determine the ultimate population size (2 Marks)
iii. Determine the rate of growth 100 years after the initial observation. (4 Marks)
iv. Determine the size of population and time in years when the rate of growth is a
maximum. (7 Marks)
c) Consider the following data on population Z in a certain period of length t starting
January 2001:
Population in January 2001=7203, population in year t (Pt) =10554, births =456, Deaths =
215, Immigrants =145, Emigrants =40.
i. Compute the net migration over the t-year period. (1 Mark)

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 ii. Assuming that t=5 years, calculate the annual growth rate of population Z.
(4 Marks)
d) Calculate directly and indirectly standardized crude death rates for populations I and II by
using population III as the standard population. (7 Marks)
Age group Population I Population II Population III
0 – 14 30 0.5 32 0.4 20 0.6
15 – 29 15 0.2 10 0.2 25 0.1
30 – 44 16 0.3 14 0.4 17 0.3

QUESTION TWO (20 MARKS)

a) Discuss how the mortality rate of a population may affected by: age, sex, occupation,
education level, and income status. (10 Marks)
b) Discuss the concept of population change with the help of the basic demographic equation
explaining al the parameters used. (4 Marks)
c) What do you understand by the term standardization? Why is it necessary? (2 Marks)
d) Given that the population for country A in 1960 was 6,726,815 and the population in 1970
was 845, 516, compute the population growth rate R, using the Arithmetic approximation
model and the Geometric model. (4 Marks)

QUESTION THREE (20 MARKS)

a) What is a life table? How is it used? (2 Marks)

b) Discuss the basic columns of a life table and give the mathematical formulae depicting the
relationships between these columns. (9 Marks)
c) Define the following terms as used in demography:
i. Maternal mortality as described by the world health organization. (2 Marks)
ii. Still birth (1 Mark)
iii. Parity progression ratio (1 Mark)
iv. Gross reproduction rate (1 Mark)
d) Briefly discuss assumptions made in component projection methods. (4 Marks)

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QUESTION FOUR (20 MARKS)

a) Distinguish between net immigration and net emigration. (2 Marks)

b) A follow up study of migrants to a work area finds that all leave before their fourth
anniversary in the area. 40% leave the first year, 30% leave in the second year, 20% leave
in their third year while 10% leave in their fourth year. The number of migrants entering
the area each year is 8% of total migrant population.
i. What is the value of time that a migrant remains in the work area(assume that
migration is distributed uniformly throughout the year) (3 Marks)
ii. For migrants who remained in the area for exactly one year, what is the probability
of remaining exactly two more years. (3 Marks)
iii. If the migrants who have been in the area between two and three years represent
15.22% of the total population, what is the rate of growth of the migrants
population. (4 Marks)
iv. What is the proportion of the migrants who leave the area each year (assume no
migrant die). (2 Marks)
c) Discuss the three methods of adjusting the crude infant mortality rate, providing the
mathematical formulae used in each case. Define any parameters used. (6 Marks)

QUESTION FIVE (20 MARKS)

a) Define infant mortality rate (IMR) (1 Mark)

b) Explain why IMR is not regarded as a ‘true rate’ (1 Mark)
c) List and explain any four endogenous factors and four exogenous factors that affect infant
mortality in developing and underdeveloped countries. (8 Marks)
d) The table below shows the lifetime distribution of a group of lab rates observed since they
were injected with a certain rat poison (on their 24th day of life) until the time they died.
Age (x) Ix dx px qx
24 7804
25 7761 470
26
27 7672 0.885
28
29 240
30 0
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i. Use the usual definition of life table functions and their relations to fill in the
missing entries. (4 Marks)
ii. What is the radix of the table? (1 Mark)
iii. Find the probability that a rat aged 27 days from this population will live for the
next 4 days? (2 Marks)
iv. Find the probability that a life aged 24 exactly will die between age 27 and 28
years exact. (3 Marks)

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