GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF NAMIBIA

A blueprint for Namibia’s

green industrialisation
August 2024

CONFIDENTIAL
Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint
Table of contents

Part A Where we stand Socioeconomic progress 5

Great economic strides have underpinned sustained socioeconomic progress. Yet growth An emerging growth gap 6
has slowed since 2015. Five economy-wide constraints are hindering a turnaround. It is high
Binding growth constraints 7
time to realise a new growth agenda – one that supercharges productivity, builds domestic
skills, opens new markets, channels private investment, and enhances climate resilience. A new future 13

Part B A new growth agenda A green, integrated global agenda 15

The world is changing quickly as it accelerates towards net zero. New markets are emerging for Alignment with Vision 2030 17
nations that can respond to revised global priorities. Green industrialisation is the growth
The green industrialisation vision 19
trajectory that binds global, regional, and domestic agendas. Seizing the moment requires parallel
development of public infrastructure enablers and private investments. Enabling pillars 20

Part C Delivering the blueprint Green industrialisation blueprint 24

Green industrialisation can increase productivity, deliver high-skill jobs, create new markets, Shared regional benefit 25
attract FDI, and position Namibia as a climate leader. In doing so, Namibia can foster strategic Financing requirements 27
cooperation, trade, and enhanced prosperity for southern Africa. Syndication of a
comprehensive green industrialisation strategy is necessary to mobilise the required resources. The roadmap 28

Annexe Catalogue of investments Catalogue of infrastructure enablers 29

Realising priority infrastructure requires unprecedented resource mobilisation, that will need to Catalogue of investable industries 35
target global markets and bilateral partners. In parallel, a shortlist of prioritised target industries
Spatial analysis & economic diagnostic 52
have been identified that can spearhead the attraction of investors in modern, value-adding,
employment-generating industries.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint ‹#›

2
Foreword

Namibia stands at the threshold of a transformative era, resources while creating significant economic opportunity.
poised to harness her abundant natural resources and Moreover, the strategy aligns perfectly with our climate
strategic advantages to forge a sustainable, prosperous action commitments, taking concrete steps to reduce our
future. Under the tutelage of our Minister of carbon footprint while preserving our unique natural
Industrialisation and Trade we have crafted Namibia’s environment.
Green Industrialisation Blueprint, representing a pivotal
roadmap for our nation's journey towards economic In the Harambee Prosperity Plan II, President Geingob
diversification, environmental stewardship, and social noted: “We cannot achieve the goal of a prosperous
progress. Namibia if we do not deepen regional integration and Pan-
African solidarity. For this reason, our goals for a
Guided by the visionary thinking of the 3rd President of the prosperous and inclusive Namibia will remain closely Dr. Hage G. Geingob
Republic of Namibia, Dr Hage Gottfried Geingob — and aligned with the plans of the Southern African (1941-2024)
building on the Economic Advancement pillar of the Development Community (SADC) and Agenda 2063: The
Harambee Prosperity Plan II — this blueprint charts a Africa We Want of the African Union.”
pathway for Namibia to leapfrog into green and sustainable
industrialisation. At its heart lies the immense potential of The success of Namibia’s green industrialisation goals,
hydrogen, a clean energy carrier that promises to position therefore, hinge on collaboration and partnerships with our
the country as a frontrunner in the unfolding and inevitable regional and global peers. We call upon all stakeholders — To the memory of His Excellency
energy transition. government, the private sector, academic institutions, and Dr. Hage G. Geingob, the late
civil society — to engage actively with this strategy and President of the Republic of Namibia.
The objectives set forth in this document are ambitious yet contribute to its implementation.
His visionary leadership and unwavering
achievable. On one hand, this blueprint outlines the way in
commitment to prosperity and
which our vast solar and wind resources, coupled with our economic transformation have been
strategic location and stable political environment, provide instrumental in shaping this blueprint,
a unique opportunity to create a thriving green hydrogen laying the foundation for Namibia's
industry, attracting investment, fostering innovation, and green energy future.
generating thousands of skilled jobs for our people. On the
other, it encompasses the creation of extensive James Mnyupe
downstream opportunities that will add value to our natural Green Hydrogen Commissioner

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 3 ‹#›

 A Where we stand

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

 A
WHERE WE STAND

Significant socioeconomic progress

Where we stand
Great strides have been made since Independence. Significant economic growth, which has outperformed regional
peers, has enabled a remarkable improvement in socioeconomic performance across the board.

KEY SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS

% change 1990 to 2023
B

+3.5% -50% +100%

A new growth agenda

Average growth rate far People living below the poverty line 55% of the population now has
outperformed peers. has halved during the period. regular access to electricity.

GDP Poverty Electricity access

+100% -50% +25% C

Per capita income has doubled Deaths per 1,000 births 92% of the population can
(in constant USD terms). has declined considerably. now read and write.

Income Infant mortality Literacy

Delivering the blueprint

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: World Bank Development Indicators 5
 A
WHERE WE STAND

Running out of steam

Where we stand
After a generation of rapid economic expansion, a growth gap with upper middle-income peers has become entrenched.
Namibia may be stuck in a “middle-income trap”, struggling to compete in higher value-add and labour-intensive sectors.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Extended period of economic growth

Index = 1990 (constant 2015 $)
Upper
middle 25 years of sustained economic growth
B
income averaging a remarkable 4.5% per annum led to
achievement of upper-middle-income status.

A new growth agenda

400

Return on capital accumulation is tapering off

Capital accumulation has driven growth—primarily
300 Namibia
through public infrastructure and private mining
investment. But growth has slowed since 2015.

200
The old growth model is running out of steam C
The role of productivity and human capital in
growth has been negligible. Public investment
100 has crowded out private investment.

Delivering the blueprint

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: World Bank Development Indicators 6
 A
WHERE WE STAND

Binding growth constraints

Where we stand
There is emerging consensus around the key development challenges that are holding back economic growth in
Namibia, with its potential conditioned by five overarching circumstances.

1 2 3 4 5

Low and declining Human capital Constrained Suppressed private Climate change
productivity mismatches markets opportunities threats B

A new growth agenda

› Since 2015 the economy › A polarised labour market › Very exposed to external › Declining investment and › Water availability is
has performed below defined by high-paying market swings, e.g. from productivity in key central to sustaining the
potential, dragged down productive jobs and low- its main trading partner sectors have restrained traditional economy and
by falling productivity. paying unproductive jobs. South Africa. competitiveness. rapid urbanisation.
› Overreliance on public
investment, a skills gap,
› Competitive industries
ultimately hamstrung by
› The economy is also
notably vulnerable to the
› State-owned enterprises
remain dominant and
› The forecast increase in
water scarcity represents
C
and limited innovation limited skills have relied volatility of global have often stifled private a strategic challenge for
contribute to this trend. on imported capabilities. commodity prices. opportunities. the country.

Delivering the blueprint

Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12

See Annexe 3 for in-depth spatial analysis and economic diagnostic

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 7

 A
WHERE WE STAND
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN NAMIBIA
1 Low and declining Index 1992 = 100

Where we stand
productivity
Decades of strong growth have masked a
deteriorating productivity, contributing to high 110

unemployment and income inequality.

TFP increased gradually until
2007 but has declined since.
105 Accelerated decline since 2015
has been a brake on economic
Falling Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
growth. B
› TFP measures the efficiency with which different factors of
production are utilised. Growing TFP is critical to sustain
100
economic growth.

A new growth agenda

› Growth has been driven by capital stock accumulation, while
contribution from TFP has in fact been negative (40% below
peers). 95

Minimal contribution from labour productivity

› Low labour productivity relative to GDP is particularly challenging
in economies where informality is high. 90

› The informal sector represents more than 40% of employment,

contributing to income insecurity and vulnerability.
85
C
Technology and infrastructure a further constrain
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
› Namibia is a technology frontrunner in Africa, but the technical
skills available are insufficient to drive the aspired digital

Delivering the blueprint

transformation.
› Despite improvements in total utility access service provision is
geographically concentrated and costs remain high.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data 8
 A
WHERE WE STAND

2Human capital HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX

Upper middle-income countries, excluding very large and small nations

Where we stand
mismatches
The domestic labour market is defined by a
substantial gap between high-paying productive 0.8
HCI average for Namibia’s peer group
jobs and low-paying unproductive jobs. 0.7
Namibia scores significantly below
average for human capital compared
to its upper middle-income peers.
0.6
Lagging performance in education and health
0.5
B
› Despite improved access, the quality of social services is still poor
(on the World Bank’s HCI, Namibia ranks 117th out of 157
countries). 0.4

A new growth agenda

› With a HCI score of 0.45, performance is poor even relative to
other upper middle-income (avg. 0.56, excluding very large/small 0.3

countries)
0.2
Improved access has not yielded the expected results
› The education receives considerable backing, but increased access 0.1

has not translated into effective outcomes and wider job

prospects. 0

Albania

Malaysia
Belarus

Costa Rica
Kazakhstan

Peru

Argentina

Fiji

Namibia
Montenegro

Bosnia-Herz
Armenia

El Salvador

Botswana
Iraq
Colombia
Serbia

Ecuador

South Africa
Bulgaria

Thailand

Moldova

Georgia
West B. and Gaza

Azerbaijan

Kosovo

Paraguay

Gabon
N. Macedonia
Turkiye

Jamaica
Mauritius

Dominican Rep
Guatemala
› Policy efforts have also targeted improvements in health facilities
and outcomes, which currently constrains economic potential. C
Low skills drag down economic productivity
› There is an evident mismatch between skills demand and supply.

Delivering the blueprint

Low-skilled labour constrains higher-productivity economic The HCI is a World Bank indicator that estimates the contribution of health and education to workforce
activity. productivity. It assesses how much capital each country loses through poor education and health.
› Due to a limited availability of workers with specialized capabilities,
the economy has often reverted to importing higher skills.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: World Bank Human Capital Index 9
 A
WHERE WE STAND

3Constrained markets for NAMIBIA EXPORT STRUCTURE

By percentage, 2021

Where we stand
Namibian products
A concentrated market structure leaves the
Namibian economy particularly vulnerable to
Diamonds Fish fillets Grapes Bovine Bituminous Zinc ore
exogenous shocks. 1.51% 1.46% mixtures 2.14%
18.8% 9.08% 3.32%

Wood Beer
Market restrictions charcoal 1.31%
1.4% Salt B
› A small nation of 2.5M people drastically constrains opportunities 1.15%
for local product development aimed at the domestic market. Crustacean Unused Beef
0.67% Stampa 0.47%
› South Africa is the main trading partner, and as such the

A new growth agenda

0.53%
Frozen fish,
economy is vulnerable to the economic cycles in the excluding fillets Sheep Unrefined copper
neighbouring country. 6.08% 0.66% 5.65%

Export concentration
› Namibian export structure is heavily concentrated in the natural Gold
resource sectors.
Uranium
13.08% 16.56%
› Diamonds and precious stones, followed by other mining Other aircraft Other
products (uranium, gold, copper) represent the lion’s share. and spacecraft vessels
4.13% 1.81%

Exposure to exogenous shocks C

› The economy has long relied on investment and revenues
generated by the extractives sector.
› Reflecting its export structure, national income is particularly

Delivering the blueprint

vulnerable to the inherent volatility of global commodity prices. Namibia’s export structure shows significant economic
concentration in primary sector products.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: MIT/Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity 10
 A
WHERE WE STAND

4Suppressed private PRIVATE SECTOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN NAMIBIA

Private sector fixed capital formation, % of GDP, 15-year trend

Where we stand
opportunities
The World Bank concludes that a strict regulatory
environment has undermined domestic investment
and contributed to sub-potential non-mining FDI. 30

Pre-2015 average = 23.4%

25
Private sector straitjacket
B
› An economy constrained by confined private investment,
suggesting that risk-adjusted returns could not compensate the 20
cost of capital.

A new growth agenda

› Declining investment in key economic sectors has restrained Post-2015 average = 14%
competitiveness, stifling growth and job creation. 15

Crowding out entrepreneurship

10
› A large public sector present in the private space through
parastatals and SOEs creates market inefficiencies and crowds
out private actors.
5
› A monopolistic market structure where few big players dominate
and use their position to restrict entry by new competitors.
C
0
Financial limitations 2007 2008
2008 2009 2010
2010 2011 2012
2012 2013 2014
2014 2015 2016
2016 2017 2018
2018 2019 2020
2020 2021 2022
2022
› Credit to the private sector as percentage of GDP is very low
relative to the average of upper-middle-income countries (72% vs

Delivering the blueprint

126%).
› A concentrated banking sector (4 banks hold 98% of financial
assets) limits competition and restricts lending, particularly to
MSMEs.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: World Bank Development Indicators 11
 A
WHERE WE STAND

5 Climate change Ruacana

hydropower
CLIMATE CHANGE
Projected change in % rainfall and temperature, 2020 to 2060

Where we stand
threats
Climate change is forecast to
intensify water stress, droughts,
and agricultural insecurity.

High vulnerability to climate change

B
› The northeast will suffer the largest increase in temperature,
while the southwest will suffer the greatest rainfall reduction. 2065
› However, changes in temperature and precipitation will result in

A new growth agenda

both prolonged droughts and flooding events more frequent. 2045

Increasing water scarcity impacting all economic sectors Present

› Prolonged droughts are increasingly common and pervasive.
One-third of the population rely on agriculture for incomes.
› Namibia is getting warmer and drier.
› Water shortages have affected Ruacana hydropower project, As a consequence, the areas that suit
with generation severely curtailed during 2022/23 drought. commercial livestock farming are
retreating rapidly.
Energy transition presents opportunities
› Namibia could lead the region adoption of technologies and
› By 2065, it is forecast that grazing
lands south of Otjiwarongo will no
C
techniques to increase climate change resilience. longer be able to accommodate
commercial farming.
› This may encompass from smart agriculture and water
desalination, to the harvesting of solar and wind power. › This equates to a continuous

Delivering the blueprint

northward retreat of around 5km
every year.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: Brown, L.H. (2009) The economic impact of climate 12
change on commercial agriculture in Namibia
 A
WHERE WE STAND

Looking to the future

Where we stand
Namibia must realise a new growth agenda – one that supercharges productivity, builds domestic skills, opens new
markets, channels private investment, and enhances climate resilience.

FROM TO

Lethargic productivity Technology and innovation B

Embracing economic modernisation to add value throughout the economy.

A new growth agenda

Mismatched skills Engineered talent pipeline
Upskilling the nation to serve high productivity industries and boost incomes.

Domestic market limitations Diversified global marketplace

Employ competitive advantage to leverage regional economies of scale.

C
Sluggish private sector Revitalised commercial opportunities
Foster untapped business opportunities to attract private capital and expertise.

Delivering the blueprint

Climate-constrained Low-carbon industry pioneer
Become an early regional mover to capitalise on a whole new global industry.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 13

 B A new growth agenda

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA

The global agenda: Accelerating energy transition

Where we stand
The world is changing quickly as it accelerates towards net zero. New markets and new growth pathways are emerging
for nations that can react to current global priorities.

