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18MAB204T Previous year QP

Probability and Queuing Theory (SRM Institute of Science and Technology)

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Reg. No.

B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, NOVEMBER 2016

Third Semester

15MA207 - PROBABILITY AND QUEUING TI{EORY

(For the candidates admitted during the academic year 2015 - 2016 onwards)
(Statistical tables to be supplied)
Notel
(i) Part - A should be answered in OMR sheet within frst 45 minutes and OMR sheet should be handed
over to hall invigilator at the end of 45m minute.
(iD Part - B and Part - C should be answered in answer booklet.

Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100

PART -A(20x1=20 Marks)

Answer ALL Questions
( -x,/
* > 0. The value of k is
l. A RV X has the probability density firnction -f (*)=lk' ",
lo, x<o
(A) 2 (B) I
2
(c) I (D) -l
2

Let X be a continuous RV then

(A) F(-oo): 0 (B) F(oo) :0
(C) F(m; - -1 (D) F(m) - 2

1. Let X be a discrete RV with possible values 1,2,3 associated with probabilities

""-'" 1,1.1
4'z' 4
respectively. Then E(X) is
(A) 1 (B) 2
(c) 3 (D) 4

4' Giu"n E(X) -1, E(X\ = 2 for a discrete RV X, then Var(3X+l) is

(A) e (B) r8
(c) 27 (D) 3

5. If X is uniformly distributed in (-3, 3) then its probability density function f(x) is given by
(A) 1 (B) 1
6 4
(c) 1 (D) 1
3 9

6. The normal probability curve is symmetrical about

(A) z- 1 (B) Z:6
(C) X: P (D) x- o
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Z. If the RV X follows a Poisson distribution with mean |2 ,f,"r.r P(X:0) is given by

(A) e-r -1
(B) e2
, @)"2
(C) ez
^

8. tf th" MGF of a distribution i" then the variance is

(A) 1 "3(e'-1) (B) 1

J 9
(c) e (D) 3

9. The Chi-square test is used to test

(A) The difference between population (B) The difference between population
means variances
(C) The goodness of fit (D) The difference between proportions

1 0. If a researcher rejects a null hypothesis which is true then it is a

(A) Type 1 error (B) Type 2 error
(C) Types A error (D) Standard error
11. The 't' distribution tends to _ distribution for sufficiently large value of y
(A) Uniform (B) ExPonential
(C) Standard normal (D) Poisson

12. _is used to test the difference between the population variances
(A) 't'-test (B) Chi-Square test
(C) Z-test (D) F-test

13. The symbol c in the queueing model (alblc): (dle) stands for
(A) Systemcapacity (B) Number of servers
(C) Queue size (D) Queue discipline
14. In a queueing system the arrival and inter service rate respectively are denoted as
(A) l,p (B) 1,1
p'A
(c) I (D) 4'-
,7
llt '
).p
15. If the behavior of the queueing system does not depend on time, then the system is said to be
in
(A) Transient state (B) Idle state
(C) Steady state (D) Busy state

16. If )" -8 / hr and E(N) - 4 customers for (MlMll):(mlFIFO) queue system then p is given by
(A) e (B) 10
(c) 1r (D) 12

17. A Markov chain is said to be a-periodic if

(A) dr=l (B) di=Z
(c) di:o (D) 3

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18. Irthe tpm ora Markov t, then ptrri,

"n"t" [fi irf""or., = (;,+)
(A) [t lll (B) [tt t:-]
l-.-l t-

112 12) lzt' -tz+ )

(c) [tt t I (D) [r: rrl
la'o) l'*'u)
19. The reaction to state i is uncertain if Fii :Ir,(')
1

it
j=1
(A) Greater than 1 (B) 0
(c) 1 (D) Less than I

20. A Markov chain is said to be absorbing if it has one absorbing rate

(A) Atrnost @) Atleast
(C) Exactly (D) Nearly

PART-B(5x4=20Marks)
Answer AI{Y FIVE Questions

21. The probability distribution of X is

.,,
x: 0 4 6
P(x): I I I 3
;J :
6 8 E
Find the mean and variance of X.

22. Buses arrive at a specified stop at 15 min intervals startirrg atl A.M, that is they arrive at 7,
7;15, 7:30, 7:45 and so on. If a passenger arrives at the stop at a random time that is
unifonnly distributed betu,een 7 and 7:30 A.M. Find the probability that he waits atleast 12
min for a bus.

23. A sample of size 13 gave an estimated population variance of 3.0, while another sample of
size 15 gave an estimate of 2.5- Could both samples be fiom populations with the same
variance?

24. A student's study habit's are as follows: If he studies one nighthe is 70% sure not to study
the nexl night. On the other hand, if he does not study one night, he is 60% sure not to study
the next as well. Write the tpm of the Markov Chain.

25. Explain the symbolic representation of a Queuing model.

I
26. Given the RV X with density tunction f (x) = l '] '
{?.'elsewhere n,ra the pdf of Y: 8X3.
10,

27. State and prove memoryless properfy of exponential distribution.

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PART-C(5x12=60Marks)
Answcr ALL Questions

28. a.i. A continuous RV X has pdf (x):k (l-x) for 0 < x < l. Find the rth moment about the origin.
Hence find mean, variance.

ii. If X denote the number in a throw of a fair die furd E(X), E(9x+2), Var (X).
(oR)
b. A fair die is tossed 600 times. Use TchebychefPs inequality to find a lower bound for the
probability ofgetting 80 to 120 sixes.

29. a. Find the MGF of Binomial distribution and hence frnd the mean and variance.

b. In a normal distribution, \Yo of ther*::?" under 35 and \9o/oare under 63. What are the
mean and standard deviation of the distribution?

30. a. A group of 5 patients treated with medicine A weigh 42,39,48,60 and 41 kg, a second group
of 7 patients from the same hospital treated with medicine B weigh 38,42.56,64,68,69 and
62.Do you agree with the claim that medicine B increases the weight significantly?

(oR)
b. In a locality 100 persons were randomly selected and asked about their educational
achievements. The results are given as
Education
Middle High school College Total
Sex Male l0 15 25 50
Female 25 10 15 50
Total 35 25 40 100
Can you say that education depends on sex?

31. a. Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to be Poisson with an average time of 10 min
betw,een one arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is assumed to be distributed
exponentially with mean 3 min
(i) Find the average number of persons waiting in the system
(ii) What is the probabiliff that a person arriving at the booth will have to wait in the
queue?
(iii) What is the probability that it will take him more than 10 min altogether to wait for
phone and complete his call?
(iv) The telephone department will install a second booth when convilced that an
arrival has to wait on the average for atleast 3 min for phone. By how much the
flow of arrivals should increase in order to justify a second booth?

(oR)
b. In a single server queuing system with Poisson input and exponential service times. If the
mean arrival rate is 3 calling units per hr, the mean service rate is 4 per hr and the maximum
number of calling units in the system is 2, find
(i) P,(n>O)
(iD Average number of calling units in the system
(iii) Average waiting time in the syslem
(iv) Average waiting time in the queue.
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lo.z 0.3 0.sl

32.u TheQmof aMarkov chatn {X^,n>0}havingthree states 0, I and, t, | 0., 0.6 031,
"= 0.3 031
Lo.o
The initial distribution is given by ptol = (0.5 0.3 0.2) frnd

(i) P(x, -21

(iD P(X3=3,Xr=2,Xr=l,Xs=2)-

(oR)
b. A salesman's territory consists of 3 cities A, B and C. He never sells in the same city on
successive days. If he sells in crty A, then the next day he sells in B. However, if he sells
either in B of C, then the next day he is twice as likely to sell in city A as in the other city.
How often does he sell in each ofthe cities in the steady state?

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ii. ln a normal distoibution, 7Yo of the items are under 35 and 89% are under 63. What are the Reg. No.
mean and standard deviation of the distribution?
B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, MAy 2012
30. a.i. kr a large city A, 20% of a random sample of 900 school boys had a slight physical defect. Third / Fourth Semester
In another large city B, 18.5% of a random sample of 1600 school boys had the same I5MA2O7 _ PROBABILITY AND QUEUING TT{EORY
defect. Is the difference between the proportions significant? (For the candidates admitted during the academic vear 2015
- 2016 onwards)
ii' The mean height and the SD height of 8 raadomly chosen soldiers are 166.9 and 8.29 cms (Statistical table to be provided)
respectively. The corresponding values of6 randomly chosen sailors are 170.3 and 8.50 cm Note:
(i) Part - A should be answered in OMR sheet within first 45 minutes and OMR sheet should be handed
respectively. Based on these data. can we conclude that soldiers are, in general shorter than
over to hall invigilator at the end of 45m minute.
sailors? (ii) Part - B and Part - C should be answered in answer booklet.

Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100

b. A total number of 3759 individual. 19.? ,n.*r"wed in a public opinion survey on a
political proposal. Of them, 1872 were men and tle rest women. A total of 2ZS7 PART-A(20x1=20Marks)
individuals were'in favour of the proposal and 917 were opposed to it. A total of243 men
Answer ALL Questions
were undecided ar..d 424 women were opposed to the proposal. Do youjustiff or contradict ]. A random variable X has the function
the hypothesis that there is no association between sex and attitude? 0 I 2 3 4
P(x): k 2k 5k 7k 9k
31. a. Customers arrive at a one-man barber shop according to a Poisson process with a mean
The value of K is.
inter arrival time of 12 min. Customers spend an average of l0 min in the barber's chair.
(1) What is the expected number of customers in the barber shop and in the queue? (A) 2/24 @) 2U24
(2) Calculate the percentage of time an arrival can walk straight into the barber's chair (c) 7/12 @) 1/24
without having to wait. 2. var[+x + g] is
(3) How much time can a customer expect to spend in the barber's shop? (A) rzvar[xj (B) avar[x]+s
(4) What is the average time customers spend in the queue?
(5) What is the probability that the waiting time in the system is greater than 30 min? (c) t6var[x] (D) 16 var[x]+ s
(6) Calculate the percentage of customers who have to wait prior to getting into the 3. When a die is t}rown, X denotes the number that tums up, find the mean
barber's chair, (A) 7t2 @) 3/4
(oR) (c) 4/s (D) -<ls
b. The local one-person barber shop can accommodate and maximum of 5 people at a time 4.
(4 waiting and 1 getting hair-cut). Customers arrive according to a Poisson distribution
Given that the PDF of a random variable X is /(x)=Zx; 0<x<l,find p(,Y>0.5)
with mean 15 per hour. The barber cuts hair at an average rate of4 per hour (exponential (A) 1/2 (B) 2t3
service time)
(c) 3/4 (D) 4/s
(l) What percentage of time is the barber idle? 5. If on an averagg 9 ships out of 10 arrive safely to a por! then mean and sD of the number of
(2) What fraction of the potential customers are tumed away? ships returning safely out of 150 ships are
(3) What is the expected number of customers waiting for a hair-cut? (A) 13s,2.674 (B) 125, 3.674
(4) How much time can a customer expect to spend in the barber shop? (c) 13s,3.674 (D) 12s,2.674
32. a. A man either drives a car or catches a train to go to oflice each day. He never goes 2 days Mean of the Poisson distribution is
in a row by train but if he drives one day, then the next day he is just as likely to drive (A) l. (B) ?,+1
again as he is to travel by train. Now suppose that on the first day of the week, the man (c) 1/tu (D) T,
tossed a fair dice and drove to work if and only if a 6 appeared. Find (i) the probability that
he takes a train on the third day (ii) the probability that he drives to work in the long run.
7. The MGF of Geometric distribution is
(A) 1 (B)
(oR) l-q"' l- pe'
b. Three boys A, B and c are tfuowing a ball to each other. A always throws the ball to B (c) (D)
and B always tfuows the ball to c, but c is just as likely to throw the ball to B as to A. J!-
Show that the process is Mmkovian. Find the transition matrix and classifu the states.
L- pe l-q"'

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8. The variance of Uniform distribution U(a,b) is 20. A state 'i' is said to be aperiodic with period 'di' if
(A) (A) di<1 (B) di: I
I (B)
Lr@-")'
12'
(,r
- r)' (c) di>1 (D) di: o
'
(c) 1(a*o) (D)
PART-B(5x4=20Marks)
2' )o-,) Answer ANY FfVE Questions
9. The value set for cr is known as
2t. x> 0 ' Find the value of k'
(B) Acceptance level A continuous random variable x has a pdf /(x) = laze-';
(A) Rejection level
(C) Signihcance level (D) Hypotheti cal level
Given the random variable x with density function
10. The standard deviation ofa sampling distribution is called as l2x
-" o<x<1
Y :
(A) Sampling error (B) Standard enor r/(x)
\ ''=.{ . Find the pdf of 8X3.

(C) Simple error @) Sample enor

L0 elsewhere

11. A is a subset of a 23. If the probability that an applicant for a driver's license will pass the road test on arry.given
(A) trial iJ 0.8, what is the probability that he will finally pass the test (i) on the fourth hial (ii)
Sample, population @) Population, sample
(C) Statistic,parameter (D) Parameter, statistic in fewer than 4 trials.

24. The mileage which can owner get with a certain kind of radial tire is a random variable
12. The hypothesis that an aralyst is trying to prove is called
(A) Electivehypothesis (B) Alternatehypothesis having an exponential distribution with mean 40, 000 km. Find the probabilities that one of
(C) (D) Optionalhypothesis these tires will last (i) atleast 20,000kms (ii) atrnost 30, 000kms.
Null hypothesis
13. The symbolic notation of queuing model is represented by 25. Define (i) null hypothesis (ii) altemate hypothesis (iii) Bpe I error (iv) type II error.
(A) Kendall (B) Euler
26. what do the letters in the symbolic representalion (a /b I c):(d I e) of a queuing model
. (C) Fisher (D) Neuman
represent?
14. The interval between two consecutive arrivals of a Poisson process follows
distribution. 27. Ifthepmof aMarkovcirainis [,:" .1t2) thechain.
(A) ]".l Findthesteadystatedistributionof
Binomial (B) Uniform 11/2
(C) Normal (D) Exponential
PART-C(5x12:60Marks)
15. The probability of 'n' customers in the system Po : Answer ALL Questions
,o, (B) ( s"\
[4)r. tt l)
,0 28. a. A random variable X has the following probabilit distribution
\p) lp) x:
|\
-1 0 I 2 3
(D) P(x): 0.1 k 0.2 2k 0.3 3k
'"' (#)'", (+) Po (i) Find k (ii) evaluate P(X < 2) (ii| P(-2 < X < 2) (iv) CDF of X (v) mean of X
(vi) variance of X.
16. Which term refers to "a customer who leaves the queue because the queue is too long"
(A) Balking (B) Reneging (oR)
(C) Jockeying (D) Leaving If X is a random variable with E(X)=3 and EOp):13, find the lower bound for
P(-2 < X< 8 ), using Tchebycheff s inequality.
17. The sum of all the elements of any row of the hansition probability matrix is
(A) 0 (B) 0.s ll. If X represents the outcome, when a fair die is tossed, furd the MGF of X and hence find
(c) 0.7s (D) I E(X) and var (X).
18. The steady state probability vector r of a discrete markov chain with transition probability 29. a. out of 800 families with 4 children each, how many families wouid be expected to have
matrix satisfies the matrix equation. (i) 2 boys and 2 girls (ii) atleast I boy (iii) atmost 2 girls (iv) children of both sexes.
(A) aP=o (B) rP=n Assume equal probabilities for boys and girls.
(c) z(t-r)=o (D) nP =r
(oR)
19. A non-null persistent and aperiodic state is called b.i. Buses arrive at a specified stop at 15 mins interval starting at 6 am (ie) arrive at 6am' 6.15
(A) Empty (B) Finite am, 6.30 am and so on. If a passenger arrives at the stop at a time that is uniformly
(C) Ergodic (D) Full distributed between 6 and 6.30 am, find the probability that he waits (l) less than 5 mins
for a bus (2) more than 10 mins for a but.
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ii. A continuous random variable X has a pdf f (x) = b2 "-* , frnd h mean and variance. Reg. No.

