CRAFTSMA_
CRAFTSMA_
25 October 2024
Craftsman Automation
Rating: Hold
Acquisition, new segment opportunities to drive value; retaining a Hold Target Price: Rs.6,500
Share Price: Rs.5,395
On less than-expected powertrain & industrial product margins,
Craftsman’s Q2 FY25 EBITDA fell 19% y/y to Rs1.92bn, missing our Key data CRAFTSMA IN
Rs2.18bn expectation. We are positive about the medium to long term due 52-week high / low Rs7121 / 3782
Sensex / Nifty 80085 / 24407
to fresh opportunities in import substitution, lightweighting and industrials
3-m average volume $5.7m
(heavy engines, off-highway, wind, capital goods; annual potential of over
Market cap Rs127bn / $1505.2m
$100m in the next 4-5 years), reasonably priced acquisitions (Sunbeam, Shares outstanding 24m
Frongberg) and capacity expansion (a 25% increase), which would drive
robust growth in powertrain/aluminium products. We introduce our FY27e,
Shareholding pattern (%) Sep'24 Jun'24 Mar'24
with 11%/22%/38% revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth. We retain our Hold at 48.7 48.7 55.0
Promoters
a higher Rs6,500 TP, 25x FY27e P/E (earlier Rs6,000, 30x FY26e). - of which, Pledged - - -
Free float 51.3 51.3 45.0
EBITDA below estimates. Q2 FY25 consolidated revenue grew 3% y/y to - Foreign institutions 16.6 15.8 12.6
Rs12.1bn, broadly in line with our Rs12.5bn estimate. EBITDA fell 19% to - Domestic institutions 21.5 21.5 16.0
Rs1.92bn, below our Rs2.18bn estimate due to lower-than-expected powertrain - Public 13.2 14.1 16.5
& industrial product margins. Powertrain sales grew 9% to Rs4.3bn. The EBIT
margin fell 490bps y/y, 230bps q/q, to 14.7%. Aluminium product sales
Estimates revision (%)
declined 1% y/y to Rs5.8bn. The EBIT margin fell 120bps y/y to 14%, but – includes acquisitions
FY25e FY26e
expanded 80bps q/q. DR Axion sales fell 13% to Rs3.1bn. Its EBIT expanded Sales 10.2 25.0
70bps y/y, 280 bps q/q, to 16%. Industrial & engineering sales grew 2% to EBITDA -4.5 5.1
Rs2bn. Its EBIT margin contracted notably to 0.3%. Overall, PAT fell 35% to EPS -20.5 -4.4
Rs617m (ARe Rs692m), below our estimate due to lower operating profit.
Relative price performance
Outlook. Expects revenues of >Rs70bn in FY26. Expects H2 revenue growth 7,000
performance similar to H1. Sustainable EBITDA margins are 17-18%. 6,000
5,000
Valuation. We expect robust 21%/27% revenue/PAT CAGRs over FY24-27 4,000
(incl. acquisitions). Our FY25e-26e EPS changes due to acquisitions (Sunbeam,
3,000
Frongberg) inclusions. We retain our Hold at a higher Rs6,500 TP, 25x P/E
2,000
FY27e (earlier Rs6,000, 30x FY26e). The multiple is lower as we have included
Feb-24
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Mar-24
May-24
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
acquisition financials. Risks: Slower orders, less-than-expected industry volume
growth and acquisition-turnaround delays. CRAFTSMA Sensex
Source: Bloomberg
Key financials (YE Mar) - C FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Sales (Rs m) 31,826 44,517 53,973 71,221 78,934
Net profit (Rs m) 2,484 3,045 2,548 4,518 6,242
EPS (Rs) 117.6 144.2 106.8 189.5 261.8
Growth (%) 52 23 -26 77 38 Mumuksh Mandlesha
Research Analyst
P/E (x) 45.9 37.4 50.5 28.5 20.6
EV / EBITDA (x) 18.3 14.6 15.1 11.2 9.1
P/BV (x) 8.3 6.9 3.8 3.4 2.9
Shagun Beria
RoE (%) 19.8 20.1 11.0 14.1 16.9 Research Associate
RoCE (%) 14.6 15.3 9.6 11.7 13.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Net debt / equity (x) 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
Industrial &
(Rs) Engineering
7,000 16%
6,000
Powertrain
5,000 36%
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Aluminium
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Oct-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
products
48%
Source: Company
Source: Bloomberg
Result highlights
Fig 7 – Quarterly performance
(Rs m) Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Y/Y (%) Q/Q (%) FY25 YTD FY24 YTD Y/Y (%)
Revenue 11,791 11,297 11,053 11,512 12,140 3.0 5.5 23,651 22,167 6.7
Expenditure 9,416 9,095 8,984 9,539 10,212 8.5 7.1 19,750 17,650 11.9