B
>140 3/4 85% $850bn
countries now have a of new energy capacity reliance on China for critical mineral of green debt issued

A new growth agenda

net zero 2050 target from renewables (2023) supply chain (2023)

DECARBONISATION TARGETS ENERGY TRANSITION RESOURCE SECURITY GREEN CAPITAL

› In 2020, the global commitment to › The global energy mix is radically › Over-reliance on a small number of › The global urgency to address
decarbonisation was entrenched and rapidly shifting from fossil fuels oil/gas producing nations has had climate change is increasingly
during the COP26 conference. to renewables. geopolitical repercussions. mobilising minds and money.

› The number of countries with a net › By 2030, renewables are expected › As the energy transition unfolds, the › As such, assets with strong green
zero target doubled. Targets have to represent at least 40% of the focus turns to critical minerals – credentials are ever more attractive
been integrated into public policies. global energy mix. which are dominated by China. to global investors.
C
› Other policy instruments (new › Yet the current scale of expansion › There is a concerted and › Governments and investors that
carbon subsidies and taxes) will falls short of net zero commitments competitive effort underway to embrace the green agenda will have
further drive this global push. – more green capacity is needed. diversify access to critical minerals. advantage in the race for capital.

Delivering the blueprint

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 15
 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA

The regional agenda: Deepening trade and integration

Where we stand
Shifting geopolitics and the emergence of a renewed push towards African integration unlock regional collaboration,
trade, and investment opportunities.

Deepening African trade integration Industrialised nations seeking trade allies

A new growth agenda

AGENDA 2063 AFRICAN CFTA CRITICAL RAW MINERALS CLUB BILATERAL AGREEMENTS

› Agenda 2063 brings unity, › AfCFTA, key to Agenda 2063, has › Aims to strengthen EU’s raw › Competition has seen countries
economic independence, and grown to be the world’s largest free material supply by forging long- increasingly pursue green bilateral
collective prosperity to the fore. trade area. term trade relations. agreements.

› The agenda charts a path to › Free movement of goods and › It pursues collaboration with › Existing deals with Germany and
transform Africa into a global services supports regional value resource-rich countries to diversify Japan have paved the way – more
powerhouse. chains and value adding. mineral value chains. can follow.
C
› It will also bring intercontinental › Namibia can capitalise on reduced › Co-chairing of Club launch at › Such deals are most effective when
value chain linkages that support trade barriers to centralise regional COP28 validates Namibia’s strategic they both mobilise funds and secure
industrialisation in Namibia. trade. role and opportunity. offtake markets.

Delivering the blueprint

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 16
 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA

The domestic agenda: Vision 2030

Where we stand
The goals set out in Vision 2030 remain valid – especially the intent to industrialise via thriving manufacturing and
service sectors. The global green agenda offers Namibia the window to capitalise.

VISION 2030

Prosperity Industrialised nation Harmony Peace & political stability B

A new growth agenda

DIVERSIFICATION VALUE ADDING SKILLED WORKFORCE REGIONAL INTEGRATION

› Primary sectors underpin a variety › Namibia builds processing capacity › Continued investment in skills › Greater alignment of regional C
of new secondary sector to valorise its own natural development responds to political, economic, and institutional
opportunities. resources. industrialisation needs. arrangements.
› Higher-skill manufacturing › In parallel, it offers neighbours the › Targeted investment in knowledge- › Namibia as regionally

Delivering the blueprint

industries come to the fore (target
means to add value to regional economy skills delivers higher interconnected leads collaborative
80% of GDP).
commodities. productivity. initiatives.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 17

 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA

Vision 2030 economic targets

Where we stand
While there has been continued progress since Vision 2030 was first adopted, a significant acceleration is required if
we are to achieve our 2030 targets.

VALUE ADDING JOB CREATION ECONOMIC STABILITY INCOME DISTRIBUTION

A new growth agenda

Secondary share of GDP Unemployment rate Inflation rate Gini coefficient

Target Target Target Target

42% 2.3% 4.5% 0.30 C

Latest: 15.8% Latest: 33.4% TARGET MET Latest: 0.56

Delivering the blueprint

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: Namibia Statistics Agency 18
 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA

The emerging

Where we stand
vision
Green industrialisation is the
opportunity that binds domestic,
regional, and global agendas.
Green exports
to EU Crops
Clean
Green exports energy
to EU
B

A new growth agenda

Clean
Bulk energy Water
fuels

“
Namibia, working with its
neighbours, to deliver a new
Windhoek

global gateway that creates

modern trade and low-carbon Crops
C
industrial opportunities, placing Clean
energy
the region at the centre of a

Delivering the blueprint

& iron ore

rapidly greening world.

Green exports
to Japan/
S.Korea

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 19

 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA

The dual pillars of a green industrialisation blueprint

Where we stand
This ambitious industrialisation agenda requires mobilisation of resources to fund public infrastructure enablers and the
engagement of private companies to take up investable opportunities.

1 INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS 2 INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES

Moving goods that are key to the global green agenda Adding value to global green growth goods

Competitive transport & logistics Competitive industries and high-value services

B
› A modern infrastructure network including › Taking up large investment opportunities in green
railways, powerlines, port access, and trade hubs. manufacturing, renewable energy, trade & logistics.

A new growth agenda

› A regional approach will generate economies of › A broad regional strategy creates synergies and
scale and increase global competitiveness. reduces production costs.

Publicly driven enablers Privately driven investments

› The public sector takes the lead to consolidate › Unparallel opportunity to mobilise FDI and boost
plans and mobilise resources. overall level of investment.
› Holistic approach includes cross-country › Particularly attractive for large players and OEM to
coordination through governments collaboration. localise technology and connect to markets.

Multi-party financing Financial C

› A programme of this scale will require significant › Vast capital needs for emerging industries to be
funding tailored to the region. met by private funding.
› Public-driven PPPs and constitution of › Funds mobilisation respond to ambitious regional

Delivering the blueprint

consortiums with multilateral funding. narrative, rather than individual investments

See infrastructure catalogue on pages 29-34 See industry catalogue on pages 35-51

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 20

 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA
SEE ANNEXE p29-34 FOR DETAILS

1 Key infrastructure enablers

Where we stand
Realisation of the agenda will require delivery of a handful of priority pieces of infrastructure to enhance access to
neighbouring markets and beyond.

Rationale Investment requirements Policy considerations Capex (est.) Location

› Extend cost-effective transport › Track upgrade to SADC standard › Reform international freight >$10 billion
distances to capture regional trade (speed & axle load) policy. Donor-support for › Trans Caprivi
Rail

1. from further afield. › Rolling stock replacement › Digitise border processing upgrades › Trans Kalahari
› Bulk capacity to transport minerals &
inputs needed for target industries.
› New rail connections to Zambia, › Scale-up Corridor Trip PPPs for new › Trans Orange B
p.30 Botswana and beyond Monitoring System pilot. builds

› New deepwater ports: Walvis $3 billion

› Broaden commodity type & capacity › Regulations and policy

A new growth agenda

that can be exported. Non-container Bay North Port, Angra Point, and required to accommodate Walvis Bay North › Walvis Bay
Ports

2. capacity currently constrained. (in long term) Cape Fria new industries. › Lüderitz
$2.1 billion
› Ensure specialised deepwater capacity › Sustaining capex at Walvis Bay › Need for skilled logistics Lüderitz Angra Pt › Cape Fria (Kunene)
p.31 for gH2 industries and offshore oil/gas. › Quay extension at Lüderitz professionals.
Both PPP model

› Monetise world-class solar and wind › Hydrogen technology pilots › Broker offtake/market access. $9.4 billion
resources via liquid energy trade. › GW scale solar and wind farms › Raised blended finance to by Hyphen › Karas (South Valley)
gH2

› Underpin investment opportunities in › Electrolysis/ammonia/desal plants support investments. ($1bn to be raised › Erongo (Central Valley)
gH2 upstream/downstream, and › Electricity transmission and gH2 › Develop gH2 and synthetic by SDG Namibia › Kunene (North Valley)
p.32 energy intensive industries. pipelines to supply neighbours fuels regulatory framework. One Fund)

› With hydro vulnerable and imports › Continued private investment in

› Renewables combined with
battery storage could enable a
Private capital C
Electricity

requiring renegotiation, renewables renewables generation Generation

zero-carbon energy sector.
4. can reduce import-dependency › Public sector investment in $138.5m › National
› Continued competition in
› They also lower tariffs, green the transmission & battery storage Transmission &
generation key to further
p.33 sector, & expand access to electricity infrastructure

Delivering the blueprint

lowering consumer tariffs. battery storage
› Avoid risk of enclave industry with › Town planning and infrastructure › Skill-specific training centres
Industrial zones

limited domestic value add. @ Luderitz and programmes needed.

› Establish common user infrastructure › !Nara Namib Industrial Economic › Develop tailored gH2 zoning › Walvis Bay
4. to lower development cost and risk. Zone @ Walvis Bay regulations.
TBD
› Lüderitz
› Clustering industries to minimise › Common user infrastructure for › Support to local firms to
p.34 footprint and maximise efficiencies. Southern Valley gH2 exploit linkage opportunities.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 21

 A
A NEW GROWTH AGENDA
SEE ANNEXE p35-51 FOR DETAILS

2 Target investable industries

Where we stand
A shortlist of prioritised target industries have been identified that can spearhead the attraction of modern, value-
adding, employment-generating industries.

Value-add potential Employment potential

Opportunity description Execution model Possible location
(direct+indirect+induced) (direct+indirect+induced)
Renewable energy hardware

Cell manufacture & panel assembly to Attract OEM cell producers, incubate 2030 $194m 2030 2.5k
1. Solar panel $1.3b 12k
serve domestic gH2 needs, then local companies for module assembly, 2040 2040 Erongo & Karas
manufacturing expand regionally as costs decline. then localise adjacent industries. 2050 $1.8b 2050 22k

2030 $148m 2030 3.2k

B
Assemble electrolyser stack & Invite major OEMs or int’l energy
2. Electrolyser $822m 13.4k Karas (or
balance of plant to serve gH2 needs, firms to set up local production by 2040 2040
manufacturing Erongo)
then expand upstream and regionally. orchestrating offtake agreements. 2050 $1.3b 2050 28k

A new growth agenda

Produce wind turbine towers and Incubate local firm to produce towers 2030 $186m 2030 7.7k
3. Wind turbine $627m 20k Karas/
blades locally to serve gH2 needs, and invite major OEMs to set up 2040 2040
manufacturing Kunene
then supply blades regionally. domestic blade production. 2050 $666m 2050 27k

Refine local concentrate to technical Broker technical-grade lithium 2030 $165m 2030 5.8k
Mineral refining

4. Lithium 2040 $207m 2040 7.1k

grade lithium for export to EU, taking refining JV between local player and Walvis Bay
refinery advantage of diversification push. EU-based battery-grade refiner. 2050 $248m 2050 8.6k

Leveraging announced REE projects, Collaborate with Chinese refiner or 2030 $89m 2030 2.6k
5. Rare earth Walvis Bay/
develop domestic separation facility invest in R&D with EU/US-based REE 2040 $176m 2040 4.1k
elements refinery Kunene
to produce rare earth oxides. operator to explore new technology. 2050 $176m 2050 4.1k
C
Low CO2

Use low-cost, low-CO2 energy to Attract int’l player to launch local 2030 $184m 2030 2.4k
6. Flat glass 2040 $387m 2040 4.9k
produce flat glass for Africa & EU, production. Export to Africa/EU, then Erongo
production then expand into local raw materials. expand to downstream products. $553m 7.1k
2050 2050

Delivering the blueprint

Use bush biomass to produce Push JV between int’l SAF developer 2030 $47m 2030 0.6k
gH2 derivatives

7. Synthetic fuel $605m 4.9k Walvis Bay/

biogenic CO2 feedstock and gH2 to and existing player to produce e-SAF 2040 2040
production Kunene
produce synthetic fuel for EU aviation using local gH2 & biogenic CO2. 2050 $1.9b 2050 16k

Produce green HBI/DRI using gH2 for Incubate local firm & engage miners/ 2030 $245m 2030 1.3k
8. Hot briquetted $736m 4k
EU, then grow to supply other ‘green traders to secure iron supply. Strike 2040 2040 Walvis Bay
iron production steel’ demand centres (e.g., S.Africa). offtake agmts with int’l steel players. 2050 $1.2b 2050 7.9k

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 22

 C Delivering the blueprint

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

 A
DELIVERING THE BLUEPRINT INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS
Rail p30

The blueprint for Trans Caprivi

› Upgrades Walvis Bay-Tsumeb
› New rail Otavi-Katima Mulilo

Where we stand
green industrialisation Northern Valley
› Connection to Zambia
Trans Kalahari
Trans › Upgrade Windhoek-Gobabis
Soda ash › New rail to Gaborone
The new agenda brings together a (Etosha)
Caprivi
40 Trans Orange
series of prioritised and integrated Cape Fria MW
› Upgrade Lüderitz-RSA
public and private investments. Rare earth
3 5 7 elements
Port p31
20
(Lofdal) MW Cape Fria
Rare earth › gH2 derivatives port
elements
INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES (Etaneno) Walvis Bay

Solar panel manufacturing, p36

› Container terminal upgrades
› North Port deepwater
B
1
Renewable energy hardware

Capex (by 2050): $170m Central Valley › Container terminal extension

Okahandja
Location: Walvis Bay/Lüderitz 50 Lüderitz
trade & logistics hub
MW › Quay extension

A new growth agenda

2 Electrolyser manufacturing, p38 20 › Angra Point deepwater
MW Trans
Capex (by 2050): $250m › Dry/liquid bulk export terminals
Location: Lüderitz (or Walvis Bay) Kalahari
Walvis Bay Iron ore
(Dordabis) Green hydrogen p32
3 Wind turbine manufacturing, p40
Capex (by 2050): $200m 1 2 4 Northern Valley
Location: Lüderitz & Kunene › Solar/wind/ammonia plant + desal.
Central Valley
4 Lithium refinery, p42 › Pilot: gH2 Tugs/cranes
Mineral refining

Capex (by 2050): $900m 5 6 7 › Pilot: gH2 locomotives

Location: Walvis Bay › Pilot: gH2 green villages
8
› Pilot: gH2 refuelling
Rare earth elements refinery, p44 Southern Valley › Pilot: gH2 utility power
5
Capex (by 2050): $300m
Location: Walvis Bay (or Kunene) 60
MW
› Solar/ammonia plant + desalination
Southern Valley
C
Lüderitz
Keetmanshoop › 7.5GW solar/wind power
Low CO2

6 Flat glass production, p46 trade & logistics hub › 370ktpa hydrogen plant + desalination
Capex (by 2050): $1.5bn 94 › 2mtpa ammonia plant
Location: Walvis Bay MW › Power connection to RSA

Delivering the blueprint

70 Trans
Synthetic fuel production, p48 MW
7 Orange Electricity p33
gH2 derivatives

Capex (by 2050): $20bn 1 2 3

Location: Walvis Bay & Kunene › NamPower generation
› IPP generation
Hot briquetted iron production, p50 › Transmission backbone
8 › Battery energy storage systems
Capex (by 2050): $6bn Offshore oil & gas
Location: Walvis Bay
est. 7bn BOE reserves Industrial zones p34
› Walvis Bay
› Lüderitz
Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint › Inland trade hubs 24
 A
DELIVERING THE BLUEPRINT

Domestic benefits

Where we stand
Green industrialisation can establish a new growth trajectory. By addressing Namibia’s current structural challenges, it will
deliver high-skill jobs, increased productivity, create new markets, attract FDI, and position Namibia as a climate leader.