29. a. on for
Fit a binomial distribution lne foll
Ior the Iollo data: B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, MAY 2018
.r 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total First to Sixth Semester
f 5 18 28 t2 -,
6 4 80
t5MA207 - PROBABILITY AND QUEUING TFIEORY
(For the candidates adnitted during the academic year 2015 - 2016 omtords)
(oR)
Note:
b. In an engineering examinatioq a student is considered to have failed, secured second class, (i) Part - A should be answered in OMR sheet within first 45 minutes and OMR sheet should be
fust class and distinction according as he scores less than 45olo, between 45Yo artd 600/o, handed over to hall invigilator at the end of 45d minute.
between 60% and 7 5%o and above 7 5o/o respectively. In a particular year l0o/o of the students (iD Part - B and Part - C should be answered in answer booklet.
failed in the examination and 5o/o of. the students got distinction. Find the percentages of
students who have got frst class and second class. Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100
PART-A(20x1=20Marks)
30.a. 15.5 percent of a random sample of 1600 undergraduates were smokers, whereas 20Vo of a Answer ALL Questions
random sample of 900 post-graduates were smokers in a state. Can we conclude that less
number of undergraduates are smokers than the postgraduates? 1. If C is a constant then E(c) is
(A) 0 (B) I
(oR)
b. Theory predicts that the proportion of beans in four groups A, B, C and D should be 9:3:3:1. In an
(c) cf(9) (D) c

experiment among 1600 beans the numbers in the four groups were 882, 313, 287 arrd 118. Does
the experiment support the theory?
2. Var(4X +8) is
(A) l2Var(X) (B) 4Var(X)+8
31. a. Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to be Poisson with an average time of 12 (C) 16Var(X) (D) l6Var(X)+8
minutes between one arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is assumed to be
distributed exponentially with mean 4 minutes. 3. A random variable X has mean p : 12 and variance d:9 and an unknown probability
(i) Find the average number of persons waiting in the system. distribution, then P(6 <,Y < 18) is
(ii) What is the probability that a person arriving at the booth will have to wait in the
queue?
(A) I (B) 1
4
(iii) Estimate the fraction of the day when the phone will be in use'
2

(iv) What is the probability that it will take hirn more than 10 minutes altogether to
(c) I4
@)1
8
wait for the phone and complete his call?

(oR) 4' n(xz) and E(X) -2,then Var(X) is

b. The local one-person barber shop can accommodate a maximum of 5 people at a time
rc -8
(A) 3 (B) 2
(4 waiting and lgetting hair-cut). Customers arrive according to a Poisson distribution with (c) (D) 4
1
mean 5 per hour. The barber cuts hair at an average rate of4 per hour.
(i) What percentage of time is the barber idle?
5. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution is
(ii) What fraction of the potential customers are tumed away? (A) lt.- np, o2 = npg (B) p =npq,oz =np
(iir) What is the expected number of customers waiting for a hair-cut?
(iv) How much time can a customer expect to spend in the barber shop? (C) H=ne,o2 =npe (D) p -np, o2 = pe
32. a. A gambler has he bets {1 at a time and wins {1 with probabiliLy 112. He stops playing
t2 if 6. Mean of the Poisson distribution is
he loses T2 or wins {4. (B) l.+ t
(A) r"
(i) What is the tpm of the related Markov chain?
(C) I' (D) x-l
(ii) What is the probability that he has lost his money at the end of 5 plays?
(iiD What is the probabiliff that the game lasts more than 7 plays?
7. The MGF of geometrical distribution is
(oR) (A) 1 (B) 1

b. Three boys A, B and C are throwing a ball to each other. A always throws the ball to B and l- q"' l- pu'
B always throws the ball to C, but C is just as likety to throw the ball to B as to A. Show that (c)
the process in Markovian. Find the transition matrix and classiff the states.
q @) pet
l- pr' 7- qu'
:F****
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19. If one step transition probabiliry does not depend on the step, then the Markov chain is called
8. If X is uniformly disfibuted in (0, 10), then P(X > 8) is (A) Reducible (B) Regular
(A) r/s (B) r/ro (C) Homogeneous (D) Non homogeneous
(c) 3/5 (D) 1/3
20. The steady state probability vector z of A discrete Markov chain with TPM satisfies the
9. The form of the altemative hypothesis can be matrix equation
(A) One-tailed @) Two-tailed (A) nP:0 (B) zP:p
(C) Neither one nor two tailed @) One or two tailed (C) nP:x (D) n(l+P) - 0

10. What is the standard deviation of a sampling distribution called?

(A) Sampling enor
(C) Standard error
(B)
(D)
Sample error ffi,-.3,$;fl;1ffim
Simple error
21. If X is uniformly distributed t f+,+) find the pdf of .l' =tanX
I 1. When the researcher rejects a true null hypothesis, a error occurs. \2'2 )
(A) Type I @) TypeA
(C) Type B (D) Type tr If the probability that an applicant for a driver's license will pass the road test on any given
trial is 0.8, what is the probability that he will finally pass the test (i) on the fourth trial and
12. Student's t-distribution has (n-1) degrees of freedom. When all the n observations in the (ii) in fewer than 4 trials?
sample are
(A) Dependent (B) Independent
z3- The fataliq, rate of typhoid patients is believed to be l7.26percenl In a certain yeat 640
(C) Maximum (D) Minimum patients suffering from typhoid were treated in metropolitan hospital and only 63 patients
died. Can you consider the hospital efficient?
13. What stand for 'd' in the queue model (a I b I c:d/ e)
(A) (B) 24. In the usual notation ofa(M lM /l):(a/ FIFO) queue system ifX: 12 perhour andp:24
Queue discipline System capacity
(C) Service time (D) Number of servers per hour, find the average number of customers in the system and in the queue.

t4. 25. The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain

The average number of customers in the system n (M I M / l: a I FIFO) model is {X, } , n =1,2,3.... having 3 states 1, 2,
(A) l, (B) o.t
( o.s 0.4)
p-1"
p
l"-p
tt
and 3 is P=l 0.6 0.2 0.2 I and the initial distribulion is p(0)=(0.7,0.2,0.1). Find
(c) x (D) p
tt 0.4
[0.3 0.3 )
Lr+I r+p P{x2 -3}.
15. Which term refers to oa customer.who leaves the queue because the queue is too long'?
(A) Balking (B) Reneging 26. If X is a random variable whose density function i, "f(x) = €--x ,-0 < r < co. Find rth moment
(C) Jockeying (D) Leaving - 0 otherwise
about origin andhence find p1 and 12.
16. In (M I M /l:K /FIFO) model, if )":3 perhour, pt:4 perhour and effective mean arrival
rate of a customer is 2.88 per hour then what Pn? a1
State and prove memoryless property of the exponential distribution.
(A) 0.18 (B) 0.28
(c) 0.38 (D) 0.48 PART-C(5x12=60Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
17. Markov proves is one in which the future value is independent of values.
(A) Present (B) Past 28.a. If the random variable X takes the values 1, 2,3and4such that
(C) Future (D) Outcome 2P(X -l)=3P(X -2)= P(X =3) -sP(X -4), find the probability distribution and
cumulative distribution function of X.
18. Ergodic means
(A) Ineducible and periodic (B) kreducible and aperiodic (oR)
(C) Not ineducible (D) Regular b.i A fair die is tossed 720 times. Use TchebychefPs inequality to find a lower bound for the
probability of getting 100 to 140 sixes.

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ii. Derive the moment generating fimction of uriform dishibution and hence firrd mean and variance Reg. No.
ofthe distribution.
(oR)
B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, NOVEI\{BER 2015
b.i. If X has a geometdc distribution, then for any two positive integers m and q prove that
Fourth Semester
PIX>m+n/X>m]=PlX>nl.
. MAIO14- PROBABILITY AND QI]ET]ING TMORY
ii. Let X be is a normal variate with mean 30 and standard deviation is 5. Find ttre following d ring ,he academic ))ear 2013 - 2014)
(For the candidates adnixed
Pl26 < X < 401, plx > 4sl and P1:lx 4oll> 5. (Statistical tunb is to be provided)
Note:
(, Part - A should be a.nswered in OMR sheet within first 45 minutes ard OMR sheet should be ha.nded over to
30. a- Two random samples gave the data. hall iflvigilator ar the end of456 minute.
SamDle Size Mean Variance (i, Part - B ard Part - C should be answered ifl arswer bookleL
I 8 9.6 t)
2 li 16.5 2.t Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100

Cao we conclude that the two samples have been drawn from the same normal population? PART -A (20 x 1= 20 Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
(oR) 1.
b.i. Test the significance ofthe difference between the means ofthe samples, dm\,,,rr from two normal
The probabiliry density imction ofa contiruous random variable is f(x\:ce-'l;-a<x<a
populations with the same standard deviation then the va1u9 ofc is
dala.
(A) v2 (B) 1/4
SamDle
I
Size Mean SD
100 61 4
(c) 3/4 (D) 1/6