as % of sales 79.9 82.3 81.3 82.9 84.1 83.5 79.6
Consumption of RM 6,270 6,010 5,984 6,484 6,752 7.7 4.1 13,236 11,719 12.9
as % of sales 53.2 54.4 54.1 56.3 55.6 56.0 52.9
Employee cost 722 763 730 738 832 15.2 12.7 1,571 1,392 12.8
as % of sales 6.1 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.9 6.6 6.3
Other expenditure 2,423 2,322 2,271 2,316 2,628 8.4 13.4 4,944 4,539 8.9
as % of sales 20.6 21.0 20.5 20.1 21.6 20.9 20.5
EBITDA 2,375 2,202 2,069 1,973 1,928 (18.8) (2.3) 3,901 4,517 (13.6)
Depreciation 668 703 723 725 762 13.9 5.0 1,486 1,351 10.0
EBIT 1,707 1,499 1,346 1,248 1,166 (31.7) (6.6) 2,415 3,166 (23.7)
Other income 47 35 53 48 64 36.4 33.1 113 84 33.8
Interest 416 442 464 492 413 (0.6) (15.9) 905 840 7.7
PBT 1,338 1,093 935 805 817 (38.9) 1.5 1,623 2,411 (32.7)
Total tax 296 279 233 212 205 (30.8) (3.6) 417 562 (25.8)
Minority interest -100 -84 -82 -63 0 (100.0) (100.0) (63) (163)
Share of profit from JV 2 1 3 2 4 66.7 122.2 6 4
Adj. PAT 945 731 623 532 617 (34.7) 16.0 1,149 1,690 (32.0)
Extraordinary items: Loss / (Gain) 0 0 0 0 0 - -
Reported PAT 945 731 623 532 617 (34.7) 16.0 1,149 1,690 (32.0)
Adj. EPS 44.8 34.6 29.5 22.3 25.9 (42.2) 16.0 48.1 80.0 (39.8)
Valuations
We are positive about the medium to long term due to fresh opportunities in
import substitution, lightweighting and industrial segments (heavy engines, off-
highway, wind, capital goods; annual potential of over $100m in the next 4-5
years), reasonably priced acquisitions (Sunbeam, Frongberg and more ahead)
and new capacity expansion (increase by 25%) driving robust growth in
powertrain and aluminium products. Industrial & Engineering growth would be
boosted by storage solutions and renewables.
We expect consolidated revenue (excl. acquisitions) to clock a 21% CAGR over
FY24-27, led by powertrain (a 16% CAGR), aluminium (11%), Sunbeam
(Rs13bn), Frongberg (Rs2.6bn) and industrial engineering (10%). Powertrain
growth would be driven by a ramp-up of the Kothavadi plant (phase 1 general
industry castings). The aluminium segment would be boosted by supply of 2W
alloy wheels from the Bhiwadi plant (4m wheel capacity with Rs4bn-5bn
revenue potential). The EBIT margin would improve to 13.3% in FY26 (from
11.4% in FY25), due to the ramp-up of the new plants, operating leverage and
lower losses for Sunbeam.
New opportunites. Heavy engines expected to reach >$100m annual revenues
for Craftsman in the next 4-5 years due to strong end-demand (AI data centres
driving generator demand; OEM engine manufacturers order-books are full and
double-digit revenue growth expected for them) and casting-supply constraints
in the USA/Europe/Brazil and de-risk from China expected to be major
opportunities ahead.
Revenue diversification (less EV exposure). With the company’s entry into
new product categories/end segments (industrial engines, body casting parts)
driven by acquisitions, the revenue share of EV-related segments would reduce;
hence, improve terminal growth for the company and drive better valuation
multiples.
Valuation. We expect 21%/27% revenue/PAT CAGRs over FY24-27 (incl.
acquisitions). We recommend a Hold at a Rs6,500 TP, 25x P/E on FY27e.
EBIT %
Powertrain 26.3 25.0 18.7 16.5 18.0 18.5
Aluminium Products 1.7 8.3 15.0 14.0 14.5 15.0
Industrial & Engineering 12.6 9.3 6.7 2.0 4.0 5.0
Sunbeam (2.0) 5.0 7.0
Frongberg 7.0 7.0 7.0
Total 17.0 16.5 14.9 11.4 12.4 13.3
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
45 +2SD
40
+1SD
35
30
Mean
25
20
-1SD
15
Aug-24
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Aug-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Sep-24
Mar-21
Jun-21
Apr-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jul-21
Oct-21
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
Jun-24
Oct-24
Risks
◼ Slower order wins
◼ Less-than-expected industry volume growth
◼ Acquisition-turnaround delays.
Nov-22
Nov-23
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Mar-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
May-23
Sep-23
May-24
Sep-24
14 15-Aug-24 Hold 6,000 5,352
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