1 2 3 4 5

Growth Employment Markets Investment Decarbonisation

B

+$10bn +250k +$20bn +$55bn 75mtpa

A new growth agenda

GDP jobs exports FDI CO2 abated

Potentially doubling the Equal to 1/5th of 2040 Quintupling current annual Nearly ten times the 20x Namibia’s total annual
size of the economy. projected labour force. national exports ($4.7bn). national stock of FDI. CO2 emissions.
› $6bn added to the › Estimated 185,000 direct › $12bn in gH2 exports › ~$40bn to kickstart gH2 › Carbon abatement from
economy from gH2 jobs in the hydrogen (assumes 5mtpa H2e at and green manufacturing Hyphen’s 370kt green
projects. industry alone. $2,400/tH2e). industries. hydrogen project. C
› $5bn directly from green › 70,000 direct, indirect, › $10bn from new green › Over $15bn to support › Allows for a zero CO2 and
manufacturing and and induced jobs from manufacturing sectors regional connectivity and zero-import domestic
indirect/induced sectors. green manufacturing. (p.32-48). port developments. energy grid.

Delivering the blueprint

› The total benefits from › Even more from › Infrastructure investment › Major investments › Elevates Namibia as a
infrastructure only infrastructure upgrades to enable improved already well advanced, global green industry
partially accounted for. e.g., ports and rail. transport and logistic. e.g. Hyphen. manufacturing leader.

Note - estimated impacts by 2040. Based on published statements only and hence non comprehensive.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 25

 A
DELIVERING THE BLUEPRINT

Regional relevance

Where we stand
Namibia sits at the centre of a regional opportunity to foster strategic cooperation, green growth, two-way trade, and
prosperity for southern Africa.

1 2 3 4 5

Regional growth Skilled employment Connected markets FDI destination Low-carbon leader
B

A new growth agenda

› Increased trade and › High skill employment › Expedited market access › Enhanced opportunities › Progress against national
export capacity for land opportunities in a tech- and reduced cost to to attract green capital carbon targets through
locked countries. advanced industry. market. from EU/Japan/US. clean energy access.
› Improved economies of › Jobs unlocked in value › Decongestion of trade › Significant critical mineral › A premium attracted for
scale and improved
economic linkages.
adding industries through
low cost, clean energy.
routes and improved
access to market.
investment opportunities
as a regional supply hub.
services through low-
carbon economic activity.
C
› Increased efficiency of › Coordinated capacity › A gateway to a multi- › Greater investment › An opportunity to
cross-border movements building and regional billion-dollar, high value attractiveness as a region become pioneers in the

Delivering the blueprint

through the AfCFTA. skills specialisation. global green market. working together. global race to net zero.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 26

 A
DELIVERING THE BLUEPRINT

Financing needs and approach

Where we stand
Both public infrastructure and private industry opportunities require very considerable capital investment. Syndication
of a coherent green industrialisation strategy can underpin mobilisation of the necessary resources.

>$15bn >$40bn B
INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES

Spending commitments fall short of needs Step-change in FDI inflows required

A new growth agenda

› Planned $4bn spend on infrastructure over 5 years › Namibia has attracted a cumulative total of $6.3bn
– using public, private, and development finance. in FDI, with focus on mining, tourism. & agriculture.
› Frontloaded nature of investment in infrastructure › Whilst bankable projects will attract funds, this
force innovative financing approaches. implies a five-fold increase in total stock of FDI.

Off-budget financing required Government support key to mobilising funds

› Enabling infrastructure investment needs far exceed › Namibia is a stable, attractive investing destination
mid-term budget muscle. – but these projects are bigger than any previous.
› Domestic and international private sector funding › Government support needed to broker relationships C
will be needed via PPPs, concessions, etc. with donors, local firms, OEMs, and off-takers.

Holistic financing strategy key New delivery mindset and muscle

Delivering the blueprint

› Private investors require confidence that public › Dedicated delivery capability required to
enabler infrastructure can be funded. coordinate, convene, and convince investors.
› First step to approach multilateral, bilateral, and › Gov’t must formulate and pitch a blueprint that
others to establish financing capacity & approach. combines the languages of business and diplomacy.

Note: Capex estimate inc. rail and port only. Note: Capex estimate inc. gH2 and manufacturing .

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 27

 A
DELIVERING THE BLUEPRINT

Roadmap

Where we stand
Realising the blueprint requires parallel delivery of three distinct workstreams. Government must act quickly and
decisively to streamline policy, attract investors, and deliver enabling infrastructure.
Development phase Construction & ops
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 and beyond

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS
Trans Caprivi AfDB Transport Infrastructure Improvement Project Phase 2 Grootfontein-Katima Mulilo
Rail Trans Kalahari RFP Feasibility study Financing Development
Trans Orange
Lüderitz RFP
Debottlenecking
Construction – quay extension Construction – Angra Point ammonia berth
Capacity expansion
Construction – AP dry/liquid bulks
B
Port Walvis Bay Dredging & upgrade North port construction
Kunene (Cape Fria) 2030+ new port construction

A new growth agenda

Southern Valley Hyphen - Engineering and permitting Hyphen - Financing Hyphen - construction phase 1 Hyphen – phase 2
Green hydrogen Central Valley Ongoing pilots Feasibility – solar/ammonia Construction - solar/ammonia/desal
Northern Valley 2030+ Solar/wind, ammonia, desal
NamPower generation Construction - Otjikoto (40MW)
Electricity IPP generation Construction – Cerim (50MW) & Rosh Pinah (70MW)
Transmission/storage RFP Construction – Auas to Kokerboom 400kV line & battery energy storage system Other new transmission lines
Lüderitz Planning study Construction (site & utilities)
Industrial zones Walvis Bay Planning study Construction (site & utilities)
Trade & logistics hubs Feasibility study RfP Design Construction
INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES (indicative timescale)
Solar panel manufacturing Pursue investor/RfP Development Construction Scaling-up
Renewable
Electrolyser manufacturing Pursue investor/RfP Development Construction Scaling-up
energy hardware
Wind turbine manufacturing
Lithium refinery
Pursue investor/RfP
Pursue investor/RfP
Development Construction
Construction
Scaling-up
Scaling-up
C
Development
Mineral refining
Rare earth elements refinery Pursue investor/RfP Development Construction
Low-CO2 industry Flat glass production Pursue investor/RfP Development Construction Scaling-up
Synthetic fuel production Pursue technology partner Pilot Scaling-up
gH2 derivatives

Delivering the blueprint

Hot briquetted iron Mine FS HBI pilot HBI development Scaling-up

POLICY & INSTITUTIONAL

Given the scale of ambition, government must actively
Central ‘decision Pursue investors & develop common Advocate green industrialisation &
champion, drive, and support the realisation of the
making’ platform user infrastructure continue policy reforms
green industrialisation blueprint. A series of cross-
> Map investors > Investor/bilateral roadshows > Broker JVs/offtake contracts/other partnerships
cutting interventions are required to attract investors,
> Develop pitches > One-stop-shop for investors > Ensure adequacy of common user infrastructure
build local capacity, and ensure that Namibia becomes
> Tech studies > Establish SEZs > Position Namibia as prime manufacturing location
a low-cost, high-potential green industrial destination.
> Policy support > Pursue bilateral/int’l funding > Pursue bilateral trade and investment agreements
> Approvals > Craft skills development strategy > Strengthen policy, regulations, and skill base

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 28

 Annexe 1 Catalogue of
infrastructure enablers

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

 ANNEXE 1 – CATALOGUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS

To Lusaka &

Infrastructure – To Lubango
Copperbelt
WHAT

1
rail 2

Debottlenecking and new cross-border

connections required to prevail as Katima Mulilo – Livingstone 202km
1 New build - TBD
preferred regional trade gateway. 3 Gov’t of Zambia
4
Grootfontein – Katima Mulilo 771km
2 New build - $2.3bn
Northern connections (Trans Caprivi; Trans Cunene) Unfunded

› Short-term: Kranzberg - Otjiwarango track replacement & Walvis

5 Otavi-Grootfontein 90km
Bay – Tsumeb signalling upgrades 3 Track replacement - $165m
› Mid-term: Otavi – Grootfontein track replacement; Grootfontein - 6 7 Unfunded
Katima Mulilo new track. To Gaborone &
› Long-term: connections to Livingston & Lubango. Gauteng Walvis Bay-Tsumeb 567km
4 Signalling upgrades (costed in #5)
AfDB TIIP Phase 2
Eastern connections (Trans Kalahari)
› Short-term: Walvis Bay - Gobabis new rolling stock to transport Kranzberg-Otjiwarango 207km
5 Track replacement - $320m
Botswanan coal AfDB TIIP Phase 2
› Mid-term: Trans Kalahari PPP proposals under evaluation.
Windhoek - Gobabis 225km
6 Track replacement - $216m
Southern connections (Trans Orange)
Unfunded
› Short-term: Heavy maintenance Lüderitz-Ariamsvlei to
debottleneck Northern Cape manganese. Gobabis - Lobatse 870km
› Long-term: Increase capacity to enable RSA iron ore for green 7 New build- TBD
PPP RFP underway
hot briquetted iron/direct reduction iron using gH2. 8
Lüderitz-Ariamsvlei 604km
Sector wide initiatives: 8 Heavy maintenance - $81m
Unfunded
› Rolling stock modernisation – DBN/DBSA US$114m loan To Northern Cape mines,
East London,
› Hydrogen dual-fuel rolling stock (HyRail) - €7.6m pilot Port Elizabeth

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 30 30

Client | Assignment
 ANNEXE 1 – CATALOGUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS
1 Walvis Bay
Continued container port expansion and regional-
Infrastructure –
WHAT

scale integrated dry/liquid bulks export facility.

ports North
Port
Expand port capacity to accommodate
enhanced regional trade flows and
exploit green manufacturing industries.

South
Port
Walvis Bay
Well-positioned to emerge as dominant regional logistics hub,
exploiting cost-competitiveness and good connections to serve
landlocked neighbours.
› Short-term: New South Port container concessionaire to dredge
channel ($42.5m) to expand capacity, plus investment in new 1
handling equipment ($53m).
› Mid-term: Greenfield North Port (>$3bn) to serve SADC, focusing 2 Lüderitz
on dry bulk & liquid bulk. Key to gH2 ambitions and serving Expand throughput via manganese exports while
investing in deep-water gH2 export/processing.
offshore oil/gas prospects.
› Long-term: Extend South Port to accommodate further regional
containerised trade and trans-shipment. Angra Point
Robert
Harbour
Lüderitz
Capacity-constrained and lacks deepwater access. New port &
2
onshore facilities critical to gH2 potential agenda.
› Short-term: Extend Robert Harbour quay to serve manganese
export and gH2 construction.
› Mid-term: Greenfield Angra Point deepwater port to establish
gH2 export industry.
› Long-term: Dedicated dry bulk/liquid bulk terminals to meet Offshore oil & gas
specialised needs of clean energy industries. est. 7bn BOE reserves

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 31 31

Client | Assignment
 ANNEXE 1 – CATALOGUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS
Kunene
Northern Valley
Infrastructure –
WHAT

Solar/wind farm and hydrogen/

green hydrogen Northern Valley

ammonia plant @ Puros, with new
port @ Cape Fria to facilitate
ammonia (and mineral) exports.
A hydrogen ecosystem to deliver
energy security and jump start Erongo
Central Valley
Namibia's industrialisation agenda.
Hydrogen pilot hub:
› Tugs/crane conversion (NamPort)
› Dual-fuel locos (TransNamib)
An integrated long-term delivery strategy › Green villages (Daures)
Central Valley
› gH2 is the intermediary that can connect Namibia’s world- › Refuelling station (Cleanergy)
class solar & wind resources to global energy markets. › gH2 utility-scale powerplant (HDF)

› But distance to key markets jeopardises low-cost status Elof Hansson

- Cleantech
Infrastructure to enable future at-
required to gain market share – and thus necessitates both scale gH2 industrial applications, inc.

scale and local processing into energy-dense derivatives. Zhero › Solar/ammonia (EH-C; Zhero)
› HBI/green steel (Hyron)
› Long-term strategy therefore targets an at-scale
› Synthetic fuels
integrated hydrogen ecosystem that minimises levelized
› Solar panels/flat glass
energy cost and maximises the portfolio of industrial uses.
› Key success factors to building a gH2 ecosystem and gain a Karas
global foothold include attracting vast capital, developing Southern Valley (SCDI)
new technology, and securing long-term market access.
Southern Valley Project Hyphen – 1st step in
Namibia’s gH2 industrialisation
Sequenced development of multiple hubs
› The strategy envisages progressive development of three Fully integrated $9.4bn project
distinct green hydrogen ‘valleys’. Each can serve as the › 3.5GW solar & 4GW wind power
Namibian node of regional green hydrogen ‘corridors’ that › Electrolysis plant to produce
connect SADC resources to global markets. 370ktpa gH2
› Short-term: Karas – Ammonia production. › Ammonia plant to convert gH2 to
2mtpa ammonia for export to EU
› Mid-term: Erongo – Industrial derivatives & gH2 logistics.
› Backbone common-user
› Long-term: Kunene – Ammonia/synfuel expandability. infrastructure for future up to
x10 capacity expansion.

gH2/surplus electricity into

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Southern African Power Pool 32 32
Client | Assignment
 SOURCE (EXISTING) SOURCE (DEVELOPMENT) CAPACITY TRANSMISSION/STORAGE
Hydro (347MW) 40MW 220kV+
ANNEXE 1 – CATALOGUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS Fossil (50MW)
Fossil (142.5MW) Solar (170MW) 20 < 220kv
Solar (155MW) Wind (94MW) 220kV+ planned

Infrastructure – Baynes
Wind (5MW) Biomass (40MW)
5
Battery storage
WHAT

hydro Ruacana

electricity Otjikoto
40MW Future power
Generation
NamPower (public)

surplus to 510MW existing NamPower capacity.