2 200 63 z altt
:- "-'-, then E(x) is
6
lf "/(r)=i '
ii. The following data give the number ofair-craft accidents that occured during the various days of l0
a week- (A) 0.33 (B) 1.33
Days Mon Tues Wed Tturs Fri Sal (c) 2.33 (D)
No. ofaccidents l5 19 l3 t2 t6 15 3. Yd44X+8) is
Test whether the accidents are unifomly distribuGd. (A) t2va{x) (B) 4,za{x)+8
(c) t6ra4x) @) 161/a(x)+8
31. a. A deparlmental store has a single cashier. During the rush hours, customers araive at the rate of 20 4 IfX is a random variable and r is an integer, then E(-t -t)' represents
customers per hour. The average number of customers that can be processed by the cashier is 24
per hour. (i) what is the probability that the cashier is idle? (ii) what is the average number of (A) rd centlal moment (B) P factorial moment
customer in the queuing system? (iii) what is the aveEge time a customer spends in the system? (C) rd mw moment (D) (r-l)d cenaal moment
(iv) whal is the avemge number of customers in the queue? (v) what is the average time a 5. Which distribution has equal mean and variance?
customer spends in ihe queue, waiting for service? (A) Binomial @) Poisson
(oR) (C) E).?onential (D) Normal
b. The local one-person barber shop can accommodate a maximum of 5 people at a time (4 waiting
and I getting hair cut). Customers ardve according to a Poisson distribution with mean 5 per hour. 6. Ifthe probability thata target is destroyed on any one shot is 0.5, then the probability that it would
The baxber cuts hair at an avenlge mte of 4 per hour (exponential service time). (i) what be destroyed on 6d attempt is
percentage of time is the barber idle? (ii) what ftaction ofthe potential customers are tumed away? (A) 0.106s (B) 0.0165
(iii) what is the expected nunber of customers waiting for a hair cufl (iv) how much time can a (c) 0.r056 (D) 0.0156
customer expected to spend in tl-re barber shop? 7. The cumulative distdbution fimction off(x) ofan exponential distribution is
(A) e-t x>o l; @) -t; x>o
32. a" The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain {\}: n = t, 2, 3... having 3 states 1, 2, and 3
(c) "t'
fo.r l-e-b; x>o @) 1-etu; .r > o
tt o.s 0.4\
is - P=ltt0.6 0.2 0.21. Initial distribution is P(0) = (0.7 0.2 0.1). Find (D P{Xr=3} 8. The prcbability density function of a standard normal distribution is
(0.3 0.4 0.3, 1 2l^
t'.0<z<*
(ii) P{x3=2, &=3, xr=3, &:2}
1tt (121=le,'1,,
I
-*. r,.*
2Ja
(ts) 0e\=-=e
\l zlt
'
(oR) 1 )/^
b. Three boys A, B and C are throwing a ball to each other. A always thiows the ball to B and B rct drzt =Le'zl,g. r.* (D) 0lzl=-=e' t'i-a <z <a
always tl.[ows the ball to C, but C is just as likety to tlrow the ball to B as to A. Show tlEt the
"l2z \lZJr
process is Markovian. Find the tmosition*matrix and classi8, the states.

21NAIMAt014

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The test used to test the equaliry ofvariance oftle populations &om two small samples is 20. State i is said to be aperiodic with period di, if
(A) t-test (B) F-test (A) di> 1 (B) d'<1
(C) t' .test (D) Independent of altributes (c) 4=1 (D) di=o
10. .{ and population
PART-B(5x4=20Marks)
In large samples, to test the sigrfficance ofthe difference between sample mean
Answer ANY FIVE Questio.s
mean p, the test statistic (sample standard deviation s is known) is
A random variable X has a mean p = 12 and &=gardan ulnown probability
al ,=P, ! 21.
distribulion. Find P(6<X<l 8).
variance

s/ ',J
n
0<x<l
ll:l -
7=
X-"' At ,=-!J:
slJn-l
22. Given the random variable X with density fimction rr,) =
l2x
sf .ln -r to elsewhere
Find the pobability densiry ofY = 8X3.
I l. 95% conidence limits for the population proportions is
@)
(A) p+2.s8P ,-,rrp 23. A favel company has two cars for hiring. The demand for a cztl on each day is distributed as
Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the propotion ofdays on which some demand is refused'
@
rc) 1.96,@
tn orr.rup 24, The time (in hous) requied to repair a maohine is exponentially distributed with parameter
L = U2. What is the conditional probability that a repair takes a.tleast 10 hous given that its
12. The application of one-tailed or two-tailed test depends upon the nature ofthe
duration exceeds t hou$?
(A) Null hypothesis (B) Altemative hypothesis 25. Experience has shoun thal 20'/o of a manufactured product is of top quality. In one day's
(C) Level ofsignificanoe (LOS) @) Degrees offieedom production of 400 articles only 50 are of top quality. Show that either the production of the day
13. In queuing system, the mrmbet of customers sewiced per unit has a Poisson distribution with chosen was not a reprcsentative sample or the hypothesis of 20% was wrong.
mean
(B) l/p 26. In a railway marshalling yaxd goods trains aEive at rate of 30 trains per day. Assuming that the
(A) p
inter-arrivai time followi an exponential distribution and the service time is also exponential with
(c) 2tv (D) 3/p
an average of 36 minutes. Calculate expected queue size (line length).
14. In the symbolic representation ofa queue model (a I b / c):(d / e), wlrere c denotes.
(A) The type ofdishibution ofthe no of
(B) The type ofdishibution oflhe no ofservices t
27. If the ran:ition probability marrir of a Marko\ an", ,, [,f, ). o,o the steady state
anivals per unit time per rmit time v2)
(C) No ofservers (D) The capacity ofthe system
distribution of the chain.
15. Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to the Poisson with an average time of 12 minutes
between one arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is assumed to be distibuted
PART-C(5x12=60Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
exponentially with mean 4 minutes. What is the average number of persons waiting in the system?
(A) 0.5 (B) 1.0 28. a.i. A mndom vadable X has the fo
(c) r.5 (D) 2.0

16. Probabitity tlat the nurnber ofcustomers in the system exceeds k (i.e) P1N > k) is
(A) )"lp @) (ilr)o oo
(A) Find K (B) Evaluate P(X< 2)
distribution fimction ofx
(C) Evaluate
(E) Evaluate the mean and variance
P(-2<X4) @) Find the cumulative
ofx.
(c) po {o) 1tl p)k-t eo
@l p)o*' (oR)
17. The conditional probability that the process is in state aj at step q given that it was in state .b.r. Ihe probability tunction of an infinite dis$ete distribution is given by

4 at step 0 is called
(A) (B) Two-step transitionprobability
Ptx = i) = +lj =1,2,....@). Verify that the total probability is 1 and find the mean and variance
One-steptrarsitionprcbability 2r
(C) (n- 1) step tra.sition probability (D) n-step transition probability ofthe disaibution.
18. The P',r of a Markov chain is stochastic matrix, because I "-21./': r>u
(A) p, >0 &l p;i =l @) ri1<0 &l Pii =l ii. rf f( =|xe
J [0 I x<0
(c) pii>O &lpii =1 @) eii <0 &f P,t =1 (l) Show that f(r) is a Eobabiliry deNity function of a continuous random variable X
(2) Find its distribution F(.t).
j
19. tf pl"!o for some n and for all i and then every state can be rcached fiom every other state.
When this condition is satisfied, the Markov Chain is said to
(A) Reducible (B) Ineducible
(C) Periodic @) Aperiodic 21NA4MAI014
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Reg. No.

B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, MAY 2018

Fourth Semester

MA1014 - PROBABTLITY AND QUEITING TIIEORY

(For the candidates admitted during the academic yeor 2013
- 2A14 and 2014 -2015)
(Statistical tables to be supplied)
Note:
(i) Part - A should be answered in OMR sheet within frst 45 minutes and OMR sheet should be handed
over to hall invigilator at the end of 45tr minute.
(ii) Part - B and Part - C should be answered in answer booklet.

Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100

PART-A(20x1=20Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
1. The probability density' function of a continuous random variable is
f (*) - C"-l*l ,- co < r < € then the value of C :
(A) 1 (B)
1
2 4
(c) 1 (D)
T
4 6

2. If the continuous random variable X has pdf /(x) ={:*'o<x<l. rhen the pdf of
' [0, otherwise
!=4x+3 is
(A) (B)
(c)
]r'-tl frfr_rl
(D)
)O_rl )tr_rl
3. A random variable X has the pdf given by f (*\={'"-'*,'=', then MGF is
Lo, x<o
(A) 2 (B) 3
2-t 3-t
(c) ze_t)-3 (D)
\z_t)-2
4' 6 random variable X has mean F:12 and varian"".o2 =9 and an unknown probability
distribution, then P(6. x < l8) is
(A) 1 (B) I4
2
(c) 1 (D) 1
4 8

5' If X is a Poisson variate such that ,(r') o ,t.r-, r(x) is

=
(A) 3 (B) 2
(c) I (D) 0

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6. The mean of the exponential distribution with pdf le-L*, x ) 0

(A) )" (B) 1
).
(c) 1,
(D) 1

L"2

7. Arandom variable X has 4 r',niform distribution over (-:,:).The value of k for which
x>r)
P(\,ra =1 i,
-f
(A) 3 (B) 2
(c) 1
(D) -2

8. Normal distribution is the limiting form of distribution under suitable statistical

conditions.
(A) Binomial (B) Poisson
(C) Geometric (D) Uniform

9. The Chi-square goodness of fit test can be used to test for

(A) Significanci of sample statistics (B) Difference between population means
(C) Normality (D) ProbabilitY

10. Which of the following values is not typically used for o?

(A) 0.01 (B) 0.0s
(c) 1.10 (D) 0.2s

1 1. The degrees of freedom for t test based on n observations is

(A) Zn-r (B) n-2
(c) z(n-r) (D) n-l

12. When the researcher rejects a true null hypothesis a error occurs?
(A) Type I (B) Type A
(C) Type II (D) Type B

13. The probabiliry of no customers in the system i" (M I M ll;a I FIFO) model
(A) L (B) 71
u
--r
u
(c) ,--.l (D) )" ,
r
u
-+r
u

14. The probability that the number of customers in the system exceeds lq 1n

(U tU l!:olFIFO) model
(A) ( t (B) ( t\o*'
\o*t
lr) lr)
(c) (D) ( t\o
(
^\o*,
ln) ln)

llMA4MA1014
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15. What is the mean of the Poisson process?

(A) I (B)
(c) )"tt ^t
(D) tt)"
16. The traffic intensity of a queuing system is
(A) ,2' (B) p
(C) lt P (D) ptl
17. A state i is said to be aperiodic with periodic di if
(A) di <t (B) di =1
(c) di >r (D) di=0
18. A non null persistent and aperiodic state is called
(A) Eorpty (B) Finite
(C) Ergodic (D) 1
19. The state i is said to be non null persistent if its mean recurrence time pii is
(A) Finite (B) Infrnite
(C) Empty (D) 1

20. The steady state probability vector z of a discrete Markov chain with transition probability
matrix p satisfies the matrix equation
(A) Ep =0 (B) nP=n
(c) p)=o (D) frP'=0
"(t-
PART-B(5x4=20Marks)
Answer All-Y FM Questions
?
2t. If a random variable X has moment generating function ltr*lt) = Obtain the standard
*.
deviation of X.

22. Trains arrive at a station at 15 minutes intervals starting at 4am. If a passenger arive to the
statin at a time that is uniformly distributed between 9.00 and 9.30 find the probability that
he has to wait for the train for (i) less than 6 minutes (ii) more than 10 minutes.

Theory predicts that the proportion of beans in four groups A, B, C, D should be 9:3:3:1. In
an experiment among 1600 beans, the numbers in the four groups were 882, 313,287 and
1i8. Does the experiment support the theory?

24. Explain Kendall's notation for queuing models.

(tt+
25. Let p=l- ._ 1/4\
_-l
' lU2 U2) be the TPM of a two state Markov chain. Find the stationary
probabilities of the chain.

26. State and prove memoryless properly of geometric distribution.

27. Find MGF of the random variable whose moments are pr': (r + 1)3' and find its mean.

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PART - C (5 x 12 -- 60 Marks)
Answer ALL Questions

28. a.i If X is random variable having the density function

^, \ fxl6,x=1,2,3
,r(r) =
{0, otherwise
Find E(f +2x+Z) anO var(4x+5).
\
\ / " (8Marks)
ii. If the continuous random variable X has pdf f (x)=2/9(x+t),-t <x<2 find the pdf of
2
! = x". (4 Marks)

(oR)
b.i Th" distribution function of random variable X is given by lr(x):t-(1 +x)e-*,x>0.
Find the density function, meane variance of X. (8 Marks)

ii. A fair die is tossed 720 times. Use Tchebycheff inequality to find a lower bound for the
probability of getting 100 to 140 sixes. (4 Marks)

29. a.i Fit a Poisson distribution lor the foll

on for data
x 0 I 2 J 4 5 Total
f t42 156 69 27 5 1 400
Find the probability mass function and then find the theoretical frequencies. (8 Marks)

The time (in hours) required to repair a machine is exponential distributed with parameter
)" =l I 2. What is the conditional probability that a repair takes atleast 10h given that its
duration exceeds th? (4 Marks)

(oR)
b.i In an engineering examination, a student is considered to have failed, secured second class,
frst class and distinction, according as he scores less that 45yo, between 45% and 60%
between 60% and 75Yo and above 75o/o respectively. In a particular year 10% of the
students failed in the examination and 5% of the students got distinction. Find the
percentages of students who have got first class and second class. (8 Marks)
ii. If the probability that an applicant for a driving license will pass the road test on any given
trial is 0.8. What is the probability that he will finally pass the test on the fourth trial?
(4 Marks)

30. a.i Random samples of 400 men and 600 women were asked whether they would like to have
a school near their residence 200 men and 325 women were in favour of the proposal. Test
the hypothesis that the proportions of men and women in favour of the proposal are same,
at5% level of significance. (8 Marks)

ii. A group of five patients treated with the medicine 'A' weights 42, 39, 48, 60 and 4l kg; u
second group of 7 patients from the same hospital treated with the medicine 'B' weights
38, 42, 56,64,68, 69 and 62 kg. Do you agree with the claim that medicine B increases the
weight significantly? (4 Marks)

(oR)

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b.i The mean of 2large samples 1000 and 2000 members are 67.5 inches and 68 inches
respectively. Can the samples be regarded as drawn from the same population of standard
deviation:2.5 inches? (8 Marks)

ii. Two independent samples of sizes 9 and 7 from a normal population had the following
values of the variables
Sample 1 18 13 t2 15 t2 l4 T6 l4 15
Sample 2 t6 t9 13 16 18 t3 15
Do the estimates of the population variance differ significantly 5Yo level?
at (4 Marks)

31. a. Customers arrive at a watch repair shop according to a Poisson process at a rate of one per
every 10 minutes and service time is an exponential random variable with mean 8 minutes.
(i) Find the average number of customers Ls in the shop.
(iD Find the ayerage time a customer spend in the shop Ws.
(iii) Find the average time that a customers spends in the queue Wq.
(iv) Find the average number of customers in the queue Lq.
(v) What is the probability that the server is idle?

(oR)
b. In a car wash service facility, cars a:rive for service according to Poisson distribution with
mean 5 per hour. The time for washing and cleaning each car has exponential distribution
with mean 10 minutes per cax. The.facility cannot handle more than one car at a time and
has atotal of 5 parking spaces.
(i) Find the effective arrival rate.
(ii) What is the probability that an arriving car will get service immediately upon
wrival?
(iii) Find the expected number of parking spaces occupied.
32. a. The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain \Xr\,n--I,2,3...... having 3 states 1, 2

(r., o.s o o)
and 3 is r=lo.o 0.2 0.2 and the initial distribution is o(o) =(0.7,0.2,2,0.1). Find
|
[0., 0.4 fi)
(t) P (x2 = 3) (i1) P (& = 2, x3 = 2, x 2 = 3, xt = 3, x o = 2).

(oR)
b. Three boys A, B and C are throwing a bail to each other. A always throws the ball to B and
B always throws the bail to C, but C is just as likely to throws the ball to B as to A. Show
that the process is Markovian. Find the transition matrix and classify the status.