Public-private collaboration is BWA/ZIM/ZAM Further 160MW under development.
transforming the electricity sector, › 70MW solar PV @ Rosh Pinah
Gerus › 50MW heavy fuel oil @ Walvis Bay
with renewables at the forefront. 20MW
› 40MW biomass @ Otjikoto
Planned developments:
› Mid-term: 450MW Kudu gas CHP
The emergence of a hybrid decentralised model › Long-term: 878MW Baynes hydro
(shared between Namibia/Angola)
› The sector has long been characterised by heavy reliance (~70%) Khan
Omburo
on electricity imports – much of which is coal fired. 20MW Generation
Van IPPs (private)
› World-class solar and wind resources underpin scope to reduce Anixas II
Eck
50MW 140MW existing installed capacity,
import-dependency, lower tariffs, green the sector, and expand Anixas I mostly relatively small-scale. Further
access to electricity (currently sitting at 55%). 194MW under development:
› Government has embraced a hybrid decentralised model with › 94MW wind @ Diaz/Cerim (Karas)
multiple actors generating electricity. › 60MW solar PV @SolNam (Karas)
› 20MW solar PV @ Khan (Erongo)
› Policy increasingly channels private capital into renewable Alten › 20MW @ Gerus (Kunene)
generation, alongside publicly-funded transmission upgrades.
Planned private-sector tenders:
› Short-term: 300MW feed-in PV
Accelerating towards a secure and clean energy future
› Mid-term: 300-500MW wind
› Opening-up generation to IPPs has turned Namibia into a leading Cerim 50MW
SolNam
African destination for renewable energy investment. 60MW Transmission & storage
GreeNam
NamPower (public)
› The transformation has been accompanied by plummeting costs,
New investments to integrate IPPs,
which are now some of the lowest in the region. improve grid stability and efficiency,
Rosh Pinah
and open doors to regional exports.
Transmission upgrades reinforcing the backbone 70MW Planned short-term developments
Diaz 44MW
› Investment in upgraded transmission and new storage › Back-up line Auas-Kokerboom
infrastructure is key to scaling-up renewables deployment. › 25MW battery storage
Mid- to long-term developments:
› This will both help manage intra-day demand peaks and facilitate Kudu
gas Future power
› Upgraded links to RSA/ZIM/ZAM
power exports through regional integration. surplus to RSA
› Trans Kalahari connection to BWA
gH2/surplus electricity into
Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Southern African Power Pool 33 33
Client | Assignment
 ANNEXE 1 – CATALOGUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE ENABLERS
1 Walvis Bay
Walvis Bay can become Southern Africa’s
Infrastructure –
WHAT

premier container, dry bulk and liquid bulk hub.

industrial zones
Two industrial zones supporting adjacent Southern
African
ports, plus two logistics hubs supporting Gateway
Port
inland trade movements.

Industrial policy
› Green industrialisation requires a concerted programme to
attract investors, inc. incentives via manufacturing SEZ. Okahandja !Nara Namib
trade & logistics hub Industrial Zone
› Zones consolidate use of infrastructure to manage impact and
make potential investments more competitive.
1
Geographical focus
› Walvis Bay can build on !Nara Namib to exploit synergies and 2 Lüderitz
interconnectivity as a diversified manufacturing site. The town must expand to accommodate booming
population and gH2 manufacturing opportunities.
› Lüderitz is best placed to accommodate new town and industrial
expansion, incl. large scale gH2 manufacturing.
Green
Trade and logistics hubs Lüderitz manufacturing
Angra zone
› Centralised stoking & trading facilities strategically located at key Point
Keetmanshoop
transport nodes working in line with seaports. trade &
2 logistics hub
› At junctions of major highways to neighbouring countries, New town
gH2
Okahandja & Keetmanshoop offer good potential markets. zone

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 34 34

Client | Assignment
 Annexe 2 Catalogue of
investable industries

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

1 Solar panel manufacturing

Where we stand
Manufacture solar cells and assemble PV modules locally, using imported intermediate product,
to serve anticipated domestic gH2 demand. Expand regionally once cost-competitive.
Renewable energy hardware

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: Four steps in value chain; China dominates all % global PV panel production, by value chain stage
China RoW
› Solar panels are the most valuable component in PV systems.
› Panel manufacturing involves industrial processing of silicon and step-by-
step manufacturing of wafer >> cell >> PV module.
› China dominates all steps, especially raw materials & intermediate product. 79
95
76 68
B
› Silicon production is resource-dependent, while wafer/cell/module
Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module
manufacturing are less complex and more labour-intensive. processing production manufacturing assembly

A new growth agenda

MARKET OUTLOOK: Local panel demand inextricably tied to gH2 Namibia solar capacity in GW,
forecast, serving gH2 only
› Namibia panel demand driven by green hydrogen export industry. 59
› Green hydrogen projections equate to 59GW panel capacity by 2050.
› Global panel production capacity currently outpaces demand…
28
› …but US/EU diversification push for geopolitical supply chain resilience.
› Regulations & incentives emerging to reduce dependence on China. 1 3
› Scope to sell regionally to access market beyond Namibia gH2. 2025 2030 2040 2050

C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Reinforce low-cost global gH2 status Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Greatest localisation potential lies in PV module assembly and cell Direct Indirect Induced

manufacturing (China retains monopoly in silicon and wafer production).

Delivering the blueprint

22
› Green hydrogen will drive local PV demand, but focus needed on cost
competitive production and enabling environment. 12
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced):
1 2.5
› $1.8bn value add (15% of current GDP)
› Up to 22,000 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 36 36

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

1 Solar panel manufacturing

Where we stand
Incentivise international cell producers to set up locally, while incubating local firms for
module assembly. Subsequently localise adjacent industries (esp. glass) to help reduce costs.
$170 m
Renewable energy hardware

by 2050
Capex requirement
Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1. Pursue international Attract established producers to set 0-6m 6-18m › Market study to map players.
manufacturers up local production, facilitated by › Develop pitch book.
securing offtake agreements with › Run investor roadshow. B
green hydrogen developers. › Broker offtake agreements.

2.Establish bilateral Pursue bilateral agreements with › Offer preferential land deals.

A new growth agenda

0-6m 6-18m
incentives preferential terms to support transfer › Develop favourable tax rates.
of excess cell and module production
capacity to Namibia.
›
›
Simplify regulatory framework.
Legislate bilateral incentives.
$1.8 bn
by 2050
3.Set up Special Demarcate special economic zones 0-6m 6-18m › Screen potential locations. Annual value add potential
Economic Zones for production and develop utilities › Commission feasibility study.
and transport infrastructure required › Legislate planning policies.
to support major investments. › Develop shared infrastructure.

4.Adopt localisation Create committed demand (“order

6-18m
› Firm up OEM investment. Importance of enablers C
mandates book”) by mandating part solar PV › Quantify supply capacity. Comparatively low reliance on
component production locally to › Draft local content legislation. infrastructure, inputs, demand.
encourage domestic investment. › Broker offtake agreements.

Delivering the blueprint

Water
5.Foster local start- Support local start-ups at growth › Issue RFP to adjacent firms. Power
18m+ Gas
ups with incentives stage in production, e.g. time-bound › Award targeted set-up grants.
tax allowances, reduced import Ports
› Establish incentive package.
duties, access to finance. Local raw materials
› Connect firms to financing.
Local demand centres

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 37 37

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

2 Electrolyser manufacturing

Where we stand
Assemble electrolyser stack and balance of plant locally, using imported components, to
serve domestic gH2 rollout. Then pursue upstream value chain and regional sales.
Renewable energy hardware

Localisation
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: Central equipment in green hydrogen production Electrolyser manufacturing value chain potential
› Electrolysers used in many industries to split natural substances into Component Component Cell & stack BoP/system
mfg. assembly assembly assembly
constituent components, e.g. water into hydrogen and oxygen gases.
› Scaling-up global green hydrogen production requires a substantial ramp Cost $140-155 $10-20 $20-35 $230-250

up of installed electrolyser production capacity. Avg.

15-30% 25-30% 30-40% 30-40%
B
margin
› Manufacturing and assembly of electrolysers are the least concentrated
# of key
production stage, implying lower barriers to entry for Namibian producers. suppliers
+/-10 30+ 15 30

A new growth agenda

MARKET OUTLOOK: Exponential growth fuelled by green hydrogen boom Namibia electrolyser capacity in GW,
› Currently ~33GW of installed electrolyser capacity globally – yet demand forecast, serving gH2 only
50
expected to rise to 250GW by 2030 on back of green hydrogen.
› Namibia forecast to require 4GW capacity by 2030 and 50GW by 2050.
27
› Global production capacity not fully responding to demand due to
challenge of converting green hydrogen orders into firm commitments.
1 4
› Production capacity concentrated in Europe (40%) and China (26%),
although fragmented market suggests relatively low barriers to entry. 2025 2030 2040 2050

C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Early-mover in a globally important industry Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Anticipated demand from domestic green hydrogen industry creates Direct Indirect Induced

short-term opportunity to on-shore electrolyser manufacturing. 28

Delivering the blueprint

› Longer term, scope to expand upstream into electrolyser component
manufacturing. Requires minimum scale and competitive steel cost. 13

› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced):

3
1
› $1.3bn value add (11% of current GDP)
› Up to 28,000 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 38 38

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

2 Electrolyser manufacturing

Where we stand
Invite major OEMs or international energy players with existing local footprint to set up
assembly plant, while orchestrating offtake agreements with gH2 developers.
$250m
Renewable energy hardware

by 2050
Capex requirement
Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1.Pursue vertically- Engage vertically-integrated OEMs 0-6m 6-18m › Market study to map players.
integrated OEMs that provide renewables generation › Develop pitch book.
and industrial equipment solutions to › Roadshow with major OEMs. B
set up local assembly capabilities. › Create fast-track licensing.

2.Adopt localisation Consider mandating/incentivising › Firm up OEM investment.

A new growth agenda

6-18m
mandates electrolyser stack and Balance of › Quantify supply capacity.
Plant assembly to take place locally
to secure demand.
›
›
Draft local content legislation.
Broker offtake agreements
$1.3 bn
by 2050
3.Encourage existing Engage energy majors that operate › Map suitable firms Annual value add potential
6-18m
oil majors to invest domestically and have diversified into › Develop pitch deck.
green hydrogen and electrolyser › Engage local execs.
production to invest locally. › Roadshow to parent firms.

4.Pursue enhanced Pursue or strengthen trade agmts to

18m+
› Map component producers Importance of enablers C
raw materials access increase trade flows of raw materials › Analyse existing agreements. Comparatively low reliance on
(e.g., provide carbon credits to offset › Engage target countries. infrastructure, inputs, demand.
cost of electrolyser metals inputs). › Tailor tariffs for key imports.

Delivering the blueprint

Water
Power
Gas
Ports
Local raw materials
Local demand centres

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 39 39

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

3 Wind turbine manufacturing

Where we stand
Manufacture wind turbine towers and blades locally to serve anticipated gH2 demand
(initially Karas, then Erongo, and finally Kunene).
Renewable energy hardware

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: Tower & blade size incentivise local manufacturing Indicative turbine cost breakdown, USD, 000’s
420
› Turbines comprises a tower (up to 120m), a ‘nacelle’ (containing gearbox High scope for
and generator), and three rotor blades (+/- 60m each). localisation

› Each of tower, gearbox, and blades represent ~20% of turbine cost.

› High transport costs encourage local tower manufacturing (and, to lesser
B
extent, blades). Ideally plant located within 150km radius of wind farm.
› Namibia cost-competitive for concrete towers and potentially blades.

A new growth agenda

China
Major OEM producers by country RoW
MARKET OUTLOOK: Local demand more than sufficient to support industry % of global capacity EU
› Domestic green hydrogen production will require ~20GW of wind energy
generation capacity by 2050. 28 28 29 32
› First plant would manufacture 80-200 towers annually, rising to ~500
towers and blade sets at peak (from 2040).
› Production historically Euro-centric, but China gradually emerging as largest
2019 2020 2021 2022
player largely due to government support for the industry.

C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Piggy-back local gH2 to then supply regionally Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Namibia has world-class wind resources and existing successes. Direct Indirect Induced
27
› Serve domestic gH2 demand (tower and blades) – initially Karas & Erongo,

Delivering the blueprint

20
later Kunene. Scope for regional export of blades if cost-competitive.
› Existing domestic firms could produce towers; blades requires OEM FDI.
8
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced):
2
› $675m value add (>5% of current GDP)
› Up to 27,000 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 40 40

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

3 Wind turbine manufacturing

Where we stand
Incubate local player to produce concrete or hybrid towers, and attract major OEM
(e.g., Siemens, Vestas, Gamesa, GE, Envision) to set up local blade manufacturing plant.
$200m
Renewable energy hardware

by 2050 (towers & blades)

Capex requirement
Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1.Pursue OEM blade Engage OEMs (e.g., Siemens, Vestas, 0-6m 6-18m › Market study to map players.
manufacturers Gamesa, GE, Envision) to build and › Develop pitch book.
operate blade manufacturing plants. › Roadshow with major OEMs. B
2.Adopt localisation Consider mandating/incentivising a › Firm up OEM investment.
6-18m
mandates percentage of turbine manufacturing › Draft local content legislation.

A new growth agenda

locally to secure demand. › Broker offtake agreements
3.Ease access to
land
Facilitate land access for production
and installation via relevant policies
6-18m
› Define public land lease terms.
› Allocate public land.
$675m
by 2050
and government operations. › Ease titling & deed allocation.
Annual value add potential
4.Streamline set-up Simplify and accelerate licensing and › Implement one-stop shops.
6-18m
regulations permitting process for international › Streamline application process.
OEMs. › Fast-track OEM applications.
5.Foster local start- Support homegrown start-up tower › Host industry workshops.
ups with incentives producers by connecting to finance
18m+
› Provide seed funding grants. Importance of enablers C
and other incubation services. › Draft tax exemptions. Size means proximity to intended
installation site is critical.
6.Develop build & Consider developing regulations that › Consult industry experts.
18m+

Delivering the blueprint

operating standards govern standards and practices for › Draft standards guide. Water
locally produced towers and blades. › Create compliance mechanism. Power
Gas
7.Set parameters for Consider designing “wind 18m+ › Develop risk asmnt guide. Ports
installation ordinances” to provide guardrails for › Define installation parameters. Local raw materials
installation requirements. › Set up enforcement capability. Local demand centres

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 41 41

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

4 Lithium refinery

Where we stand
Refine domestic lithium concentrate to intermediate (“technical grade”) lithium for export
to Europe, taking advantage of EU push to diversify it critical mineral supply chain.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: Historically, lithium shipped to China for refining Lithium refinery capacity, mt carbonate equivalent
Mineral refining

› Lithium does not occur naturally in elemental form – it must be extracted 3,367
from lithium-bearing minerals (most commonly hard rock or liquid brine). RoW 30%

› Refining yields technical-grade lithium carbonate (intermediate product) & EU 12%

further refining for battery-grade lithium hydroxide/lithium carbonate.

China 58%
B
656
› Refineries are technically complex and expensive – China has until now China 93%
dominated the industry, with >90% of processing capacity. 2022 2032 (forecast)

A new growth agenda

MARKET OUTLOOK: EU end-refining capacity requires intermediate input Lithium demand, mt carbonate equivalent
› Lithium demand surging on the back of electric vehicle market, with Carbonate Hydroxide Metal Minerals

demand forecast to increase 10x from 0.3mtpa in 2018 to 3.1mtpa in 2030. 3.1
› Concerted end-user efforts underway to diversify refining. Significant
1.8
onshoring in Europe, Australia, and US – but none to date in Africa.
› EU investing heavily in battery-grade refining capacity – creates opening 0.7
0.3
for Namibia to supply intermediate processed lithium to new EU refineries.
› EU Critical Raw Materials Act establishes platform for strategic partnership. 2018 2022 2026 2030

C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Strong conditions for intermediate refining Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Namibia has quality raw materials, good port infrastructure, and low-cost Direct Indirect Induced

energy, but securing EU offtake agreements is prerequisite for success.

Delivering the blueprint

› Technical-grade refinery likely to be cost-competitive. Scope for domestic
miners and EU refiners to JV for investment in technical-grade refinery.
9
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced): 6 7
2
› $250m value add (2% of current GDP)
› Up to 8,600 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 42 42

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

4 Lithium refining

Where we stand
Broker JV for technical-grade refinery between existing local players (e.g., Andrada, Lepidico)
and EU-based battery-grade refinery developers to pilot then invest in intermediate refinery.
$900m
by 2050
Capex requirement
Mineral refining

Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1. Shortlist potential Shortlist EU firms with announced 0-6m › Map EU developer capability.
pilot plant partners refining projects, to identify viable › Assess Africa invest interest.
partners for pilot & refinery JV. › Formulate potential JVs. B
2.Establish cost Conduct a thorough quantitative cost 0-6m › Benchmark global refining cost
competitiveness analysis on lithium refining in › Analyse local input costs.

A new growth agenda

Namibia. › Review supply chain logistics.
3.Showcase sector
opportunities
Develop a pitch book showcasing
Namibia’s comparative advantages
0-6m › Map comparative advantage.
› Formulate pitch book.
$250m
by 2050
and investment opportunities. › Run targeted roadshow.
Annual value add potential
4.Assess infrastructure Evaluate availability of energy and 0-6m › Model energy needs.
enablers transportation infrastructure around › Map transport needs.
sites considered for lithium refining. › Flag infrastructure gaps.
5.Secure EU financial Mobilise EU investment support (e.g., › Storyboard business case.
& technical support EIB & InvestEU), including grants,
6-18m
› Develop pitch deck. Importance of enablers C
low-cost loans, & technical support. › Run EU financing roadshow. Water/electricity for processing and
port access for lithium imports.
6.Leverage Critical Capitalise on co-chair of Critical Raw 6-18m › Draft refining strategy paper.

Delivering the blueprint

Raw Materials Club Materials Club by promoting Namibia › Promote refining potential. Water
attractiveness for refinery JVs. Power
› Engage w/ EU counterparts.
Gas
7.Define power Engage NamPower to plan for 18m+ › Survey regional energy supply. Ports
modernisation plan improved power supply in lithium › Optioneer new routes using AI. Local raw materials
refining region (i.e., Walvis Bay). › Initiate infrastructure upgrade. Local demand centres

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 43 43

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

5 Rare earth elements (REE) refining

Where we stand
Building upon mining capabilities and announced REE projects, develop and operate a
separation facility in Namibia to add value by producing rare earth oxides.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: REEs are essential throughout the green transition Namibia potential production of REEs, ‘000 t
Mineral refining

› Occur naturally in clustered deposits – but separating elements from each

other during refining requires considerable technical expertise.
› Namibia home to “heavy REEs” – notably dysprosium and terbium. Both
classified as critically important to clean energy and critical supply risk. B
› China has grown to be dominant player throughout the value chain on
back of strong government support and lowest cost operations. 2025 2030 2040 2050

A new growth agenda

MARKET OUTLOOK: China’s dominance raises supply chain concerns REE supply chain market share, %
› Refined REE market worth $9bn – with dysprosium and terbium China RoW
accounting for 20% of production by value.
› Introduction of China export quotas has raised global supply concerns and
triggered price increases and volatility.
89% 90%
› EU and US responding by seeking to diversify supply sources to build 68% 70%
supply chain resilience.
› Security of supply concerns may allow costlier production to enter market. Mining Refining Processing Manufacturing
C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Technical expertise required to add local value Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› >50mt local high-grade resource base to feed domestic separation plant. Direct Indirect Induced

› JV required between domestic producers and international refiners – either

Delivering the blueprint

Chinese or EU/US – to develop local processing and operational expertise.
› China JV offers rapid tech access but may hamper access to EU markets.
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced): 3 4 4
1
› $175m value add (>1% of current GDP)
› Up to 4,100 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 44 44

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

5 Rare earth elements (REE) refining

Where we stand
Collaborate with Chinese partner to expedite market entry (3-6 years) or invest in R&D jointly
with EU/US-based REE operators (e.g., USA RE, REEtec) to test refining technologies locally.
$300m
by 2050
Capex requirement
Mineral refining

Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1. Shortlist potential Evaluate partnering pros/cons with 0-6m › Map industry players.
int’l partners China/EU/US firms, re market entry, › Assess Africa invest interest.
strategic alliances, and ops efficiency. › Formulate potential JVs. B
2.Assess infrastructure Evaluate current availability of 0-6m › Model energy needs.
enablers energy, water and transportation › Map transport network.

A new growth agenda

infrastructure. › Flag infrastructure gaps.
3.Formulate JV terms
and conditions
Define criteria for “fair partnership”
with external partner for JV REE
plant, e.g. transfer pricing regulations.
6-18m › Engage legal support.
› Consult industry experts. $175m
› Draft transfer pricing policies. by 2050
4.Secure int’l financial Mobilise financial and technical 6-18m › Storyboard business case. Annual value add potential
& technical support resources (EU/Invest EU/AfDB) for › Develop pitch deck.
R&D and establishing a refinery. › Run EU financing roadshow.
5.Streamline Transparent & expedited permitting 6-18m › Implement one-stop shops.
permitting process processes (e.g., construction, › Provide government support.
manufacturing, environmental). › Expedite priority applications. Importance of enablers C
6.Adopt regulatory Establish fit-for-purpose regulations 6-18m › Review environmental policy. Requires reliable water and power
framework for sustainable implementation, inc. › Draft sustainability regulations. supply.
handling of radioactive waste. › Assign GoN oversight.

Delivering the blueprint

Water
7.Regional promotion Promote the advantages of a shared 18m+ › Publish economic impact study Power
of Namibia refinery facility within Namibia and across the › Host regional investor forum. Gas
broader Southern Africa region. › Pitch w/regional partners. Ports
8.Define water/power Engage NamPower and NamWater › Survey regional supply routes. Local raw materials
18m+
to plan for improved water/power › Optioneer new routes using AI. Local demand centres
modernisation plan
supply in REE zone (Walvis Bay). › Initiate infrastructure upgrade.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 45 45

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

6 Flat glass production

Where we stand
Produce flat glass using low-cost, low-CO2 energy to target Africa & EU markets, then expand
into local raw materials production (e.g., soda ash) and higher-value flat glass derivatives.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: Access to raw materials and low-cost energy crucial Major flat glass producer emission reduction targets
› Demand driven by construction sector. Of the 4 main types of glass, flat Scope 3 emissions
Low CO2

Scope 1-2 emissions

glass has largest market and is the easiest to transport. -33% by 2030 (vs 2017) -16% by 2030 vs. 2017

› Energy and raw materials each account for 25% of glass cost. -30% by 2030 (vs 2019) -30% by 2030 vs. 2019

› Namibia competitive advantage due to raw material availability, low-cost -30% by 2028 (vs 2021) -17.5% by 2028 vs. 2021
B
clean energy, skilled labour, and quality infrastructure. -21% by 2030 (vs 2018) “Committed to reduce”

› Major glass manufacturers are setting ambitious emission reduction targets. -5% by 2022 (vs 2017) N/A

A new growth agenda

Estimated flat glass imports to Africa, m tonnes
MARKET OUTLOOK: Rapid growth anticipated, particularly in Africa
7.3
› Global market reached $122bn, with 8% YoY growth forecast. $40bn of flat
glass exported annually, with N.America, Europe, & Asia major importers.
4.4
› Africa is world’s fastest growing market for imported flat glass (albeit still
2.6
comparatively small) – increasing 5% p.a. since 2013 vs 1% p.a. global. 1.7
2.1

› Africa & Europe import growth to 2050 will require >150 new flat glass
plants (40+ to serve Africa and 110+ Europe).
2022 2027 2030 2040 2050
C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Cost competitive and low-carbon exporter Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Domestic market small, but cost-competitive for exports to Africa/Europe Direct Indirect Induced

(13% cheaper than current Africa price; 23% cheaper than Europe price).

Delivering the blueprint

› Opportunity to set up production plant and then expand upstream via
domestic production of silica and soda ash.
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced): 7
5
2
› $550m value add (4% of current GDP) 0

› Up to 7,100 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 46 46

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

6 Flat glass production

Where we stand
Attract international player (e.g., Saint Gobain, AGC) to launch local production and export to
Africa & Europe, then expand into downstream products and possibly upstream into soda ash.
$1.5 bn
by 2050
Capex requirement
Intervention Description Timing Tasks
Low CO2

1. Assess potential for Support local silica suppliers (e.g., 0-6m › Assess glass industry demand.
local silica supply Hakahana Ind. & Groot Silica Mining) › Engage with local suppliers.
2.Target int’l players
to set up locally
Engage int’l glass players without
regional presence, e.g., AGC.
0-6m ›
›
Develop pitch deck.
Run international roadshow.
B
3.Assess feasibility of Conduct feasibility study on soda ash 0-6m › Conduct quantity survey.
soda ash production production at Trona (in Etosha NP). › Commission feasibility study.

A new growth agenda

4.Infrastructure Assess infra for glass plant location, 0-6m › Review port > site route.
quality assessment
5.Environmental
raw materials sites, & port, w/MoWT
Conduct EIA for prod. and dist. of 0-6m
›
›
Assess infrastructure gaps.
Formulate EIA ToRs. $550m
impact assessment glass products, incl. soda ash mfg. › Commission & conduct EIAs. by 2050
6.Attract expertise for Engage large players, e.g., Solvay re 6-18m › Map industry players.
soda ash production soda ash production from Trona.
Annual value add potential
› Develop pitch & roadshow..
7.Lock-in access to Ensure LNG access/capacity (i.e., 6-18m › Review existing infrastructure.
adequate gas supply pipeline and regasification centres). › Establish strategic gas reserve.
8.Support export Promote quality standards (e.g., ISO) 6-18m › Create report of EU standards.
quality standards
9.Adopt recycling
for target markets (e.g., CBAM in EU).
Set % target for used glass (cullet) in
›
›
Model their compliance policy.
Analyse glass recycling centres
Importance of enablers C
6-18m Energy intensive requires power &
targets prod. to cut emissions & energy cost. › Consult suppliers & set targets.
gas. Ports for international export.
10.Ensure availability Identify source of skilled local labour 6-18m › Lead technical training courses.
of skilled labour to meet needs for flat glass prod. › Partner with educational inst.

Delivering the blueprint

Water
11.Expand export Increase port handling capacity to 18m+ › Upgrade port facilities. Power
handling capacity allow production expansion & export. › Improve customs processing. Gas
12.Adopt localisation Consider min. % of locally-produced › Conduct supply chain analysis. Ports
18m+
mandates coated flat glass in domestic PV cells. › Draft local content legislation. Local raw materials
13.Promote transition Encourage move to a zero-carbon › Create zero-carbon subsidies. Local demand centres
18m+
to zero-carbon glass glass by replacing gas with gH2. › Build reliable gH2 supply chain.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 47 47

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

7 Synthetic fuel production

Where we stand
Use domestic bush biomass to produce biogenic CO2 feedstock and gH2 to produce synthetic
fuel for export to EU aviation market, scaling up from 2030 to supply EU mandates.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: High potential carbon-neutral fuel alternative Capex breakdown for typical e-fuel plant, $m
gH2 derivatives

› So-called “drop-in” synthetic fuels (biofuel or e-fuel) can decarbonise

transport sector without the need for fuel blending or new engines/infra.
› They are carbon neutral since they are manufactured using bio-bound or
captured CO2 that balances out the CO2 released when fuel is combusted. B
› E-fuel produced when gH2 used to convert CO2 to synthetic fuel. H2 plant
is the most expensive capex component in a typical e-fuel plant.

A new growth agenda

E-SAF projected demand and supply, mtpa
MARKET OUTLOOK: Booming EU SAF demand & emerging e-SAF supply gap
Demand Supply
› EU sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates to create market from 2025
(rising to 40mtpa by 2050). E-SAF fulfils mandates if produced with gH2.
› At present commercially unproven, but significant ongoing R&D. Can be
used for up to 50% blend with conventional jet fuel.
› EU biofuel market facing oversupply, but e-fuel market expected to see
increasing supply gap – reaching 6mtpa by 2050. 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: gH2 & biogenic CO2 supply to underpin industry Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Scope to produce e-SAF from 2030 to export to EU aviation customers. Direct Indirect Induced

› A bush biomass plant could supply biogenic CO2, while low-cost domestic

Delivering the blueprint

gH2 production establishes Namibia’s competitive advantage. 15
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced):
5
› $1.9bn value add (>15% of current GDP) 0 1
› Up to 15,500 jobs
2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 48 48

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

7 Synthetic fuel production

Where we stand
Set up JV between international SAF developer and existing domestic player (e.g., NAMCOR) to
produce first e-SAF based on gH2 and local biogenic CO2.
$20 bn
by 2050 (excluding biomass)
Capex requirement
gH2 derivatives

Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1. Attract pilot plant Engage potential candidates for pilot › Map industry players.
0-6m 6-18m
developer projects to test feasibility of SAF › Assess Africa invest interest.
production. › Formulate potential JVs. B
2.Encourage biomass Follow up on NamPower’s plan to 0-6m 6-18m › Commission feasibility study.
power w/CCS build 30MW biomass power plant › Assess compatibility w/SAF.

A new growth agenda

and CCS capabilities. › Evaluate grant support.
3.Assess infrastructure Assess infrastructure requirements
requirements with focus on Walvis Bay capacity to
6-18m
› Survey current infrastructure.
› Conduct feasibility study.
$1.9 bn
by 2050
handle additional SAF demand. › Analyse potential gaps.
Annual value add potential
4.Identify upstream/ Prioritise and select partners/players 18m+ › Input: gH2 proj. & NamPower
downstream partners for feedstock supply, e-SAF prod., oil › Prod.: Shell, Total, BP, Sasol
refineries and SAF traders. › Ref.: SAPREF, Natref/Sasolburg
5.Facilitate offtake Broker offtake agreement between › Map potential customers.
agreements major EU airlines and fuel producers
18m+
› Draft pitch book. Importance of enablers C
to de-risk early investments. › Run customer roadshow. Proximity to green hydrogen and
other major industries required.
6.Streamline Simplify and accelerate licensing/ › Implement one-stop shops.
18m+

Delivering the blueprint

permitting process permitting process to operate SAF › Provide government support. Water
plant (specifically retail/wholesale). › Expedite priority applications. Power
Gas
7.Develop law for Expedite legal framework on offtake 18m+ › Research similar laws. Ports
offtake specs specifications (including hydrogen › Formulate and draft policy. Local raw materials
standards). › Publish clear offtake guidelines. Local demand centres

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 49 49

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
WHAT

8 Green hot briquetted iron (HBI) production

Where we stand
Produce green HBI/DRI at Lüderitz, using green hydrogen, to export to EU markets. Then
grow to serve potential regional ‘green steel’ customers (e.g., South Africa).