*****

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ii. Derive the moment generating fimction of uriform dishibution and hence firrd mean and variance Reg. No.
ofthe distribution.
(oR)
B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, NOVEI\{BER 2015
b.i. If X has a geometdc distribution, then for any two positive integers m and q prove that
Fourth Semester
PIX>m+n/X>m]=PlX>nl.
. MAIO14- PROBABILITY AND QI]ET]ING TMORY
ii. Let X be is a normal variate with mean 30 and standard deviation is 5. Find ttre following d ring ,he academic ))ear 2013 - 2014)
(For the candidates adnixed
Pl26 < X < 401, plx > 4sl and P1:lx 4oll> 5. (Statistical tunb is to be provided)
Note:
(, Part - A should be a.nswered in OMR sheet within first 45 minutes ard OMR sheet should be ha.nded over to
30. a- Two random samples gave the data. hall iflvigilator ar the end of456 minute.
SamDle Size Mean Variance (i, Part - B ard Part - C should be answered ifl arswer bookleL
I 8 9.6 t)
2 li 16.5 2.t Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100

Cao we conclude that the two samples have been drawn from the same normal population? PART -A (20 x 1= 20 Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
(oR) 1.
b.i. Test the significance ofthe difference between the means ofthe samples, dm\,,,rr from two normal
The probabiliry density imction ofa contiruous random variable is f(x\:ce-'l;-a<x<a
populations with the same standard deviation then the va1u9 ofc is
dala.
(A) v2 (B) 1/4
SamDle
I
Size Mean SD
100 61 4
(c) 3/4 (D) 1/6

2 200 63 z altt
:- "-'-, then E(x) is
6
lf "/(r)=i '
ii. The following data give the number ofair-craft accidents that occured during the various days of l0
a week- (A) 0.33 (B) 1.33
Days Mon Tues Wed Tturs Fri Sal (c) 2.33 (D)
No. ofaccidents l5 19 l3 t2 t6 15 3. Yd44X+8) is
Test whether the accidents are unifomly distribuGd. (A) t2va{x) (B) 4,za{x)+8
(c) t6ra4x) @) 161/a(x)+8
31. a. A deparlmental store has a single cashier. During the rush hours, customers araive at the rate of 20 4 IfX is a random variable and r is an integer, then E(-t -t)' represents
customers per hour. The average number of customers that can be processed by the cashier is 24
per hour. (i) what is the probability that the cashier is idle? (ii) what is the average number of (A) rd centlal moment (B) P factorial moment
customer in the queuing system? (iii) what is the aveEge time a customer spends in the system? (C) rd mw moment (D) (r-l)d cenaal moment
(iv) whal is the avemge number of customers in the queue? (v) what is the average time a 5. Which distribution has equal mean and variance?
customer spends in ihe queue, waiting for service? (A) Binomial @) Poisson
(oR) (C) E).?onential (D) Normal
b. The local one-person barber shop can accommodate a maximum of 5 people at a time (4 waiting
and I getting hair cut). Customers ardve according to a Poisson distribution with mean 5 per hour. 6. Ifthe probability thata target is destroyed on any one shot is 0.5, then the probability that it would
The baxber cuts hair at an avenlge mte of 4 per hour (exponential service time). (i) what be destroyed on 6d attempt is
percentage of time is the barber idle? (ii) what ftaction ofthe potential customers are tumed away? (A) 0.106s (B) 0.0165
(iii) what is the expected nunber of customers waiting for a hair cufl (iv) how much time can a (c) 0.r056 (D) 0.0156
customer expected to spend in tl-re barber shop? 7. The cumulative distdbution fimction off(x) ofan exponential distribution is
(A) e-t x>o l; @) -t; x>o
32. a" The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain {\}: n = t, 2, 3... having 3 states 1, 2, and 3
(c) "t'
fo.r l-e-b; x>o @) 1-etu; .r > o
tt o.s 0.4\
is - P=ltt0.6 0.2 0.21. Initial distribution is P(0) = (0.7 0.2 0.1). Find (D P{Xr=3} 8. The prcbability density function of a standard normal distribution is
(0.3 0.4 0.3, 1 2l^
t'.0<z<*
(ii) P{x3=2, &=3, xr=3, &:2}
1tt (121=le,'1,,
I
-*. r,.*
2Ja
(ts) 0e\=-=e
\l zlt
'
(oR) 1 )/^
b. Three boys A, B and C are throwing a ball to each other. A always thiows the ball to B and B rct drzt =Le'zl,g. r.* (D) 0lzl=-=e' t'i-a <z <a
always tl.[ows the ball to C, but C is just as likety to tlrow the ball to B as to A. Show tlEt the
"l2z \lZJr
process is Markovian. Find the tmosition*matrix and classi8, the states.

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The test used to test the equaliry ofvariance oftle populations &om two small samples is 20. State i is said to be aperiodic with period di, if
(A) t-test (B) F-test (A) di> 1 (B) d'<1
(C) t' .test (D) Independent of altributes (c) 4=1 (D) di=o
10. .{ and population
PART-B(5x4=20Marks)
In large samples, to test the sigrfficance ofthe difference between sample mean
Answer ANY FIVE Questio.s
mean p, the test statistic (sample standard deviation s is known) is
A random variable X has a mean p = 12 and &=gardan ulnown probability
al ,=P, ! 21.
distribulion. Find P(6<X<l 8).
variance

s/ ',J
n
0<x<l
ll:l -
7=
X-"' At ,=-!J:
slJn-l
22. Given the random variable X with density fimction rr,) =
l2x
sf .ln -r to elsewhere
Find the pobability densiry ofY = 8X3.
I l. 95% conidence limits for the population proportions is
@)
(A) p+2.s8P ,-,rrp 23. A favel company has two cars for hiring. The demand for a cztl on each day is distributed as
Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the propotion ofdays on which some demand is refused'
@
rc) 1.96,@
tn orr.rup 24, The time (in hous) requied to repair a maohine is exponentially distributed with parameter
L = U2. What is the conditional probability that a repair takes a.tleast 10 hous given that its
12. The application of one-tailed or two-tailed test depends upon the nature ofthe
duration exceeds t hou$?
(A) Null hypothesis (B) Altemative hypothesis 25. Experience has shoun thal 20'/o of a manufactured product is of top quality. In one day's
(C) Level ofsignificanoe (LOS) @) Degrees offieedom production of 400 articles only 50 are of top quality. Show that either the production of the day
13. In queuing system, the mrmbet of customers sewiced per unit has a Poisson distribution with chosen was not a reprcsentative sample or the hypothesis of 20% was wrong.
mean
(B) l/p 26. In a railway marshalling yaxd goods trains aEive at rate of 30 trains per day. Assuming that the
(A) p
inter-arrivai time followi an exponential distribution and the service time is also exponential with
(c) 2tv (D) 3/p
an average of 36 minutes. Calculate expected queue size (line length).
14. In the symbolic representation ofa queue model (a I b / c):(d / e), wlrere c denotes.
(A) The type ofdishibution ofthe no of
(B) The type ofdishibution oflhe no ofservices t
27. If the ran:ition probability marrir of a Marko\ an", ,, [,f, ). o,o the steady state
anivals per unit time per rmit time v2)
(C) No ofservers (D) The capacity ofthe system
distribution of the chain.
15. Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to the Poisson with an average time of 12 minutes
between one arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is assumed to be distibuted
PART-C(5x12=60Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
exponentially with mean 4 minutes. What is the average number of persons waiting in the system?
(A) 0.5 (B) 1.0 28. a.i. A mndom vadable X has the fo
(c) r.5 (D) 2.0

16. Probabitity tlat the nurnber ofcustomers in the system exceeds k (i.e) P1N > k) is
(A) )"lp @) (ilr)o oo
(A) Find K (B) Evaluate P(X< 2)
distribution fimction ofx
(C) Evaluate
(E) Evaluate the mean and variance
P(-2<X4) @) Find the cumulative
ofx.
(c) po {o) 1tl p)k-t eo
@l p)o*' (oR)
17. The conditional probability that the process is in state aj at step q given that it was in state .b.r. Ihe probability tunction of an infinite dis$ete distribution is given by

4 at step 0 is called
(A) (B) Two-step transitionprobability
Ptx = i) = +lj =1,2,....@). Verify that the total probability is 1 and find the mean and variance
One-steptrarsitionprcbability 2r
(C) (n- 1) step tra.sition probability (D) n-step transition probability ofthe disaibution.
18. The P',r of a Markov chain is stochastic matrix, because I "-21./': r>u
(A) p, >0 &l p;i =l @) ri1<0 &l Pii =l ii. rf f( =|xe
J [0 I x<0
(c) pii>O &lpii =1 @) eii <0 &f P,t =1 (l) Show that f(r) is a Eobabiliry deNity function of a continuous random variable X
(2) Find its distribution F(.t).
j
19. tf pl"!o for some n and for all i and then every state can be rcached fiom every other state.
When this condition is satisfied, the Markov Chain is said to
(A) Reducible (B) Ineducible
(C) Periodic @) Aperiodic 21NA4MAI014
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Reg. No.