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW: gH2 to produce HBI can slash steel CO2 emissions Green steel production cost, gH2 DRI, $/t
gH2 derivatives

› Green hot briquetted iron is a low-carbon iron produced by using gH2 to

reduce high-grade iron ore pellets to Direct Reduction Iron (DRI).
› When green HBI used in steel-making, it can cut CO2 emissions by 85-95%
- thereby earning the label of “green steel”. B
› gH2 accounts for ~50% of DRI costs (and 35% of green steel cost),
Iron Green
meaning that low-cost renewable energy is key to economics. ore
DRI
steel

A new growth agenda

Global low-carbon steel demand forecast, mt
MARKET OUTLOOK: Green steel to grow exponentially & enter mainstream
X% % of total steel 475
› Green steel demand to grow at least eight-fold to 2040, and transition from
niche product (3% of total steel) to mainstream (>20% of total steel).
15%pa
› Growth motivated by government regulations and corporate commitments 200

to decarbonise, particularly in transport and construction sectors. 60

100

› China, India, and S.Africa to emerge as major green steel producers, while
green price premium anticipated in Europe due to growing undersupply. 2025 2027 2030 2040
3% 4% 8% 21%
C
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITY: Move rapidly to exploit gH2 cost advantage Jobs, ‘000s FTE
› Namibia can produce and export green HBI to Europe due to low-cost gH2,, Direct Indirect Induced

which is expected to offset other cost disadvantages.

Delivering the blueprint

› But…window of opportunity risks closing if delayed, as Europe gH2 costs
decline (in part due to mooted gH2 pipelines from Middle East/N.Africa).
8
› Potential 2050 industry scale (including indirect and induced): 4
0.3 1.3
› $1.2bn value add (10% of current GDP)
› Up to 7,900 jobs 2025 2030 2040 2050

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 50 50

 A
ANNEXE 2 – CATALOGUE OF INVESTABLE INDUSTRIES
HOW

8 Green hot briquetted iron (HBI) production

Where we stand
Incubate local player and engage miners (e.g., Rio Tinto, Glencore) and traders (e.g., Cargill, AA
Marketing) to secure supply, and strike offtake agmts for green HBI/DRI with int’l steel players.
$6 bn
by 2050
Capex requirement
gH2 derivatives

Intervention Description Timing Tasks

1. Facilitate integrated Broker JV of green HBI producers 0-6m › Map potential stakeholders.
Joint Venture (Lodestone/HyIron), HBI off-takers › Host multi-stakeholder forum.
(AA/Marubeni), & iron miners (RT etc) › Streamline JV permit approval. B
2.Support EPC/EPCM Guide assessment of EPC/EPCM 0-6m › Evaluate DRI build capabilities.
partnerships partnership between HBI players & › Negotiate EPC/EPCM contract,

A new growth agenda

DRI tech (Midrex & EnergIron/HYL). › Broker partnership.
3.Evaluate impact of
local sourcing regs
Evaluate impact of natural resource
legislation (esp. iron ore) on HBI
0-6m › Analyse current resource laws. $1.2 bn
› Consult with industry players. by 2050
players (i.e., local vs. int’l sourcing). › Report legislative findings.
Annual value add potential
4.Develop necessary Collaborate with higher education 0-6m › Promote demand for workers.
local skills institutions to develop local talent for › Lead technical training courses.
HBI and/or attract regional talent. › Partner with educational inst.
5.Showcase Namibia
green HBI ambition
Showcase Namibia’s attractiveness
and ambition towards green HBI
6-18m › Draft HBI strategy paper.
› Promote refining potential.
Importance of enablers C
production in international forums. › Host industry forum. Large power need – and proximity
to port if no local iron supply.
6.Support export Communicate and/or support for 6-18m › Detail CBAM guide to suppliers.

Delivering the blueprint

quality standards application of CBAM trade Water
› Provide compliance incentives.
Power
requirements for HBI production. › Monitor to ensure compliance.
Gas
7.Negotiate steel Consider steel trade agreements with 6-18m › Evaluate potential markets. Ports
trade agreements potential markets (incl. EU, S.Africa, & › Create pitch deck for HBI. Local raw materials
US) to minimise green HBI tariffs. Local demand centres
› Contact relevant trade minister

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 51 51

 A spatial diagnosis of
Annexe 3
Namibia and its economy

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

 1 Spatial analysis

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Namibia
overview
Namibia has long operated a
decentralised form of governance There are 51 recognised
traditional authorities,
across three levels. primarily covering the northern
communal regions.

The national government is situated in the nation’s

capital city, Windhoek. Below this are 14 regional The capital and main
commercial centre, Windhoek,
administrative councils, and 121 local constituencies. sits at 1,600m.s.l. in the
country’s Central Plateau.
Although formally adopted in policy in 1997, plans
for decentralisation in Namibia date prior to
independence in a 1988 blueprint.

Coastal towns of Swakopmund

Whilst in the top ten for GDP per capita in Sub-
and Walvis Bay are important
Saharan Africa, Namibia ranks as one of the world’s locations for tourism and
most unequal countries. This reflects territorial trade.
segregation and resource misallocation during the
colonial period.

There is a prominent north-south divide. The north is

more densely populated and reliant on subsistence
farming, compared to the more sparsely populated
south with more commercial activity.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 54 54

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Population
centres
Namibia’s population is concentrated in
the capital city of Windhoek and the The densely-inhabited Oshana
region is a magnet for rapid
traditionally owned lands of the far north. urbanisation.

Owing to its small population and sizeable land

mass, Namibia ranks as the 2nd least densely Windhoek is home to almost
populated country in the world. Windhoek is the all national government
bodies, enterprises,
dominant urban area, over five times bigger than the
educational institutions.
second largest town, Rundu.

Outside of Windhoek, the majority of Namibians

(around half the population) reside in the far north
Walvis Bay is Namibia’s third
of Namibia in a mix of rural and urban areas. largest town and at the
moment, is home to the only
Other key towns support trade and mining deep-sea harbour.
operations in Namibia. Walvis Bay’s port is pivotal to
the wider region connecting neighbouring
landlocked countries to the world.

Beyond this, small settlements are scattered

throughout the rest of the country, pointing to the
country’s overall spareness.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 55 55

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Population
growth
Internal migration from the north is
projected to drive population growth Just between 2010 and 2011,
Caprivi region lost around
in the Khomas and Erongo regions. 6% of its population to other
regions

Population growth naturally increases demand for

space and resources. Rapid population growth can Omusati and Omaheke are
stifle sustainable and inclusive development, affecting facing static population
growth over the next two
those living in poverty and the environment.
decades.

In contrast to the presently densely populated north,

the wealthier Khomas and Erongo regions are
expected to experience over 100% population growth
Projected population growth is
between 2011 and 2041. highest in both numerical and
percentage terms in Erongo
Omusati is currently the second most populous region and Khomas.
but is expected to experience little to no population
growth during this period, as people seek economic
opportunities elsewhere.

This migration pattern is not new: by 2010, over 40% of

those residing in Khomas and Erongo were born
elsewhere, while 1 in 6 persons born in the densely
populated northern regions of Ohangwena and
Omusati were already residing elsewhere.

Source: NSA Population Projections 2011-2041

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 56 56

Client | Assignment
 A
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Age

Where we stand
distribution
Namibia has a relatively young
population with significant levels of Large rural populations in
Namibia tend to have a young
youth unemployment. mean age, such as Kavango,
Ohangwena, and Osmusati.

Namibia has a young population with the mean age

around 22 years old, albeit this is above average in Sub- Kunene has the highest youth
B
Saharan Africa. The mean age in the more urban wealthy unemployment (15 to 34) at
around 53%.
regions tends to be higher with the working age

A new growth agenda

populations drawn to these places.

The age dependency ratio in Namibia – the number of

elderly (<15 and 65>) relative to the working population –
Wealthier regions of Erongo
sits at 67%. This is considerably higher than other upper and Khomas have a relatively
middle-income countries, but lower than the average of high average age (26 and 25
sub-Saharan Africa. years old respectively).

Around 90% of the age dependent group are below 15

years of age (around 900,000). Creating decent job
opportunities and education that matches the job market C
is necessary to support the large number of youths.

Youth unemployment is reported as being very high at

Delivering the blueprint

40%, but this is indicative of Namibia’s strong reporting
standards, particularly when comparing this to the sub-
Saharan average of 15%, which may be higher in reality.

Source: NSA Labour Force Survey 2018; World Bank 2022

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 57 57

 A
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Income

Where we stand
sources
Primary sources of income differ
significantly – farming dominates the Kavango and large swathes of
the northern communal
north and employment elsewhere. regions have subsistence
farming as the main source of
income.

Sources of income and income distribution across a

country reflect levels of inequality and socio-economic Whilst transfers are the main
B
development, regional infrastructure, and population source of income around
Omusati and Oshana,
activities.

A new growth agenda

subsistence farming still
constitutes a meaningful
Of Namibia’s 14 regions, ten report salaries as the main proportion of income.
source of income. The dependency on salaries largely
aligns with the wealthier and more commercial regions in
68% of Khomas households
Namibia. have salaries as the main
source of income, reflecting a
The regions where subsistence farming is the main source more commercial orientation.
of income are typically found in the northern communal
regions. Transfers (pensions, remittance, retirement fund,
orphan’s grant, disability grant), as a primary source of
income are mainly in the central northern region. C
The dualistic nature of the Namibian economy is partially
expressed in the map, with most of the country’s wealth

Delivering the blueprint

dependent on capital-intensive industry in the south,
contrasting the traditional subsistence farming sector.

Source: NSA Labour Force Survey 2018

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 58 58

 A
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Poverty analysis #1:

Where we stand
monetary poverty
Monetary based poverty levels have
fallen but are generally still higher than Kavango East has the highest
percentage of monetary poor
other middle-income countries. individuals at 42%.

A monetary poverty analysis is a cost-of-basic-needs

approach. It considers as poor the population that Second highest monetary
B
cannot consume more than N$520 per month on poverty levels are in Kunene at
40%.
basic needs.

A new growth agenda

Since independence, strong economic growth has
significantly reduced poverty levels. poverty remains
high than countries with similar income levels to
The Khomas and Erongo
Namibia, however, which points to significant income regions have the lowest levels
disparity. of monetary poverty, pointing
to the wealth of these regions.
As shown in the RHS map, high economic disparities
are manifested in a north south divide. In particular,
the highest levels of monetary poverty are
concentrated in Kavango East (42%), Kunene (38%), C
and Omaheke (34%). At 4.7%, the Khomas region, has
the lowest level of monetary poverty

Delivering the blueprint

Source: NSA Multidimensional Poverty Index 2021

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 59 59

ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Poverty analysis #2:

multidimensional poverty
National income has increased
significantly, but high levels of
poverty persist throughout the
economy.

According to the Namibian multidimensional poverty index,

43% of the population live in poverty (for reference, the There is a general north-south
World Bank estimates the global multidimensional poverty divide. With higher levels of
multidimensional poverty in
line at 27% of the global population).
the north.

While Namibia ranks 112th in terms of GDP per capita, it

ranks as 139th in terms of Human Development Index. As a
result, it is one of the few upper-middle-income countries
Erongo has the lowest level of
not classed with “high” levels of development by the UN. poverty in Namibia. This is
mainly driven by investment in
High multidimensional poverty is driven by low Walvis Bay.
performance in health, education, and service access. For
example, 68% percent of the population does not have
access to standard sanitation. 25% children under 5 years
old are stunted—four times more than the average of upper
middle-income counties.

In sum, Namibia has prioritised social spending, which has

helped reduce monetary poverty from 37.5% to 17.4%
(2004 to 2016). This has generally improved service access
but with relatively poor outcomes.

Source: NSA Multidimensional Poverty Index 2021

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 60 60

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Income
inequality
Despite an extended period of income
growth, Namibia remains one of the world’s
Access and quality services
most unequal countries. (telecoms, electricity, water,
education and health) are worst
across the Kavango regions.
Extreme inequality levels characterise socio-economic
conditions in Namibia, a strong legacy from historical colonial
segregation. Namibia’s Gini coefficient (a measure of income
inequality, from 0 to 100) is 59.1, second highest only to South An evident north-south divide,
Africa. with better access to and
quality of basic service in the
southern half of the country.
Current inequality is particularly poignant against a backdrop of
strong economic growth since independence. For example,
land ownership remains highly concentrated, with 4,000
farmers owning approximately 50% of total agricultural land
Concentration of population
and 70% of commercial farmland. and associated urban hubs has
underpinned greater
Entrenched income inequality results in inequality of investment in services in
opportunities, hindering human capital and poverty reduction, Erongo and Khomas
and further driving market segmentation.

In addition to income and land ownership, geographical

disparities are also evident. There is a clear north-south and
rural-urban divide. While Windhoek is a modern sophisticated
city, areas with low population density -where the cost of public
services delivery is disproportionally high- are lagging.

Inequality measure reflects Ergo assessment

of access and quality of public services by
region – encompassing life expectancy;
Source: Namibia Labour Force Survey, 2018 literacy; access to internet, electricity, water
and shelter.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 61 61

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Land
ownership
Historical divisions still determine land
ownership with traditional authority The veterinary cordon fence
divides the country and is used
dominating the north. to manage foot-and-mouth
disease in livestock.

Most of northern Namibia is under traditional authority, while

privately controlled land largely covers the rest of the Otjozondjupa has the greatest
country. The entire Namibian coastline, including the Namib concentration of foreign
owned farms in the country.
desert, is owned by the central government.

Of the freehold agricultural land, 70% is owned by previously

advantaged Namibians – those socially, economically or
educationally advantaged by discriminatory laws or practices
Namib Desert is largely
in the past – contrasting to 16% owned by previously government owned, comprising
disadvantaged Namibians. 67% of state-owned land.

Since independence there has been continual pressure for

the redistribution of commercial farmland. The National
Resettlement programme has redistributed 3 million
hectares benefiting households predominantly in the Hardap,
Khomas, Omaheke, and Otjozondjupa regions.

The historic backdrop partially defines land use and

ownership that remains distinctively divided by the
veterinary cordon fence. This splits Namibian agriculture into
two types, subsistence and commercial.

Source: NSA Namibia Land Statistics, 2018

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 62 62

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Natural
regions
A vast country relative to its
population, Namibia can be classified Caprivi Strip is an extremely
flat plain running eastward to
into five distinct natural regions. the Zambezi River.

The Central Plateau runs north to south, reaching an altitude

of 2000 metres with Windhoek located in the centre. It is The Central Plateau is central
home to the majority of population settlements and to economic activity and
agriculture in Namibia.
commercial industry.

The Namib desert runs along the Atlantic coast and is largely
uninhabitable. The northern part mainly consists of gravel
plains whereas the central part is known for its sand dunes.
The low-lying Namib desert
stretches 1,600km along the
The Great Escarpment separates the Central Plateau with the Atlantic coast.
coastal Namib. It can be described as a 1000-metre-high
mountain range, stretching from the north to the south of
Namibia, but is not continuous.