B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, MAY 2016

Fourth Semester

MA1014 - PROBABILITY AND QUEUING THEORY

(For the candidates admitted dwing the academic year 2013 - 2014 and 2014 -2015)
(Statistical tables to be supplied)
Note:
(i) Part - A should be answered in OMR sheet witiin first 45 minutes and OMR sheet should be handed
over to hall invigilator at the end of 45t minute.
(iD Part - B and Part - C should be answered in answer booklet.

Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100

PART-A(20x 1=20Marks)
Answer ALL Questions
o-,
l.
I
A random variable X has the probability density tunction f (x) -t;,1 MGF of (x)
:; '-e
is
(A) 1 (B) 2
l-t 2-t
(c) 2(r-t) (D) (l - r)
2. If X is a discrete RV taking values x1,r2...where xt 1xz ( r: (.....ri_r < r, <...then
P(X = x,)=
(A) F(a) (B) F(x,)-F(x,_r)
(C) F(r,-r) (D) F(r,-r)-F(x,)

It < x' 5
3. Let X be a continuous RV with pdf ,f (r) = .l 1)7 ,h" value of K is
[0; otherwise
(A) I (B) 1
4 2
(c) 4 (D) 2

4. Given E1X2; =+, E(X) :0 for a discrete RV X then var (2x +3) is
(A) 4 @)8
(c) 16 (D) le
5. If X is uniformly distributed in (-1, 3) then its probability densrty function f(x) is given by
(A) 1 (B) 1
) 4
(c) I
J
(D) I4

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6. In a normal distribution about99%o of the observation lie between

(A) p+25 @) p+o
(C) pf 3o @) p+d
7. If the RV X follows a Poisson distribution with mean 2, then P(X :1) is
(A) 2 (B) 1

e?
(c) r @)
eZ
ez
2e2 T

8.
[r] u
,x > 0
The mean of r}Ie exponential distribution with pdf f (x) -)Ve
[0, o,h.r*ir.
(A) 1 (g)a
e
(c) ---;I (D) ez
e"

9. The Chi-square goodness of fit test can be used to test

(A) Significance of sample statistic @) Difference between population means
(C) Normality @) Probability

10. A _ elror occurs when the researcher rejects a null hypothesis when it is true
(A) Type l enor (B) Type 2 enor
(C) Type A error (D) Type B eror
I 1. For sufficiently large value of n, the t-distibution tends to
(A) Uniform distribution (B) Standard normal distribution
(C) Geometricdistribution @) Binomial distribution

1) is used to test whether the differences between observed and expected

frequencies are significant or not
(A) Chi-square (B) t -test
(C) Ftest (D) Z -test

13. The symbol d in the queuing model (a,/b/c):(d/e) stands for

(A) Queue discipline @) System capacity
(C) Maximum queue size @) Service time

14. If the behaviour of the queuing system depends on time, then the system is said to be in
(A) Steady state @) Transient state
(C) Idle state @) Busy state
15. In a queuing system the arrival and inter service rate respectively are denoted as
(A) l,p (B)11
-);
ltA
(c) u.-I (D).1
p

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16. The probability that a customer has to wait more than 1 5 min to get his service completed in
a (M/l\zVl):(comIfo) queue system if l":6Ar and p:1Olhr is
(A) 0.3769 (B) 0.3976
(c) 0.36e7 (D) 0.3679

17. The period ( of a Markov chain is given by

(A) GCO{*:p,-(,n) >0} (B) ccolm:r,,@t >o\
(C) GCD{*:p.-(.) > 0} @) oco{m:rr(') >o}

n.
18. The return to state i is certain if 4, = I f,(') is

(A) 0 (B) I
(C) Less than 1 (D) Greater than 1

19. A non null persistent and a periodic state is said to be

(A) Ergodic @) Recurent
(C) Transient @) Ireducible
20. If the one step bansition probability does not depend on the step, then the Markov chain is
called
(A) Reducible @) Regular
(C) Homogeneous @) Non homogeneous

PART-B(5x4=20Marks)
Answer ANY FfVE Questions

2t. Given the random variabte x with density tuncrion .f (x) ={1*'!'*."
elsewhere
.
[0,
Find the pdt of Y :2rt.
22. In 100 sets of 10 tosses ofan unbiased coin, how many cases do you expect to get atleast 7
heads.

23. A sample of 900 members is found to have a mean of 3.4 cms, can it be reasonably
regarded as a simple sample from a large population with mean 3.2 cms and SD 2.3 cms.

24. In the usual notation of a (M/Nf/l):(oolFIFO) queue system if ?' :l2lhr and p :244, a O
(i) The average waiting time of a customer in the queue if he has to wait
(iD The probability that the number of customers in the system exceeds 3.
,)\
If the initial state probability distribution of a Markov chain p(0)=[1,1)-O the tpm of
\4'4)
(r 0)
the chain is I t t lf-a the probability distribution ofthe chain after 2 steps.
[z z)
26. Find the MGF of exponential distibution and hence find its mean and variance.

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27. A random sample of 400 mangoes was taken from a big consignment and 40 were found to
be bad. Prove ttrat the percentage of bad mangoes in the consignment will, Iie between 5.5
and 14.5.

PART-C(5x 12=60 Marks)

Answer ALL Questions

The probability disfiibution of a discrete RV X is given below

x: 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
p(x): k 3k 5k 7k 9k llk 13k 15k l7k
Find
(i) k
(ii) P(0<x<6)
(iiD P(X < 3)
(iv) P(1.5<X<4.5/X>2)
(v) E(X\.
(oR)
b. For the number of points X on a die, find by using Chebychev's inequality
P{x -E(x)lr2.s}.

lx for0<x<1
ii' Th. probability distribution tunction of a continuous RV X is ,f(r) -)Z* l< x <2
Tor
t-
l0 for x>2
Compute the cumulative distribution function of X.

29. a. A and B shoot independently until each has hit his own target. The probabilities of their

hitting the target at each shot are l*a

57 I respectively. Find the probability that B will

require more shots than A.

(oR)
b. In an examination it is laid down that a student passes if he secures 30 percent or more
marks. He is placed in the first, second or third division according as he secures 60Yo or
more marks, between 45% and 60% marks and marks between 30% md 45% respectively.
He gets distinction in case he secures 80% or more marks. It is noticed from failed result
that 10Yo of the students failed in the examination, whereas 5Yo of them obtained
distinction. Calculate the percentage of students placed in the second division (Assume
normal distribution of marks).

30. a- Two independent samples of rats chosen among a group of rats had the following increase
in weights when fed on 2 different diets. Can you say that the mean increase in weight
differs sigrificantly
Diet A: 96 88 97 89 92 95 90
DietB: 112 80 98 100 84 82 89 95 100 96

(oR)
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b. For the data in the following table, test for independence between a person's ability in
mathematics and interest in Economics.
Ability in mathematics
Low Average Hish
lnterest in Low 63 42 15
Economics Average 58 6t 31
Hish t4 47 29

3 1. a. The customers arrive ATM machine of a bank according to a Poisson process at an

at the
average rate of l5lh, It is known that the avErage time taken by each customer is an
exponential random variable with mean 2 minutes, Find the following
(0 The probability that an arriving customer will find the ATM machine occupied
(ii) Average number of customers in the queue
(iiD Average waiting time in the system
(iv) The bank has the policy of installing additional ATM machines if customers
wait at ar average of 3 or more minutes in the queue. Find the average arrival
rate of customers required to justifu au additional ATM machine.

(oR)
b. A stenographer is attached to 5 offrces for whom she perfonns stenographic work. She gets
call from the offices at the rate of 4 per hour and takes on the average 10 min to attend to
each call. If arrival rate is Poisson and service time exponential frnd
(i) The average number of waiting calls
(ii) The average waiting time for an a:riving call and
(iii) The average time an arriving call spends in the system.