The Kalahari region is to the east of the Central Plateau. After

good rainfalls, it is well vegetated and home to an abundance
of wildlife. It forms part of the Kalahari Basin, stretching over
seven countries

The Kavango-Caprivi area is sub-tropical and forms a

separate region in the otherwise arid Namibia. Due to the
humid climate wildlife is abundant and many parts of the
region have been declared national parks.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 63 63

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Aridity
analysis
Virtually all of Namibia is considered
hyper arid, arid, or semi-arid. This The classification of a region
moves from semi-arid to arid
condition constraints farming potential. where evaporation exceeds
rainfall.

Namibia is a severely dry country, with its levels of aridity

ranked second only to the Sahara desert, and most of the Pelican Point in Namibia is
country classified as at least arid. considered one of the most
arid places on earth with
around 8mm rainfall per year.
Aridity relates to both precipitation and
evapotranspiration (evaporation plus transpiration). The
low precipitation and high evaporation levels in Namibia
determine its extreme aridity.
The Namib desert is
characterised as hyper arid,
Evaporation is at least five times greater than average with low precipitation and high
precipitation. A natural desert, Namibia is already evaporation levels.
considered water scarce and increasing levels of aridity
are a strategic challenge to the economy looking into the
future.

Rising temperatures are projected to transition parts of

Namibia’s arid state into hyper arid. This threatens the
agriculture sector with additional deficits in soil moisture
and increased droughts frequency.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 64 64

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Desertification

High propensity to increased desertification,

bringing with it further water shortages and In communal areas of Namibia,
overstocking and overgrazing
agricultural challenges. has led to loss of ground cover
and land productivity.

Most of the Namibia’s population are located

throughout the Central Plateau and northern regions, Poorer communities in the
sandwiched by the Namib desert on the coast and the north tend to rely on natural
resources which can lead to
Kalahari to the east.
unsustainable use of land.

Desertification emerges as degraded land spreads and

merges together. This is primarily caused by
unsustainable land and agricultural practices. Namibia’s
26 million hectares of land per
climate coupled with population growth and year are reported to be affected
urbanisation makes it particularly susceptible to by bush encroachment.
increased desertification.

Increased desertification will lead to water challenges

and impact the agricultural industry. The Namibian
Government has launched an action plan to combat
Desertification, Land Degradation and Droughts –
viewing it as a key threat to long term development of
the country.

Source: ME&T Third Action Programme to Combat Desertification, 2014

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 65 65

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Precipitation

Namibia is extremely dry with little

rainfall through the year, making water The Kavango region averages
rainfall of 550mm to 600mm
scarcity prevalent. per year, the highest in the
country.

Rainfall increases from west to east, although precipitation

is low throughout the country. Total average rains average Yearly rainfall in the north-
to 278mm. Limited precipitations contribute to high levels central part of the Central
Plateau increases to around 20
of aridity.
inches from 10 inches in the
Southern and Western parts.
There is variability, however. The dry western Namib Desert
running along the Atlantic coast presents the greatest
contrast with the sub-tropical Kavango-Caprivi Region in
Precipitation averages fall as
the northeast that experiences around 600mm of rainfall low as 50mm in the southwest
per year. and coastal areas.

Areas with relatively higher levels of precipitation are more

capable to support economic activity including; agriculture
(arable and livestock), tourism and urban commercial
centres.

More generally, limited rainfall challenges traditional

development models beyond agricultur including
constrained access to water for industry and urbanisation.

Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, World Bank

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 66 66

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Water
catchments
Perennial rivers only flow along the
northern and southern borders, making
transboundary co-operation crucial.

Namibia shares all its perennial rivers with neighbouring

countries, whereas the internal rivers mainly run dry as a Zambezi river forms the
result of the country’s high aridity. The network of border between Zambia and
Namibia at the Caprivi strip.
internal rivers flow for brief periods after rainfall.

The Orange River is shared with South Africa at the

southern border, whilst the Kavango and Zambezi rivers
are shared with Angola, Zambia, and Botswana in the
Namibia is part of the Orange-
north. Senqu River Commission with
South Africa, Botswana, and
Water scarcity remains a prevalent issue and water Zimbabwe.
management is therefore an important factor for social
well-being and economic development.

The reliance on unnatural and non-sustainable water

sources makes efficiency crucial. There is an urgency to
develop new and innovative infrastructure to meet the
growing water demands.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 67 67

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Water
availability
With limited rainfall, Namibia is
dependent on groundwater, making An irrigation system is being
developed along the ‘maize
water transportation a key challenge. triangle’ as part of the
government’s Green Scheme
Project.

Demand for water is expected to increase by over 30%

by 2030. Three key sources of water exist in Namibia, Neckartal Dam is the largest in
border rivers, dams, and aquifers (groundwater). High the country, primarily
supporting the agricultural
evaporation makes water availability highly dependent
industry.
on underground aquifers, especially during droughts.

The challenge of water availability is compounded by

accessibility. For example, the Ohangwena II aquifer is
Construction of the Noordoewer
estimated to contain 5 billion m3 of drinking water. Dam on the Oranje for large-
However, intra-regional water transportation is not scale irrigation agriculture in
technically or politically straightforward. Namibia (2018 – 2024).

Efficient national water management will therefore

become critical to future economic growth and
development.

Source: Creating Resilient and Inclusive Markets, IFC, 2022

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 68 68

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Temperature

Namibia is characterised by hot and dry

climatic conditions, with considerable The Caprivi Strip reaches
maximum temperatures of 35
differences across regions. Celsius during summer.

Namibia is generally hot with mean annual temperatures

ranging from 14C to 24C, however maximum Cooled by the Benguela
temperatures are limited by the overall elevation of the current, temperatures reach
below 16 Celsius in the
country.
southern coast.

Temperatures are highest in the northern regions, whereas

the southwest coastal region is typically cooled by the
Benguela current that bring cold air to the western shores.
Extreme temperature
variations occur in the Kalahari
Wide temperature ranges characterise the Central Plateau with temperatures sometimes
and the Kalahari, with daily temperature ranges of up to dropping below freezing point
30C. Average temperatures range from 30C in the at night.
summer to 10C in the winter.

While the trend remains a concern for the future, high

temperature is not a primary obstacle to development by
comparison to aridity and water availability,.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 69 69

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Solar
radiation
Namibia has vast untapped solar
energy that has transformative The Ruacana Power Station is
frequently affected by droughts
potential for the energy system. reducing operational levels.

Solar radiation is a pivotal source for renewable energy

development, moving away from traditional energy Outapi Solar PV Farm is located
sources and promoting a sustainable future. in the Omusati region producing
9,425 MWh per year and
benefiting 3,000 households.
Solar radiation levels across Namibia reach nearly 3,000-
Kilowatt hours per m2 over large areas. The solar potential
in Namibia is one of the highest in the world, with the
highest levels stretching down the west of the country.
Tsau ǁKhaeb National Park has
been selected to host Namibia’s
Namibia’s solar potential offers long-term energy security first green hydrogen
that can reverse the present reliance on energy imports development,
and increase energy exports, positioning Namibia as a key
energy player in Africa.

The solar power potential further creates green hydrogen

generation possibilities. This has received considerable
backing by the Namibian government, adopting several
committees to support development of hydrogen sites
across the country.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 70 70

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Wind
speed
Significant wind speeds presents
opportunities for renewable wind
energy development.

A combination of solar and wind potential makes

Namibia well positioned for renewable energy Around 30,000 wind water
generation. pumps are installed around the
country, the second most in
Africa.
Significant areas of Namibia have wind speeds above
5m/s, the threshold for wind turbines to be
economically viable. Several areas, particularly the
southwest of the country, having an annual average of
An annual electricity yield of
7m/s, considered excellent for wind power generation. around 2,800 MWh per
installed MW of wind power
The highest wind speed occurs around the town of can be expected in Lüderitz.
Lüderitz and southwards, reaching speeds of 13m/s.
The majority of the 1500km coastline is well positioned
for wind energy development.

The development of wind as a source of renewable

energy is currently being promoted by the government
with the Diaz Wind Farm in Lüderitz being a key
project.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 71 71

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Soils

A wide variation of soil types largely

determines agricultural land use across 10 percent of the northern land
surface support approximately
the country. 50 percent of the population.

Soils are a crucial factor in determining the farming

potential of land. Namibia has a diverse range of soils Crop cultivation in Namibia is
across its varying landscape that largely determine concentrated primarily in the
northern communal areas. Mainly
agricultural use of land – but soil fertility is generally low.
a form of subsistence agriculture
that risks desertification.
Inherently poor soil quality combined with the country’s
climate, aridity and low precipitation, limits Namibia’s
suitability for crop cultivation.
The small occurrence of high
soil suitability for crop
The majority of Namibia is covered by arenosols in the cultivation is throughout the
north and east, and leptosols in the centre and northwest. Central Plateau region
Both soils are unattractive for agriculture due to low
water-holding capacities.

However, pockets of camibisols and luvisols are

sporadically found across the country and used for
agricultural land due to high mineral content.

In the far southwest diamond mining region Alluvium soil is

predominant, with diamonds recovered from deposits of
sand, gravel and clay.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 72 72

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Biomes

Namibia consists of five biomes but is

dominated by the Savanna with The broad savanna biome is
broken down into the Acacia
grassland and dispersed trees. Savanna and the Broad-leafed
Savanna with the latter
experiencing more rainfall.

Biomes are large areas characterised by their

vegetation, soil, climate, and wildlife. There are five key Namibia’s desert biome is
distinctive biomes in Namibia, with the savanna the home to ephemeral rivers,
sand dunes and gravel plains.
predominant biome.

The savanna covering the northeast half of the country

is a grassy woodland with a scattered covering of trees.
The biome supports a high concentration of species and
Nama-Karoo biome has a harsh
contains the catchments of most ephemeral rivers in the climate dominated by dwarf
country. shrubs and grass species.

The desert biome along the coast is characterised by

low rainfall and sparse vegetation, mainly consisting of
annual grasses and dwarf shrubs.

The Karoo biomes experience only a slight increase in

rainfall compared to the desert, and experiences large
temperature variations. The succulent karoo is still
classed as a biodiversity hotspot.

The Etosha salt pan is found in the north of the country.

Due to its saline nature, it is unable to support much life.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 73 73

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Land use
and land cover
The land in is primarily covered by
shrubland, with cropland and some 50% of rural communities in
the Caprivi region rely on wild
forests concentrated in the north. foods for their sustenance.

Land cover in Namibia largely consists of shrubland, with

sparse vegetation covering the western coast and south. The northern communal regions
The north has greater variation, with forests, woodland are characterised by low
agricultural productivity and
and cropland.
vulnerability to climatic variability.

Although the country has limited arable land, a large

proportion of the population are dependent on
agriculture (two-thirds of agriculture consists of
Increasing land degradation is
livestock farming, which is better suited to the natural occurring as result of
conditions). unsustainable agricultural
practises and cattle numbers
Agriculture is divided between commercial farming and exceeding carrying capacity.
subsistence farming in the populous north. The main
crops are millet, sorghum, corn, and peanuts.

Thanks to the existing forest cover, the rural

communities in the Kavango-Caprivi region rely on wild
foods for their sustenance. The existing forests are also
beneficial for soil stabilisation.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 74 74

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Environmentally
sensitive areas
Namibia’s coastal region dominates
natural and environmentally sensitive Namibia's Community Based
Natural Resource Management
areas. Programme tracks the linkage
between biodiversity and
poverty alleviation.

The environmental areas of Namibia are crucial for wildlife

management and tourism. Virtually all the dry western Namibia has 20 state run
coast is under a form of environmental management. protected areas covering
around 17% of the country’s
land surface.
The coastal stretch is also home to the country’s only
World Heritage Site, The Namib Sand Sea. The most
populous regions fall outside of environmental protection.
There are few considerable settlements in the western
The national parks in Namibia
coast, whilst the largest population centres are not in are considered the bedrock of
environmental sensitive areas. the country’s tourism industry,
promoting growth in rural areas.
Communal conservation is a unique method of
environmental management. Located primarily in the
northern regions, local communities are empowered to
manage and conserve natural resources within their local
context. This is of growing importance to the tourism
sector.

There is some overlap between solar potential along the

western coast and environmentally sensitive areas, which
will demand competent environmental management.

Source: GIZ

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 75 75

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Transport
infrastructure
A well-connected transport network
that provides pivotal coastal access to Walvis Bay Port receives
approximately 3,000 vessel calls
landlocked neighbouring countries. each year and handling about 5
million tonnes of cargo.

Namibia has a well-established road network connecting most

towns and communities. The road infrastructure is also pivotal The Trans-Kalahari Highway is
in connecting Namibia with its neighbouring countries, with a key connecting route into the
industrial heart of South Africa.
the Caprivi Highway connecting the landlocked countries of
Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to Walvis Bay.

The Walvis Bay Corridors comprise four corridors connecting

nearby countries with Walvis Bay and Lüderitz ports, providing
The Port of Lüderitz is serviced
trade routes to Europe and North America. Namibia’s by rail and road inland to
development is well supported by its coastal location and Seeheim and Keetmanshoop
infrastructure.

Walvis Bay is an important logistical port, providing facilities

for the import and export of cargo for Namibia and the
southern African region. Additionally, Lüderitz serves mining
operations although it is too shallow to support many modern
ships.

There are regular flights between Namibia and other Sub-

Saharan countries. Hosea Kutako International Airport also
provides direct flights to Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.
Additionally, a rail network, running north to south, connects
the ports to the rest of the country.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 76 76

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Access to
energy
Access to energy remains a constraint,
with the populous northern regions The densely population northern
regions have limited access to
having limited access. electricity, hindering development.

Whilst some key population settlements have strong

access to energy, access remains a prevalent challenge Ruacana Power Station is a key
and key constraint to development. Access to electricity source of energy in Namibia.
(% of population) was reported at 56% in 2020.

Sparse, low population density make electrification

difficult, with only 35% of the rural population having
access to electricity. The promotion of off-grid,
The central region of Namibia
renewable solutions is a key development objective being is well-served with key
undertaken by donors and governments. electrical infrastructure..

Namibia’s energy is driven by a mixture of sources, from

hydropower at the Ruacana Power Station, to imported
energy in the form of thermal (mainly coal) and solar
power. The present combination of energy sources is a
challenge to Namibia’s energy security.

Namibia has made enormous progress to attract

independent power producers, opening the electricity
market to domestic and international investors.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 77 77

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Access to
telecommunications
Namibia’s telecommunication
infrastructure development is not 7 out of 14 regions have 4G
coverage below a targeted
supported by affordable pricing. 80%.

Telecommunications coverage is far reaching across most

of the Namibian population, but this is not matched by The Kunene region has the
digital technology adoption by the population. lowest 4G coverage with
around 41%.
While urban areas are well serviced with modern 4G
technology, rural communities are limited to 3G and even
2G in places. This further highlights the urban-rural divide
within the country.
4G coverage is most prevalent
in the capital and commercial
Compared to other African countries the centre Windhoek.
telecommunications market is well-developed, but costs
remain high with limited competition, reflecting a lack of
private economic diversity.

Among 100 countries in the inclusive internet index,

Namibia ranks 89th in terms of affordability (cost of access
relative to income). This is an indication of Namibia’s costly
telecommunication, constraining adoption and the
associated benefits of telecommunication use.