32. a. T\etpm of a Markov chain {X,,n > 0}having tfuee states 0, I and 2 is
lo.z 0.3 o.sl
p tt
- I o.t 0.6 o.: l.
rne initial disribution is given by ptor = (0.5 0.3 0.2)frnd
Lo.4 0.3 o.3l
(i) P(x, -21
(ii) P(X3=3,X2=2,Xt=l,X0=2).
(oR)
b. A man either drives a cax or catches a bus to go to office each day. He never goes to 2 days
in a row by bus but ifhe drives one day, then the next day he is just as likely to drive again
as he is to travel by bus. Now suppose that on the fust day of the week, the man tossed a
fair dice and drove to work if and only if a 6 appeared. Find
(i) The probability that he takes a bus on the fourth day
(ii) The probability that he tavels by bus in the long run.

*****

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(oR) Reg. No.

b. Buses arrive at a specified stop at 15 minute intervals starting at 7 a-m, that is, they arrive
at'7, 7 .15,7 ,30,7 .45 and so on. If a passenger arrives at a stop at a random time that is
nniformly distributed between 7 and7.30, furd the probability that he waits for B.Tech. DEGREE EXAMINATION, NO\IEMBER 2016
(i) Less than 5 minutes for a bus Fourth Semester
(ii) Moe than 10 minutes for a bus.

30. a A simple sample of heights of 6400 English men has a mean of 170 cm and a S.D of MA10l4 - PROBABILITY AND QIIEITING THEORY
(For the candidates admixed during the academic year 2013 - 2014 and 2014 -2015)
6.4 cm, while a simple sample of heights of 1600 Americans has a mean of 172 cm and a (Statistical tables to be permitted)
S.D of 6.3 cm. Do the data indicate that Americans are on the average, taller than the Note:
Englishmen. (i) Part - A should be answered in OMR sheet within first 45 minutes and OMR sheet should be handed
over to hall invigilator at the end of 45ft minute.
(oR) (ii) Part - B and Part - C should be answered in answer booklet.
b. The following data is collected on two characters. Based on this, can you say that there is
no relation between smoking and literary? Time: Three Hours Max. Marks: 100
Smokers Non Smokers
Literates 83 57 PART-A(20 xl=20 Marks)
Illiterates 45 68 Answer ALL Questions
31. a. Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to be Poisson with an average time of 12
minutes between one arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is assumed to be 1. A random variable X has the following probability function
distributed exponentially with mean 4 minutes. x 0 I 23 4
(i) Find the average number of persons waiting in the system. p(x) k/2 W4 k W4 W2
(ii) Estimate the fraction of the day when the phone will be in use. The value ofK is equal to
(iii) What is the probability that a person arriving at the booth will have to wait in the (A) 0.1 (B) 0.2
queue? (c) 0.3 (D) 0.4
(iv) What is the average length of the queue that forms from time to time?
2. Which of the following random variable is not discrete?
(oR) (A) Thepriceofalitreofmilk (B) Thenumberofboysinthefamily
b. The local one -person barber shop can accommodate a maximum of 5 people at a time (C) The volume of petrol used by a (D) The number of children in the family who
(4 waiting and I getting hair --cut). Customers arrive according to a Poisson distribution family eachweek watch TV
with mean 5 per hour. The barber cuts hair at an average rate of 4 per hour
3. A random variable X is such that its mean is 4 and its standard deviation is 3. E()P) is equal
(i) What percentage of fime is the barber idle? to
(ii) What fraction of the potential customers are turned away? (A) (B) s
(iii) What is the expected number of customers waiting for a hair --cut? (c) 7
1
(D) 2s
(iv) How much time can a customer expect to spend in the barber shop?
?? 4'
Jz" o 4. The rft moment about origin is denoted by
(A) Vr'
1
A gambler has Rs.2l. He bets Re 1 at a time and wins Re I with probabilitf j. He stons (B) tlt
playing if he loses Rs 2 or wins Rs 4.
(C) [r.{ (D) Fr-l
(i) What is the tpm of the related Markov chain? 5. The mean of the binomial distribution is
(ii) What is the probability ttrat he has lost his money at the end of 4 ptays? (A) np (B)
J"p
(oR)
(C) npq (D) ,{"pq
b. Find the nahre of the states of the Markov chain with the tpm.
6. The moment generating firnction of the geometric distribution with probability function
012 pg*-l,x :L, 2, 3,. , .. . , is
0t
(o r 2\ (A) pe, (B) qe'
0 !l
I

r-rl1
12 2l
(C) pe' (D) t- qe'
1t 1- q"'
"[o 1 o)
I

7. Variance of the Poisson distribution is

Also furd he steady -state distribution of the Markov chain. (A) 12 (B) 7,+1
(c) )," (D) 1
***** ---;-

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8. The probability density fi.rnc.tion of the uniform distributioir defined in the interval (a" b) is PART - B (5 x 4: 20 Marks)
(A) 1 (B) i Alswer AI,{Y FM Questions
a-b a+b 21. Given the random variable X with density function
(c) I CD) I - -- <l'
l2x.o <x :
b-a a? +b2 "f
(*) - I :-'-. . Find the probabilify density tunction of Y 8X3.
Iu, elsewhere
9. The rejection ofthe null hypothesis when it is correct is called )1 X is a normal variate with rnean 30 aad S.D 5. Find
(A) Type I enor (B) Type II error (i) P(26<X <40)
(C) Type III enor (D) Type IV error
(ii) P(x >4s)
10. One-tailed or two tailed test depends upon the nature of the 23. The fatality rate of typhoid patients is believed lo be 17 .26%o. In a certain year 640 patients
(A) Null hypothesis (B) Alternative hypothesis
(C) Level of significance (D) Critical region suffering from typhoid rvere treated in a metropolitan hospitat and only 63 patients died.
Can you consider the hospital efficient?
I 1. F test is used to test the equaiity of the
(A) Mean (B) Mode 24. ln the usual notation of a l(M / M / l) : (a / FIFO)I queue system if l=12 per hour and
(C) Median @) Variance 1t.=24 per hour,find the average number of customers ia the system and in the queue.
12. X' test of goodness of fit is based on the condition 25. The tpm of a Markov chain with three states 1, 2, 3 is
(A) 14 =Eo (B) IE, * Io, JI
0
(c) zEi>zoi (D) 14 <r0, 44
11
P- 42 I
13. The
(A)
utilization factor for a system represents
The steady state average waiting (B) The probability that one is in the system i
.J 1
time 0
(C) The probabilify that the service @) The average number of customers in the 44
facility is being used queue and the iaitial state distribution of the chain is P{d-J-- i} -L ,i = 1;2,3f,rnd P { Xz = 2l .
14. Single server Poisson queue with inf,rnite capacrty of the Markov model is 26. A fair die is tossed 720 times. Use Chebycheffls in equalrty to find a lower bound for the
(A) t(M / M tt):(a / FIFO)) (B) KM/M/1):(k/FIFo)l probability of getting 100 to 140 sixes.
(C) l(M /M /S):(co /FIFO)I (D\ l(M / M /t):(k t FIFo))
27. If the probability that an applicant for a driver's licecse will pass the road test on any given
15. The arrival pattem in queuing theory follows trial is 0.8, what is the probability that he will finally pass the test
(A) Binomial distribution @) Normal distribution (i) On the fourth trial
(C) Geometricdistribution (D) Poissondistribution (ii) [n fewer than 4 trials.
16. The probability of n customers at time t +At is given by
PART - C (5 xl?:60 Marks)
(A) PnQ + Lt) (B) P,(t - Lr) Answer ALL Questions
(C) P"(t) @) P"(l+Ar) 28. a. A random variable X has the following probability distribution
I 7. A stochastic matrix P is said to be a regular mahix if all the entries of P' are x: -2-1 0 12 3
(A) Negative (B) Regular p(x) 0.1 k 0.2 2k 0.3 3k
(C) Positive (D) Symmetric (i) Find k
(ii) Evaluate P(X<2)
18. The state i is said to be periodic if (iiD P(-2<X<2)
(A) d, -1 (B) 4<0 (iv) Find the cumulative distribution function of X.
(C) di =0 (D) di >1 (oR)
19. In Markov chain pm stands for
A continuous random variable X
b. - lu(2
has pdff (x) - x), 0 < x < 2.
(A) Transportation matrix (B) Transition probability matrix (i) Find k
(C) Transpose matrix (D) Transition power matrix (ii) rn moment about origin
(iii) Find the first for central moments.
20. A non null persistent and aperiodic state is called 29. a Fit a binomial distribution for the following data.
(A) Periodic (B) Ergodic x:01 2 3 456Total
(C) Reducible @) kreducible f: 5 18 28 12 7 6 4 80
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