Source: World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic 2021

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 78 78

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Access to
water
Urban regions have adequate access
to water, but disparities remain with 36% of households in Kunene
do not have access to
rural regions. improved drinking water.

Namibia’s extreme aridity makes access to water a

significant concern for the country. Although Namibia The Erongo Desalination Plant
has made strides with clean water largely accessible, provider 12.7 million cubic
metres of fresh water in 2021.
disparities with rural regions remain.

While the wealthier Khomas region has near universal

access to clean water, poorer regions such as Kunene
and Kavango West have little over 50% access.
Research into innovative
technologies for reuse of
Namibian’s multidimensional poverty index report wastewater are being
highlighted that only 0.5% of the urban population are undertaken in Swakopmund,
unable to access to drinking water. This contrasts to 21% Walvis Bay, and Windhoek.

of the population in rural areas.

The sparsity of the Namibian population exacerbates

the urban rural disparities in water accessibility. In
particular the distance between water sources and rural
settlements requires costly infrastructure investment for
adequate supply.

Source: IFC

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 79 79

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Access to sanitation
facilities
Lack of sanitation facilities reflects
poverty levels and reinforces the north- Ohangwena has the highest
reported rate of no toilet
south divide. facility – 80% of households.

Compared to the efforts made to improve access to safe

water, Namibia lags in the provision of adequate sanitation. Khomas has the highest count
For example, the UN has declared a "sanitation crisis" in the of private flush connected to
main sewer toilet system at
country.
48.6% of households.

Overall, it is reported that 49% of households in Namibia

have no toilet facility, limiting the promotion of public
health and the prevention of the spread of disease.
The bucket toilet system is
most common in Hardap
298 schools have no toilet facilities, while over 50% of child region at 6.2%.
deaths are related to lack of water, sanitation, or hygiene.

Lack of toilet facilities is more prevalent across the northern

regions of the country, aligning closely with poverty levels.
Rural regions lack toilet facilities with three out of four
households having no facility.

Flushing toilets are more common in urban areas, with 69%

of urban households having a form of flush facility. The
relatively wealthy Erongo and Khomas regions, have near
universal access to toilet facilities.

Source: IFC

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 80 80

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Access to
health
High quality and accessible healthcare in
urban areas, but challenges remain with Like a lot of services in
Namibia, there is a
access in rural areas. concentration of health
facilities in the populous north.

Namibia has 343 hospitals and clinics, as well as 1,150

smaller service points. Healthcare facilities in the country Oshana has the lowest
are sophisticated but not always affordable to the poorer population rate unable to
access clinics/hospitals 1% (20-
part of the population.
km distance or more than 30
minutes away).
More than 70% of the population live within six miles of a
health facility, and facilities are concentrated in key cities
and towns. Certain services are only available from
Kunene has the highest
private medical centres, putting them out of reach for the population unable to access
majority of Namibia's citizens. clinics/hospitals 31% (20-km
distance or more than 30
Disparity remains between urban and rural regions. While minutes away).

90% of urban households are within six miles to health

facilities, the figure falls to only 56% of households in rural
areas. Healthcare access remains a development
constraint that requires further government action.

Further distinctions are evident due to the high-income

inequality in Namibia. 18% of the population are serviced
by private healthcare, contrasting to 82% served by
public healthcare.

Source: GIZ

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 81 81

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Primary
education
Access to primary education is widely
available, with some exceptions in The presence of primary
education coincides with
rural regions. population density.

Education has received considerable government

backing since independence. Namibia has a relatively Omusati has the highest
strong education system, with free and compulsory number of primary schools in
Namibia – around 140.
primary education starting at the age of six.

A recent government programme has aimed to give

children (aged 5 to 6) from poor backgrounds access to
pre-primary education, indicative of strong government
Omaheke has the lowest
action. number of primary schools in
Namibia – around 30.
Schools’ presence coincides with the population density,
with most primary schools in the north. Primary
education is near universal, with 97% attendance,
resulting in one of highest literacy rates in sub-Saharan
Africa (91.5%).

Not surprisingly, however, primary education enrolment

is higher in urban areas than rural. The poorer northern
regions experience the lowest performers, whilst the
highest performers are in the wealthier regions of
Khomas and Erongo.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 82 82

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Secondary
education
Strong access to secondary school, but
educational outcomes remain insufficient and Employment to population
ratio of those with secondary
a mismatch with the labour market. education is around 54%.

As with primary education, secondary education has

received high backing from the Namibian government. Around 50% of the employed
Secondary enrolment has risen over the decades and population have completed
secondary education.
there have been vast reductions in illiteracy in the
working population.

There are persistent challenges around learning

outcomes, related to early drop out rates and poor
The highest number of private
teaching standards. These challenges are again more schools are found in the
prevalent in rural areas. Khomas region.

The facility standards are also a challenge to education in

Namibia, especially in disadvantaged regions. For
example, electrification of schools in the Kavango and
Oshikoto regions lag significantly.

Secondary education currently offers limited avenues to

achieve technical education, which is limiting
employability for those not progress to further education.

Source: World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic 2021

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 83 83

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Tertiary
education
Enrolment in tertiary education is
increasing, but taught skills poorly match The University of Namibia has 12
campuses spread across the
the economy’s needs. country, including one in Rundu.

Namibia has two general public universities and one

private university, all based in Windhoek with regional The University of Namibia has
campuses. In addition, Technical and Vocational an enrolment of around 21,000
with its main campus located
Education and Training (TVET) is characterised by several
in the capital Windhoek.
specialised institutions, a mix of public and private
institutions.

Tertiary education is limited but growing consistently.

Green Hydrogen Research
Between 2012 and 2016 the number enrolled into tertiary Institutes largely correspond
education increased by 30%, reaching an enrolment rate with regions poised for
equivalent to South Africa (21%). renewable energy development.

However, the majority of graduates transition into the

public sector, which reflects Namibia’s public sector
dominance.

Source: World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic 2021

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 84 84

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS
5
Spatial diagnostic 1

To understand development
opportunities and constraints, Namibia
can be categorised into 5 distinct zones.

Comparatively lush north

1 Communal lands reliant on substance agriculture but
suffering from poor public service delivery.
4
Sparse central and southern regions
2 South of the Veterinary Cordon Fence, land is privately owned
and predominately used for livestock grazing.
2
Arid coastal strip
3 Barren and arid Atlantic coastline with little economic activity,
3
although with high wind and solar potential – especially in the south.

Central economic corridor

4 Main economic hubs of Windhoek and Walvis Bay, with most
industry, services and facilities for the import and export of goods.
6

Densely populated northern strip

5 Half of Namibia’s population lives on 1/6th of the land spanning
Omusati, Oshana, Ohangwena, Oshikoto, and Kavango West & East.

Central logistical arteries

6 Trans-African highways traverse the country, connecting Namibia
and its landlocked neighbours to international markets.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 85 85

Client | Assignment
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Emerging insights
In conclusion, the baseline paints a clear spatial picture of Namibia today. Key circumstances across multiple dimensions of
analysis both define development constraints and shape economic opportunities.

DIMENSION KEY TAKEAWAY

At only 3m, Namibia’s population is small and sparsely distributed. There are only a handful of major towns, led by
Demographic
Windhoek. The recent rapid urbanisation, which has been faster than Namibia’s peers, is set to continue.

Namibia is one of Africa’s few upper-middle income countries – but growth has stagnated, and poverty remains
Living standards
significant. Inequality is very high and heavily constrains living standards outside of urban centres.

Landscapes are defined by extreme aridity and low precipitation. The Great Escarpment splits the country into a barren
Physical analysis
coastal strip and more elevated Central Plateau where the vast majority of the population live and work.

Namibia has low soil fertility throughout, with most of the country poorly suited for high-productivity agriculture. Land
Biophysical analysis
cover patterns match topography – with shrubland savanna covering the north and east of the country.

In line with relatively high incomes, Namibia has good economic infrastructure. It plays an important role in connecting
Economic infrastructure
land-locked neighbours to export routes, but relies heavily on imported electricity.

Health and education coverage is good, with high attendance rates at school – but secondary education outcomes in
Social infrastructure
particular are poor, especially in comparison with other southern and eastern African countries.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint 86

 1 Structural economic features

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint

ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Namibia’s economic GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1990 TO 2022

performance
Following rapid economic growth post- Period of slowdown & contraction.
Growth has resumed - but the
independence, the Namibian economy has economy remains smaller than
performed below potential since 2015. Billions (constant 2015 $) in 2015 in real terms.

$12

Since gaining independence from South Africa in 1990, Namibia $10

has experienced two and half decades of sustained economic
growth. This expansion catapulted Namibia into the ranks of
upper-middle-income countries (GDP per capita reached $4,900 $8
in 2022).

Capital accumulation – primarily through private investment in $6

mining and public investment in infrastructure - has been the main
driver of growth.
$4
Notably, however, the role of Human Capital and Productivity in
growth has been negligible (see next slide). As a result, growth
decelerated. The economy has performed below potential since $2
2015, contracting during the Covid pandemic in 2019 and 2020.

Growth has resumed. However, an extended period of sluggish $0

1995

2015

2021
1990

2005

2010

2020
2000

2022
growth has prompted economic analysts to suggest that Namibia
may be stuck in a so-called “middle-income trap”, struggling to
compete in labour-intensive industries due to relatively high
Continued economic growth following
wages, but also in higher value-add activities while overall
independence – the economy grew nearly
productivity remains low. threefold in 25 years. Namibia is now classed
as an upper-middle-income country.

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: World Bank 88
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Economic FACTOR OF PRODUCTION AVERAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP GROWTH

productivity 100% Labour productivity

80% Labour stock

Productivity is declining, hampering growth and Capital stock
contributing to unemployment, poverty and 60% Total factor productivity
inequality. 40%
Namibia’s post-independence
20%
growth has primarily been driven
by capital stock accumulation
Namibia’s economic growth was driven by capital accumulation 0% and a growing workforce.
and labour. However, the contribution to growth by total factor 1992 - 2017 Contribution from increasing
-20% labour productivity has been
productivity (TFP) was mostly negative. Achieving higher
minimal, while that from TFP has
sustainable growth rates will require Namibia to implement -40% in fact been negative.
structural reforms raising TFP growth over the medium term.
Source: World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic, 2021

Productivity is almost 40% below the trend line established by

peer countries. Low labour productivity in relation to the country’s TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY (1992 = 100)
GDP is particularly challenging in sectors where informality is high.
TFP increased gradually until
The informal sector represents about 41% of employment, 110 2007 but has declined since.
contributing to income insecurity and vulnerability. Accelerated decline since
2015 has been a brake on
Despite increased human capital investment, educational 105 economic growth.
outcomes have remained low, resulting in widespread skills
mismatches. Shortages of skilled labour limit the capacity to apply 100
knowledge and innovation in many value adding economic
sectors.
95
Namibia is a technology frontrunner in Africa. However, services
are highly geographically concentrated. Despite improving access 90
to services, costs remains high. The domestic technical skills are
not high enough to drive the digital transformation initiatives that 85
the country aspires to roll out.

2018
2010
2000

2014

2016
2004

2006

2008

2012
2002
1994

1996

1998
1992

Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data 89
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Economic GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR (2021)

structure The primary sector is the The secondary sector is Other than tourism, the
foundation for the rest of the smallest contributor tertiary sector is driven
Mineral extraction is central to Namibia’s the economy; paying tax, to GDP. Manufacturing is by public sector
generating export, and predominately the semi- expenditure,
economy, but the public sector remains the single creating demand processing of primary characterized by limited
revenue for industry and sector products. value add and relatively
largest economic sector. services. inefficient investment.

100
Namibia is heavily dependent on the mining sector, accounting for 3.7 0.7
10.6
nearly 50% of exports and generating 25% of government 90
revenue. Other parts of the economy are dependent on mining, for 10.4
example manufacturing (11.3%) is dominated by the processing of 80
minerals. 1.9
70 5.7 0.6 1.0

The revenue generated by mining has largely been invested into 60

7.2
public services. As a result, Namibia has an expanding public 2.0
1.7
sector, with more than 50% of government expenditure allocated 2.8
50
to social sectors (education, health, welfare).
2.8
40 3.1
1.8
Agriculture, forestry and fishing accounts for 9.5% of GDP. Only 1% 11.3
of Namibia is suitable for arable farming, thus livestock is 30
prominent. Namibia is home to some of the richest fishing grounds 9.1
20
in the world and is the fastest-growing sector of the economy.
9.5
10
Tourism is a major contributor (11%) to GDP. The country is one
prime international tourism destinations in Africa, featuring its 0
extensive wildlife.

Utilities

Education

Health

households
Logistics

Wholesale and retail

Real estate
Mining

Financial services
Hospitality
Manufacturing

Prof. and tech. services

Construction

Admin and support services

Arts and Entertainment

Agriculture and fishing

Public admin and defence

Information Communication
Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: NSA Note: Total does not sum to 100% due to omission of taxes & subsidies 90
ANNEXE 3 - SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Employment EMPLOYMENT, BY ECONOMIC SECTOR (2018)

structure The primary sector The secondary sector is Retail and hospitality
employs ¼ of the labour sector is a small contributes most jobs
Employment concentrated in low skill sectors, force, mostly low-skilled contributor to Namibian outside of agriculture.
subsistence farming, employment, mostly The public
with agriculture overrepresented and mining Mining offers well-paid through construction administration is the
but few jobs. and manufacturing. largest single employer
underrepresented.

9.9
100
While the primary sector accounts for a quarter of total labour
force, mining only represents a small proportion. Most people are 2.7
90 6.5
engaged in a low productivity agricultural sector, mostly 4.7
subsistence and informal (Overall, >40% of the population is 80 0.7
4.1
employed in the informal sector). 1.9 0.1 1.2
70 11.4 1.0

Since independence, demand for primary sector output has

60 11.1
declined in relative terms, while the tertiary sector has expanded.
This trend has accompanied rapid rural-to-urban migration. Job 50
creation has not been enough to compensate, leading to a high 3.4
6.2
unemployment rate of 33.4%, mostly people with lower education 40
6.2 1.1
levels.
30 23
1.7

Across various sub-sectors (hospitality, retail, arts and

20
entertainment etc), tourism contributes significantly more
employment than it does GDP. On the other hand, real estate and 10
financial services, employ a smaller percentage (0.1% and 1.9%) than
their contribution to GDP (5.7% and 7.1%). 0

Utilities

Education
Logistics

Health

households
Real estate
Mining

Wholesale and retail

Financial services
Manufacturing

Hospitality

Prof. and tech. services

Construction

Admin and support services

Arts and Entertainment

Agriculture and fishing

Public admin and defence

Information Communication
Government of the Republic of Namibia | A green industrialisation blueprint Source: Labour Force Survey, 2018 Note: Total ≠ 100% due to omission of ‘Other’ category 91
Ergo Strategy Group Ltd
71-75 Shelton St, Covent Garden
London, WC2H 9JQ
REPUBLIC OF NAMIBIA
United Kingdom

www.ergostrategygroup.com